Dynasty RB Rankings?!?! Where are they? (1 Viewer)

[THE UNDERCOVER BROTHA]

Mine may not be the norm but, here is how i would grab each rb if i was drafting for dynasty.

I play in both ppr and non ppr so i will just rate them in general.

1. M.DREW (i really think he can get better, i also think he will continue to be a high volume TD guy, love him in all formats)

2. AP (actually as good of a year he had last yr fantasy wise.....i really thought he could have done way better)

3. CJ3 (i think he regresses some yardage wise but i still see over 2000 total for him)

4. J.STEWERT (yeah i know this is high, but he is one of the few rb's that could post AP type of #'s, he is like a young SJax)

5. R.RICE (young 23 versatile rb who can do it all. To be honest while i like him this much (youth/talent) i expect the #'s to go down alittle)

6. DEANGELO (i can see alot disagreement here but i think he is another awesome talented rb who could have his own gig next yr)

7. F.GORE (only rated him lower than DWILL cause of his workload and he might drop in value sooner than DWILL)

8. J.CHARLES (if push came to shove i would draft Charles here over SJax and other rb's. Unless my eyes was playing games on me last yr i think this about right)

9. S.JAX (maybe low for alot of guys, but in a startup this is about where i would start considering him.)

10. MENDENHALL (good situation and could be looking at a 3down rb here. Likes his upside)

11. M.TURNER (not the biggest fan here, but at this point he will be a value pick for someone, just not me)

12. BEANIE WELLS (i think he can put it all together, just seems something wasnt clicking last yr for him, He is a good talent though)

13. R.MATTHEWS (gut call here. I just see this fella landing in such a plum situation hou/sd and exceling at the next level)

14. S.GREENE (should be a yardage monster next year with TJones gone. I dont like him as much talent wise but he has a awesome team situation)

15. FELIX JONES (maybe a bit high considering the 3 headed monster but he showed late last season why he should be considered this high)

16. C.BENSON (is he taking the TJones path?? He is a good bet to produce some big numbers if he is back with Cincy)

17. CJ SPILLER (at this point i would take a shot with him over whats left to choose from)

19. PIEERE THOMAS (sleeper rb of the yr.....thats all im going to say)

20. L.McCOY (in a high powered O, he has some tools although he will be in a nice timeshare)

21. M.FORTE (alittle low here and very good value for someone. He should bounce back as he can do better than what he showed...just alittle better)

22. K.MORENO (should improve on what was a pretty much lackluster rookie season.)

23. R.GRANT (pretty consistent but there looking to bring someone more explosive in)

24. D.BROWN (very high upside should he work harder to improve)

25. T.GERHART (cant even believe ME of all people saying this but i think this dude will break the racial lines and be a young BETTIS STUD like rb)

26. A.BRADSHAW (Jacobs is regressing, if not for injury AB would have already taken over....he has some nice potential here)

27. J.ADDAI (he still is the current starter in this high powered O and Peyton trusts him)

28. J.BEST (could definitely be moved up with a great situation, not all these smallish backs will take CJ3/Charles/Rice path some will be gimmick/COP rb's)

(yucky tier)

29a. R.BUSH (he looked better during there playoff stretch and wether back with NO or not he holds nice value here)

29b. D.McFADDEN (Young and a chance to improve...although he havent looked to good thus far but i would take a gamble here)

30. M.HARDESTY (again situation could push him much higher)

31. M.LYNCH (similar to McFADDEN, young and with a chance to improve and if nothing else he sits behind a older rb so his wait isnt long)

32. R.BROWN (hard to get excited about a rb thats coming off these acl's but when healthy Ronnie is elite but his window is closing fast!)

33. J.DWYER (Slipped alittle but really would you want any of those other rb's under him before him??)

34. J.HARRISON (before last yr i always wondered why the wouldnt run him more, he always seem to get like 10 yrds a pop when he touched the ball)

35. B.JACOBS (i personally feel he is regressing but he is that starter for now)

36. MBIII (honeslty whats the deal with MBIII, its like he's the invisible man, Felix and Choice both look better, will he remain with the boys?)

37. T.CHOICE (kinda hard to rank him under MBIII but it is what it is, he is young and should an injury or two happen you have a stud in your hands)

38. M.BUSH (to me is the best back on the raiders...not sure whats going on here but dude can flat all play)

39. F.JACKSON (he got some age but not mileage on him but he is a good value rb)

40. _______

fillin 40 w/ Portis/Westy/Caddy/KSmith/LeonW/Tate/Hightowner/Maroney/Slaton or any of them you like.

Just a personal preference list, so dont bite my head off, i know i might have some of your guys lower than you.

 

[Anthony Borbely]

4. J.STEWERT (yeah i know this is high, but he is one of the few rb's that could post AP type of #'s, he is like a young SJax)

I like seeing someone who isn't afraid to make a bold statement like putting Stewart ahead of Rice. I think his talent is off the charts and the only reason I have Rice higher is because his added receiving yards plus Cameron make him a lock to have big yardage numbers for several years. I'm sure you will have people saying you are crazy for this, but I certainly think it is legit to rank him that high. I also don't think there is any way I could personally rank him any lower than 5th. My gut feeling is Stewart will be the #1 RB at least once in the next 3-4 years. He has 1500 yard. 15 TD potential and there aren't many that can say that.

 

[THE UNDERCOVER BROTHA]

4. J.STEWERT (yeah i know this is high, but he is one of the few rb's that could post AP type of #'s, he is like a young SJax)

I like seeing someone who isn't afraid to make a bold statement like putting Stewart ahead of Rice. I think his talent is off the charts and the only reason I have Rice higher is because his added receiving yards plus Cameron make him a lock to have big yardage numbers for several years. I'm sure you will have people saying you are crazy for this, but I certainly think it is legit to rank him that high. I also don't think there is any way I could personally rank him any lower than 5th. My gut feeling is Stewart will be the #1 RB at least once in the next 3-4 years. He has 1500 yard. 15 TD potential and there aren't many that can say that.

Hey Anthony my man, You know im strong in my convictions. Remember i took your boy Calvin as the #1 wr off the board over all the wr's AS A ROOKIE!!Anyway i am a Rice owner and love his talents. I think he is a very good rb. I also feel balt will still use McGahee and i also thinks Flacco developseven more from a checkdown guy, not to mention if they add one of these top wr's more passes could be thrown elsewhere. All in all he is a very goodyoung rb. But there are factors that surround him which makes him as good as he was last year to me. In Stewert i feel you looking at a BEAST in the making. Factors WONT matter around him soon. He is superstud rb in the making ala AP/SJAX to name a few that come to mind. I think Stewert is younger also. As you said i think he will post a couple top 5 finishes soon. Now this doesnt mean Rice doesnt carry more current value cause he does. I do wonder how many Stewert owners would move him ++ for Rice right now though.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

Way overreacting to the combine on Dwyer.

My only problem with Jstew that high is the chance that Carolina re-signs Williams.

 

[Tanner9919]

Mine may not be the norm but, here is how i would grab each rb if i was drafting for dynasty.I play in both ppr and non ppr so i will just rate them

how you rank Shonne Greene sooo low is beyond me. I'd go something like this:1. Rice2. MJD3. Greene4. <Chargers starting RB> - Ryan Matthews *will* be the Chargers starting RB,imo.5. D'Angelo Williams6. Benson7. J. Charles - recs will go thru the roof with Oc Charlie Weiss 8. Sjax9. Gore10. Mendenhall11.ADP12. Chris Johnson13. J. Stewart14. Michael Bush15. Wells16. Turner17. Fred Jackson Fred Jackson is under appreciated....Gore,Sjax, Benson will be top 10 guys once again..ADP slips ( badly, IMO) because he's a fumbling machine and went 9 weeks without a 100 yard game last season WITH Favre and his 33/7 td/int performance at QB.but the biggest caveat with ADP is that his ypc avg has consistently and steadily dropped since turning pro, from 5.6 in '07, to 4.8 in '08, to a ho-hum 4.4 in '09.at this rate, he'll clip somewhere between 3.9 and 4.0 in '10. Forget about J. Stewart taking over the starting role for D. Williams...he's a great compliment to Williams, but won't start over him unless D. Will is hurt or traded.Rice, MJD, Greene could go 1-3 ,in any order.but the top 3,IMO, will be these guys..pick your poison.J. Charles is going to see a truckload of passes coming his way this season with Weiss' `quick dump-offs to the RB `type of offense..Norv Turner can take a truck driver and turn him into a pro bowl RB..so the Chargers RB, IMO, will be a top 5 player at his position this season...

 

[Mr. Peterson]

Mine may not be the norm but, here is how i would grab each rb if i was drafting for dynasty.

I play in both ppr and non ppr so i will just rate them

how you rank Shonne Greene sooo low is beyond me. I'd go something like this:

1. Rice

2. MJD

3. Greene

4. <Chargers starting RB> - Ryan Matthews *will* be the Chargers starting RB,imo.

5. D'Angelo Williams

6. Benson

7. J. Charles - recs will go thru the roof with Oc Charlie Weiss

8. Sjax

9. Gore

10. Mendenhall

11.ADP

12. Chris Johnson

13. J. Stewart

14. Michael Bush

15. Wells

16. Turner

17. Fred Jackson

Fred Jackson is under appreciated....Gore,Sjax, Benson will be top 10 guys once again..

ADP slips ( badly, IMO) because he's a fumbling machine and went 9 weeks without a 100 yard game last season WITH Favre and his 33/7 td/int performance at QB.

but the biggest caveat with ADP is that his ypc avg has consistently and steadily dropped since turning pro, from 5.6 in '07, to 4.8 in '08, to a ho-hum 4.4 in '09.at this rate, he'll clip somewhere between 3.9 and 4.0 in '10.

Forget about J. Stewart taking over the starting role for D. Williams...he's a great compliment to Williams, but won't start over him unless D. Will is hurt or traded.

Rice, MJD, Greene could go 1-3 ,in any order.but the top 3,IMO, will be these guys..pick your poison.

J. Charles is going to see a truckload of passes coming his way this season with Weiss' `quick dump-offs to the RB `type of offense..

Norv Turner can take a truck driver and turn him into a pro bowl RB..so the Chargers RB, IMO, will be a top 5 player at his position this season...

