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Dynasty Rankings (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Jeff Pasquino
- Start date
Jeff Pasquino
Footballguy
Some things I wanted to mention:
1. FBG scoring (no PPR)
2. Timeline roughly next 3-4 years.
3. My Top 75 looks way different than Bloom's because I have just 4 TEs and 10 QBs in the Top 75. (36 RB, 25 WR). That's my take on how the first 6+ rounds should be using that scoring system.
4. I'm sure I missed something - usually do - so feel free to let me know and I'll correct later today.
5. Didn't bother with K or Team D at this point.
1. FBG scoring (no PPR)
2. Timeline roughly next 3-4 years.
3. My Top 75 looks way different than Bloom's because I have just 4 TEs and 10 QBs in the Top 75. (36 RB, 25 WR). That's my take on how the first 6+ rounds should be using that scoring system.
4. I'm sure I missed something - usually do - so feel free to let me know and I'll correct later today.
5. Didn't bother with K or Team D at this point.
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What if you're not a subscriber?
Banger
Footballguy
pay up cheapo.What if you're not a subscriber?Can't I just get a li'l peak?How'z about revealing the 18th ranked WR?
higgins
Footballguy
How about the 18th ranked WR as a show of good faith?pay up cheapo.What if you're not a subscriber?Can't I just get a li'l peak?How'z about revealing the 18th ranked WR?
Liquid Tension
Footballguy
It is not TOHow about the 18th ranked WR as a show of good faith?pay up cheapo.
Jeff Pasquino
Footballguy
How about the 18th ranked WR as a show of good faith?pay up cheapo.
I can do that.My call - Plax.Bloom - Lee Evans.Combined - Hines Ward.I think you can figure out how to get the rest 
.
Jeff Pasquino
Footballguy
I'd seriously love to sit here and talk these for hours, but I got some last minute consumerism to take care of between kickoffs. I think you know what I mean.
Back tonight.
Back tonight.
higgins
Footballguy
How about the 18th ranked WR as a show of good faith?pay up cheapo..
Thanks, GB -- I'll be buying 3-yrs worth of subscriptions next summer!
Biabreakable
Footballguy
What method using this scoring system did you use in creating these rankings?
http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...howtopic=296123
http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...howtopic=296123
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
Why not create your own rankings? Make it Plaxico Burress or Donald Driver.If you search for dynasty rankings, I've been updating a thread every week. After the last regular season game, I'll have end of the year rankings.How about the 18th ranked WR as a show of good faith?pay up cheapo.
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well, for one thing, i think they're ok rankings. people can argue the 7th ranked vs. the 9th ranked all they want. that's insane. i'm more interested in why you have MBarber and Maroney marked so low. with Julius and Dillon either not on the list or all the way at the bottom, you clearly view them each as having a limited role going forward. shouldn't that intrinsically move Maroney and Barber further up? you mean to tell me that the NFC TD leader (Barber) is worth the same over the next 3-4 years as Hines Ward? that's crazy talk. esp when you consider where you've ranked julius. Barber needs to be top 10.Maroney as the 12th RB sounds reasonable, but still a stretch. with corey dillon all the way down at 41, and considering what they've done in tandem this year, you'd have to put Maroney in the top 6-7. but there may not be much of a gap between 7-12, so i can swallow it, though it still tastes funny.
Jeff Pasquino
Footballguy
I'll have more time later to elaborate, but I don't see who I can bump down to move up Barber or Maroney into the Top 10. (Both are in my Top 20, BTW).Let me know what Top 10 RBs should come out in favor of the younger RBs that are still fighting to be the primary backs.
Jeff Pasquino
Footballguy
OK, really got to go to the mall (can't you tell I can hardly wait?)
The real value in these rankings are at the bottom of the lists (per position). For example, why do I have those two guys at 34 and 35 at TE?
The real value in these rankings are at the bottom of the lists (per position). For example, why do I have those two guys at 34 and 35 at TE?
fair enough. i can see how Maroney can be perceived as "fighting to be the primary" back. like i said before, i think his ranking i can handle. but barber is #11 right now in his current role, and you've got him ranked #19. and this includes Jones being a much bigger part of the offense through the first 9 weeks. so are you predicting an overall huge downtick in Dal RB production? because if not, then Barber needs to be top 10, given where you've got Jones. otherwise, it makes no sense.i'm not inferring that you swap maroney or barber with someone, but rather slide everyone else down. though for those who i think you've ranked too high, i'd have to say SA, Portis, and Chad are all a bit high. for one thing, Chad may end the season with good numbers, but he's also been pretty unreliable. he had 6 games this season where he produced awful numbers. thats half the season. the #1 WR needs to be a consistent performer, in my mind. Smith, TO, Wayne, and DJax all come to mind. Portis may very well be in a RBBC next year, and the likelihood of which insinuates a top 20 ranking, not a top 6. and SA hasn't exactly set the world on fire this year, even when healthy. add to that the possibility that Jackson takes off, thus hurting the offense overall, and he's got to drop out of the top 10.of course, these are my opinions, but i'm curious what your thinking is with regards to the above should you disagree.good luck shopping. Sharper Image is my #1 ranked dynasty gift locale. it's indisputable.
