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If he manages to stay healthy through the first half of the season or so I think he could be a buy from a team that's out of contention. Pretty decent chance he's playing somewhere else next year and 10-12 games of McFadden for the next few years is worth quite a bit if he's in a good situation.
A pretty valid assumption.
I don't agree with those assertions. Go to the Russell Wilson owner and offer DMC or Demarco Murray for him and see how far you get.
Pinning your hopes to one player in a startup is dangerous.
He is a Hold until he does well and then he is a Sell. I am not optimistic about him long term because he has so much trouble staying on the field and he is the sort of back who needs good blocking to produce.
I should add that the easiest move in dynasty this year is going to be getting a 27 yo elite RB near the trade deadline.
I don't think you can say it's valid to assume that Dalton, Tannehill, or Freeman won't step up. Josh Freeman was remarkable in his second season, and has shown flashes since then. Dalton has ranked 15th and 12th in his two seasons (granted: inflated by the fact that he played 16 games), is on the upslope of his career, and will be throwing to A.J. Green for the next decade (having an elite WR has worked out well for Stafford). Tannehill had a fantastic season for a rookie QB (non-Luck/Wilson/Griffin/Newton division), and is a potentially elite rusher. I would say the odds of all three hitting are basically zero. I'd also say the odds of none of the three hitting are much closer to zero. Especially if you throw in other names (Sam Bradford, E.J. Manuel, etc). Some QBs not currently in the top 8 are going to step up big and force their way into the top 8. This will force out some of the guys currently there.
Marshall is a great player, but he's definitely a tier or two behind Demaryius for dynasty purposes. It all boils down to age. A 25 year old superstar is worth more than a 29 year old superstar. Not only because the functional value is higher, but also because he has a much longer window of time before his trade value bottoms out. People don't want to pay stud prices for a 29-30 year old and that's pretty much that.
You're right. It's not groundbreaking stuff at all. Just a long-winded way of saying buy low and sell high.No offense, but this isn't exactly eye opening stuff. If you do a good job predicting the future, you'll do well in FF.Yeah, I've had a few over the years. Some where I was on the good end and some where I was on the bad end.
I've seen a number of these over the years. One involved Maroney & a pick for Calvin, another involved Palmer for Brees, and another involved Selvin Young for Greg Jennings. My personal best was sending Tom Brady during his 50 TD season to a contender for rookie Marshawn Lynch (his value was high at the time) and bench-warmer Aaron Rodgers.
Big opportunities like that are hard to spot and sometimes even harder to take. You have to be willing to part with a guy at his peak and be confident it's the right move.
In the only league I won last year, I would not have done so if I hadn't made preemptive overpays for Cecil Shorts and Demaryius Thomas as soon as they flashed. I think you have to keep an ear to the ground and pounce as soon as you get a sense that a player is primed for a value spike. The downside is that you're occasionally going to get stuck with a Jonathan Dwyer or a Jon Baldwin. Knowing when to push and when to pull is an art. I haven't mastered it, but it's something that I aim for.
There's no doubt that IF you can make the proper assessments, the inertia of the consensus is there to be exploited.
His ADP is 1.5 rounds higher.
There's issues with each one of those names, be it upside, injury risk, or age. Possible exceptions of Cruz and Cobb. Half those names have the same "drive it off the showroom" depreciation as DMC and Murray. I don't think the QB do. Possible exceptions of Ryan and Stafford.
That's one way to interpret value but with any trade you have to consider replacement players and how it affects their roster, lineup, depth.
There's issues with Russell Wilson and Colin Kaepernick, too. Let's start with the fact that we're all putting them in the Hall of Fame based on basically a half-season of play (Billy Volek and Tyler Thigpen both say hi). Let's pair with the fact that they play on teams with ridiculous offensive lines, running games, and defenses (Troy Aikman says "what's up"). Finally, to bring it home, let's end with the fact that even the most optimistic supporters (within reason) only consider them mediocre-or-worse fantasy QB1s. Of the 36 sets of dynasty rankings in the Fantasy Pros experts aggregate, only three rankers have Colin Kaepernick higher than QB6 (Ryan McDowell and Tefertiller have him 4th, Wood has him 5th). Only four out of 36 rankers have Russell Wilson higher than QB6 (Charles Murphy, Eric Dickens, Chad Scott, and Ryan McDowell all have him 5th).
