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[Dynasty] Todd Gurley

Rotoworld:

Georgia RB Todd Gurley refused to allow doctors to examine his surgically repaired knee at the Combine.

Gurley tore his ACL last November, the lone red flag on his otherwise spotless resume. Per Silver, it is considered "highly unusual, if not unprecedented" for a player to turn down his physical at the Combine. People inside the NFL still think highly of Gurley, but may not have full medical information on him until the Combine re-check closer to the draft. We can't speculate on why Gurley refused the exam, but it's definitely an eyebrow-raising decision.

Source: Mike Silver on Twitter
Feb 20 - 11:55 AM
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Faust said:
Rotoworld:

Georgia RB Todd Gurley refused to allow doctors to examine his surgically repaired knee at the Combine.

Gurley tore his ACL last November, the lone red flag on his otherwise spotless resume. Per Silver, it is considered "highly unusual, if not unprecedented" for a player to turn down his physical at the Combine. People inside the NFL still think highly of Gurley, but may not have full medical information on him until the Combine re-check closer to the draft. We can't speculate on why Gurley refused the exam, but it's definitely an eyebrow-raising decision.

Source: Mike Silver on Twitter
Feb 20 - 11:55 AM
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Shouldn't this be a major red flag?

 
Considering the combine docs re-injured Kroft's ankle, maybe not stupid.

It becomes a huge flag if he does not get examined closer to the draft though.

 
Report: Todd Gurley not letting NFL teams examine his knee

Excerpt:

Here's one interesting theory: What if Gurley wants to fall in the draft? Not allowing teams to look at his knee would mean a probable fall in the draft, potentially into the second round.
That usually wouldn't be something a player chased, but because of the new CBA rules, Gurley would only have a four-year contract without a fifth-year option. He'd end up hitting free agency a year earlier as a result and wouldn't have to worry about the price of a late-round fifth-year option.
Click to expand...
 
Faust said:
Report: Todd Gurley not letting NFL teams examine his knee

Excerpt:

Here's one interesting theory: What if Gurley wants to fall in the draft? Not allowing teams to look at his knee would mean a probable fall in the draft, potentially into the second round.
That usually wouldn't be something a player chased, but because of the new CBA rules, Gurley would only have a four-year contract without a fifth-year option. He'd end up hitting free agency a year earlier as a result and wouldn't have to worry about the price of a late-round fifth-year option.
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Seems extremely far-fetched. Possible, but highly unlikely IMO.

 
Michael Silver @MikeSilver

Update on Gurley: I'm told that his surgeon, Dr. James Andrews, did not want 32 teams poking and prodding his surgically repaired knee...
Michael Silver @MikeSilver
And I'm told Gurley will return next month for a medical re-check, at which point he plans to let teams examine the knee...




R-E-L-A-X
 
Faust said:
Report: Todd Gurley not letting NFL teams examine his knee

Excerpt:

Here's one interesting theory: What if Gurley wants to fall in the draft? Not allowing teams to look at his knee would mean a probable fall in the draft, potentially into the second round.

That usually wouldn't be something a player chased, but because of the new CBA rules, Gurley would only have a four-year contract without a fifth-year option. He'd end up hitting free agency a year earlier as a result and wouldn't have to worry about the price of a late-round fifth-year option.
Click to expand...
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This is the kind of ridiculous speculation that makes this time of year a headache. It's laughably bad.
 
2015 Combine: 'Patient' Gurley passes on medical exam
INDIANAPOLIS -- Georgia running back Todd Gurley is projected as a first-round pick, but a big piece of his final draft evaluation will be medical tests on his surgically repaired knee.

Gurley plans to wait for the official medical re-check in April to allow teams to examine his left knee. He tore the anterior cruciate ligament November 15 -- in his first game back from a suspension handed down Oct. 9 for receiving payment for his autograph -- and surgery was performed by renowned surgeon Dr. James Andrews. Andrews did not want teams pulling and manipulating the knee.

