Nice post F&L - Thanks for keeping your rankings updated as well.Below is the offseason WR/TE landscape from Rotoworld's Gregg Rosenthal.
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Gregg Rosenthal
Offseason Low Down
Good work once again F & L... Unfortunately about 1/2 of my dynasty league is probably watching and I've got some serious trading to do this offseason.Updated for beginning of free agency season and minor adjustment throughout.I've resisted the urge to add rookies because I think it's an exercise in futility until we know where they're going to play in 2007. But I can tell you that it would be tough for me to keep Calvin Johnson out of the top 5 WRs...and Adrian Peterson out of the top 6 or 7 RBs. I think they're the most impressive pro prospects at their respective positions in years.
good job keeping this updated fear...i miss the update info that you used to have in there....i.e. when and why significant moves... i know it keeps post long and cluttered, but maybe the reasons in a reply and bumpkeep up the good workUpdated for beginning of free agency season and minor adjustment throughout.I've resisted the urge to add rookies because I think it's an exercise in futility until we know where they're going to play in 2007. But I can tell you that it would be tough for me to keep Calvin Johnson out of the top 5 WRs...and Adrian Peterson out of the top 6 or 7 RBs. I think they're the most impressive pro prospects at their respective positions in years.
Thanks. I was considering a few new topics, but it's tough to get too excited without much feedback lately. I've been working on a new value scale, which was going to be next big update. But I also gave some thought to doing an update on all of the players who have changed teams in the offseason and how that has affected their value. I could also follow your suggestion and do a write-up on all players who have moved significantly up or down. I've been slacking on my baseball preparation this year because it's just tough to get excited with management throwing money around haphazardly all off-season and the rest of the stories revolving around mainstream journalism's obsession with steroids. But with auctions coming up I'll be forced to dive head-first into baseball, and I hope to still have enough energy and interest to work on this football stuff.dirtyhalos said:good job keeping this updated fear...i miss the update info that you used to have in there....i.e. when and why significant moves... i know it keeps post long and cluttered, but maybe the reasons in a reply and bumpkeep up the good workUpdated for beginning of free agency season and minor adjustment throughout.I've resisted the urge to add rookies because I think it's an exercise in futility until we know where they're going to play in 2007. But I can tell you that it would be tough for me to keep Calvin Johnson out of the top 5 WRs...and Adrian Peterson out of the top 6 or 7 RBs. I think they're the most impressive pro prospects at their respective positions in years.
Great stuff as always F & L. Really looking forward to your rookie stuff.Updated for beginning of free agency season and minor adjustment throughout.I've resisted the urge to add rookies because I think it's an exercise in futility until we know where they're going to play in 2007. But I can tell you that it would be tough for me to keep Calvin Johnson out of the top 5 WRs...and Adrian Peterson out of the top 6 or 7 RBs. I think they're the most impressive pro prospects at their respective positions in years.
Excellent addition IMO!! Great stuff, as always!! ThanksETA: Looking forward to seeing the other positions (whenever you have time)!!Trying something new here to try to better reflect value. Feedback please. Should I continue this with the other positions or just ditch the whole experiment?
Below are tiered dynasty quarterback rankings based on a 100 scale.
QUARTERBACKS
TIER ONE
[100] Peyton Manning IND 31.5 - No-brainer
[89] Carson Palmer CIN 27.7
TIER TWO
[76] Drew Brees NO 28.6 - Better QB than I thought, Sean Payton = fantasy gold?
[74] Tom Brady NE 30.1 - Stallworth as a playmaker & Welker in the Troy Brown role; pushes Caldwell & Gaffney back down the depth chart where they belong.
[72] #Donovan McNabb PHI 30.7 - 1st half fantasy MVP + dynamic scorer + emergence of Reggie Brown & possibly Hank Baskett vs. health questions + Stallworth's exit + running numbers likely to fall off
[71] Vince Young TEN 24.3 - Could go higher if you're drafting from scratch; could go lower if you're going for it all and prefer the more reliable Bulger in '07
[70] Marc Bulger STL 30.4 - Could be top 5 with addition of Bennett; not much difference in value from #3 to #8 here.
[69] Michael Vick ATL 27.2 - I went into the offseason very high on Vick compared to the guys ahead of him, but I like what the Patriots & Rams have added to help their QBs. I still like Vick, especially if you can get him on the cheap while other owners are blaming him & his airport incident for the defense's collapse & poor WR play.
[64] Ben Roethlisberger PIT 25.5 - Special talent, poor season, most underrated QB in dynasty leagues
[61] Matt Leinart ARI 24.3
[56] Philip Rivers SD 25.8
[52] #Matt Hasselbeck SEA 32.0 - Will he get back to '05 heights with the offense aging and the WRs possibly in flux?
TIER THREE
[46] Jay Cutler DEN 24.3 - Haven't seen enough yet to move him up to the more reliable tier
[43] Byron Leftwich JAX 27.6 - Buy low on him this offseason; you will be rewarded
[41] Eli Manning NYG 26.6 - Skittish in pocket, prone to long stretches of unbearable play, possible confidence issues, loss of Tiki
[39] Tony Romo DAL 27.4 - Return to earth in '07; Parcells was right: the anointing oils were out in full force way too soon
[38] Alex Smith SF 23.3 - Has youth on his side, but seemed to take a step backwards in the 2nd half of the season
[30] #Daunte Culpepper MIA 30.5 - the ultimate gamble
Jake Delhomme CAR 32.6 - Will remain starter in '07, but now more placeholder than franchise QB; bounceback year in '07?
TIER FOUR
[23] Jon Kitna DET 35.0 - DET not likely to go for Quinn, Kitna could easily produce top 10 numbers again, but could also hit the bench at any time. Bottom line: still eminently startable...and could be for a couple years.