I don't know if you fully believe this or if you're just trying to be different and get a reaction. I don't even know where to begin to start telling you how off you are. But if you honestly believe what you say here then you might want to start a different hobby. Unless you don't mind being one of the worst teams in your league every year.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

ppr rankings:

1 Adrian Peterson

2 Maurice Jones-Drew

3 Chris Johnson

4 Steven Jackson

5 Ray Rice

6 D'Angelo Williams

7 Jonathan Stewart

8 Rashard Mendenhall

9 Frank Gore

10 Michael Turner

11 Knowshon Moreno

12 Cedric Benson

13 Beanie Wells

14 Jamal Charles

15 Felix Jones

16 Ronnie Brown

17 Marshawn Lynch

18 Shonn Greene

19 Matt Forte

20 Marion Barber III

21 Pierre Thomas

22 Ahmad Bradshaw

23 Brandon Jacobs

24 LeSean McCoy

25 Kevin Smith

26 Joseph Addai

27 Ryan Grant

28 Laurence Maroney

29 Reggie Bush

30 Darren McFadden

31 Donald Brown

32 Jerrome Harrison

33 Clinton Portis

34 Willis McGahee

35 Steve Slaton

36 Tashard Choice

37 Tim Hightower

38 Leon Washington

39 Justin Forsett

40 Darren Sproles

ETA: I did not slot any rookies yet, as I still need a little time to consider them.

 

[finito]

Mine may not be the norm but, here is how i would grab each rb if i was drafting for dynasty.I play in both ppr and non ppr so i will just rate them

how you rank Shonne Greene sooo low is beyond me. I'd go something like this:3. Greene

Wow. Greene looked nice in the playoffs but #3?

 

[Frank Costanza's Lawyer]

how you rank Shonne Greene sooo low is beyond me. I'd go something like this:1. Rice2. MJD3. Greene4. <Chargers starting RB> - Ryan Matthews *will* be the Chargers starting RB,imo.5. D'Angelo Williams6. Benson7. J. Charles - recs will go thru the roof with Oc Charlie Weiss 8. Sjax9. Gore10. Mendenhall11.ADP12. Chris Johnson13. J. Stewart14. Michael Bush15. Wells16. Turner17. Fred Jackson Fred Jackson is under appreciated....Gore,Sjax, Benson will be top 10 guys once again..ADP slips ( badly, IMO) because he's a fumbling machine and went 9 weeks without a 100 yard game last season WITH Favre and his 33/7 td/int performance at QB.but the biggest caveat with ADP is that his ypc avg has consistently and steadily dropped since turning pro, from 5.6 in '07, to 4.8 in '08, to a ho-hum 4.4 in '09.at this rate, he'll clip somewhere between 3.9 and 4.0 in '10. Forget about J. Stewart taking over the starting role for D. Williams...he's a great compliment to Williams, but won't start over him unless D. Will is hurt or traded.Rice, MJD, Greene could go 1-3 ,in any order.but the top 3,IMO, will be these guys..pick your poison.J. Charles is going to see a truckload of passes coming his way this season with Weiss' `quick dump-offs to the RB `type of offense..Norv Turner can take a truck driver and turn him into a pro bowl RB..so the Chargers RB, IMO, will be a top 5 player at his position this season...

Are these your dynasty rankings or your 2010 redraft rankings?You make a lot of references to 2010 but dont seem to account for seasons beyond it. Fred Jackson will turn 30 during the 2010 season. D. Williams' contract is up at the end of 2010. You dock ADP for his lack of 100 yard games with Favre, yet say nothing about ADP's increase in TDs (sustained drives?) and increased role in the passing game (more than twice the number of receptions and receiving yards than last season).ETA: Id also be interested in hearing your explanation for Chris Johnson at 12.

 

[thecardiackid]

Mine may not be the norm but, here is how i would grab each rb if i was drafting for dynasty.

I play in both ppr and non ppr so i will just rate them in general.

37. T.CHOICE (kinda hard to rank him under MBIII but it is what it is, he is young and should an injury or two happen you have a stud in your hands)

fillin 40 w/ Portis/Westy/Caddy/KSmith/LeonW/Tate/Hightowner/Maroney/Slaton or any of them you like.

Just a personal preference list, so dont bite my head off, i know i might have some of your guys lower than you.

NTTAWWT

Just kidding UB - but I think you're safer going with "ON your hands".

Thx for sharing your list and thoughts.

 

[The Captain]

Mine may not be the norm but, here is how i would grab each rb if i was drafting for dynasty.I play in both ppr and non ppr so i will just rate them

how you rank Shonne Greene sooo low is beyond me. I'd go something like this:1. Rice2. MJD3. Greene4. <Chargers starting RB> - Ryan Matthews *will* be the Chargers starting RB,imo.5. D'Angelo Williams6. Benson7. J. Charles - recs will go thru the roof with Oc Charlie Weiss 8. Sjax9. Gore10. Mendenhall11.ADP12. Chris Johnson13. J. Stewart14. Michael Bush15. Wells16. Turner17. Fred Jackson Fred Jackson is under appreciated....Gore,Sjax, Benson will be top 10 guys once again..ADP slips ( badly, IMO) because he's a fumbling machine and went 9 weeks without a 100 yard game last season WITH Favre and his 33/7 td/int performance at QB.but the biggest caveat with ADP is that his ypc avg has consistently and steadily dropped since turning pro, from 5.6 in '07, to 4.8 in '08, to a ho-hum 4.4 in '09.at this rate, he'll clip somewhere between 3.9 and 4.0 in '10. Forget about J. Stewart taking over the starting role for D. Williams...he's a great compliment to Williams, but won't start over him unless D. Will is hurt or traded.Rice, MJD, Greene could go 1-3 ,in any order.but the top 3,IMO, will be these guys..pick your poison.J. Charles is going to see a truckload of passes coming his way this season with Weiss' `quick dump-offs to the RB `type of offense..Norv Turner can take a truck driver and turn him into a pro bowl RB..so the Chargers RB, IMO, will be a top 5 player at his position this season...

Are you sure you want to be a nightclub comic?

 

[SSOG]

Mine may not be the norm but, here is how i would grab each rb if i was drafting for dynasty.I play in both ppr and non ppr so i will just rate them in general. 1. M.DREW (i really think he can get better, i also think he will continue to be a high volume TD guy, love him in all formats)2. AP (actually as good of a year he had last yr fantasy wise.....i really thought he could have done way better)3. CJ3 (i think he regresses some yardage wise but i still see over 2000 total for him)4. J.STEWERT (yeah i know this is high, but he is one of the few rb's that could post AP type of #'s, he is like a young SJax)5. R.RICE (young 23 versatile rb who can do it all. To be honest while i like him this much (youth/talent) i expect the #'s to go down alittle)6. DEANGELO (i can see alot disagreement here but i think he is another awesome talented rb who could have his own gig next yr)7. F.GORE (only rated him lower than DWILL cause of his workload and he might drop in value sooner than DWILL)8. J.CHARLES (if push came to shove i would draft Charles here over SJax and other rb's. Unless my eyes was playing games on me last yr i think this about right)9. S.JAX (maybe low for alot of guys, but in a startup this is about where i would start considering him.)10. MENDENHALL (good situation and could be looking at a 3down rb here. Likes his upside)11. M.TURNER (not the biggest fan here, but at this point he will be a value pick for someone, just not me)12. BEANIE WELLS (i think he can put it all together, just seems something wasnt clicking last yr for him, He is a good talent though)13. R.MATTHEWS (gut call here. I just see this fella landing in such a plum situation hou/sd and exceling at the next level)14. S.GREENE (should be a yardage monster next year with TJones gone. I dont like him as much talent wise but he has a awesome team situation)15. FELIX JONES (maybe a bit high considering the 3 headed monster but he showed late last season why he should be considered this high)16. C.BENSON (is he taking the TJones path?? He is a good bet to produce some big numbers if he is back with Cincy)17. CJ SPILLER (at this point i would take a shot with him over whats left to choose from)19. PIEERE THOMAS (sleeper rb of the yr.....thats all im going to say)20. L.McCOY (in a high powered O, he has some tools although he will be in a nice timeshare)21. M.FORTE (alittle low here and very good value for someone. He should bounce back as he can do better than what he showed...just alittle better)22. K.MORENO (should improve on what was a pretty much lackluster rookie season.)23. R.GRANT (pretty consistent but there looking to bring someone more explosive in)24. D.BROWN (very high upside should he work harder to improve)25. T.GERHART (cant even believe ME of all people saying this but i think this dude will break the racial lines and be a young BETTIS STUD like rb)26. A.BRADSHAW (Jacobs is regressing, if not for injury AB would have already taken over....he has some nice potential here)27. J.ADDAI (he still is the current starter in this high powered O and Peyton trusts him)28. J.BEST (could definitely be moved up with a great situation, not all these smallish backs will take CJ3/Charles/Rice path some will be gimmick/COP rb's)(yucky tier)29a. R.BUSH (he looked better during there playoff stretch and wether back with NO or not he holds nice value here)29b. D.McFADDEN (Young and a chance to improve...although he havent looked to good thus far but i would take a gamble here)30. M.HARDESTY (again situation could push him much higher)31. M.LYNCH (similar to McFADDEN, young and with a chance to improve and if nothing else he sits behind a older rb so his wait isnt long)32. R.BROWN (hard to get excited about a rb thats coming off these acl's but when healthy Ronnie is elite but his window is closing fast!)33. J.DWYER (Slipped alittle but really would you want any of those other rb's under him before him??)34. J.HARRISON (before last yr i always wondered why the wouldnt run him more, he always seem to get like 10 yrds a pop when he touched the ball)35. B.JACOBS (i personally feel he is regressing but he is that starter for now)36. MBIII (honeslty whats the deal with MBIII, its like he's the invisible man, Felix and Choice both look better, will he remain with the boys?)37. T.CHOICE (kinda hard to rank him under MBIII but it is what it is, he is young and should an injury or two happen you have a stud in your hands)38. M.BUSH (to me is the best back on the raiders...not sure whats going on here but dude can flat all play)39. F.JACKSON (he got some age but not mileage on him but he is a good value rb)40. _______fillin 40 w/ Portis/Westy/Caddy/KSmith/LeonW/Tate/Hightowner/Maroney/Slaton or any of them you like.Just a personal preference list, so dont bite my head off, i know i might have some of your guys lower than you.

