Dynasty Rankings (7 Viewers)

[squistion]

I'm not asking you to understand the logic.

You should if you expect people to take seriously what you have to say. This Kitna above Cutler ranking makes no sense to me either, in any Dynasty league.

 

[stevegamer]

I'm not asking you to understand the logic.

You should if you expect people to take seriously what you have to say. This Kitna above Cutler ranking makes no sense to me either, in any Dynasty league.

You need to read the first post - F&L has these for a particular league - which factors in playoffs. Favre & Kitna look much more likely than Cutler to see playoff action. The Broncos are 3 last second FG's from winless - I don't think they make the playoffs this year, and that matters to these rankings.I can see Cutler/Kitna going either way with a 2-3 year window. Cutler wins long-term, but the long-term is very uncertain. Unless the pack wins the Super Bowl, I think Favre is back next year - he's ahving fun and they are winning. I wonder when Aaron Rodgers dynasty value will show up again - remember when he fell from grace at the NFL draft, and suddenly, he's nowhere to bee seen. he could reach UFA status before NFL starter status.

 

[valhallan]

Uhm, guys, F&L has Kitna rated 51 and Cutler rated 50. Talk about splitting hairs..

 

[Fear & Loathing]

I'm not asking you to understand the logic.

You should if you expect people to take seriously what you have to say. This Kitna above Cutler ranking makes no sense to me either, in any Dynasty league.

I've explained my logic here and everywhere else throughout this thread. What you do with that logic, whether you take it in and roll it around in your head or dismiss it without serious thought, is up to you. If I worried myself silly over not being able to convince "the board" of the merits of every single ranking on here (especially one where the two players under consideration are essentially equally ranked), then I would have stopped doing this months ago. Furthermore, considering the rankings on page one haven't been updated since the Monday night game that Cutler played in, I'd appreciate the chance to do some rearranging and updating before I have to quibble over selected rankings. Many of the regulars here know that I started this thread by rejecting the notion that the 3-year window or the 5-year window is the recipe for fantasy success. The key to actually winning dynasty leagues is to realize that the current season is always three times as important as any future season because A] championship banners fly forever and B] the future is too uncertain for even the best of us to accurately predict. The goal should always be to balance the present and the future without detriment to either one. That doesn't mean the future shouldn't be considered, but it does mean that your priorities may be askew if you're worried more about your future starting QB than your present starting QB.

If you actually want to contribute to thread or the debate, please join in with something substantial as opposed to a simple drive-by jab.

 

[Suzy]

I'm not asking you to understand the logic.

You should if you expect people to take seriously what you have to say. This Kitna above Cutler ranking makes no sense to me either, in any Dynasty league.

I've explained my logic here and everywhere else throughout this thread. What you do with that logic, whether you take it in and roll it around in your head or dismiss it without serious thought, is up to you. If I worried myself silly over not being able to convince "the board" of the merits of every single ranking on here (especially one where the two players under consideration are essentially equally ranked), then I would have stopped doing this months ago. Furthermore, considering the rankings on page one haven't been updated since the Monday night game that Cutler played in, I'd appreciate the chance to do some rearranging and updating before I have to quibble over selected rankings. Many of the regulars here know that I started this thread by rejecting the notion that the 3-year window or the 5-year window is the recipe for fantasy success. The key to actually winning dynasty leagues is to realize that the current season is always three times as important as any future season because A] championship banners fly forever and B] the future is too uncertain for even the best of us to accurately predict. That doesn't mean the future shouldn't be considered, but it does mean that your priorities may be askew if you're worried more about your future starting QB than your present starting QB.

If you actually want to contribute to thread or the debate, please join in with something substantial as opposed to a simple drive-by jab.

I dont understand your logic, sorry. You say that even though Kitna is 11 years older than Cutler he is more valuable in dynasty leagues because you want to win now. In most leagues Cutler is out scoring Kitna already this year. In 2 years Kitna will probably be totally worthless in dynasty leagues. Kitna is 35 and Cutler is 24. No one with any fantasy football intelligence would rate Kitna higher than Cutler in a dynasty league. Its not even close, just ask Dodds.

 

[benm3218]

Cutler does not have the weopons that Kitna has right now. You have to compare the schedules and other factors too.

You don't just move Cutler up since Kitna had a dry spell that is still not bad.

Please go away and ignore this thread instead of posting ignorant rants. Some of us like it and enjoy the intelligent discussion, not the blind bile.

 

[FBGPoker]

Cutler does not have the weopons that Kitna has right now. You have to compare the schedules and other factors too.You don't just move Cutler up since Kitna had a dry spell that is still not bad. Please go away and ignore this thread instead of posting ignorant rants. Some of us like it and enjoy the intelligent discussion, not the blind bile.

What have i posted that was ignorant or unintelligent?I posted my reasons why it was so ridiculous to have Kitna over Cutler, ignore them at your own peril.Overall i think F&L has the BEST dynasty rankings on the internet. I LOVE this thread, don't mistake me disagreeing with him as spewing "blind bile".If i made super deep dynasty rankings i would overlook a ton of things and many of my rankings wouldn't make sense. It's impossible to thoroughly think about every scenerio and ranking. All i'm doing is pointing out one illogical ranking.Once again, F&L is the man when it comes to dynasty, in no way am i trying to bash him.

 

[benm3218]

I'm not asking you to understand the logic.

