Dynasty Rankings (10 Viewers)

[EBF]

That seems to be the common belief and I'm not totally sure what it's based on

He's not as polished and doesn't track the ball, run routes, or high point as well as the other 2, who have better body control. He's on par with Dez, once the ball is in his hands, but up to that point, he's not the WR that the other 2 are.

You can say he isn't. I can say he is. There's no way to "prove" it, so I'm not that interested in having the debate.

He has been filling up the stat sheet as well as either player for two years running. Arguably been the best of the trio in terms of performance.

So people can say he isn't as good for whatever reason they want to believe, but the numbers are there for him at the end of the day. And yes Manning helps with that, but it's not easy to average 10+ yards per target on 140+ targets for two years running. The guy is a sick talent and I think people underestimate his ability just a little bit. I actually liked Dez a little more when they were coming into the league, but having seen both of them in the NFL for a few years I'd actually suggest that Thomas is a slightly better version of Dez. Green is a different style of player, but doesn't have anywhere near the same physical gifts. He's more of a technician. Like a stretched out version of Reggie Wayne. He's not someone who scares DBs with power or speed.

 

[ConnSKINS26]

I think that if DT had the jump-ball redzone prowess of Dez he'd be the best WR in the league.

 

[Concept Coop]

I think that if DT had the jump-ball redzone prowess of Dez he'd be the best WR in the league.

Calvin?

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Wonder how Decker's #s would look if he were the one drawing the other team's best corner + help? Comparing #2s to #1s is a bad idea IMO.

 

[ConnSKINS26]

I think that if DT had the jump-ball redzone prowess of Dez he'd be the best WR in the league.

Calvin?

I think Dez is probably only 2nd to Calvin as a jump-ball specialist/redzone WR (which is pretty amazing when you consider that he's 6'2") so if Demaryius had that going for him as well as his other attributes, I might prefer him to Calvin. It would be close enough that I could easily see it being argued, whereas right now I don't think there is an argument for anyone vs. Calvin (as an NFL WR, not fantasy WR).

 

[Concept Coop]

I think that if DT had the jump-ball redzone prowess of Dez he'd be the best WR in the league.

Calvin?

I think Dez is probably only 2nd to Calvin as a jump-ball specialist/redzone WR (which is pretty amazing when you consider that he's 6'2") so if Demaryius had that going for him as well as his other attributes, I might prefer him to Calvin. It would be close enough that I could easily see it being argued, whereas right now I don't think there is an argument for anyone vs. Calvin (as an NFL WR, not fantasy WR).

I personally feel that Thomas, with Dez's in air ability, is just another Dez, whom I consider a distance 2nd to Calvin as an NFL WR.

Aside from having another gear, I don't see anything that Thomas does better than Dez. The speed trade of is balanced by strength,routes, etc.

 

[ConnSKINS26]

I think that if DT had the jump-ball redzone prowess of Dez he'd be the best WR in the league.

Calvin?

I think Dez is probably only 2nd to Calvin as a jump-ball specialist/redzone WR (which is pretty amazing when you consider that he's 6'2") so if Demaryius had that going for him as well as his other attributes, I might prefer him to Calvin. It would be close enough that I could easily see it being argued, whereas right now I don't think there is an argument for anyone vs. Calvin (as an NFL WR, not fantasy WR).

I personally feel that Thomas, with Dez's in air ability, is just another Dez, whom I consider a distance 2nd to Calvin as an NFL WR.

Aside from having another gear, I don't see anything that Thomas does better than Dez. The speed trade of is balanced by strength,routes, etc.

You might be right. That extra gear is what would make such a player so dangerous, though. It would basically make DT a young Calvin, but two inches shorter. That's the only player I can really imagine approaching Calvin.

I guess that just shows how good Calvin really is, when we're talking about basically blending the best attributes of two other top-5 NFL WR's just to approach Calvin.

 

[Concept Coop]

Wonder how Decker's #s would look if he were the one drawing the other team's best corner + help? Comparing #2s to #1s is a bad idea IMO.

Neither guy sees double teams and I think the #1 vs #2 corner thing is overplayed, personally. A handful of game changers as the exception, of course (Hi, Richard!).

However, I am only using their stats to point out what I feel is a double standard, not to argue that Decker is as talented as Thomas.

 

[Concept Coop]

I guess that just shows how good Calvin really is, when we're talking about basically blending the best attributes of two other top-5 NFL WR's just to approach Calvin.

No doubt about that. When you consider the attention he gets, the lack of weapons around him...####. We're talking about an all-time great, and, potentially, the 2nd best WR in NFL history.

 

[ConnSKINS26]

I guess that just shows how good Calvin really is, when we're talking about basically blending the best attributes of two other top-5 NFL WR's just to approach Calvin.

No doubt about that. When you consider the attention he gets, the lack of weapons around him...####. We're talking about an all-time great, and, potentially, the 2nd best WR in NFL history.

Yeah, it'll be borderline impossible for Calvin to have the longevity to even approach Rice's numbers, but it's fun to dream about watching him for that long.

 

[voiceofunreason]

Really? I think it's primarily that Decker seems like a guy who has seen the benefit of Manning throwing the ball to him. Without Manning as his QB, I have limited confidence that Decker would be even in the WR 13-24 range. Thus, seeing him at WR 25 seems about right to me.

His production has been very close to Thomas'. Are you worried about Thomas post-Manning?

I view Thomas as one of the handful of most physically gifted WRs in the NFL, so no, I'm not. He put up numbers down the stretch with Tim freaking Tebow.

Decker put up numbers with Tebow, too.

Not really, Decker had 600 yards and started pretty much the whole year. DT had over 700 yards in his last 7 games with Tebow.

 

[Concept Coop]

Not really, Decker had 600 yards and started pretty much the whole year. DT had over 700 yards in his last 7 games with Tebow.

Sure, once Thomas replaced Decker as the #1, Decker was done producing. Tebow was completing about 10 passes a game and not looking past his first read. But when Decker was the #1 target, he was putting up WR2 numbers, including 8 TDs to Thomas' 4.

 

[Bob Magaw]

Where does Percy Harvin rank in dynasty?

He has barely played in a season and a half, but was putting up career high numbers the first half of 2012. Hopefully the hip injury isn't chronic. Too bad we didn't get to see how much SEA might feature him.

It seems like he should be older, but he is just 25 (turns 26 in May).

 

[Concept Coop]

Where does Percy Harvin rank in dynasty?

He has barely played in a season and a half, but was putting up career high numbers the first half of 2012. Hopefully the hip injury isn't chronic. Too bad we didn't get to see how much SEA might feature him.

It seems like he should be older, but he is just 25 (turns 26 in May).

I think he's in the WR2 range now. I'd take guys like Allen, Brown, Jeffery, Cruz, Marshall and Cobb over him, in addition to the obvious guys. I think he's in the next tier with guys like Patterson, Garcon, Nelson, Decker, Crabtree, etc. And honestly, I feel he's a bit of a gamble at that price, too, but the upside is there.

 

[Bob Magaw]

Where does Percy Harvin rank in dynasty?

He has barely played in a season and a half, but was putting up career high numbers the first half of 2012. Hopefully the hip injury isn't chronic. Too bad we didn't get to see how much SEA might feature him.

It seems like he should be older, but he is just 25 (turns 26 in May).

I think he's in the WR2 range now. I'd take guys like Allen, Brown, Jeffery, Cruz, Marshall and Cobb over him, in addition to the obvious guys. I think he's in the next tier with guys like Patterson, Garcon, Nelson, Decker, Crabtree, etc. And honestly, I feel he's a bit of a gamble at that price, too, but the upside is there.

Is this where you had him at the end of the 2012 season, or is that partly a downgrade for pretty much missing all of 2013?

 

[ConnSKINS26]

Where does Percy Harvin rank in dynasty?

He has barely played in a season and a half, but was putting up career high numbers the first half of 2012. Hopefully the hip injury isn't chronic. Too bad we didn't get to see how much SEA might feature him.

It seems like he should be older, but he is just 25 (turns 26 in May).

I think he's in the WR2 range now. I'd take guys like Allen, Brown, Jeffery, Cruz, Marshall and Cobb over him, in addition to the obvious guys. I think he's in the next tier with guys like Patterson, Garcon, Nelson, Decker, Crabtree, etc. And honestly, I feel he's a bit of a gamble at that price, too, but the upside is there.

Is this where you had him at the end of the 2012 season, or is that partly a downgrade for pretty much missing all of 2013?

I think it's probably a combo of that and the influx of great young talent at the WR position since that time in 2012. It's a lot harder to squeeze a question mark like Harvin in when you already have so many great options with less risk and uncertainty.

