Dynasty Strategy (1 Viewer)

[switz]

In every draft, we decide who to draft based on a mixture of production and potential. In redrafts, we probably weigh production heavily, and look at potential only for sleepers or breakout players.

In dynasty leagues though, it seems a good team has to weigh potential much more heavily. But the question is, where does one draw the line?

For instance, in redraft leagues, it is typical to avoid rookie WRs for the most part. Generally WRs don't produce much their first year, and even still little their second year. So in redraft, most just avoid those players altogether.

In a dynasty league though, getting a Sinorice Moss might be a championship winning move, for three years down the road. But at what cost? To acquire a hot rookie, one may risk a losing season, or even two losing seasons, by missing out on a player that can help NOW to get one that will be a SUPERSTAR later.

What I'm doing with players then, is projecting the next three years, and averaging those projections, in order to come up with rankings for my initial dynasty draft. The problem of course, is how do you project three years in advance? Well I'm looking at that supporting players become FAs within those three years. But that's not really enough. It's hard to predict coaching changes, injuries, the way the game changes season to season.

So I was wondering, how do others draw the line between production and potential?

 

[nightshift]

Once I have drafted a team that can produce, then I start to look for potential. I think far too many dynasty players grab up rookies too early and their team suffers for it.

 

[pacman_fl]

I am in 2 start up Dynasty leagues this year (first time for me). My thoughts are to use my re-draft rankings but move all rookies up 1 or 2 tiers/rounds (less at the top/more at the bottom). Also, when looking at these rankings, the "tie" goes to the younger player (a given I assume). It really depends on your strategy. It comes down to personal preference on building your team - are you shooting to win the first 2 years, or are you looking at winning years 3-5 (roundabouts on both ends)? I also think it is more important in these drafts not to "target" players (even more so than re-drafts) because it will be easy to reach. Just my opinions, but I appreciate the topic.

 

[switz]

Just my opinions, but I appreciate the topic.

Thanks, good feedback so far, though not alot of it

 

[EBF]

Tough question. In many ways, it's a matter of personal preference. I know a lot of owners who operate under a "win now at all costs" strategy. This often works in the short term, but a lot of these teams eventually burn up all their assets and end up being cellar dwellers after 1-2 seasons.

At the same time, every dynasty league has one or two owners who always seem to be thinking 1-2 years down the road. The thing about these guys is that they consistently sabotage their team's short term chances in hopes of building the perfect squad. I have yet to see one of these teams become a contender. Inevitably, some of their "huge upside" picks bust horribly (Rogers, Winslow, McGahee, Koren), leaving the team back where it started.

Personally, I try to find a nice middle ground between these two strategies. I use my early picks on elite talents. In my most recent dyansty draft, I took Reggie Bush, Larry Fitzgerald, Ben Roethlisberger, and Jeremy Shockey with my first four selections. You'll note that there's one rookie in this bunch, but I'd contend that Bush is as safe a dynasty pick as almost any RB in the NFL. Fitzgerald, Shockey, and Roethlisberger are young, but they're all among the best players at their position in the NFL. They're the kind of guys that I want on my team.

The proven elite talents are gone by the time the middle rounds come around, so I start to relax and take a mix of underrated veterans and promising youngsters who could eventually become elite players. With my next few picks in the aforementioned dynasty draft, I selected LenDale White, Laveranues Coles, Antonio Bryant, Matt Jones, Chad Jackson, Ben Troupe, and Eddie Kennison. This is a nice mix of proven veterans and promising prospects. Bryant, Coles, and Kennison are 1,000 yard receivers who should all be the clear-cut #1 for their respective teams. I classify them as underrated veterans. White, Jones, Jackson, and Troupe are promising youngsters who could all break out in the next few years. A few of them will bust, but that's okay, because I don't really need all of them to pan out.

By this time in the draft I've already locked up what I consider to be a pretty good base of talent. From this point on I'm taking shots on young players with almost every pick.

A lot of dynasty guys will tell you that rookies are overrated. I disagree. While it's true that high-profile rookies like Laurence Maroney, DeAngelo Williams, and Joseph Addai go earlier than where the odds might justify taking them, I think it's clear that second tier rookies generally offer incredible value in initial dynasty drafts. Vince Young in the 6th round is terrible value, but Tarvaris Jackson in the 18th is grand theft. You can steal guys like Derek Hagan, Marcedes Lewis, Maurice Drew, Kellen Clemens, Travis Wilson, Willie Reid, and Greg Jennings for nothing. They won't all pan out, but some of them will. Remember Anquan Boldin, Darrell Jackson, Laveranues Coles, Chad Johnson, Steve Smith, Hines Ward, and Terrell Owens? They were all second tier rookies at one point.

Historically, 2nd and 3rd round NFL draft picks succeed at about 50-60% the rate of their first round counterparts. Looking purely at the odds, a guy like Jerious Norwood isn't really that much worse a bet than Joseph Addai, yet there's a huge disparity in cost betweent these two players.

Anyhow, I got off on a tangent. To keep it simple, I view my 12 team initial dynasty drafts as having three stages:

Stage 1 - Rounds 1-5 - Grab elite talents at whatever position they're available at. Do not reach for RBs. Do not reach for mediocre players or one-year wonders. Do not worry about starting requirements. Simply take the best players available. Take a great QB, TE, or WR over a mediocre RB. Only 5-6 RBs are actually worth top 20 picks.