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salmonstud
Footballguy
Jeff,
I would be interested in your explanation for having Cadillac Williams ranked higher than Kevin Jones as well as B.Westbrook in the top 5 overall in a non point per reception league. Those are the 2 things that really popped out at me in looking at your overall rankings.
I would be interested in your explanation for having Cadillac Williams ranked higher than Kevin Jones as well as B.Westbrook in the top 5 overall in a non point per reception league. Those are the 2 things that really popped out at me in looking at your overall rankings.
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BigJim®
Footballguy
I realize most of the shine is off Chris Brown, but I don't understand ranking guys like Wright, Pittman and Gado while leaving Brown unranked in a top 60. He could very well go to some other team and that team will not be signing him to wear street clothes each Sunday.
I was intrigued that you and Bloom are somewhat united on Calhoun, putting him above more proven RBs. Does anyone know why he got just a handful of carries this season leading up to the late injury?
ILoveMyLions
Footballguy
The word is here in Detroit that KJ may miss some or even ALL of 2007 season with the foot injury. I wouldn't touch KJ until I found out what the extent of the injury was. He should be bumped down on all lists until then IMO...
Jeff Pasquino
Footballguy
This is going to be a back and forth I can tell, so allow me to save this for later.
Jeff Pasquino
Footballguy
as to why KJ is down. Word I heard was that it is a BROKEN Lisfranc (which I didn't know was possible, but apparently it is - ask Jene or Shuke for more....). That's bad - like, really bad. Like 18-24 months bad.I think he can recover, but this is a LOOOONNNNGGG road back. Hence, he drops.As for Westbrook? Have you seen how many TDs and combined yards he has this year? In FBG rankings from this season he's Top 5 (#4) at the RB position. He's a guaranteed #1 pick next year (first round that is) in redraft or startup dynasty. Yes, previously he was worth far more in PPR leagues than in normal leagues, but he's having a season like Tiki did last year, and it just shows what he can do if he plays a full season.
Jeff Pasquino
Footballguy
Chris Brown is the third option on a team that will likely kick him to the curb next year. His value is through the floor (I'd put him around 70-75 at RB). Pittman is the #2 guy in Tampa Bay (even though Alstott steals TDs) and is a beast when Caddy is out. Gado has shown he can do good stuff in the NFL and he still seems to have some upside. Wright - more of a potential starter play than an overall stud. Brown - I see mostly downside. Maybe someone gives him a shot in an open tryout backfield next year, but how many of those will there be in March, and then again after the draft? Not many IMHO. I think he is the next "Whatever happened to Jonathan Wells" kind of back (and I think Wells was better).
Jeff Pasquino
Footballguy
I agree and that's something we will look into doing next year. Good suggestion
Biabreakable
Footballguy
So. Ancient Chinese secret?
Roulette? Projection based? Gut? What is the method/formula your using here?
Jeff Pasquino
Footballguy
First off, let me predicate this by saying that I like both MB3 and Maroney, and I own both of them in various leagues. Absolutely MB3 is a SOD candidate with all of those TDs. However, its the touches that concern me. I covered MB3 a ton for FBG earlier this year and I loved how he produced about as much or more TDs than JJones in about 1/2 the touches. TDs are more of a random event in the life of a RB or WR. Just as those that start Brandon Jacobs this year or TJ Duckett last year. MB3 has been $$ this year, and I love him going forward (hence he's a Top 20 guy), but if / when JJ is gone and he is slated for more work I'll move him up to about 10-12. I certainly think he has the potential to be a strong RB1, but part of dynasty ranks has to include the opportunity afforded to the player.Now, Maroney. Dillon needs to go away, then he'll elevate like MB3 will without Jones. He won't be as high, however, because he hasn't shown as much on the field yet. If I based the ranks entirely on skills and potential Michael Turner would be very high, but LT2 holds him back (and his future uncertainty of his next team and/or contract).That's the thinking.