 

[Kitrick Taylor]

Where does Percy Harvin rank in dynasty?

He has barely played in a season and a half, but was putting up career high numbers the first half of 2012. Hopefully the hip injury isn't chronic. Too bad we didn't get to see how much SEA might feature him.

It seems like he should be older, but he is just 25 (turns 26 in May).

I think he's in the WR2 range now. I'd take guys like Allen, Brown, Jeffery, Cruz, Marshall and Cobb over him, in addition to the obvious guys. I think he's in the next tier with guys like Patterson, Garcon, Nelson, Decker, Crabtree, etc. And honestly, I feel he's a bit of a gamble at that price, too, but the upside is there.

Is this where you had him at the end of the 2012 season, or is that partly a downgrade for pretty much missing all of 2013?

I think if you haven't downgraded him since the end of 2012, you are just sticking your head in the sand. Take your pick of his injury issues. As Connskins mentioned, tons of young talent coming into the league at that position. Why take the guy with a proven track record of missing games? He's been in the league 5 years, and his best season by far is 1312/8 combined rushing/receiving. The next best year is 975/6. Sure maybe he puts it all together and becomes a top 10 guy regularly. Problem is, the only way you are getting him is to pay top 10 prices.

 

[Bob Magaw]

Where does Percy Harvin rank in dynasty?

He has barely played in a season and a half, but was putting up career high numbers the first half of 2012. Hopefully the hip injury isn't chronic. Too bad we didn't get to see how much SEA might feature him.

It seems like he should be older, but he is just 25 (turns 26 in May).

I think he's in the WR2 range now. I'd take guys like Allen, Brown, Jeffery, Cruz, Marshall and Cobb over him, in addition to the obvious guys. I think he's in the next tier with guys like Patterson, Garcon, Nelson, Decker, Crabtree, etc. And honestly, I feel he's a bit of a gamble at that price, too, but the upside is there.

Is this where you had him at the end of the 2012 season, or is that partly a downgrade for pretty much missing all of 2013?

I think it's probably a combo of that and the influx of great young talent at the WR position since that time in 2012. It's a lot harder to squeeze a question mark like Harvin in when you already have so many great options with less risk and uncertainty.

No doubt Antonio Brown, Alshon Jeffery and Keenan Allen exploded since than, and not sure how many WRs might have dropped off in that same time frame?

 

[Kitrick Taylor]

Where does Percy Harvin rank in dynasty?

He has barely played in a season and a half, but was putting up career high numbers the first half of 2012. Hopefully the hip injury isn't chronic. Too bad we didn't get to see how much SEA might feature him.

It seems like he should be older, but he is just 25 (turns 26 in May).

I think he's in the WR2 range now. I'd take guys like Allen, Brown, Jeffery, Cruz, Marshall and Cobb over him, in addition to the obvious guys. I think he's in the next tier with guys like Patterson, Garcon, Nelson, Decker, Crabtree, etc. And honestly, I feel he's a bit of a gamble at that price, too, but the upside is there.

Is this where you had him at the end of the 2012 season, or is that partly a downgrade for pretty much missing all of 2013?

I think it's probably a combo of that and the influx of great young talent at the WR position since that time in 2012. It's a lot harder to squeeze a question mark like Harvin in when you already have so many great options with less risk and uncertainty.

No doubt Antonio Brown, Alshon Jeffery and Keenan Allen exploded since than, and not sure how many WRs might have dropped off in that same time frame?

A lot has happened since the end of 2012. Josh Gordon happened. Even though Julio missed a good chunk of 2013, he became the true #1 over Roddy. Even though Randall Cobb broke his leg, I've moved him ahead of Percy. Would you rather have Cordarrelle? He's shown nearly as much explosiveness yet without the injury issues. I could go on and on. Percy was a top 10 guy last year. Jeter23's mock has him at WR21, and I don't think that's too far off.

 

[Bob Magaw]

Where does Percy Harvin rank in dynasty?

He has barely played in a season and a half, but was putting up career high numbers the first half of 2012. Hopefully the hip injury isn't chronic. Too bad we didn't get to see how much SEA might feature him.

It seems like he should be older, but he is just 25 (turns 26 in May).

I think he's in the WR2 range now. I'd take guys like Allen, Brown, Jeffery, Cruz, Marshall and Cobb over him, in addition to the obvious guys. I think he's in the next tier with guys like Patterson, Garcon, Nelson, Decker, Crabtree, etc. And honestly, I feel he's a bit of a gamble at that price, too, but the upside is there.

Is this where you had him at the end of the 2012 season, or is that partly a downgrade for pretty much missing all of 2013?

I think if you haven't downgraded him since the end of 2012, you are just sticking your head in the sand. Take your pick of his injury issues. As Connskins mentioned, tons of young talent coming into the league at that position. Why take the guy with a proven track record of missing games? He's been in the league 5 years, and his best season by far is 1312/8 combined rushing/receiving. The next best year is 975/6. Sure maybe he puts it all together and becomes a top 10 guy regularly. Problem is, the only way you are getting him is to pay top 10 prices.

My question is how much he should be downgraded, and how much due to 2013, not that he shouldn't be downgraded.

He missed three of his first 48 games. But 22 of the last 32. He is obviously better value if he is more durable like the first three years, a lot less if he is as brittle and fragile as the past two. I'm not sure why he missed so much time due to the ankle injury in 2012, just from personal experience a nasty high ankle sprain can be as bad or worse than a break. The hip issue seemed kind of flukey. But there is a lot of uncertainty associated with him, no doubt. I hadn't tried to gauge his value in a while, which is why I asked.

Let me ask in a different way, where was he through the first half of 2012, and we could get a sense of how far he has fallen. I know Adam was extremely high on him this time last year (before the hip injury). I took him in a startup last Spring around WR10-12, right after Cobb (who I also would have taken before Harvin, partly just because of the age difference). Age is a key difference between owners, Marshall is four years older than Harvin, but perhaps the vast majority would still rank Marshall higher?

* I hadn't seen your latest response when writing this, looks like you answered some of the questions. I do think if he plays close to 16 games, he has a good chance to finish higher than WR21, so maybe that ranking is partly shaped by a pessimistic health forecast. I typically don't like to predict injuries or missed time on that basis. McFadden is an exception, as it seems like every year he misses significant time. That does describe Harvin in 2012-2013, but not 2009-2011. At 25, if the hip isn't a chronic, degenerative problem, it sounds like he could have upside. If the consensus emerges that he is closer to WR20 (not sure this is the case?) than WR10 (I agree he has dropped, just not sure how much), than it sounds like people will stop valuing him like and asking a WR10 price for him, so perhaps his value is still in flux if you think owners are still valuing him on the high end. It is true in my case, I own him in a few leagues and value him higher than WR20.

 

[Kitrick Taylor]

Where does Percy Harvin rank in dynasty?

He has barely played in a season and a half, but was putting up career high numbers the first half of 2012. Hopefully the hip injury isn't chronic. Too bad we didn't get to see how much SEA might feature him.

It seems like he should be older, but he is just 25 (turns 26 in May).

I think he's in the WR2 range now. I'd take guys like Allen, Brown, Jeffery, Cruz, Marshall and Cobb over him, in addition to the obvious guys. I think he's in the next tier with guys like Patterson, Garcon, Nelson, Decker, Crabtree, etc. And honestly, I feel he's a bit of a gamble at that price, too, but the upside is there.

Is this where you had him at the end of the 2012 season, or is that partly a downgrade for pretty much missing all of 2013?

I think if you haven't downgraded him since the end of 2012, you are just sticking your head in the sand. Take your pick of his injury issues. As Connskins mentioned, tons of young talent coming into the league at that position. Why take the guy with a proven track record of missing games? He's been in the league 5 years, and his best season by far is 1312/8 combined rushing/receiving. The next best year is 975/6. Sure maybe he puts it all together and becomes a top 10 guy regularly. Problem is, the only way you are getting him is to pay top 10 prices.

My question is how much he should be downgraded, and how much due to 2013, not that he shouldn't be downgraded.

He missed three of his first 48 games. But 22 of the last 32. He is obviously better value if he is more durable like the first three years, a lot less if he is as brittle and fragile as the past two. I'm not sure why he missed so much time due to the ankle injury in 2012, just from personal experience a nasty high ankle sprain can be as bad or worse than a break. The hip issue seemed kind of flukey. But there is a lot of uncertainty associated with him, no doubt. I hadn't tried to gauge his value in a while, which is why I asked.