You should if you expect people to take seriously what you have to say. This Kitna above Cutler ranking makes no sense to me either, in any Dynasty league.

I've explained my logic here and everywhere else throughout this thread. What you do with that logic, whether you take it in and roll it around in your head or dismiss it without serious thought, is up to you. If I worried myself silly over not being able to convince "the board" of the merits of every single ranking on here (especially one where the two players under consideration are essentially equally ranked), then I would have stopped doing this months ago. Furthermore, considering the rankings on page one haven't been updated since the Monday night game that Cutler played in, I'd appreciate the chance to do some rearranging and updating before I have to quibble over selected rankings. Many of the regulars here know that I started this thread by rejecting the notion that the 3-year window or the 5-year window is the recipe for fantasy success. The key to actually winning dynasty leagues is to realize that the current season is always three times as important as any future season because A] championship banners fly forever and B] the future is too uncertain for even the best of us to accurately predict. That doesn't mean the future shouldn't be considered, but it does mean that your priorities may be askew if you're worried more about your future starting QB than your present starting QB.

If you actually want to contribute to thread or the debate, please join in with something substantial as opposed to a simple drive-by jab.

I dont understand your logic, sorry. You say that even though Kitna is 11 years older than Cutler he is more valuable in dynasty leagues because you want to win now. In most leagues Cutler is out scoring Kitna already this year. In 2 years Kitna will probably be totally worthless in dynasty leagues. Kitna is 35 and Cutler is 24. No one with any fantasy football intelligence would rate Kitna higher than Cutler in a dynasty league. Its not even close, just ask Dodds.

Well when you said no one with any intelligence yada yada yada... I assumed you were blasting his rankings and intelligence. I guess I think that these are his rankings not ours or yours... We should all do our own and post them if we have such strong feelings about certain players.

But, since these are his rankings, use what you agree with and move on, instead of getting into argumentative posts...

But, then again F&L usually posts responses and I am sure he is used to it, so who am I to know really.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

I dont understand your logic, sorry. You say that even though Kitna is 11 years older than Cutler he is more valuable in dynasty leagues because you want to win now. In most leagues Cutler is out scoring Kitna already this year. In 2 years Kitna will probably be totally worthless in dynasty leagues. Kitna is 35 and Cutler is 24. No one with any fantasy football intelligence would rate Kitna higher than Cutler in a dynasty league. Its not even close, just ask Dodds.

Is the season over? So Kitna is coming off a couple of down weeks. Where were they a few weeks ago? Where will they be a few weeks from now? Can I have time to consider Cutler's last game? When I last worked on these rankings, I considered Kitna a fantasy starter the rest of the year. I still do. I did not yet consider Jay Cutler a fantasy starter. Maybe his last couple of weeks have changed that, maybe not. I'll check it out....In the meantime, settle down Beavis.What does Dodds have to do with it?

 

[Fear & Loathing]

Cutler does not have the weopons that Kitna has right now. You have to compare the schedules and other factors too.You don't just move Cutler up since Kitna had a dry spell that is still not bad. Please go away and ignore this thread instead of posting ignorant rants. Some of us like it and enjoy the intelligent discussion, not the blind bile.

What have i posted that was ignorant or unintelligent?I posted my reasons why it was so ridiculous to have Kitna over Cutler, ignore them at your own peril.Overall i think F&L has the BEST dynasty rankings on the internet. I LOVE this thread, don't mistake me disagreeing with him as spewing "blind bile".If i made super deep dynasty rankings i would overlook a ton of things and many of my rankings wouldn't make sense. It's impossible to thoroughly think about every scenerio and ranking. All i'm doing is pointing out one illogical ranking.Once again, F&L is the man when it comes to dynasty, in no way am i trying to bash him.

FBGPoker,I think benm3218 was referring to suzy rather than you. I appreciate the compliments you sent my way and the understanding that I will overlook a few things here and there with so much upkeep involved. I'm glad you enjoy the thread. Since I'm getting a couple of fly-by-night newcomers with issues today, please allow a small venting of frustration:I don't mind the debate. I don't mind being called out on rankings or having to defend them. I do take offense when somebody just slips in for a drive-by slam like "anybody with intelligence yadda yadda yadda...". It's usually pretty clear who has been reading along and participating versus somebody who has just stopped by to see if "his guys" are given their proper due.I put a lot of time, thought, effort, and misplaced priorities into these rankings because I enjoy the give and take, and I think it's become a unique corner of the internet for talk about dynasty fantasy football leagues. I don't get paid for it. All I ask is that you come at me with common courtesy and semi-intelligent conversation....and some consideration that I can't always update every single ranking at every single position in real time. I'm going to bed now. I'll try to tweak the rankings tomorrow to fill in a few missed cracks....

 

[Finless]

I don't see the Patriots dynasty listed anywhere in here

 

[Fear & Loathing]

I don't see the Patriots dynasty listed anywhere in here

d'ohCheck post #883 for what was probably a little too much Patriots love.

 

[Craig_MiamiFL]

Are my eyes deceiving me or is some guy really getting ripped for preferring Addai over Gore?

I would take Addai hands down over Gore. I would throw in a late 1st/early 2nd round pick with Gore. Have fun with that Niners offense in the future.

I'd have no problem whatsoever taking Addai #3 overall behind LT2 and All Day if we had a dynasty draft today. I wouldn't consider Gore until #6 (SJax,Parker) at best.