I'm definitely buying what you're selling. Just off the top of my head, here's how I'd rank them:1. MJD2. ADP3. CJ34. Ray Rice5. JStew6. Charles7. Frank Gore8. DeAngelo9. SJax10. Beanie Wells11. Rashard Mendenhall12. Knowshon Moreno13. Shonn Greene14. Michael Turner15. Matt Forte16. Marshawn Lynch17. Ryan Grant18. Cedric Benson19. Pierre Thomas20. Donald Brown21. Felix Jones22. Darren McFadden23. Joseph Addai24. LeSean McCoy25. Marion Barber26. James Harrison27. Tashard Choice28. Ahmad Bradshaw29. Brandon Jacobs30. Steve SlatonNote: Based on recent experience, I've dramatically increased the amount I'm punishing older RBs by. I actually think that, over the next 2 seasons, Frank Gore will outperform at least one of the "Big 4", possibly two of them... but after that, he'll be 29 years old and his value will be completely shot. Guys like Gore, SJax, DWill, Turner, Grant, Benson, etc. have now officially become expiring assets. Adjust them upward if you are in the middle of a championship window.I was a little bit unsure on how much to downgrade 26 year old RBs (who I don't view as expiring assets, but I view as a year away from becoming expiring assets), but then I realized that there isn't a single RB in my top 30 who is going to be 26 to start the season. Which is kind of bizarre. 6 of my top 30 RBs will be 25 at the start of the season. 8 of my top 30 will be 27. 0 of my top 30 will be 26. 1984 apparently wasn't a very good year for future-NFL-RB-births, I guess.

Way overreacting to the combine on Dwyer.My only problem with Jstew that high is the chance that Carolina re-signs Williams.

What makes you believe there's a chance that Carolina re-signs Williams? Unless Stewart gets seriously injured, I'm not sure I see it... and if Stewart gets seriously injured, then there are reasons to drop his value beyond just "Carolina re-signed DWill".

 

[The Real Hipster Doofus]

Mine may not be the norm but, here is how i would grab each rb if i was drafting for dynasty.

I play in both ppr and non ppr so i will just rate them in general.

1. M.DREW (i really think he can get better, i also think he will continue to be a high volume TD guy, love him in all formats)

2. AP (actually as good of a year he had last yr fantasy wise.....i really thought he could have done way better)

3. CJ3 (i think he regresses some yardage wise but i still see over 2000 total for him) Nothing wrong with the top 3 in any order IMO

4. J.STEWERT (yeah i know this is high, but he is one of the few rb's that could post AP type of #'s, he is like a young SJax) On pure talent he belongs in the 1st tier but it may take a while until he gets a job all to his own

5. R.RICE (young 23 versatile rb who can do it all. To be honest while i like him this much (youth/talent) i expect the #'s to go down alittle)

6. DEANGELO (i can see alot disagreement here but i think he is another awesome talented rb who could have his own gig next yr) If he ends up on another team he could easily challenge for RB #1 again.

7. F.GORE (only rated him lower than DWILL cause of his workload and he might drop in value sooner than DWILL)

8. J.CHARLES (if push came to shove i would draft Charles here over SJax and other rb's. Unless my eyes was playing games on me last yr i think this about right)

9. S.JAX (maybe low for alot of guys, but in a startup this is about where i would start considering him.)

10. MENDENHALL (good situation and could be looking at a 3down rb here. Likes his upside) I agree he has the highest value of this tier due to talent and situation

11. M.TURNER (not the biggest fan here, but at this point he will be a value pick for someone, just not me) Think this is a little high for Turner

12. BEANIE WELLS (i think he can put it all together, just seems something wasnt clicking last yr for him, He is a good talent though)

13. R.MATTHEWS (gut call here. I just see this fella landing in such a plum situation hou/sd and exceling at the next level)

14. S.GREENE (should be a yardage monster next year with TJones gone. I dont like him as much talent wise but he has a awesome team situation)

15. FELIX JONES (maybe a bit high considering the 3 headed monster but he showed late last season why he should be considered this high)

16. C.BENSON (is he taking the TJones path?? He is a good bet to produce some big numbers if he is back with Cincy)

17. CJ SPILLER (at this point i would take a shot with him over whats left to choose from) To me Spiller will end up being a top 5 dynasty RB or somewhere much lower than here. No bigger boom or bust guy that I can think of

19. PIEERE THOMAS (sleeper rb of the yr.....thats all im going to say)

20. L.McCOY (in a high powered O, he has some tools although he will be in a nice timeshare)

21. M.FORTE (alittle low here and very good value for someone. He should bounce back as he can do better than what he showed...just alittle better) I like your rating of Forte more than others. He is an average talent IMO, and I bet he gets paired with another RB if not outright replaced soon.

22. K.MORENO (should improve on what was a pretty much lackluster rookie season.) Good situation but I have yet to see anything that shows me he is a special talent. A more fitting spot for me then some of the rankings I have seen in the early teens.

23. R.GRANT (pretty consistent but there looking to bring someone more explosive in)

24. D.BROWN (very high upside should he work harder to improve)

25. T.GERHART (cant even believe ME of all people saying this but i think this dude will break the racial lines and be a young BETTIS STUD like rb) Hard for me to agree with this until I see where the lands. On the right team, I could totally see this happening.

26. A.BRADSHAW (Jacobs is regressing, if not for injury AB would have already taken over....he has some nice potential here)

27. J.ADDAI (he still is the current starter in this high powered O and Peyton trusts him)

28. J.BEST (could definitely be moved up with a great situation, not all these smallish backs will take CJ3/Charles/Rice path some will be gimmick/COP rb's)

(yucky tier)

29a. R.BUSH (he looked better during there playoff stretch and wether back with NO or not he holds nice value here)

29b. D.McFADDEN (Young and a chance to improve...although he havent looked to good thus far but i would take a gamble here)

30. M.HARDESTY (again situation could push him much higher)

31. M.LYNCH (similar to McFADDEN, young and with a chance to improve and if nothing else he sits behind a older rb so his wait isnt long) I agree this is about the right spot for him, but if he gets things straightened out his talent blows away the others in this tier other than Ronnie IMO

32. R.BROWN (hard to get excited about a rb thats coming off these acl's but when healthy Ronnie is elite but his window is closing fast!)

33. J.DWYER (Slipped alittle but really would you want any of those other rb's under him before him??)

34. J.HARRISON (before last yr i always wondered why the wouldnt run him more, he always seem to get like 10 yrds a pop when he touched the ball)

35. B.JACOBS (i personally feel he is regressing but he is that starter for now)

36. MBIII (honeslty whats the deal with MBIII, its like he's the invisible man, Felix and Choice both look better, will he remain with the boys?) Seems pretty low to me even with the crowded backfield

37. T.CHOICE (kinda hard to rank him under MBIII but it is what it is, he is young and should an injury or two happen you have a stud in your hands)

38. M.BUSH (to me is the best back on the raiders...not sure whats going on here but dude can flat all play)

39. F.JACKSON (he got some age but not mileage on him but he is a good value rb)

40. _______

fillin 40 w/ Portis/Westy/Caddy/KSmith/LeonW/Tate/Hightowner/Maroney/Slaton or any of them you like.

Just a personal preference list, so dont bite my head off, i know i might have some of your guys lower than you.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

Way overreacting to the combine on Dwyer.My only problem with Jstew that high is the chance that Carolina re-signs Williams.

What makes you believe there's a chance that Carolina re-signs Williams? Unless Stewart gets seriously injured, I'm not sure I see it... and if Stewart gets seriously injured, then there are reasons to drop his value beyond just "Carolina re-signed DWill".

Why would Carolina invest another first round pick in an RB after taking DeAngelo in the first? Why would they not entertain trade offers for DeAngelo in the last year of his contract? Carolina LIKES having Stewart and Williams, and they may well take a run at having both of them. It is far from a foregone conclusion that they will not attempt to re-sign him.

 

[jackdubl]

Mine may not be the norm but, here is how i would grab each rb if i was drafting for dynasty.I play in both ppr and non ppr so i will just rate them

how you rank Shonne Greene sooo low is beyond me. I'd go something like this:1. Rice2. MJD3. Greene4. <Chargers starting RB> - Ryan Matthews *will* be the Chargers starting RB,imo.5. D'Angelo Williams6. Benson7. J. Charles - recs will go thru the roof with Oc Charlie Weiss 8. Sjax9. Gore10. Mendenhall11.ADP12. Chris Johnson13. J. Stewart14. Michael Bush15. Wells16. Turner17. Fred Jackson Fred Jackson is under appreciated....Gore,Sjax, Benson will be top 10 guys once again..ADP slips ( badly, IMO) because he's a fumbling machine and went 9 weeks without a 100 yard game last season WITH Favre and his 33/7 td/int performance at QB.but the biggest caveat with ADP is that his ypc avg has consistently and steadily dropped since turning pro, from 5.6 in '07, to 4.8 in '08, to a ho-hum 4.4 in '09.at this rate, he'll clip somewhere between 3.9 and 4.0 in '10. Forget about J. Stewart taking over the starting role for D. Williams...he's a great compliment to Williams, but won't start over him unless D. Will is hurt or traded.Rice, MJD, Greene could go 1-3 ,in any order.but the top 3,IMO, will be these guys..pick your poison.J. Charles is going to see a truckload of passes coming his way this season with Weiss' `quick dump-offs to the RB `type of offense..Norv Turner can take a truck driver and turn him into a pro bowl RB..so the Chargers RB, IMO, will be a top 5 player at his position this season...

Tanner's been doing this same crazy-talk in several threads. I'd like to see him put his draft where his mouth is next season and then see how he finishes. It'd be fun to be in that draft room when Tanner takes Greene or Charles ahead of ADP or CJ3.