All 323 players in attendance at the annual Scouting Combine are scheduled for thorough medical exams performed by NFL team doctors at a local hospital near downtown Indianapolis. Players do not opt out of the tests. It is not known to have happened in at least two decades.

Gurley, who signed with Jay-Z's Roc Nation agency, will not participate in Georgia's pro day March 18. It's unlikely he will hold a workout in April before the draft. Gurley said he is just beginning to perform lateral agility drills.

"The timetable is six to nine months. I got hurt in November, so I'm not really giving no timetable," said Gurley, who admitted patience is not his strong suit, Thursday afternoon. "I'm just trying to get back safe, but as quick as possible."

He does not expect his recovery to hinder his draft grade. Along with Wisconsin's Melvin Gordon, Gurley is a player teams could consider in the bottom half of the first round. No running back was selected in the first round in 2013 or 2014.

"Just going in there, meeting with them, doing the interviews, having that first impression and just showing them my football intelligence off the field," Gurley said of his approach to the combine. "I can't do anything, performance-wise. Right now it's just letting them know me as a person and just showing them what I?can do on the field with my brain."

There are doubts about Gurley's durability that stretch beyond his season-ending knee injury. He turns 21 in August, but his iron-shoulders running style and contact-seeking persona on the field create some natural doubts about his shelf life in the NFL. He rushed for 911 yards in six games last season; 989 yards in 10 games in 2013 -- missing three games with an ankle injury -- and a Georgia freshman-record 1,385 yards in 2012.

Gurley can point to two well-known cases for encouragement during rehab.

Miami (Fla.) running back Willis McGahee was a first-round pick in 2003 despite tearing three knee ligaments in the 2003 national championship game.

Adrian Peterson tore multiple knee ligaments on Christmas Eve 2011, then returned to claim the MVP award with 2,097 rushing yards.

"That definitely motivates you, but I'm definitely not Adrian Peterson," Gurley said. "I?mean, that guy is a freak of nature. But my goal is to be a freak of nature as well and try to get back as fast as possible. But I'm not going to rush anything."
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Rotoworld:

According to Dr. James Andrews, physicians at the Combine who looked at Georgia RB Todd Gurley's knee are "all happy about what they saw."

Gurley is only 3 1/2 months removed from ACL surgery, so he understandably didn't allow full examinations. Andrews says the draft's best back is "probably six weeks ahead with his recovery," and is aided by the fact that there was no damage inside his knee other than the clean ACL tear. One team doctor told ESPN's Chris Mortensen that Gurley should be ready to "fully play the game" nine months after surgery, which puts him on track for the NFL preseason. Straightforward ACL repairs become less of a long-term concern for world-class athletes every year.

Source: ESPN.com
Feb 22 - 8:14 AM
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Kind of hoping he disappoints compared to expectations when he does show what he can do, now that Gordon didn't necessarily elevate himself after his combine performance. That way I can get him even cheaper.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Zyphros said:
Kind of hoping he disappoints compared to expectations when he does show what he can do, now that Gordon didn't necessarily elevate himself after his combine performance. That way I can get him even cheaper.
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Agreed. With all the WRs performing well and dynasty owners feeling more comfortable building through WR, he could certainly slip in many leagues.

 
Rotoworld:

Todd Gurley - RB - Bulldogs

An NFL scout told the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel that Georgia RB Todd Gurley is "a top-10 talent, but he could easily go outside the first round because there's a lot of backs in this draft."

"You're talking about a running back that you will never see run (the 40)," said the scout. "You know he's fast. You see it on film. The second combine (medical) recheck will be very important for him." The 6-foot-1, 236-pounder suffered a torn ACL on Nov. 15, but might be ready by Week 1. "That guy is good," said another scout. "He's a man among boys. If you're a deep team why wouldn't you take a bona fide Pro Bowl back and just shelve him?" Not a bad idea. Gurley won't even turn 21 until August.