Congratulations on comparing these guys to Thigpen (he of 1 career victory as starter) let alone Volek.
2013 projections prove nothing for a 2nd year QB. More so when both are limited due to injury to WR1.
Inherently there are less issues with QBs. If your stance is you're not comfortable projecting these 2 as long term QB1, that's fine, but I disagree. By a lot.
I don't have an answer, just a bit of a rewording to the question. If you could have J Thomas now (taking up a roster spot and such, but you have have him for dynasty starting now), or if you could wait till the offseason to grab the #1 rookie TE for dynasty (we'll assume that's ASJ, and we'll assume that it will cost you a mid to late 1st round rookie pick), who would you take?
Value over replacement. Any advantage that exists throughout a position should not be considered when comparing value outside of position.
I'd take Cameron over him too, right now. And Witten, still. I think Witten has a long career.
Maybe I am not understanding. But are you asking if I'd rather have Thomas now, for free, or ASJ a year from now for a mid-first? I think you take Thomas. In a vacuum, I think I'd still go ASJ, but I'm a big fan.
Sorry, I mean would you rather trade that mid-late 2014 1st for Thomas now, or hold that pick and use it on ASJ ~10 months from now. So the same "cost" for the two players, but you can use Thomas now if you needed to.
Thanks for the comments on this. Even if all of the players named are ahead of him, he is TE8. And there arguably isn't much separation between him and some of these other names. So he could easily be viewed as a top 5 TE right now.
Personally, I'd bet that Manning plays at least until he breaks all of Favre's passing records, which should happen during the 2015 season. Manning's greatness (Brees and Brady also) is about 95% above the neck, so I'm guessing he'll be able to play at close to peak levels pretty much as long as he still wants to (ie as long as Denver is a Super Bowl contender). It also doesn't hurt that defenders are barely allowed to give the QB a mean look anymore...
Agree with this 100%. In 1 QB leagues right now there are more viable QB1s than there are teams -- I'd much rather bargain shop for a Romo / Dalton combo for a fraction of the price a Wilson, Kaep, RGIII, Luck, Cam will command.
I agree. I would hope we see an update soon. I think he's a TE1, at least, based on potential and situation. I wouldn't be shocked if he ends up lower at the end of the season - as I won't be shocked by a handful of 2/25/0 lines. But, again, the upside is there.
A lot depends on format - but, assuming it is standard PPR, I'd likely hold onto the first, ATM. Not that Thomas isn't worth it - but I think you can find TE production/upside by throwing a rock right now. I'd rather Fleener for a late 2nd than Thomas for a mid first, for example. The first is also more stable. If ASJ doesn't prove to be worth the pick, you're not commited yet, and someone will be when you're on the clock.
I'm in a 10 teamer but already have Cook and Finley. J Thomas was the #1 waiver pick this morning and I'm sure I could dangle out a late 2014 1st to the guy who got him and add him. I'd do it more for a value perspective, as I already have one of my 2014 1sts earmarked for ASJ (I have a few 1sts, also earmarked Clowney). I guess I'll just hold the 1 for later.
I just updated my rankings, so I was thinking about this. Obviously Gronk and Graham are both no-brainers. Witten and Vernon are both a lot older, but they're so much more proven and productive that I'd still prefer them, especially in PPR. I'd also take Eifert and Cook- I think they're both equal or better talents in equal or better situations.
So in other words the question is "If you were in a Devy league, would you prefer to have JT or ASJ?"
Most staffers only update about once a month during the season. The guys who have updated since the Denver game have him 15th (Grant), 9th (me), 21st (Holloway), and 8th (Parsons), although like I said, I think the guys from 7 to 9 are basically totally interchangeable based on scoring system and team composition. Anyway, that averages out to 13th, which is much more reasonable.
