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Dynasty Rankings (4 Viewers)
- Thread starter Fear & Loathing
- Start date
EastonBlues22
Footballguy
Chris Henry's BMI might be in line with Hunter's, but the rest of his physical comps aren't particularly close. I don't see how looking at Chris Henry's NFL career will shed much light on Hunter's future, even if he's the closest historical comp we have.
It seems to me like the only thing to do here is monitor how Hunter fares getting off the line against NFL press coverage (where presumably his low BMI would hurt him the most).
His ability to stay healthy is another related concern, as is his ability to block, but I'm not as worried about those personally.
It seems to me like the only thing to do here is monitor how Hunter fares getting off the line against NFL press coverage (where presumably his low BMI would hurt him the most).
His ability to stay healthy is another related concern, as is his ability to block, but I'm not as worried about those personally.
pghrob
Footballguy
Great posts about the top 27 wr's from 2013 & 2014 rookie classes. Where would Stedman Bailey rank among them?This is a bit of nitpick, but Allen was only off the field for about a game and a half at the start of the season. He didn't play week 1, played 54% of the snaps week 2, and 83% week 3 (according to PFF). He just didn't get the ball much when he was in there.Top rookie wide receiver seasons since 2000:Eddie Royal and Mike Williams (TB) had great rookie seasons. I don't think it's craziness to think some rookies might be preferred over a guy with a 1 yr track record.I have Allen inside my top ten WRs period
Player Year Rec. Rec. Yards TDs
Anquan Boldin 2003 101 1377 8
Michael Clayton 2004 80 1193 7
A.J. Green 2011 65 1057 7
Marques Colston 2006 70 1038 8
Dwayne Bowe 2007 70 995 5
Eddie Royal 2008 91 980 5
Andre Johnson 2003 66 976 4
Mike Williams 2010 65 964 11
Julio Jones 2011 54 959 8
Allen went 71 for 1046 and 8 TDs while barely playing the first three games. Not totally fair, but a 16 game comparison is 87 receptions, 1287 yards and 10 TDs which is close to as good as Boldin's rookie year. Either way, he is right in the middle of that list even with 13 games of stats. Allen is 6' 2", 216 and was a 5 star college recruit drafted in the 3rd round due to concerns over his 40 time. His draft position was affected by him not being fully recovered from his PCL injury the prior season. You mention Royal (all 5' 10", 185 slot WR of him) and Mike Williams, who did get a big contract, so he fooled the Bucs as well. Don't forget Michael Clayton, who sucked after his rookie year. Now I can mention Julio, Andre, AJ Green, D Bowe, Colston, and Boldin, all studs with long careers (cross fingers on Julio). If you want to go fishing for rookie WRs where the 1st round bust rate is 50% of even being anything, I will happily take a 60-70% chance of getting a bonafide WR1 for 10 seasons. It is all risk to do go the other direction, but it is anyone's right to do it.
Bob Magaw
Footballguy
Hunter is sometimes compared to Randy Moss (his favorite player). He was 6'4" 210 lbs. Hunter's Titans bio lists him as 203 lbs. I thought he was so skinny because he was a competitive jumper as a prep and in college. But once he got into an NFL weight training regimen, he would add some weight. If his latest weight is right, it could mean the process has already begun. It could also mean that if he adds just another 5 lbs. (what's that, two meals with two double cheeseburgers? 
), he would be nearly the same size as Moss. While that may be a far fetched comp size-wise, if Hunter is close, that could make for a sort of proof of concept in the measurables realm of a precursor that not only played at a high level, but top 2-3 statistically high. Not sure if he is fast as Moss, but he is very fast with a career best 10.5 100 m.
Like Moss, he will be 6" taller than some DBs (not Sherman). Not sure what kind of VJ Moss had, but Hunter close to 40", so that will elevate him even higher over typical DBs tasked with covering him. He also has plus body control and acrobatic aerial skills, seeming to have no problem positioning himself where he needs to in order to high point the ball over the DB.
A few other positive factors IMO that point to a favorable projection. He has rare feet, movement skills, COD and agility for such a tall player, he can break down in the open field. After getting off to a slow start, he had the game winning TD in SD, and several strong games late in the season with 100+ yards and a TD against OAK and DEN I think. His production seemed to be limited more by lack of opps than talent holding him back, he looked good when given the chance. Britt should be moving on, not sure if Washington is back, but he won't be around too much longer, so the opportunity arrow is about to be pointed up. Initially, Wright could draw more secondary attention, and leave Hunter more room to operate.
Whisenhunt has had productive WRs in previous stops with Ward (among others), Fitzgerald and recently Allen. QB is a question mark, amplified by Whisenhunt's inability to find an answer at the position post-Warner in his last stint as a HC with ARI. But usually that isn't a major deal breaker in dynasty.
* Meno Brown beat me to it, while I was writing this.
), he would be nearly the same size as Moss. While that may be a far fetched comp size-wise, if Hunter is close, that could make for a sort of proof of concept in the measurables realm of a precursor that not only played at a high level, but top 2-3 statistically high. Not sure if he is fast as Moss, but he is very fast with a career best 10.5 100 m.Like Moss, he will be 6" taller than some DBs (not Sherman). Not sure what kind of VJ Moss had, but Hunter close to 40", so that will elevate him even higher over typical DBs tasked with covering him. He also has plus body control and acrobatic aerial skills, seeming to have no problem positioning himself where he needs to in order to high point the ball over the DB.
