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I'm going to be revisiting this one shortly in light of the dog fighting scandal. It looks like there's a possibility of suspension there, which would definitely affect Vick's value. So much for turning things around...
I couldn't agree more since I've been making the same arguments and just took MJD #8 in a dynasty startup. But why do you have Bush #3 and MJD #12? Bush is currently sharing carries with a better RB than Jones-Drew and hasn't shown he can run b/w the tackles yet either. And while sentiment here has seen Taylor morph from Fragile Freddie into Superman in the last 12 months, I think it's pretty unlikely Taylor's around beyond this year, and that MJD will also get the full load sooner than Bush.
1. I think Bush is more talented. 2. There's a good possibly that Bush will catch close to 2x as many passes per season as MJD.
I think the only difference we've got is that I'm not convinced Bush will ever be a team's primary rusher. Not saying he won't, just that there's some risk there.
I agree. I think if you're looking for a reason not to like Bush, that's a valid risk. Even so, he's going to catch an inordinate number of passes to the point where he's basically slump-proof. You don't have to worry about him throwing up a zero even when he's not running well (and if anything is unacceptable, it's a zero). Additionally, I think Sean Payton is a creative enough offensive mind to take advantage of Bush's strengths in the running game and diminish any weaknesses.
F&L,Thanks much for your hard work in updating all the rankings (and including rookies). Much appreciated. My draft started Saturday morning. I posted this summary (through 11 rounds) in another thread:So how did this weekend's drafts go for everybody?Let's hear it.
This 12-team league is RB-heavy with no ppr for RBs, 0.5 ppr for WR/TE, and starters = QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, TE, flex (RB/WR/TE), D and K. I relied heavily on your rankings to determine my selections at each pick. Thanks again.Charley said:
. Probably a bad move, but I'm a Nebraska homer and I couldn't resist. Plus, no other decent RB's were still on the board.
Charley, Thanks. I think you did a great job on your draft, but you were using my rankings...so go figure, eh?I like quite a bit about your draft, but possibly the best thing you did was to cover your risks. Vick looks more and more like a risk by the day...fortunately Kitna is as good as it gets in '07 for starter insurance. Leftwich is going to be one of the top bargain bin QBs in dynasty as well redraft.I would have stayed at 2.01 and gone with Ronnie Brown, but that's more of a gut feeling on my part than anything tangible. As it is, you've got two talented young RBs in MJD & D.Williams. Williams may well be slow to take hold of the job, but Travis Henry should be more than startable in the mean time. Bell is solid late round insurance.You're not exactly dynamic at WR, but I actually think you'll be fine there especially in a flex league. Evans and Brown are definitely every week players. Jones is a nice boom or bust pick. I like to have a couple of those every draft. As long as I'm OK on my starters, I'd rather go risky with my reserves. Bennett may or may not see your lineup much, but I like his situation in dynasty leagues much better than redraft.The move to pick up Vernon Davis was smart. He looks like a difference maker in dynasty leagues.The Pats are an easy Top-5 defense in my mind.F&L,Thanks much for your hard work in updating all the rankings (and including rookies). Much appreciated. My draft started Saturday morning. I posted this summary (through 11 rounds) in another thread:So how did this weekend's drafts go for everybody?Let's hear it.
This 12-team league is RB-heavy with no ppr for RBs, 0.5 ppr for WR/TE, and starters = QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, TE, flex (RB/WR/TE), D and K. I relied heavily on your rankings to determine my selections at each pick. Thanks again.Charley said:
You're very solid at QB, but I would have stayed with Manning & Andre Johnson. It's not like you got taken or anything. I just never believe in trading elite talent for depth. If I have Manning, I'm keeping him and rounding out my team around him. On the other hand, there's nothing that says Brees can't outscore him this year. Just personal preference on my part. Manning is such a sure thing, and there aren't many of them at any position.I think you're OK at RB. LJ is a stud, but that KC situation has me slightly worried...probably more than I should be as dominant as LJ has been the past couple of years. Duece is a "meh" RB to me. I don't see much upside, but he should be a reliable #2 anyway. Jackson is an interesting wild card.Your WRs are dominant. Three #1's and all 3 are top 15 WRs in my opinion. Berrian is a very fine #4. Heath Miller: I can't get a good read on him. He's clearly talented and was extremely impressive as a rookie but took a step back last season. I don't know if Spaeth is a threat to take receptions from him, but I do think at 6'7" and the Steelers' penchant for using their back-up TE's as sneaky redszone receivers, he might swipe a few TDs. Who knows?Chargers D is elite. They could end up #1. I wonder if Sproles will be healthy enough to help the return game this year?I also used your rankings quite a bit in selecting my team:1 PPR, 6 pt per TD, 1 pt/25 passing yds, 1 pt/10 rushing/receiving yardsstart 1 QB, 1 RB, 2 WR, 2 WR/RB/TE, 1 TE, 1 K, 1 DQB - Brees, LeftwichRB - LJ, Deuce, Brandon JacksonWR - Evans, Chad Johnson, Ward, BerrianTE - Heath MillerK -D - San DiegoI plan on starting Brees, LJ, Deuce, Evans, Chad Johnson, Ward, with Jackson hopefully taking over for Deuce next year. Ward will eventually need replaced, but Evans and Johnson should stick around awhile. Who knows, maybe Berrian will fill Ward's spot?My one big trade was P. Manning/Andre Johnson for Brees/Chad Johnson/Deuce. I think I came out alright?I also had drafted Vick as my backup QB, but got scared with the whole dog fighting thing. I ended up trading him outright for Brandon Jackson
They're all four very talented & productive WRs, so it's tough to make a definitive statement on order at this stage in their careers...but that looks pretty good to me. Then again, it could end up the opposite by the end of the season.