Source: Milwaukee Journal Sentinel

Mar 1 - 11:29 PM
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Rotoworld:

NFL Media analyst Bucky Brooks believes that teams are willing to gamble on Georgia RB Todd Gurley's "talent and potential despite his lengthy recovery from a serious knee injury."
"It is uncommon for a big back to display explosive pitter-pat in the hole while also flashing strong hands and superb ball skills. As a result, teams are willing to gamble on Gurley's talent and potential despite his lengthy recovery from a serious knee injury -- if he gets a positive review at the combine recheck. That could alleviate concerns about his availability in 2015," Brooks wrote. The 6-foot-1, 236-pound Gurley is an intriguing prospect, who brings an amazing combination of size, speed, and physicality to the table. If teams like what they see in his medical report, Gurley should hear his name called in the back end of the first-round.

Source: NFL.com
Mar 2 - 4:21 PM
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I could see Houston taking him. he's an n+1 player and that's Gaine's philosophy.

 
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I keep hearing (on various podcasts) that teams would be okay drafting him and letting him sit out for a year. But I also keep hearing he should be 100% by preseason. I mean I don't expect teams to give him the rock 15-20 times a game off the bat but is he any threat to sit?

 
Rotoworld:

Based purely on tape study, NFL Films' Greg Cosell believes Georgia RB Todd Gurley is "the best back in the draft."

We agree wholeheartedly. "I like Gurley more (than Melvin Gordon)," Cosell said. "Gurley, to me, has elements of Steven Jackson in his prime and Marshawn Lynch. He's that kind of runner. He's got an excellent combination of size, power, short-area quickness and burst, and top-end acceleration. I like Gurley a lot. And he looks like an NFL foundation back. I think he can be the starting point of an NFL offense." If Gurley's ACL looks recovered at next month's Combine medical recheck, he should have a chance to be a first-round pick.

Source: Midday 180 Nashville
Mar 4 - 9:29 PM
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jurb26 said:
Faust said:
Report: Todd Gurley not letting NFL teams examine his knee

Excerpt:

Here's one interesting theory: What if Gurley wants to fall in the draft? Not allowing teams to look at his knee would mean a probable fall in the draft, potentially into the second round.

That usually wouldn't be something a player chased, but because of the new CBA rules, Gurley would only have a four-year contract without a fifth-year option. He'd end up hitting free agency a year earlier as a result and wouldn't have to worry about the price of a late-round fifth-year option.
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This is the kind of ridiculous speculation that makes this time of year a headache. It's laughably bad.
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he said it was a theory. im glad people dont get ridiculed for providing theory's.

 
VarsityBlues123 said:
jurb26 said:
Faust said:
Report: Todd Gurley not letting NFL teams examine his knee

Excerpt:

Here's one interesting theory: What if Gurley wants to fall in the draft? Not allowing teams to look at his knee would mean a probable fall in the draft, potentially into the second round.

That usually wouldn't be something a player chased, but because of the new CBA rules, Gurley would only have a four-year contract without a fifth-year option. He'd end up hitting free agency a year earlier as a result and wouldn't have to worry about the price of a late-round fifth-year option.
Click to expand...
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This is the kind of ridiculous speculation that makes this time of year a headache. It's laughably bad.
Click to expand...
he said it was a theory. im glad people dont get ridiculed for providing theory's.
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I wish more people would ridicule terrible reaches of speculation.
 
Rotoworld:

Todd Gurley - RB - Bulldogs

ESPN Eagles reporter Phil Sheridan believes Georgia RB Todd Gurley could interest Philadelphia if the team doesn't fill LeSean McCoy's absence in free agency.

"Gurley might have been the No. 1 back in the draft if he hadn’t torn his ACL," Sheridan wrote. "That injury might make him available to the Eagles. Gurley is the kind of downhill runner the Eagles might be looking for to fill McCoy's shoes." Other potential draft targets, according to the beat writer, are T.J. Yeldon of Alabama and Ameer Abdullah of Nebraska.

Source: ESPN.com

Mar 7 - 9:53 PM
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are people really afraid of an ACL? Really not a longterm issue at all in todays climate. he didn't tear his whole knee up, it was a clean ACL tear, shouldn't be an issue at all.

He's the clear #1 RB IMO, and it's not close.

 
are people really afraid of an ACL?
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I am.