 

[jdoggydogg]

Are my eyes deceiving me or is some guy really getting ripped for preferring Addai over Gore?I would take Addai hands down over Gore. I would throw in a late 1st/early 2nd round pick with Gore. Have fun with that Niners offense in the future.I'd have no problem whatsoever taking Addai #3 overall behind LT2 and All Day if we had a dynasty draft today. I wouldn't consider Gore until #6 (SJax,Parker) at best.

I don't have a problem with picking Addai over Gore - dynasty or redraft. I am questioning the notion that Addai is as talented as Gore is. It's been mentioned in this thread that Gore was talented pre-injury. Gore this very day is more explosive than Addai. Period. Take Addai in your fantasy drafts over Gore. Enjoy. But don't trick yourself into thinking that Addai is just as talented as Gore.

 

[Craig_MiamiFL]

Are my eyes deceiving me or is some guy really getting ripped for preferring Addai over Gore?I would take Addai hands down over Gore. I would throw in a late 1st/early 2nd round pick with Gore. Have fun with that Niners offense in the future.I'd have no problem whatsoever taking Addai #3 overall behind LT2 and All Day if we had a dynasty draft today. I wouldn't consider Gore until #6 (SJax,Parker) at best.

I don't have a problem with picking Addai over Gore - dynasty or redraft. I am questioning the notion that Addai is as talented as Gore is. It's been mentioned in this thread that Gore was talented pre-injury. Gore this very day is more explosive than Addai. Period. Take Addai in your fantasy drafts over Gore. Enjoy. But don't trick yourself into thinking that Addai is just as talented as Gore.

Difference in situation >>>>>>>>>>>> Difference in talent in this case. That's all that it boils down to for me. I'll let others debate the whole talent issue. I'll continue taking the fantasy point difference

 

[the_sig]

Are my eyes deceiving me or is some guy really getting ripped for preferring Addai over Gore?

I would take Addai hands down over Gore. I would throw in a late 1st/early 2nd round pick with Gore. Have fun with that Niners offense in the future.

I'd have no problem whatsoever taking Addai #3 overall behind LT2 and All Day if we had a dynasty draft today. I wouldn't consider Gore until #6 (SJax,Parker) at best.

I don't have a problem with picking Addai over Gore - dynasty or redraft. I am questioning the notion that Addai is as talented as Gore is. It's been mentioned in this thread that Gore was talented pre-injury. Gore this very day is more explosive than Addai. Period. Take Addai in your fantasy drafts over Gore. Enjoy. But don't trick yourself into thinking that Addai is just as talented as Gore.

Difference in situation >>>>>>>>>>>> Difference in talent in this case. That's all that it boils down to for me. I'll let others debate the whole talent issue. I'll continue taking the fantasy point difference

Over what period are you referring to? I know you can't be referring to last year? Addai = 188.6 points (FBG scoring) vs. Gore = 272 (FBG scoring). This year, Gore & Addai have only played during the same weeks (allowing for this point difference comparison you speak of) 6 times and Addai was ahead 4 of those, Gore 2 of those. Since this thread has a dynasty focus hopefully you aren't basing your evaluation solely on 4 games Addai has outperformed Gore in 2007.

 

[sark28]

I'll do a quick drive-by to say that I read a ton of fantasy analysis, discussions, etc. but this thread is by FAR my favorite fantasy football read on the net. Thanks for all the hard effort that you put into this F&L - it is definitely much appreciated.

 

[benm3218]

Are my eyes deceiving me or is some guy really getting ripped for preferring Addai over Gore?

I would take Addai hands down over Gore. I would throw in a late 1st/early 2nd round pick with Gore. Have fun with that Niners offense in the future.

I'd have no problem whatsoever taking Addai #3 overall behind LT2 and All Day if we had a dynasty draft today. I wouldn't consider Gore until #6 (SJax,Parker) at best.

I don't have a problem with picking Addai over Gore - dynasty or redraft. I am questioning the notion that Addai is as talented as Gore is. It's been mentioned in this thread that Gore was talented pre-injury. Gore this very day is more explosive than Addai. Period. Take Addai in your fantasy drafts over Gore. Enjoy. But don't trick yourself into thinking that Addai is just as talented as Gore.

Difference in situation >>>>>>>>>>>> Difference in talent in this case. That's all that it boils down to for me. I'll let others debate the whole talent issue. I'll continue taking the fantasy point difference

Over what period are you referring to? I know you can't be referring to last year? Addai = 188.6 points (FBG scoring) vs. Gore = 272 (FBG scoring). This year, Gore & Addai have only played during the same weeks (allowing for this point difference comparison you speak of) 6 times and Addai was ahead 4 of those, Gore 2 of those. Since this thread has a dynasty focus hopefully you aren't basing your evaluation solely on 4 games Addai has outperformed Gore in 2007.

wow. A logic based "got'em". Nice post Sig.

 

[squistion]

Uhm, guys, F&L has Kitna rated 51 and Cutler rated 50. Talk about splitting hairs..

