What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!

Dynasty RB Rankings?!?! Where are they? (1 Viewer)

SSOG said:
I can understand why the Panthers would want to re-sign Williams. Williams is a serious talent. I'm just not convinced that they'll be willing to pay Williams as much as he could get elsewhere. Maybe Williams gives them a home-town discount, or decides that they've got a good thing going and he wants to stick around for it, but there's a huge difference between "the Panthers want to extend Williams" and "the Panthers extended Williams"- just like there's a huge difference between "The Panthers want to extend Julius Peppers" and "the Panthers extended Julius Peppers".
Respectfully HATE this comparison, as Julius took every other play off, and has not been candid that he really doesn't like football and could retire any year. Is it likely? Probably not, but I think it's more possible than some think.
I agree it's not a great comparison, it was just the first one that came to mind.I recognize the possibility of Carolina locking up Stewart and Williams for years to come, but I will remain skeptical until it actually happens. I can't recall a single instance of a team with a top 10 player at a position spending significant resources to lock up a second top 10 player at the same position. Heck, even in Arizona (which, like Carolina, managed to draft two young studs at the same position within 3 years) eventually let Boldin walk, and Arizona was actually able to put both Boldin and Fitz on the field at the same time.

If I were Carolina, I would love to have Williams on the team for the rest of his career... but I don't know that the marginal gains of assigning cap dollars to Williams (as opposed to just rolling with Stewart) would be greater than the marginal gains I could experience by spending those dollars elsewhere. Also, I don't know if Williams would want to remain in a situation where he's perpetually a 1A when he knows he's good enough to be a clear-cut #1. NFL athletes are, in my experience, largely very prideful people.
This is all wishful thinking. Stewart is playing under his rookie contract through 2012, so the team can afford to pay DeAngelo and RB is the centerpiece of their offense, so it makes sense that they would invest there. RB is one of the CHEAPEST positions to lock up elite players, DeAngelo probably won't even get as much on the open market as Dunta Robinson or Antrel Rolle did this offseason. Arizona didn't let Boldin walk, they traded him for a 3rd after getting seven of his best years and on the verge of Boldin turning 30 in the last year of his contract when they are about to change their personality on offense. They didnt hesitate to sign Fitz to a 4 year, 40 million extension after they had signed Boldin to a 4 year 22.27 million extension, an exorbitant amount to spend at the WR position, but it made sense. Why? Because WRs were the centerpiece of their pass-heavy offense.As far as Williams being unwilling to be a 1A, its just as likely that he knows that sharing with Stewart and running behind that OL will extend his career and financial viability. I know it's hard for some to believe, but locking up Williams for market value is actually a SMART move for Carolina with the blueprint they have and the personnel they have assembled.
People who have be sitting on Stewart for a few years now just don't seem to want to accpet this. It's almost as if they think they can will away Williams from the RBBC.
 
SSOG said:
I recognize the possibility of Carolina locking up Stewart and Williams for years to come, but I will remain skeptical until it actually happens. I can't recall a single instance of a team with a top 10 player at a position spending significant resources to lock up a second top 10 player at the same position. Heck, even in Arizona (which, like Carolina, managed to draft two young studs at the same position within 3 years) eventually let Boldin walk, and Arizona was actually able to put both Boldin and Fitz on the field at the same time.If I were Carolina, I would love to have Williams on the team for the rest of his career... but I don't know that the marginal gains of assigning cap dollars to Williams (as opposed to just rolling with Stewart) would be greater than the marginal gains I could experience by spending those dollars elsewhere. Also, I don't know if Williams would want to remain in a situation where he's perpetually a 1A when he knows he's good enough to be a clear-cut #1. NFL athletes are, in my experience, largely very prideful people.
This is all wishful thinking. Stewart is playing under his rookie contract through 2012, so the team can afford to pay DeAngelo and RB is the centerpiece of their offense, so it makes sense that they would invest there. RB is one of the CHEAPEST positions to lock up elite players, DeAngelo probably won't even get as much on the open market as Dunta Robinson or Antrel Rolle did this offseason. Arizona didn't let Boldin walk, they traded him for a 3rd after getting seven of his best years and on the verge of Boldin turning 30 in the last year of his contract when they are about to change their personality on offense. They didnt hesitate to sign Fitz to a 4 year, 40 million extension after they had signed Boldin to a 4 year 22.27 million extension, an exorbitant amount to spend at the WR position, but it made sense. Why? Because WRs were the centerpiece of their pass-heavy offense.As far as Williams being unwilling to be a 1A, its just as likely that he knows that sharing with Stewart and running behind that OL will extend his career and financial viability. I know it's hard for some to believe, but locking up Williams for market value is actually a SMART move for Carolina with the blueprint they have and the personnel they have assembled.
What dollar amount would you consider fair market value?
at the most, 20-25 mil guaranteed in a 5-6 year deal. MJD only got 17.5 guaranteed over 5 years last offseason, so that's being very generous. MJD was a lot younger then than DeAngelo will be next year.
I responded in the other thread.
 