Let me ask in a different way, where was he through the first half of 2012, and we could get a sense of how far he has fallen. I know Adam was extremely high on him this time last year (before the hip injury). I took him in a startup last Spring around WR10-12, right after Cobb (who I also would have taken before Harvin, partly just because of the age difference). Age is a key difference between owners, Marshall is four years older than , but perhaps the vast majority would still rank him higher?

For me he's in that mid WR2 category at this point. I don't think it would shock anybody if he turned in three straight years of top 10 production going forward. But I could say the same thing about a lot of WRs. Problem is there's only two guys that were highly productive in 2013 that are getting old. Andre Johnson and Vincent Jackson, and they aren't ancient by any means. We're getting to the point where there's so many quality options in pretty good situations at WR, that why would I trade for a guy with the injury risk of Harvin?

 

[thriftyrocker]

I don't think it would shock anybody if he turned in three straight years of top 10 production going forward. But I could say the same thing about a lot of WRs. Problem is there's only two guys that were highly productive in 2013 that are getting old. Andre Johnson and Vincent Jackson, and they aren't ancient by any means. We're getting to the point where there's so many quality options in pretty good situations at WR, that why would I trade for a guy with the injury risk of Harvin?

Let's go to a magical dream world where Percy Harvin is healthy for the next 8 years and never has another injury concern. He is a perennial top 5 WR in PPR. In production if not also in value. The only reason he isn't (still) a top 5 WR is because no one trusts him to be healthy and further there's stuff like this that just makes you think he won't play through mild injury. If we're saying look at Antonio Brown there's a lot of guys who can jump into the top 10 for a few years we're understating Harvin's talent or specialness. If it wasn't for the pain tolerance issue he would still be elite. Unfortunately because of that you have to treat him more like Blackmon than you did Andre Johnson when he couldn't finish a season. There's just a legit chance he's never the same player and he's going to Robert Smith us in a season or two. Regardless of ADP, seems like a guy go hard after in a long standing league. The upside is high, a lot different than the 20-25 other players who might crank out a decent run, and at some point the risk is worth the price.

 

[Tau837]

Decker's sophomore season, he had 20 catches for 270 yards and 4 TDs in his first four games with Orton. Tebow took over, and Decker ended up with 24 for 332 yards and 4 TDs in his final five games. It's hard to say that he would have continued on pace for 80 catches, 1080 yards and 16 TDs with a full season of Orton, but he had 85/1064/13 in his first full season with Manning and 87/1288/11 this year.

I acquired him in dynasty this year because I think that he has long term stud potential. Being third or fourth fiddle in the Broncos offense may have hurt him almost as much as playing with Manning helped him. If he ends up in a great situation next year, I think he's great huge trade value if you want to flip him, and if he ends up in a plus situation, I think he can be a top 15 WR for a long time. He's got 32 TDs in three years, he's got size, and he's been part of an offense that coordinators everywhere are trying to copy. Strong buy.

Yes, he has 32 TDs in 3 years, but that is 32 of a total of 112 TDs over that span. That's 29%. So he could easily go to a team that would limit his TD potential to single digits. He could still be valuable, of course, I just think his value is likely inflated a bit by many people (like bostonfred).

 

[EBF]

I think that if DT had the jump-ball redzone prowess of Dez he'd be the best WR in the league.

Calvin?

I think Dez is probably only 2nd to Calvin as a jump-ball specialist/redzone WR (which is pretty amazing when you consider that he's 6'2") so if Demaryius had that going for him as well as his other attributes, I might prefer him to Calvin. It would be close enough that I could easily see it being argued, whereas right now I don't think there is an argument for anyone vs. Calvin (as an NFL WR, not fantasy WR).

I personally feel that Thomas, with Dez's in air ability, is just another Dez, whom I consider a distance 2nd to Calvin as an NFL WR.

Aside from having another gear, I don't see anything that Thomas does better than Dez. The speed trade of is balanced by strength,routes, etc.

If one player is really better than another player, you'd expect to see some evidence of it in the statistics. Part of the reason why Jimmy Graham, Calvin Johnson, Adrian Peterson, and Peyton Manning are considered among the most talented players at their position is because their production has justified that opinion.

If you stack Dez's statistics alongside DT's, there isn't that big of a difference. Dez came out of the blocks slightly faster, but then again he didn't pop his Achilles as a rookie. DT came on very strong in the second half of 2011 (including playoffs) and has produced on par or better than him since.

Their stats over the last two seasons:

Bryant - 298 targets, 185 catches (62.1% conversion rate), 2615 yards, 25 TDs, 897 YAC (4.9 per catch)

Thomas - 284 targets, 186 catches (65.5% conversion rate), 2864 yards, 24 TDs, 1180 YAC (6.3 per catch)

If anything, Thomas has been a little better since both of these guys really broke out. He catches more of his targets, he averages more yards per catch, and he creates more yards after the catch. I know Dez had some injury issues that probably slowed him down in the second half of 2013 and I know Romo isn't quite as good as Manning, but I don't think there's much in their on-field performance to date that suggests Bryant is a better player. If that's the commonly held belief then my hunch is that it's just faulty subjective analysis.

That's without even getting into AJ Green, who's miles behind these guys from an efficiency standpoint. He's a much different player and he has a much worse QB than either of these two, but at the same time there isn't much support in his on-field performance for the idea that he's as effective as these guys. I think he'll probably have better seasons in the future if Cincy ever gets its QB situation sorted out, but he may be a little bit of a volume compiler whose FF totals inflate real life perceptions of his talent. Not totally unlike his former Georgia QB Stafford, although I think Green is much better.

I'm not even saying that Thomas is definitely better than these guys, but I do find it somewhat strange that it's almost taken as a given that they have more talent when in many ways he has been outperforming them for the past 2+ seasons. At some point the results should probably come to mean more than subjective opinions, although I understand that some weigh the Manning factor more heavily than others.

 

[jdoggydogg]

I think this thread just broke an internet record for the most posts about Justin Blackmon.

Just an observation.

 

[bostonfred]

Decker's sophomore season, he had 20 catches for 270 yards and 4 TDs in his first four games with Orton. Tebow took over, and Decker ended up with 24 for 332 yards and 4 TDs in his final five games. It's hard to say that he would have continued on pace for 80 catches, 1080 yards and 16 TDs with a full season of Orton, but he had 85/1064/13 in his first full season with Manning and 87/1288/11 this year.

I acquired him in dynasty this year because I think that he has long term stud potential. Being third or fourth fiddle in the Broncos offense may have hurt him almost as much as playing with Manning helped him. If he ends up in a great situation next year, I think he's great huge trade value if you want to flip him, and if he ends up in a plus situation, I think he can be a top 15 WR for a long time. He's got 32 TDs in three years, he's got size, and he's been part of an offense that coordinators everywhere are trying to copy. Strong buy.

Yes, he has 32 TDs in 3 years, but that is 32 of a total of 112 TDs over that span. That's 29%. So he could easily go to a team that would limit his TD potential to single digits. He could still be valuable, of course, I just think his value is likely inflated a bit by many people (like bostonfred).

What a misleading stat. Decker had four of ortons eight touchdowns in 2011, he caught 13 of 37 last year when it was just him and thomas, but he only caught 11 of 55 this year when he got crowded out by thomas, welker and thomas. So in three seasons as a starting wideout, he had half, over a third, and a fifth, and you're downgrading him for only catching 11 tds in a record setting season. Of course, 29% of most teams passing production is around 9 tds these days, so maybe that's not all bad. But he's got the size and experience to still have upside after that. I don't think he's a truly elite talent, but I think he's on the list of very good players who could put up a few elite seasons.

 

[Adam Harstad]

Blackmon and Nicks, to me, represent an interesting contrast of risk/reward proposals. I think Blackmon has higher upside, fewer questions about his ability, but significantly more risk due to his addiction/abuse/whatever issues. I don't even know if he's going to be playing next year, or when.

Nicks, on the other hand, is "safer" in that he'll be playing next year, but as greater questions about if he's still the same guy, or if he's just having his career (or at least the peak of his career) cut short due to the ongoing injuries. To add a little twist into it, he's also a FA and likely to go somewhere else, which further expands his range of up/down side.

Just thought it was an interesting comparison.

I agree with this. I think buying low on Blackmon is the way to go right now. I have him far ahead of Nicks based on talent alone.

I'm betting his head will be straight by opening day 2014.

Here's the only issue with this. I don't doubt Blackmon's talent, and the situation is likely to improve in 2014 due to a new QB being brough to town (I don't think anyone expects the Jags to go to war with Henne/Gabbert again). But we're in unchartered territory with Blackmon and the NFL. Who knows how Goodell handles this? If I recall, wasn't the suspension "indefinite" with a chance to apply for reinstatement in the future?