Mister CIA
Footballguy
At first glance, it looks like you two are using different scoring rules for WRs.
Once you get past the first six or so, the divergence is obvious.
I've always bought high on Gates at TE, but #16 overall seems a bit much Jeff.
Once you get past the first six or so, the divergence is obvious.
I've always bought high on Gates at TE, but #16 overall seems a bit much Jeff.
Jeff Pasquino
Footballguy
I assume that you mean the overall rankings, not the individual position rankings.For me, I think you need a lot of RB talent over WR talent in a dynasty draft, so that's what I'd covet more than WRs. Bloom seems to disagree.We're not that divergent on each position, but I'd agree about your observation on the Top 75 / Overall list.As for Gates - He was often drafted in startup dynasty leagues in the late first / early second round. Granted those were PPR, so I could be convinced to lower him into the 20s. Not a bad observation.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
2 possibilities here:
1. I am on ignore.
2. Jeff is totaly ducking my question.
1. I am on ignore.
2. Jeff is totaly ducking my question.
Jeff Pasquino
Footballguy
let me look - I think it is 2.
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Doctor Detroit
Please remove your headgear
I really hope these rankings are off. Maurice Jones-Drew at 36? I hope not.
Jeff Pasquino
Footballguy
I think it is better for me to answer this question before reading the thread.I could have had Drinen run 5 year's worth of 10,000 game simulations, or copied Bloom, or ran Madden simulations, but I didn't.
The criteria question deserves a LONG response, it's that important.
Factors I look at:
Current Team System
Depth Chart Situations (Current)
Future likelihood of starting
Skills and Athleticism
Coaching Philosophy (Mike Martz? Herm Edwards?)
For WRs (and TEs), QBs on his team
For RBs, O-line
Age and Health - Will he last 1, 2, 3, 4 years or more?
Is he currently a stud
Could he become a studThat's a long list, and I don't put one above the other (except for "is he a stud right now").
Here's a simple way to look at it. Take the Top 12 guys at QB, maybe 16 as many Dynasty Leagues are big. Those are your fantasy starters. The next 12-16 should be a good mix of (current) starters and younger prospects. The rest of them should ONLY be guys that have the chance of breaking into the second level (2nd 16), hopefully the first.
I'll take Tarvaris - he's second tier, but if he develops he should break into the first.
I do similar things for RB and WR. The Top 12-16 are your studs, the next tier of 12-16 are second WRs (hopefully with a shot at moving up rather than down), and so on. The players after say #40 should be former studs winding up their career OR mostly guys with the skills to get into the Top 40 or higher if they get their shot.
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Jeff Pasquino
Footballguy
That sounds about right to me.About RB20 going forward.
Jeff Pasquino
Footballguy
I'm sure I will think of more, but "positional scarcity" is another factor. In 16 team leagues, QBs and starting RBs are gold. WRs are a commodity.
If you have a starting QB or one with potential, you can get a pretty good WR easily in return in a trade.
Everyone wants starting RBs and QBs, so if you collect depth there, some will pan out and you'll be able to sell the value to address other needs.
If you have a starting QB or one with potential, you can get a pretty good WR easily in return in a trade.
Everyone wants starting RBs and QBs, so if you collect depth there, some will pan out and you'll be able to sell the value to address other needs.
Mister CIA
Footballguy
Maurice Drew = World's fastest 15.5 lb. bowling ball.I have hopes he is a top 12 RB.
Michael Fox Fan
Footballguy
Wells rushed for 1167 yards (with 3.1 yards per carry average) in 4 years with the Texans. Chris Brown rushed for 1067 yards in 2004 alone. His career average is 4.2 yards per carry. I fail to see any reason why a comparison between these two players favors Wells. Fact: Brown was a solid starting RB with the Titans - his main issue is that he can't stay healthy. But his problem isn't lack of ability or production....Chris Brown is the third option on a team that will likely kick him to the curb next year. His value is through the floor (I'd put him around 70-75 at RB). Pittman is the #2 guy in Tampa Bay (even though Alstott steals TDs) and is a beast when Caddy is out. Gado has shown he can do good stuff in the NFL and he still seems to have some upside. Wright - more of a potential starter play than an overall stud. Brown - I see mostly downside. Maybe someone gives him a shot in an open tryout backfield next year, but how many of those will there be in March, and then again after the draft? Not many IMHO. I think he is the next "Whatever happened to Jonathan Wells" kind of back (and I think Wells was better).I realize most of the shine is off Chris Brown, but I don't understand ranking guys like Wright, Pittman and Gado while leaving Brown unranked in a top 60. He could very well go to some other team and that team will not be signing him to wear street clothes each Sunday.I was intrigued that you and Bloom are somewhat united on Calhoun, putting him above more proven RBs. Does anyone know why he got just a handful of carries this season leading up to the late injury?
