Dynasty Rankings (4 Viewers)

[EBF]

I don't think we know enough about the talent and future situation of the No. 3 overall pick to say it's far more valuable than Tim Hightower right now.

I disagree with that. An average NFL draft class will have something like 6-10 skill position players chosen in the first round. The odds say that there will almost certainly be 2-3 impact players sprinkled throughout that group. I would much rather have a 30% chance at Reggie Wayne or Dwayne Bowe than a 100% chance at Tim Hightower. It's an even easier decision if you're talking about a top 3 pick. In most years a top 3 pick will net you a first round RB or an elite first round WR like Calvin/AJ/Rogers/Fitzgerald. There's no way I'm passing on that gamble for Hightower.

There are plenty of mediocre talents at RB that end up with fantasy value in the right situation. And as we've seen with guys like McFadden, Mendenhall, and even Jonathan Stewart, it's very easy for a high pick to actually lose significant value during their rookie seasons.

Right, but we're talking dynasty. A player's value can dip during his rookie season and he can still go on to become a great player. For that matter, is there anyone who wouldn't trade Tim Hightower for any one of those three guys you named? Burning Sensation will probably say that he wouldn't trade Hightower for Mendenhall, but I think most reasonable people would take any one of this year's 5 first round RBs for Hightower. Even disappointments like Benson and Maroney had a high trade value immediately after the NFL draft. So you'll almost certainly be able to flip a top 5 rookie pick for more than you'll be able to get for Tim Hightower come draft time.

Rookie picks are valuable assets. I agree that some owners overrate them and I agree that it's usually a bad idea to trade a proven veteran for picks, but Hightower is not a proven veteran. He's a seemingly mediocre prospect with a bad pedigree. The odds favor any random non-QB/TE skill position player chosen in the top 100 picks of the draft over him.

 

[Burning Sensation]

I don't think we know enough about the talent and future situation of the No. 3 overall pick to say it's far more valuable than Tim Hightower right now.

I disagree with that. An average NFL draft class will have something like 6-10 skill position players chosen in the first round. The odds say that there will almost certainly be 2-3 impact players sprinkled throughout that group. I would much rather have a 30% chance at Reggie Wayne or Dwayne Bowe than a 100% chance at Tim Hightower. It's an even easier decision if you're talking about a top 3 pick. In most years a top 3 pick will net you a first round RB or an elite first round WR like Calvin/AJ/Rogers/Fitzgerald. There's no way I'm passing on that gamble for Hightower.

There are plenty of mediocre talents at RB that end up with fantasy value in the right situation. And as we've seen with guys like McFadden, Mendenhall, and even Jonathan Stewart, it's very easy for a high pick to actually lose significant value during their rookie seasons.

Right, but we're talking dynasty. A player's value can dip during his rookie season and he can still go on to become a great player. For that matter, is there anyone who wouldn't trade Tim Hightower for any one of those three guys you named? Burning Sensation will probably say that he wouldn't trade Hightower for Mendenhall, but I think most reasonable people would take any one of this year's 5 first round RBs for Hightower. Even disappointments like Benson and Maroney had a high trade value immediately after the NFL draft. So you'll almost certainly be able to flip a top 5 rookie pick for more than you'll be able to get for Tim Hightower come draft time.

Rookie picks are valuable assets. I agree that some owners overrate them and I agree that it's usually a bad idea to trade a proven veteran for picks, but Hightower is not a proven veteran. He's a seemingly mediocre prospect with a bad pedigree. The odds favor any random non-QB/TE skill position player chosen in the top 100 picks of the draft over him.

Actually, i am not a big fan of either, and have them ranked similarly, with a slight edge to RM. I would certainly trade TH for any of the other 4 though. I should point out however, that in FBG consensus dynasty rankings, Hightower is ranked higher than Mendenhall.ETA, Bloom has Hightower ranked two spots ahead on Mendenhall.

 

[EBF]

84 carries isnt exactly a large enough sample size to judge Hightower, especially considering he was used as a short yardage back. Again, im not saying TH looks good, but its unfair using his YPC as an argument against him.

I watched the whole game against SF. In my opinion, he looked like junk.The stats say he's junk,His pedigree says he's junk.All signs point to junk.

I hate discussing Mendenhall again, but i have to say i see alot of similaties in his and Hightowers game. Obviously their draft position still carries some weight at this point, but i havent seen anythng out of RM to make me think he is any better than Hightower.

This might mean something to me if I valued your opinion of Mendenhall.Objective facts that offer hope for Mendenhall:1. He was a first round pick.2. Nine of the last ten players picked in the first round by the Steelers have become good NFL players.I don't think Mendenhall looked great in limited action this year, but I favor the objective facts over the subjective analysis of a guy on the internet who's been spewing "Mendenhall = bust" since Rashard's first preseason game.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

I don't think we know enough about the talent and future situation of the No. 3 overall pick to say it's far more valuable than Tim Hightower right now.

I disagree with that. An average NFL draft class will have something like 6-10 skill position players chosen in the first round. The odds say that there will almost certainly be 2-3 impact players sprinkled throughout that group. I would much rather have a 30% chance at Reggie Wayne or Dwayne Bowe than a 100% chance at Tim Hightower. It's an even easier decision if you're talking about a top 3 pick. In most years a top 3 pick will net you a first round RB or an elite first round WR like Calvin/AJ/Rogers/Fitzgerald. There's no way I'm passing on that gamble for Hightower.

There are plenty of mediocre talents at RB that end up with fantasy value in the right situation. And as we've seen with guys like McFadden, Mendenhall, and even Jonathan Stewart, it's very easy for a high pick to actually lose significant value during their rookie seasons.

Right, but we're talking dynasty. A player's value can dip during his rookie season and he can still go on to become a great player. For that matter, is there anyone who wouldn't trade Tim Hightower for any one of those three guys you named? Burning Sensation will probably say that he wouldn't trade Hightower for Mendenhall, but I think most reasonable people would take any one of this year's 5 first round RBs for Hightower. Even disappointments like Benson and Maroney had a high trade value immediately after the NFL draft. So you'll almost certainly be able to flip a top 5 rookie pick for more than you'll be able to get for Tim Hightower come draft time.

Rookie picks are valuable assets. I agree that some owners overrate them and I agree that it's usually a bad idea to trade a proven veteran for picks, but Hightower is not a proven veteran. He's a seemingly mediocre prospect with a bad pedigree. The odds favor any random non-QB/TE skill position player chosen in the top 100 picks of the draft over him.

All of what you say is true, but you're coming at it from a point of view of "Hightower = flash in the pan flop." There are a lot of owners coming at it from a point of view of "Hightower has a nose for the end zone, can catch passes, has no competition for carries, and plays in a dynamic offense with plenty of opportunities for scoring." What we know is that you don't like Hightower. What we don't know is if he will be a flop. I agree that he's a mediocre talent, but the situation is just about perfect right now. He wouldn't be the first RB drafted after Round 4 to find good Dynasty value. I'm not saying he will, but I can see why others would be willing to take that gamble in Week 11 of 2008.

