Dynasty ROOKIE Draft: 2012 Rankings (2 Viewers)

[todisco1]

In ppr dynasty leagues at what point is LaMichael James a consideration? I know he'll never be a workhorse, but what are the odds he carves out a solid role in a RBBC.

 

[noneother]

If I had a #1 pick, it'd be Griffin or Richardson, without doubt.

Likely Griffin.

You guys really need to open those eyes. Grab a beer. Watch him play.

He's football porn.

You don't spend the first overall pick in a dynasty league on a QB. I guess most of the people saying this are mainly redraft players or dynasty start 2 QB players.

Based on the career VBD numbers which I posted here, from 1979-2007 there were 6 QBs who deserved to be the #1 dynasty rookie pick (Rodgers, Manning, Favre, Moon, Marino, and Montana). They're joined by 4 WRs (Owens, J. Smith, Carter, and Rice), 2 TEs (Gates & Gonzalez), and 17 RBs (Peterson, Jones-Drew, S. Jackson, Portis, Tomlinson, Alexander, James, Martin, Faulk, Bettis, Smith, Sanders, Thomas, N. Anderson, Allen, Brooks, & Sims). Fitzgerald & Brady could also still unseat S Jax & Alexander for the top spots in their draft classes.Basically, if you knew that a player was going to be a Hall of Famer, then he would probably deserve to be the 1st or 2nd pick in a rookie draft regardless of position.

This is all based on PFR's numbers from before this season (1/10 yd rush/rec, 1/25 passing, 6/td all, -2/int; baseline of RB24, WR30, QB12, and TE12).

So based on odds to hit, RB is the safer play. But based on scarcity you may want a QB?

 

[ZWK]

If I had a #1 pick, it'd be Griffin or Richardson, without doubt.

Likely Griffin.

You guys really need to open those eyes. Grab a beer. Watch him play.

He's football porn.

You don't spend the first overall pick in a dynasty league on a QB. I guess most of the people saying this are mainly redraft players or dynasty start 2 QB players.

Based on the career VBD numbers which I posted here, from 1979-2007 there were 6 QBs who deserved to be the #1 dynasty rookie pick (Rodgers, Manning, Favre, Moon, Marino, and Montana). They're joined by 4 WRs (Owens, J. Smith, Carter, and Rice), 2 TEs (Gates & Gonzalez), and 17 RBs (Peterson, Jones-Drew, S. Jackson, Portis, Tomlinson, Alexander, James, Martin, Faulk, Bettis, Smith, Sanders, Thomas, N. Anderson, Allen, Brooks, & Sims). Fitzgerald & Brady could also still unseat S Jax & Alexander for the top spots in their draft classes.Basically, if you knew that a player was going to be a Hall of Famer, then he would probably deserve to be the 1st or 2nd pick in a rookie draft regardless of position.

This is all based on PFR's numbers from before this season (1/10 yd rush/rec, 1/25 passing, 6/td all, -2/int; baseline of RB24, WR30, QB12, and TE12).

So based on odds to hit, RB is the safer play. But based on scarcity you may want a QB?

The general point is that RBs do tend to have more value, but it's not overwhelming. There are a good number of players at other positions that are right up there with the top RBs, so identifying the right player (who is actually going to turn out to be a superstar) is more important than picking the most valuable position (RB).Odds do generally favor the RBs, but that depends on the quality of prospects at each position. If a draft class has elite players at other positions (especially if they're the type of prospect who only comes around every 5+ years - like many people think about Luck as a QB and possibly Griffin as well once you include his rushing ability) then they deserve consideration at the top of the draft. If you think that Richardson is an elite (once every 5 or so years) RB prospect then you probably have to put him first, but after that the QBs ought to be up there.

 

[JAA]

I dont understand how Richardson can be so high with how players like Moreno and Mark Ingram have faired

 

[noneother]

Wouldn't say Ingram has failed. Wouldnt say Trent is equal to Moreno either. Some compare him to Peterson.