It's certainly possible that Blackmon has received the wake-up call loud and clear, but when does he actually get re-instated and allowed back on the field? That's a huge question mark, assuming the first issue (him getting his head on straight) is a go, which is also not a lock. Does anyone have any clarity on when he will potentially be re-instated?

With Nicks, he's certainly put up some ugly tape the past couple of seasons, and drew the ire of Coughlin after the season saying there were times Nicks didn't attack the ball like he had in the past. Part of it was likely due to conditioning as he missed a good chunk of training camp rehabbing yet another injury. I'd suspect part of it was also due to him trying to protect himself on a team headed nowhere. We've seen this before -- DeSean Jackson comes to mind specifically. I wouldn't completely write off Nicks given his age and production in the past. The injuries are concerning, sure. And perhaps he'll never be the same. Or perhaps he goes out and gets an incentive-laden deal and breaks out again, a la Jackson.

My understanding was that anyone in stage 3 of the substance abuse program (which we believed Justin Blackmon to be) would receive a mandatory 1-year suspension for any further violations. As a result, I was surprised to hear that Blackmon could apply for reinstatement before next season (although an ability to apply is not to be confused with a guarantee of success).

After this last season, I think there is a very strong probability that Justin Blackmon is an addict. Testing positive for something just four games after getting off a suspension for testing positive for something is a major red flag. I don't pretend to know Justin Blackmon, or that everyone is the same, but I know addiction is a ridiculously bad thing. The number of people who succeed at overcoming addiction is low. The number who do it without a single relapse is much lower, still. With every relapse carrying the potential for a year-long vacation, that's a crazy risk surrounding Blackmon. Further, for an addict, getting clean isn't just deciding not to use anymore. It involves a lot of effort and focus, and who knows how that distraction will impact his football performance. We've seen players given extended time off and come back like nothing ever happened (including this year's presumptive MVP), and we've also seen players who, when given a year off, have never looked the same again (such as Mo Clarett and Big Mike Williams). Blackmon is very wealthy and will have the best support system money can buy, but it's just one more risk on the pile.

No matter what happens, Justin Blackmon is either going to be someone who was ranked too high or too low. Either he stays clean and he blows away all of his risk-adjusted expectations, or else he tests positive again, throws away his career, and ten years from now we lament the fact that we even had such an obvious risk ranked at all. I tend to err on the side of letting someone else make that gamble. I like gambles (as evidenced by my stance on injured players), but I think I'll pass on the potential addict in what might be the deepest and most talented crop of receivers we've ever seen. Especially at what seem to be his current prices.

 

[Adam Harstad]

Really? I think it's primarily that Decker seems like a guy who has seen the benefit of Manning throwing the ball to him. Without Manning as his QB, I have limited confidence that Decker would be even in the WR 13-24 range. Thus, seeing him at WR 25 seems about right to me.

His production has been very close to Thomas'. Are you worried about Thomas post-Manning?

I view Thomas as one of the handful of most physically gifted WRs in the NFL, so no, I'm not. He put up numbers down the stretch with Tim freaking Tebow.

Many of us thought Larry Fitzgerald was situation proof too. Then he wasn't. It could happen to DT post Manning too.

Of course it could. But I think DT is as close to bulletproof as anyone this side of Calvin Johnson, so I see him as safer than Decker, Julius, etc.Anyone would have struggled in the "perfect storm" of crap that Fitzgerald has dealt with in AZ, so if the post-Manning Broncos roll out the league's worst QBs behind the league's worst OL, then yes, Thomas will fall off a bunch. But it's more likely that he has mediocre QBing and a still solid line, so IMO he'll likely be fine. Elway and Fox know what they're doing. Denver seems pretty unlikely to completely crater after Manning retires.

I'm not trying to rail on DT here. He's a fantastic player, and a special talent. I've just watched this happen to Steve Smith in his post Superbowl years, and now Larry Fitzgerald in his post Superbowl years. I also read lots of posts in this very thread about how Fitzgerald was fantastic no matter the QB. Heck, even Calvin had an off year in his 3rd year due in part to QB play.

People keep bringing up Larry Fitzgerald. Fitz has finished 16th or better in three of the four seasons since Warner retired, including one season of 5th overall. He averages 81/1100/7 over the last four years, which is basically Keenan Allen's 2013 season. And Fitzgerald is in pretty much the worst case scenario- we're not talking about bad quarterbacking, we're talking about not-NFL-caliber quarterbacking, paired with an atrocious offensive line.

If Larry-Fitzgerald-post-Kurt-Warner is Demaryius Thomas' floor, I can certainly think of much worse fates, especially since I feel pretty comfortable betting on Brock Osweiler to be better than Max Hall, John Skelton, Derek Anderson, et al.

 

[Adam Harstad]

That will be great for Thomas until Manning retires. Then what? Will he be a great WR stuck without a QB like Larry Fitzgerald or Steve Smith were?

Isn't that what AJ Green is right now? And everyone seems to view him as a lock moving forward.

A similar discussion came up last year. Thomas benefits from Manning in the sense that he gets high quality targets, but he suffers in the sense that he doesn't get that many targets. He only finished 13th in the NFL this year in looks. He had fewer targets, but more yards than Green, Jeffery, Andre, Dez, Marshall, and VJax. Combine the last two years and he's probably the reigning king of WR efficiency stats. High conversion rate and lots of yards.

I think what will happen when Manning/Decker/Welker are gone is that his efficiency will drop some, but he'll get more targets. Compare him to AJ Green over the past two seasons and you'll see that he's been doing a lot more with a lot fewer looks.

Green - 344 targets, 2776 yards

Thomas - 284 targets, 2864 yards

DT hasn't come close to hitting his target ceiling yet. Over the last two seasons his volume of opportunities lags well behind Calvin, VJax, Andre, Marshall, and Green. I think he's as good as most of those guys and if his team is ever in a pinch without the luxury of spreading the ball around, I think you'll see him assume more of a target hog role. Right now they don't really force him the ball.

He remains a somewhat underappreciated talent IMO, as I think he's probably a better NFL receiver than Dez or Green, and yet he doesn't seem to get quite the same benefit of the doubt as a bulletproof dynasty asset since people attribute part of his success to Manning.

The following players have over 150 targets over the past two seasons and over 10 yards per target:

Jordy Nelson - 10.4

Demaryius Thomas - 10.1

Observation #1: you're absolutely right, very few WRs have been anywhere near as efficient as Demaryius Thomas.

Observation #2: for some reason, you never bring up WR efficiency when discussing Jordy Nelson, who you are relatively cool on.

 

[Adam Harstad]

Where does Percy Harvin rank in dynasty?

He has barely played in a season and a half, but was putting up career high numbers the first half of 2012. Hopefully the hip injury isn't chronic. Too bad we didn't get to see how much SEA might feature him.

It seems like he should be older, but he is just 25 (turns 26 in May).

I've very consistently had a "top 6" of Calvin, Green, Julio, Dez, Demaryius, and Harvin. Harvin's injuries haven't changed that any more than Julio's have.

 

[Adam Harstad]

I don't think it would shock anybody if he turned in three straight years of top 10 production going forward. But I could say the same thing about a lot of WRs. Problem is there's only two guys that were highly productive in 2013 that are getting old. Andre Johnson and Vincent Jackson, and they aren't ancient by any means. We're getting to the point where there's so many quality options in pretty good situations at WR, that why would I trade for a guy with the injury risk of Harvin?

Let's go to a magical dream world where Percy Harvin is healthy for the next 8 years and never has another injury concern. He is a perennial top 5 WR in PPR. In production if not also in value. The only reason he isn't (still) a top 5 WR is because no one trusts him to be healthy and further there's stuff like this that just makes you think he won't play through mild injury. If we're saying look at Antonio Brown there's a lot of guys who can jump into the top 10 for a few years we're understating Harvin's talent or specialness. If it wasn't for the pain tolerance issue he would still be elite. Unfortunately because of that you have to treat him more like Blackmon than you did Andre Johnson when he couldn't finish a season. There's just a legit chance he's never the same player and he's going to Robert Smith us in a season or two. Regardless of ADP, seems like a guy go hard after in a long standing league. The upside is high, a lot different than the 20-25 other players who might crank out a decent run, and at some point the risk is worth the price.

The concussion is worrisome, and is one of the few injuries that will get me to apply an "injury-prone" tag to a player. I'm waiting to see how that plays out over the coming weeks. Otherwise, I see a guy who has had an unfortunate run of unrelated injuries. The migraines are not connected to the ankle (and they've been solved anyway- sleep apnea > CPAP machine > no more migraines). The ankle may or may not be connected to the labral tear, but that seems like a weird/random thing (Seattle had no problem passing him in a physical, and it went undetected for months). The labral tear had nothing to do with the concussion, which was a ridiculous hit that would have concussed pretty much any member of the human race. Does Percy's build or style of play make him more prone to further injury going forward? I don't know, but broken bones and helmet-to-helmet hits aren't really indicative of a "style of play" issue to me.