 

[EBF]

All of what you say is true, but you're coming at it from a point of view of "Hightower = flash in the pan flop." There are a lot of owners coming at it from a point of view of "Hightower has a nose for the end zone, can catch passes, has no competition for carries, and plays in a dynamic offense with plenty of opportunities for scoring."

No doubt, and I would advise all TH owners to capitalize on this situation while they still can.

 

[travdogg]

Right, but we're talking dynasty. A player's value can dip during his rookie season and he can still go on to become a great player. For that matter, is there anyone who wouldn't trade Tim Hightower for any one of those three guys you named? Burning Sensation will probably say that he wouldn't trade Hightower for Mendenhall, but I think most reasonable people would take any one of this year's 5 first round RBs for Hightower.

I'd take Hightower over Mendenhall, but really I don't think that highly of either of them, neither are among my top-5 rookie backs. I'd take a guy like Ray Rice over either of them.

 

[EBF]

More that anything, I guess I'm just surprised that Hightower has so many fans. I've only seen the one full game and a handful of highlights, but to me he basically looks like your average Marcel Shipp, Wali Lundy, or Samkon Gado here-today-forgotten tomorrow washout. Totally disposable and forgettable.

 

[Burning Sensation]

84 carries isnt exactly a large enough sample size to judge Hightower, especially considering he was used as a short yardage back. Again, im not saying TH looks good, but its unfair using his YPC as an argument against him.

I watched the whole game against SF. In my opinion, he looked like junk.The stats say he's junk,His pedigree says he's junk.All signs point to junk.

I hate discussing Mendenhall again, but i have to say i see alot of similaties in his and Hightowers game. Obviously their draft position still carries some weight at this point, but i havent seen anythng out of RM to make me think he is any better than Hightower.

This might mean something to me if I valued your opinion of Mendenhall.Objective facts that offer hope for Mendenhall:1. He was a first round pick.2. Nine of the last ten players picked in the first round by the Steelers have become good NFL players.I don't think Mendenhall looked great in limited action this year, but I favor the objective facts over the subjective analysis of a guy on the internet who's been spewing "Mendenhall = bust" since Rashard's first preseason game.

Just because someone doesnt agree with your opinion doesnt mean they are not being objective. I just dont think he has looked good in the regular season or preseason. Yes, he was a first round choice, and by a team that has has success with first round picks, but that doesnt go too far with me once the guy actually starts playing in the NFL. Also, i never said the guy was a bust, although i may have said of the first 3 backs taken in rookie drafts, i thought he was most likely to be the one who would. Either way, i stand by my opinion that Hightower and Mendenhall have looked very similar to me in their limited playing time.

 

[Ron_Mexico]

Hightower just went for Thigpen in one of my leagues. I watched him plenty at Richmond and was never very impressed. He's in a near perfect situation in Arizona, so he'll get some points, but I don't think he's talented enough to keep producing when Warner is gone.

Makes sense in a redraft, not in a dynasty.

 

[treat88]

For both builders and contenders, nucleus player >>> draft picks.

Cardinal rule of dynasty leagues IMO. I only target guys I identify as elite talents, but I seem to move my picks for players every year. I've never regretted it.

I find this hard to believe. You have never found yourself on the bad end of a pick for player deal?I am usually trading players for picks, and while i have had good success doing so, i have certainly had a few backfire on me.

May be a sample size issue, but honestly no. No regrets to date.In my money dynasty league, I've essentially traded all of my 09/10 picks to acquire Calvin Johnson, Dwayne Bowe, MJD, Lawrence Timmons, Haloti Ngata, and Aaron Rouse.

You can see the profile I target. Young players with both a great draft pedigree and on field production. (Rouse may not work out, but he cost me a 5th so no loss)

I'll take the 100% chance these guys will be productive vs whatever the picks would have potentially brought me.

 

[J R]

84 carries isnt exactly a large enough sample size to judge Hightower, especially considering he was used as a short yardage back. Again, im not saying TH looks good, but its unfair using his YPC as an argument against him.

I watched the whole game against SF. In my opinion, he looked like junk.The stats say he's junk,His pedigree says he's junk.All signs point to junk.

I hate discussing Mendenhall again, but i have to say i see alot of similaties in his and Hightowers game. Obviously their draft position still carries some weight at this point, but i havent seen anythng out of RM to make me think he is any better than Hightower.

This might mean something to me if I valued your opinion of Mendenhall.Objective facts that offer hope for Mendenhall:1. He was a first round pick.2. Nine of the last ten players picked in the first round by the Steelers have become good NFL players.I don't think Mendenhall looked great in limited action this year, but I favor the objective facts over the subjective analysis of a guy on the internet who's been spewing "Mendenhall = bust" since Rashard's first preseason game.

Just because someone doesnt agree with your opinion doesnt mean they are not being objective. I just dont think he has looked good in the regular season or preseason. Yes, he was a first round choice, and by a team that has has success with first round picks, but that doesnt go too far with me once the guy actually starts playing in the NFL. Also, i never said the guy was a bust, although i may have said of the first 3 backs taken in rookie drafts, i thought he was most likely to be the one who would. Either way, i stand by my opinion that Hightower and Mendenhall have looked very similar to me in their limited playing time.

Hey burning sensation - I think what EBF means by "objective" here is more like the demographics of the case. Odds are someone picked that late in the draft is not going to have staying power, for example Mike Bell. He's not saying you're not being objective. Objective refers to the structural facts (x% of 2nd day RBs do such and such, etc.) and subjective to anyone's scouting opinion, not just yours.

 

[J R]

And if I had Hightower and didn't need him the rest of the season, I'd deal him for just about any 1st rd pick I think. With a guy of Hightower's limited abilities, you're always going to have to worry about some new guy coming along and eating into his touches.

 

[treat88]

And if I had Hightower and didn't need him the rest of the season, I'd deal him for just about any 1st rd pick I think. With a guy of Hightower's limited abilities, you're always going to have to worry about some new guy coming along and eating into his touches.

Agreed. Hightower is not an elite talent.Maybe the second cardinal rule of dynasty leagues is to move non-elite talents for picks while those non-elite talents hold value.Next use the picks acquired to acquire elite talent.Picks carry the lottery ticket factor. They can be used to get the elite players far more easily than a non-elite player.First cardinal rule would actually be to make sure you know how to define an elite talent.

 

[stevegamer]

And if I had Hightower and didn't need him the rest of the season, I'd deal him for just about any 1st rd pick I think. With a guy of Hightower's limited abilities, you're always going to have to worry about some new guy coming along and eating into his touches.

Agreed. Hightower is not an elite talent.Maybe the second cardinal rule of dynasty leagues is to move non-elite talents for picks while those non-elite talents hold value.

Next use the picks acquired to acquire elite talent.

Picks carry the lottery ticket factor. They can be used to get the elite players far more easily than a non-elite player.

First cardinal rule would actually be to make sure you know how to define an elite talent.

This is a good point, and one thing I'm trying to get better at. I can tell once they hit the NFL for a year, but before that, it's a crapshoot for me. I do much better dealing my picks away than making them - the guys I take generally get hurt or flame out - and I have no idea how to deal with the injury part of that equation.Right now my problem is Forte, as I think he's a good prospect, and it's clear that I'm in the minority here in that opinion.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

And if I had Hightower and didn't need him the rest of the season, I'd deal him for just about any 1st rd pick I think. With a guy of Hightower's limited abilities, you're always going to have to worry about some new guy coming along and eating into his touches.