I do not think it is wise to just put your head in the sand and ignore the risk that comes with an ACL injury. Particularly for a RB.

I have read quite a bit about ACL injuries in recent years and a ton about them when Adrian Peterson had his ACL injury. It would be a mistake to consider Petersons recovery normal or to use his recovery as the example one should expect for all players who have this injury.

Here is a list of NFL RB who have had ACL injuries.

KiJana Carter
Ickey Woods
Robert Edwards
Napolean McCallum
Kevin Smith
Deuce McAllister
Priest Holmes - injured in college went undrafted
Ronnie Brown
Jamal Lewis
Edgerrin James
Terrell Davis
Marcus Lattimore
Olandis Gary
Carnell Williams (also had torn Pattela which is worse than ACL)
Garrison Hearst
Tshimanga Biakabatuka
Jamal Anderson
Rashard Mendenhall
Willis McGahee
Jamal Charles
Adrian Peterson
Without question there are many more than this who have had the injury. The outcomes and recovery times for these players are not the same. Each injury and each player are different.

Here is a study done on RB who have had the injury from 1998 to 2002.

Data were analyzed for 31 running backs and wide receivers with 33 anterior cruciate ligament injuries. More than one fifth of players never returned to a National Football League game. Returning players first competed in a game 55.8 ± 5.4 weeks (mean ± standard error) after injury. For the 24 anterior cruciate ligament–injured players with a minimum total power rating (sum of all 7 seasons) of 200 points, power rating per game played decreased from 9.9 ± 1.1 preinjury to 6.5 ± 0.9 postinjury. This decline in power rating per game played was statistically significant (P = .002) when compared with the change for the 146 control players.

Conclusion: Nearly four fifths of National Football League running backs and wide receivers who sustain an anterior cruciate ligament injury return to play in a game. On return to competition, player performance of injured players is reduced by one third.
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For the time frame of recovery cited above that is 391 days after the injury +/- 38 days before they completed a game.

Todd Gurley was injured Nov 16 2014

Best case scenario from above data would be 353 days which means possible return for Gurley in Novemeber 2015 or half way into the season.

We do not know how Gurley will recover from his injury or how soon. No one knows that. To pretend this should not be a concern is willfully ignorant.

I do not expect to have more information about this until after the NFL draft.

If Gurley is a 1st round pick that would be a very positive sign indicating the positive outlook of the team who drafts him in regards to his recovery. If he isn't drafted until the second round or later then that would indicate some doubt about his recovery and return to play in 2015.

The younger the player is when they have this injury the better their chances for a full recovery are. Gurley is 21 years old so this is certainly a positive in his favor.

NFL teams know MUCH more about this than any of us do. This is silly season. I do not have confidence in speculation or reports regarding this leading up to the NFL draft because teams and agents will say all kinds of things during this time that are not grounded in truth.

Dr Andrews has said that Gurleys recovery is ahead of schedule during the NFL combine. So that could be considered a positive sign.

Here are some other articles talking about this issue.

The Nastiest Injury in Sports

How ACL Tears Hamper NFL Running Backs

Draft preview: Knee injuries alter RB draft values

Another point of view regarding Gurley was presented to me that why should dynasty owners care if Gurley is not able to play, or to play well in his rookie season.

In an attempt to answer this question I began a study of RB performance from 1989-2014 in this thread.

What I found is that RB entering the league at age 21 have above average career performance compared to ones who come into the league at age 22-24. So this is a good sign for Gurley.

However using this sample size which only looks at the best of the best RB performance over this time frame, the average number of good seasons for this RB group was 2.38

Even if Todd Gurley becomes the best of the best of the best he still stands to lose 20% of his good seasons in the NFL if he is not able to play at a high level in his rookie season. Which at this point of time, at least for me is in doubt.

 
Biabreakable said:
are people really afraid of an ACL?
Click to expand...
I am.

I do not think it is wise to just put your head in the sand and ignore the risk that comes with an ACL injury. Particularly for a RB.