How many Kitna owners would take Cutler straight up in a trade? I would guess at least 75% but I could be wrong.Conversly, how many Cutler owners would take Kitna in a straight up trade? I own Cutler in a Dynasty and would be insulted if the Kitna owner offered me him with nothing else. These are not equivalent players in Dynasty leagues IMO.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

Are my eyes deceiving me or is some guy really getting ripped for preferring Addai over Gore?I would take Addai hands down over Gore. I would throw in a late 1st/early 2nd round pick with Gore. Have fun with that Niners offense in the future.I'd have no problem whatsoever taking Addai #3 overall behind LT2 and All Day if we had a dynasty draft today. I wouldn't consider Gore until #6 (SJax,Parker) at best.

I don't have a problem with picking Addai over Gore - dynasty or redraft. I am questioning the notion that Addai is as talented as Gore is. It's been mentioned in this thread that Gore was talented pre-injury. Gore this very day is more explosive than Addai. Period. Take Addai in your fantasy drafts over Gore. Enjoy. But don't trick yourself into thinking that Addai is just as talented as Gore.

Difference in situation >>>>>>>>>>>> Difference in talent in this case. That's all that it boils down to for me. I'll let others debate the whole talent issue. I'll continue taking the fantasy point difference

This just occurred to me: how many of the guys who prefer Addai over Gore would also take Addai over Steven Jackson? It never really popped into my mind that Addai would be favored over Jackson, but S-Jax's situation and talent level are similar to Gore's.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

I'll do a quick drive-by to say that I read a ton of fantasy analysis, discussions, etc. but this thread is by FAR my favorite fantasy football read on the net. Thanks for all the hard effort that you put into this F&L - it is definitely much appreciated.

Thank you, sark. I really appreciate it.

 

[Ariakis]

Two weeks ago you may get a taker on offering Kitna for Cutler to a team trying to win now but with the Lions not pass-happy of late and Cutler throwing more they are getting a bit closer. Things move fast and change in a hurry in FFL. While I am not sure Cutler is a QB1 I am no longer sure that Kitna is either. I'd rather find a QBBC to platoon with Cutler if I had this situation than even consider giving up future value. I am as much a win now guy as anyone you will meet. I think Cutler is ranked about right but Kitna needs to move down perhaps just in front of Griese if not further. I would definately want Anderson over either but not over Cutler.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

Football Outsiders' Audibles at the Line for Week 8:

TED GINN:

Bill Barnwell: If you can teach Ginn how to sell double moves and he’s alongside an offensive line that actually gives the quarterback enough time for the route to develop, Ginn can be a dynamite downfield guy — with a peak of something like Alvin Harper in Dallas. It’s just a) lots of guys can do that without being a top-ten pick and b) that’s not the easiest scenario to put together.

VINCE YOUNG:

Doug Farrar: Vince Young’s passing numbers were pretty bad, but in his defense, he had two sure touchdowns dropped early in the fourth quarter.

BROWNS' OFFENSIVE LINE:

Doug Farrar: During the time that I’ve observed them in preparation for next week’s matchup with the Seahawks, the Browns have moved up from “interestingly frisky” to “officially dangerous.” They have a great aerial game, and perhaps the NFL’s most underrated offensive line. Actually, they’re a great argument for putting your money in the line if you want to improve your offense. They drafted Joe Thomas and stole Eric Steinbach away from the Bengals, and they’re 10th in Adjusted Line Yards and 15th in Adjusted Sack Rate through Week 7. Last season, they were 31st and 26th, respectively, in those categories. Meanwhile, teams like the Seahawks, 49ers and Rams are looking around for answers on offense, and their line deficiencies have a great deal to do with that.

Vince Verhei: This does not change the fact that Cleveland is a team that must be taken seriously, and would likely contend for a division title if they played in the NFC. I continue to be blown away by Joe Thomas. Every time I watch Cleveland on offense, I see him dominating somebody.

BRAYLON EDWARDS:

Ned Macey: Braylon Edwards is developing into a beast. He made an extraordinary catch in the first half down the left sideline, just tiptoeing in on the outside. But, in a sight familiar to every Michigan fan, he also dropped what would have been a game-clinching third down pass in the final two minutes. Still, he finally has a borderline competent quarterback, and he’s looking at sort of a Lee Evans, 2006-type season. Time will tell if Anderson is a better player than Losman. Winslow is certainly better than anything else the Bills have.

DETROIT LIONS:

Michael David Smith: I’m not prepared to say the Lions are a good team, but I will say that for the first time in the Matt Millen era, the talent on the roster roughly matches what the coaches are trying to do with the talent. In the past, it was like Millen was building one team and Mariucci and Mornhinweg were coaching a totally different team. This year you can actually see that the offensive players fit with what Martz wants to do and the defensive players fit with what Marinelli wants to do.

BEATING THE COLTS:

Aaron Schatz: The Panthers have been running a lot on first and second down, right into a wall of Colts defenders. Remember 2005? The Chargers (and then the Steelers in the playoffs) beat the Colts by PASSING early in the game, particularly on first down, when the Colts were bringing Sanders up expecting run. Then when the Colts moved Sanders back, the Chargers and Steelers amped up the run. It shocked people because we all thought of the Steelers as a run-first team, and they came out firing downfield to start that playoff game. It seems to me this is the correct strategy against the 2007 Colts as well, especially since their defense is much more like that of the 2005 Colts than it is like that of the 2006 Colts.

HOW WAS DAVID CARR THE #1 OVERALL PICK IN THE 2002 DRAFT?

Aaron Schatz: Speaking of quarterbacks … I didn’t pay much attention to the draft before I started doing this for a living. Why was David Carr considered the number one prospect in the 2002 draft? What did people say about him at the time?