 

[todisco1]

I dont understand how Richardson can be so high with how players like Moreno and Mark Ingram have faired

Richardson is a far better prospect than Moreno (and Ingram, though it's a bit closer IMO). He could fail, but he has uber elite talent while Moreno had simply good all around talent IMO.

 

[az_prof]

Are there any TEs who may be worthy of a late first round pick?

 

[thriftyrocker]

Are there any TEs who may be worthy of a late first round pick?

No. Dwayne Allen is sort of a Pettigrew all-around type and will probably be the first TE taken. Fleener is a big target but needs to put on weight. Could all change based on situation but in general I think you're better off trading a later pick for Rudolph, Kendricks, or Julius than blowing your 1st.

 

[BigTex]

Are there any TEs who may be worthy of a late first round pick?

Dwyane Allen of Clemson is the correct answer here. Clemson is STACKED with young talent all their skilled positions if not, Allen would be talked about more than he is today. The closer we get to the draft he'll be in EVERY TE discussion as the top dog in this draft.Depending on where he ends up, I'd have no problem grabbing him as early as the 1.7 spot.

 

[BigTex]

Are there any TEs who may be worthy of a late first round pick?

No. Dwayne Allen is sort of a Pettigrew all-around type and will probably be the first TE taken. Fleener is a big target but needs to put on weight. Could all change based on situation but in general I think you're better off trading a later pick for Rudolph, Kendricks, or Julius than blowing your 1st.

I'd take Allen over any of these guys but wouldn't fault anyone if they did what you suggest.

 

[eakfootball]

Just curious what do you think the rookie draft would look like from a dynasty perspective if last years rookies where in the current draft? It would be helpful when thinking about the rookie values i am guessing something like:1. Richardson2. Green3. Jones4. Blackmon5. Luck6. Ingram7. Floyd8. HeluI don't know I'm just thinking out loud. Seems like Richardson would go first then the tree stud wrs which you could probably argue in any order. Then maybe luck?Any thoughts?

Cam Newton needs to be the top player or one of the top players after this FF season.I would rather have David Wilson over Ingram

Murray?

 

[az_prof]

Are there any TEs who may be worthy of a late first round pick?

No. Dwayne Allen is sort of a Pettigrew all-around type and will probably be the first TE taken. Fleener is a big target but needs to put on weight. Could all change based on situation but in general I think you're better off trading a later pick for Rudolph, Kendricks, or Julius than blowing your 1st.

I'd take Allen over any of these guys but wouldn't fault anyone if they did what you suggest.

Thanks guys! It looks like "maybe." And now I know who to watch. Really appreciate it.

 

[az_prof]

Are there any TEs who may be worthy of a late first round pick?

Dwyane Allen of Clemson is the correct answer here. Clemson is STACKED with young talent all their skilled positions if not, Allen would be talked about more than he is today. The closer we get to the draft he'll be in EVERY TE discussion as the top dog in this draft.Depending on where he ends up, I'd have no problem grabbing him as early as the 1.7 spot.

Appreciate the link very much. But after looking, I would say he is more of a second round type pick. Didn't see "wow" factor that I look for. He looks good but not great. Still, very much appreciate this.

 

[fruity pebbles]

Other than Allen, Orson Charles is the guy at tight end im paying attention to. Might be the better fantasy play depending on where he lands.

 

[Xue]

Re: Tight End

How about Ladarius Green?

 

[Xue]

I dont understand how Richardson can be so high with how players like Moreno and Mark Ingram have faired

Anyone who doesn't think Richardson is an elite talent needs to watch more video.I think his closest comparison is Ricky Williams. Both guys are like bulls with quick feet and great hands. Neither have blazing speed. That's his ceiling. His floor is Jonathan Stewart.I don't think Ingram is an elite talent. He needs to be 20-carry back to warrant his high draft status, fantasy-wise.

 

[Bandite]

I agree with rankings posted for most part. I have #2 overall and would love to take LUCK there. 2 QB starting league. Luck or Richardson depending on League Settings.Then Blackmon. After that you have a few solid RBs and WRs and a couple of decent QB options. One thing you could do is send out MOCK drafts starting now to try and influence the picks of others. RG3...#1 Heisman winner.T Richardson...falls to #5. Did you get burned on Ingram in 2011? Well...why draft his teammate it'll just happen again.