Jeff Pasquino
Footballguy
Reasonable points, but I disagree with the perspective.Brown peaked in 2004. Priest Holmes was good then too. So was Domanick Davis.As for the career 4.2 yard average, he has average 3.8 in the last two years. 2004 helped him out there as well (4.8). 2004 and 2005 were about the same number of carries (220 to 224) yet Brown gained over 200 fewer yards in 2005 in four extra games. Brown's delcined since 2004 to the point where he can't even dress for the game half the time. Jeff Fisher isn't exactly drowning in talent, so if he could play, he would.Brown's upside is that he has fresh legs and he's 25. That's about it.Wells rushed for 1167 yards (with 3.1 yards per carry average) in 4 years with the Texans. Chris Brown rushed for 1067 yards in 2004 alone. His career average is 4.2 yards per carry. I fail to see any reason why a comparison between these two players favors Wells. Fact: Brown was a solid starting RB with the Titans - his main issue is that he can't stay healthy. But his problem isn't lack of ability or production....Chris Brown is the third option on a team that will likely kick him to the curb next year. His value is through the floor (I'd put him around 70-75 at RB). Pittman is the #2 guy in Tampa Bay (even though Alstott steals TDs) and is a beast when Caddy is out. Gado has shown he can do good stuff in the NFL and he still seems to have some upside. Wright - more of a potential starter play than an overall stud. Brown - I see mostly downside. Maybe someone gives him a shot in an open tryout backfield next year, but how many of those will there be in March, and then again after the draft? Not many IMHO. I think he is the next "Whatever happened to Jonathan Wells" kind of back (and I think Wells was better).I realize most of the shine is off Chris Brown, but I don't understand ranking guys like Wright, Pittman and Gado while leaving Brown unranked in a top 60. He could very well go to some other team and that team will not be signing him to wear street clothes each Sunday.I was intrigued that you and Bloom are somewhat united on Calhoun, putting him above more proven RBs. Does anyone know why he got just a handful of carries this season leading up to the late injury?
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Biabreakable
Footballguy
This is my perspective right now.After tomorows games the majority of championships will likely be decided. We have a lot of time now to look at how we are evaluating players and creating rankings. I know that you, bloom, Fear and Loathing and I am sure many others have ongoing rankings of players that are being periodicly updated. I can understand having a list in front of you and then having one player situation change such as Kevin Jones injury and then dropping him in your list as a judgement call to whatever slot you deem neccessary by evaluating what players you would take ahead of him in a start up draft or by trade.
I am not criticising this method of ranking. I know a lot of time and preperation has gone into getting to the point of where your rankings are right now. I also understand that it can be somewhat inituitive knowing and understanding your rankings to determine where to slot a player who's situation has changed. One suggestion/caution I have regarding this however is that by making a reasoned although arbitrary change(s) may cause different results than taking a wholistic start from scratch approach.
My point being that we have time right now to look at our strategy, philosophy and methods. I think it is worthwhile to do so. It is hard to do this in the heat of battle during the season when decisions must be quick and the focus is more directly focused on how do I win the next game or the next few rather than on how do I improve my whole game and strategy.
We have time to do this right now. And to me that is main purpose of these open forums to share ideas information and strategy to collectivly learn from one another. Sharpen our tools (perhaps begging a joke here) and fortify our weaknesses.
I was remarkably impressed by Drinen's study of comparative careers a year or so back. It was quite an eye opener although the landscape of the NFL is changing and offenses are producing more overall as time goes on. That historical then comparative study proved to be much more accurate than I ever imagined it would be however and gives great insight particularly into predicting young players that we don't have much data to work with and I hope to revisit this again in the near future.
This is a good list I assume player contracts are factors of 2 and 3. I think O-line has some impact on Qbs and thus on recievers as well. For example the Raiders this year. I don't think thier Qbs would have been as bad (although they still are not good) if they could have gotten better protection from the O-line. This is also attached to coaching scheme.You say you do not put one above the other in importance on this list. But I am still not sure how you develop rankings from all of these considerations.
Hmmm ok but I am still not sure what you did to determine this. As I went into at the begining of this post I am understanding that you have allready gone through this proccess of creating your rankings and have been updating from there. But my question and what I would like to discuss is more focused on how your originaly created your rankings. Or how you would do it starting from scratch today.