Negative news on the concussion front has the potential to drop Harvin substantially in my rankings, but as of now, put me in the camp that thinks he's just been very unlucky, but that past luck has little predictive power going forward.

 

[Bob Magaw]

Where does Percy Harvin rank in dynasty?

He has barely played in a season and a half, but was putting up career high numbers the first half of 2012. Hopefully the hip injury isn't chronic. Too bad we didn't get to see how much SEA might feature him.

It seems like he should be older, but he is just 25 (turns 26 in May).

I've very consistently had a "top 6" of Calvin, Green, Julio, Dez, Demaryius, and Harvin. Harvin's injuries haven't changed that any more than Julio's have.

How much did you move up Josh Gordon based on his incendiary 2013 soph season?.

 

[Adam Harstad]

Where does Percy Harvin rank in dynasty?

He has barely played in a season and a half, but was putting up career high numbers the first half of 2012. Hopefully the hip injury isn't chronic. Too bad we didn't get to see how much SEA might feature him.

It seems like he should be older, but he is just 25 (turns 26 in May).

I've very consistently had a "top 6" of Calvin, Green, Julio, Dez, Demaryius, and Harvin. Harvin's injuries haven't changed that any more than Julio's have.

How much did you move up Josh Gordon based on his incendiary 2013 soph season?.

Still need to do my end-of-season rankings, but he'll be close. Probably 7th or 8th. I think his suspension concerns represent a slightly bigger risk than Harvin's injury concerns (current concussion notwithstanding). I think he has slightly less track record of success. I think Harvin is a slightly better NFL talent. We're not talking about huge differences, but the net effect places Harvin at the bottom of one tier and Gordon at the top of the next.

 

[Bob Magaw]

Gordon rankings will be cleaved heavily along risk averse/tolerance lines, with the former more likely to have him out of the top five, and the latter in the top five. It is true he only has one great season, but what a season it was. After the two game suspension, he produced at a Calvin Johnson level, and separated himself from Green, Bryant and Thomas (not factoring risk).

Good point above that Julio has attendant risk also, and he seemingly isn't dinged for it at all, despite a broken foot in his pre-draft process, than I think rebreaking the same foot (ripping loose a stabilizing pin from the first repair procedure, which sounds somewhat ominous?), and missing like two thirds of the season.

 

[tdmills]

Where does Percy Harvin rank in dynasty?

He has barely played in a season and a half, but was putting up career high numbers the first half of 2012. Hopefully the hip injury isn't chronic. Too bad we didn't get to see how much SEA might feature him.

It seems like he should be older, but he is just 25 (turns 26 in May).

I've very consistently had a "top 6" of Calvin, Green, Julio, Dez, Demaryius, and Harvin. Harvin's injuries haven't changed that any more than Julio's have.

How much did you move up Josh Gordon based on his incendiary 2013 soph season?.

Still need to do my end-of-season rankings, but he'll be close. Probably 7th or 8th. I think his suspension concerns represent a slightly bigger risk than Harvin's injury concerns (current concussion notwithstanding). I think he has slightly less track record of success. I think Harvin is a slightly better NFL talent. We're not talking about huge differences, but the net effect places Harvin at the bottom of one tier and Gordon at the top of the next.

How is Harvin in the top 6? I could see an argument of these guys in front of him: Gordon, Jeffery, A. Brown, Floyd, Nelson. Gordon has off field risk, but has put up more impressive #'s on the field. Jeffery in his 2nd season(age 23) had 1400 yards, Brown is a month older and just had a 110/1500/8 season(Harvin can't touch that right now), Floyd might be a stretch, Nelson has a great QB and a couple of season better than Harvin, although older.

 

[ILUVBEER99]

Where does Percy Harvin rank in dynasty?

He has barely played in a season and a half, but was putting up career high numbers the first half of 2012. Hopefully the hip injury isn't chronic. Too bad we didn't get to see how much SEA might feature him.

It seems like he should be older, but he is just 25 (turns 26 in May).

I've very consistently had a "top 6" of Calvin, Green, Julio, Dez, Demaryius, and Harvin. Harvin's injuries haven't changed that any more than Julio's have.

How much did you move up Josh Gordon based on his incendiary 2013 soph season?.

Still need to do my end-of-season rankings, but he'll be close. Probably 7th or 8th. I think his suspension concerns represent a slightly bigger risk than Harvin's injury concerns (current concussion notwithstanding). I think he has slightly less track record of success. I think Harvin is a slightly better NFL talent. We're not talking about huge differences, but the net effect places Harvin at the bottom of one tier and Gordon at the top of the next.

How is Harvin in the top 6? I could see an argument of these guys in front of him: Gordon, Jeffery, A. Brown, Floyd, Nelson. Gordon has off field risk, but has put up more impressive #'s on the field. Jeffery in his 2nd season(age 23) had 1400 yards, Brown is a month older and just had a 110/1500/8 season(Harvin can't touch that right now), Floyd might be a stretch, Nelson has a great QB and a couple of season better than Harvin, although older.

Harvin is still grossly over rated by some. He has had one good fantasy season in his 5 years in the league and has injury/character concerns.

 

[Bob Magaw]

Throwing out Harvin's #2 standing in the first half of 2012 may be a glass half empty/full litmus test. I don't think somebody is intrinsically right or wrong for doing it or not doing it, it is a judgement call. Clearly Pete Carroll didn't in parting with a first round pick and paying him like a top five WR. Have to side with Carroll in this case of talent evaluation, he has an exemplary record in the past three or four years.

 

[opensourcebeer]

So, Norv Turner as the OC for the Vikings...what does Rudolph's upside look like? With Cassel or a rookie QB, does he have top 6 upside?

 

[EBF]

That will be great for Thomas until Manning retires. Then what? Will he be a great WR stuck without a QB like Larry Fitzgerald or Steve Smith were?

Isn't that what AJ Green is right now? And everyone seems to view him as a lock moving forward.

A similar discussion came up last year. Thomas benefits from Manning in the sense that he gets high quality targets, but he suffers in the sense that he doesn't get that many targets. He only finished 13th in the NFL this year in looks. He had fewer targets, but more yards than Green, Jeffery, Andre, Dez, Marshall, and VJax. Combine the last two years and he's probably the reigning king of WR efficiency stats. High conversion rate and lots of yards.

I think what will happen when Manning/Decker/Welker are gone is that his efficiency will drop some, but he'll get more targets. Compare him to AJ Green over the past two seasons and you'll see that he's been doing a lot more with a lot fewer looks.

Green - 344 targets, 2776 yards

Thomas - 284 targets, 2864 yards

DT hasn't come close to hitting his target ceiling yet. Over the last two seasons his volume of opportunities lags well behind Calvin, VJax, Andre, Marshall, and Green. I think he's as good as most of those guys and if his team is ever in a pinch without the luxury of spreading the ball around, I think you'll see him assume more of a target hog role. Right now they don't really force him the ball.

He remains a somewhat underappreciated talent IMO, as I think he's probably a better NFL receiver than Dez or Green, and yet he doesn't seem to get quite the same benefit of the doubt as a bulletproof dynasty asset since people attribute part of his success to Manning.

The following players have over 150 targets over the past two seasons and over 10 yards per target:

Jordy Nelson - 10.4

Demaryius Thomas - 10.1

Observation #1: you're absolutely right, very few WRs have been anywhere near as efficient as Demaryius Thomas.

Observation #2: for some reason, you never bring up WR efficiency when discussing Jordy Nelson, who you are relatively cool on.

I could buy the idea that Nelson is a somewhat underrated talent, but he's only had one 100+ target season in his six year career. It took him several years to become a viable impact player in the NFL and my sense is that he's still more of a pure deep threat who thrives as part of an ensemble as opposed to being a legitimate game-controlling #1 target. This is his first 1300+ yard season and his first season of 70+ catches, so it's a convenient time to laud him, but I don't think he's legitimately a top 5 WR in the league. If we're looking for legitimate contenders to the throne I would say Josh Gordon, Julio Jones, and Dez Bryant would have a stronger case on the balance.

 

[Adam Harstad]

Where does Percy Harvin rank in dynasty?

He has barely played in a season and a half, but was putting up career high numbers the first half of 2012. Hopefully the hip injury isn't chronic. Too bad we didn't get to see how much SEA might feature him.