Richardson is a much better pro prospect than Ingram.

 

[Bandite]

Griffin > Luck

Yikes!! I dont know if we can say that yet. Luck has been the choosen one for 2 1/2 yrs. RGIII is great, but lets slow hype train down a little bit. I really hope these guys both decide to throw at the combine, kinda doubt it though

 

[Hoss_Cartwright]

I dont understand how Richardson can be so high with how players like Moreno and Mark Ingram have faired

Anyone who doesn't think Richardson is an elite talent needs to watch more video.I think his closest comparison is Ricky Williams. Both guys are like bulls with quick feet and great hands. Neither have blazing speed. That's his ceiling. His floor is Jonathan Stewart.I don't think Ingram is an elite talent. He needs to be 20-carry back to warrant his high draft status, fantasy-wise.

I don't have the numbers in front of me, but does anyone have Richardson's numbers against top defenses the last two years?I would be interested in knowing how much of a stud he is against great defenses.

 

[Ramblin Wreck]

I dont understand how Richardson can be so high with how players like Moreno and Mark Ingram have faired

Anyone who doesn't think Richardson is an elite talent needs to watch more video.I think his closest comparison is Ricky Williams. Both guys are like bulls with quick feet and great hands. Neither have blazing speed. That's his ceiling. His floor is Jonathan Stewart.I don't think Ingram is an elite talent. He needs to be 20-carry back to warrant his high draft status, fantasy-wise.

I don't have the numbers in front of me, but does anyone have Richardson's numbers against top defenses the last two years?I would be interested in knowing how much of a stud he is against great defenses.

http://espn.go.com/college-football/player/gamelog/_/id/480206/trent-richardson

 

[Time Kibitzer]

I dont understand how Richardson can be so high with how players like Moreno and Mark Ingram have faired

What does Moreno have anything to do with Richardson?

 

[Hoss_Cartwright]

I dont understand how Richardson can be so high with how players like Moreno and Mark Ingram have faired

Anyone who doesn't think Richardson is an elite talent needs to watch more video.I think his closest comparison is Ricky Williams. Both guys are like bulls with quick feet and great hands. Neither have blazing speed. That's his ceiling. His floor is Jonathan Stewart.I don't think Ingram is an elite talent. He needs to be 20-carry back to warrant his high draft status, fantasy-wise.

I don't have the numbers in front of me, but does anyone have Richardson's numbers against top defenses the last two years?I would be interested in knowing how much of a stud he is against great defenses.

http://espn.go.com/college-football/player/gamelog/_/id/480206/trent-richardson

He didn't fair so well agains LSU. Also, it's a down year for Florida, Auburn, and Penn St defensively. Is this a mirage? What about last year?

 

[thriftyrocker]

He didn't fair so well agains LSU. Also, it's a down year for Florida, Auburn, and Penn St defensively. Is this a mirage? What about last year?

Pretty sure Adrian Peterson and Darren McFadden threw up some stinkers in college as well. 3.9 YPC against LSU is not reason for pause.

 

[Time Kibitzer]

He didn't fair so well agains LSU. Also, it's a down year for Florida, Auburn, and Penn St defensively. Is this a mirage? What about last year?

Pretty sure Adrian Peterson and Darren McFadden threw up some stinkers in college as well. 3.9 YPC against LSU is not reason for pause.

3.9 YPC against LSU isn't near bad enough to give me pause. Adrian Peterson played in 3 bowl games (against USC, Oregon, and Boise State) in his Oklahoma career, and he had a YPC under 4.0 for every one of those games despite given 20+ carries in every game. A YPC in the high 3's against great defenses is just fine imo.

 

[TheLurkerBelow]

I dont understand how Richardson can be so high with how players like Moreno and Mark Ingram have faired

What does Moreno have anything to do with Richardson?