The top of the 2002 draft may be the worst of all time. There are some great players in the mid-first round, but the top of the draft goes:

David Carr

Julius Peppers (the exception)

Joey Harrington

Mike Williams (offensive tackle bust version)

Quentin Jammer

Ryan Sims

Jammer is totally overrated, but he’s actually the second best player on that list.

Doug Farrar: How can you say such negative things about a man who averaged 3.8 yards per attempt in this game?

Bill Barnwell: Here’s what Dr. Z had to say at the time — “Oh my, what a mob. Twelve rookies, including the franchise QB. Should we worry about that fluky three-quarter arm delivery? Well, that’s what they’re paying Chris Palmer for.”

Vince Verhei: An excerpt from one of Carr’s scouting reports: “Buys time for his wideouts and throws the ball away instead of taking a sack if nothing is available.” That is hysterical, and also a good example of why the draft is so overrated.

I ask this question whenever somebody mentions Carr, or Kyle Boller, or Joey Harrington: If Cal coach Jeff Tedford is so good at taking mediocre quarterbacks and making them look great in college, why has no NFL team hired him to make their mediocre quarterbacks look great?

Mike Tanier: In fairness to Carr, all of the tough guy stuff was true, and he looked a lot more legit as a prospect in the first half of the 2004 season. We are talking about a guy who was sacked 10,000 times. My take on him, watching him last year, was that he was a guy who couldn’t afford to lose 10 percent of his athleticism because it would make him too slow and less zip-armed. After the beating, he lost about 20 percent of his athleticism, and a little bit of that grittiness seemed beaten out of him because he would get rid of the ball too soon. The Texans were left with a smart, hard-working pocket guy with a medium arm and a bunch of bad habits. A long way from a prospect.

BEN ROETHLISBERGER:

Vince Verhei: We’ve talked about EVIL ROETHLISBERGER, but there’s an awful lot of GOOD ROETHLISBERGER too. He makes his offensive line look a lot better than they really are. He breaks a lot of sacks by just being too big to go down, and he’s also got surprising mobility and the ability to throw accurately on the run. If the Steelers decided to trade him, I suspect they’d get at least 25 offers.

TRENT EDWARDS / J.P. LOSMAN:

Sean McCormick: Edwards hasn’t even been looking in the right direction. It’s as if Roscoe Parrish basically doesn’t exist for the offense, and Edwards just locks in on wherever Lee Evans is. (Of course, on the one throw he did make at Parrish, Revis picked it, so there’s that.)

Vince Verhei: Last week, everyone seemed impressed with how Trent Edwards played. He played more like a rookie today. The interception he threw could be found in the dictionary under “rookie mistake.” He threw the ball a) in midair, b) while being hit, c) into double coverage. I saw a number of passes that were basically extended handoffs, designed for guys to catch the ball short and run around, and they weren’t able to because they were adjusting to catch passes thrown behind their heads or out in front of them.

Sean McCormick: It’s amazing how different quarterbacks will read the field differently. Faced with a third-and-long, Losman responded to the heavy blitz up the middle by hanging tough and then launching a 50-yard bomb into double coverage in the hope of somehow hitting Lee Evans. Incomplete. Punt.

And then Losman tried it again, another 50-plus-yard chuck into double coverage, only this time Lee Evans wrestled the ball away from Revis at its highest point, the safety took a bad angle, and Evans scored an 85-yard touchdown to clinch the game. It’s amazing how different quarterbacks will read the field differently.

JASON CAMPBELL:

Ned Macey: And, while the Pats have a great defense, I’ve now watched Jason Campbell two consecutive weeks. I’m not impressed. I’m starting to agree with the poster who pointed out that Campbell has had one good game, against Detroit. Campbell is a little older. He’s already 25, turning 26 by the end of the season. He has fumbled a Warner-esque eight times in eight games. I’m still a believer in the Lewin Career Forecast, but that doesn’t mean it has never missed on a player. Campbell looks like a Delhomme upside to me.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

Profootballtalk.com on Derek Anderson and the Browns' future at QB:

BROWNS WILL BE BACKED INTO A CORNER ON ANDERSON

As the Cleveland Browns prepare to try to strengthen their chances for an unexpected playoff appearance, there's a looming dilemma at the quarterback position.

Many in the media presume that the Browns will have to decide whether the starting quarterback in 2008 will be Derek Anderson or Brady Quinn. But the ultimate choice will have longer-term repercussions than that, in our view.

Anderson will be a restricted free agent after the season. Regardless of whether the Browns decide to go with Anderson or Quinn in 2008, the Browns undoubtedly will slap the highest possible RFA tender on Anderson, ensuring that they will be entitled to a first-round pick and a third-round pick as compensation, if he leaves. (Even if they want to go with Quinn, they can trade Anderson for less than a first-rounder and a third-rounder, like the Falcons did with Matt Schaub.)

But who wouldn't give up a first-round pick and a third-round pick for a semi-proven commodity at the quarterback position? Why spend the No. 1 overall pick (and $32 million or more in guaranteed money) on a potential Tim Couch or Ryan Leaf when, for a first-round pick and a third-round pick, you can have a guy who has actually worn an NFL helmet for reasons other than trick-or-treating? (And performed well while doing so.)