 

[BespokeJort]

Mine may not be the norm but, here is how i would grab each rb if i was drafting for dynasty.I play in both ppr and non ppr so i will just rate them in general. 1. M.DREW (i really think he can get better, i also think he will continue to be a high volume TD guy, love him in all formats)2. AP (actually as good of a year he had last yr fantasy wise.....i really thought he could have done way better)3. CJ3 (i think he regresses some yardage wise but i still see over 2000 total for him)4. J.STEWERT (yeah i know this is high, but he is one of the few rb's that could post AP type of #'s, he is like a young SJax)5. R.RICE (young 23 versatile rb who can do it all. To be honest while i like him this much (youth/talent) i expect the #'s to go down alittle)6. DEANGELO (i can see alot disagreement here but i think he is another awesome talented rb who could have his own gig next yr)7. F.GORE (only rated him lower than DWILL cause of his workload and he might drop in value sooner than DWILL)8. J.CHARLES (if push came to shove i would draft Charles here over SJax and other rb's. Unless my eyes was playing games on me last yr i think this about right)9. S.JAX (maybe low for alot of guys, but in a startup this is about where i would start considering him.)10. MENDENHALL (good situation and could be looking at a 3down rb here. Likes his upside)11. M.TURNER (not the biggest fan here, but at this point he will be a value pick for someone, just not me)12. BEANIE WELLS (i think he can put it all together, just seems something wasnt clicking last yr for him, He is a good talent though)13. R.MATTHEWS (gut call here. I just see this fella landing in such a plum situation hou/sd and exceling at the next level)14. S.GREENE (should be a yardage monster next year with TJones gone. I dont like him as much talent wise but he has a awesome team situation)15. FELIX JONES (maybe a bit high considering the 3 headed monster but he showed late last season why he should be considered this high)16. C.BENSON (is he taking the TJones path?? He is a good bet to produce some big numbers if he is back with Cincy)17. CJ SPILLER (at this point i would take a shot with him over whats left to choose from)19. PIEERE THOMAS (sleeper rb of the yr.....thats all im going to say)20. L.McCOY (in a high powered O, he has some tools although he will be in a nice timeshare)21. M.FORTE (alittle low here and very good value for someone. He should bounce back as he can do better than what he showed...just alittle better)22. K.MORENO (should improve on what was a pretty much lackluster rookie season.)23. R.GRANT (pretty consistent but there looking to bring someone more explosive in)24. D.BROWN (very high upside should he work harder to improve)25. T.GERHART (cant even believe ME of all people saying this but i think this dude will break the racial lines and be a young BETTIS STUD like rb)26. A.BRADSHAW (Jacobs is regressing, if not for injury AB would have already taken over....he has some nice potential here)27. J.ADDAI (he still is the current starter in this high powered O and Peyton trusts him)28. J.BEST (could definitely be moved up with a great situation, not all these smallish backs will take CJ3/Charles/Rice path some will be gimmick/COP rb's)(yucky tier)29a. R.BUSH (he looked better during there playoff stretch and wether back with NO or not he holds nice value here)29b. D.McFADDEN (Young and a chance to improve...although he havent looked to good thus far but i would take a gamble here)30. M.HARDESTY (again situation could push him much higher)31. M.LYNCH (similar to McFADDEN, young and with a chance to improve and if nothing else he sits behind a older rb so his wait isnt long)32. R.BROWN (hard to get excited about a rb thats coming off these acl's but when healthy Ronnie is elite but his window is closing fast!)33. J.DWYER (Slipped alittle but really would you want any of those other rb's under him before him??)34. J.HARRISON (before last yr i always wondered why the wouldnt run him more, he always seem to get like 10 yrds a pop when he touched the ball)35. B.JACOBS (i personally feel he is regressing but he is that starter for now)36. MBIII (honeslty whats the deal with MBIII, its like he's the invisible man, Felix and Choice both look better, will he remain with the boys?)37. T.CHOICE (kinda hard to rank him under MBIII but it is what it is, he is young and should an injury or two happen you have a stud in your hands)38. M.BUSH (to me is the best back on the raiders...not sure whats going on here but dude can flat all play)39. F.JACKSON (he got some age but not mileage on him but he is a good value rb)40. _______fillin 40 w/ Portis/Westy/Caddy/KSmith/LeonW/Tate/Hightowner/Maroney/Slaton or any of them you like.Just a personal preference list, so dont bite my head off, i know i might have some of your guys lower than you.

I'm definitely buying what you're selling. Just off the top of my head, here's how I'd rank them:1. MJD2. ADP3. CJ34. Ray Rice5. JStew6. Charles7. Frank Gore8. DeAngelo9. SJax10. Beanie Wells11. Rashard Mendenhall12. Knowshon Moreno13. Shonn Greene14. Michael Turner15. Matt Forte16. Marshawn Lynch17. Ryan Grant18. Cedric Benson19. Pierre Thomas20. Donald Brown21. Felix Jones22. Darren McFadden23. Joseph Addai24. LeSean McCoy25. Marion Barber26. James Harrison27. Tashard Choice28. Ahmad Bradshaw29. Brandon Jacobs30. Steve SlatonNote: Based on recent experience, I've dramatically increased the amount I'm punishing older RBs by. I actually think that, over the next 2 seasons, Frank Gore will outperform at least one of the "Big 4", possibly two of them... but after that, he'll be 29 years old and his value will be completely shot. Guys like Gore, SJax, DWill, Turner, Grant, Benson, etc. have now officially become expiring assets. Adjust them upward if you are in the middle of a championship window.I was a little bit unsure on how much to downgrade 26 year old RBs (who I don't view as expiring assets, but I view as a year away from becoming expiring assets), but then I realized that there isn't a single RB in my top 30 who is going to be 26 to start the season. Which is kind of bizarre. 6 of my top 30 RBs will be 25 at the start of the season. 8 of my top 30 will be 27. 0 of my top 30 will be 26. 1984 apparently wasn't a very good year for future-NFL-RB-births, I guess.

Way overreacting to the combine on Dwyer.My only problem with Jstew that high is the chance that Carolina re-signs Williams.

What makes you believe there's a chance that Carolina re-signs Williams? Unless Stewart gets seriously injured, I'm not sure I see it... and if Stewart gets seriously injured, then there are reasons to drop his value beyond just "Carolina re-signed DWill".

No Ronnie? I know the injuries are worrisome but IMO he's still somewhere in the Pierre-Barber tier

 

[Anthony Borbely]

Way overreacting to the combine on Dwyer.My only problem with Jstew that high is the chance that Carolina re-signs Williams.

What makes you believe there's a chance that Carolina re-signs Williams? Unless Stewart gets seriously injured, I'm not sure I see it... and if Stewart gets seriously injured, then there are reasons to drop his value beyond just "Carolina re-signed DWill".

Why would Carolina invest another first round pick in an RB after taking DeAngelo in the first? Why would they not entertain trade offers for DeAngelo in the last year of his contract? Carolina LIKES having Stewart and Williams, and they may well take a run at having both of them. It is far from a foregone conclusion that they will not attempt to re-sign him.

I think the contract will be the reason Williams leaves. It's no guarantee, but I don't think they will pay Williams if they don't have to. Of course, a lot depends on the new CBA (salary sap, rookie cap, etc.).

 

[thriftyrocker]

Tanner's been doing this same crazy-talk in several threads. I'd like to see him put his draft where his mouth is next season and then see how he finishes. It'd be fun to be in that draft room when Tanner takes Greene or Charles ahead of ADP or CJ3.

I think the major problem is he has ADP and CJ3 so low. I have no problem putting Greene ahead of older guys like DeAngelo, SJax, and Gore and I would prefer him to some of the younger guys like Charles and Mendenhall. I would probably have Greene around 7. He is easily a top 10 dynasty RB for me. The only guys definitely ahead of him are CJ, ADP, Rice, MJD, and Stewart.

 

[Kit Fisto]

Tanner's been doing this same crazy-talk in several threads. I'd like to see him put his draft where his mouth is next season and then see how he finishes. It'd be fun to be in that draft room when Tanner takes Greene or Charles ahead of ADP or CJ3.

I think the major problem is he has ADP and CJ3 so low. I have no problem putting Greene ahead of older guys like DeAngelo, SJax, and Gore and I would prefer him to some of the younger guys like Charles and Mendenhall. I would probably have Greene around 7. He is easily a top 10 dynasty RB for me. The only guys definitely ahead of him are CJ, ADP, Rice, MJD, and Stewart.

Before someone points it out, I do realize you have to gamble to hit on guys like this. But can we see please Greene play in more than 2 or 3 games before we vault him ahead of PROVEN players like DeAngelo and SJax?I mean, we do this every year; some RB that lit it up the year before falls back down to earth. Derrick Ward most immediately comes to mind. This happens EVERY SINGLE YEAR. This is why I'm not on the the Shonn Greene, Jamaal Charles, Jerome Harrison bandwagons.These three are just ranked waaaay too high for my liking. But to each their own...

 

[SSOG]

Why would Carolina invest another first round pick in an RB after taking DeAngelo in the first? Why would they not entertain trade offers for DeAngelo in the last year of his contract? Carolina LIKES having Stewart and Williams, and they may well take a run at having both of them. It is far from a foregone conclusion that they will not attempt to re-sign him.

I guess I can see where you're coming from, but Carolina didn't really know what they had in DeAngelo when they drafted Stewart, and it's possible that they just loved his talent so much that they couldn't possibly pass on him (in which case, why keep around the guy standing in front of the guy whose talent they loved that much?). Carolina likes having both DeAngelo and Stewart while they're both on their affordable rookie contracts... let's see how much they like having DeAngelo and Stewart once they have to pony up big bucks for an RB in a timeshare.

Tanner's been doing this same crazy-talk in several threads. I'd like to see him put his draft where his mouth is next season and then see how he finishes. It'd be fun to be in that draft room when Tanner takes Greene or Charles ahead of ADP or CJ3.

Forget Greene or Charles... I'd love to see him take CEDRIC BENSON over ADP or CJ3. For all his talk of ADP's "mediocre" 4.4 ypc last season, he seems to gloss over the fact that Benson only averaged 4.2 ypc, or that Benson's career ypc is 3.9, or that Benson is essentially 3 years older than either ADP or CJ, or that last year Benson ranked 16th in total points (120 points behind Peterson) and 12th in points per game (5 ppg behind Peterson).

No Ronnie? I know the injuries are worrisome but IMO he's still somewhere in the Pierre-Barber tier

Ronnie was partly oversight, but I wouldn't put him in the Pierre/Barber tier even if I'd remembered him. He's going to be 28 (and an "old" 28, at that) to start the season, and he'll be coming off his second major season-ending injury in the last 3 years. There's a major risk of him coming back slow, maybe like his 2008 season (1150 YFS, 10 TDs). If he does, then where does that leave you- with a 29 year old injury prone RB2. I could see maybe putting him at the back of that tier if you've got major championship aspirations over the next 2 years, but otherwise he's just a bit too much risk without much of a window for payoff. For that price, give me Addai.

 

[thriftyrocker]

I mean, we do this every year; some RB that lit it up the year before falls back down to earth. Derrick Ward most immediately comes to mind. This happens EVERY SINGLE YEAR. This is why I'm not on the the Shonn Greene, Jamaal Charles, James Harrison bandwagons.