I think what he's asking is, "Due to the past few fantasy rookie drafts' clear consensus #1 pick being a RB who has been underwhelming, why is everyone willing to continue the trend with Richardson?"The past three drafts have typically had these RBs taken #1 overall:2011 Mark Ingram2010 Knowshon Moreno2009 Ryan Matthews2008 Darren McFadden (or maybe Jonathan Stewart in some drafts)Even though Richardson is his own player and needs to be judged on his own merits, you still want to consider past successes, failures and trends to help maximize the production you get with your pick in the future. Looking back on it, these players probably should have been the #1 picks:2011 A.J. Green or Cam Newton (too be fair, it's still too early to judge)2010 probably still Matthews2009 LeSean McCoy2008 Ray RiceThe question is, what do we draw from this? If you have the #1 pick is it better to trade down for for multiple picks (maybe drop to pick 5 and grab two second rounder, or another first rounder in the following year's draft)? Or, have there just been poor draft classes lately from a fantasy perspective and this year is its own animal and Richardson is the clear stud? To me it seems to be a very deep draft form a fantasy perspective and I'd rather have two picks between #3 - #6 than have the #1 overall, if that were the kind of deal you could swing.

 

[Multiple Scores]

He also put up 80 receiving against LSU. 140 scrimmage yards vs the nations top D ain't too shabby.

I dont understand how Richardson can be so high with how players like Moreno and Mark Ingram have faired

Anyone who doesn't think Richardson is an elite talent needs to watch more video.I think his closest comparison is Ricky Williams. Both guys are like bulls with quick feet and great hands. Neither have blazing speed. That's his ceiling. His floor is Jonathan Stewart.I don't think Ingram is an elite talent. He needs to be 20-carry back to warrant his high draft status, fantasy-wise.

I don't have the numbers in front of me, but does anyone have Richardson's numbers against top defenses the last two years?I would be interested in knowing how much of a stud he is against great defenses.

http://espn.go.com/college-football/player/gamelog/_/id/480206/trent-richardson

He didn't fair so well agains LSU. Also, it's a down year for Florida, Auburn, and Penn St defensively. Is this a mirage? What about last year?

 

[jwb]

I dont understand how Richardson can be so high with how players like Moreno and Mark Ingram have faired

What does Moreno have anything to do with Richardson?

I think what he's asking is, "Due to the past few fantasy rookie drafts' clear consensus #1 pick being a RB who has been underwhelming, why is everyone willing to continue the trend with Richardson?"The past three drafts have typically had these RBs taken #1 overall:

2011 Mark Ingram

2010 Knowshon Moreno

2009 Ryan Matthews

2008 Darren McFadden (or maybe Jonathan Stewart in some drafts)

Even though Richardson is his own player and needs to be judged on his own merits, you still want to consider past successes, failures and trends to help maximize the production you get with your pick in the future. Looking back on it, these players probably should have been the #1 picks:

2011 A.J. Green or Cam Newton (too be fair, it's still too early to judge)

2010 probably still Matthews

2009 LeSean McCoy

2008 Ray Rice

The question is, what do we draw from this? If you have the #1 pick is it better to trade down for for multiple picks (maybe drop to pick 5 and grab two second rounder, or another first rounder in the following year's draft)? Or, have there just been poor draft classes lately from a fantasy perspective and this year is its own animal and Richardson is the clear stud?

To me it seems to be a very deep draft form a fantasy perspective and I'd rather have two picks between #3 - #6 than have the #1 overall, if that were the kind of deal you could swing.

We seem to hear this almost every year - we get a clear top 3 / 4 / 7 / etc. Someone from 5-10 always does well, and someone taken early may bust or is ordinary.The thing with Richardson (and Moreno and Ingram and McFadden) is if you *do* get that elite, 3-down RB... well, that's the most valuable player to have in FF. The LT's, the ADP's, etc. The once every 5-7 year guy who's not just really good, but hall of fame, never trade him from your fantasy team good. The guy that carries you for years. That's why these RB's always go so high - you hope that the consensus top guy is one of those types of players.