I have read quite a bit about ACL injuries in recent years and a ton about them when Adrian Peterson had his ACL injury. It would be a mistake to consider Petersons recovery normal or to use his recovery as the example one should expect for all players who have this injury.

Here is a list of NFL RB who have had ACL injuries.

KiJana Carter
Ickey Woods
Robert Edwards
Napolean McCallum
Kevin Smith
Deuce McAllister
Priest Holmes - injured in college went undrafted
Ronnie Brown
Jamal Lewis
Edgerrin James
Terrell Davis
Marcus Lattimore
Olandis Gary
Carnell Williams (also had torn Pattela which is worse than ACL)
Garrison Hearst
Tshimanga Biakabatuka
Jamal Anderson
Rashard Mendenhall
Willis McGahee
Jamal Charles
Adrian Peterson
Without question there are many more than this who have had the injury. The outcomes and recovery times for these players are not the same. Each injury and each player are different.

Here is a study done on RB who have had the injury from 1998 to 2002.

Data were analyzed for 31 running backs and wide receivers with 33 anterior cruciate ligament injuries. More than one fifth of players never returned to a National Football League game. Returning players first competed in a game 55.8 ± 5.4 weeks (mean ± standard error) after injury. For the 24 anterior cruciate ligament–injured players with a minimum total power rating (sum of all 7 seasons) of 200 points, power rating per game played decreased from 9.9 ± 1.1 preinjury to 6.5 ± 0.9 postinjury. This decline in power rating per game played was statistically significant (P = .002) when compared with the change for the 146 control players.

Conclusion: Nearly four fifths of National Football League running backs and wide receivers who sustain an anterior cruciate ligament injury return to play in a game. On return to competition, player performance of injured players is reduced by one third.
Click to expand...
For the time frame of recovery cited above that is 391 days after the injury +/- 38 days before they completed a game.

Todd Gurley was injured Nov 16 2014

Best case scenario from above data would be 353 days which means possible return for Gurley in Novemeber 2015 or half way into the season.

We do not know how Gurley will recover from his injury or how soon. No one knows that. To pretend this should not be a concern is willfully ignorant.

I do not expect to have more information about this until after the NFL draft.

If Gurley is a 1st round pick that would be a very positive sign indicating the positive outlook of the team who drafts him in regards to his recovery. If he isn't drafted until the second round or later then that would indicate some doubt about his recovery and return to play in 2015.

The younger the player is when they have this injury the better their chances for a full recovery are. Gurley is 21 years old so this is certainly a positive in his favor.

NFL teams know MUCH more about this than any of us do. This is silly season. I do not have confidence in speculation or reports regarding this leading up to the NFL draft because teams and agents will say all kinds of things during this time that are not grounded in truth.

Dr Andrews has said that Gurleys recovery is ahead of schedule during the NFL combine. So that could be considered a positive sign.

Here are some other articles talking about this issue.

The Nastiest Injury in Sports

How ACL Tears Hamper NFL Running Backs

Draft preview: Knee injuries alter RB draft values

Another point of view regarding Gurley was presented to me that why should dynasty owners care if Gurley is not able to play, or to play well in his rookie season.

In an attempt to answer this question I began a study of RB performance from 1989-2014 in this thread.

What I found is that RB entering the league at age 21 have above average career performance compared to ones who come into the league at age 22-24. So this is a good sign for Gurley.

However using this sample size which only looks at the best of the best RB performance over this time frame, the average number of good seasons for this RB group was 2.38

Even if Todd Gurley becomes the best of the best of the best he still stands to lose 20% of his good seasons in the NFL if he is not able to play at a high level in his rookie season. Which at this point of time, at least for me is in doubt.
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damn, very good post. making me rethink things.

 
Biabreakable said:
are people really afraid of an ACL?
Click to expand...
I am.

I do not think it is wise to just put your head in the sand and ignore the risk that comes with an ACL injury. Particularly for a RB.

I have read quite a bit about ACL injuries in recent years and a ton about them when Adrian Peterson had his ACL injury. It would be a mistake to consider Petersons recovery normal or to use his recovery as the example one should expect for all players who have this injury.