Stage 2 - Rounds 6-10 - Grab solid depth guys and top tier prospects. This is a good spot to take backup first round RBs like Chris Perry (and Larry Johnson a couple years back). It's also a good range to take top tier sophomore WRs coming off impressive rookie seasons (Matt Jones is my pick this year, but you might like Reggie Brown or Mark Clayton).

Stage 3 - Rounds 11 and higher - Take shots on unproven youngsters and unheralded rookies. These rounds can really make your draft if you pick well. The next Steve Smith, Chad Johnson, Carson Palmer, or Anquan Boldin is out there. You want to give yourself a good chance to land that future star, so you want to stock up on high draft picks who remain below the radar due to a quiet rookie year or a lack of opportunity.

 

[ConstruxBoy]

Solid post as always EBF. Early rounds/Core roster of high production, later rounds/roster fillers of high potential. I'm still getting there in Z30.

 

[Kit Fisto]

In many ways, it's a matter of personal preference. Personally, I try to find a nice middle ground between these two strategies. By this time in the draft I've already locked up what I consider to be a pretty good base of talent. From this point on I'm taking shots on young players with almost every pick. A lot of dynasty guys will tell you that rookies are overrated. I disagree. They won't all pan out, but some of them will.

Well said. I liked these tidbits from your post.As always, fliers are just that. I'm all for people taking chances on fliers, but to depend on them is ludicrous. Once you have a solid week-in, week-out lineup in place, then take some chances on your 6th RB or 8th WR. Because chances are, if you're starting those 6th RBs and 8th WRs, your season is already finished.

 

[EBF]

Solid post as always EBF. Early rounds/Core roster of high production, later rounds/roster fillers of high potential. I'm still getting there in Z30.

Me too. I thought I was playing it safe last year with Ahman Green and Jamal Lewis as my first two picks. :X

 

[coolnerd]

Solid post as always EBF. Early rounds/Core roster of high production, later rounds/roster fillers of high potential. I'm still getting there in Z30.

Me too. I thought I was playing it safe last year with Ahman Green and Jamal Lewis as my first two picks. :X

i am going to say that there is not a such thing a safe RB. I try to only think two years out on RBs and hope I get lucky. The top 16 RBs from a random preview magazine two years ago. 1-LT22-Duece3-Priest4- A. Green5-Portis6- Jamal7- SA8- Barlow9- Edge10- Taylor11- Ricky williams12- Stephen Davis13-DomDavis14- Travis Henry15-Dillion16- FaulkSo still number 1s I would want- LT2, Portis, alexander, Edge

 

[EBF]

Solid post as always EBF. Early rounds/Core roster of high production, later rounds/roster fillers of high potential. I'm still getting there in Z30.

Me too. I thought I was playing it safe last year with Ahman Green and Jamal Lewis as my first two picks. :X

i am going to say that there is not a such thing a safe RB. I try to only think two years out on RBs and hope I get lucky. The top 16 RBs from a random preview magazine two years ago. 1-LT22-Duece3-Priest4- A. Green5-Portis6- Jamal7- SA8- Barlow9- Edge10- Taylor11- Ricky williams12- Stephen Davis13-DomDavis14- Travis Henry15-Dillion16- FaulkSo still number 1s I would want- LT2, Portis, alexander, Edge

Like I say, build around WRs and QBs. RBs are horribly overvalued in dynasty drafts.

 

[ConstruxBoy]

Solid post as always EBF. Early rounds/Core roster of high production, later rounds/roster fillers of high potential. I'm still getting there in Z30.

Me too. I thought I was playing it safe last year with Ahman Green and Jamal Lewis as my first two picks. :X

i am going to say that there is not a such thing a safe RB. I try to only think two years out on RBs and hope I get lucky. The top 16 RBs from a random preview magazine two years ago. 1-LT22-Duece3-Priest4- A. Green5-Portis6- Jamal7- SA8- Barlow9- Edge10- Taylor11- Ricky williams12- Stephen Davis13-DomDavis14- Travis Henry15-Dillion16- FaulkSo still number 1s I would want- LT2, Portis, alexander, Edge

Like I say, build around WRs and QBs. RBs are horribly overvalued in dynasty drafts.

I went with SJax and Westbrook in the initial draft last year. One hit, one miss (non-PPR league). I do have Moats though.

 

[coolnerd]

Solid post as always EBF. Early rounds/Core roster of high production, later rounds/roster fillers of high potential. I'm still getting there in Z30.

Me too. I thought I was playing it safe last year with Ahman Green and Jamal Lewis as my first two picks. :X

i am going to say that there is not a such thing a safe RB. I try to only think two years out on RBs and hope I get lucky. The top 16 RBs from a random preview magazine two years ago. 1-LT22-Duece3-Priest4- A. Green5-Portis6- Jamal7- SA8- Barlow9- Edge10- Taylor11- Ricky williams12- Stephen Davis13-DomDavis14- Travis Henry15-Dillion16- FaulkSo still number 1s I would want- LT2, Portis, alexander, Edge

Like I say, build around WRs and QBs. RBs are horribly overvalued in dynasty drafts.

Yeah, I think we had this discussion in the Hyper thread. In that draft I took Steve Smith and Chad Johnson to build around.