A few other positive factors IMO that point to a favorable projection. He has rare feet, movement skills, COD and agility for such a tall player, he can break down in the open field. After getting off to a slow start, he had the game winning TD in SD, and several strong games late in the season with 100+ yards and a TD against OAK and DEN I think. His production seemed to be limited more by lack of opps than talent holding him back, he looked good when given the chance. Britt should be moving on, not sure if Washington is back, but he won't be around too much longer, so the opportunity arrow is about to be pointed up. Initially, Wright could draw more secondary attention, and leave Hunter more room to operate.
Whisenhunt has had productive WRs in previous stops with Ward (among others), Fitzgerald and recently Allen. QB is a question mark, amplified by Whisenhunt's inability to find an answer at the position post-Warner in his last stint as a HC with ARI. But usually that isn't a major deal breaker in dynasty.
* Meno Brown beat me to it, while I was writing this.
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Leroy's Aces
Footballguy
Comparing apples to apples: Randy Moss was 6' 4", 210 (BMI of 25.6) at the combine. Hunter was 6' 4", 196 (BMI of 23.9) at the combine. 14 lbs is pretty significant when you are a lean, muscular dude (vs a typical beer drinking fantasy player)Hunter is sometimes compared to Randy Moss (his favorite player). He was 6'4" 210 lbs. Hunter's Titans bio lists him as 203 lbs. I thought he was so skinny because he was a competitive jumper as a prep and in college. But once he got into an NFL weight training regimen, he would add some weight. If his latest weight is right, it could mean the process has already begun. It could also mean that if he adds just another 5 lbs. (what's that, two meals with two double cheeseburgers?
Like Moss, he will be 6" taller than some DBs (not Sherman). Not sure what kind of VJ Moss had, but Hunter close to 40", so that will elevate him even higher over typical DBs tasked with covering him. He also has plus body control and acrobatic aerial skills, seeming to have no problem positioning himself where he needs to in order to high point the ball over the DB.
A few other positive factors IMO that point to a favorable projection. He has rare feet, movement skills, COD and agility for such a tall player, he can break down in the open field. After getting off to a slow start, he had the game winning TD in SD, and several strong games late in the season with 100+ yards and a TD against OAK and DEN I think. His production seemed to be limited more by lack of opps than talent holding him back, he looked good when given the chance. Britt should be moving on, not sure if Washington is back, but he won't be around too much longer, so the opportunity arrow is about to be pointed up. Initially, Wright could draw more secondary attention, and leave Hunter more room to operate.
Whisenhunt has had productive WRs in previous stops with Ward (among others), Fitzgerald and recently Allen. QB is a question mark, amplified by Whisenhunt's inability to find an answer at the position post-Warner in his last stint as a HC with ARI. But usually that isn't a major deal breaker in dynasty.
* Meno Brown beat me to it, while I was writing this.
Hunter's best college season in 2012 (granted, coming off an early season 2011 ACL) was 73 receptions for 1083 yards and 9 TDs. He averaged 8 yards per attempt receiving and caught 29% of the team receiving yards and 26% of the TDs.
Moss' best college season was 96 receptions for 1820 yards and 26 TDs. Moss caught 45% of team receiving yards and 59% of team TDs.
Randy Moss rookie season was 69 for 1313 and 17 TDs. Hunter's rookie season: 42 rec for 354 and 4 TDs.
Randy Moss >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Justin Hunter
Edit to say: I do not hate Hunter. I own him in 1 of 7 dynasty leagues. I am hopeful that he turns out to be decent and breaks out this season given the opportunity. I still say he doesn't fit the profile of a top NFL receiver size-wise and his pedestrian college performance doesn't lead me to believe he is a special player.
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EBF
Footballguy
He can be "like" Randy Moss without being an exact DNA clone. I don't think many people believe he's as good as Moss. For one thing, he's not as fast. Hunter will outrun a lot of DBs, but Moss in his prime was freaky fast. That's a big difference between the two. Randy was listed with a decent weight, but in pictures he's a stick figure. I like the comparison from a body type/playing style standpoint. Hunter is not THAT good though. No controversy there.
I think Hunter has the talent to be successful as a deep threat/jump ball guy. He's not the most well-rounded and complete WR, but then again he doesn't have to be to achieve some success. Send him long and throw it up. That worked well for Sidney Rice before his body went. Likewise, I think durability will be the big make-or-break variable with Hunter. The talent is there. It's just a question of staying on the field and becoming serviceable in the possession game so the team can unleash his deep threat skills.
I think Hunter has the talent to be successful as a deep threat/jump ball guy. He's not the most well-rounded and complete WR, but then again he doesn't have to be to achieve some success. Send him long and throw it up. That worked well for Sidney Rice before his body went. Likewise, I think durability will be the big make-or-break variable with Hunter. The talent is there. It's just a question of staying on the field and becoming serviceable in the possession game so the team can unleash his deep threat skills.