Also what happens every single year is owners think 27 or 28 year old RBs have 3 good years left, and then one bad break and all the value is gone. DeAngelo didn't help many owners last year. He'll be 27 when the season starts this year, and he'll be 28 next year. His value is going to drop exponentially, and one bad break will make him Clinton Portis. Portis is only 28 and has almost no dynasty value.Greene is unproven but 1) the NYJs present an ideal opportunity as a run first offense with a great defense and 2) there's reason to believe the Jets are both good at evaluating RB and targeted Greene specifically. I am more hesitant on Charles even though he is more proven (what will Weis do to the offense; now that the audition period is over, will they limit his touches to keep him fresh). I wouldn't recommend Greene just to pick a young RB who had one good game, I would recommend Greene because his opportunity is pretty golden.Derrick Ward is a bad example because he went from a great situation to a bad situation. The fact that he was already 28/29 when that happened sapped any potential future value.

 

[Anthony Borbely]

I mean, we do this every year; some RB that lit it up the year before falls back down to earth. Derrick Ward most immediately comes to mind. This happens EVERY SINGLE YEAR. This is why I'm not on the the Shonn Greene, Jamaal Charles, James Harrison bandwagons.

Also what happens every single year is owners think 27 or 28 year old RBs have 3 good years left, and then one bad break and all the value is gone. DeAngelo didn't help many owners last year. He'll be 27 when the season starts this year, and he'll be 28 next year. His value is going to drop exponentially, and one bad break will make him Clinton Portis. Portis is only 28 and has almost no dynasty value.Greene is unproven but 1) the NYJs present an ideal opportunity as a run first offense with a great defense and 2) there's reason to believe the Jets are both good at evaluating RB and targeted Greene specifically. I am more hesitant on Charles even though he is more proven (what will Weis do to the offense; now that the audition period is over, will they limit his touches to keep him fresh). I wouldn't recommend Greene just to pick a young RB who had one good game, I would recommend Greene because his opportunity is pretty golden.Derrick Ward is a bad example because he went from a great situation to a bad situation. The fact that he was already 28/29 when that happened sapped any potential future value.

I think the Portis and D Will comparison amounts to apples and oranges. Portis has a much bigger career workload (over 2100 career carries) and in 4 of the 5 seasons prior to last year, Portis had over 325 carries. Williams has fewer than 800 career carries and the only 2 times he has been over 200 was 274 2 years ago and 216 last year. Portis showed signs of decline prior to last year and Williams isn't even close in my opinion. The workload between them is massive. I'm not saying Williams won't lose value in the next couple of years because he will...but he and Portis are apples and oranges because of the workloads they have had.

 

[SSOG]

I think the Portis and D Will comparison amounts to apples and oranges. Portis has a much bigger career workload (over 2100 career carries) and in 4 of the 5 seasons prior to last year, Portis had over 325 carries. Williams has fewer than 800 career carries and the only 2 times he has been over 200 was 274 2 years ago and 216 last year. Portis showed signs of decline prior to last year and Williams isn't even close in my opinion. The workload between them is massive. I'm not saying Williams won't lose value in the next couple of years because he will...but he and Portis are apples and oranges because of the workloads they have had.

Right. Portis (done at 28) is the exception, not the rule. His knees are shot. Using him as an example of what might happen to other RBs is like using Torry Holt as an example of what might happen to aging WRs (done at 33, and not coincidentally, his knees are shot, too). Sure, Portis is done at 28 just like Holt is done at 33. On the other hand, Thomas Jones just finished as RB6 at age 31, and Joey Galloway was WR21 at age 36. Those two aren't the norm, either. Portis and Holt are as much the exception as Jones and Galloway.If given the choice between a 27 year old who's been a stud for several years and shows no sign of slowing or a 24 year old who has never finished within the top 50 in his entire career, I'll take the 27 year old.

 

[thriftyrocker]

QUOTE (Anthony Borbely @ Mar 4 2010, 02:13 PM) *I think the Portis and D Will comparison amounts to apples and oranges. Portis has a much bigger career workload

Right. Portis (done at 28) is the exception, not the rule.

LT's last effective year was at 28.Westbrook's decline started at 28.Jacobs' value went through the floor at 28.Ronnie's value went through the floor at 28.Parker's value went through the floor at 28.SSOG himself argues age over mileage for RB, doesn't he?

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

Why would Carolina invest another first round pick in an RB after taking DeAngelo in the first? Why would they not entertain trade offers for DeAngelo in the last year of his contract? Carolina LIKES having Stewart and Williams, and they may well take a run at having both of them. It is far from a foregone conclusion that they will not attempt to re-sign him.

I guess I can see where you're coming from, but Carolina didn't really know what they had in DeAngelo when they drafted Stewart, and it's possible that they just loved his talent so much that they couldn't possibly pass on him (in which case, why keep around the guy standing in front of the guy whose talent they loved that much?). Carolina likes having both DeAngelo and Stewart while they're both on their affordable rookie contracts... let's see how much they like having DeAngelo and Stewart once they have to pony up big bucks for an RB in a timeshare.

They would only have to pay DeAngelo to keep both thru 2012 - Stewart is the one with more wear overall, turf toe and achilles surgery already, and long injury history from college. If they think having both keeps the championship window open, then they only have to break the bank for one, and let Stewart walk after his rookie deal is up. Tony also brings up a great point that we have no idea how the new CBA will handle free agency, or if 2011 will fall through the cracks like 2010 has. My main point is that having Stewart ranked that high for initial draft rankings means you build your team around a guy who is a part-time back for this year, and maybe longer.

 

[SSOG]

QUOTE (Anthony Borbely @ Mar 4 2010, 02:13 PM) *I think the Portis and D Will comparison amounts to apples and oranges. Portis has a much bigger career workload

Right. Portis (done at 28) is the exception, not the rule.

LT's last effective year was at 28.Westbrook's decline started at 28.Jacobs' value went through the floor at 28.Ronnie's value went through the floor at 28.Parker's value went through the floor at 28.SSOG himself argues age over mileage for RB, doesn't he?

LT was RB1 at age 28, RB7 at age 29, and was still a high-end RB2 on a per-game basis at age 30. Brian Westbrook was RB2 at 28 and was RB3 in points per game at age 29. These aren't exactly shining examples of RBs falling after the cliff at age 28 like Portis did. At age 28, Tomlinson and Westbrook each still had two UBERSTUD seasons left in the tank.As for the rest of it, I don't get what you're debating. Are you debating that most NFL RBs are done at age 28? Or are you debating that the perceived value of most NFL RBs is shot at age 28? Because I can agree with the second point, but as for the first point, I still maintain that Portis is the exception, not the rule. RBs as a whole don't fall off the cliff at age 28, even if there's the rare exception that does.You're right that I do argue age over mileage, but saying that "RBs fall off with age" is remarkably different than saying "RBs fall off at age 28". Good RBs with a track record of success can be counted on to produce at age 28 and 29 still.

 

[The Real Hipster Doofus]

So how much of an impact does the signing of Chester Taylor by the Bears have on Forte's value?

 

[mozzy84]

Mine may not be the norm but, here is how i would grab each rb if i was drafting for dynasty.I play in both ppr and non ppr so i will just rate them

how you rank Shonne Greene sooo low is beyond me. I'd go something like this:1. Rice2. MJD3. Greene4. <Chargers starting RB> - Ryan Matthews *will* be the Chargers starting RB,imo.5. D'Angelo Williams6. Benson7. J. Charles - recs will go thru the roof with Oc Charlie Weiss 8. Sjax9. Gore10. Mendenhall11.ADP12. Chris Johnson13. J. Stewart14. Michael Bush15. Wells16. Turner17. Fred Jackson Fred Jackson is under appreciated....Gore,Sjax, Benson will be top 10 guys once again..ADP slips ( badly, IMO) because he's a fumbling machine and went 9 weeks without a 100 yard game last season WITH Favre and his 33/7 td/int performance at QB.but the biggest caveat with ADP is that his ypc avg has consistently and steadily dropped since turning pro, from 5.6 in '07, to 4.8 in '08, to a ho-hum 4.4 in '09.at this rate, he'll clip somewhere between 3.9 and 4.0 in '10. Forget about J. Stewart taking over the starting role for D. Williams...he's a great compliment to Williams, but won't start over him unless D. Will is hurt or traded.Rice, MJD, Greene could go 1-3 ,in any order.but the top 3,IMO, will be these guys..pick your poison.J. Charles is going to see a truckload of passes coming his way this season with Weiss' `quick dump-offs to the RB `type of offense..Norv Turner can take a truck driver and turn him into a pro bowl RB..so the Chargers RB, IMO, will be a top 5 player at his position this season...

 

[Anthony Borbely]

So how much of an impact does the signing of Chester Taylor by the Bears have on Forte's value?

I think it puts a huge dent in Forte's value. I don't see how it can't to be honest. Forte is not the most talented RB around and now he has to share carries for a couple of years.

 

[The Real Hipster Doofus]

So how much of an impact does the signing of Chester Taylor by the Bears have on Forte's value?

I think it puts a huge dent in Forte's value. I don't see how it can't to be honest. Forte is not the most talented RB around and now he has to share carries for a couple of years.

I agree, although I haven't been that high on Forte from the beginning. Glad I was able to move him before this happened.

 

[thriftyrocker]

Are you debating that most NFL RBs are done at age 28? Or are you debating that the perceived value of most NFL RBs is shot at age 28? Because I can agree with the second point, but as for the first point,

I am arguing most NFL RBs are done after age 28. As a side effect, this recent history of failed 29 year old backs greatly affects the exit value of 27 and 28 year old RB. Because of the greater chance of a cliff at 29 and the corresponding low exit value, I would rather take on the risk/reward of Shonn Greene than the risk/reward of DeAngelo, Gore, or SJax.The risk of Greene not producing stats for the NYJ is pretty small. He will be given a lot of carries (I would take the over on 300). Even if he is a mediocre talent like Rudi Johnson (which I don't think he is), he will accumulate stats and most likely retain his job as long as DeAngelo is a starter in the NFL. DeAngelo's value is more volatile because his window is so small. There is good chance his skills will diminish quickly after the 2011 season. There is a good chance he will continue to split carries with an equally talented back during the 2010 season, possibly more evenly than 2008 and 2009.Thomas Jones is more of an exception than Clinton Portis. Portis might have fallen apart due to excessive wear and bad luck injuries. But excessive wear and bad luck injures are part and parcel of being an NFL RB. Is Larry Johnson worn down? Is Rudi Johnson worn down? Is Brandon Jacobs ever going to retain his 07/08 form? Is FWP not as F as he was at 27? Was LT's stat accumulation at 28 and 29 due to talent or due to being the short yardage back of a good offense? Westbrook may have produced at age 29 when he played, but he missed a lot of games due to the massive accumulation of injuries he has gone through (pretty eerily similar to Portis, they stopped playing last year due to concussion not knees and ankles). What about Shaun Alexander? Even a 26 year old can look old and a shadow of their former self due to game wear, like Marion Barber. I think there's a very high chance that at two of Gore, SJax, Turner, and DeAngelo will have near 0 trade value next year at this time. Not to mention lesser talents approaching the same age - Grant and Benson. If you can name a lot of RBs who had success both at 24-26 and at 29-31, I would like to know. Most I can think of who had success at 29-31 were backups earlier in their career, Priest Holmes and even TJ. You can tout LT and Marshall Faulk if you want, but they are #2 and #4 in all time RB TDs, and none of the 27 and 28 year old current players are near that stratosphere.

