Dynasty RB owners who could be :sadbanana: this weekend (1 Viewer)

[Sigmund Bloom]

With a deep RB class, we could see the first step in some changing (or at least sharing) of the guard this weekend - some thoughts:

Ronnie Brown, MIA - only one year left on his deal after this year and coming off a torn ACL + a new regime



Lawrence Maroney, NE - Pats seem comfortable to have him as an RBBC guy and Morris is 31 and coming off a harsh chest injury

Thomas Jones, NYJ - it'll be a win for his owners if they don't land McFadden. Buy low if you think Crazy Al is taking him.

LenDale White, TEN - 3 high picks in a row on RB? wouldnt put it past the Titans.



Joseph Addai , IND- Kenton Keith was a bandaid of a backup, and the Colts have to get a true compliment to him in there to preserve him for playoff runs

Maurice Jones-Drew, JAX - I don't think the Jags plan on ever making him a feature back and pulling the trigger on an RB to be his future partner in crime is a definite possibility.

Willie Parker, PIT - It'll be a win for his owners if they don't take an RB in the first 3-4 rounds.

Ladainian Tomlinson, SD - The number of round they take his new primary backup should be an indication of how much tread the Chargers think are left on his tires.

Justin Fargas, OAK - HUGE win for his owners if Crazy Al does not take McFadden. Michael Bush owners too.

Marion Barber III, DAL - His dynasty value almost assumes that he won't have a threat to split carries. His owners will have to hold their breath through two firsts and a second... although he's still an RB1 even if his role is the same as last year.

Brandon Jacobs, NYG - Only one year left on his rookie deal, and he probably wants more than the Giants are willing to pay an injury-prone back.

DeAngelo Williams, CAR - Another RB that we expect to be paired up with a top 10 RB from this year's draft. Unlike MBIII, his value seems to reflect the likelihood that his franchise goes RB in the first 75 picks.

Earnest Graham, TB - he was a nice story last year, and Warrick Dunn will play a decent sized role this year, so the need isn't immediate, but Graham is an FA next year...



Reggie Bush, NO - and by implication Pierre Thomas/Deuce - I think this is Deuce's last year with the team, but they might like Thomas so much that they feel they have the RB to pair up with Bush in the future.

Edgerrin James, ARI - Like Thomas Jones, it's a win for his owners if they DON'T go RB early.

Steven Jackson, STL - He only has one year left on his rookie deal...

Teams that should definitely be in the market for an RB without a solid starter right now:

CIN, HOU, DEN, DET, CHI, SEA

Teams that should stand pat at RB (which means at least one will surprise us and take a top 10 back this weekend):

BUF, CLE, BAL, KC, PHI, WAS, MIN, GB, ATL, SF

 

[Burning Sensation]

With a deep RB class, we could see the first step in some changing (or at least sharing) of the guard this weekend - some thoughts:

Ronnie Brown, MIA - only one year left on his deal after this year and coming off a torn ACL + a new regime



Lawrence Maroney, NE - Pats seem comfortable to have him as an RBBC guy and Morris is 31 and coming off a harsh chest injury

Thomas Jones, NYJ - it'll be a win for his owners if they don't land McFadden. Buy low if you think Crazy Al is taking him.

LenDale White, TEN - 3 high picks in a row on RB? wouldnt put it past the Titans.



Joseph Addai , IND- Kenton Keith was a bandaid of a backup, and the Colts have to get a true compliment to him in there to preserve him for playoff runs

Maurice Jones-Drew, JAX - I don't think the Jags plan on ever making him a feature back and pulling the trigger on an RB to be his future partner in crime is a definite possibility.

Willie Parker, PIT - It'll be a win for his owners if they don't take an RB in the first 3-4 rounds.

Ladainian Tomlinson, SD - The number of round they take his new primary backup should be an indication of how much tread the Chargers think are left on his tires.