It seems like he should be older, but he is just 25 (turns 26 in May).

I've very consistently had a "top 6" of Calvin, Green, Julio, Dez, Demaryius, and Harvin. Harvin's injuries haven't changed that any more than Julio's have.

How much did you move up Josh Gordon based on his incendiary 2013 soph season?.

Still need to do my end-of-season rankings, but he'll be close. Probably 7th or 8th. I think his suspension concerns represent a slightly bigger risk than Harvin's injury concerns (current concussion notwithstanding). I think he has slightly less track record of success. I think Harvin is a slightly better NFL talent. We're not talking about huge differences, but the net effect places Harvin at the bottom of one tier and Gordon at the top of the next.

How is Harvin in the top 6? I could see an argument of these guys in front of him: Gordon, Jeffery, A. Brown, Floyd, Nelson. Gordon has off field risk, but has put up more impressive #'s on the field. Jeffery in his 2nd season(age 23) had 1400 yards, Brown is a month older and just had a 110/1500/8 season(Harvin can't touch that right now), Floyd might be a stretch, Nelson has a great QB and a couple of season better than Harvin, although older.

Same way he's been top 6 all year long for me. I think he's an elite talent, he produced at an absurd level in Minnesota, Seattle paid a king's ransom to acquire him, I don't ding much for injuries.

 

[Adam Harstad]

Where does Percy Harvin rank in dynasty?

He has barely played in a season and a half, but was putting up career high numbers the first half of 2012. Hopefully the hip injury isn't chronic. Too bad we didn't get to see how much SEA might feature him.

It seems like he should be older, but he is just 25 (turns 26 in May).

I've very consistently had a "top 6" of Calvin, Green, Julio, Dez, Demaryius, and Harvin. Harvin's injuries haven't changed that any more than Julio's have.

How much did you move up Josh Gordon based on his incendiary 2013 soph season?.

Still need to do my end-of-season rankings, but he'll be close. Probably 7th or 8th. I think his suspension concerns represent a slightly bigger risk than Harvin's injury concerns (current concussion notwithstanding). I think he has slightly less track record of success. I think Harvin is a slightly better NFL talent. We're not talking about huge differences, but the net effect places Harvin at the bottom of one tier and Gordon at the top of the next.

How is Harvin in the top 6? I could see an argument of these guys in front of him: Gordon, Jeffery, A. Brown, Floyd, Nelson. Gordon has off field risk, but has put up more impressive #'s on the field. Jeffery in his 2nd season(age 23) had 1400 yards, Brown is a month older and just had a 110/1500/8 season(Harvin can't touch that right now), Floyd might be a stretch, Nelson has a great QB and a couple of season better than Harvin, although older.

Harvin is still grossly over rated by some. He has had one good fantasy season in his 5 years in the league and has injury/character concerns.

#1 rated high school recruit in the nation

One of the greatest players in college football

1st round pick

WR25 (and Offensive Rookie of the Year)

WR20 (in 14 games)

WR7

WR3 at the time of his injury (and earning legit, non-ironic MVP consideration)

Traded for a king's ransom, given a $60m contract.

That looks very much like the kind of player profile I desperately want on my fantasy teams.

 

[Adam Harstad]

That will be great for Thomas until Manning retires. Then what? Will he be a great WR stuck without a QB like Larry Fitzgerald or Steve Smith were?

Isn't that what AJ Green is right now? And everyone seems to view him as a lock moving forward.

A similar discussion came up last year. Thomas benefits from Manning in the sense that he gets high quality targets, but he suffers in the sense that he doesn't get that many targets. He only finished 13th in the NFL this year in looks. He had fewer targets, but more yards than Green, Jeffery, Andre, Dez, Marshall, and VJax. Combine the last two years and he's probably the reigning king of WR efficiency stats. High conversion rate and lots of yards.

I think what will happen when Manning/Decker/Welker are gone is that his efficiency will drop some, but he'll get more targets. Compare him to AJ Green over the past two seasons and you'll see that he's been doing a lot more with a lot fewer looks.

Green - 344 targets, 2776 yards

Thomas - 284 targets, 2864 yards

DT hasn't come close to hitting his target ceiling yet. Over the last two seasons his volume of opportunities lags well behind Calvin, VJax, Andre, Marshall, and Green. I think he's as good as most of those guys and if his team is ever in a pinch without the luxury of spreading the ball around, I think you'll see him assume more of a target hog role. Right now they don't really force him the ball.

He remains a somewhat underappreciated talent IMO, as I think he's probably a better NFL receiver than Dez or Green, and yet he doesn't seem to get quite the same benefit of the doubt as a bulletproof dynasty asset since people attribute part of his success to Manning.

The following players have over 150 targets over the past two seasons and over 10 yards per target:

Jordy Nelson - 10.4

Demaryius Thomas - 10.1

Observation #1: you're absolutely right, very few WRs have been anywhere near as efficient as Demaryius Thomas.

Observation #2: for some reason, you never bring up WR efficiency when discussing Jordy Nelson, who you are relatively cool on.

I could buy the idea that Nelson is a somewhat underrated talent, but he's only had one 100+ target season in his six year career. It took him several years to become a viable impact player in the NFL and my sense is that he's still more of a pure deep threat who thrives as part of an ensemble as opposed to being a legitimate game-controlling #1 target. This is his first 1300+ yard season and his first season of 70+ catches, so it's a convenient time to laud him, but I don't think he's legitimately a top 5 WR in the league. If we're looking for legitimate contenders to the throne I would say Josh Gordon, Julio Jones, and Dez Bryant would have a stronger case on the balance.

I'm not saying that Jordy Nelson is a top 5 WR. I'm saying you absolutely love WR efficiency stats when they confirm your existing opinion (that Demaryius is a beast), and dismiss them when they contradict your existing position (that Jordy isn't all that great). We had a big back-and-forth earlier this year when I said that Jordy was a borderline top-10 dynasty receiver, and oddly, you never once brought up his efficiency stats...

 

[EBF]

That will be great for Thomas until Manning retires. Then what? Will he be a great WR stuck without a QB like Larry Fitzgerald or Steve Smith were?

Isn't that what AJ Green is right now? And everyone seems to view him as a lock moving forward.

A similar discussion came up last year. Thomas benefits from Manning in the sense that he gets high quality targets, but he suffers in the sense that he doesn't get that many targets. He only finished 13th in the NFL this year in looks. He had fewer targets, but more yards than Green, Jeffery, Andre, Dez, Marshall, and VJax. Combine the last two years and he's probably the reigning king of WR efficiency stats. High conversion rate and lots of yards.

I think what will happen when Manning/Decker/Welker are gone is that his efficiency will drop some, but he'll get more targets. Compare him to AJ Green over the past two seasons and you'll see that he's been doing a lot more with a lot fewer looks.

Green - 344 targets, 2776 yards

Thomas - 284 targets, 2864 yards

DT hasn't come close to hitting his target ceiling yet. Over the last two seasons his volume of opportunities lags well behind Calvin, VJax, Andre, Marshall, and Green. I think he's as good as most of those guys and if his team is ever in a pinch without the luxury of spreading the ball around, I think you'll see him assume more of a target hog role. Right now they don't really force him the ball.

He remains a somewhat underappreciated talent IMO, as I think he's probably a better NFL receiver than Dez or Green, and yet he doesn't seem to get quite the same benefit of the doubt as a bulletproof dynasty asset since people attribute part of his success to Manning.

The following players have over 150 targets over the past two seasons and over 10 yards per target:

Jordy Nelson - 10.4

Demaryius Thomas - 10.1

Observation #1: you're absolutely right, very few WRs have been anywhere near as efficient as Demaryius Thomas.

Observation #2: for some reason, you never bring up WR efficiency when discussing Jordy Nelson, who you are relatively cool on.

I could buy the idea that Nelson is a somewhat underrated talent, but he's only had one 100+ target season in his six year career. It took him several years to become a viable impact player in the NFL and my sense is that he's still more of a pure deep threat who thrives as part of an ensemble as opposed to being a legitimate game-controlling #1 target. This is his first 1300+ yard season and his first season of 70+ catches, so it's a convenient time to laud him, but I don't think he's legitimately a top 5 WR in the league. If we're looking for legitimate contenders to the throne I would say Josh Gordon, Julio Jones, and Dez Bryant would have a stronger case on the balance.

I'm not saying that Jordy Nelson is a top 5 WR. I'm saying you absolutely love WR efficiency stats when they confirm your existing opinion (that Demaryius is a beast), and dismiss them when they contradict your existing position (that Jordy isn't all that great). We had a big back-and-forth earlier this year when I said that Jordy was a borderline top-10 dynasty receiver, and oddly, you never once brought up his efficiency stats...