 

[EBF]

Richardson is a monster. I think he's instantly a top 3 dynasty RB along with Rice and McCoy. He is a better looking prospect than they were entering the league, but he might not end up in such a friendly system. One nice thing about him is that he can catch the ball well out of the backfield, so he has PPR potential that a player like Ingram never really possessed.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

I dont understand how Richardson can be so high with how players like Moreno and Mark Ingram have faired

I dont understand how Luck can be so high with how players like JaMarcus Russel and Matt Leinart have fairedI dont understand how Blackmon can be so high with how players like Roy Williams and Charles Rogers have faired

 

[Xue]

Pretty sure Adrian Peterson and Darren McFadden threw up some stinkers in college as well. 3.9 YPC against LSU is not reason for pause.

Agree. When you're getting hit in the backfield all game, it's not your fault. Every running back can be shut down.

 

[dallas]

Richardson is a monster. I think he's instantly a top 3 dynasty RB along with Rice and McCoy. He is a better looking prospect than they were entering the league, but he might not end up in such a friendly system. One nice thing about him is that he can catch the ball well out of the backfield, so he has PPR potential that a player like Ingram never really possessed.

Where would Richardson rank value wise compared to multiple other rookies? For example, if you had the #2 and #3 pick (Blackmon and Luck) would you trade them both for Richardson? What about Blackmon and RG3? In one league I have multiple first round picks and I'm curious how much distance there is between Richardson and the other top picks.

 

[Touchdown Syndrome]

I dont understand how Richardson can be so high with how players like Moreno and Mark Ingram have faired

I dont understand how Luck can be so high with how players like JaMarcus Russel and Matt Leinart have fairedI dont understand how Blackmon can be so high with how players like Roy Williams and Charles Rogers have faired

Haha, i was thinking of the same response.Trent is on a different level as a RB prospect compared to Ingram and Moreno. Their lack of break-out success (so far) has nothing to do with Richardson.As of this second, I think the Big Four are Richardson, Blackmon, Miller, and Luck.

 

[Max Power]

Richardson is a monster. I think he's instantly a top 3 dynasty RB along with Rice and McCoy. He is a better looking prospect than they were entering the league, but he might not end up in such a friendly system. One nice thing about him is that he can catch the ball well out of the backfield, so he has PPR potential that a player like Ingram never really possessed.

Where would Richardson rank value wise compared to multiple other rookies? For example, if you had the #2 and #3 pick (Blackmon and Luck) would you trade them both for Richardson? What about Blackmon and RG3? In one league I have multiple first round picks and I'm curious how much distance there is between Richardson and the other top picks.

I'm currently thinking 1.01 >>>>> 1.02-1.03 >> 1.04-1.06 >>>>> the rest.Of course draft day will probably alter this slightly. But sadly, If I'm sitting at 1.01, someone would have to offer MORE than fair value to get that pick this year.

 

[EBF]

Richardson is a monster. I think he's instantly a top 3 dynasty RB along with Rice and McCoy. He is a better looking prospect than they were entering the league, but he might not end up in such a friendly system. One nice thing about him is that he can catch the ball well out of the backfield, so he has PPR potential that a player like Ingram never really possessed.

Where would Richardson rank value wise compared to multiple other rookies? For example, if you had the #2 and #3 pick (Blackmon and Luck) would you trade them both for Richardson? What about Blackmon and RG3? In one league I have multiple first round picks and I'm curious how much distance there is between Richardson and the other top picks.

Really depends on the format. I'm in one league where passing yards and TDs count the same as rushing/receiving. In that format I'd probably take Luck 1.01. In most formats I would take Richardson though. In a standard PPR league I would probably go...1. Richardson2. Blackmon3. Luck4. FloydI'm pretty high on Blackmon and Floyd, but there's at least some minor bust risk with both of them, whereas I think Richardson has a 0% chance of failing because of talent. The only way he will be a bust is if character drags him down, which doesn't seem likely. I think he's a near lock to become that Edgerrin James/Clinton Portis type of dominant franchise RB who can deliver year in and year out.Blackmon and Floyd have a chance to equal his scoring in ppr leagues, but I think there's a wider range of potential outcomes with them. You could get Hakeem Nicks or merely Braylon Edwards. I would tentatively say that 1.02 and 1.06 represents fair value for Richardson in PPR. I think he is worth more in most non-PPR formats because Blackmon and Floyd will be devalued.