Justin Fargas, OAK - HUGE win for his owners if Crazy Al does not take McFadden. Michael Bush owners too.

Marion Barber III, DAL - His dynasty value almost assumes that he won't have a threat to split carries. His owners will have to hold their breath through two firsts and a second... although he's still an RB1 even if his role is the same as last year.

Brandon Jacobs, NYG - Only one year left on his rookie deal, and he probably wants more than the Giants are willing to pay an injury-prone back.

DeAngelo Williams, CAR - Another RB that we expect to be paired up with a top 10 RB from this year's draft. Unlike MBIII, his value seems to reflect the likelihood that his franchise goes RB in the first 75 picks.

Earnest Graham, TB - he was a nice story last year, and Warrick Dunn will play a decent sized role this year, so the need isn't immediate, but Graham is an FA next year...



Reggie Bush, NO - and by implication Pierre Thomas/Deuce - I think this is Deuce's last year with the team, but they might like Thomas so much that they feel they have the RB to pair up with Bush in the future.

Edgerrin James, ARI - Like Thomas Jones, it's a win for his owners if they DON'T go RB early.

Steven Jackson, STL - He only has one year left on his rookie deal...

Teams that should definitely be in the market for an RB without a solid starter right now:

CIN, HOU, DEN, DET, CHI, SEA

Teams that should stand pat at RB (which means at least one will surprise us and take a top 10 back this weekend):

BUF, CLE, BAL, KC, PHI, WAS, MIN, GB, ATL, SF

These teams are more likely to take a back than half the teams you listed above, especially the Packers.

 

[SayWhat?]

With a deep RB class, we could see the first step in some changing (or at least sharing) of the guard this weekend - some thoughts:

Teams that should stand pat at RB (which means at least one will surprise us and take a top 10 back this weekend):

BUF, CLE, BAL, KC, PHI, WAS, MIN, GB, ATL, SF

These teams are more likely to take a back than half the teams you listed above, especially the Packers.

Exactly the point I was going to make, and add Baltimore to that list as well.

 

[dudaman]

Ladainian Tomlinson, SD - The number of round they take his new primary backup should be an indication of how much tread the Chargers think are left on his tires.

I believe that they will grab a RN in the middle of this draft, irregardless of what they think LT has left in the tank. They are good enough talent evaluators to get a guy that can fit into their system.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

Teams that should stand pat at RB (which means at least one will surprise us and take a top 10 back this weekend):

BUF, CLE, BAL, KC, PHI, WAS, MIN, GB, ATL, SF

These teams are more likely to take a back than half the teams you listed above, especially the Packers.

Here's my logic:CLE doesn't have a pick in the first three rounds. They might take an RB, but itll be a 6th/7th round flier, which doesn't really count for the purposes of this discussion.

KC seems pretty happy with Kolby Smith, and LJ has 2-3 years tread left on the tires. For the money they are giving him, they will ride him into the ground.

PHI I am figuring still expects something from Tony Hunt, and Ryan Moats could still play a role, but I can see a case for a top 10 back here.

GB I think really likes Brandon Jackson, although they are the most likely to be the surprise and use a premium pick on an RB for the second straight year.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

With a deep RB class, we could see the first step in some changing (or at least sharing) of the guard this weekend - some thoughts:

Teams that should stand pat at RB (which means at least one will surprise us and take a top 10 back this weekend):

BUF, CLE, BAL, KC, PHI, WAS, MIN, GB, ATL, SF

These teams are more likely to take a back than half the teams you listed above, especially the Packers.

Exactly the point I was going to make, and add Baltimore to that list as well.

I can see Baltimore taking someone in the 4th or 5th to upgrade McGahee's backup, but do you really think they'll take a top 10 back - use a top 100 pick on a back? McGahee's 27, and did everything they could have asked of him last year.