Here is a list of NFL RB who have had ACL injuries.

KiJana Carter
Ickey Woods
Robert Edwards
Napolean McCallum
Kevin Smith
Deuce McAllister
Priest Holmes - injured in college went undrafted
Ronnie Brown
Jamal Lewis
Edgerrin James
Terrell Davis
Marcus Lattimore
Olandis Gary
Carnell Williams (also had torn Pattela which is worse than ACL)
Garrison Hearst
Tshimanga Biakabatuka
Jamal Anderson
Rashard Mendenhall
Willis McGahee
Jamal Charles
Adrian Peterson
Without question there are many more than this who have had the injury. The outcomes and recovery times for these players are not the same. Each injury and each player are different.

Here is a study done on RB who have had the injury from 1998 to 2002.

Data were analyzed for 31 running backs and wide receivers with 33 anterior cruciate ligament injuries. More than one fifth of players never returned to a National Football League game. Returning players first competed in a game 55.8 ± 5.4 weeks (mean ± standard error) after injury. For the 24 anterior cruciate ligament–injured players with a minimum total power rating (sum of all 7 seasons) of 200 points, power rating per game played decreased from 9.9 ± 1.1 preinjury to 6.5 ± 0.9 postinjury. This decline in power rating per game played was statistically significant (P = .002) when compared with the change for the 146 control players.

Conclusion: Nearly four fifths of National Football League running backs and wide receivers who sustain an anterior cruciate ligament injury return to play in a game. On return to competition, player performance of injured players is reduced by one third.
Click to expand...
For the time frame of recovery cited above that is 391 days after the injury +/- 38 days before they completed a game.

Todd Gurley was injured Nov 16 2014

Best case scenario from above data would be 353 days which means possible return for Gurley in Novemeber 2015 or half way into the season.

We do not know how Gurley will recover from his injury or how soon. No one knows that. To pretend this should not be a concern is willfully ignorant.

I do not expect to have more information about this until after the NFL draft.

If Gurley is a 1st round pick that would be a very positive sign indicating the positive outlook of the team who drafts him in regards to his recovery. If he isn't drafted until the second round or later then that would indicate some doubt about his recovery and return to play in 2015.

The younger the player is when they have this injury the better their chances for a full recovery are. Gurley is 21 years old so this is certainly a positive in his favor.

NFL teams know MUCH more about this than any of us do. This is silly season. I do not have confidence in speculation or reports regarding this leading up to the NFL draft because teams and agents will say all kinds of things during this time that are not grounded in truth.

Dr Andrews has said that Gurleys recovery is ahead of schedule during the NFL combine. So that could be considered a positive sign.

Here are some other articles talking about this issue.

The Nastiest Injury in Sports

How ACL Tears Hamper NFL Running Backs

Draft preview: Knee injuries alter RB draft values

Another point of view regarding Gurley was presented to me that why should dynasty owners care if Gurley is not able to play, or to play well in his rookie season.

In an attempt to answer this question I began a study of RB performance from 1989-2014 in this thread.

What I found is that RB entering the league at age 21 have above average career performance compared to ones who come into the league at age 22-24. So this is a good sign for Gurley.

However using this sample size which only looks at the best of the best RB performance over this time frame, the average number of good seasons for this RB group was 2.38

Even if Todd Gurley becomes the best of the best of the best he still stands to lose 20% of his good seasons in the NFL if he is not able to play at a high level in his rookie season. Which at this point of time, at least for me is in doubt.
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1) Todd Gurley is 20 years old, not 21. Which helps his case.

2) Most of your data is from players in the 1990's-early 2000's...that's irrelevant IMO, heck you even have a player from the 1980's! They've had many advances in how they handle ACL injuries. More relevant players to Gurley's case: AP, Welker, Jay Ajayi, Kiko Alonzo(twice now), Frank Gore(twice), Christine Michael, Rob Gronkowski, Jeremy Maclin, Justin Hunter.