[21] Jason Campbell WAS 25.6 - Will Snyder/Gibbs operation be patient enough to go with Campbell in '07?
[19] J.P. Losman BUF 26.5 - Need to see another year of improvement; I don't think his ceiling is much higher than his '06 production
[17] Jake Delhomme CAR 32.6 - Will remain starter in '07, but now more placeholder than franchise QB; bounceback year in '07?
[16] Brett Favre GB 37.9 - Still very startable most weeks...GB adding Moss?
[14] Chad Pennington NYJ 31.2 - Looking less likely to lose his job to Clemens...barring injury of course
[13] Matt Schaub [ATL] 26.2 [RFA] - Being Volek-ed on these boards…likely in ATL one more year; how good is he?
[11] Tarvaris Jackson MIN 24.4 - Has shown poise, strong arm & athleticism, but lacks accuracy & polish; will MIN bring in a vet or draft Quinn?
[11] Rex Grossman CHI 27.0 - Bears have a Super Bowl window of a couple of years...Rex is not the right man for the job
TIER FIVE
[8] Charlie Frye CLE 26.0 - Crennel on hot seat could mean a veteran acquisition
[8] David Carr [HOU] 28.1 [TRADE] - As good as gone from HOU
[7] Damon Huard KC 34.2 - Re-signed with KC, presumably to be the starter
[7] Steve McNair BAL 34.5 - No longer startable; how much left in the tank?
[7] Kellen Clemens NYJ 24.3 - May be at least another year away
[7] Trent Green [KC] 37.2 [CUT/TRADE] - There are some openings out there; He could definitely compete to start elsewhere...could have some life left if he ends up in the right situation
[6] David Garrard [JAX] 29.5 - I think he'll be traded and will probably have a shot to start elsewhere
[6] Cleo Lemon MIA 28.1 [RFA] - Will compete with Culpepper for starting job, should know Cameron's system
TIER SIX
[4] Brodie Croyle KC 24.5 - Chiefs still talking him up, but I don't think he'll play unless Huard gets injured or underproduces
[4] Seneca Wallace SEA 27.1 - Seahawks looking to get what they can for him this offseason?
[4] Kyle Boller BAL 26.3 - Could he take over for McNair during '07 season? Trade with CAR?
[4] Brian Griese CHI 32.5 - Would have given the Bears a better shot in the Super Bowl
[4] Jeff Garcia TB 37.5 - I'm not crazy about Garcia or Simms: Garcia is getting far too much credit for a solid month's play after 3 piss poor seasons; TB's offense is bottom of the barrel, and it doesn't look like help is on the way...despite what you're reading in mock drafts, there's no way Calvin Johnson makes it to #4.
[3] Aaron Rodgers GB 23.8 - Won't see the field for another year...unless he gets traded to OAK
[3] Patrick Ramsey DEN 28.5 - Could perform very nicely if Cutler stutters or gets injured
[3] Quinn Gray JAX 28.3 [RFA] - Would like to sign elsewhere, but JAX placed 2nd round tender
[3] Chris Simms TB 27.0 - Backup material; even if he somehow manages to start the season, he'll be benched for Garcia early on
TIER SEVEN
[2] Drew Bledsoe [DAL] 35.5 [uFA] - Retirement? Oakland? Back-up elsewhere?
[2] Aaron Brooks [OAK] 31.5 [uFA] - QBs who can't complete 58% & turn the ball over aren't long for starting…just ask Kerry Collins & Drew Bledsoe
[2] Matt Cassel NE 25.3
[2] A.J. Feeley PHI 30.3 - Could open the season as Philly's starter
[2] #Sage Rosenfels HOU 29.5 - Sources claiming he'll have a shot to start; I'm not buying it
[2] Dan Orlovsky DET 24.1 - Martz favorite
[2] Josh McCown DET 28.2
[2]Kurt Warner ARI 36.2 - After QB #50, no one else is as likely to be as startable if they get a shot at playing time
[2] Bruce Gradkowski TB 24.6 - Possesses some obvious strengths, some egregious weaknesses
[2] Derek Anderson CLE 24.2 - Could play his way into reliable back-up role
[2] Charlie Whitehurst SD 25.1 - Rivers' back-up starting in '07?
TIER EIGHT
[1] Gus Frerotte STL 36.1 - Rams offense could make him startable if Bulger goes down with injury
[1] Andrew Walter OAK 25.3 - Awful '06 but not much help from the O-Line or the coaching staff; either way, not the answer
[1] Joey Harrington [MIA] 28.9 [uFA] - Your starting days are over
[1] Billy Volek SD 31.4 - Due a sizable roster bonus in March; could be cut
[1] Marques Tuiasosopo OAK 28.5 [uFA]
[1] D.J. Shockley ATL 24.5
[1] Tim Rattay [TB] 30.5 [uFA]
[1] Brooks Bollinger MIN 27.8 - Good chance of playing time in '07?
[1] Kyle Orton CHI 24.8
[1] Charlie Batch PIT 32.8
[1] Brad Johnson DAL 39.0
[1] #Mark Brunell WAS 37.0
[1] Kerry Collins TEN 34.7
[1] David Greene SEA 25.2
[1] Brett Basanez CAR 24.3
Cocaine is a hell of a drugAlexander and Portis ahead of Jackson and Bush.
That's a helluva job you did. ThanksTrying something new here to try to better reflect value. Feedback please. Should I continue this with the other positions or just ditch the whole experiment?
Below are tiered dynasty quarterback rankings based on a 100 scale.