I've said in the past that high efficiency is more impressive when paired with high volume. Guys like Russell Wilson, RG3, and Cam Newton had awesome efficiency stats in 2012, but they weren't throwing the ball nearly as much as Andrew Luck. That's part of the reason why I defended Luck in debates against those players. It's the difference between throwing when it's favorable and throwing because you have no choice. Obviously the guys who have the luxury of picking their spots will look more efficient than guys who are forced to throw constantly.

When you're talking about Jordy as a parallel with DT, realize that although both players are similar in the sense that they're the de facto #1 WR on a multi-faceted offense fronted by an elite QB, Nelson has never received the volume of targets that Thomas has. Thomas has two seasons that far outstrip Nelson's career best in targets even though Nelson is a six year veteran and Thomas is a four year veteran (who missed a big chunk of that with a torn Achilles). So you have a guy who has put up two monster seasons on high volume in four chances vs. a guy who has put up one monster season on high volume and one monster season on low volume in six chances. Nelson's 2013 looks like a bit of an aberration when stacked against the rest of his career. Even his prorated pace from 2012 is nowhere near his 2013 numbers. So I'm inclined to think he's more of a good player who had a great season than a flat out great player.

I think YPT is a nice stat (especially when combined with conversion rate), but just like any other stat it can be misleading. The #2 receivers in Pittsburgh during the Hines Ward days used to absolutely crush it from a YPT standpoint. Santonio Holmes was right around 10 YPT for three of his four seasons with the Steelers. Plaxico Burress had been one of the best before him. Mike Wallace was a monster in that scheme as well. Incredible numbers early on when Ward was still viable, but tanked hard once Ward fell off a cliff in 2011 and he was asked to try to be a real #1. Moral of the story is that an explosive deep threat in a good offense can put up elite YPT seasons, but that doesn't mean he's an elite #1 WR. Look at DeSean Jackson this year. He had a #1 NFL WR season, but he's not a legitimate #1 NFL WR (as the other five seasons show).

What helps separate the legitimate Pro Bowl type #1 receivers from the pure deep threats is the ability to maintain their productivity over high volume for many seasons. And while yes there is a little bit of subjective bias in the analysis, I think a guy like Thomas fits the mold a little better than a guy like Jordy for some of the reasons I've outlined. I do think Jordy is a nice player. I've owned him in several leagues over the years and I still have him in one league where I grabbed him as a rookie and held all these years. He's not DT though. DT is on that rare plane with guys like Fitz/VJax/Marshall/Andre and may be even better than some of those guys. Jordy also has the age factor working against him in dynasty, which is why he's not quite the trendy pick that some other guys are.

DT is just interesting because he's such a dominant force out there and yet people seem to want to find reasons to believe he's not quite on that super elite level when the obvious answer is staring them in the face. After Calvin he's as dominant as anyone in the game today. Just look at his performance this afternoon. Totally comprehensive. Won on a variety of routes and lit up the box score doing things people have said he can't do. The guy's just $$$.

 

[ZWK]

Where does Percy Harvin rank in dynasty?

He has barely played in a season and a half, but was putting up career high numbers the first half of 2012. Hopefully the hip injury isn't chronic. Too bad we didn't get to see how much SEA might feature him.

It seems like he should be older, but he is just 25 (turns 26 in May).

I've very consistently had a "top 6" of Calvin, Green, Julio, Dez, Demaryius, and Harvin. Harvin's injuries haven't changed that any more than Julio's have.

How much did you move up Josh Gordon based on his incendiary 2013 soph season?.

Still need to do my end-of-season rankings, but he'll be close. Probably 7th or 8th. I think his suspension concerns represent a slightly bigger risk than Harvin's injury concerns (current concussion notwithstanding). I think he has slightly less track record of success. I think Harvin is a slightly better NFL talent. We're not talking about huge differences, but the net effect places Harvin at the bottom of one tier and Gordon at the top of the next.

How is Harvin in the top 6? I could see an argument of these guys in front of him: Gordon, Jeffery, A. Brown, Floyd, Nelson. Gordon has off field risk, but has put up more impressive #'s on the field. Jeffery in his 2nd season(age 23) had 1400 yards, Brown is a month older and just had a 110/1500/8 season(Harvin can't touch that right now), Floyd might be a stretch, Nelson has a great QB and a couple of season better than Harvin, although older.

Harvin is still grossly over rated by some. He has had one good fantasy season in his 5 years in the league and has injury/character concerns.

#1 rated high school recruit in the nation

One of the greatest players in college football

1st round pick

WR25 (and Offensive Rookie of the Year)

WR20 (in 14 games)

WR7

WR3 at the time of his injury (and earning legit, non-ironic MVP consideration)

Traded for a king's ransom, given a $60m contract.

That looks very much like the kind of player profile I desperately want on my fantasy teams.

One reason to be concerned about Harvin's injury history is that it might affect his workload. If Seattle is worried about his injury risk, they might hold back on his touches, especially as a rusher. And a lot of his fantasy value has come from his carries (without his rushing numbers, his VBD would've been about half of what it was).

Adam, I recall that you were excited about Harvin in Seattle in part because they were talking up how much they were going to use him (in particular, they even wanted to use him in the return game). Given how things have gone this year, it seems like there's a good chance that they'll be a little bit more careful with him going forward.

 

[ShaHBucks]

That will be great for Thomas until Manning retires. Then what? Will he be a great WR stuck without a QB like Larry Fitzgerald or Steve Smith were?

Isn't that what AJ Green is right now? And everyone seems to view him as a lock moving forward.

A similar discussion came up last year. Thomas benefits from Manning in the sense that he gets high quality targets, but he suffers in the sense that he doesn't get that many targets. He only finished 13th in the NFL this year in looks. He had fewer targets, but more yards than Green, Jeffery, Andre, Dez, Marshall, and VJax. Combine the last two years and he's probably the reigning king of WR efficiency stats. High conversion rate and lots of yards.

I think what will happen when Manning/Decker/Welker are gone is that his efficiency will drop some, but he'll get more targets. Compare him to AJ Green over the past two seasons and you'll see that he's been doing a lot more with a lot fewer looks.

Green - 344 targets, 2776 yards

Thomas - 284 targets, 2864 yards

DT hasn't come close to hitting his target ceiling yet. Over the last two seasons his volume of opportunities lags well behind Calvin, VJax, Andre, Marshall, and Green. I think he's as good as most of those guys and if his team is ever in a pinch without the luxury of spreading the ball around, I think you'll see him assume more of a target hog role. Right now they don't really force him the ball.

He remains a somewhat underappreciated talent IMO, as I think he's probably a better NFL receiver than Dez or Green, and yet he doesn't seem to get quite the same benefit of the doubt as a bulletproof dynasty asset since people attribute part of his success to Manning.

The following players have over 150 targets over the past two seasons and over 10 yards per target:

Jordy Nelson - 10.4

Demaryius Thomas - 10.1

Observation #1: you're absolutely right, very few WRs have been anywhere near as efficient as Demaryius Thomas.

Observation #2: for some reason, you never bring up WR efficiency when discussing Jordy Nelson, who you are relatively cool on.

I could buy the idea that Nelson is a somewhat underrated talent, but he's only had one 100+ target season in his six year career. It took him several years to become a viable impact player in the NFL and my sense is that he's still more of a pure deep threat who thrives as part of an ensemble as opposed to being a legitimate game-controlling #1 target. This is his first 1300+ yard season and his first season of 70+ catches, so it's a convenient time to laud him, but I don't think he's legitimately a top 5 WR in the league. If we're looking for legitimate contenders to the throne I would say Josh Gordon, Julio Jones, and Dez Bryant would have a stronger case on the balance.

I'm not saying that Jordy Nelson is a top 5 WR. I'm saying you absolutely love WR efficiency stats when they confirm your existing opinion (that Demaryius is a beast), and dismiss them when they contradict your existing position (that Jordy isn't all that great). We had a big back-and-forth earlier this year when I said that Jordy was a borderline top-10 dynasty receiver, and oddly, you never once brought up his efficiency stats...

I've said in the past that high efficiency is more impressive when paired with high volume. Guys like Russell Wilson, RG3, and Cam Newton had awesome efficiency stats in 2012, but they weren't throwing the ball nearly as much as Andrew Luck. That's part of the reason why I defended Luck in debates against those players. It's the difference between throwing when it's favorable and throwing because you have no choice. Obviously the guys who have the luxury of picking their spots will look more efficient than guys who are forced to throw constantly.