Thanks F&L. We just completed round 20. Team Charley so far:QB - Vick, Kitna, LeftwichRB - MJD, DE.Williams, Tr.Henry, Mike Bell, Chris Brown, Mewelde Moore, Chris PerryWR - Evans, Reg.Brown, Matt Jones, Bennett, R.Curry, Paul Williams, J.L.HigginsTE - V.Davis, TroupeD - NE PatriotsK - ?What do you think, F&L? Thanks again for getting your rankings updated before the weekend.Charley, Thanks. I think you did a great job on your draft, but you were using my rankings...so go figure, eh?I like quite a bit about your draft, but possibly the best thing you did was to cover your risks. Vick looks more and more like a risk by the day...fortunately Kitna is as good as it gets in '07 for starter insurance. Leftwich is going to be one of the top bargain bin QBs in dynasty as well redraft.I would have stayed at 2.01 and gone with Ronnie Brown, but that's more of a gut feeling on my part than anything tangible. As it is, you've got two talented young RBs in MJD & D.Williams. Williams may well be slow to take hold of the job, but Travis Henry should be more than startable in the mean time. Bell is solid late round insurance.You're not exactly dynamic at WR, but I actually think you'll be fine there especially in a flex league. Evans and Brown are definitely every week players. Jones is a nice boom or bust pick. I like to have a couple of those every draft. As long as I'm OK on my starters, I'd rather go risky with my reserves. Bennett may or may not see your lineup much, but I like his situation in dynasty leagues much better than redraft.The move to pick up Vernon Davis was smart. He looks like a difference maker in dynasty leagues.The Pats are an easy Top-5 defense in my mind.F&L,Thanks much for your hard work in updating all the rankings (and including rookies). Much appreciated. My draft started Saturday morning. I posted this summary (through 11 rounds) in another thread:So how did this weekend's drafts go for everybody?This 12-team league is RB-heavy with no ppr for RBs, 0.5 ppr for WR/TE, and starters = QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, TE, flex (RB/WR/TE), D and K. I relied heavily on your rankings to determine my selections at each pick. Thanks again.Charley said:
I think you're in very good shape for '07 as well as the future. You've set your team up nicely...looks like a diversified portfolio. I especially like theThanks F&L. We just completed round 20. Team Charley so far:QB - Vick, Kitna, LeftwichRB - MJD, DE.Williams, Tr.Henry, Mike Bell, Chris Brown, Mewelde Moore, Chris PerryWR - Evans, Reg.Brown, Matt Jones, Bennett, R.Curry, Paul Williams, J.L.HigginsTE - V.Davis, TroupeD - NE PatriotsK - ?What do you think, F&L? Thanks again for getting your rankings updated before the weekend.Charley, Thanks. I think you did a great job on your draft, but you were using my rankings...so go figure, eh?I like quite a bit about your draft, but possibly the best thing you did was to cover your risks. Vick looks more and more like a risk by the day...fortunately Kitna is as good as it gets in '07 for starter insurance. Leftwich is going to be one of the top bargain bin QBs in dynasty as well redraft.I would have stayed at 2.01 and gone with Ronnie Brown, but that's more of a gut feeling on my part than anything tangible. As it is, you've got two talented young RBs in MJD & D.Williams. Williams may well be slow to take hold of the job, but Travis Henry should be more than startable in the mean time. Bell is solid late round insurance.You're not exactly dynamic at WR, but I actually think you'll be fine there especially in a flex league. Evans and Brown are definitely every week players. Jones is a nice boom or bust pick. I like to have a couple of those every draft. As long as I'm OK on my starters, I'd rather go risky with my reserves. Bennett may or may not see your lineup much, but I like his situation in dynasty leagues much better than redraft.The move to pick up Vernon Davis was smart. He looks like a difference maker in dynasty leagues.The Pats are an easy Top-5 defense in my mind.F&L,Thanks much for your hard work in updating all the rankings (and including rookies). Much appreciated. My draft started Saturday morning. I posted this summary (through 11 rounds) in another thread:So how did this weekend's drafts go for everybody?This 12-team league is RB-heavy with no ppr for RBs, 0.5 ppr for WR/TE, and starters = QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, TE, flex (RB/WR/TE), D and K. I relied heavily on your rankings to determine my selections at each pick. Thanks again.Charley said:
you have as backups at each position: Leftwich, Chris Brown (if he ends up in Indy), Ronald Curry, Ben Troupe. All very sneaky value picks for their talent level.Yeah, I think I got good value in several picks -- some of them fell far IMO:15.12 - Troupe16.01 - Curry17.12 - Paul Williams19.12 - HigginsI'm putting P.Williams and Higgins on my (informal) taxi/developmental squad. What do you think of their chances short-term and long-term? (We draft 26 now and cut down to 24 before the season starts.)I think you're in very good shape for '07 as well as the future. You've set your team up nicely...looks like a diversified portfolio. I especially like theThanks F&L. We just completed round 20. Team Charley so far:QB - Vick, Kitna, LeftwichRB - MJD, DE.Williams, Tr.Henry, Mike Bell, Chris Brown, Mewelde Moore, Chris PerryWR - Evans, Reg.Brown, Matt Jones, Bennett, R.Curry, Paul Williams, J.L.HigginsTE - V.Davis, TroupeD - NE PatriotsK - ?What do you think, F&L? Thanks again for getting your rankings updated before the weekend.Charley, Thanks. I think you did a great job on your draft, but you were using my rankings...so go figure, eh?I like quite a bit about your draft, but possibly the best thing you did was to cover your risks. Vick looks more and more like a risk by the day...fortunately Kitna is as good as it gets in '07 for starter insurance. Leftwich is going to be one of the top bargain bin QBs in dynasty as well redraft.I would have stayed at 2.01 and gone with Ronnie Brown, but that's more of a gut feeling on my part than anything tangible. As it is, you've got two talented young RBs in MJD & D.Williams. Williams may well be slow to take hold of the job, but Travis Henry should be more than startable in the mean time. Bell is solid late round insurance.You're not exactly dynamic at WR, but I actually think you'll be fine there especially in a flex league. Evans and Brown are definitely every week players. Jones is a nice boom or bust pick. I like to have a couple of those every draft. As long as I'm OK on my starters, I'd rather go risky with my reserves. Bennett may or may not see your lineup much, but I like his situation in dynasty leagues much better than redraft.The move to pick up Vernon Davis was smart. He looks like a difference maker in dynasty leagues.The Pats are an easy Top-5 defense in my mind.F&L,Thanks much for your hard work in updating all the rankings (and including rookies). Much appreciated. My draft started Saturday morning. I posted this summary (through 11 rounds) in another thread:So how did this weekend's drafts go for everybody?Let's hear it.
This 12-team league is RB-heavy with no ppr for RBs, 0.5 ppr for WR/TE, and starters = QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, TE, flex (RB/WR/TE), D and K. I relied heavily on your rankings to determine my selections at each pick. Thanks again.Charley said:
Non-1st round rookie WRs = spin the wheel and see what happens. Who knows with these guys? Williams looks like he has talent and not much in front of him in Tennessee, but I think there are quite a few questions about his commitment. Higgins look like a good deep threat for Russell. As far as late draft WRs go, I like these guys as much as any...but it's just so tough to count on getting a good read on the rookie WR picture until we see them play.
Yep, that's what I was thinking. I basically just take a numbers approach to the future. To develop another starter-quality RB, I hope one of the following comes through in the next year or two: Mike Bell, M.Moore, C.Brown, and C.Perry.Similarly, hopefully a starter-quality WR will develop from among the following: Matt Jones, Bennett, Curry, P.Williams, Higgins.I like your analogy to a "diversified portfolio" -- I hadn't thought about it like that before, but that's how I try to draft and structure a dynasty team -- solid starters, good depth and balance, plenty of proven and unproven upside, combination of "blue chips" plus "solid growth stocks" plus "a few flyers with high potential to position the team for the future" -- sometimes it works out better than others.However, I must admit that this was the 1st time I used your rankings for guidance, and all I can say is AWESOME!
Yeah, I like the numbers approach with sleepers. Good point. They're like pitching prospects. If you throw enough of them against the wall, one or two are going to stick. In most cases quantity is better than quality, since it's tough to get a gauge on quality while they're stuck on the bench. Thanks for the props, and I hope you steer that team straight to the title. Remember: championship banners fly forever.
F&L ~Many thanks for creating (and tweaking) this list. I'm in the middle of my first dynasty draft (w/ a few other FBGs) and the info has proven to be extremely valuable. I'm (of course) putting my spin on the rankings, but your list provided a very nice baseline and draft tool. The other angle I'm using is watching other dynasty drafts around my slots to see what is happening lately.We're only through the 5th & I'm 'on deck' trying to decide where to go next... - 3rd TE off the board (heap/shockey/KW) *not likely w/ several TEs left- #3 WR (clayton/djax/chambers) *seems logical, but i don't see the value play here- #4 RB (fatdale/green/jordan/morency/chester) * gut says L White, but he's got a lot of ?s maybe Ahman.- #1 QB (dnabb/vick/or anyone south of VY on your list) *??? seems like i can do as well in a round or 3Here's what I've managed so far out of the 8th slot. (1st) Addai, Joseph IND RB - 6 (2nd) Jones-Drew, Maurice JAC RB - 4 (5th) Norwood, Jerious ATL RB - 8 (3rd) Johnson, Andre HOU WR - 10 (4th) Walker, Javon DEN WR - 6 No trades thus far b/c most involved 08' picks or the value wasn't there. Young and proven (or with solid potential) is the general theme thus far - passing on guys like Ward/Driver/etc. Norwood was my reach, but I can let him sit for a year if needed. I was hoping JLew would fall to me here in the 6th, but he went right after Norwood.Thanks again for the help!So how did this weekend's drafts go for everybody?