Agreed. Hightower is not an elite talent.Maybe the second cardinal rule of dynasty leagues is to move non-elite talents for picks while those non-elite talents hold value.

Next use the picks acquired to acquire elite talent.

Picks carry the lottery ticket factor. They can be used to get the elite players far more easily than a non-elite player.

First cardinal rule would actually be to make sure you know how to define an elite talent.

I'm dubious of that possible second cardinal rule. First of all, it's too convoluted. If you don't plan on using the picks, then why trade for them? I was never a big fan of that "trade for something with the intention of moving it elsewhere" strategy.

More importantly, how could contenders get away with this during the bulk of the season? Contenders need their startable depth to deal with injuries and bye weeks. If you have Hightower, it's quite possible you need him as a matchup starting option or insurance. On my team I have guys like Hines Ward, Matt Jones, Sammy Morris, Todd Heap, and others that I don't consider nucleus players . . . but I certainly need them around for depth right row, especially Ward & Jones. But maybe they don't count under your theory because they're veterans?

I'll try to trade these guys in a month or two, but I tend to try to package them for upgrades more than going after draft picks.

I don't know. Maybe we agree more than I think. I don't really have non-elite rookie or second year talents on my roster anyway because I tend to move them quickly once I come to a decision on them.

 

[treat88]

I don't know. Maybe we agree more than I think. I don't really have non-elite rookie or second year talents on my roster anyway because I tend to move them quickly once I come to a decision on them.

I tend to make my decision about guys within the first season of NFL play, so I tend to act on what my eyes tell me quickly as well.As for that second cardinal rule. You are correct. Withdrawn. It was late and it sounded good at the time. Not so much in re-reading.I'll leave it at...Identify elite talent. Use picks and sub-elite talents to acquire elite talent.Keep it simple.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

I don't know. Maybe we agree more than I think. I don't really have non-elite rookie or second year talents on my roster anyway because I tend to move them quickly once I come to a decision on them.

I tend to make my decision about guys within the first season of NFL play, so I tend to act on what my eyes tell me quickly as well.As for that second cardinal rule. You are correct. Withdrawn. It was late and it sounded good at the time. Not so much in re-reading.I'll leave it at...Identify elite talent. Use picks and sub-elite talents to acquire elite talent.Keep it simple.

My kind of Dynasty owner.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

More that anything, I guess I'm just surprised that Hightower has so many fans. I've only seen the one full game and a handful of highlights, but to me he basically looks like your average Marcel Shipp, Wali Lundy, or Samkon Gado here-today-forgotten tomorrow washout. Totally disposable and forgettable.

I went back and checked my notes from Hightower on last week's Dynasty Stock Report at Rotoworld, and it read the following:

Who didn't see this one coming? Hightower is becoming the workhorse back in a high-flying offense. One could argue, though, that he is a prime sell-high right now.

I got caught up in playing devil's advocate on Hightower's trade value last night, but I definitely saw him as a sell-high coming off that 100-yard game against the Rams. I'm not sure you can sell as high this week, but I do agree that his value is fleeting.

 

[SierraKiloBravo]

I'm enjoying this thread and there's a lot of good discussion in here. I have a question. F&L, can you define your meaning of "nucleus player." I could probably hazard a guess, but I don't see it in here anywhere (which isn't to say that it isn't in here, but I just haven't found it). I understand it's generally a player you would build a team around, but what traits / characteristics go into that? Individual talent? Team opportunity?

Thanks.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

I'm enjoying this thread and there's a lot of good discussion in here. I have a question. F&L, can you define your meaning of "nucleus player." I could probably hazard a guess, but I don't see it in here anywhere (which isn't to say that it isn't in here, but I just haven't found it). I understand it's generally a player you would build a team around, but what traits / characteristics go into that? Individual talent? Team opportunity? Thanks.

Good question. "Generally a player you would build a team around" is a good start, but you're right that there's more to it than that. Qualities of a nucleus player:1. Derives the majority of his Dynasty value from talent as opposed to situation. Could succeed in any offense in the league. 2. Is in his fantasy prime.3. Is a playmaker and gets in the endzone.4. Is reliable weekly, or has given you reason to believe he will be a weekly stud in the future.5. Has no knucklehead factor, i.e. stays out of trouble and has no character issues. 6. Passes the "eye" test with flying colors.7. Off the table in trade talks.8. Talent is the trump card for nucleus players, but surrounding talent and situation can definitely give one nucleus player an advantage over another.Perfect examples of nucleus players: Jay Cutler, Adrian Peterson, Larry Fitzgerald (Rookie example: Chris Johnson)Perfect example of a nucleus-wannabe: Eli Manning, Joseph Addai, Brandon Marshall (Rookie example: Steve Slaton)

 

[EBF]

I'm enjoying this thread and there's a lot of good discussion in here. I have a question. F&L, can you define your meaning of "nucleus player." I could probably hazard a guess, but I don't see it in here anywhere (which isn't to say that it isn't in here, but I just haven't found it). I understand it's generally a player you would build a team around, but what traits / characteristics go into that? Individual talent? Team opportunity? Thanks.

I'm not F&L, but I think I understand the concept of a nucleus player pretty well.A nucleus player is an elite young player who can be expected to give you top notch production over multiple seasons regardless of situation as long he stays healthy. Adrian Peterson, Larry Fitzgerald, Frank Gore, and Brandon Marshall are obvious examples. You put them in your lineup and you forget about that starting spot. I also think there's a secondary class of nucleus players: guys who don't quite give you the stud numbers, but nevertheless remain useful for the duration of their prime. Laveranues Coles has been this type of player throughout most of his career. He's never been a difference maker like Randy Moss or Reggie Wayne, but he's always been a useful guy that can be your WR3 or give you a strong performance off the bench. Players like this are also desirable in dynasty leagues, but should be packaged for a true star if the opportunity arises. In a redraft league, you only care about who's scoring points right now. In a dynasty league, you're also concerned with who will be scoring points over the next 3-4 years. So you need to not only consider who's productive, but also who has the talent to sustain that production over multiple years. Those are the guys you want to build your dynasty team around.

 

[Tau837]

I'm enjoying this thread and there's a lot of good discussion in here. I have a question. F&L, can you define your meaning of "nucleus player." I could probably hazard a guess, but I don't see it in here anywhere (which isn't to say that it isn't in here, but I just haven't found it). I understand it's generally a player you would build a team around, but what traits / characteristics go into that? Individual talent? Team opportunity? Thanks.