QUARTERBACKS
TIER ONE
[100] Peyton Manning IND 31.5 - No-brainer
[89] Carson Palmer CIN 27.7
TIER TWO
[76] Drew Brees NO 28.6 - Better QB than I thought, Sean Payton = fantasy gold?
[74] Tom Brady NE 30.1 - Stallworth as a playmaker & Welker in the Troy Brown role; pushes Caldwell & Gaffney back down the depth chart where they belong.
[72] #Donovan McNabb PHI 30.7 - 1st half fantasy MVP + dynamic scorer + emergence of Reggie Brown & possibly Hank Baskett vs. health questions + Stallworth's exit + running numbers likely to fall off
[71] Vince Young TEN 24.3 - Could go higher if you're drafting from scratch; could go lower if you're going for it all and prefer the more reliable Bulger in '07
[70] Marc Bulger STL 30.4 - Could be top 5 with addition of Bennett; not much difference in value from #3 to #8 here.
[69] Michael Vick ATL 27.2 - I went into the offseason very high on Vick compared to the guys ahead of him, but I like what the Patriots & Rams have added to help their QBs. I still like Vick, especially if you can get him on the cheap while other owners are blaming him & his airport incident for the defense's collapse & poor WR play.
[64] Ben Roethlisberger PIT 25.5 - Special talent, poor season, most underrated QB in dynasty leagues
[61] Matt Leinart ARI 24.3
[56] Philip Rivers SD 25.8
[52] #Matt Hasselbeck SEA 32.0 - Will he get back to '05 heights with the offense aging and the WRs possibly in flux?
TIER THREE
[46] Jay Cutler DEN 24.3 - Haven't seen enough yet to move him up to the more reliable tier
[43] Byron Leftwich JAX 27.6 - Buy low on him this offseason; you will be rewarded
[41] Eli Manning NYG 26.6 - Skittish in pocket, prone to long stretches of unbearable play, possible confidence issues, loss of Tiki
[39] Tony Romo DAL 27.4 - Return to earth in '07; Parcells was right: the anointing oils were out in full force way too soon
[38] Alex Smith SF 23.3 - Has youth on his side, but seemed to take a step backwards in the 2nd half of the season
[30] #Daunte Culpepper MIA 30.5 - the ultimate gamble
Jake Delhomme CAR 32.6 - Will remain starter in '07, but now more placeholder than franchise QB; bounceback year in '07?
TIER FOUR
[23] Jon Kitna DET 35.0 - DET not likely to go for Quinn, Kitna could easily produce top 10 numbers again, but could also hit the bench at any time. Bottom line: still eminently startable...and could be for a couple years.
[21] Jason Campbell WAS 25.6 - Will Snyder/Gibbs operation be patient enough to go with Campbell in '07?
[19] J.P. Losman BUF 26.5 - Need to see another year of improvement; I don't think his ceiling is much higher than his '06 production
[17] Jake Delhomme CAR 32.6 - Will remain starter in '07, but now more placeholder than franchise QB; bounceback year in '07?
[16] Brett Favre GB 37.9 - Still very startable most weeks...GB adding Moss?
[14] Chad Pennington NYJ 31.2 - Looking less likely to lose his job to Clemens...barring injury of course
[13] Matt Schaub [ATL] 26.2 [RFA] - Being Volek-ed on these boards…likely in ATL one more year; how good is he?
[11] Tarvaris Jackson MIN 24.4 - Has shown poise, strong arm & athleticism, but lacks accuracy & polish; will MIN bring in a vet or draft Quinn?
[11] Rex Grossman CHI 27.0 - Bears have a Super Bowl window of a couple of years...Rex is not the right man for the job
TIER FIVE
[8] Charlie Frye CLE 26.0 - Crennel on hot seat could mean a veteran acquisition
[8] David Carr [HOU] 28.1 [TRADE] - As good as gone from HOU
[7] Damon Huard KC 34.2 - Re-signed with KC, presumably to be the starter
[7] Steve McNair BAL 34.5 - No longer startable; how much left in the tank?
[7] Kellen Clemens NYJ 24.3 - May be at least another year away
[7] Trent Green [KC] 37.2 [CUT/TRADE] - There are some openings out there; He could definitely compete to start elsewhere...could have some life left if he ends up in the right situation
[6] David Garrard [JAX] 29.5 - I think he'll be traded and will probably have a shot to start elsewhere
[6] Cleo Lemon MIA 28.1 [RFA] - Will compete with Culpepper for starting job, should know Cameron's system
TIER SIX
[4] Brodie Croyle KC 24.5 - Chiefs still talking him up, but I don't think he'll play unless Huard gets injured or underproduces
[4] Seneca Wallace SEA 27.1 - Seahawks looking to get what they can for him this offseason?
[4] Kyle Boller BAL 26.3 - Could he take over for McNair during '07 season? Trade with CAR?
[4] Brian Griese CHI 32.5 - Would have given the Bears a better shot in the Super Bowl
[4] Jeff Garcia TB 37.5 - I'm not crazy about Garcia or Simms: Garcia is getting far too much credit for a solid month's play after 3 piss poor seasons; TB's offense is bottom of the barrel, and it doesn't look like help is on the way...despite what you're reading in mock drafts, there's no way Calvin Johnson makes it to #4.
[3] Aaron Rodgers GB 23.8 - Won't see the field for another year...unless he gets traded to OAK
[3] Patrick Ramsey DEN 28.5 - Could perform very nicely if Cutler stutters or gets injured
[3] Quinn Gray JAX 28.3 [RFA] - Would like to sign elsewhere, but JAX placed 2nd round tender
[3] Chris Simms TB 27.0 - Backup material; even if he somehow manages to start the season, he'll be benched for Garcia early on
TIER SEVEN
[2] Drew Bledsoe [DAL] 35.5 [uFA] - Retirement? Oakland? Back-up elsewhere?