Even if a potential suitor for Anderson decides not to slip a "poison pill" in the offer sheet to Anderson that would make it impossible for Cleveland to match the deal, the only way that the Browns would be able to keep Anderson around for 2008 would be to make the kind of financial investment that will make it impossible for them to put him on the bench in 2009. Or 2010.

So who are the candidates to make a run at Anderson? Obvious possibilities are the Jaguars, Chiefs, Vikings, Bears, Bucs, and Panthers. (Even if the 49ers were inclined to give up on Alex Smith after three seasons, they can't extend an offer for Anderson because their first-round pick was traded to New England. And having the Colts' first-rounder via the Tony Ugoh trade doesn't count -- the 49ers have to have their own pick.)

And what about the Dolphins? There's talk that owner Wayne Huizenga might want to make a big splash at quarterback, if early reviews on rookie John Beck aren't promising. Making a run at Anderson would have two significant benefits. First, G.M. Randy Mueller (or whoever has the job at the time) wouldn't have to play pin the tail on the donkey with Matt Ryan and Brian Brohm and Andre Woodson. Second, the Fins would foist onto the Browns the requirement to take a shot in the dark on a blue-chip prospect at a time when the chips won't likely be as blue as they were in 2007 -- and then pay the guy more than $30 million guaranteed.

The Ravens need a long-term answer at the position. But would they be willing to give up a first-round pick and a third-round pick for the guy whom they cut -- and who then developed into a star with their arch-rivals in Cleveland? Still, if Anderson were to become a star in Baltimore and if Brady ends up being a bust, it would be viewed as a brilliant move.

Bottom line? The way things are shaping up right now, someone will give up a one and three for Anderson. And the only way the Browns will be able to keep him is if they're willing to have two high-priced quarterbacks -- and if they're able to keep one of them happy while he is languishing on the bench.

Also, the Dolphins owner wants John Beck to play:

HUIZENGA WANTS TO SEE WHAT BECK CAN DO

An industry source tells us in response to our speculation item from earlier today that the Dolphins will stick with Cleo Lemon at quarterback until the team gets a win that, in reality, owner Wayne Huizenga wants the coaching staff to play quarterback John Beck.

Per the source, Huizenga wants to find out if Beck has the potential to become a long-term starter, since the team will be in position to select a blue-chip quarterback high in the first round of the draft.

And that reality further highlights how ridiculous the current financial system for paying first-round rookies has become. Assuming that the Dolphins and the Rams finish with the two worst records in the league, their reward will be paying guaranteed money of $30 million or more to a guy who has never taken a snap in the NFL.

But even if the Fins are in line to draft a blue-chip quarterback, we think that some patience needs to be exercised. This franchise has been wasting draft picks for years (primarily by trading them away) in an effort to find the next Dan Marino. Whether or not Beck makes a big splash in limited duty on a bad team in 2007 shouldn't prompt the powers-that-be to burn up a top-two pick on another rookie quarterback.

Brandon Jackson still has a role in the Packers offense:

Green Bay - Rookie running back Brandon Jackson won't just be an emergency fill-in this week for the Green Bay Packers.

Jackson, the team's second-round pick, has been inactive the past four weeks, the first two because of a shin injury and the latter two because he was surpassed on the depth chart. But with fellow rookie and recent starter DeShawn Wynn gone for the season with neck and shoulder injuries, Jackson will move up a notch.

There are two backup positions behind Ryan Grant, who was named the starter this week after rushing for 104 yards against the Denver Broncos on Monday night. Veteran Vernand Morency will take one of them and Jackson the other.

According to coach Mike McCarthy, Jackson will play a fairly prominent role, serving as the situational runner, which means a lot of snaps as the third-down back. Morency will be Grant's backup on running downs and play some third downs depending on how much work Jackson can handle.

Jackson, who started all through training camp and the first three games of the season, is best-suited for third-down work because he's an excellent receiver with the moves to make something happen in the open field. In his three starts, he caught 11 passes and had a reception of at least 15 yards in each game.

The questionable part of his game is blocking, although McCarthy expressed a lot of confidence in him being able to pick up blitzers. During training camp, Jackson was regularly run over in pass-blocking drills and needed a lot of work on his technique.

"This will be his second full week of practice where he's full go," McCarthy said. "I expect him when his opportunity comes to go in there and be productive. He's very sharp. He's done a great job with blitz pick-ups and things like that, the tougher things. He's a tough kid."

Jackson has a lot to prove after falling so far on the depth chart. During his three games as a starter, he rushed for just 97 yards on 38 carries with one touchdown. Despite the running game's troubles, he is the only one of the four halfbacks to average less than 4.0 yards per carry this season.

When Wynn was starting, Morency and Grant shared the third-down back job. Morency is faster than Jackson but not as good of a receiver and Grant is equal in receiving ability but doesn't have the shiftiness of Jackson. Morency has 17 catches, but he is averaging just 6.8 yards per reception.

My take:- Nobody is giving up a 1st and a 3rd for Derek Anderson.

- John Beck is going to play soon.

- I'm buying low on Brandon Jackson. I'm not sold on him, and I was down on him earlier in the season....but he's more talented than Ryan Grant, Morency is no kind of roadblock, and Wynn is out for the year.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

I'd be curious why you say Jackson is more talented? I'd like to agree (as an owner and someone who predicted he'd be good/very good) before the season started, but he hasn't looked the part at all to date.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

I'd be curious why you say Jackson is more talented? I'd like to agree (as an owner and someone who predicted he'd be good/very good) before the season started, but he hasn't looked the part at all to date.