Good question."Generally a player you would build a team around" is a good start, but you're right that there's more to it than that. Qualities of a nucleus player:1. Derives the majority of his Dynasty value from talent as opposed to situation. Could succeed in any offense in the league. 2. Is in his fantasy prime.3. Is a playmaker and gets in the endzone.4. Is reliable weekly, or has given you reason to believe he will be a weekly stud in the future.5. Has no knucklehead factor, i.e. stays out of trouble and has no character issues. 6. Passes the "eye" test with flying colors.7. Off the table in trade talks.8. Talent is all-important for nucleus players, but surrounding talent and situation can definitely give one nucleus player an advantage over another.Perfect examples of nucleus players: Jay Cutler, Adrian Peterson, Larry Fitzgerald (Rookie example: Chris Johnson)Perfect example of a nucleus-wannabe: Eli Manning, Joseph Addai, Brandon Marshall (Rookie example: Steve Slaton)

So if I read this correctly, you would characterize Cutler as "off the table" in trade talks. First off, I would never say any player is off the table, just that I might require such a high price for certain players that it is unlikely I'd ever trade them... but I guess that is semantics. I can see that sentiment for AP and Fitz, but I wouldn't put Cutler in that category.

 

[Tau837]

I'm enjoying this thread and there's a lot of good discussion in here. I have a question. F&L, can you define your meaning of "nucleus player." I could probably hazard a guess, but I don't see it in here anywhere (which isn't to say that it isn't in here, but I just haven't found it). I understand it's generally a player you would build a team around, but what traits / characteristics go into that? Individual talent? Team opportunity? Thanks.

I'm not F&L, but I think I understand the concept of a nucleus player pretty well.A nucleus player is an elite young player who can be expected to give you top notch production over multiple seasons regardless of situation as long he stays healthy. Adrian Peterson, Larry Fitzgerald, Frank Gore, and Brandon Marshall are obvious examples. You put them in your lineup and you forget about that starting spot. I also think there's a secondary class of nucleus players: guys who don't quite give you the stud numbers, but nevertheless remain useful for the duration of their prime. Laveranues Coles has been this type of player throughout most of his career. He's never been a difference maker like Randy Moss or Reggie Wayne, but he's always been a useful guy that can be your WR3 or give you a strong performance off the bench. Players like this are also desirable in dynasty leagues, but should be packaged for a true star if the opportunity arises. In a redraft league, you only care about who's scoring points right now. In a dynasty league, you're also concerned with who will be scoring points over the next 3-4 years. So you need to not only consider who's productive, but also who has the talent to sustain that production over multiple years. Those are the guys you want to build your dynasty team around.

Interesting that you cited Marshall and F&L specifically cited him as not being a nucleus player. It seems that you don't take into account character/off field issues, and F&L does.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

I'm enjoying this thread and there's a lot of good discussion in here. I have a question. F&L, can you define your meaning of "nucleus player." I could probably hazard a guess, but I don't see it in here anywhere (which isn't to say that it isn't in here, but I just haven't found it). I understand it's generally a player you would build a team around, but what traits / characteristics go into that? Individual talent? Team opportunity? Thanks.

Good question."Generally a player you would build a team around" is a good start, but you're right that there's more to it than that. Qualities of a nucleus player:1. Derives the majority of his Dynasty value from talent as opposed to situation. Could succeed in any offense in the league. 2. Is in his fantasy prime.3. Is a playmaker and gets in the endzone.4. Is reliable weekly, or has given you reason to believe he will be a weekly stud in the future.5. Has no knucklehead factor, i.e. stays out of trouble and has no character issues. 6. Passes the "eye" test with flying colors.7. Off the table in trade talks.8. Talent is all-important for nucleus players, but surrounding talent and situation can definitely give one nucleus player an advantage over another.Perfect examples of nucleus players: Jay Cutler, Adrian Peterson, Larry Fitzgerald (Rookie example: Chris Johnson)Perfect example of a nucleus-wannabe: Eli Manning, Joseph Addai, Brandon Marshall (Rookie example: Steve Slaton)

So if I read this correctly, you would characterize Cutler as "off the table" in trade talks. First off, I would never say any player is off the table, just that I might require such a high price for certain players that it is unlikely I'd ever trade them... but I guess that is semantics. I can see that sentiment for AP and Fitz, but I wouldn't put Cutler in that category.

If I had Cutler I'd want to stay on-board for the next 6 or 7 years. Similarly, I get ridiculously strong offers for Chris Johnson all the time because he's on my bench when S-Jax & Westbrook are both healthy, but he's off the table. I'm invested, and I want to stay invested.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

Interesting that you cited Marshall and F&L specifically cited him as not being a nucleus player. It seems that you don't take into account character/off field issues, and F&L does.

I would take Marshall on my team in a heartbeat, but I would consider him just outside of my nucleus when planning for the future. I need a nucleus player to instill a feeling of rock-solid trust that he will be there for the next 3-4 years barring catastrophic injury (Tom Brady this season). I don't feel that rock-solid about Brandon Marshall. In fact, I trust Eddie Royal more. Marshall is more valuable on a weekly basis, but I can plan my team better with Royal.Edit to try to add clarity: You can only allot so many resources to go after a No. 1 WR in trade talks. I'd use all of my resources to go after Fitz rather than Marshall if I need a WR to build around. Since Marshall would be a WR2 to me whereas he would be a WR1 to most other owners, he'd be cost-prohibitive to me. It would make more sense for me to target Royal as a WR2, since the cost would be lower and it would allow me to plan better for the future.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

Qualities of a nucleus player:

6. Passes the "eye" test with flying colors and gets you excited to see him play. There's no use denying the emotional or the "fan" factor in fantasy leagues. Owning, investing, following, and certainly watching "your guys" is half the fun.

Perfect examples of nucleus players: Jay Cutler, Adrian Peterson, Larry Fitzgerald (Rookie example: Chris Johnson)

Perfect example of a nucleus-wannabe: Eli Manning, Joseph Addai, Brandon Marshall (Rookie example: Steve Slaton)

So if I read this correctly, you would characterize Cutler as "off the table" in trade talks. First off, I would never say any player is off the table, just that I might require such a high price for certain players that it is unlikely I'd ever trade them... but I guess that is semantics. I can see that sentiment for AP and Fitz, but I wouldn't put Cutler in that category.

Amended Rule #6.

 

[EBF]

Interesting that you cited Marshall and F&L specifically cited him as not being a nucleus player. It seems that you don't take into account character/off field issues, and F&L does.

That's a valid point, but the impact of character issues is hard to quantify. Sometimes they end up being a lot of smoke and no fire, like with TO. You always hear about him being a troublemaker, but it has never really affected his FF production. Then there are guys like Charles Rogers and Maurice Clarett, whose character flaws completely wiped out any chance of them becoming productive pro players. Marshall has shown serious signs of knucklehead syndrome, but in terms of talent he's definitely a nucleus player. He might be the best WR under 25 in the NFL. His character issues aren't of the serious drug/crime variety, so I think the risk of him washing out is actually fairly low.

 

[stevegamer]

The nucleus player discussion is VERY interesting.

Judging character is actually easier, I think, given the 24/7 publicity. And EBF is right about there being different kinds of knuckleheads, although TO did have a fantasy problem when he got suspended.

So I'm guessing something like this kind of scale:

Ocho Cinco style troublemaker - fine.

Brandon Marshall/TO style - mostly okay, will get some suspensions.

Charles Rogers style troublemaker - steer clear, generally.

Chris Henry style troublemaker - run away.

Does that make sense?