Bob Magaw
Footballguy
I was more comparing body type, VJ and speed (per an above comment that he may have no precedent, in a bad wayComparing apples to apples: Randy Moss was 6' 4", 210 (BMI of 25.6) at the combine. Hunter was 6' 4", 196 (BMI of 23.9) at the combine. 14 lbs is pretty significant when you are a lean, muscular dude (vs a typical beer drinking fantasy player)Hunter is sometimes compared to Randy Moss (his favorite player). He was 6'4" 210 lbs. Hunter's Titans bio lists him as 203 lbs. I thought he was so skinny because he was a competitive jumper as a prep and in college. But once he got into an NFL weight training regimen, he would add some weight. If his latest weight is right, it could mean the process has already begun. It could also mean that if he adds just another 5 lbs. (what's that, two meals with two double cheeseburgers?
Like Moss, he will be 6" taller than some DBs (not Sherman). Not sure what kind of VJ Moss had, but Hunter close to 40", so that will elevate him even higher over typical DBs tasked with covering him. He also has plus body control and acrobatic aerial skills, seeming to have no problem positioning himself where he needs to in order to high point the ball over the DB.
A few other positive factors IMO that point to a favorable projection. He has rare feet, movement skills, COD and agility for such a tall player, he can break down in the open field. After getting off to a slow start, he had the game winning TD in SD, and several strong games late in the season with 100+ yards and a TD against OAK and DEN I think. His production seemed to be limited more by lack of opps than talent holding him back, he looked good when given the chance. Britt should be moving on, not sure if Washington is back, but he won't be around too much longer, so the opportunity arrow is about to be pointed up. Initially, Wright could draw more secondary attention, and leave Hunter more room to operate.
Whisenhunt has had productive WRs in previous stops with Ward (among others), Fitzgerald and recently Allen. QB is a question mark, amplified by Whisenhunt's inability to find an answer at the position post-Warner in his last stint as a HC with ARI. But usually that isn't a major deal breaker in dynasty.
* Meno Brown beat me to it, while I was writing this.
Hunter's best college season in 2012 (granted, coming off an early season 2011 ACL) was 73 receptions for 1083 yards and 9 TDs. He averaged 8 yards per attempt receiving and caught 29% of the team receiving yards and 26% of the TDs.
Moss' best college season was 96 receptions for 1820 yards and 26 TDs. Moss caught 45% of team receiving yards and 59% of team TDs.
Randy Moss rookie season was 69 for 1313 and 17 TDs. Hunter's rookie season: 42 rec for 354 and 4 TDs.
Randy Moss >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Justin Hunter
Edit to say: I do not hate Hunter. I own him in 1 of 7 dynasty leagues. I am hopeful that he turns out to be decent and breaks out this season given the opportunity. I still say he doesn't fit the profile of a top NFL receiver size-wise and his pedestrian college performance doesn't lead me to believe he is a special player.
), not college and pro stats. In saying since Moss succeeded with a somewhat similar body Hunter might, too, didn't mean to imply he would project to have identical stats.Above 196 lbs. was mentioned, I saw 203 lbs. and you went back to the combine weight of 196 lbs. If he is at 203 lbs., than he isn't as far away as if he is 196 lbs. Hunter was a competitive jumper, don't think Moss was, a reason I expected Hunter to put on weight.
It is hard to compare them too closely for reasons you pointed out. If Moss has a torn ACL in college, it might have impacted his stats.
Would Moss have done the same in Tennessee's system/scheme with their QB and in that conference. Would Hunter have done better at Marshall, with their scheme and QB, and perhaps other WRs not as good as first rounder Patterson on the roster, as well as lower level of competition.
If Moss had played as little as Hunter for TEN as a rookie, and had Jake Locker and Fitzgetald throwing to him, his stays aren't the same. Have Hunter start every game in MIN that year with the QB and OC and supporting cast Moss had, and his stats probably go up. Not as high as what Moss did, but better than he did in very limited opportunity.
Hunter had 0 starts in 14 games.
He had 42 targets and leading WR Kendall Wright had 139 (he had 104 as a rookie). Wright had a much higher percentage of catches, not sure if that speaks to Wright getting a lot of short passes and the depth of Hunter's routes, but that is a possibility?
Wright 94-1,079-2 (11.5 Y/R)
Hunter 18-354-4 (19.7 Y/R)
I do think with better QB play, maybe in the new system, he could better his catch percentage, but what if we keep things the same and give him approx the same targets as Wright, about 3 X what he had. What might his POTENTIAL have been with comparable opportunity.
54-1,062-12
This may be an unrealistic extrapolation (in about half the catches as Wright, similar yards and 6 X the TDs), but even with less than 3 X targets, say in 2014, with a better catch rate (low bar), he could have 60+ receptions. The Y/A almost certainly is lower, but it will be interesting to see if he is a playmaker with his speed and hops. He made some bad drops in college, but made good plays on the ball with his TD opportunities. He looks like he could be a TD maker, but tough to rely on that, notoriously volatile year-to-year stat except for all but the best.
Keenan Allen had 116 targets (Whisenhunt as OC - I found a lower number for targets with a different source). I think he was Rookie of the Year runner up to Lacy with 71-1,046-8.
BTW, he didn't have enough receptions to show up among the Y/R leaders, but if he had, he would have been second behind fellow rookie Kenny Stills (20.0 Y/A) and ahead of third place Josh Gordon (18.9 Y/A).