 

[kerpow]

The Colts may well take another back in this draft and who wouldn't with the talent so deep? But I'm confident it would be for depth rather than a substantial split of carries. Alot of people said Addai couldn't be a feature back last year, I think he proved us all wrong. I see the Colts grinding the life out of him during his rookie contract and then, just like Edge, thank him for his services and move on.

 

[identikit]

Ladainian Tomlinson, SD - The number of round they take his new primary backup should be an indication of how much tread the Chargers think are left on his tires.

I believe that they will grab a RN in the middle of this draft, irregardless of what they think LT has left in the tank. They are good enough talent evaluators to get a guy that can fit into their system.

LT needs an RN?

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

Teams that should stand pat at RB (which means at least one will surprise us and take a top 10 back this weekend):

BUF, CLE, BAL, KC, PHI, WAS, MIN, GB, ATL, SF

These teams are more likely to take a back than half the teams you listed above, especially the Packers.

Here's my logicHI I am figuring still expects something from Tony Hunt, and Ryan Moats could still play a role, but I can see a case for a top 10 back here.

On the Eagles - I wouldn't be surprised to see a late pick on a RB or an UDFA come to camp. They had a very off-the-radar guy from UDel in for a visit and showed some interest (Omar Cuff).

 

[Riffraff]

Ladainian Tomlinson, SD - The number of round they take his new primary backup should be an indication of how much tread the Chargers think are left on his tires.

I believe that they will grab a RN in the middle of this draft, irregardless of what they think LT has left in the tank. They are good enough talent evaluators to get a guy that can fit into their system.

It would have to be via trade then. Chargers have a 1st round pick, then don't pick again until Round 5. Not sure if Round 5 is considered a middle round though.

Would be really hard to read anything into Tomlinson's demise if they don't take a RB in the 1st.

I do hope they trade out of the 1st for a 2nd and 3rd.

 

[Chaos Commish]

The Colts just don't have the early picks for Addai to take much of a hit. Switz is pretty tuned into this situation even though he's caustic on the topic sometimes and I hate to give him credit.

I think he's right and Kieth is in for some odd competition, but Indy will not use their precious early picks on an RB. Some late round no name hand picked by Pollian is in the works it seems. We'll see.

 

[zamboni]

The Colts just don't have the early picks for Addai to take much of a hit.

What's their pick situation - are they down any?

 

[NorrisB]

Id like to add denver to your list bloom, Im not sold on any of their RBs and Im sure Shanny will take one fairly early in the draft.

 

[Tau837]

DeAngelo Williams, CAR - Another RB that we expect to be paired up with a top 10 RB from this year's draft. Unlike MBIII, his value seems to reflect the likelihood that his franchise goes RB in the first 75 picks.

Recent post on this:

Let's look at the Panthers under Fox:

2002 - 452/1586/11 rushing; Lamar Smith led with 208/737/7 (3.5 ypc); team was 7-9

2003 - 522/2091/9 rushing; Stephen Davis led with 318/1444/8 (4.5 ypc); team was 11-5 and lost in the Super Bowl

2004 - 422/1582/10 rushing; Goings led with 217/821/6 (3.8 ypc); team was 7-9; team rushing attempts down because both Davis (#1 on depth chart) and Foster (#2) were hurt early, and combined for only 83 rushing attempts

2005 - 487/1679/17 rushing; Foster led with 205/879/2 (4.3 ypc); team was 11-5 and lost in the NFC championship

2006 - 423/1659/7 rushing; Foster led with 227/897/3 (4.0 ypc); team was 8-8

2007 - 451/1824/7 rushing; Foster led with 247/873/3 (3.5 ypc); team was 7-9; QB carousel definitely hurt running game production

I think Fox definitely prefers to run a lot, and the two seasons in which the team was successful were the two best seasons for his running game. So the desire and offensive philosophy are there IMO.