 

[Tau837]

Interesting that you cited Marshall and F&L specifically cited him as not being a nucleus player. It seems that you don't take into account character/off field issues, and F&L does.

That's a valid point, but the impact of character issues is hard to quantify. Sometimes they end up being a lot of smoke and no fire, like with TO. You always hear about him being a troublemaker, but it has never really affected his FF production. Then there are guys like Charles Rogers and Maurice Clarett, whose character flaws completely wiped out any chance of them becoming productive pro players. Marshall has shown serious signs of knucklehead syndrome, but in terms of talent he's definitely a nucleus player. He might be the best WR under 25 in the NFL. His character issues aren't of the serious drug/crime variety, so I think the risk of him washing out is actually fairly low.

I get your point but disagree with your TO example. I mean, you appear to be disregarding the fact that his behavior caused him to miss the second half of the 2005 season in Philly. He was also suspended for one game by the 49ers after the Dallas star incident years ago... not sure if he was suspended other times or not, but he certainly didn't help his fantasy numbers by screaming at the OC on the sidelines and throwing Jeff Garcia under the bus.

 

[EBF]

The nucleus player discussion is VERY interesting.Judging character is actually easier, I think, given the 24/7 publicity. And EBF is right about there being different kinds of knuckleheads, although TO did have a fantasy problem when he got suspended.So I'm guessing something like this kind of scale:Ocho Cinco style troublemaker - fine.Brandon Marshall/TO style - mostly okay, will get some suspensions.Charles Rogers style troublemaker - steer clear, generally.Chris Henry style troublemaker - run away.Does that make sense?

I think it boils down to this question:Is the guy immature or is he malignant? Santonio Holmes and Brandon Marshall are immature. They have poor judgment, but I don't think I'd classify either as a rotten human being. On the flipside, Lawrence Phillips was a plague in human form. He dragged a girl down a staircase by her hair in college and was cut from the Rams after only one season because he was such a huge headache. When you see a pattern of serious criminal activity or drug use, it's probably a sign of things to come. Admittedly, it's not always black-and-white. What's the difference between Santonio Holmes and Pac Man? One guy seems like an immature kid who screws around too much. The other guy seems like he has some deeper, darker personal demons. How can I tell? On some level it's just a judgment call. Holmes always seems fairly cheery and composed whereas Pac Man looks dour and has had a long history of anger management issues. You generally want to avoid guys who have that dark side unless they've always been able to keep it in check (Steve Smith is angry man, but he's always stayed out of trouble with the law).

 

[EBF]

Interesting that you cited Marshall and F&L specifically cited him as not being a nucleus player. It seems that you don't take into account character/off field issues, and F&L does.

That's a valid point, but the impact of character issues is hard to quantify. Sometimes they end up being a lot of smoke and no fire, like with TO. You always hear about him being a troublemaker, but it has never really affected his FF production. Then there are guys like Charles Rogers and Maurice Clarett, whose character flaws completely wiped out any chance of them becoming productive pro players. Marshall has shown serious signs of knucklehead syndrome, but in terms of talent he's definitely a nucleus player. He might be the best WR under 25 in the NFL. His character issues aren't of the serious drug/crime variety, so I think the risk of him washing out is actually fairly low.

I get your point but disagree with your TO example. I mean, you appear to be disregarding the fact that his behavior caused him to miss the second half of the 2005 season in Philly. He was also suspended for one game by the 49ers after the Dallas star incident years ago... not sure if he was suspended other times or not, but he certainly didn't help his fantasy numbers by screaming at the OC on the sidelines and throwing Jeff Garcia under the bus.

Yes, and despite all of his blowups and drama, TO has probably been one of the top 3-4 FF WRs of the past decade. Right up there with Randy Moss, Torry Holt, and Marvin Harrison. I'll take a few missed games for ten seasons of dominance. With Brandon Marshall, who are you going to trade him for? Braylon "Dropsies" Edwards? Marques "Knee Operation" Colston? Andre "Underachiever" Johnson? Reggie "30 years old" Wayne? Every player has risk. Few players have elite talent. Marshall's character issues add some volatility to his value, but at the end of the day when you add up all of the variables, he's still one of the super elite WRs you can possibly own in dynasty.

 

[footballguy#1]

Interesting that you cited Marshall and F&L specifically cited him as not being a nucleus player. It seems that you don't take into account character/off field issues, and F&L does.

That's a valid point, but the impact of character issues is hard to quantify. Sometimes they end up being a lot of smoke and no fire, like with TO. You always hear about him being a troublemaker, but it has never really affected his FF production. Then there are guys like Charles Rogers and Maurice Clarett, whose character flaws completely wiped out any chance of them becoming productive pro players. Marshall has shown serious signs of knucklehead syndrome, but in terms of talent he's definitely a nucleus player. He might be the best WR under 25 in the NFL. His character issues aren't of the serious drug/crime variety, so I think the risk of him washing out is actually fairly low.

I get your point but disagree with your TO example. I mean, you appear to be disregarding the fact that his behavior caused him to miss the second half of the 2005 season in Philly. He was also suspended for one game by the 49ers after the Dallas star incident years ago... not sure if he was suspended other times or not, but he certainly didn't help his fantasy numbers by screaming at the OC on the sidelines and throwing Jeff Garcia under the bus.

Yes, and despite all of his blowups and drama, TO has probably been one of the top 3-4 FF WRs of the past decade. Right up there with Randy Moss, Torry Holt, and Marvin Harrison. I'll take a few missed games for ten seasons of dominance. With Brandon Marshall, who are you going to trade him for? Braylon "Dropsies" Edwards? Marques "Knee Operation" Colston? Andre "Underachiever" Johnson? Reggie "30 years old" Wayne? Every player has risk. Few players have elite talent. Marshall's character issues add some volatility to his value, but at the end of the day when you add up all of the variables, he's still one of the super elite WRs you can possibly own in dynasty.

I'd rather have Wayne or AJ in a heartbeat over Marshall. I think Edwards and Colston are probably right there with Marshall, maybe a notch below him.

 

[Tau837]

Interesting that you cited Marshall and F&L specifically cited him as not being a nucleus player. It seems that you don't take into account character/off field issues, and F&L does.

That's a valid point, but the impact of character issues is hard to quantify. Sometimes they end up being a lot of smoke and no fire, like with TO. You always hear about him being a troublemaker, but it has never really affected his FF production. Then there are guys like Charles Rogers and Maurice Clarett, whose character flaws completely wiped out any chance of them becoming productive pro players. Marshall has shown serious signs of knucklehead syndrome, but in terms of talent he's definitely a nucleus player. He might be the best WR under 25 in the NFL. His character issues aren't of the serious drug/crime variety, so I think the risk of him washing out is actually fairly low.

I get your point but disagree with your TO example. I mean, you appear to be disregarding the fact that his behavior caused him to miss the second half of the 2005 season in Philly. He was also suspended for one game by the 49ers after the Dallas star incident years ago... not sure if he was suspended other times or not, but he certainly didn't help his fantasy numbers by screaming at the OC on the sidelines and throwing Jeff Garcia under the bus.