* Moss didn't fit the profile size-wise, either, which was part of what prompted the post.
If Hunter ran a best of 10.5 100 m. (and maybe he couldn't now), and Moss was a lot faster, how much lot faster could he have been (maybe he was a lot quicker, too, which is different)? 10.4, 10.3, 10.2? Much faster could have put him in range of fastest collegiate sprinters. Maybe he could have been?
** edit/add - an interesting article which partly answers the question immediately above.
http://www.huntingtonquarterly.com/articles/issue29/heisman.html
excerpts... I liked the Michael Johnson and Carl Lewis part.
"At spring practice, he was head and shoulders above everybody else," noted former FSU interim AD Wayne Hogan. "He'd just dazzle everyone. During my 14 years down there, I only saw two people stand out above the crown like that. One was Deion Sanders. The other was Randy Moss." At 6' 5" and 210 lbs., Moss possess frightening speed. At FSU he ran the 40 in 4.25. The only Seminole in history to clock a faster time was Sanders at 4.23. And as if that weren't enough, he possesses a 36" vertical leap and versatile speed. "Randy could be a world-class sprinter," notes MU Track & Field Coach Jeff Small. "He's by far the best runner I've ever seen. That includes Michael Johnson and Carl Lewis." Small should know. After practicing with the team for only three days, Moss competed in the Southern Conference Indoor Track & Field Championships last February. He won the 200 meters in 21.15 and qualified for the NCAA Championships. He also won the 55 meters (6.32) breaking the MU record."
*** vintage SI article.
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/vault/article/magazine/MAG1010673/
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Leroy's Aces
Footballguy
EBF and Bob Magaw. You both make good points and I am more of a believer in Hunter's body type not being as big of an issue as I originally thought. I had him as a "hold" before, and may move him to a slight buy if I can get him for cheap enough. He will get a full opportunity to show his stuff this season it would appear.What still concerns me is his college and pro performance to date. Like the quote from Moneyball goes, "If he is such a good hitter, why doesn't he hit good?". If Hunter is such a good wide receiver, why doesn't he play wide receiver good? He was not dominant in college. With his fantastic performance metrics, he should have dominated at some point. He didn't. If he was going to be any good, why didn't he supplant a terrible Kenny Britt right away? Bob pointed out that Hunter had 0 starts in 14 games to back his point about underperformance. I would like to use the same stat to back mine: If he was good, why didn't he play? Does anyone think Randy Moss or AJ Green would have been sitting behind an awful Kenny Britt for 14 games? Obviously, wide receivers generally improve significantly from their rookie season, so Hunter should certainly be better than he was as a rookie. But his college and pro performance to date tells me that the odds are strongly against him ever becoming a stud #1 fantasy and pro WR. If he was going to be, he would have already shown it.
Just a quick bit on the size.Bob Magaw said:
Randy Moss did not attend the combine. I have no idea what his official weigh in was at his pro day. Does anyone? What teams list players weight is not a really reliable guide but early in his career the Vikings listed him at 203 or 204 and later that was increased to 210. Hunter was combine 196 and now listed as 203.
Without knowing Randy's pro day weight to be sure I'm left to guess but since Moss was listed at 203/204 in his rookie year bottom line is I don't think the weight difference between them was close to 14 pounds on either their pro workout days or rookie seasons.
I don't ever envision Hunter becoming as good as Moss, more of a poor mans version, but he's always been my best case comp for what Hunter could be just based simply on his build, size, and leaping ability. I just don't think he can catch as well as Moss or is as intuitive a player.
EBF
Footballguy
He tore his ACL three games into his sophomore season. The next year he had 1000+ yards even though a lot of scouts thought his level had slipped. I think his production was okay when you consider that he got hurt as a sophomore and left college before his senior year. It's not like he's Marquise Goodwin or Aaron Dobson where he was just mediocre every year.
What still concerns me is his college and pro performance to date. Like the quote from Moneyball goes, "If he is such a good hitter, why doesn't he hit good?". If Hunter is such a good wide receiver, why doesn't he play wide receiver good? He was not dominant in college. With his fantastic performance metrics, he should have dominated at some point. He didn't. If he was going to be any good, why didn't he supplant a terrible Kenny Britt right away? Bob pointed out that Hunter had 0 starts in 14 games to back his point about underperformance. I would like to use the same stat to back mine: If he was good, why didn't he play? Does anyone think Randy Moss or AJ Green would have been sitting behind an awful Kenny Britt for 14 games? Obviously, wide receivers generally improve significantly from their rookie season, so Hunter should certainly be better than he was as a rookie. But his college and pro performance to date tells me that the odds are strongly against him ever becoming a stud #1 fantasy and pro WR. If he was going to be, he would have already shown it.
Leroy's Aces
Footballguy
I certainly can't defend Goodwin vs Hunter, but let me take a little shot with Dobson.He tore his ACL three games into his sophomore season. The next year he had 1000+ yards even though a lot of scouts thought his level had slipped. I think his production was okay when you consider that he got hurt as a sophomore and left college before his senior year. It's not like he's Marquise Goodwin or Aaron Dobson where he was just mediocre every year.