As of now, here are the RBs on the Panthers besides Williams:

- Labrandon Toefield - 13 carries last year in JAX, 163 career carries in 45 games

- Goings - 30 years old, 0 carries last year and only 48 carries since 2004

- Alex Haynes - 3 carries last year as a rookie in CAR

- FB Brad Hoover - FB, turns 32 in November, only 12 carries last year and 44 carries since 2004

Meanwhile, Williams had 144 carries last season and averaged 5.0 ypc. So the only threat to Williams' rushing attempts at this point is a rookie. Given Fox's past tendencies to favor the veteran RB over the younger RB (Davis over Foster, Foster over Williams), it seems unlikely that a rookie will unseat Williams as Fox's lead RB, unless the Panthers draft McFadden, Mendenhall, or Stewart, which seems unlikely.

So IMO Williams is clearly the lead RB for the Panthers this season. Fox's lead RB has never had less than 205 carries, even though that often meant giving that many carries to RBs who were averaging 3.8 ypc or less. So it is safe to assume that he won't see fewer than 205 carries... but he could easily see more. Foster averaged 237 the past couple of seasons even though he gave up an average of 133 carries per season to Williams.

How about the passing game? Williams has shown very good ability there, with 56/488/2 receiving (8.7 ypr) in 29 career games. Those other RBs on the roster right now combined for 13 catches last season... none seem to be a threat to replace Williams in a third down RB role.

And that receiving production for Williams was with Foster getting 57/341/1 over the same span (the last two seasons). Between them, they had 113/829/3 in the past 2 seasons, so it is possible there could be 45-50 catches available for the lead RB.

What does all of this mean? Assuming the Panthers do not draft one of the big 3 RBs, I think it is reasonably conservative to project Williams with 240 carries and 45 catches. At 4.4 ypc and 7.5 ypr, that is roughly 1400 total yards, and I'd expect 6+ TDs if he gets those touches. 1400/6 was good enough for RB12 last year (FBG scoring), but I think those are conservative numbers with upside... he could get more carries and his career ypc (4.6) and ypr (8.7) are higher.

Williams = value unless the Panthers draft one of the big 3 rookie RBs.

 

[Chaos Commish]

The Colts just don't have the early picks for Addai to take much of a hit.

What's their pick situation - are they down any?

Lots of picks, just no early ones. A 2nd 59, 3rd 93, 4th 127, 5th 161, 4 sixths and a 7th. They would have to use the 2nd to land someone perceived as a real threat to Addai, and it seems unlikely. Only Forte has any reported interest of the possible suspects at that point, and I bet they have someone else at another position targetted there. The 3rd rounder could catch someone falling or Chauncey Washington or the like, but I doubt that happens unless one of the top 8 guys is in a free fall. Choice would be a good pick for them and nice support for Addai, but I suspect they don't even consider RB until that 4th rounder. Eh, who knows? Switz disagreed with me on this. I looked into it in more detail. He was on the right track and the Colts blog I was listening to was probably a little too excited about the RB idea.

 

[switz]

The Colts just don't have the early picks for Addai to take much of a hit.

What's their pick situation - are they down any?

Lots of picks, just no early ones. A 2nd 59, 3rd 93, 4th 127, 5th 161, 4 sixths and a 7th.

They would have to use the 2nd to land someone perceived as a real threat to Addai, and it seems unlikely. Only Forte has any reported interest of the possible suspects at that point, and I bet they have someone else at another position targetted there. The 3rd rounder could catch someone falling or Chauncey Washington or the like, but I doubt that happens unless one of the top 8 guys is in a free fall. Choice would be a good pick for them and nice support for Addai, but I suspect they don't even consider RB until that 4th rounder. Eh, who knows? Switz disagreed with me on this. I looked into it in more detail. He was on the right track and the Colts blog I was listening to was probably a little too excited about the RB idea.