 

[pghrob]

I dont understand how Richardson can be so high with how players like Moreno and Mark Ingram have faired

What does Moreno have anything to do with Richardson?

I think what he's asking is, "Due to the past few fantasy rookie drafts' clear consensus #1 pick being a RB who has been underwhelming, why is everyone willing to continue the trend with Richardson?"The past three drafts have typically had these RBs taken #1 overall:

2011 Mark Ingram

2010 Knowshon Moreno

2009 Ryan Matthews

2008 Darren McFadden (or maybe Jonathan Stewart in some drafts)

Even though Richardson is his own player and needs to be judged on his own merits, you still want to consider past successes, failures and trends to help maximize the production you get with your pick in the future. Looking back on it, these players probably should have been the #1 picks:

2011 A.J. Green or Cam Newton (too be fair, it's still too early to judge)

2010 probably still Matthews

2009 LeSean McCoy

2008 Ray Rice

The question is, what do we draw from this? If you have the #1 pick is it better to trade down for for multiple picks (maybe drop to pick 5 and grab two second rounder, or another first rounder in the following year's draft)? Or, have there just been poor draft classes lately from a fantasy perspective and this year is its own animal and Richardson is the clear stud?

To me it seems to be a very deep draft form a fantasy perspective and I'd rather have two picks between #3 - #6 than have the #1 overall, if that were the kind of deal you could swing.

We seem to hear this almost every year - we get a clear top 3 / 4 / 7 / etc. Someone from 5-10 always does well, and someone taken early may bust or is ordinary.The thing with Richardson (and Moreno and Ingram and McFadden) is if you *do* get that elite, 3-down RB... well, that's the most valuable player to have in FF. The LT's, the ADP's, etc. The once every 5-7 year guy who's not just really good, but hall of fame, never trade him from your fantasy team good. The guy that carries you for years. That's why these RB's always go so high - you hope that the consensus top guy is one of those types of players.

Rookie drafts, while important, are not built solely on #1 or top 5 picks. I have had great luck with players like Jamaal Charles, Arian Foster, Jimmy Graham, Aaron Hernandez, and Mike Wallace. First round picks and those in top 5 are picks that people would want to be assured of getting top production - which is way too obvious a thing for me to post. If there is strong consensus that Andrew Luck is one of the best qb's to come into the draft in the last 10 years, or that he has a chance to be the next Peyton Manning or post perennial numbers like a Drew Brees or Aaron Rodgers or Tom Brady, then how can you pass on taking him #1 overall - even in leagues that are not Start 2 qb formats?

ETA: The league I would take Luck #1 overall is PPR and All TD's 6 pts. Rosters are start 1 qb, 2rb, 2wr, 1te, 1 d/st, 1k Frustratingly, there is no flex

 

[Multiple Scores]

Richardson is a monster. I think he's instantly a top 3 dynasty RB along with Rice and McCoy. He is a better looking prospect than they were entering the league, but he might not end up in such a friendly system. One nice thing about him is that he can catch the ball well out of the backfield, so he has PPR potential that a player like Ingram never really possessed.

Right there with you on Richardson. In a normal league I would spend a 1st in a dynasty draft that includes both veterans and rookies.

 

[Multiple Scores]

For anyone interested ESPNU will be rebroadcasting many Alabama games in the coming weeks. Too bad I can't find the Ole Miss game as Richardson showed everything you want to see out of a future pro.