What still concerns me is his college and pro performance to date. Like the quote from Moneyball goes, "If he is such a good hitter, why doesn't he hit good?". If Hunter is such a good wide receiver, why doesn't he play wide receiver good? He was not dominant in college. With his fantastic performance metrics, he should have dominated at some point. He didn't. If he was going to be any good, why didn't he supplant a terrible Kenny Britt right away? Bob pointed out that Hunter had 0 starts in 14 games to back his point about underperformance. I would like to use the same stat to back mine: If he was good, why didn't he play? Does anyone think Randy Moss or AJ Green would have been sitting behind an awful Kenny Britt for 14 games? Obviously, wide receivers generally improve significantly from their rookie season, so Hunter should certainly be better than he was as a rookie. But his college and pro performance to date tells me that the odds are strongly against him ever becoming a stud #1 fantasy and pro WR. If he was going to be, he would have already shown it.
Aaron Dobson:
College best season:
- Caught 12 TDs out of a team 22 TDs his best college season, which is 54%.
- Caught 24% of team receiving yards (just 668, but the team threw for less than 2800)
- 37 rec for 519 and 4 TDs in 12 games, equates to 49 rec for 697 and 5.33 TDs in a full season
- Just 1 game out of 12 with 0-2 targets.
- 6 out of 12 games with 7 or more targets
College best season:
- Caught 8 TDs out of 35 team TDs his best college season, which is 26%, less than half that of Dobson.
- Caught 29% of team receiving yards, 5% better than Dobson.
- 18 rec for 354 and 4 TDs in a full 16 game season
- 10 games out of 16 with 0-2 targets including six 0s.
- 2 games out of 16 with 7 or more targets.
We can go back and forth on how Hunter didn't put numbers in the pros because he didn't start, but one can argue back that he didn't start because his coaches didn't think he was good enough to put up numbers. Dobson started the season behind Thompkins but supplanted him and still put up superior numbers even with injury issues.
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EBF
Footballguy
I don't think I said Dobson was a mediocre player, but I said he was mediocre every year. Which he absolutely was in college.
Here's his yardage by season:
2009 - 362
2010 - 689
2011 - 668
2012 - 679
He had one year where he somehow managed to catch 12 TDs despite his pitiful yardage. In the other three years his TD totals were 4, 5, and 3.
If you want to defend the guy, be my guest. That's about the worst college career you're going to see for a 3-4 year full-time WR top 100 NFL draft pick though.
Here's his yardage by season:
2009 - 362
2010 - 689
2011 - 668
2012 - 679
He had one year where he somehow managed to catch 12 TDs despite his pitiful yardage. In the other three years his TD totals were 4, 5, and 3.
If you want to defend the guy, be my guest. That's about the worst college career you're going to see for a 3-4 year full-time WR top 100 NFL draft pick though.
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Leroy's Aces
Footballguy
Bob Magaw
Footballguy
to Leroy's Aces, Meno Brown and EBF.I don't think Hunter is Moss, either, in the sense of being identical to a possible first ballot Hall of Famer. As to not likely being a future stud #1 WR, I'd just point out he could not be as good as Calvin Johnson, A.J. Green, Julio Jones, Demaryius Thomas, Dez Bryant or Josh Gordon (all bigger, though as noted above, Green not THAT much different size-wise, the focus now, per the question should we categorically rule Hunter out as a good prospect due to size - of course Green's overall skill set and now established NFL body of work, having the most receptions in his first three years [260] in league history, making him a vastly superior prospect, a deserved #1 overall in many startup dynasty leagues)... and still be a very good prospect.
As to why he didn't do better, I could offer a few reasons off the top of my head.
Maybe he did need to gain size and strength in his first year, being a former track star/part-time football player (presumably he wasn't living in the gym pumping iron year round if was a competitive international-caliber as prep and national-level as collegiate jumper). Also, even if he was the same weight as Moss as a rookie (an open question - but perhaps 203 lbs.?), being 203 lbs. 15 years ago in 1998 isn't the same as being 203 lbs. in 2013. Players have gotten bigger and stronger.
Another possibility is that Munchak may have simply, plainly erred. He did get fired, that may have been one of other possible mistakes that led to his demise. To illustrate a point with an admitted extreme case, if Adrian Peterson or Andrew Luck were drafted by Shanahan and for some reason he thought they were mean to him and out of pettiness cut off his nose to spite his face by playing them sparingly as rookies, we couldn't question their college production like we can Hunter, because their's was indisputable. But we might question them on the basis of, maybe their unassailable college body of work wouldn't translate to the NFL because they played sparingly and didn't put up monster stats as rookies. I don't know what Calvin Johnson did in college (fellow Georgia Tech alum Demaryius Thomas didn't put up big stats due to the the scheme), or Vernon Davis, but their unusual athleticism had many convinced they were can't miss pros. They are much more impressive physical specimens, so not drawing that analogy, but just about the start of their careers. Johnson as a rookie was 48-756-4 (starting far more than Hunter). Davis was 103-1,132-9... in a COMBINED 40 games over his first three seasons.