I can't see them spending a #2 on an RB, unless a guy like Chris Johnson falls to them. They want guys that fit their system, more than just guys to load up a position. Choice, Forte, Smith just don't have good grades for the Colts from what I understand. So if someone is looking for the Colts to grab one of those guys, it will be with their third at the earliest, and I honestly see those guys going in the third, but earlier than the Colts picks. As CC says, that leaves guys like a Chauncey Washington, Steve Slaton and they aren't what the Colts want either.My guess is that the Colts are targettign a guy like Alley Broussard with a very late pick. He and Addai worked together before, he isn't going to cost much, and he'll be available very late, or possibly as a UFA.

Otherwise, expect the Colts to spend most of their picks on the D side of the ball, maybe grabbing on the O side line, TE, and WR.

Just a note on blogs written by fans - most of these guys are more tied into what other fans think than what the team really thinks. Another case in point, aside from Addai, is the lovefest for MB3. I think the OP here was right on track, and read a recent quote by a writer in regards to that as well. The teams aren't going to let much out, especially to people who write blogs, because those guys a looking for content, and will not keep their mouths shut in most cases. So basically, if you hear it on a blog, unless they have a direct quote, it's 99.9% speculation.

 

[switz]

DeAngelo Williams, CAR - Another RB that we expect to be paired up with a top 10 RB from this year's draft. Unlike MBIII, his value seems to reflect the likelihood that his franchise goes RB in the first 75 picks.

Recent post on this:

Let's look at the Panthers under Fox:

2002 - 452/1586/11 rushing; Lamar Smith led with 208/737/7 (3.5 ypc); team was 7-9

2003 - 522/2091/9 rushing; Stephen Davis led with 318/1444/8 (4.5 ypc); team was 11-5 and lost in the Super Bowl

2004 - 422/1582/10 rushing; Goings led with 217/821/6 (3.8 ypc); team was 7-9; team rushing attempts down because both Davis (#1 on depth chart) and Foster (#2) were hurt early, and combined for only 83 rushing attempts

2005 - 487/1679/17 rushing; Foster led with 205/879/2 (4.3 ypc); team was 11-5 and lost in the NFC championship

2006 - 423/1659/7 rushing; Foster led with 227/897/3 (4.0 ypc); team was 8-8

2007 - 451/1824/7 rushing; Foster led with 247/873/3 (3.5 ypc); team was 7-9; QB carousel definitely hurt running game production

I think Fox definitely prefers to run a lot, and the two seasons in which the team was successful were the two best seasons for his running game. So the desire and offensive philosophy are there IMO.

Williams = value unless the Panthers draft one of the big 3 rookie RBs.

One note on this... the reason Williams never took over Foster as starter, is he's not the type of runner CAR likes. Look at the guys on that list that got the majority of carries, all N-S guys, Smith, Davis, and the last few years Foster. They will look at an RB in the first round without a doubt. I am inclined to think they would prefer Stewart. And if they get him, barring an injury setback, he will be the starter.

 

[zamboni]

The Colts just don't have the early picks for Addai to take much of a hit.

What's their pick situation - are they down any?

Lots of picks, just no early ones. A 2nd 59, 3rd 93, 4th 127, 5th 161, 4 sixths and a 7th. They would have to use the 2nd to land someone perceived as a real threat to Addai, and it seems unlikely. Only Forte has any reported interest of the possible suspects at that point, and I bet they have someone else at another position targetted there. The 3rd rounder could catch someone falling or Chauncey Washington or the like, but I doubt that happens unless one of the top 8 guys is in a free fall. Choice would be a good pick for them and nice support for Addai, but I suspect they don't even consider RB until that 4th rounder. Eh, who knows? Switz disagreed with me on this. I looked into it in more detail. He was on the right track and the Colts blog I was listening to was probably a little too excited about the RB idea.

Good stuff - thanks.If #59 is the earliest they could grab an RB, I don't see much of a rookie threat to Addai. With RB not being a huge drafting need, they could very well wait on one. As an Addai owner, I' more worried about an Alexander or other vet signing at this point than a rookie.