[2] Aaron Brooks [OAK] 31.5 [uFA] - QBs who can't complete 58% & turn the ball over aren't long for starting…just ask Kerry Collins & Drew Bledsoe
[2] Matt Cassel NE 25.3
[2] A.J. Feeley PHI 30.3 - Could open the season as Philly's starter
[2] #Sage Rosenfels HOU 29.5 - Sources claiming he'll have a shot to start; I'm not buying it
[2] Dan Orlovsky DET 24.1 - Martz favorite
[2] Josh McCown DET 28.2
[2]Kurt Warner ARI 36.2 - After QB #50, no one else is as likely to be as startable if they get a shot at playing time
[2] Bruce Gradkowski TB 24.6 - Possesses some obvious strengths, some egregious weaknesses
[2] Derek Anderson CLE 24.2 - Could play his way into reliable back-up role
[2] Charlie Whitehurst SD 25.1 - Rivers' back-up starting in '07?
TIER EIGHT
[1] Gus Frerotte STL 36.1 - Rams offense could make him startable if Bulger goes down with injury
[1] Andrew Walter OAK 25.3 - Awful '06 but not much help from the O-Line or the coaching staff; either way, not the answer
[1] Joey Harrington [MIA] 28.9 [uFA] - Your starting days are over
[1] Billy Volek SD 31.4 - Due a sizable roster bonus in March; could be cut
[1] Marques Tuiasosopo OAK 28.5 [uFA]
[1] D.J. Shockley ATL 24.5
[1] Tim Rattay [TB] 30.5 [uFA]
[1] Brooks Bollinger MIN 27.8 - Good chance of playing time in '07?
[1] Kyle Orton CHI 24.8
[1] Charlie Batch PIT 32.8
[1] Brad Johnson DAL 39.0
[1] #Mark Brunell WAS 37.0
[1] Kerry Collins TEN 34.7
[1] David Greene SEA 25.2
[1] Brett Basanez CAR 24.3
Actually, I've never used it so I wouldn't know. Apperently you're under the influence of something since you can't read the date that comment was posted.Cocaine is a hell of a drugAlexander and Portis ahead of Jackson and Bush.
Great stuff! Continue please.Trying something new here to try to better reflect value. Feedback please. Should I continue this with the other positions or just ditch the whole experiment?
Below are tiered dynasty quarterback rankings based on a 100 scale.
QUARTERBACKS
TIER ONE
[100] Peyton Manning IND 31.5 - No-brainer
[89] Carson Palmer CIN 27.7
TIER TWO
[76] Drew Brees NO 28.6 - Better QB than I thought, Sean Payton = fantasy gold?
[74] Tom Brady NE 30.1 - Stallworth as a playmaker & Welker in the Troy Brown role; pushes Caldwell & Gaffney back down the depth chart where they belong.
[72] #Donovan McNabb PHI 30.7 - 1st half fantasy MVP + dynamic scorer + emergence of Reggie Brown & possibly Hank Baskett vs. health questions + Stallworth's exit + running numbers likely to fall off
[71] Vince Young TEN 24.3 - Could go higher if you're drafting from scratch; could go lower if you're going for it all and prefer the more reliable Bulger in '07
[70] Marc Bulger STL 30.4 - Could be top 5 with addition of Bennett; not much difference in value from #3 to #8 here.
[69] Michael Vick ATL 27.2 - I went into the offseason very high on Vick compared to the guys ahead of him, but I like what the Patriots & Rams have added to help their QBs. I still like Vick, especially if you can get him on the cheap while other owners are blaming him & his airport incident for the defense's collapse & poor WR play.
[64] Ben Roethlisberger PIT 25.5 - Special talent, poor season, most underrated QB in dynasty leagues
[61] Matt Leinart ARI 24.3
[56] Philip Rivers SD 25.8
[52] #Matt Hasselbeck SEA 32.0 - Will he get back to '05 heights with the offense aging and the WRs possibly in flux?
TIER THREE
[46] Jay Cutler DEN 24.3 - Haven't seen enough yet to move him up to the more reliable tier
[43] Byron Leftwich JAX 27.6 - Buy low on him this offseason; you will be rewarded
[41] Eli Manning NYG 26.6 - Skittish in pocket, prone to long stretches of unbearable play, possible confidence issues, loss of Tiki
[39] Tony Romo DAL 27.4 - Return to earth in '07; Parcells was right: the anointing oils were out in full force way too soon
[38] Alex Smith SF 23.3 - Has youth on his side, but seemed to take a step backwards in the 2nd half of the season
[30] #Daunte Culpepper MIA 30.5 - the ultimate gamble
Jake Delhomme CAR 32.6 - Will remain starter in '07, but now more placeholder than franchise QB; bounceback year in '07?
TIER FOUR
[23] Jon Kitna DET 35.0 - DET not likely to go for Quinn, Kitna could easily produce top 10 numbers again, but could also hit the bench at any time. Bottom line: still eminently startable...and could be for a couple years.
[21] Jason Campbell WAS 25.6 - Will Snyder/Gibbs operation be patient enough to go with Campbell in '07?
[19] J.P. Losman BUF 26.5 - Need to see another year of improvement; I don't think his ceiling is much higher than his '06 production
[17] Jake Delhomme CAR 32.6 - Will remain starter in '07, but now more placeholder than franchise QB; bounceback year in '07?
[16] Brett Favre GB 37.9 - Still very startable most weeks...GB adding Moss?