 

[Max Power]

Rookie drafts, while important, are not built solely on #1 or top 5 picks. I have had great luck with players like Jamaal Charles, Arian Foster, Jimmy Graham, Aaron Hernandez, and Mike Wallace. First round picks and those in top 5 are picks that people would want to be assured of getting top production - which is way too obvious a thing for me to post. If there is strong consensus that Andrew Luck is one of the best qb's to come into the draft in the last 10 years, or that he has a chance to be the next Peyton Manning or post perennial numbers like a Drew Brees or Aaron Rodgers or Tom Brady, then how can you pass on taking him #1 overall - even in leagues that are not Start 2 qb formats? ETA: The league I would take Luck #1 overall is PPR and All TD's 6 pts. Rosters are start 1 qb, 2rb, 2wr, 1te, 1 d/st, 1k Frustratingly, there is no flex

I have no problem admitting I'm ONLY interested in the top half of the first round. There have been a couple deep drafts lately, so there has been talent hanging around in the late first and second. Its just way too much of a crapshoot after the first 5-6 picks. Sure someone in the top 5 can bust, but I'll take that chance over someone in the back half of the round anyday. If I can move up, I will. If not, I look to deal out of the draft. You'd be suprised what some owners will give you for a first round pick.

 

[duaneok66]

For anyone interested ESPNU will be rebroadcasting many Alabama games in the coming weeks. Too bad I can't find the Ole Miss game as Richardson showed everything you want to see out of a future pro.

thank you - i don't usually watch college football so I have something to do (television wise) before the bowl game.

 

[jwb]

Richardson is a monster. I think he's instantly a top 3 dynasty RB along with Rice and McCoy. He is a better looking prospect than they were entering the league, but he might not end up in such a friendly system. One nice thing about him is that he can catch the ball well out of the backfield, so he has PPR potential that a player like Ingram never really possessed.

Right there with you on Richardson. In a normal league I would spend a 1st in a dynasty draft that includes both veterans and rookies.

You'll probably have to if you want him. In most startups I've seen, an early to mid 2nd for the consensus top rookie rb is about right. But Richardson has been strongly on the radar for two years now - even when Ingram was hyped, it was always "yea, but wait till Richardson". Unless he bombs from here on out, he'll probably go earlier than Ingram/Matthews/Moreno/McFadden did.

 

[EBF]

Yea, that's a safe bet. I would take him first round and I think others would too. I'd be surprised if he dropped out of the first in most leagues. Hype wise he should be closer to Bush/Peterson than Mathews/Moreno.

 

[wiscstlatlmia]

I feel like Richardson is the Calvin Johnson of RB prospects.

 

[cstu]

I feel like Richardson is the Calvin Johnson of RB prospects.

He's the best overall RB I've seen since Peterson.That said, I love Blackmon too but there's more risk with him than Richardson.

 

[Multiple Scores]

Matt Barkley press conference today at 4est. Hearing he is staying but that could be worthless chatter. If he does stay it gets interesting and RG3 becomes even more valuable.

 

[kgk1979]

I think Richardson and Luck will go 1 & 2 in most formats and then it gets a little dicey. I have RGIII ahead of Barkley for the #2 QB because of his legs. He looks to be a more accurate version of Cam. It is too early to think about ranking all of the other RBs. This position all depends where they get drafted. I would still take Richardson ahead of all the other running backs no matter what though.As far as WR goes I would rank them in this order. Blackmon, Floyd, Jeffery & Wright. After that I think it will also depend on what team drafts them.

Only start 2 qb leagues take a QB in the top three 99% of the time, regardless who they are. No doubt the top 3 will be 1) Richardson, 2) Blackmon, 3) Floyd.

I normally agree but I think Luck might be the exception. Also the 4 teams remaining in the playoff in my league have, Brees, Newton, Brady and Rodgers. I think the NFL is moving more and more to a passing league and the top QBs are becoming way more valuable.

 

[Concept Coop]

I think Richardson and Luck will go 1 & 2 in most formats and then it gets a little dicey. I have RGIII ahead of Barkley for the #2 QB because of his legs. He looks to be a more accurate version of Cam. It is too early to think about ranking all of the other RBs. This position all depends where they get drafted. I would still take Richardson ahead of all the other running backs no matter what though.As far as WR goes I would rank them in this order. Blackmon, Floyd, Jeffery & Wright. After that I think it will also depend on what team drafts them.