 

[dmac37]

With a deep RB class, we could see the first step in some changing (or at least sharing) of the guard this weekend - some thoughts:

Teams that should definitely be in the market for an RB without a solid starter right now:

CIN, HOU, DEN, DET, CHI, SEA

Other than the obvious teams above, I see major dynasty value for the RB that AZ drafts. A rookie feature back will split time with Edge for 2008 but after this year the rookie should be in a GREAT situation.If Stewart falls to AZ, he should be #1RB in rookie drafts.

 

[Ned]

Teams that should stand pat at RB (which means at least one will surprise us and take a top 10 back this weekend):

BUF, CLE, BAL, KC, PHI, WAS, MIN, GB, ATL, SF

These teams are more likely to take a back than half the teams you listed above, especially the Packers.

Here's my logicHI I am figuring still expects something from Tony Hunt, and Ryan Moats could still play a role, but I can see a case for a top 10 back here.

On the Eagles - I wouldn't be surprised to see a late pick on a RB or an UDFA come to camp. They had a very off-the-radar guy from UDel in for a visit and showed some interest (Omar Cuff).

would love to see cuff get a shot!

 

[duaneok66]

I just don't undersand why people insist the Colts will draft a back . . .

Keith is being knocked, but he performed decently as a backup . . . Dawson is also there as well , and this time last year they didn't select anyone after everyone thought they should get a runningback . . .

as Swiz as said, I think they will get one late, if they get one at all . . .

 

[Tau837]

DeAngelo Williams, CAR - Another RB that we expect to be paired up with a top 10 RB from this year's draft. Unlike MBIII, his value seems to reflect the likelihood that his franchise goes RB in the first 75 picks.

Recent post on this:

Let's look at the Panthers under Fox:

2002 - 452/1586/11 rushing; Lamar Smith led with 208/737/7 (3.5 ypc); team was 7-9

2003 - 522/2091/9 rushing; Stephen Davis led with 318/1444/8 (4.5 ypc); team was 11-5 and lost in the Super Bowl

2004 - 422/1582/10 rushing; Goings led with 217/821/6 (3.8 ypc); team was 7-9; team rushing attempts down because both Davis (#1 on depth chart) and Foster (#2) were hurt early, and combined for only 83 rushing attempts

2005 - 487/1679/17 rushing; Foster led with 205/879/2 (4.3 ypc); team was 11-5 and lost in the NFC championship

2006 - 423/1659/7 rushing; Foster led with 227/897/3 (4.0 ypc); team was 8-8

2007 - 451/1824/7 rushing; Foster led with 247/873/3 (3.5 ypc); team was 7-9; QB carousel definitely hurt running game production

I think Fox definitely prefers to run a lot, and the two seasons in which the team was successful were the two best seasons for his running game. So the desire and offensive philosophy are there IMO.

Williams = value unless the Panthers draft one of the big 3 rookie RBs.

One note on this... the reason Williams never took over Foster as starter, is he's not the type of runner CAR likes. Look at the guys on that list that got the majority of carries, all N-S guys, Smith, Davis, and the last few years Foster. They will look at an RB in the first round without a doubt. I am inclined to think they would prefer Stewart. And if they get him, barring an injury setback, he will be the starter.

Good call.

 

[switz]

DeAngelo Williams, CAR - Another RB that we expect to be paired up with a top 10 RB from this year's draft. Unlike MBIII, his value seems to reflect the likelihood that his franchise goes RB in the first 75 picks.