[14] Chad Pennington NYJ 31.2 - Looking less likely to lose his job to Clemens...barring injury of course
[13] Matt Schaub [ATL] 26.2 [RFA] - Being Volek-ed on these boards…likely in ATL one more year; how good is he?
[11] Tarvaris Jackson MIN 24.4 - Has shown poise, strong arm & athleticism, but lacks accuracy & polish; will MIN bring in a vet or draft Quinn?
[11] Rex Grossman CHI 27.0 - Bears have a Super Bowl window of a couple of years...Rex is not the right man for the job
TIER FIVE
[8] Charlie Frye CLE 26.0 - Crennel on hot seat could mean a veteran acquisition
[8] David Carr [HOU] 28.1 [TRADE] - As good as gone from HOU
[7] Damon Huard KC 34.2 - Re-signed with KC, presumably to be the starter
[7] Steve McNair BAL 34.5 - No longer startable; how much left in the tank?
[7] Kellen Clemens NYJ 24.3 - May be at least another year away
[7] Trent Green [KC] 37.2 [CUT/TRADE] - There are some openings out there; He could definitely compete to start elsewhere...could have some life left if he ends up in the right situation
[6] David Garrard [JAX] 29.5 - I think he'll be traded and will probably have a shot to start elsewhere
[6] Cleo Lemon MIA 28.1 [RFA] - Will compete with Culpepper for starting job, should know Cameron's system
TIER SIX
[4] Brodie Croyle KC 24.5 - Chiefs still talking him up, but I don't think he'll play unless Huard gets injured or underproduces
[4] Seneca Wallace SEA 27.1 - Seahawks looking to get what they can for him this offseason?
[4] Kyle Boller BAL 26.3 - Could he take over for McNair during '07 season? Trade with CAR?
[4] Brian Griese CHI 32.5 - Would have given the Bears a better shot in the Super Bowl
[4] Jeff Garcia TB 37.5 - I'm not crazy about Garcia or Simms: Garcia is getting far too much credit for a solid month's play after 3 piss poor seasons; TB's offense is bottom of the barrel, and it doesn't look like help is on the way...despite what you're reading in mock drafts, there's no way Calvin Johnson makes it to #4.
[3] Aaron Rodgers GB 23.8 - Won't see the field for another year...unless he gets traded to OAK
[3] Patrick Ramsey DEN 28.5 - Could perform very nicely if Cutler stutters or gets injured
[3] Quinn Gray JAX 28.3 [RFA] - Would like to sign elsewhere, but JAX placed 2nd round tender
[3] Chris Simms TB 27.0 - Backup material; even if he somehow manages to start the season, he'll be benched for Garcia early on
TIER SEVEN
[2] Drew Bledsoe [DAL] 35.5 [uFA] - Retirement? Oakland? Back-up elsewhere?
[2] Aaron Brooks [OAK] 31.5 [uFA] - QBs who can't complete 58% & turn the ball over aren't long for starting…just ask Kerry Collins & Drew Bledsoe
[2] Matt Cassel NE 25.3
[2] A.J. Feeley PHI 30.3 - Could open the season as Philly's starter
[2] #Sage Rosenfels HOU 29.5 - Sources claiming he'll have a shot to start; I'm not buying it
[2] Dan Orlovsky DET 24.1 - Martz favorite
[2] Josh McCown DET 28.2
[2]Kurt Warner ARI 36.2 - After QB #50, no one else is as likely to be as startable if they get a shot at playing time
[2] Bruce Gradkowski TB 24.6 - Possesses some obvious strengths, some egregious weaknesses
[2] Derek Anderson CLE 24.2 - Could play his way into reliable back-up role
[2] Charlie Whitehurst SD 25.1 - Rivers' back-up starting in '07?
TIER EIGHT
[1] Gus Frerotte STL 36.1 - Rams offense could make him startable if Bulger goes down with injury
[1] Andrew Walter OAK 25.3 - Awful '06 but not much help from the O-Line or the coaching staff; either way, not the answer
[1] Joey Harrington [MIA] 28.9 [uFA] - Your starting days are over
[1] Billy Volek SD 31.4 - Due a sizable roster bonus in March; could be cut
[1] Marques Tuiasosopo OAK 28.5 [uFA]
[1] D.J. Shockley ATL 24.5
[1] Tim Rattay [TB] 30.5 [uFA]
[1] Brooks Bollinger MIN 27.8 - Good chance of playing time in '07?
[1] Kyle Orton CHI 24.8
[1] Charlie Batch PIT 32.8
[1] Brad Johnson DAL 39.0
[1] #Mark Brunell WAS 37.0
[1] Kerry Collins TEN 34.7
[1] David Greene SEA 25.2
[1] Brett Basanez CAR 24.3
I really like the point values. Each position will have it's own 100 point value? (LT2 will = 100 for Rbs? or will he, for example, equal 400?)I think it's great that you are ranking Kickers and Defenses ( Hint, hint @ FBGs)Not a criticism but why have tiers if you are assigning them a relative score? It seems the scores have a self tiering effect.Great stuff!Trying something new here to try to better reflect value. Feedback please. Should I continue this with the other positions or just ditch the whole experiment?Below are tiered dynasty quarterback rankings based on a 100 scale.