Yes, and despite all of his blowups and drama, TO has probably been one of the top 3-4 FF WRs of the past decade. Right up there with Randy Moss, Torry Holt, and Marvin Harrison. I'll take a few missed games for ten seasons of dominance.

No one is saying TO hasn't been a great WR. Just as F&L suggested that Fitz is a nucleus player and Marshall is just outside that category, a similar analogy could have been made in the past with Harrison and Owens. I guess it depends on how small you make your nucleus player tier and what your exact criteria are. As I said originally, it appears that you and F&L have slightly varying criteria. I'm not saying you're wrong, just highlighting the difference and the fact that character/behavior can be a factor.

With Brandon Marshall, who are you going to trade him for? Braylon "Dropsies" Edwards? Marques "Knee Operation" Colston? Andre "Underachiever" Johnson? Reggie "30 years old" Wayne? Every player has risk. Few players have elite talent. Marshall's character issues add some volatility to his value, but at the end of the day when you add up all of the variables, he's still one of the super elite WRs you can possibly own in dynasty.

I don't consider Andre Johnson an underachiever, and, yes, I'd trade Marshall for him without hesitation.

 

[FUBAR]

For both builders and contenders, nucleus player >>> draft picks.

Cardinal rule of dynasty leagues IMO. I only target guys I identify as elite talents, but I seem to move my picks for players every year. I've never regretted it.

I find this hard to believe. You have never found yourself on the bad end of a pick for player deal?I am usually trading players for picks, and while i have had good success doing so, i have certainly had a few backfire on me.

May be a sample size issue, but honestly no. No regrets to date.In my money dynasty league, I've essentially traded all of my 09/10 picks to acquire Calvin Johnson, Dwayne Bowe, MJD, Lawrence Timmons, Haloti Ngata, and Aaron Rouse.

You can see the profile I target. Young players with both a great draft pedigree and on field production. (Rouse may not work out, but he cost me a 5th so no loss)

I'll take the 100% chance these guys will be productive vs whatever the picks would have potentially brought me.

If you're able to acquire those 3 players for 2 years worth of your own picks, of course you do it. Most of us don't play in leagues where those trades would fly. Unless of course you're trading good players along with the picks, then maybe.In my leagues, you'll be lucky to acquire either older productive players like TO / Tony Gonzalez, or young players who haven't shown much yet like Sidney Rice or Laurent Robinson. Maybe if you're looking at having the #1 pick you could get someone like Bowe, but MJD or Calvin would cost upwards of 3 1sts each.

I agree with your premise to a degree, but one of my cardinal rules is to adjust for the league.

 

[Burning Sensation]

Interesting that you cited Marshall and F&L specifically cited him as not being a nucleus player. It seems that you don't take into account character/off field issues, and F&L does.

That's a valid point, but the impact of character issues is hard to quantify. Sometimes they end up being a lot of smoke and no fire, like with TO. You always hear about him being a troublemaker, but it has never really affected his FF production. Then there are guys like Charles Rogers and Maurice Clarett, whose character flaws completely wiped out any chance of them becoming productive pro players. Marshall has shown serious signs of knucklehead syndrome, but in terms of talent he's definitely a nucleus player. He might be the best WR under 25 in the NFL. His character issues aren't of the serious drug/crime variety, so I think the risk of him washing out is actually fairly low.

I get your point but disagree with your TO example. I mean, you appear to be disregarding the fact that his behavior caused him to miss the second half of the 2005 season in Philly. He was also suspended for one game by the 49ers after the Dallas star incident years ago... not sure if he was suspended other times or not, but he certainly didn't help his fantasy numbers by screaming at the OC on the sidelines and throwing Jeff Garcia under the bus.

Yes, and despite all of his blowups and drama, TO has probably been one of the top 3-4 FF WRs of the past decade. Right up there with Randy Moss, Torry Holt, and Marvin Harrison. I'll take a few missed games for ten seasons of dominance.

No one is saying TO hasn't been a great WR. Just as F&L suggested that Fitz is a nucleus player and Marshall is just outside that category, a similar analogy could have been made in the past with Harrison and Owens. I guess it depends on how small you make your nucleus player tier and what your exact criteria are. As I said originally, it appears that you and F&L have slightly varying criteria. I'm not saying you're wrong, just highlighting the difference and the fact that character/behavior can be a factor.

With Brandon Marshall, who are you going to trade him for? Braylon "Dropsies" Edwards? Marques "Knee Operation" Colston? Andre "Underachiever" Johnson? Reggie "30 years old" Wayne? Every player has risk. Few players have elite talent. Marshall's character issues add some volatility to his value, but at the end of the day when you add up all of the variables, he's still one of the super elite WRs you can possibly own in dynasty.

I don't consider Andre Johnson an underachiever, and, yes, I'd trade Marshall for him without hesitation.

AJ has been an elite WR without Carr, and was pretty good one with him. The only WR i would consider trading for him straight up is Fitz, and im not even sure of that as long as Boldin is in town. I also prefer Colston to Marshall in dynasty leagues. Im not overly concerned about Marshall, but he is on a short leash, and his next suspension would likely be a lengthy one.

 

[Burning Sensation]

For both builders and contenders, nucleus player >>> draft picks.

Cardinal rule of dynasty leagues IMO. I only target guys I identify as elite talents, but I seem to move my picks for players every year. I've never regretted it.

I find this hard to believe. You have never found yourself on the bad end of a pick for player deal?I am usually trading players for picks, and while i have had good success doing so, i have certainly had a few backfire on me.

May be a sample size issue, but honestly no. No regrets to date.In my money dynasty league, I've essentially traded all of my 09/10 picks to acquire Calvin Johnson, Dwayne Bowe, MJD, Lawrence Timmons, Haloti Ngata, and Aaron Rouse.

You can see the profile I target. Young players with both a great draft pedigree and on field production. (Rouse may not work out, but he cost me a 5th so no loss)

I'll take the 100% chance these guys will be productive vs whatever the picks would have potentially brought me.

Wow, i see why you have no regrets. No way do players like that get traded for picks in leagues i play in.

 

[travdogg]

With Brandon Marshall, who are you going to trade him for? Braylon "Dropsies" Edwards? Marques "Knee Operation" Colston? Andre "Underachiever" Johnson? Reggie "30 years old" Wayne? Every player has risk. Few players have elite talent. Marshall's character issues add some volatility to his value, but at the end of the day when you add up all of the variables, he's still one of the super elite WRs you can possibly own in dynasty.

I have both Wayne and Marshall in my dynasty league, and I would trade Marshall before Wayne. I wouldn't trade either for AJ, and I don't think Colston and especially Braylon are in the same league as the other 3.If anything, I think Marshall's off-field issues add to his value as he's a lot easier to acquire than his talent says he should be. Is he more risky than you'd like? Sure he is, but he could be a top-3 WR for the next decade and I think he has more upside than any other WR in the NFL with the possible exception of Moss with a healthy Brady.If it weren't for his off-field issues I think many would rank Marshall as the #1 Dynasty WR.

 

[az_prof]

Interesting that you cited Marshall and F&L specifically cited him as not being a nucleus player. It seems that you don't take into account character/off field issues, and F&L does.