My $.02 FWIW. Watch out for a run on QBs -- I'd take McNabb if he's still available. Vick is falling like a rock and many owners won't touch him now under any circumstances -- you might be able to get him in the 8th or steal him later. IMO it helps tremendously to have a high-quality QB plus a good 2nd QB.You didn't say what your scoring or starter requirements are (or # teams), but you've got a great nucleus of RBs and WRs. I'd fill-in your QB and TE starting positions, add a 2nd QB in the 8th or 9th, and be sure to grab one of F&L's top-5 defenses (wait until CHI is taken and then try to get SD or NE, or BAL atfer that).F&L ~Many thanks for creating (and tweaking) this list. I'm in the middle of my first dynasty draft (w/ a few other FBGs) and the info has proven to be extremely valuable. I'm (of course) putting my spin on the rankings, but your list provided a very nice baseline and draft tool. The other angle I'm using is watching other dynasty drafts around my slots to see what is happening lately.We're only through the 5th & I'm 'on deck' trying to decide where to go next... - 3rd TE off the board (heap/shockey/KW) *not likely w/ several TEs left- #3 WR (clayton/djax/chambers) *seems logical, but i don't see the value play here- #4 RB (fatdale/green/jordan/morency/chester) * gut says L White, but he's got a lot of ?s maybe Ahman.- #1 QB (dnabb/vick/or anyone south of VY on your list) *??? seems like i can do as well in a round or 3Here's what I've managed so far out of the 8th slot. (1st) Addai, Joseph IND RB - 6 (2nd) Jones-Drew, Maurice JAC RB - 4 (5th) Norwood, Jerious ATL RB - 8 (3rd) Johnson, Andre HOU WR - 10 (4th) Walker, Javon DEN WR - 6 No trades thus far b/c most involved 08' picks or the value wasn't there. Young and proven (or with solid potential) is the general theme thus far - passing on guys like Ward/Driver/etc. Norwood was my reach, but I can let him sit for a year if needed. I was hoping JLew would fall to me here in the 6th, but he went right after Norwood.Thanks again for the help!So how did this weekend's drafts go for everybody?Let's hear it.
Thanks, cardiackid. You can't go wrong with a young & talented strategy, but don't forget to round out your bench with a few under-appreciated veterans later in the draft to cover your hide.I'm with Driver. If you're feeling good about McNabb's progress in his rehab, I'd go with him. I like having an advantage at QB rather than just trying to run a guy out there weekly who won't get me killed. I'm a gambler, so my other option here would be LenDale White. (Edit to add: question marks aren't always bad in the long run, and your gut is often right). If I'm already set at RB1 & RB2, at RB3 I'm going with the guy who could put up the most points in a best case scenario. I like White much better than Norwood, but since you already have 3 RBs you're probably better off addressing a position of need here.Driver mentioned those Top 5 defenses, and the one that is really a sleeper is JAX. They were already very solid, and they're getting a lot of injured guys back healthy this year...including their best pass rusher. I think Reggie Nelson can be a poor man's Ed Reed in the playmaker role. And they'll likely still use MJD somewhat in the return game. SD or NE look like easy top defense picks, but if you're forced to go elsewhere JAX is a great bet this year.My $.02 FWIW. Watch out for a run on QBs -- I'd take McNabb if he's still available. Vick is falling like a rock and many owners won't touch him now under any circumstances -- you might be able to get him in the 8th or steal him later. IMO it helps tremendously to have a high-quality QB plus a good 2nd QB.You didn't say what your scoring or starter requirements are (or # teams), but you've got a great nucleus of RBs and WRs. I'd fill-in your QB and TE starting positions, add a 2nd QB in the 8th or 9th, and be sure to grab one of F&L's top-5 defenses (wait until CHI is taken and then try to get SD or NE, or BAL atfer that).F&L ~Many thanks for creating (and tweaking) this list. I'm in the middle of my first dynasty draft (w/ a few other FBGs) and the info has proven to be extremely valuable. I'm (of course) putting my spin on the rankings, but your list provided a very nice baseline and draft tool. The other angle I'm using is watching other dynasty drafts around my slots to see what is happening lately.We're only through the 5th & I'm 'on deck' trying to decide where to go next... - 3rd TE off the board (heap/shockey/KW) *not likely w/ several TEs left- #3 WR (clayton/djax/chambers) *seems logical, but i don't see the value play here- #4 RB (fatdale/green/jordan/morency/chester) * gut says L White, but he's got a lot of ?s maybe Ahman.- #1 QB (dnabb/vick/or anyone south of VY on your list) *??? seems like i can do as well in a round or 3Here's what I've managed so far out of the 8th slot. (1st) Addai, Joseph IND RB - 6 (2nd) Jones-Drew, Maurice JAC RB - 4 (5th) Norwood, Jerious ATL RB - 8 (3rd) Johnson, Andre HOU WR - 10 (4th) Walker, Javon DEN WR - 6 No trades thus far b/c most involved 08' picks or the value wasn't there. Young and proven (or with solid potential) is the general theme thus far - passing on guys like Ward/Driver/etc. Norwood was my reach, but I can let him sit for a year if needed. I was hoping JLew would fall to me here in the 6th, but he went right after Norwood.Thanks again for the help!So how did this weekend's drafts go for everybody?