This is where it is important to use scouting in conjunction with the stats. Scouting MAY be misleading if the stats point strongly to a different conclusion, but conversely, stats COULD be misleading if there are mitigating (not to be confused with micturating
) factors... such as an ACL tear in college causing him to not blow up, his track background and profile leading to him not hitting the weights year round as a teeanager like many/most of his peers, etc.To use another extreme as a sort of thought experiment to illustrate a point, if Shanahan drafted a WR, and we heard he had one of the greatest games ever in his debut, but that WR was mean to Shanahan, and he played him sparingly the rest of the way, we might go back later and look at that game. If he demonstrated several physical traits or athletic attributes that we know can translate to success as an NFL WR (say he had three TDs, each time flashing a Deion Sanders-like 4.25 40 and a Darrell "Dr. Dunkenstein" Griffith-like 48" VJ, getting low-bridged by a CB, flipping in the air and demonstrating acrobatic aerial skills such as making several 70 yard one-handed behind the back catches and another in which he high points the ball while catching it underneath his knee between his thigh and calf
), we probably wouldn't observe and comment... not sure if he can play or has what it takes. We would KNOW he can play. We might, and it would be remiss not to, cross-check the unambiguous visual evidence with the stats and try and puzzle out why he didn't play more (terrible blocker and they value that might be a far-fetched example?). It is good to do that, and thanks for checking the scouting-based observations and projections. But purely about ability, we probably wouldn't have any questions.Bringing that all back to Hunter, will he ever be a complete, well rounded WR like the top half dozen contemporary WRs cited above? I'll get back to that in a moment.
For now, though, IMO he made special plays as a rookie that looked like he could have a rare combo of height, speed, athleticism, agility, the instincts to track the ball in the air, make in-flight adjustments and an intuitive sense of how to defeat the coverage by high pointing it, body control and ball skills... that IMO make him a compelling prospect. Some players make difficult plays look easy and are just naturals athletically, like Willie Mays making a basket catch, Michael Jordan effortlessly spinning in a contested triple pump fake scoop shot in the paint or Moss making a one handed catch (we would know they could play at a high level immediately with just one exemplar, if it was well chosen). Without putting Hunter at that level, he seems to me to be a natural in the more delimited sub-set of down the field ball skills. Not sure about future #1 stud, but possibly very good, and better and undervalued relative to how others may currently project him.
Back to the question of whether he can he be more complete? An open question, but if he can get a little biger and stronger like AJ Green, maybe (he is almost as big as Green now, though the serial Pro Bowler is very strong for his size, which is why Hunter almost certainly will never fully live up to that or the Moss comp, maybe his two closest physical stature and body-type peers - but again, he wouldn't need to, to remain very valuable in the future). Another big factor, in addition to it not being too speculative to think he might get a bit bigger and stronger now that he isn't competing in track or a part time football player, but can completely dedicate himself to NFL-style year round weight training, is that the way he moves for a 6'4", former career best 10.5 100 m. sprinter is suggestive that he may have star potential. He isn't a stiff, robotic or straightlinish player that needs to be pointed straight ahead like one of those old school electric board games
. I saw him make cuts and moves, and break down defenders in the open field, that most athletes of his dimension couldn't even dream of, let alone do effortlessly.
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The Real Yoda
Footballguy
Agreed - I was offered Marshall for Ellington and a 3rd and was like, woah, someone likes him. *accept*
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
just curious as to what people think About ADP
Got a guy in a league wanting to swap his Peterson for my Lacy.
IMO Lacy is more valuable than ADP just based on age alone
Got a guy in a league wanting to swap his Peterson for my Lacy.
IMO Lacy is more valuable than ADP just based on age alone
EBF
Footballguy
He's RB7 in my latest dynasty rankings, but that comes with a heavy asterisk. I think he's really just a 1-2 year play at this point and anything beyond that has to be considered a bonus. A lot of negatives with AP. His numbers dropped back to mere mortal levels in 2013, he's dealing with an offseason groin surgery, and he turns 29 next month.
Prime candidate to be overvalued based on name recognition and past achievements. I think people are going to buy him thinking he's going to put them over the top for the next 1-2 years, but in reality there are a lot of guys who can match his ppg with a few lucky bounces and his remaining shelf life is a real problem. Would not touch at his expected asking price.
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Coeur de Lion
Footballguy
I'm probably not as worried about his age -- although obviously it's a factor -- because I think he's enough of a freak to be good into his early 30s, so I'd guess he's more likely to have 3 - 4 years of FF relevance left.
But the bolded is something that people tend to overlook, particularly if we're talking PPR. Peterson is hands down the best RB in the NFL. But in PPR FF, he's usually behind or even with the guys who are heavily featured as receivers.
I'm normally a big fan of buying guys like this from the youth-crazy types, but Peterson seems to be carrying a bigger pricetag than a typical aging FF RB1.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Randy Moss has a vertical leap score of 51" (130 cm) http://www.topendsports.com/testing/results/vertical-jump.htmHunter is sometimes compared to Randy Moss (his favorite player). He was 6'4" 210 lbs. Hunter's Titans bio lists him as 203 lbs. I thought he was so skinny because he was a competitive jumper as a prep and in college. But once he got into an NFL weight training regimen, he would add some weight. If his latest weight is right, it could mean the process has already begun. It could also mean that if he adds just another 5 lbs. (what's that, two meals with two double cheeseburgers?