[quote name='beto' date='Mar 14 2010, 07:58 PM' post='11609666]

Here goes

1. Chris Johnson - The numbers he could put up over the next few seasons are scary. Unless they get a real QB

2. ADP

3. MJD (agree with UCB that these guys are all in a tier by themselves)

4. Ray Rice - TDs may be inconsistent but this guy should be good for a long time

5. Mendenhall - this tier is crowded but age, opportunity and talent are all on this guy's side

6. Jonathan Stewart - BEAST and 23

7. DeAngelo Williams

8. SJax

9. Beanie Wells - Losing Warner may help him

10. Pierre Thomas - crazy for an undrafted guy to be here a la Priest Holmes

11. Gore

12. Addai

13. S. Greene

14. Forte

15. J. Charles

16. Felix Jones

17. McFadden - Not ready to write him off yet

18. Spiller

19. Moreno

20. R. Grant

This list from beto is solid. Except take McFadden off completely, it ain't gonna happen for so many reasons. Beanie and S. Greene might be top-7 dynasty backs. And Steven Jackson will be off the map after 2011 because his body snaps, twists and breaks too often.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
10. Pierre Thomas - crazy for an undrafted guy to be here a la Priest Holmes12. Addai
These two really stand out to me - NO only gave Thomas a 2nd round tender and didnt blink at paying Bush 8+ mil - they havent attempted to lock up Thomas long term and Payton really likes Hamilton, so Im curious what makes him a top 10 back on your list.Addai did play well in the Super Bowl and he was very productive, but he's an FA in 2011 and if Brown stays healthy and looks good this year, I think Indy lets him walk. Polian can be very disciplined about letting players go when they have groomed replacements and the vets are getting salaries that the market sets - even when those players have some good years left in them. At the very best, Addai goes elsewhere to start for a year or two in a much less RB friendly offense, but I think its likely that he either goes elsewhere to be a committee back, or plays second fiddle to Brown in a return in Indy.
As far as Thomas goes, I think he will overcome whatever is going on in NO. If someone signs him away I would drop him.Good points on Addai. My ranking is based on staying in Indi for the rest of his career. Polian cut bait on Edge at the right time. He may do the same with Addai.
 
[quote name='beto' date='Mar 14 2010, 07:58 PM' post='11609666]

Here goes

1. Chris Johnson - The numbers he could put up over the next few seasons are scary. Unless they get a real QB

2. ADP

3. MJD (agree with UCB that these guys are all in a tier by themselves)

4. Ray Rice - TDs may be inconsistent but this guy should be good for a long time

5. Mendenhall - this tier is crowded but age, opportunity and talent are all on this guy's side

6. Jonathan Stewart - BEAST and 23

7. DeAngelo Williams

8. SJax

9. Beanie Wells - Losing Warner may help him

10. Pierre Thomas - crazy for an undrafted guy to be here a la Priest Holmes

11. Gore

12. Addai

13. S. Greene

14. Forte

15. J. Charles

16. Felix Jones

17. McFadden - Not ready to write him off yet

18. Spiller

19. Moreno

20. R. Grant

This list from beto is solid. Except take McFadden off completely, it ain't gonna happen for so many reasons. Beanie and S. Greene might be top-7 dynasty backs. And Steven Jackson will be off the map after 2011 because his body snaps, twists and breaks too often.
Im not sure what all the love for B.Wells is??? I mean he's talented sure, but he's not even the full blown number one there, and who knows if that offense is going to produce anything under Leihnert or whoever gets the start. I feel like people want him to be top 10 because of his talent so they wrote it off as it being the offense he was in and once Warner retired he's going to become that featured back everyone was hoping for. Who even knows if his O-line is going to be a good run blocking ground and pound line. This whole offense could be a bust. Just too many question marks surrounding that offense.
 
[quote name='beto' date='Mar 14 2010, 07:58 PM' post='11609666]

Here goes

1. Chris Johnson - The numbers he could put up over the next few seasons are scary. Unless they get a real QB

2. ADP

3. MJD (agree with UCB that these guys are all in a tier by themselves)

4. Ray Rice - TDs may be inconsistent but this guy should be good for a long time

5. Mendenhall - this tier is crowded but age, opportunity and talent are all on this guy's side

6. Jonathan Stewart - BEAST and 23

7. DeAngelo Williams

8. SJax

9. Beanie Wells - Losing Warner may help him

10. Pierre Thomas - crazy for an undrafted guy to be here a la Priest Holmes

11. Gore

12. Addai

13. S. Greene

14. Forte

15. J. Charles

16. Felix Jones

17. McFadden - Not ready to write him off yet

18. Spiller

19. Moreno

20. R. Grant

This list from beto is solid. Except take McFadden off completely, it ain't gonna happen for so many reasons. Beanie and S. Greene might be top-7 dynasty backs. And Steven Jackson will be off the map after 2011 because his body snaps, twists and breaks too often.
Im not sure what all the love for B.Wells is??? I mean he's talented sure, but he's not even the full blown number one there, and who knows if that offense is going to produce anything under Leihnert or whoever gets the start. I feel like people want him to be top 10 because of his talent so they wrote it off as it being the offense he was in and once Warner retired he's going to become that featured back everyone was hoping for. Who even knows if his O-line is going to be a good run blocking ground and pound line. This whole offense could be a bust. Just too many question marks surrounding that offense.
The same reason we all love Stewart. While Beanie isn't on the level of Stewart, these rankings also reflect TALENT in DYNASTY just as much as opportunity. Top notch talent always finds a way. They may not be sure fire studs as soon as tomorrow, but these are also not redraft lists. And, tbh, I can't really name 12 RBs I'd take ahead of him....so RB10 is pretty sound.
 