Thanks to both you and Driver for the opinions. Really appreciated. I didn't have the stomach (pun intended) to go w/ LenDale. May live to regret it if he takes the job FT over Henry, but I think he'll struggle himself into a RBBC - even w/ a vet like Dillon coming in. And b.t.w - it's a HP league with 1pt PPR (everyone) and pretty standard scoring.I decided to take a chance, and it worked out. McNabb was tempting in the 6th, but since we're a 3 WR (no flex option), I decided to go w/ DJax as the new #1 in SF - w/ the 9ers looking like a team on the rise. And, the fantasy gods (along with Dnabb's recovering knee) helped him slide to me in the bottom of the 7th - where I grabbed him. Here's a ? for you - since I'm new to the dynasty world. At what point do you start taking unproven youth (rookie RBs/WRs) over established vets or 2/3 yr. guys. I know it depends on whether you're looking to "win now" vs. building for 2+ years out - but typically in Dynasty drafts, how does it usually fall? Just curious when dynasty'ers start making reaches. This league is 25 roster spots, so there'll be plenty of fliers late, but now - in the 8th round - seems like the make-or-break time. (as everyone's rosters look solid @ this point).Thanks, cardiackid. You can't go wrong with a young & talented strategy, but don't forget to round out your bench with a few under-appreciated veterans later in the draft to cover your hide.I'm with Driver. If you're feeling good about McNabb's progress in his rehab, I'd go with him. I like having an advantage at QB rather than just trying to run a guy out there weekly who won't get me killed. I'm a gambler, so my other option here would be LenDale White. (Edit to add: question marks aren't always bad in the long run, and your gut is often right). If I'm already set at RB1 & RB2, at RB3 I'm going with the guy who could put up the most points in a best case scenario. I like White much better than Norwood, but since you already have 3 RBs you're probably better off addressing a position of need here.Driver mentioned those Top 5 defenses, and the one that is really a sleeper is JAX. They were already very solid, and they're getting a lot of injured guys back healthy this year...including their best pass rusher. I think Reggie Nelson can be a poor man's Ed Reed in the playmaker role. And they'll likely still use MJD somewhat in the return game. SD or NE look like easy top defense picks, but if you're forced to go elsewhere JAX is a great bet this year.My $.02 FWIW. Watch out for a run on QBs -- I'd take McNabb if he's still available. Vick is falling like a rock and many owners won't touch him now under any circumstances -- you might be able to get him in the 8th or steal him later. IMO it helps tremendously to have a high-quality QB plus a good 2nd QB.You didn't say what your scoring or starter requirements are (or # teams), but you've got a great nucleus of RBs and WRs. I'd fill-in your QB and TE starting positions, add a 2nd QB in the 8th or 9th, and be sure to grab one of F&L's top-5 defenses (wait until CHI is taken and then try to get SD or NE, or BAL atfer that).F&L ~Many thanks for creating (and tweaking) this list. I'm in the middle of my first dynasty draft (w/ a few other FBGs) and the info has proven to be extremely valuable. I'm (of course) putting my spin on the rankings, but your list provided a very nice baseline and draft tool. The other angle I'm using is watching other dynasty drafts around my slots to see what is happening lately.We're only through the 5th & I'm 'on deck' trying to decide where to go next... - 3rd TE off the board (heap/shockey/KW) *not likely w/ several TEs left- #3 WR (clayton/djax/chambers) *seems logical, but i don't see the value play here- #4 RB (fatdale/green/jordan/morency/chester) * gut says L White, but he's got a lot of ?s maybe Ahman.- #1 QB (dnabb/vick/or anyone south of VY on your list) *??? seems like i can do as well in a round or 3Here's what I've managed so far out of the 8th slot. (1st) Addai, Joseph IND RB - 6 (2nd) Jones-Drew, Maurice JAC RB - 4 (5th) Norwood, Jerious ATL RB - 8 (3rd) Johnson, Andre HOU WR - 10 (4th) Walker, Javon DEN WR - 6 No trades thus far b/c most involved 08' picks or the value wasn't there. Young and proven (or with solid potential) is the general theme thus far - passing on guys like Ward/Driver/etc. Norwood was my reach, but I can let him sit for a year if needed. I was hoping JLew would fall to me here in the 6th, but he went right after Norwood.Thanks again for the help!So how did this weekend's drafts go for everybody?Let's hear it.