Jeff Pasquino
Footballguy
The general feel I have from your questions (which are valid) is that you're searching for a methodology for ranking dynasty players. That's really difficult to state. I think you're also looking for a quantitative method vs. a qualitative method - i.e. what factors in and what the results are - rather than a "gut feel".With dynasty, you have to trust your gut. How else can you compare an older WR that is high caliber (say Harrison) vs. a player that is emerging but not quite there yet (say Houshmandzadeh). Who's better? Why?
Comparing RBs that could break out vs. starting RBs vs. the Michael Turners and Brandon Jacobs of the world is even more complicated. I don't think you can be formulaic at all - it is about your football sense and what you feel is more valuable. Dynasty leagues vary. Owners' opinions vary (just ask Nightshift who is in "win now" mode and doesn't sweat the future much). Others build for the future for 1-2 years to try and be dominant for 5-6 in a row. Others try a mixture to balance.
There's no comprehensive way to do this - ultimately it is your own opinion, and people questioning your reasoning may make you re-think your rankings, or it could solidify your original thoughts. It's an opinion, even more so than in a redraft ranking.
Each factor I listed above matters, but I can't say one factor is dominant across the board. I may love the backup RB behind Tomlinson, but if he's trapped and can't get on the field I don't like him as much as another RB who could get a chance to to produce.
Hope that helps.
Some random thoughts:
Portis is too high. Remember when he was Porcellain Portis and the next Fragile Fred? Then he was a stud. Now he's Porcellain again and at risk to share time with Betts next year. That said, after the first few there's a drop anyway.
Kevin Jones needs to go way down given the injury suffered.
MJD has top 5 upside but I'm a little concernd he's already a regular on the injury list so a RB2 ranking is fair. MB3 too strikes me as a RB1 if allowed to carry the load but we haven't seen if he truly can thus the RB2 ranking seems fair. Addai and Maroney too. Norwood also shows flashes but is also not staying healthy in a very limited role.
Turner seems to have a world of upside but will he get opportunity? Are we spoiled with watching Jordan and Chester Taylor change teams and jump in value? I can't see ranking him higher than he is now. He was traded STRAIGHT for Steve Smith in one of my leagues and that same owner gave up Manning for him in another. That's just rediculous to trade SLEEPER at the value as if he was already a stud. He already hsa a decent shot to simply back up LT again next year.
Can Deuce and Bush both be that high? Bush came on while Colston was down. I think there isn't enough offense to go around. I'd move deuce down below Addai if nothing else. Bush especially in a non PPR concerns me a bit as well I just don't see him as a true RB1 but I could be wrong. I'd like to see him at the top of tier 2 and Deuce at the very bottom of tier 2.
Can Greg Jones, Taylor, and MJD all be listed?
Can you explain Calhoun's ranking?
Sammy Morris really climbed.
I'd think Henry needs to be higher and LenDale lower at this point.
Tatum is probably too high. I just can't see him as a long-term featured back.
Portis is too high. Remember when he was Porcellain Portis and the next Fragile Fred? Then he was a stud. Now he's Porcellain again and at risk to share time with Betts next year. That said, after the first few there's a drop anyway.
Kevin Jones needs to go way down given the injury suffered.
MJD has top 5 upside but I'm a little concernd he's already a regular on the injury list so a RB2 ranking is fair. MB3 too strikes me as a RB1 if allowed to carry the load but we haven't seen if he truly can thus the RB2 ranking seems fair. Addai and Maroney too. Norwood also shows flashes but is also not staying healthy in a very limited role.
Turner seems to have a world of upside but will he get opportunity? Are we spoiled with watching Jordan and Chester Taylor change teams and jump in value? I can't see ranking him higher than he is now. He was traded STRAIGHT for Steve Smith in one of my leagues and that same owner gave up Manning for him in another. That's just rediculous to trade SLEEPER at the value as if he was already a stud. He already hsa a decent shot to simply back up LT again next year.
Can Deuce and Bush both be that high? Bush came on while Colston was down. I think there isn't enough offense to go around. I'd move deuce down below Addai if nothing else. Bush especially in a non PPR concerns me a bit as well I just don't see him as a true RB1 but I could be wrong. I'd like to see him at the top of tier 2 and Deuce at the very bottom of tier 2.
Can Greg Jones, Taylor, and MJD all be listed?
Can you explain Calhoun's ranking?
Sammy Morris really climbed.
I'd think Henry needs to be higher and LenDale lower at this point.
Tatum is probably too high. I just can't see him as a long-term featured back.
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