 
Gurley will be 21 years old on August 3rd. Being a younger player means under 24 years old for the purpose of recovering from ACL based on an article I posted in the Marcus Lattimore thread, which I looked for but could not find. Just going off of memory there as far as what young or old cut off might be.

I disagree with the past being irrelevant. I recognize that medicine has advanced but that does not mean that all injuries are now automatically fully recoverable because of recent success of some players.

 
Biabreakable said:
Gurley will be 21 years old on August 3rd. Being a younger player means under 24 years old for the purpose of recovering from ACL based on an article I posted in the Marcus Lattimore thread, which I looked for but could not find. Just going off of memory there as far as what young or old cut off might be.

I disagree with the past being irrelevant. I recognize that medicine has advanced but that does not mean that all injuries are now automatically fully recoverable because of recent success of some players.
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I never said they're automatically fully recoverable. But i'm also not comparing sick people now to when doctors used to bloodletting either.

 
Do you remember how good Edgerrin James was before his ACL injury?

He did recover but he was never as good as he was prior to the injury. He lost something there. That is not easily quantifiable, but this is a possible outcome of a recovered player, that they may lose some of their ability in the process.

I have Todd Gurly ranked 5th as a tier 1a player in my rankings. If he is a 1st round draft pick I will likely move him to 3rd or possibly even 1st overall in that top tier of players based on his talent. But I will not move him any higher until I get NFL draft confirmation in regards to his recovery. If Gurley isn't drafted until the second round or later he will most likely remain in my top 5 but he will not be moving ahead of safer and equal quality of prospects Gordon, Parker, Cooper and White.

I recognize that people want thinks to be simple. From a talent evaluation perspective alone many consider Gurley to be a no brainer top prospect of the 2015 draft. I don't even disagree with that. I think he looks like a great prospect.

But it isn't a no brainer for me and I don't think it should be for other people because of Adrian Peterson's miraculous recovery. What Peterson did should not be the basis of evaluating ACL injuries.

I think people are so invested in Gurley, in a variety of ways, that they just do not want to hear any talk about risk concerning him. So I take the unpopular position of saying there is risk that prospective Gurley owners should consider when making a investment in him.

 
Biabreakable said:
Gurley will be 21 years old on August 3rd. Being a younger player means under 24 years old for the purpose of recovering from ACL based on an article I posted in the Marcus Lattimore thread, which I looked for but could not find. Just going off of memory there as far as what young or old cut off might be.

I disagree with the past being irrelevant. I recognize that medicine has advanced but that does not mean that all injuries are now automatically fully recoverable because of recent success of some players.
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The past isn't irrelevant but your examples pretty much are. Tdmills provided a list of more recent and better examples. Really, a study that ends in 2002? That's 13 years ago. It's a pretty terrible correlation.
 
I'm sick of being told what is relevant or irrelevant based on selective bias. I have been told I have recency bias about Gurley's injury because it happened so recently.

Some people just want to put their fingers in their ears and will only hear what they want to hear in regards to him. That certainly is your prerogative. I choose to not do that and factor what I consider to be very real risk into my evaluation.

 
Biabreakable said:
I'm sick of being told what is relevant or irrelevant based on selective bias. I have been told I have recency bias about Gurley's injury because it happened so recently.

Some people just want to put their fingers in their ears and will only hear what they want to hear in regards to him. That certainly is your prerogative. I choose to not do that and factor what I consider to be very real risk into my evaluation.
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You seem to have a prerogative by continually bringing up examples from way too long ago and ignoring recent examples that don't align with what seems to be a preconceived notion you have. How does Edge James provided better context than Petterson or Charles? Studies from 15 years ago? This stuff has little relevance.

 
tdmills said:
The Eagles just traded away Shady McCoy for Kiko Alonzo....he tore his ACL in 2011 and in 2014. Explain that.
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What am I supposed to explain? I don't even understand your point other than the players both have had ACL injuries. They don't play the same position.

There are many different reasons for the trade they made. Just as there are different reasons why teams might pass on Gurley in the NFL draft.