 

[SSOG]

1. I am arguing most NFL RBs are done after age 28. As a side effect, this recent history of failed 29 year old backs greatly affects the exit value of 27 and 28 year old RB. Because of the greater chance of a cliff at 29 and the corresponding low exit value, I would rather take on the risk/reward of Shonn Greene than the risk/reward of DeAngelo, Gore, or SJax.2. The risk of Greene not producing stats for the NYJ is pretty small. He will be given a lot of carries (I would take the over on 300). Even if he is a mediocre talent like Rudi Johnson (which I don't think he is), he will accumulate stats and most likely retain his job as long as DeAngelo is a starter in the NFL. 3. DeAngelo's value is more volatile because his window is so small. There is good chance his skills will diminish quickly after the 2011 season. There is a good chance he will continue to split carries with an equally talented back during the 2010 season, possibly more evenly than 2008 and 2009.4. Thomas Jones is more of an exception than Clinton Portis. Portis might have fallen apart due to excessive wear and bad luck injuries. But excessive wear and bad luck injures are part and parcel of being an NFL RB. 5. Is Larry Johnson worn down? Is Rudi Johnson worn down? Is Brandon Jacobs ever going to retain his 07/08 form? Is FWP not as F as he was at 27? Was LT's stat accumulation at 28 and 29 due to talent or due to being the short yardage back of a good offense? Westbrook may have produced at age 29 when he played, but he missed a lot of games due to the massive accumulation of injuries he has gone through (pretty eerily similar to Portis, they stopped playing last year due to concussion not knees and ankles). What about Shaun Alexander? Even a 26 year old can look old and a shadow of their former self due to game wear, like Marion Barber. 6. I think there's a very high chance that at two of Gore, SJax, Turner, and DeAngelo will have near 0 trade value next year at this time. Not to mention lesser talents approaching the same age - Grant and Benson. 7. If you can name a lot of RBs who had success both at 24-26 and at 29-31, I would like to know. Most I can think of who had success at 29-31 were backups earlier in their career, Priest Holmes and even TJ. You can tout LT and Marshall Faulk if you want, but they are #2 and #4 in all time RB TDs, and none of the 27 and 28 year old current players are near that stratosphere.

I've numbered your post for easy responding.1. I agree that there is a low exit value on older RBs. I strongly, strongly, strongly disagree with your first sentence, though. Over the past decade, there have been 48 top-24 finishes by RBs aged 29 or older. That's almost 5 a year. And we aren't just talking about situations where a 29 year old finishes as the 22nd best fantasy back, either- 23 of those 48 finishes have been top-12 finishes, including multiple #1 and #2 overall finishes. That's at least 1 top-12 finish every single year of the past decade, and an average of more than 2 per year. After I respond to the rest of your post, I'll get into a breakdown showing just how "done" those RBs older than 28 really are.2. Much the same thing was said about Forte, or Slaton. Heck, the same thing was said about Knowshon Moreno, a high first round draft pick dropped into the best rushing situation in the league and only competing against has-beens or never-weres.3. There's actually a poor chance that DeAngelo's skills disappear after 2011, and even if they diminish, he has skills to spare. He can face some diminishment and still remain a strong fantasy asset. Even if DeAngelo splits more evenly with Stewart... the offense can support it. Both RBs have been fantasy starter-caliber RBs for two consecutive seasons now. If DeAngelo splits more evenly with Stewart, then he might finish as RB6 instead of RB2.4. Again, I'll post a list of 29+ year old RBs who have been strong fantasy assets to show that Portis is far and away more of an exception than Jones.5. Larry Johnson is done, but I think that has a lot to do with posting 677 carries in 25 games (27 carries a game, or 433 per 16 games). I don't think that a steady 300-carry year-in and year-out workload wears an RB down as much as everyone seems to believe, but I *DO* think that that kind of over-the-top workload over a very short period WILL burn an RB out. Besides, LJ doesn't fit your "RBs fall off after 28" theory, because LJ fell off *AT* 28. Rudi Johnson is done, but Rudi Johnson was always a mediocre talent. Brandon Jacobs might not recapture his 07/08 form, but I don't think that's an age related decline, seeing as he was TWENTY SEVEN last year (if RBs decline at 27, then Shonn Greene only has two seasons left before he hits the wall). Willie Parker averaged 4.1 ypc at 27, so I wouldn't call him very "F" at age 27- like Rudi, he was always a mediocre talent, and his days were always numbered for reasons having nothing to do with age. Calling Tomlinson a compiler at age 28 is a complete joke- the dude was a 1st team AP All Pro, he averaged 4.7 ypc, and he finished 2nd in DYAR. He was definitely a compiler at age 29, though. Suggesting that Westbrook was injured at 29 because he was worn down is a total joke- Westbrook has never played 16 games in his entire career, and he averaged 2 missed games a year from ages 24 to 28 before missing... 2 games at age 29. And the Barber example is really confusing- your point is that RBs are done after age 28, so you gave an example of an RB that was done after age 25? You're using him to argue DeAngelo Williams, then saying it's the workload that did him in. Has DeAngelo Williams had such a high workload that you think he's going to go the way of Marion Barber? 6. Sure there is. There's also a high chance that a lot of YOUNG RBs will have no trade value next offseason. Look no further than Matt Forte, Steve Slaton, Knowshon Moreno, Marshawn Lynch, and Darren McFadden- and those are just examples from this past year! All five of those RBs were 23 or younger at the start of last season. *ALL* RBs carry a huge risk of losing all value practically overnight. For guys like Gore or SJax, that risk is tied to the fact that they're getting older. For Shonn Greene (just like for Slaton and McFadden), that risk is tied to the fact that he's never done anything to demonstrate that he's anything other than a mediocre RB or a replaceable asset. In most cases, I'd rather have a proven stud facing the small risk of "aging" far earlier than his peers than an unproven nobody facing the huge risk of turning out to be another replaceable talent.7. First off, arguing that few RBs have success at 24-26 *AND* 29-31 is fine, but using this as a point against Turner or Williams is madness. I think you're trying to say that the RBs who have the most success late are the RBs who were the least used early. You know, like the RBs who spent the first four years of their career as a backup- say behind, I don't know, LaDainian Tomlinson- before going on to earn a starting job- say for, I don't know, the Atlanta Falcons? Or maybe the guys like Tiki Barber who spend the early part of their career as the #1 guy in a timeshare with a highly-regarded former first round draft pick. Do you see the irony of the argument that you're making? I mean, by your argument, Williams and Turner are *EXACTLY* the kind of guys who we should expect to remain productive for years to come.Anyway, here's the list of RBs with a top 24 finish at age 29 over the past decade.Ricky Watters- RB8 @ 31Lamar Smith- RB11 @30, RB14 @ 31James Stewart- RB14 @ 29, RB22 @ 31Emmitt Smith- RB20 @ 31, RB22 @ 35Antowain Smith- RB9 @ 29, RB23 @ 30Garrison Hearst- RB12 @ 30, RB20 @ 31Charlie Garner- RB17 @ 29, RB9 @ 30Jerome Bettis- RB21 @ 29, RB18 @ 32Priest Holmes- RB1 @ 29, RB1 @ 30, RB12 @ 31Eddie George- RB10 @ 29, RB22 @ 30Marshall Faulk- RB14 @ 29, RB16 @ 30Curtis Martin- RB18 @ 29, RB18 @ 30, RB4 @ 31Stephen Davis- RB12 @ 29Moe Williams- RB13 @ 29Tiki Barber- RB2 @ 29, RB4 @ 30, RB7 @ 31Corey Dillon- RB7 @ 30, RB16 @ 31, RB19 @ 32Warrick Dunn- RB15 @ 29, RB12 @ 30, RB24 @ 31Michael Pittman- RB16 @ 29Mike Anderson- RB10 @ 32Ahman Greene- RB15 @ 29Fred Taylor- RB18 @ 30, RB18 @ 31Edgerrin James- RB10 @ 29Kenny Watson- RB19 @ 29Thomas Jones- RB22 @ 29, RB5 @ 30, RB6 @ 31LaDainian Tomlinson- RB7 @ 29, RB19 @ 30Brian Westbrook- RB10 @ 29Ricky Williams- RB7 @ 32Now, some of those guys were clearly of the "backups or part timers until very late in their career" variety, but a huge number of them were not. You say you want to know which RBs had success from ages 24-26 AND from ages 29-31, but I don't know how best to measure that. If you want to know which RBs on that list had at least 2 top-24 finishes from ages 24-26, then you get the following:Ricky WattersJames StewartEmmitt SmithAntowain SmithGarrison HearstJerome BettisEddie GeorgeMarshall FaulkCurtis MartinStephen DavisTiki BarberCorey DillonWarrick DunnMichael PittmanAhman GreenFred TaylorEdgerrin JamesLaDainian TomlinsonBrian WestbrookRicky WilliamsIf you're trying to say that getting a high workload early leads to poor results late, then here's a list of RBs from that list with at least 40 starts (two and a half full seasons worth) prior to age 27:Ricky WattersEmmitt SmithGarrison HearstJerome BettisEddie GeorgeMarshall FaulkCurtis MartinStephen DavisCorey DillonWarrick DunnAhman GreenFred TaylorEdgerrin JamesLaDainian TomlinsonRicky WilliamsAnd here's a list of RBs that made neither previous list:Lamar SmithCharlie GarnerPriest HolmesMike Anderson* (Anderson's a special case, because he was 27 his rookie year)Kenny WatsonThomas JonesObviously, the first two lists are way longer than the third list. If you want examples of RBs who were successful prior to age 26 and still successful after age 28, you don't need to look at Tomlinson or Faulk. In fact, you need to look no further than guys like Ricky Watters, Garrison Hearst, Eddie George, Curtis Martin, Corey Dillon, Warrick Dunn, or Fred Taylor. Are Gore/SJax/Turner/Williams as good as Tomlinson? No, but I'd say they're every bit as good as several names on that second list.Maybe if I get the time later, I'll use the Historical Data Dominator to compile a much longer list of guys who were studs prior to age 27 who remained studs after age 28. By and large, from what I've seen, guys like Portis and Alexander are far more exception than rule.