That's a valid point, but the impact of character issues is hard to quantify. Sometimes they end up being a lot of smoke and no fire, like with TO. You always hear about him being a troublemaker, but it has never really affected his FF production. Then there are guys like Charles Rogers and Maurice Clarett, whose character flaws completely wiped out any chance of them becoming productive pro players. Marshall has shown serious signs of knucklehead syndrome, but in terms of talent he's definitely a nucleus player. He might be the best WR under 25 in the NFL. His character issues aren't of the serious drug/crime variety, so I think the risk of him washing out is actually fairly low.

I get your point but disagree with your TO example. I mean, you appear to be disregarding the fact that his behavior caused him to miss the second half of the 2005 season in Philly. He was also suspended for one game by the 49ers after the Dallas star incident years ago... not sure if he was suspended other times or not, but he certainly didn't help his fantasy numbers by screaming at the OC on the sidelines and throwing Jeff Garcia under the bus.

Yes, and despite all of his blowups and drama, TO has probably been one of the top 3-4 FF WRs of the past decade. Right up there with Randy Moss, Torry Holt, and Marvin Harrison. I'll take a few missed games for ten seasons of dominance. With Brandon Marshall, who are you going to trade him for? Braylon "Dropsies" Edwards? Marques "Knee Operation" Colston? Andre "Underachiever" Johnson? Reggie "30 years old" Wayne? Every player has risk. Few players have elite talent. Marshall's character issues add some volatility to his value, but at the end of the day when you add up all of the variables, he's still one of the super elite WRs you can possibly own in dynasty.

I'd rather have Wayne or AJ in a heartbeat over Marshall. I think Edwards and Colston are probably right there with Marshall, maybe a notch below him.

People have a hard time discussing fantasy performance outside the context of the current season. I doubt too many people would have agreed with your statement that AJ has not underperformed if you had said it most other years. Beyond this season how many seasons has he been a top 5 fantasy WR? You could argue that it has been QB play or injuries, but the fact is that it has always been something--bottom line is that he historically has underperformed. Now will that continue? I don't know. He has a stellard year going and he is a great talent but he has not been a certain top 10 performer in the way that Harrison or Holt or TO or Ocho Cinco have and the way that I think Marshall has given promise of doing.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

Yes, and despite all of his blowups and drama, TO has probably been one of the top 3-4 FF WRs of the past decade. Right up there with Randy Moss, Torry Holt, and Marvin Harrison. I'll take a few missed games for ten seasons of dominance. With Brandon Marshall, who are you going to trade him for? Braylon "Dropsies" Edwards? Marques "Knee Operation" Colston? Andre "Underachiever" Johnson? Reggie "30 years old" Wayne? Every player has risk. Few players have elite talent. Marshall's character issues add some volatility to his value, but at the end of the day when you add up all of the variables, he's still one of the super elite WRs you can possibly own in dynasty.

I agree with your first point. A few missed games for ten seasons of dominance is a no-brainer. Gnawing anxiety makes it much less of a no-brainer.Re: Andre "Underachiever" Johnson. My foot. He was an underachiever with David Carr in the same way that Mr. 23 TDs, Randy Moss, is an underachiever with Matt Cassel. Or the same way Steve Smith was an underachiever with Chris Weinke. That's not underachieving. That's one man holding the offense hostage. Pair Andre Johnson with Jay Cutler and find out what happens. I understand being willing to take the gamble on Marshall as a WR1. It's all relative. If I didn't have Fitz and couldn't get my hands on Andre Johnson, Steve Smith, or another stud WR, I'd probably have to go banging on the Marshall owner's door too. I'm just saying his character issues make him a "hold your nose and send a trade offer" kind of player for me. You've said that his character issues aren't criminal in nature, but that's exactly what they are. Not only that, but he's drawn the ire of his head coach and position coach in his short career as well. I think Marshall is a knucklehead in the Plax vein, and I never wanted any part of Plaxico Burress.

 

[Underachievers]

I am new to this forum (been at the Fantasy Cafe for the past 5 years) and find this thread the most interesting one I have ever read.

I have taken special interest in the comments regarding Chris Johnson. I own him in one of my keeper leagues (which has pretty much standard fantasy scoring). My other keeper league is of the "old school" touchdown only variety. I have not seen mention of what Johnson's value may be in a league with that type of scoring.

What are the chances of Johnson ever being the feature back and recieving a majority of the goaline carries that now go to Lendale White? I could probably swing a deal for Johnson in that league but have been hesitant to do so. A RB soley between the 20 yard lines has very little value in a TD only format.

Thoughts?

 

[travdogg]

What do you think of Kurt Warner's dynasty prospects? Do you think he can keep this up through 2009 assuming Boldin stays put?

 

[Sinrj]

I'm enjoying this thread and there's a lot of good discussion in here. I have a question. F&L, can you define your meaning of "nucleus player." I could probably hazard a guess, but I don't see it in here anywhere (which isn't to say that it isn't in here, but I just haven't found it). I understand it's generally a player you would build a team around, but what traits / characteristics go into that? Individual talent? Team opportunity? Thanks.

Good question. "Generally a player you would build a team around" is a good start, but you're right that there's more to it than that. Qualities of a nucleus player:1. Derives the majority of his Dynasty value from talent as opposed to situation. Could succeed in any offense in the league. 2. Is in his fantasy prime.3. Is a playmaker and gets in the endzone.4. Is reliable weekly, or has given you reason to believe he will be a weekly stud in the future.5. Has no knucklehead factor, i.e. stays out of trouble and has no character issues. 6. Passes the "eye" test with flying colors.7. Off the table in trade talks.8. Talent is the trump card for nucleus players, but surrounding talent and situation can definitely give one nucleus player an advantage over another.Perfect examples of nucleus players: Jay Cutler, Adrian Peterson, Larry Fitzgerald (Rookie example: Chris Johnson)Perfect example of a nucleus-wannabe: Eli Manning, Joseph Addai, Brandon Marshall (Rookie example: Steve Slaton)

Great post. How many players would be considered "nucleus player" right now based on that list? I can't think of more then 15. Is Tom Brady still one? (stud with a terrible injury) or Braylon Edwards (underachieving stud) or Steven Jackson (Elite talent yet unreliable the last two years).

 

[Fear & Loathing]

Great post. How many players would be considered "nucleus player" right now based on that list? I can't think of more then 15. Is Tom Brady still one? (stud with a terrible injury) or Braylon Edwards (underachieving stud) or Steven Jackson (Elite talent yet unreliable the last two years).

I think the list is fluid. It should also be tailored to each specific owner. You just happened to mention two players I've used as my 3-man nucleus for the past four years, in Brady & S-Jax (along with Fitz). I've also had Brian Westbrook for the past 2+ seasons, but I've never really considered him nucleus because of his age and constant injury anxiety. I definitely still consider S-Jax nucleus because of his undeniable talent and the fact that he's still relatively young. I'm still considering Brady as nucleus too, but I think that one is more subject to change. As long as I have Kurt Warner around, I can afford to bank on a more risky Brady as well. Nucleus does not always fall in line with conventional wisdom on rankings. For instance, I have no doubt that Maurice Jones-Drew is a nucleus player because of his elite talent and playmaking ability combined with his age. He's not seen as a surefire Top-10 Dynasty RB by the majority of owners but he's the very definition of a nucleus player. If he's unstartable for a game here and there throughout the season, that's why you keep guys like Sammy Morris, Deuce McAllister, Earnest Graham, and Mewelde Moore around for depth.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

What do you think of Kurt Warner's dynasty prospects? Do you think he can keep this up through 2009 assuming Boldin stays put?