Amen. There really aren't all that many players who might be long-term high-quality starters. When you get a shot at one, don't miss.
Mine is pikcing Housler over Cameron. Well, this year anyway (well, so far anyway).
Oh, I've been wrong about players before. I'm pretty used to that, by now- it's an unavoidable part of the hobby. During week one of the 2011 season, I was on Twitter saying Jimmy Graham didn't look fluid or creative to me, and that his upside was Owen Daniels. Obviously it sucks, but what can you do?Mine is pikcing Housler over Cameron. Well, this year anyway (well, so far anyway).
Well, yeah. But that matters an absolute TON. Look at a guy like Vernon Davis, who is an all-time great physical specimen at any position. Put him with Manning, Brees, Brady in a passing offense and he's likely being talked about as the greatest TE ever by now. With a pile of crap QBs in a power rushing attack he's been fantasy crap more often than not.
Ryan vs. Eli was 5 ppg difference last year. Basically nothing. About the same as Lynch vs. Shonn Greene, and those two players are basically the same.
There is less variability at top X QB year to year than other positions. But QB as a whole is variable. Many QB fail, just look at the 11 draft class. Mediocre QB seldom become stud QB.
I don't own Thomas in any leagues.
Cleveland/Chud is a great situation for Cameron and the main thing that gives him relevance. Swap teams for Hous/Cam or Celek/Cam or BUnicorn/Cam and you swap value too. Weeden is a bad NFL QB but he'll be a decent stat accumulator.
Disagree strongly. I think week one is going to be totally atypical for Cleveland in terms of run/pass ratio and target distribution (once Gordon is back). In terms of dynasty outlook I'm not counting on Weeden / Chud to be around more than a year or two, nor am I counting on anything decent in their place moving forward.
Just curious - do guys like Marlon Brown, Kenny Stills, and Quinton Patton really not belong in your top 90 WRs or did you not spend any time on the bottom half of the rankings?
Vernon Davis is a great athlete. Vernon Davis is not a great receiver. There's more to his lack of incredible stats than bad QB play. He has holes as a player. He's relatively short for a TE. He's not good in jump ball or contested situations. He's dangerous after the catch, but not as fluid or crafty in his routes as you'd expect. His one great quality as a receiver is his ability to outrun safeties and linebackers on seam routes.
I expect CLE to target TE1 more than the teams mentioned (ARI, PHI, CHI) and a lot of others. Cameron's longterm outlook has more to do with his football skill level and if he develops as a player than Chud's presence. That is, he will either be entrenched as a starter or exposed as a fraud by that point. I would question his skill level as a reason to sell far before situation. Chud's presence just makes him preferable to guys like the ones I mentioned short term.
And I was just about to get on that train too. I think we're borderline entering a long, LONG line of TE production where there's not a whole lot of distinction between the top and bottom in terms of talents. Look at the redraft space for this year - the play was either pay up for Gronk or Graham, or sit tight a throw a couple guys at the wall.
I totally agree that Cameron is preferable to Housler, etc. I was disagreeing primarily to ranking him ahead of Julius Thomas, who is comparable as a player in a vacuum, but is currently sitting in almost as good a situation as is possible.
That's the big question with these two. At the moment it looks like they're close in talent. 9-10 weeks down the road, it could be a different story. My hunch is that JT is more of a ho-hum talent thriving because of the situation and that Cameron is more of a genuine talent capable of thriving under any reasonable circumstance. With that being the case, I'm going to take Cameron ahead of JT even if he's on a worse team and might score fewer points this particular season. Fringe talents ebb and flow with the whims of their QB and the quality of their situation, but a more enduring talent (even one who isn't on the Gonzo/Peterson/Calvin level) will always be useful throughout the highs and lows.
There is less variability due to factors that apply to the QB position itself. I don't think it's wise to consider that when comparing across positions.