I don't think Beanie's really all that talented, tbh. CJ3, ADP, MJD, Rice, Stewart, DWill, Gore, SJax, Turner, possibly even Charles... I don't think Wells is a top-10 talent. He's a solid talent, definitely above average, but not a spectacular talent, not the kind of guy who I'll elevate into the top 2-3 tiers because he's a heathen man-beast.

 
gunna take a shot at this..

basing this as a dynasty rank for the next 3 years. current NFL rosters only but including this years rookies pre-draft. seasons 2010, 2011 & 2012



tier one

1. Adrian Peterson

2. Maurice Jones-Drew

3. Chris Johnson

4. Ray Rice

tier two

5. Frank Gore

6. DeAngelo Williams

7. Rashard Mendenhall,

8. Jonathan Stewart

tier three

9. Steven Jackson

10. Chris "Beanie" Wells

11. Mike Turner

12. Shonn Greene

13. Felix Jones

14. CJ Spiller

15. Jamal Charles

tier four

16. Knownshon Moreno

17. Donald Brown

18. Felix Jones

19. Pierre Thomas

20. Ryan Grant

21. Cedric Benson

22. LeSean McCoy

23. Jonathan Dwyer

24. Joey Addai



tier five

25. James Harrison

26. Willis McGahee

27. Ryan Matthews

28. Marshawn Lynch

29. Ahmad Bradshaw

30. Jahvid Best

31. Marion Barber III

32. Matt Forte

tier six

33. Reggie Bush

34. Tashard Choice

35. Brandon Jacobs

36. Fred Jackson

37. Ronnie Brown

38. Kevin Smith

39. Mike Bush

40. Steve Slaton

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Admittedly I'm biased, but It's pretty shocking how far people are dropping Michael Turner (assuming non-PPR).
In the last list "HAM's" he also has SJAX in the 3rd tier. And he has been a awesome rb over the years. But i would assume guys are taking the approach as if the started a draft "right-now" who would they takeif they were up to draft. I personally would grab someone with nice upside in a startup myself like Mendenhall over Turner as well. But if im tweaking my team to make it a super contender i know where the bread and butter is at.
 
I mean, we do this every year; some RB that lit it up the year before falls back down to earth. Derrick Ward most immediately comes to mind. This happens EVERY SINGLE YEAR. This is why I'm not on the the Shonn Greene, Jamaal Charles, James Harrison bandwagons.
Also what happens every single year is owners think 27 or 28 year old RBs have 3 good years left, and then one bad break and all the value is gone. DeAngelo didn't help many owners last year. He'll be 27 when the season starts this year, and he'll be 28 next year. His value is going to drop exponentially, and one bad break will make him Clinton Portis. Portis is only 28 and has almost no dynasty value.Greene is unproven but 1) the NYJs present an ideal opportunity as a run first offense with a great defense and 2) there's reason to believe the Jets are both good at evaluating RB and targeted Greene specifically. I am more hesitant on Charles even though he is more proven (what will Weis do to the offense; now that the audition period is over, will they limit his touches to keep him fresh). I wouldn't recommend Greene just to pick a young RB who had one good game, I would recommend Greene because his opportunity is pretty golden.Derrick Ward is a bad example because he went from a great situation to a bad situation. The fact that he was already 28/29 when that happened sapped any potential future value.
Greene is only two years younger than DeAngelo and SJax.
 
[quote name='beto' date='Mar 14 2010, 07:58 PM' post='11609666]

Here goes

1. Chris Johnson - The numbers he could put up over the next few seasons are scary. Unless they get a real QB

2. ADP

3. MJD (agree with UCB that these guys are all in a tier by themselves)

4. Ray Rice - TDs may be inconsistent but this guy should be good for a long time

5. Mendenhall - this tier is crowded but age, opportunity and talent are all on this guy's side

6. Jonathan Stewart - BEAST and 23

7. DeAngelo Williams

8. SJax

9. Beanie Wells - Losing Warner may help him

10. Pierre Thomas - crazy for an undrafted guy to be here a la Priest Holmes

11. Gore

12. Addai

13. S. Greene

14. Forte

15. J. Charles

16. Felix Jones

17. McFadden - Not ready to write him off yet

18. Spiller

19. Moreno

20. R. Grant

This list from beto is solid. Except take McFadden off completely, it ain't gonna happen for so many reasons. Beanie and S. Greene might be top-7 dynasty backs. And Steven Jackson will be off the map after 2011 because his body snaps, twists and breaks too often.
Yes, write off a guy who is actually slightly younger than C.J. Spiller and Ryan Mathews.
 

Users who are viewing this thread

Back
Top