Only start 2 qb leagues take a QB in the top three 99% of the time, regardless who they are. No doubt the top 3 will be 1) Richardson, 2) Blackmon, 3) Floyd.

I normally agree but I think Luck might be the exception. Also the 4 teams remaining in the playoff in my league have, Brees, Newton, Brady and Rodgers. I think the NFL is moving more and more to a passing league and the top QBs are becoming way more valuable.

I don't know that we know this yet. As early as last year, not one QB produced 100 VBD. Now, 4 are going to. That could be a permanent change, due to the new rules implemented this year. But it could also be an outlier. The rule change could very well help all QBs evenly - no extra value over replacement.Also, when talking about dynasty leagues, raw VBD can only go so far. A RB that is projected to get a lion's share of the carries and has a solid health history gets a bump in value that isn't measured by raw VBD. You also have to take roster spots into consideration. The more elite RB options you have, the less roster space needed for lottery tickets at the position. LeSean McCoy was worth more than any QB this year, even if raw VBD suggests otherwise. In other words, the RB position is still the most likely to produce the most value over replacement. Now, if you are not sold on Richardson, that is another story.

 

[Concept Coop]

He didn't fair so well agains LSU. Also, it's a down year for Florida, Auburn, and Penn St defensively. Is this a mirage? What about last year?

He looked like one of the best players on the field agaist LSU. When LSU sells out to stop the run, 3.9 is not something to sneeze at. IIRC, he did some damage out of the backfield too.

 

[JAA]

Richardson is a monster. I think he's instantly a top 3 dynasty RB along with Rice and McCoy. He is a better looking prospect than they were entering the league, but he might not end up in such a friendly system. One nice thing about him is that he can catch the ball well out of the backfield, so he has PPR potential that a player like Ingram never really possessed.

Of course he was a better looking prospect than Rice and McCoy. Thats the point, none of those backs have performed better than Rice and McCoy. All of these 'expert grades' dont mean crap.I would love to see ANY poster who was saying Ingram wasnt 'instantly a top 3 synasty prospect'.

 

[JAA]

I dont understand how Richardson can be so high with how players like Moreno and Mark Ingram have faired

I dont understand how Luck can be so high with how players like JaMarcus Russel and Matt Leinart have fairedI dont understand how Blackmon can be so high with how players like Roy Williams and Charles Rogers have faired

Russel and Leinart havnt been 1.01 FF picks.I remember posting to the board the Russell had bust written all over him.Again, this is about how to best utilize a 1.01-1.03 pick.

 

[JAA]

Richardson is a monster. I think he's instantly a top 3 dynasty RB along with Rice and McCoy. He is a better looking prospect than they were entering the league, but he might not end up in such a friendly system. One nice thing about him is that he can catch the ball well out of the backfield, so he has PPR potential that a player like Ingram never really possessed.

Where would Richardson rank value wise compared to multiple other rookies? For example, if you had the #2 and #3 pick (Blackmon and Luck) would you trade them both for Richardson? What about Blackmon and RG3? In one league I have multiple first round picks and I'm curious how much distance there is between Richardson and the other top picks.

Really depends on the format. I'm in one league where passing yards and TDs count the same as rushing/receiving. In that format I'd probably take Luck 1.01. In most formats I would take Richardson though. In a standard PPR league I would probably go...1. Richardson2. Blackmon3. Luck4. FloydI'm pretty high on Blackmon and Floyd, but there's at least some minor bust risk with both of them, whereas I think Richardson has a 0% chance of failing because of talent. The only way he will be a bust is if character drags him down, which doesn't seem likely. I think he's a near lock to become that Edgerrin James/Clinton Portis type of dominant franchise RB who can deliver year in and year out.Blackmon and Floyd have a chance to equal his scoring in ppr leagues, but I think there's a wider range of potential outcomes with them. You could get Hakeem Nicks or merely Braylon Edwards. I would tentatively say that 1.02 and 1.06 represents fair value for Richardson in PPR. I think he is worth more in most non-PPR formats because Blackmon and Floyd will be devalued.

I hope the 1.01's in HAL's agree with you ...