As long as Warner re-signs for two more years, I don't see why he can't keep it up . . . barring injury of course. And I am assuming Boldin stays put. The Cards aren't going to receive what he's worth to their offense and their franchise in the form of draft picks.

 

[BespokeJort]

first off, just wanted to say i love the blog...drafted a dyno startup this year, it was invaluable in making a couple close decisions in my draft (and my team's currently 8-2, leading the league in scoring, and ranked 1st overall).

just traded hightower and julius jones for steve smith in another league...thoughts?

This gives me a starting WR corps of Smith, Fitz, and Roddy, while my RBs consist of MJD, Grant, and spot-starts between J-Stew, Deuce McAllister, anthony gonzalez and santonio at the flex

 

[Anthony Borbely]

first off, just wanted to say i love the blog...drafted a dyno startup this year, it was invaluable in making a couple close decisions in my draft (and my team's currently 8-2, leading the league in scoring, and ranked 1st overall).just traded hightower and julius jones for steve smith in another league...thoughts?

I sure like the deal for you.

 

[Ripleys]

regarding Marshall conversation, today I did a trade, moving Edwards, A.Bryant, and a late 1st next year for Marshall and Hardy. I think Marshall's talent is worth the "bonehead" risk. Plus, hasn't he been pretty good off the field so far this year?

 

[TenTimes]

Wanted to discuss the Nov 13 QB rankings

2. Peyton Manning, IND | Age: 32.5 | Value Score: 98

vs.

13. Eli Manning, NYG | Age: 27.6 | Value Score: 70

Are they really that far apart? For as much as Eli has progressed this season, Peyton has regressed by about the same amount in the same categories.Completion Percentage

E from 56.1 to 60.5 (+4.4)

P from 65.4 to 61.1 (-4.3)

Yards/ Completion

E from 6.3 to 6.9 (+0.6)

P from 7.8 to 6.7 (-1.1)

and the big one, imo

Attempts/ Interception (going back 3 years)

E from 29 to 26.4 to 46.8 (+17.8)

P from 61.8 to 36.8 to 37.1 (-24.7)

The major thing in Peyton's favor is that he is getting about 6 more attempts per game this season (37.1 vs. 31.2), but since 2005, Eli's 2nd season and first full season, he has averaged 33.1 attempts/game vs. Peyton's 32.6, and according to the numbers above, if their attempts are about even, their numbers are going to be about even, plus Eli's numbers are going the right way while Peyton's are going the wrong way, double plus Eli is 5 year's younger than Peyton, triple plus the Giants offense is among the league leaders in scoring and yards per game while the Colts are among the league average.

Is it his potential that has Peyton ranked so much higher than Eli, because imo Peyton, and the Colts' best years are behind them, while Eli's best have yet to come.

FYI- not that it matters, but the fact that they are brothers isn't the reason I'm comparing them, there another reason, which isn't important.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

Wanted to discuss the Nov 13 QB rankings

2. Peyton Manning, IND | Age: 32.5 | Value Score: 98

vs.

13. Eli Manning, NYG | Age: 27.6 | Value Score: 70

Are they really that far apart? For as much as Eli has progressed this season, Peyton has regressed by about the same amount in the same categories.Completion Percentage

E from 56.1 to 60.5 (+4.4)

P from 65.4 to 61.1 (-4.3)

Yards/ Completion

E from 6.3 to 6.9 (+0.6)

P from 7.8 to 6.7 (-1.1)

and the big one, imo

Attempts/ Interception (going back 3 years)

E from 29 to 26.4 to 46.8 (+17.8)

P from 61.8 to 36.8 to 37.1 (-24.7)

The major thing in Peyton's favor is that he is getting about 6 more attempts per game this season (37.1 vs. 31.2), but since 2005, Eli's 2nd season and first full season, he has averaged 33.1 attempts/game vs. Peyton's 32.6, and according to the numbers above, if their attempts are about even, their numbers are going to be about even, plus Eli's numbers are going the right way while Peyton's are going the wrong way, double plus Eli is 5 year's younger than Peyton, triple plus the Giants offense is among the league leaders in scoring and yards per game while the Colts are among the league average.

Is it his potential that has Peyton ranked so much higher than Eli, because imo Peyton, and the Colts' best years are behind them, while Eli's best have yet to come.

FYI- not that it matters, but the fact that they are brothers isn't the reason I'm comparing them, there another reason, which isn't important.

I think you're way too caught up in the first 9 games of 2008 as opposed to the big picture. Even then, Eli has hardly been a great fantasy QB this year while Peyton was slow to come on with the knee injury and an injury-ravaged offensive line. What's more, it's clear to me that much of the improvement shown by Eli this season, i.e. completion %, interception %, YPA, etc. is the direct result of playing with a super-dominant rushing attack. We talked about the effects of a dominant rushing attack on QB percentage numbers last year with David Garrard and cited some historic examples (Big Ben's first 2 season, Boomer Esiason's MVP season with the Bengals -- to name a couple), and there's no doubt in my mind that dominant rushing attacks greatly skew QB percentage numbers. Other 2008 considerations: Peyton has the best game by an opposing QB all year against the dominant pass defenses of the Titans and Steelers. Eli hasn't thrown for over 200 yards since Oct. 5th.

Outside of the first 9 games of 2008, there are plenty of other factors. Peyton has never finished outside the Top-10 fantasy QBs in any season in his career. He's never finished outside the Top-5 in any of the past 6 years. He finished outside the Top-5 (sixth) one time in the past 8 years. In other words, what we have here is a guaranteed, consistent seasonal asset at QB and as consistent from game-to-game as any QB in the league over the past 5-8 years. You obviously believe that run is through. I believe, at age 32, he has plenty of excellent football left and makes for probably the best buy-low in football heading into the 2008 fantasy playoffs. He hit a rough patch to start the season because of his own injury, the mayhem on his offensive line, and injuries to his skill position weapons. He'll be fine the rest of the way.

Meanwhile, Eli hasn't been a fantasy asset. This is a QB with a Derek Anderson-like career 55% completion rate coming off a 20 interception season. He's also the very definition of a borderline QB1, which is what I always try to stay away from. Mediocrity = weekly losses in fantasy football. Why do I want the 10th or 12th best fantasy QB when I could take a chance on a guy who could be the 2nd or 3rd best QB?

I mean, correct me if I'm wrong, but the two are not even close. It's a whitewash.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

first off, just wanted to say i love the blog...drafted a dyno startup this year, it was invaluable in making a couple close decisions in my draft (and my team's currently 8-2, leading the league in scoring, and ranked 1st overall).just traded hightower and julius jones for steve smith in another league...thoughts?

I sure like the deal for you.

You ripped him off something serious.