 

[WFR]

Let's bump this up!

LJ signs with WAS today.

Where might LT end up (NYJ or MN?)

Does Lynch get traded?

 

[Baron Samedi]

How do some of you guys rank Jacobs or Lynch ahead of Ryan Grant in any format? I guess people are down on him in general but he is the type of guy thats going to win teams championships next year. He is on a good offensive team with not much competition, I like that situation.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

How do some of you guys rank Jacobs or Lynch ahead of Ryan Grant in any format? I guess people are down on him in general but he is the type of guy thats going to win teams championships next year. He is on a good offensive team with not much competition, I like that situation.

That could change after the draft. RB is in play at 23, Mathews could be the pick if Houston passes on him at 20.

 

[SSOG]

How do some of you guys rank Jacobs or Lynch ahead of Ryan Grant in any format? I guess people are down on him in general but he is the type of guy thats going to win teams championships next year. He is on a good offensive team with not much competition, I like that situation.

Grant should be ahead of Jacobs in any situation, no question. Over Lynch, though? I can see arguments either way. Grant's a far more valuable asset next year (barring any unforseen changes like Lynch going to SD), but Grant is 27 while Lynch is 24. Lynch was terrible last year, but the fact remains that both Lynch and Grant entered the scene three years ago, and since then Lynch has averaged 10.76 points per game, while Grant has averaged... 11.30 points per game. Pretty close. Grant has scored 158, 162, and 211 points. Lynch scored 178 (in 13 games), 188 (in 15 games), and 75. Last year was really a nightmare season, but prior to that, Lynch had actually been very productive, and he still has 1st round pedigree.Of course, Lynch also has the major, major knucklehead factor working against him. And, again, things can change in an instant- GB might draft an RB and Buffalo might trade Lynch to SD, and then where are we? Either way, I don't think it's crazy for anyone to prefer either of those RBs to the other.Like I said, though... Brandon Jacobs? Yeah, give me Grant over him seven days a week (and twice on Sundays).

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

Way overreacting to the combine on Dwyer.

My only problem with Jstew that high is the chance that Carolina re-signs Williams.

What makes you believe there's a chance that Carolina re-signs Williams? Unless Stewart gets seriously injured, I'm not sure I see it... and if Stewart gets seriously injured, then there are reasons to drop his value beyond just "Carolina re-signed DWill".

Why would Carolina invest another first round pick in an RB after taking DeAngelo in the first? Why would they not entertain trade offers for DeAngelo in the last year of his contract? Carolina LIKES having Stewart and Williams, and they may well take a run at having both of them. It is far from a foregone conclusion that they will not attempt to re-sign him.

Pasquarelli: Panthers may lock up Williams with extension before 2010 season

 

[n20]

Way overreacting to the combine on Dwyer.

My only problem with Jstew that high is the chance that Carolina re-signs Williams.

What makes you believe there's a chance that Carolina re-signs Williams? Unless Stewart gets seriously injured, I'm not sure I see it... and if Stewart gets seriously injured, then there are reasons to drop his value beyond just "Carolina re-signed DWill".

Why would Carolina invest another first round pick in an RB after taking DeAngelo in the first? Why would they not entertain trade offers for DeAngelo in the last year of his contract? Carolina LIKES having Stewart and Williams, and they may well take a run at having both of them. It is far from a foregone conclusion that they will not attempt to re-sign him.

Pasquarelli: Panthers may lock up Williams with extension before 2010 season

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!! I think I just threw up my breakfast. Is Pasquarelli usually on point? In my opinion Carolina would let DWilly walk after this year if John Fox wasn't there but he's got an open invitation to return as coach so extending the lease on the RBBC seems like a definite possibility.

 

[BigJim®]

Way overreacting to the combine on Dwyer.

My only problem with Jstew that high is the chance that Carolina re-signs Williams.

What makes you believe there's a chance that Carolina re-signs Williams? Unless Stewart gets seriously injured, I'm not sure I see it... and if Stewart gets seriously injured, then there are reasons to drop his value beyond just "Carolina re-signed DWill".

Why would Carolina invest another first round pick in an RB after taking DeAngelo in the first? Why would they not entertain trade offers for DeAngelo in the last year of his contract? Carolina LIKES having Stewart and Williams, and they may well take a run at having both of them. It is far from a foregone conclusion that they will not attempt to re-sign him.

Pasquarelli: Panthers may lock up Williams with extension before 2010 season

I'd do the same thing if I were Carolina. Stewart's rookie contract isn't cheap, but it's not much deterrant from re-signing a premier player. He's a huge asset to the team.

 

[SSOG]

Pasquarelli: Panthers may lock up Williams with extension before 2010 season

I can understand why the Panthers would want to re-sign Williams. Williams is a serious talent. I'm just not convinced that they'll be willing to pay Williams as much as he could get elsewhere. Maybe Williams gives them a home-town discount, or decides that they've got a good thing going and he wants to stick around for it, but there's a huge difference between "the Panthers want to extend Williams" and "the Panthers extended Williams"- just like there's a huge difference between "The Panthers want to extend Julius Peppers" and "the Panthers extended Julius Peppers".

 

[JPeso]

Pasquarelli: Panthers may lock up Williams with extension before 2010 season

I can understand why the Panthers would want to re-sign Williams. Williams is a serious talent. I'm just not convinced that they'll be willing to pay Williams as much as he could get elsewhere. Maybe Williams gives them a home-town discount, or decides that they've got a good thing going and he wants to stick around for it, but there's a huge difference between "the Panthers want to extend Williams" and "the Panthers extended Williams"- just like there's a huge difference between "The Panthers want to extend Julius Peppers" and "the Panthers extended Julius Peppers".

Respectfully HATE this comparison, as Julius took every other play off, and has not been candid that he really doesn't like football and could retire any year. Is it likely? Probably not, but I think it's more possible than some think.

 

[Aardvarks]

Sigh. It's like some of you are guzzling Robitussin.

I come in and find Chris Johnson ranked 3rd, 5th, 12th...

It's amazing how fantasy geeks can sweep a 2,000-yard season under a rug.... like throwing dirty underwear behind the bed and telling your Mom you cleaned your room.

I said it before and it's too tiring so I'll cut and paste:

I'm close to 3 members of the Titans; a player, a scout, and a trainer. Trust me, Chris Johnson is rarified, electrified, and basically... Sliced bread. He's never been hurt or appeared as 'questionable' on the injury report. (That "injury" in the playoffs vs. Baltimore 2 years ago was an ordered "hit" by Rex Ryan- Bart Scott ripped his ankle 180 degrees under the pile.) CJ has the best speed in NFL history. His vision is the best since in-prime Tomlinson. His lower body strength is startling. CJ's knees will be preserved on the Nashville grass. He is still learning the passing game - Faulkian rec. numbers will rain on boxscores for years. Roos and Stewart are the two most underrated AFC blockers of the decade. Tennessee's QB output can never get any worse, and CJ still rang up more total yards than any back in history. The defense will always help with takeaways and field position while Fisher coaches. I"m also told CJ is "totally committed to wiping Payton, Barry and Emmitt from the record books." He's All-World, All-Pro, All-In. Chris Johnson is above our silly fantasy analysis - with the "too many touches" or "his stats have to come back to Earth" and blah blah. He's #1. Ray Rice is Errict Rhett with better hands, Maurice Jones-Drew has already peaked, and Adrian Peterson is... Well, he's #2. CJ is #1 and it's just easier to say it out loud. Try it. Say it. It feels right. It is right. Dynasty-Schmynasty.

 

[SSOG]

Pasquarelli: Panthers may lock up Williams with extension before 2010 season

I can understand why the Panthers would want to re-sign Williams. Williams is a serious talent. I'm just not convinced that they'll be willing to pay Williams as much as he could get elsewhere. Maybe Williams gives them a home-town discount, or decides that they've got a good thing going and he wants to stick around for it, but there's a huge difference between "the Panthers want to extend Williams" and "the Panthers extended Williams"- just like there's a huge difference between "The Panthers want to extend Julius Peppers" and "the Panthers extended Julius Peppers".

Respectfully HATE this comparison, as Julius took every other play off, and has not been candid that he really doesn't like football and could retire any year. Is it likely? Probably not, but I think it's more possible than some think.

I agree it's not a great comparison, it was just the first one that came to mind.I recognize the possibility of Carolina locking up Stewart and Williams for years to come, but I will remain skeptical until it actually happens. I can't recall a single instance of a team with a top 10 player at a position spending significant resources to lock up a second top 10 player at the same position. Heck, even in Arizona (which, like Carolina, managed to draft two young studs at the same position within 3 years) eventually let Boldin walk, and Arizona was actually able to put both Boldin and Fitz on the field at the same time.

If I were Carolina, I would love to have Williams on the team for the rest of his career... but I don't know that the marginal gains of assigning cap dollars to Williams (as opposed to just rolling with Stewart) would be greater than the marginal gains I could experience by spending those dollars elsewhere. Also, I don't know if Williams would want to remain in a situation where he's perpetually a 1A when he knows he's good enough to be a clear-cut #1. NFL athletes are, in my experience, largely very prideful people.

 

[beto]

Here goes

1. Chris Johnson - The numbers he could put up over the next few seasons are scary. Unless they get a real QB

2. ADP

3. MJD (agree with UCB that these guys are all in a tier by themselves)

4. Ray Rice - TDs may be inconsistent but this guy should be good for a long time

5. Mendenhall - this tier is crowded but age, opportunity and talent are all on this guy's side

6. Jonathan Stewart - BEAST and 23

7. DeAngelo Williams

8. SJax

9. Beanie Wells - Losing Warner may help him

10. Pierre Thomas - crazy for an undrafted guy to be here a la Priest Holmes

11. Gore

12. Addai

13. S. Greene

14. Forte

15. J. Charles

16. Felix Jones

17. McFadden - Not ready to write him off yet

18. Spiller

19. Moreno

20. R. Grant

21. Ryan Matthews

22. Donald Brown

23. Reggie Bush

24. Jahvid Best

25. McCoy

26. M. Lynch

27. Slaton

28. M. Turner

29. MB3

30. Cedric Benson

31. Ronnie Brown

32. Bradshaw

33. J. Harrison

34. Hightower

35. Choice

36. Maroney

37. Dwyer - could jump a bit with good draft position or opportunity

38. B. Jacobs

39. Sproles

40. K. Smith

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

QUOTE (Anthony Borbely @ Mar 4 2010, 02:13 PM) *I think the Portis and D Will comparison amounts to apples and oranges. Portis has a much bigger career workload

Right. Portis (done at 28) is the exception, not the rule.