I'm staying far away from D-Jax this year, but as your 3rd WR you could do a lot worse. Even better, you still got McNabb a round later. That's great value there, but don't forget to back him up with reliable QB in a few rounds.Good question on unproven youth vs. established vets. It's been awhile since I've done a start-up draft for dynasty. Both of my leagues have been around for quite awhile, so we're just drafting rookies and roster filler every year. I know this won't help you, but I think it all depends on the owner. You'll see guys who are sweet on an unproven player or two reach for them early. Some guys won't worry about the unproven guys until much later. I think in dynasty you'll see a lot of low-upside vets get bypassed by the rookies. Guys like Isaac Bruce, Muhsin Muhammad, Keyshawn Johnson, etc. will last much longer than they would in re-draft. Overall, I think it's pretty much a case-by-case basis depending on each owner's tendencies and the players they fall for that year. But I think 8th round is early yet to be going for reaches. I would think you'd still be going after the best player on the board.
I'll chime in -- IMO the only rookies definitely worth reaching for are:QB - noneRB - A.Peterson (1st round, 12 teams)WR - Calvin Johnson (3rd round)TE - none2nd-year players worth reaching for:QB - VY (4th round)RB - Bush, Maroney, Addai, MJD (1st round)WR - noneTE - Vernon Davis (5th round)Aside from these players, I'll pass on all other players without a demonstrated track record in the NFL until I've got the core nucleus of my team drafted, including all starters for QB/RB/WR/TE and a back-up at the QB, RB and WR positions. As F&L noted, proven vet's tend to fall, especially if they're viewed as "no longer young." But for dynasty purposes, I'm not too worried about age if QBs are under 30, RBs are under 27, and WRs are under 29 (but watch the accumulated wear and tear on RBs -- total # of carries/touches/etc.). After the core nucleus is established, then the younger the better and the most potential/upside the better in dynasty IMO, balanced by a few more "no longer young" or even one or two aging vet's (who fall a lot and represent great value) to balance out the team and with an eye to "winning this year." Hopefully, you end up with a team that is positioned both for the future and to be very competitive this year.
I'm very excited about Zach Miller. He's already pretty much named the starter and will serve as a safety blanket for McCown and especially Russell, whenever he starts playing. He has a chance to put up some very good numbers.Good job with this thread F&L! :(
Update as of round 21:QB - Brees, Leftwich, GrossmanRB - LJ, Deuce, Brandon Jackson®, Garret Wolfe®, Selvin Young®WR - Evans, Chad Johnson, Ward, Berrian, Ronald Curry, Aundrae Allison®, James Jones®, Ryne Robinson® TE - Heath MillerK - stillYou're very solid at QB, but I would have stayed with Manning & Andre Johnson. It's not like you got taken or anything. I just never believe in trading elite talent for depth. If I have Manning, I'm keeping him and rounding out my team around him. On the other hand, there's nothing that says Brees can't outscore him this year. Just personal preference on my part. Manning is such a sure thing, and there aren't many of them at any position.I think you're OK at RB. LJ is a stud, but that KC situation has me slightly worried...probably more than I should be as dominant as LJ has been the past couple of years. Duece is a "meh" RB to me. I don't see much upside, but he should be a reliable #2 anyway. Jackson is an interesting wild card.Your WRs are dominant. Three #1's and all 3 are top 15 WRs in my opinion. Berrian is a very fine #4. Heath Miller: I can't get a good read on him. He's clearly talented and was extremely impressive as a rookie but took a step back last season. I don't know if Spaeth is a threat to take receptions from him, but I do think at 6'7" and the Steelers' penchant for using their back-up TE's as sneaky redszone receivers, he might swipe a few TDs. Who knows?Chargers D is elite. They could end up #1. I wonder if Sproles will be healthy enough to help the return game this year?I also used your rankings quite a bit in selecting my team:1 PPR, 6 pt per TD, 1 pt/25 passing yds, 1 pt/10 rushing/receiving yardsstart 1 QB, 1 RB, 2 WR, 2 WR/RB/TE, 1 TE, 1 K, 1 DQB - Brees, LeftwichRB - LJ, Deuce, Brandon JacksonWR - Evans, Chad Johnson, Ward, BerrianTE - Heath MillerK -D - San DiegoI plan on starting Brees, LJ, Deuce, Evans, Chad Johnson, Ward, with Jackson hopefully taking over for Deuce next year. Ward will eventually need replaced, but Evans and Johnson should stick around awhile. Who knows, maybe Berrian will fill Ward's spot?My one big trade was P. Manning/Andre Johnson for Brees/Chad Johnson/Deuce. I think I came out alright?I also had drafted Vick as my backup QB, but got scared with the whole dog fighting thing. I ended up trading him outright for Brandon Jackson
D - San DiegoMy tactic in these late rounds has been to take guys that I think showed a lot of talent in college (Wolfe, Allison, Robinson) mixed with situation (Young). Wolfe is getting talk as the possible #2 back, though who knows what will happen. Allison is a talented WR on a team with many questions at the position, though he is likely to be a bust. Robinson was very productive in college and is very talented, but gets overlooked because he is small (5'9" 170ish). I figure if he can learn to play in the NFL anywhere, it will be with fellow 5'9" WR Steve Smith in Carolina. I'm not liking any of the TE prospects left, but I need something to back up Miller... do you think any of the rook TE's (aside from Miller and Olsen, both long gone) have a shot at a future?