Yes, each positions will have its own 100 point value, i.e. LT2 = 100 pts, Steve Smith = 95 pts, Antonio Gates = 100 pts. *Edit to add: I am very resistant to a weighted scale on an overall ranking as opposed to position by position. League rules, set-ups and scoring systems are still so disparate that I think trying an overall weighted ranking that could suit everybody's tastes would be fruitless. I've been in QB-heavy leagues where the highest scoring players are always QBs, and I've been in basic scoring leagues where the highest scoring kickers match the highest scoring QBs. Regarding tiers, I'm not sure I have a good answer for you. You're right that the scores have a self-tiering effect, but the tiers kind of broke themselves down pretty easily for me. I guess the tiers really highlight where the gaps are.I'll get to work on RBs. Thanks for the feedback guys.TeamDingo said:I really like the point values. Each position will have it's own 100 point value? (LT2 will = 100 for Rbs? or will he, for example, equal 400?)I think it's great that you are ranking Kickers and Defenses ( Hint, hint @ FBGs)Not a criticism but why have tiers if you are assigning them a relative score? It seems the scores have a self tiering effect.Great stuff!Fear & Loathing said:Trying something new here to try to better reflect value. Feedback please. Should I continue this with the other positions or just ditch the whole experiment?Below are tiered dynasty quarterback rankings based on a 100 scale.
Lee Evans is way tooooo high... Losman factor...And you are a TO hater[75] Lee Evans BUF 26.5 - Has blossomed into a true #1 WR rather than just an occasional deep threat
[68] Terrell Owens DAL 33.8 - Produces wherever he goes, but becoming more & more of a gamble by the year
In my 3 leagues, Evans ranked as the #4, #5, and #7 (I'm not sure about FBG scoring) WR last year. Unless you think Losman will get worse, or losing McGahee will kill the offense, I don't see how #8 on this list is "tooooo high... " I won't say it's too low, as the 7 above are all exceptional as well, but he should be in tier one IMO.Lee Evans is way tooooo high... Losman factor...[75] Lee Evans BUF 26.5 - Has blossomed into a true #1 WR rather than just an occasional deep threat
You do realize this is a dynasty ranking correct? Losman played pretty well last year. There are bigger QB question marks about some of the guys higher than him, particularly AJ and Roy. Evans had 800 yards and 6 TDs in the last 8 games last year, only one of those games with less than 50 yards.Lee Evans is way tooooo high... Losman factor...And you are a TO hater[75] Lee Evans BUF 26.5 - Has blossomed into a true #1 WR rather than just an occasional deep threat
[68] Terrell Owens DAL 33.8 - Produces wherever he goes, but becoming more & more of a gamble by the year
Fair enough on the rookies. This is my first dynasty off season so I am really thankful for your posts.A couple questions though.Looks like you are saying that you almost can not over pay to move up and get one of the top 2 picks, is that a fair representation of how much you like Johnson and Peterson?My dynasty league gives ridiculous points for return yards (Wes Welker was a top 5 WR), Do you think Ginn's speed and skills will translate ( ala Hester) immediately in the return game even if he struggles as a WR?Thanks again.Thanks for all of the feedback, guys. As I've mentioned before, it definitely makes it easier to find the motivation for this kind of effort when feedback is involved. to us.Team Dingo: I just noticed your comment on rookie stuff. How should I word this...I've learned to trust my instincts on the high end rookies, but my honest opinion of college football is that it's a complete & utter joke of a sport. Here's the sum of my original thoughts on the rookie class: I have seen enough of Calvin Johnson & Adrian Peterson to feel secure in my judgment that they're both elite, elite NFL talents...no matter how good you think they are, chances are I think they're better than that. I've seen enough of Troy Smith to know that he's one of the toughest competitors and true leaders to come into the league in awhile. Does that mean he'll be a great NFL QB? No clue. I've seen enough of Ted Ginn Jr. to know that nobody else on the field can catch him, but I don't know how his football skills will translate to the NFL. Beyond that, I don't have much of an opinion because if I'm spending a Saturday in front of the TV, I'd much rather waste it watching Man vs. Wild or Mythbusters or that cute Samantha chick on the Travel Channel than watching kids playing football for the local academic institution. To that end, I wouldn't feel comfortable with other people relying on me as a credible source of knowledge on most of the rookies -- especially when you've got guys like Bloom, Andy Dufresne, Chaos Commish, Colin, et al. around here who truly are at the guru level.I'll try to get to the WR's tonight...no promises though.
I would have to lean towards another 1-2 tiers in this top batch myself if not after Gates alone then somewhere between Shockey and Watson perhaps.TIGHT ENDS
TIER ONE
[100] Antonio Gates SD 27.3 - Another no-brainer
[86] Todd Heap BAL 27.5 - Doesn't seem to be slowed much by constant nagging injuries
[79] Tony Gonzalez KC 31.5 - Top-notch for another year or two
[76] Vernon Davis SF 23.5 - Major upside, looked great down the stretch
[70] Jeremy Shockey NYG 27.1 - Up & down with Eli's roller coaster play & constant injuries
[69] Ben Watson NE 26.7 - Vernon Davis like physical freak, dominant at times, needs consistency
[67] Alge Crumpler ATL 29.7 - Keeps producing, coming on age 30
[66] Chris Cooley WAS 25.2 - Steady
[63] #Kellen Winslow II CLE 24.1 - Microfracture surgery, aging quickly
[61] Jason Witten DAL 25.4 - Must find the end zone more often
TIER TWO
60-100 is a big tierI would have to lean towards another 1-2 tiers in this top batch myself if not after Gates alone then somewhere between Shockey and Watson perhaps.TIGHT ENDS
TIER ONE
[100] Antonio Gates SD 27.3 - Another no-brainer
[86] Todd Heap BAL 27.5 - Doesn't seem to be slowed much by constant nagging injuries
[79] Tony Gonzalez KC 31.5 - Top-notch for another year or two
[76] Vernon Davis SF 23.5 - Major upside, looked great down the stretch
[70] Jeremy Shockey NYG 27.1 - Up & down with Eli's roller coaster play & constant injuries
[69] Ben Watson NE 26.7 - Vernon Davis like physical freak, dominant at times, needs consistency
[67] Alge Crumpler ATL 29.7 - Keeps producing, coming on age 30
[66] Chris Cooley WAS 25.2 - Steady
[63] #Kellen Winslow II CLE 24.1 - Microfracture surgery, aging quickly
[61] Jason Witten DAL 25.4 - Must find the end zone more often
TIER TWO