Like Moss, he will be 6" taller than some DBs (not Sherman). Not sure what kind of VJ Moss had, but Hunter close to 40", so that will elevate him even higher over typical DBs tasked with covering him. He also has plus body control and acrobatic aerial skills, seeming to have no problem positioning himself where he needs to in order to high point the ball over the DB.
A few other positive factors IMO that point to a favorable projection. He has rare feet, movement skills, COD and agility for such a tall player, he can break down in the open field. After getting off to a slow start, he had the game winning TD in SD, and several strong games late in the season with 100+ yards and a TD against OAK and DEN I think. His production seemed to be limited more by lack of opps than talent holding him back, he looked good when given the chance. Britt should be moving on, not sure if Washington is back, but he won't be around too much longer, so the opportunity arrow is about to be pointed up. Initially, Wright could draw more secondary attention, and leave Hunter more room to operate.
Whisenhunt has had productive WRs in previous stops with Ward (among others), Fitzgerald and recently Allen. QB is a question mark, amplified by Whisenhunt's inability to find an answer at the position post-Warner in his last stint as a HC with ARI. But usually that isn't a major deal breaker in dynasty.
* Meno Brown beat me to it, while I was writing this.
Also DaKnee Green has mentioned Moss as having 4.1 speed, saying that is what 4.1 speed looks like.
Bob Magaw
Footballguy
I don't know if that was hand timed. I'm not sure Usain Bolt could run a 4.1.
I've seen Moss a lot, and he was very fast and a great leaper, but never got the sense he had a better VJ than Darrell Griffith or David Thompson.
I'm not sure who Daknee Green is or if he is an authority, but both figures seem suspect to me.
I've seen Moss a lot, and he was very fast and a great leaper, but never got the sense he had a better VJ than Darrell Griffith or David Thompson.
I'm not sure who Daknee Green is or if he is an authority, but both figures seem suspect to me.
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Coeur de Lion
Footballguy
Hans-times results are pretty notoriously unreliable -- and IIRC Chris Johnson still holds the record for a legit combine 40 time at 4.24. I'm fairly sure Moss was in the mid - high 4.2x range as far as an eloctronically timed result.
ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
Cue Xue on Chris Johnson's "4.24" 40...
Concept Coop
Footballguy
ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Biabreakable
Footballguy
You are correct there is no official combine numbers for Moss, and I agree Dennis Green is full of it. Just having a bit of fun here.
In any case Hunter is a nice prospect and if Locker can develop or they find a new QB Hunter could do pretty well. The Randy Moss comparisons to Hunter are about as silly as these (maybe, likely) exaggerated leap and speed times.
Coeur de Lion
Footballguy
I'd be willing to buy at the right price. He was relatively highly drafted and in a good situation with plenty of opportunity. I just picked up Thompkins in one league, and have Boyce stashed in a few others. Any of those guys could emerge over the next year or two and none seem to be very expensive currently.
Bob Magaw
Footballguy
Moss is more of a body size/type-comp (Hunter is fast and can jump obviously, but not as explosive). Nobody thinks Hunter is as good as Moss.You are correct there is no official combine numbers for Moss, and I agree Dennis Green is full of it. Just having a bit of fun here.
In any case Hunter is a nice prospect and if Locker can develop or they find a new QB Hunter could do pretty well. The Randy Moss comparisons to Hunter are about as silly as these (maybe, likely) exaggerated leap and speed times.
False Start
Footballguy
All Peterson did when people doubted him before was run for 2000 yards after an ACL injury. They doubt him again? I wouldnt be surprised if he is the best RB over the age of 30 in a long time when that time comes.
ILUVBEER99
Footballguy
Possibly, but even an all-time great like Tomlinson fell off a cliff later in his career. At 28 he was a beast, 29 still solid but fading, and 30+ mediocre and barely startable in FF.
When RB's fade they fade fast.
With regard to the actual 40 times, I think those are vastly overvalued. Moss had functional football speed and made defenders look like they were running in molasses. Haven't seen that from Hunter, or anyone else since Moss, really.
Chris Johnson had that speed at one time, but it looks significantly diminished to me.
Chris Johnson had that speed at one time, but it looks significantly diminished to me.
The Fantasy Chef
Footballguy
Bob would I be making a good move to offer Kenbral thompkins and my 2.07 for Justin Hunter and his 3.02.... I'm thinking Hunter is better than what I can get at my 2.07 pick and might strike gold if they get a better qb in Tenn. What's your take on my thoughts. I was reading all your posts on this thread and thought you had a good grasp of his value and potential. Mt 12 team dynasty is in my signature.Moss is more of a body size/type-comp (Hunter is fast and can jump obviously, but not as explosive). Nobody thinks Hunter is as good as Moss.You are correct there is no official combine numbers for Moss, and I agree Dennis Green is full of it. Just having a bit of fun here.
In any case Hunter is a nice prospect and if Locker can develop or they find a new QB Hunter could do pretty well. The Randy Moss comparisons to Hunter are about as silly as these (maybe, likely) exaggerated leap and speed times.