I recently drafted Calvin 21st overall, the 4th WR taken. I got to that point and he was the one player I would have regretted passing up. I seriously wonder how defenses will cover him once he learns how to play in the NFL. I am one who doesn't normally drink the rookie kool-aid...but in this case, it is warranted. He is as sure of a thing as I can ever recall out of college. He is literally THAT good. And aside from rankings, as a Lions fan, this is the most excited I have been about a player coming out of college since Barry. Great job with the rankings and opinions too. The hard work is appreciated.Wow! And I thought ILee Evans. I had him in the first tier and then took him out partially because he might be the one player I've been questioned most about ranking too highly in the past.Oz, I'll be happy to move him into tier one for you.
The difference between CJ and Lee Evans or basically any other WR in football right now is that I see CJ as a guy who has the ability to rack up TDs to the tune of around 15/season like a young Randy Moss. There are no other WRs in football right now that I could say the same thing about. I want true difference makers on my team, and I'm willing stick my neck out to get them. I want a guy who has the possibility of giving me an advantage over every other team in the league. I want to put the fear of god into every other owner in my league:
"Like Genghis Kahn on an iron horse, a monster steed with a fiery ######, flat out through the eye of a beer can and up your daughter's leg with no quarter asked and none given; show the squares some class, give em a whiff of those kicks they'll never know." I want to ride to victory on a trail of bones. The innocent will suffer along with the guilty.
When I evaluate WRs, I'm a sucker for WRs with high TD totals as long as they're also heavily involved in the offense (no James Jett's with 12 TDs for me). Get the ball in the endzone and win me that week's match-up.
Thanks, Lions327I completely understand. In that time period of the draft where I'm weighing everything for my next pick, often the deciding factor will be "This is the one player I know I'll regret passing up if somebody grabs him before he gets back to me." Is that relying too much on your gut? Is it letting emotions get in the way? Sure. But we play this game for fun, and I'm all for whatever increases my interest level and excitement. I have to have "my boys" on my team. I do something similar with weekly lineups. If I'm weighing two equal players and one is playing on Monday Night Football, I'll likely choose that one. I know I'll be tuned into the game, so it will raise my interests level. Even better, it gives you that ace in the hole so you know you're not out of it even if you were up against a buzzsaw that week. It's like saving the Reece Cup 'til the last moment...then savoring it.In both cases it shouldn't be the only factor, but I don't see anything wrong with making it a decisive factor once in awhile.I recently drafted Calvin 21st overall, the 4th WR taken. I got to that point and he was the one player I would have regretted passing up. I seriously wonder how defenses will cover him once he learns how to play in the NFL. I am one who doesn't normally drink the rookie kool-aid...but in this case, it is warranted. He is as sure of a thing as I can ever recall out of college. He is literally THAT good. And aside from rankings, as a Lions fan, this is the most excited I have been about a player coming out of college since Barry. Great job with the rankings and opinions too. The hard work is appreciated.Wow! And I thought I
When I evaluate WRs, I'm a sucker for WRs with high TD totals as long as they're also heavily involved in the offense (no James Jett's with 12 TDs for me). Get the ball in the endzone and win me that week's match-up.
Benson is certainly no sure bet to succeed or stay healthy, so Wolfe & Peterson are nice flyers.Allison landed in the right spot for early opportunity.I don't think Ryne Robinson will ever be anything more than a returner.No, I don't see any rookie TE's after Miller & Olsen that look promising. I wouldn't mess with them. You won't likely get anything out of them for a couple years anyway. If anything, I'd take a flyer on a talented 2nd or 3rd year TE that has been late to meet expectations.Update as of round 21:QB - Brees, Leftwich, GrossmanRB - LJ, Deuce, Brandon Jackson®, Garret Wolfe®, Selvin Young®WR - Evans, Chad Johnson, Ward, Berrian, Ronald Curry, Aundrae Allison®, James Jones®, Ryne Robinson® TE - Heath MillerK - still
I wish I could, but it won't all fit. It used to cut off in the middle of the tight ends. Now it cuts off after wide receivers. I certainly understand your predicament, and I would like to have it all in one place myself. So if anybody has an idea that would make it easier, fire away...
I don't know of anything that you can do about this now...but if you do this in the future, before you start, secure the first 5 posts and use them each for a position, this way they will always be in the first 5 posts.
What exactly have you seen (or not seen) that led you to that conclusion? While I'm inclined to agree, he was extremely productive at Miami as a receiver, and he's fearless over the middle, so his size won't keep him from working the underneath routes.He's one of those guys who has consistently outperformed expectations. I think he's got an outside shot to settle in as a #3.
I would certainly defer to your judgment on college players, but I think we may be splitting hairs. I don't see him as a fantasy factor outside of return yardage, and you see him with an outside shot at settling in as a #3. Is there much difference there? How many young WR/returners don't have at least an outside chance to settle in as a #3? I think Ryne Robinson might grow up to be Roscoe Parish. In other words, a fantasy non-factor except in return yardage...and a longshot to sneak into #3 territory.