I haven't seen enough of both guys this year for a definitive analysis, but I saw Grant play at Notre Dame quite a bit and never saw him as a guy with a bright NFL future at tailback. When you consider that Jackson was a 2nd round investment this year, while Grant was an undrafted free agent and basically given away by the Giants, then logic would say Jackson is more talented.However, I did come across this rotoworld nugget from April of last year while researching Ryan Grant:

Notre Dame running back Ryan Grant was among the undrafted free agents signed by the Giants.

Respected scouting services such as Ourlads had Grant in the top eight runnng backs in the country, in front of day one picks like Ryan Moats and Frank Gore. The Giants are thin at running back, so he'll have an outside chance to make the team.

So maybe Grant does have a good deal more talent than your typical undrafted free agent. We'll see how that GB backfield situation plays out the rest of the way, but I don't expect one good showing against the Broncos woeful rushing defense to cement the situation...In the interest of full disclosure, every time I saw Brandon Jackson in the pre-season or early season, I was unimpressed. But McCarthy hasn't given up on him, and it's clear Morency is no longer a threat to take over the bulk of the rushing. With Wynn out of the way, and Herron on the IR, that leaves only Ryan Grant for the next 9 games. I like Jackson's odds to get a shot at reclaiming the position along the way.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

See, but every report out says that Henry has probably a *maximum* of three weeks left. I'm honestly thinking he has three games left in professional football given the above circumstances (probably will get cut, 30 year old runner out of a job, etc). If I were a Henry dynasty owner, I'd trade him for a TON of the guys you have below him right now, straight up.

According to rotoworld last night:When and if Travis Henry is suspended, the Denver Post believes Selvin Young and Andre Hall will become running backs 1A and 1B, respectively.

Beat writer Mike Klis in a Q and A compares the situation to 2005, when Mike Anderson rushed for 1,014 yards and Tatum Bell gained 921. Klis also writes that "there is some optimism in Dove Valley" that Henry will get away without being suspended. A decision could be handed down by mid-November.

More today from the uncertainty department on Travis Henry's situation:Broncos RB Henry's Appeal Delayed Again

Bill Williamson, The Denver Post -

A decision on Denver Broncos RB Travis Henry's future continues to be pushed back. An NFL spokesman confirmed Henry's league appeal is set to be heard Nov. 16 in New York, but like the previous assigned date, it could be moved back again. His appeal for a possible suspension for a positive drug test previously had been set for Monday. The current appeal date is scheduled three days before Denver hosts Tennessee, the team Henry played for before signing with Denver as a free agent. Henry's future with the Broncos might not be decided until weeks after the NFL hearing date.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

The main reason I don't think the problem is with Brees himself as far as his arm or mechanics or what not is that during the preseason, the guy was completing virtually every pass with ease. What's different now? I still contend it's the O-Line, although I don't have a particular reason why. But if it were something health-related where the problem was with him making the throws, I don't buy that he was able to do it so well even against sub-par defenses for 4 preseason games and then all of a sudden had a huge setback starting week 1 of the season.

Bumping this post by gianmarco for accuracy. We couldn't see through the fog of poor play and tired arm rumors a few weeks ago, but gianmarco was spot on with Brees.

 

[benm3218]

Just bumping this so it will be easier for me to find next time I look at it....

Still wish we could get it pinned. It has over 65,000 views. Hello!

 

[Fear & Loathing]

Experimenting with something new on the page 1 rankings. As most of you realize, finding free agent info -- specifically whether a player is unrestricted or restricted -- is an inexact science at best. The info isn't exactly at our finger tips for each player. However, I've been searching around, and I'm going to indicate 2008 free agents by bolding & italicizing the team abbreviation and coloring it blue. Additionally, I'm going to include a super-scripted [R] for restricted or (U) for unrestricted. If I'm wrong on a player's free agent status, please let me know. For example, if Marion Barber isn't really a restricted free agent, please don't leave me in the dark.

So the example should look something like this:

[42] Derek Anderson CLE[R] 24.2

[44] Michael Turner SD (U) 25.5

Helpful? Not helpful? Just plain distracting?

I've gotten through all of the QBs and most of the RBs.

One other small change is that I'm trying to add an ® after all rookies' names to indicate rookie status. Nothing major here....just doing it because I think it looks cool.

 

[Smizzy]

Experimenting with something new on the page 1 rankings. As most of you realize, finding free agent info -- specifically whether a player is unrestricted or restricted -- is an inexact science at best. The info isn't exactly at our finger tips for each player. However, I've been searching around, and I'm going to indicate 2008 free agents by bolding & italicizing the team abbreviation and coloring it blue. Additionally, I'm going to include a super-scripted [R] for restricted or (U) for unrestricted. So the example should look something like this:

[42] Derek Anderson CLE[R] 24.2

[44] Michael Turner SD (U) 25.5

Helpful? Not helpful? Just plain distracting?

I've gotten through all of the QBs and most of the RBs.

One other small change is that I'm trying to add an ® after all rookies' names to indicate rookie status. Nothing major here....just doing it because I think it looks cool.

Awesome,thanks man! It's perfect.