LT's last effective year was at 28.Westbrook's decline started at 28.Jacobs' value went through the floor at 28.Ronnie's value went through the floor at 28.Parker's value went through the floor at 28.SSOG himself argues age over mileage for RB, doesn't he?

Wow. Has Dodds done any of his crazy algorithmic work on backs that go down hill at age 28?

 

[THE UNDERCOVER BROTHA]

Here goes1. Chris Johnson - The numbers he could put up over the next few seasons are scary. Unless they get a real QB2. ADP 3. MJD (agree with UCB that these guys are all in a tier by themselves)4. Ray Rice - TDs may be inconsistent but this guy should be good for a long time5. Mendenhall - this tier is crowded but age, opportunity and talent are all on this guy's side6. Jonathan Stewart - BEAST and 237. DeAngelo Williams8. SJax9. Beanie Wells - Losing Warner may help him10. Pierre Thomas - crazy for an undrafted guy to be here a la Priest Holmes11. Gore12. Addai13. S. Greene14. Forte15. J. Charles16. Felix Jones17. McFadden - Not ready to write him off yet18. Spiller19. Moreno20. R. Grant21. Ryan Matthews22. Donald Brown23. Reggie Bush24. Jahvid Best25. McCoy26. M. Lynch27. Slaton28. M. Turner29. MB330. Cedric Benson31. Ronnie Brown32. Bradshaw33. J. Harrison34. Hightower35. Choice36. Maroney37. Dwyer - could jump a bit with good draft position or opportunity38. B. Jacobs39. Sproles40. K. Smith

interesting list. Not high on the rankings of Slaton/Forte/Addai and Dmac where they at but good list overall

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

Pasquarelli: Panthers may lock up Williams with extension before 2010 season

I can understand why the Panthers would want to re-sign Williams. Williams is a serious talent. I'm just not convinced that they'll be willing to pay Williams as much as he could get elsewhere. Maybe Williams gives them a home-town discount, or decides that they've got a good thing going and he wants to stick around for it, but there's a huge difference between "the Panthers want to extend Williams" and "the Panthers extended Williams"- just like there's a huge difference between "The Panthers want to extend Julius Peppers" and "the Panthers extended Julius Peppers".

Respectfully HATE this comparison, as Julius took every other play off, and has not been candid that he really doesn't like football and could retire any year. Is it likely? Probably not, but I think it's more possible than some think.

I agree it's not a great comparison, it was just the first one that came to mind.I recognize the possibility of Carolina locking up Stewart and Williams for years to come, but I will remain skeptical until it actually happens. I can't recall a single instance of a team with a top 10 player at a position spending significant resources to lock up a second top 10 player at the same position. Heck, even in Arizona (which, like Carolina, managed to draft two young studs at the same position within 3 years) eventually let Boldin walk, and Arizona was actually able to put both Boldin and Fitz on the field at the same time.

If I were Carolina, I would love to have Williams on the team for the rest of his career... but I don't know that the marginal gains of assigning cap dollars to Williams (as opposed to just rolling with Stewart) would be greater than the marginal gains I could experience by spending those dollars elsewhere. Also, I don't know if Williams would want to remain in a situation where he's perpetually a 1A when he knows he's good enough to be a clear-cut #1. NFL athletes are, in my experience, largely very prideful people.

This is all wishful thinking. Stewart is playing under his rookie contract through 2012, so the team can afford to pay DeAngelo and RB is the centerpiece of their offense, so it makes sense that they would invest there. RB is one of the CHEAPEST positions to lock up elite players, DeAngelo probably won't even get as much on the open market as Dunta Robinson or Antrel Rolle did this offseason. Arizona didn't let Boldin walk, they traded him for a 3rd after getting seven of his best years and on the verge of Boldin turning 30 in the last year of his contract when they are about to change their personality on offense. They didnt hesitate to sign Fitz to a 4 year, 40 million extension after they had signed Boldin to a 4 year 22.27 million extension, an exorbitant amount to spend at the WR position, but it made sense. Why? Because WRs were the centerpiece of their pass-heavy offense.As far as Williams being unwilling to be a 1A, its just as likely that he knows that sharing with Stewart and running behind that OL will extend his career and financial viability. I know it's hard for some to believe, but locking up Williams for market value is actually a SMART move for Carolina with the blueprint they have and the personnel they have assembled.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

10. Pierre Thomas - crazy for an undrafted guy to be here a la Priest Holmes12. Addai

These two really stand out to me - NO only gave Thomas a 2nd round tender and didnt blink at paying Bush 8+ mil - they havent attempted to lock up Thomas long term and Payton really likes Hamilton, so Im curious what makes him a top 10 back on your list.Addai did play well in the Super Bowl and he was very productive, but he's an FA in 2011 and if Brown stays healthy and looks good this year, I think Indy lets him walk. Polian can be very disciplined about letting players go when they have groomed replacements and the vets are getting salaries that the market sets - even when those players have some good years left in them. At the very best, Addai goes elsewhere to start for a year or two in a much less RB friendly offense, but I think its likely that he either goes elsewhere to be a committee back, or plays second fiddle to Brown in a return in Indy.

 

[Anthony Borbely]

Pasquarelli: Panthers may lock up Williams with extension before 2010 season

I can understand why the Panthers would want to re-sign Williams. Williams is a serious talent. I'm just not convinced that they'll be willing to pay Williams as much as he could get elsewhere. Maybe Williams gives them a home-town discount, or decides that they've got a good thing going and he wants to stick around for it, but there's a huge difference between "the Panthers want to extend Williams" and "the Panthers extended Williams"- just like there's a huge difference between "The Panthers want to extend Julius Peppers" and "the Panthers extended Julius Peppers".

Respectfully HATE this comparison, as Julius took every other play off, and has not been candid that he really doesn't like football and could retire any year. Is it likely? Probably not, but I think it's more possible than some think.

I agree it's not a great comparison, it was just the first one that came to mind.I recognize the possibility of Carolina locking up Stewart and Williams for years to come, but I will remain skeptical until it actually happens. I can't recall a single instance of a team with a top 10 player at a position spending significant resources to lock up a second top 10 player at the same position. Heck, even in Arizona (which, like Carolina, managed to draft two young studs at the same position within 3 years) eventually let Boldin walk, and Arizona was actually able to put both Boldin and Fitz on the field at the same time.

If I were Carolina, I would love to have Williams on the team for the rest of his career... but I don't know that the marginal gains of assigning cap dollars to Williams (as opposed to just rolling with Stewart) would be greater than the marginal gains I could experience by spending those dollars elsewhere. Also, I don't know if Williams would want to remain in a situation where he's perpetually a 1A when he knows he's good enough to be a clear-cut #1. NFL athletes are, in my experience, largely very prideful people.

This is all wishful thinking. Stewart is playing under his rookie contract through 2012, so the team can afford to pay DeAngelo and RB is the centerpiece of their offense, so it makes sense that they would invest there. RB is one of the CHEAPEST positions to lock up elite players, DeAngelo probably won't even get as much on the open market as Dunta Robinson or Antrel Rolle did this offseason. Arizona didn't let Boldin walk, they traded him for a 3rd after getting seven of his best years and on the verge of Boldin turning 30 in the last year of his contract when they are about to change their personality on offense. They didnt hesitate to sign Fitz to a 4 year, 40 million extension after they had signed Boldin to a 4 year 22.27 million extension, an exorbitant amount to spend at the WR position, but it made sense. Why? Because WRs were the centerpiece of their pass-heavy offense.As far as Williams being unwilling to be a 1A, its just as likely that he knows that sharing with Stewart and running behind that OL will extend his career and financial viability. I know it's hard for some to believe, but locking up Williams for market value is actually a SMART move for Carolina with the blueprint they have and the personnel they have assembled.

What dollar amount would you consider fair market value?

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

I recognize the possibility of Carolina locking up Stewart and Williams for years to come, but I will remain skeptical until it actually happens. I can't recall a single instance of a team with a top 10 player at a position spending significant resources to lock up a second top 10 player at the same position. Heck, even in Arizona (which, like Carolina, managed to draft two young studs at the same position within 3 years) eventually let Boldin walk, and Arizona was actually able to put both Boldin and Fitz on the field at the same time.If I were Carolina, I would love to have Williams on the team for the rest of his career... but I don't know that the marginal gains of assigning cap dollars to Williams (as opposed to just rolling with Stewart) would be greater than the marginal gains I could experience by spending those dollars elsewhere. Also, I don't know if Williams would want to remain in a situation where he's perpetually a 1A when he knows he's good enough to be a clear-cut #1. NFL athletes are, in my experience, largely very prideful people.

This is all wishful thinking. Stewart is playing under his rookie contract through 2012, so the team can afford to pay DeAngelo and RB is the centerpiece of their offense, so it makes sense that they would invest there. RB is one of the CHEAPEST positions to lock up elite players, DeAngelo probably won't even get as much on the open market as Dunta Robinson or Antrel Rolle did this offseason. Arizona didn't let Boldin walk, they traded him for a 3rd after getting seven of his best years and on the verge of Boldin turning 30 in the last year of his contract when they are about to change their personality on offense. They didnt hesitate to sign Fitz to a 4 year, 40 million extension after they had signed Boldin to a 4 year 22.27 million extension, an exorbitant amount to spend at the WR position, but it made sense. Why? Because WRs were the centerpiece of their pass-heavy offense.As far as Williams being unwilling to be a 1A, its just as likely that he knows that sharing with Stewart and running behind that OL will extend his career and financial viability. I know it's hard for some to believe, but locking up Williams for market value is actually a SMART move for Carolina with the blueprint they have and the personnel they have assembled.

What dollar amount would you consider fair market value?

at the most, 20-25 mil guaranteed in a 5-6 year deal. MJD only got 17.5 guaranteed over 5 years last offseason, so that's being very generous. MJD was a lot younger then than DeAngelo will be next year.