Fair question. Let's see here...I used to toy around with those kinds of point scales based on handing out 1-10 points per category and tallying them all up to see who goes where. There are several problems with these systems. First of all, not all categories are created equal. Secondly, it's an unscientific grade that you're assigning each category, so it's nonsensical to aim for a scientific outcome. Finally, I'm never satisfied with the outcomes. For example, somebody like Culpepper will end up finishing way too high. And then you have to start fudging with the numbers to get him lower. Then if you're fudging his, you end up messing with a few others as well. To sum up, I've found those types of scales to be literally more trouble than the spreadsheet they're printed on are worth.Frankly, these rankings are not very scientific. There are two reasons for that. First, the goal is not a complex one: per requests in other dynasty threads, I'm simply trying to better represent value by showing where the gaps are and using a system that assigns value much better than a simple 1 thru 75 numbering sequence. Secondly, I think we're overloaded with numbers, studies, etc. anymore. Ten years ago, most of us in this thread dominated all of our leagues strictly as a result of having more information than the other guys in our leagues. The internet changed all of that now. Everybody has access to quality information on a regular basis. Fantasy football studies are ubiquitous...especially on this site (which is a great thing). So what happens when everybody is looking at the same studies? Opinions vary much less because we tend to fall in line behind "proof" and hesitantly push our instincts and gut-feelings to the side. How then do we gain an edge on the guys looking at the same information?My theory is this: if we all have ready access to the same information, how do you gain an edge on the upper echelon competition? Instincts honed by knowledge, which is honed by news updates, stats, trends and studies. That's what these rankings are in a nutshell. Instincts. There's no statistical or scientific basis to the numbers, but rather an attempt at showing differences in value as I perceive them.How did you create this point scale 1-100 for each player? And what does it mean?I have seen magazines that use somting similar for players. The point scale is ushualy based off of ranking the players by different skill sets such as inside running/outside running/blocking/catching/breaking tackles ect. Then they add all these 1-10 with decimal point scales together for a total score or make an average of that.Curious about what is behind your point scale.Great thread Fear and Loathing.
Oz summed up Lee Evans pretty well by showing that he's already scoring in the top 5-7, so a ranking of 8 is far from "tooooo high."But I would add that I'm with you on Losman. I'm not a believer. I think he played as well in the 2nd half of last season as he will from here on out. I think he's as good now as he's going to get, and I'm not overly impressed with where he's at now. But my point on Evans is this: remember those old arguments in the '80s & '90s? Does Rice make Montana a better QB than he really is? Does Montana make Rice a better WR than he really is? Ditto Young & Rice. Well, it's my belief that Lee Evans, more than any WR in the league, makes his QB look like a better QB than he actually is. Lee Evans is a very good WR.Lee Evans is way tooooo high... Losman factor...And you are a TO hater[75] Lee Evans BUF 26.5 - Has blossomed into a true #1 WR rather than just an occasional deep threat
[68] Terrell Owens DAL 33.8 - Produces wherever he goes, but becoming more & more of a gamble by the year
I think it's possible to overpay. Obviously, I wouldn't be giving up guys like Tomlinson, Steven Jackson, L.J., etc. to move up. It's tough to accurately gauge those guys until we find out where they're playing, but I would seriously put Peterson at #6 among RBs in most situations. If the Raiders draft Calvin Johnson, it would knock him down a few pegs in my book. I love Larry Fitzgerald. I traded Moss for him after his rookie season, and I can't see him not being on my team. But I don't think there's any doubt that Calvin Johnson is more talented than Fitz. In the right situation, I could see Calvin Johnson as the #1 or #2 dynasty WR.Do I think Ginn's speed will translate immediately in the return game? Yes. I don't think he'll go Hester on the league because Hester has only happened once in the history of the league. And it remains to be seen how Ginn will be used by his team, but I do think his speed will translate in the return game.Fair enough on the rookies. This is my first dynasty off season so I am really thankful for your posts.A couple questions though.Looks like you are saying that you almost can not over pay to move up and get one of the top 2 picks, is that a fair representation of how much you like Johnson and Peterson?My dynasty league gives ridiculous points for return yards (Wes Welker was a top 5 WR), Do you think Ginn's speed and skills will translate ( ala Hester) immediately in the return game even if he struggles as a WR?Thanks again.Thanks for all of the feedback, guys. As I've mentioned before, it definitely makes it easier to find the motivation for this kind of effort when feedback is involved. to us.Team Dingo: I just noticed your comment on rookie stuff. How should I word this...I've learned to trust my instincts on the high end rookies, but my honest opinion of college football is that it's a complete & utter joke of a sport. Here's the sum of my original thoughts on the rookie class: I have seen enough of Calvin Johnson & Adrian Peterson to feel secure in my judgment that they're both elite, elite NFL talents...no matter how good you think they are, chances are I think they're better than that. I've seen enough of Troy Smith to know that he's one of the toughest competitors and true leaders to come into the league in awhile. Does that mean he'll be a great NFL QB? No clue. I've seen enough of Ted Ginn Jr. to know that nobody else on the field can catch him, but I don't know how his football skills will translate to the NFL. Beyond that, I don't have much of an opinion because if I'm spending a Saturday in front of the TV, I'd much rather waste it watching Man vs. Wild or Mythbusters or that cute Samantha chick on the Travel Channel than watching kids playing football for the local academic institution. To that end, I wouldn't feel comfortable with other people relying on me as a credible source of knowledge on most of the rookies -- especially when you've got guys like Bloom, Andy Dufresne, Chaos Commish, Colin, et al. around here who truly are at the guru level.I'll try to get to the WR's tonight...no promises though.