Bob Magaw
Footballguy
Fantasy Chef,Bob would I be making a good move to offer Kenbral thompkins and my 2.07 for Justin Hunter and his 3.02.... I'm thinking Hunter is better than what I can get at my 2.07 pick and might strike gold if they get a better qb in Tenn. What's your take on my thoughts. I was reading all your posts on this thread and thought you had a good grasp of his value and potential. Mt 12 team dynasty is in my signature.Moss is more of a body size/type-comp (Hunter is fast and can jump obviously, but not as explosive). Nobody thinks Hunter is as good as Moss.You are correct there is no official combine numbers for Moss, and I agree Dennis Green is full of it. Just having a bit of fun here.
In any case Hunter is a nice prospect and if Locker can develop or they find a new QB Hunter could do pretty well. The Randy Moss comparisons to Hunter are about as silly as these (maybe, likely) exaggerated leap and speed times.
You know what I think of Hunter, so I would stack that up against what you think of Thompkins.
Since you asked, IMO Hunter's upside more than offsets the slight pick swap.
False Start
Footballguy
Foles ahead of Brees in any dynasty league is crazy. I'll take Brees for 2/3 more years than anyone for 5. Plus how many really keep a player for their entire career? Value of youth so over rated. I have exploited it in all my leagues.
Brees Mannings Rodgers in that order in any dynasty league.
Tell me, how did Mannings production fair at age 37? Sheesh, these people love youth so much.
joey
Footballguy
word. I am riding Manning off into the sunset for as many years as he'll give me.
Then, if any of my young QBs don't turn out to be Top 6, I'll work a trade for the next "too old" QB to ride for the next 2-3 years after that. Rinse and repeat.
ETA: that said, I do like the comfort of having Rodgers in one dynasty league and not having to really think much about that position for the next 5+ years or so.
Then, if any of my young QBs don't turn out to be Top 6, I'll work a trade for the next "too old" QB to ride for the next 2-3 years after that. Rinse and repeat.
ETA: that said, I do like the comfort of having Rodgers in one dynasty league and not having to really think much about that position for the next 5+ years or so.
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False Start
Footballguy
You hit it right on. Give me Manning/Brees then Rodgers/Ryan then Luck/RG3. One day they will all be old.
az_prof
Footballguy
I agree that Hunter is a "poor man's Moss"--not as skilled or intuitive as you say, but with similar physical skills. Moss never played with a great QB until his time in NE, so that could change the arc of Hunter's career too. I think 2014 will be a good window into what Hunter is going to be long term. I expect him to make a big leap. But I can understand critics remaining skeptical. However, I don't see that any of the other 2013 WRs have distanced themselves from Hunter yet.
Agreed. I can't see how a more productive, younger player is ranked ahead of Brees.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
2014 PPG (PPR)JayJay328 said:
Vereen: 16.81 (8th)
Ellington: 11.02 (33rd)
Vereen is going to catch a lot more balls than Ellington, until their situations change. I agree that Vereen isn't his ceiling outside if Arizona, but it might be while he's there.
That said, a healthy Vereen is an RB1 and worth a lot more than an early 2nd rounder.
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thriftyrocker
Footballguy
I see what you did there.
I think one trap with favoring youth is assuming all youth will have long careers. Paying for the tail with Luck is a lot different than paying for the tail with Foles. Paying for the tail with AJ Green is a lot different than paying for the tail with Keenan Allen or Nuk Hopkins.
In the specific case of the two Westlake HS grads, Foles' chance at being elite longer than Brees isn't that high. If I were to chart chance at being elite by year it would be something like
Foles: 90% 70% 70% 70% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 10%
Brees: 100% 100% 90% 50% 20% 10% 0%
So just based on that dumb approximation based on my own biases the expected number of elite seasons would be 4.8 vs. 3.7 in favor of Foles. I could probably quibble with those Foles projections for hours, but the main takeaway for me is that they are relatively close but slight favor to Foles. If you prefer Brees it is because the near term is more guaranteed, and it is close enough that's a completely reasonable strategy.
For comparison sake I think Luck is 80% across the board for about 15 years,which is an expectation of 12 elite seasons. The nearterm is still less guaranteed than Brees, but the tail offers a lot.
My main complaint about the Rotoworld rankings is Stafford's tier placement. I think we underestimate his Cutler-like downside. His main pluses right now are Calvin and age, but I would not pay a premium for that compared to Wilson, Kaepernick, Griffin, and Ryan.
False Start
Footballguy
Foles more productive? Then Brees? Brees has now finished as a top-three fantasy quarterback each of the past eight seasons. That includes three first-place finishes and Foles has had one good season and he is more productive than Brees?
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thriftyrocker
Footballguy
I think I'd also reverse tier 3 almost completely. I don't see any reason to favor Tannehill or Dalton over Rivers, Romo, or Brady. Other than trade value to people who blindly favor age.
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
Chip. A lot of possible outcomes. It's possible Foles becomes Chip's Brady and they both stay in PHI for a decade+. It's possible it's a short marriage and Foles is Alex Smith (with a better arm and friendlier offense) and eventually Chip finds his Kaepernick. It's possible even if that happens he finds 2nd life in another town and continues to put up stats. It's possible Foles is a one year wonder and despite continued fantasy production is exposed next year. It's possible Chip goes back to college at some point, and the new coach is defensive minded. That's why I put cliffs after year 1 (fraud) and after year 4 (new coach). I see him as somewhat situation dependent (esp to remain elite) and that situation to have several causes of volatility.
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