When you're talking about Jordy as a parallel with DT, realize that although both players are similar in the sense that they're the de facto #1 WR on a multi-faceted offense fronted by an elite QB, Nelson has never received the volume of targets that Thomas has. Thomas has two seasons that far outstrip Nelson's career best in targets even though Nelson is a six year veteran and Thomas is a four year veteran (who missed a big chunk of that with a torn Achilles). So you have a guy who has put up two monster seasons on high volume in four chances vs. a guy who has put up one monster season on high volume and one monster season on low volume in six chances. Nelson's 2013 looks like a bit of an aberration when stacked against the rest of his career. Even his prorated pace from 2012 is nowhere near his 2013 numbers. So I'm inclined to think he's more of a good player who had a great season than a flat out great player.

I think YPT is a nice stat (especially when combined with conversion rate), but just like any other stat it can be misleading. The #2 receivers in Pittsburgh during the Hines Ward days used to absolutely crush it from a YPT standpoint. Santonio Holmes was right around 10 YPT for three of his four seasons with the Steelers. Plaxico Burress had been one of the best before him. Mike Wallace was a monster in that scheme as well. Incredible numbers early on when Ward was still viable, but tanked hard once Ward fell off a cliff in 2011 and he was asked to try to be a real #1. Moral of the story is that an explosive deep threat in a good offense can put up elite YPT seasons, but that doesn't mean he's an elite #1 WR. Look at DeSean Jackson this year. He had a #1 NFL WR season, but he's not a legitimate #1 NFL WR (as the other five seasons show).

What helps separate the legitimate Pro Bowl type #1 receivers from the pure deep threats is the ability to maintain their productivity over high volume for many seasons. And while yes there is a little bit of subjective bias in the analysis, I think a guy like Thomas fits the mold a little better than a guy like Jordy for some of the reasons I've outlined. I do think Jordy is a nice player. I've owned him in several leagues over the years and I still have him in one league where I grabbed him as a rookie and held all these years. He's not DT though. DT is on that rare plane with guys like Fitz/VJax/Marshall/Andre and may be even better than some of those guys. Jordy also has the age factor working against him in dynasty, which is why he's not quite the trendy pick that some other guys are.

DT is just interesting because he's such a dominant force out there and yet people seem to want to find reasons to believe he's not quite on that super elite level when the obvious answer is staring them in the face. After Calvin he's as dominant as anyone in the game today. Just look at his performance this afternoon. Totally comprehensive. Won on a variety of routes and lit up the box score doing things people have said he can't do. The guy's just $$$.

I have to agree with Adam. You do that more than you think EBF. I don't agree with the bolded. Russel Wilson has over 800 passes that says he is efficient. They all have enough of a sample to see who's surviving off of pure volume. We just had a long debate on RB efficiency vs Volume. Because you didn't like Bell/Stacy/Lacy you pointed out how they were not good because of their efficiency numbers. That's exactly what Adam is saying. It kind of confuses me too.

 

[EBF]

I don't agree with the bolded. Russel Wilson has over 800 passes that says he is efficient. They all have enough of a sample to see who's surviving off of pure volume. We just had a long debate on RB efficiency vs Volume. Because you didn't like Bell/Stacy/Lacy you pointed out how they were not good because of their efficiency numbers. That's exactly what Adam is saying. It kind of confuses me too.
I have to agree with Adam. You do that more than you think EBF.

A truly great season involves volume + efficiency. Matt Stafford puts up huge volume every year, but he doesn't have great efficiency. That's what separates him from Drew Brees and Peyton Manning. CJ Spiller had the same YPC as Adrian Peterson in 2012, but he did it on a fraction of the carries. It's a lot less impressive when you can pick your punches. Same with Russell Wilson. I like the guy, but he must rank near the bottom of the NFL in pass attempts/game. That isn't volume. He doesn't carry the offense. Seattle runs to set up the pass and occasionally he catches the defense asleep with his arm. Stick him in Luck's shoes and he would not have those rosy efficiency stats.

When you have to compare a high efficiency/low volume player with a high volume/low efficiency player, it can be a tricky debate. I felt Luck deserved some slack last year in comparison with RG3/Wilson because he carried a much heavier load. Likewise, I'm not necessarily rating Andre Ellington ahead of Eddie Lacy this year just because he had a higher YPC and broke a much greater number of big plays. Being explosive in spot duty is a different challenge compared with being explosive as a true workhorse. So I think it can be tough to make a good assessment when confronted with a high volume/low efficiency vs. low volume/high efficiency dilemma. Do you take Matt Stafford or Russell Wilson? Do you take Eddie Lacy or Andre Ellington? Who had the better season? That is not obvious.

But that's not quite what we're talking about here. Demaryius Thomas has been a high volume/high efficiency player for two years in a row. Jordy Nelson has done it once in his career even though he's had more chances. So I don't think it requires any great act of hypocrisy to say that Thomas is on a higher level. It's a slightly more interesting debate against Green because Green is almost like the WR version of Stafford. Poor efficiency, but he gets so many opportunities that he probably suffers in terms of average quality of chances. That (and the Dalton factor) is the only thing that keeps Green in the first tier of dynasty WRs for me, because Julio/Dez/Demaryius and even Gordon have been way better at converting targets into yards the last two years.

 

[Adam Harstad]

Where does Percy Harvin rank in dynasty?

He has barely played in a season and a half, but was putting up career high numbers the first half of 2012. Hopefully the hip injury isn't chronic. Too bad we didn't get to see how much SEA might feature him.

It seems like he should be older, but he is just 25 (turns 26 in May).

I've very consistently had a "top 6" of Calvin, Green, Julio, Dez, Demaryius, and Harvin. Harvin's injuries haven't changed that any more than Julio's have.

How much did you move up Josh Gordon based on his incendiary 2013 soph season?.

Still need to do my end-of-season rankings, but he'll be close. Probably 7th or 8th. I think his suspension concerns represent a slightly bigger risk than Harvin's injury concerns (current concussion notwithstanding). I think he has slightly less track record of success. I think Harvin is a slightly better NFL talent. We're not talking about huge differences, but the net effect places Harvin at the bottom of one tier and Gordon at the top of the next.

How is Harvin in the top 6? I could see an argument of these guys in front of him: Gordon, Jeffery, A. Brown, Floyd, Nelson. Gordon has off field risk, but has put up more impressive #'s on the field. Jeffery in his 2nd season(age 23) had 1400 yards, Brown is a month older and just had a 110/1500/8 season(Harvin can't touch that right now), Floyd might be a stretch, Nelson has a great QB and a couple of season better than Harvin, although older.

Harvin is still grossly over rated by some. He has had one good fantasy season in his 5 years in the league and has injury/character concerns.

#1 rated high school recruit in the nation

One of the greatest players in college football

1st round pick

WR25 (and Offensive Rookie of the Year)

WR20 (in 14 games)

WR7

WR3 at the time of his injury (and earning legit, non-ironic MVP consideration)

Traded for a king's ransom, given a $60m contract.

That looks very much like the kind of player profile I desperately want on my fantasy teams.

One reason to be concerned about Harvin's injury history is that it might affect his workload. If Seattle is worried about his injury risk, they might hold back on his touches, especially as a rusher. And a lot of his fantasy value has come from his carries (without his rushing numbers, his VBD would've been about half of what it was).

Adam, I recall that you were excited about Harvin in Seattle in part because they were talking up how much they were going to use him (in particular, they even wanted to use him in the return game). Given how things have gone this year, it seems like there's a good chance that they'll be a little bit more careful with him going forward.

Yeah, if you see Harvin's injury history as a troubling trend that calls for a reduction in his workload to keep him fresh, then that would call for a drop in his ranking. If you view Harvin's injury history as an unfortunate collection of unrelated injuries with little predictive power, that would not.

 

[Adam Harstad]

Do you take Eddie Lacy or Andre Ellington? Who had the better season? That is not obvious.

No, that's pretty obvious.

 

[squistion]

Do you take Eddie Lacy or Andre Ellington? Who had the better season? That is not obvious.

Wat?

 

[EBF]

What is specifically that you don't like about Ellington? You always go to bat for the undersized backs. He is heavier than Chris Johnson and CJ Spiller. One pound lighter than Jamaal Charles. Thicker than all of them when you factor in his shorter height. Had 5.5 YPC as a rookie including 8 runs of 20+ yards (only five RBs had more - Morris, Gore, Forte, McCoy, and Spiller). Out of the 40+ backs in the league who had 100 or more carries, he was the best in the NFL at breaking long runs (went for 20 or more yards on almost 7% of his carries).

I kind of doubt that he's ever going to be a 200+ carry back, but if efficiency stats were all that mattered to me, I'd be buying him in every league.