Recent post on this:

Let's look at the Panthers under Fox:

2002 - 452/1586/11 rushing; Lamar Smith led with 208/737/7 (3.5 ypc); team was 7-9

2003 - 522/2091/9 rushing; Stephen Davis led with 318/1444/8 (4.5 ypc); team was 11-5 and lost in the Super Bowl

2004 - 422/1582/10 rushing; Goings led with 217/821/6 (3.8 ypc); team was 7-9; team rushing attempts down because both Davis (#1 on depth chart) and Foster (#2) were hurt early, and combined for only 83 rushing attempts

2005 - 487/1679/17 rushing; Foster led with 205/879/2 (4.3 ypc); team was 11-5 and lost in the NFC championship

2006 - 423/1659/7 rushing; Foster led with 227/897/3 (4.0 ypc); team was 8-8

2007 - 451/1824/7 rushing; Foster led with 247/873/3 (3.5 ypc); team was 7-9; QB carousel definitely hurt running game production

I think Fox definitely prefers to run a lot, and the two seasons in which the team was successful were the two best seasons for his running game. So the desire and offensive philosophy are there IMO.

Williams = value unless the Panthers draft one of the big 3 rookie RBs.

One note on this... the reason Williams never took over Foster as starter, is he's not the type of runner CAR likes. Look at the guys on that list that got the majority of carries, all N-S guys, Smith, Davis, and the last few years Foster. They will look at an RB in the first round without a doubt. I am inclined to think they would prefer Stewart. And if they get him, barring an injury setback, he will be the starter.

Good call.

Thanks

 

[cstu]

With a deep RB class, we could see the first step in some changing (or at least sharing) of the guard this weekend - some thoughts:

Thomas Jones, NYJ - it'll be a win for his owners if they don't land McFadden. Buy low if you think Crazy Al is taking him. for TJ owners

LenDale White, TEN - 3 high picks in a row on RB? wouldnt put it past the Titans. with Chris Johnson

Willie Parker, PIT - It'll be a win for his owners if they don't take an RB in the first 3-4 rounds. Ouch, not sure what FWP is worth now

Justin Fargas, OAK - HUGE win for his owners if Crazy Al does not take McFadden. Michael Bush owners too.

Marion Barber III, DAL - His dynasty value almost assumes that he won't have a threat to split carries. His owners will have to hold their breath through two firsts and a second... although he's still an RB1 even if his role is the same as last year. Felix could steal more carries that Barber owners would like

DeAngelo Williams, CAR - Another RB that we expect to be paired up with a top 10 RB from this year's draft. Unlike MBIII, his value seems to reflect the likelihood that his franchise goes RB in the first 75 picks. Sorry DeW, we hardly knew you

Teams that should definitely be in the market for an RB without a solid starter right now:

CIN, HOU, DEN, DET, CHI, SEA

Bears - Benson with Forte

Seahawks - JJ with no RB taken in the first 2 rounds

Teams that should stand pat at RB (which means at least one will surprise us and take a top 10 back this weekend):

BUF, CLE, BAL, KC, PHI, WAS, MIN, GB, ATL, SF

Ravens - McGahee with Rice

 

[Marc Levin]

With Baltimore's situation on offense and futility in the passing game, I think McGahee will see plenty of work. Rice will spell him, not replace him.

Good call, switz. Stewart/Williams in Carolina kind of looks more like the two-back system instilled by a few teams that can kill FF numbers.

 

[Mark Wimer]

DeAngelo Williams, CAR - Another RB that we expect to be paired up with a top 10 RB from this year's draft. Unlike MBIII, his value seems to reflect the likelihood that his franchise goes RB in the first 75 picks.

Recent post on this:

Let's look at the Panthers under Fox:

2002 - 452/1586/11 rushing; Lamar Smith led with 208/737/7 (3.5 ypc); team was 7-9

2003 - 522/2091/9 rushing; Stephen Davis led with 318/1444/8 (4.5 ypc); team was 11-5 and lost in the Super Bowl

2004 - 422/1582/10 rushing; Goings led with 217/821/6 (3.8 ypc); team was 7-9; team rushing attempts down because both Davis (#1 on depth chart) and Foster (#2) were hurt early, and combined for only 83 rushing attempts

2005 - 487/1679/17 rushing; Foster led with 205/879/2 (4.3 ypc); team was 11-5 and lost in the NFC championship

2006 - 423/1659/7 rushing; Foster led with 227/897/3 (4.0 ypc); team was 8-8

2007 - 451/1824/7 rushing; Foster led with 247/873/3 (3.5 ypc); team was 7-9; QB carousel definitely hurt running game production

I think Fox definitely prefers to run a lot, and the two seasons in which the team was successful were the two best seasons for his running game. So the desire and offensive philosophy are there IMO.