Quick answer: those are all important factors, but the ones that always stand out the most to me are Talent, Opportunity & Team Situation. These three tend to be the factors that apply to all players whereas the other factors may only apply to a certain segment of the player pool.I'll give some further thought to this and try to come up with a more in-depth answer.
Fear & Loathing said:
nice. You wrote him off with such conviction that I thought maybe you had seen a fatal flaw. Just beware, the kid was extremely productive in college. For this year, he would have to leapfrog Jarrett, Carter, and Colbert, but he could play his way up the depth chart. It's an outside possibility, but he does have the attitude and productivity of a guy the team takes as a return specialist and then realizes once they give him a chance that they got a good receiver as a bonus.Parrish had 81/1285/11 in his career at Miami-FloridaRobinson had 91/1178/9 in 2006 at Miami-Ohio
Fear & Loathing said:
Just the idea of anyone "growing up to be Roscoe Parrish" is funny to me. Parrish is miniature.Fear & Loathing said:
Oh, OK. I wasn't sure if you thought the comparison itself was laughable. They're both miniature, right? About 5'8"? Do you see similarities in their skill sets and roles? I thought Parrish was drafted higher than Robinson?I understand about his production in college. But if I had a nickel for every mid to late round WR with good college numbers that gets pimped on here and elsewhere, I'd be set. You see this every year, and you know you can't write everybody off, but you have to balance that with roster size. Unless your rosters are outrageously big, I just can't see worrying about a guy whose primary role looks to be punt returner. There aren't a whole lot of guys with Robinson's profile who end up ever being fantasy entities.Just the idea of anyone "growing up to be Roscoe Parrish" is funny to me. Parrish is miniature.Fear & Loathing said:
Oh, OK. I wasn't sure if you thought the comparison itself was laughable. They're both miniature, right? About 5'8"? Do you see similarities in their skill sets and roles? I thought Parrish was drafted higher than Robinson?I understand about his production in college. But if I had a nickel for every mid to late round WR with good college numbers that gets pimped on here and elsewhere, I'd be set. You see this every year, and you know you can't write everybody off, but you have to balance that with roster size. Unless your rosters are outrageously big, I just can't see worrying about a guy whose primary role looks to be punt returner. There aren't a whole lot of guys with Robinson's profile who end up ever being fantasy entities.Just the idea of anyone "growing up to be Roscoe Parrish" is funny to me. Parrish is miniature.Fear & Loathing said:
Leapfrogging Colbert is not that difficult.Fear & Loathing said:
Fear, could you name your top 5 defenses in tiers 3 / 4 that you feel have the best chance at climbing up the ranks? Trying to find one with upside but I'm not sure whats going to fall to me.
Upside Defenses:5. Minnesota Vikings: You can't run on their defensive tackles, but I'd like to see this defense rush the passer better and create a few more turnovers. With the drafting of Peterson and leaving Jackson at QB, it's clear that they're building around defense and the running game. An extra turnover here and there, and this is a defense that could help you.4. Atlanta Falcons: Should get a healthy Abraham back to pair with the rookie Anderson, and Houston should be a significant upgrade in the secondary. Injuries were a factor late in the season, so I expect a bounce back factor here as well. 3. St. Louis Rams: Added some much needed depth on defense including potential sackers Adam Carriker and James Hall. Even better, there's hope for a season out of the juvenation machine for Dante Hall in the return game on turf. I think this defense, while certainly far from top-notch, will be a much improved unit.2. Dallas Cowboys: Started the season strong last year, but they weren't really stopping anybody as the season went along. Rookie Spencer is a chic pick to take Defensive ROY, and DeMarcus Ware could make the leap this year. 1. Miami Dolphins: Added a pass-rusher in Joey Porter to pair with Jason Taylor. Also, added a potential difference maker in the return game with Ted Ginn Jr.Re: San Fran & Arizona. I just don't know if the 49ers are going to be able to rush the passer, and that's a big factor in creating turnovers. I like Wilson's playmaking ability in Arizona, and Breaston could be an interesting returner, but I just can't believe in their defensive until I see it more consistently. I think they could be strong in the middle, but outside of Wilson I wonder about creating turnovers.
Thanks dsrm.Hmmm...that's a tough one. I think I'm going to need some more defined parameters on scoring before I could attempt this.I have one league where TE's are not required and are interchangeable in the lineup with WR's, but the Tight Ends get extra points as incentive to use them. Even in that scenario, I've always ranked them as a separate position for that league when doing rankings. Are we talking TE's getting the same scoring credit as WR's, or do the Tight Ends get extra credit?
I agree with much of this. I think it might be a stretch to compare them to the Chargers (they're lacking a Merriman type dominator and the studs along the D-Line, both of which are extremely important), but they are definitely building with young talent.Outside of the very top defenses, I don't look much beyond the coming season. There have been plenty of defenses building with young talent that never take the step to elite fantasy units. The 49ers have a shot to be an asset as a defense, but you could make that case for most of the teams. To me, they're still in crapshoot phase.