Thanks for the comments.I'd say that part of this is TE's are a unique position relative to the others. You're only using one, and there are only about 20-22 at any given time that have any real value. Those 10 guys in Tier One are all there because all 10 of them could be the #2 TE for the next couple of seasons. If you have any one of these ten TE's, then you are set at the TE position. After these ten guys, there are questions about whether you are actually set at that position or not.60-100 is a big tierI would have to lean towards another 1-2 tiers in this top batch myself if not after Gates alone then somewhere between Shockey and Watson perhaps.TIGHT ENDS
TIER ONE
[100] Antonio Gates SD 27.3 - Another no-brainer
[86] Todd Heap BAL 27.5 - Doesn't seem to be slowed much by constant nagging injuries
[79] Tony Gonzalez KC 31.5 - Top-notch for another year or two
[76] Vernon Davis SF 23.5 - Major upside, looked great down the stretch
[70] Jeremy Shockey NYG 27.1 - Up & down with Eli's roller coaster play & constant injuries
[69] Ben Watson NE 26.7 - Vernon Davis like physical freak, dominant at times, needs consistency
[67] Alge Crumpler ATL 29.7 - Keeps producing, coming on age 30
[66] Chris Cooley WAS 25.2 - Steady
[63] #Kellen Winslow II CLE 24.1 - Microfracture surgery, aging quickly
[61] Jason Witten DAL 25.4 - Must find the end zone more often
TIER TWO
Thanks for all of the positive reinforcement, Driver (and others). It's always nice to know the work is appreciated. I lost my kicker & Def. rankings from the front page...I think the original post got too long, and it kicked them out. I'll try to work on them soon, but this is a bad weekend for wasting time on fantasy football. St. Patrick's Day weekend in Savannah is like the minor league version of Mardi Gras in New Orleans -- an area of 150,000 swells to well over a million.Again, great, great thread IMO. Thanks much for all your work and for sharing your insights, F&L. Your efforts are greatly appreciated by many here.
No questioning of the rankings from me. Whenever I'm kind of surprised where you have someone, I review all the evidence -- and I wind up agreeing with you.
Uh, ... F&L ... , would you mind deleting this thread? (now that I've got QB/RB/WR/TE printed out)
I beat you to it. See above...I like Curtis more than most, and I like his fit in Philly. I think he's squarely in the Cotchery-Berrian-Santonio Holmes section of WRs. As the Kevin Curtis thread pointed out, he's commonly misperceived as a pesky little white possession WR like a Brian Brennan or Tom Waddle. He's actually one of the fastest WRs in the league and should be able to replace Stallworth as the deep threat.Edit to add: I play in a playoff-included league where we keep 11 guys with a limit of 4 per position (WR/TE counts as one position). As of right now, I'm going to have to decide on my 4th WR/TE from a group of Vincent Jackson, Dante Stallworth, Kevin Curtis & L.J. Smith. I'm leaning towards Jackson or Curtis while trying to deal Stallworth & Smith for draft picks.Kevin Curtis signed with the Eagles where would he be ranked?
I agree 100%. If I can't get one of the top-7 WRs, then I really will try to get either Evans or Walker or Colston or Boldin. I almost consider Harrison, TO, HWard and RMoss to be a 3rd tier -- only because of age for Marvin and TO, uncertainty about Moss (even if he goes to GB), and Ward being undervalued and usually dropping anyway.The bottom line with T.O. is that he's always a risk for suspension, or walking away, or something even more bizarre that I'm not creative enough to figure out. On top of that, he's almost 34 years old. Age and unreliability are two alarming negatives. I'd take him on my team, and I think the guys who took him in the recent dynasty drafts on these boards, have made outstanding picks. But as a general rule, the guys I've ranked ahead of him are younger, very talented and altogether "safer."
Yup, I'd concur with that theory. My analogy would be a chess master. What distinguishes the very highest-level chess masters is an intuitive ability to assess the current position of a chessboard and determine the best move through evaluation of hundreds of possibilities involving many sequences of future moves. It requires (1) substantial experience, (2) mental processing of tons of information, and (3) the correct interpretation of complex patterns. But it comes down to a gut feeling, or instinct, that a certain decision (or ranking) is correct.I'm not in that category, but I appreciate the work of someone who is. Thanks again for sharing your thoughts and insights.My theory is this: if we all have ready access to the same information, how do you gain an edge on the upper echelon competition? Instincts honed by knowledge, which is honed by news updates, stats, trends and studies. That's what these rankings are in a nutshell. Instincts. There's no statistical or scientific basis to the numbers, but rather an attempt at showing differences in value as I perceive them.
Also wanted to chime in that your work is greatly appreciated. I've been a long-time FF owner, but this is my first crack at dynasty to it's nice to see some general perspective of how much youth & potential really matter. I don't have the dynasty experience yet to properly assess Oh, and you should come to NYC for St. Patty's. That's like the Pro Bowl version of Mardi GrasI lost my kicker & Def. rankings from the front page...I think the original post got too long, and it kicked them out. I'll try to work on them soon, but this is a bad weekend for wasting time on fantasy football. St. Patrick's Day weekend in Savannah is like the minor league version of Mardi Gras in New Orleans -- an area of 150,000 swells to well over a million.
Starting Friday night Thursday night, I will be :X
Not the recipe for a productive weekend.