Williams = value unless the Panthers draft one of the big 3 rookie RBs.

One note on this... the reason Williams never took over Foster as starter, is he's not the type of runner CAR likes. Look at the guys on that list that got the majority of carries, all N-S guys, Smith, Davis, and the last few years Foster. They will look at an RB in the first round without a doubt. I am inclined to think they would prefer Stewart. And if they get him, barring an injury setback, he will be the starter.

Good call.

switz knows stuff.

 

[omally]

With Baltimore's situation on offense and futility in the passing game, I think McGahee will see plenty of work. Rice will spell him, not replace him.

I agree. I think Rice will play the part Musa Smith played, and McGahee will get as much work this year as he did last year.Even with Baltimore's offense as anemic as it was last year, McGahee did well.

 

[bigreese82]

 

[bostonfred]

I can't see them spending a #2 on an RB, unless a guy like Chris Johnson falls to them. They want guys that fit their system, more than just guys to load up a position. Choice, Forte, Smith just don't have good grades for the Colts from what I understand. So if someone is looking for the Colts to grab one of those guys, it will be with their third at the earliest, and I honestly see those guys going in the third, but earlier than the Colts picks. As CC says, that leaves guys like a Chauncey Washington, Steve Slaton and they aren't what the Colts want either.My guess is that the Colts are targettign a guy like Alley Broussard with a very late pick. He and Addai worked together before, he isn't going to cost much, and he'll be available very late, or possibly as a UFA.

Interesting that the Titans not only took but reached for the guy that you thought would be a good fit for the Colts. Maybe that played into their thought process - that it would not only be valuable to get some lightning to go with LenDale's thunder, but that it would deny a player to their division rival. What are your thoughts on Hart?

 

[switz]

I can't see them spending a #2 on an RB, unless a guy like Chris Johnson falls to them. They want guys that fit their system, more than just guys to load up a position. Choice, Forte, Smith just don't have good grades for the Colts from what I understand. So if someone is looking for the Colts to grab one of those guys, it will be with their third at the earliest, and I honestly see those guys going in the third, but earlier than the Colts picks. As CC says, that leaves guys like a Chauncey Washington, Steve Slaton and they aren't what the Colts want either.My guess is that the Colts are targettign a guy like Alley Broussard with a very late pick. He and Addai worked together before, he isn't going to cost much, and he'll be available very late, or possibly as a UFA.

Interesting that the Titans not only took but reached for the guy that you thought would be a good fit for the Colts. Maybe that played into their thought process - that it would not only be valuable to get some lightning to go with LenDale's thunder, but that it would deny a player to their division rival.

I'm not sure if the Colts view of Johnson had anything to to with TEN's drafting him, simply because TEN drafted him EARLY, and they still would have been able to nab him in round 2 before the Colts pick. I honestly never saw Johnson going in round 1, but fully expected him to be gone before the Colts round 2 pick. He will be a very good player for TEN.

What are your thoughts on Hart?

Hart's decent, very productive in college. In some ways he's a lot like Addai, more quick than fast. He's a bit smaller though, and had tons of durability issues in college. I figure he'll easily knock Keith out of the backup role. I had him in the third tier of rookie backs and don't expect him to see many touches barring an Addai injury. He's the type of back I figured the Colts would take a look at in a value position, and sliding into the 6th round put Hart in a good spot for the Colts.