 

[valhallan]

I like the free agent status addition as I find myself looking that stuff up all the time. I think you're missing several though, if KFFL is correct:

http://www.kffl.com/static/nfl/features/fr...s/fa.php?y=2008

 

[Fear & Loathing]

I like the free agent status addition as I find myself looking that stuff up all the time. I think you're missing several though, if KFFL is correct:

http://www.kffl.com/static/nfl/features/fr...s/fa.php?y=2008

Thanks for the link. RE: Quarterbacks. I know that Tony Romo, Marc Bulger, Kyle Boller, Seneca Wallace, and possibly Jim Sorgi have signed since that list was generated. Some of the guys on the kffl list are worthless regardless of their free agent status.

I haven't gotten all the way through RBs yet, so some are definitely missing there.

 

[valhallan]

I like the free agent status addition as I find myself looking that stuff up all the time. I think you're missing several though, if KFFL is correct:

http://www.kffl.com/static/nfl/features/fr...s/fa.php?y=2008

Thanks for the link. RE: Quarterbacks. I know that Tony Romo, Marc Bulger, Kyle Boller, Seneca Wallace, and possibly Jim Sorgi have signed since that list was generated. Some of the guys on kffl list are worthless regardless of their free agent status.

I haven't gotten all the way through RBs yet, so some are definitely missing there.

Yeah, Mewelde Moore and TJ Duckett were two that I knew for sure.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

Another experimental idea....and one that I'll probably use more later in the season -- a superscript [T] for a candidate to be Traded in the offseason and an [X] for a candidate to be Released in the offseason.

I added this super-script code to the top of the page.

SUPER-SCRIPT CODE:

[R] = Restricted Free Agent

(U) = Unrestricted Free Agent

[T] = Candidate to be Traded in Offseason

[X] = Candidate to be Released in Offseason

Examples:

[7] Chad Pennington NYJ [T] 31.2

[2] [#]Trent Green MIA [X] 37.2

 

[Steelers22]

Great thread! Since we are talking about Gore, I would like to ask you a question about a deal I reluctantly did a few weeks ago to get Gore.

I traded:

Bush (very very hard to do)

Cooley

I got

Gore

Eric Johnson

How do you think I faired? Right now, it's not looking to great but Gore is just too good to stay this bad. In the long run, do you think it will pay off?

 

[Craig_MiamiFL]

Honestly, I think you lost on both parts of that deal.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

Great thread! Since we are talking about Gore, I would like to ask you a question about a deal I reluctantly did a few weeks ago to get Gore. I traded:Bush (very very hard to do)CooleyI gotGoreEric JohnsonHow do you think I faired? Right now, it's not looking to great but Gore is just too good to stay this bad. In the long run, do you think it will pay off?

I think Bush & Gore are a toss-up. Some days I like Gore better, some days I like Bush better. You got killed on the tight ends though....it's bad enough in redraft, but in dynasty Johnson has near waiver wire value whereas Cooley is borderline Top 5 .

 

[Fear & Loathing]

The torch has been passed.

250+ and 3 TDs with 7 minutes left. This guy's good.

 

[EBF]

Yea, I take back what I said about Bush being better than Peterson. Bush is great, but he doesn't break off the huge runs like AP.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

I dont understand your logic, sorry. You say that even though Kitna is 11 years older than Cutler he is more valuable in dynasty leagues because you want to win now. In most leagues Cutler is out scoring Kitna already this year. In 2 years Kitna will probably be totally worthless in dynasty leagues. Kitna is 35 and Cutler is 24. No one with any fantasy football intelligence would rate Kitna higher than Cutler in a dynasty league. Its not even close, just ask Dodds.

Is the season over? So Kitna is coming off a couple of down weeks. Where were they a few weeks ago? Where will they be a few weeks from now?

 

[Fear & Loathing]

Yea, I take back what I said about Bush being better than Peterson. Bush is great, but he doesn't break off the huge runs like AP.

I take back what I said about AP being the best RB to enter league since Bo Jackson or Marshall Faulk. He's up to Eric Dickerson and may pass him next week. Is Jim Brown in the crosshairs...?

 

[Limp Dogg Bizkits]

Time to move ADP up in the rankings.

He has to be the #1 pick in Dynasty and redraft next year.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

Time to move ADP up in the rankings.He has to be the #1 pick in Dynasty and redraft next year.

I beat you to it. He's moved up as far as he can.What's the single game rushing record? He's sniffing 300 right now after another 30+ yard run.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

He broke it. Called that shot a few weeks ago

 

[Dino]

Time to move ADP up in the rankings.He has to be the #1 pick in Dynasty and redraft next year.

YES He is young and just too dominating, first the Bears and now SD.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

Time to move ADP up in the rankings.He has to be the #1 pick in Dynasty and redraft next year.

YES He is young and just too dominating, first the Bears and now SD.

I can't move him up any further...

 

[Fear & Loathing]

He broke it. Called that shot a few weeks ago

From here on out to be known as the first time ADP broke the single game rushing record.

 

[Limp Dogg Bizkits]

Time to move ADP up in the rankings.He has to be the #1 pick in Dynasty and redraft next year.

YES He is young and just too dominating, first the Bears and now SD.

I can't move him up any further...

Give the kid his own tier then!

 

[shenski31]

Hey F&L,

Who do you see as the best dynasty buy-lows? Specifically for teams out of the running this year, who would you target? I'm talking about guys like Ronnie Brown and Cadillac Williams.

Thanks for your help.