If Gurley is not a 1st round pick are your going to say that all 32 teams were wrong to pass on him because of recent medical advances?

 
jurb26 said:
Biabreakable said:
I'm sick of being told what is relevant or irrelevant based on selective bias. I have been told I have recency bias about Gurley's injury because it happened so recently.

Some people just want to put their fingers in their ears and will only hear what they want to hear in regards to him. That certainly is your prerogative. I choose to not do that and factor what I consider to be very real risk into my evaluation.
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You seem to have a prerogative by continually bringing up examples from way too long ago and ignoring recent examples that don't align with what seems to be a preconceived notion you have. How does Edge James provided better context than Petterson or Charles? Studies from 15 years ago? This stuff has little relevance.
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I'd argue no relevance, to be honest.

 
Biabreakable said:
tdmills said:
The Eagles just traded away Shady McCoy for Kiko Alonzo....he tore his ACL in 2011 and in 2014. Explain that.
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What am I supposed to explain? I don't even understand your point other than the players both have had ACL injuries. They don't play the same position.

There are many different reasons for the trade they made. Just as there are different reasons why teams might pass on Gurley in the NFL draft.

If Gurley is not a 1st round pick are your going to say that all 32 teams were wrong to pass on him because of recent medical advances?
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You're clearly defensive and feel backed into a corner...not sure why.

I'm simply pointing out the Eagles had no reservations gambling on a player that just tore his ACL. If it were still a career killer, they would've just got a draft pick/another player.

 
So it isn't relevant that players in the past have had ACL injuries that they never fully recovered from? Because it wasn't in the last 5 years?

The point that players such as Edge did recover but were not the same player they once were. This is a possibility that I do not think should be ignored.

 
tdmills said:
Biabreakable said:
tdmills said:
The Eagles just traded away Shady McCoy for Kiko Alonzo....he tore his ACL in 2011 and in 2014. Explain that.
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What am I supposed to explain? I don't even understand your point other than the players both have had ACL injuries. They don't play the same position.

There are many different reasons for the trade they made. Just as there are different reasons why teams might pass on Gurley in the NFL draft.

If Gurley is not a 1st round pick are your going to say that all 32 teams were wrong to pass on him because of recent medical advances?
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You're clearly defensive and feel backed into a corner...not sure why.

I'm simply pointing out the Eagles had no reservations gambling on a player that just tore his ACL. If it were still a career killer, they would've just got a draft pick/another player.
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I think the language such as irrelevlant, overblown ect. is defensive. I am a bit offended by statements like that. It isn't open minded.

Obviously Chip Kelly wanted Kiko Alonso. Perhaps this is the best offer they received? I don't know what other options they had.

The reason they traded McCoy had more to do with unloading his salary and because of personal differences between McCoy and Kelly

Obviously they think Alonso will be healthy enough to contribute to their team. But as I have already stated, no two players are the same nor are their injuries the same. Each one is a unique situation.

 
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NFL players find not all knee injuries, recovery periods are alike

Despite the remarkable recovery of Minnesota Vikings running back Adrian Peterson two years ago, not every player rehabbing from a knee injury will be back on the field in eight months.

NFL Network Health and Safety Chief Correspondent Andrea Kremer said while there is no cookie-cutter timetable for bouncing back from ACL injuries, some NFL players believe they are not 100 percent back from knee surgeries until as many as three seasons after the injury.

"Every body is different," Kremer said Thursday on "NFL Total Access." "Every knee heals differently. And every ACL injury is unique because there is different amounts of damage that has been sustained to the knee."

Last year, Kremer chronicled Darrelle Revis' comeback from a major knee injury. She noted that for many NFL players their knee is stronger the second season after the surgery.

"Revis made the Pro Bowl last year, but he'd be the first to tell you that it's this upcoming season that the 'Island' will be officially open for business," she said. "And there are equally high expectations for (Robert Griffin III) for this upcoming season."

Arizona Cardinals quarterback Carson Palmer, who came back from an ACL tear during a 2006 playoff game with the Cincinnati Bengals, said it's tough enough preparing for the season healthy.

"To add a surgery like that, it's just a long, long grind," Palmer said. "You go through so many different emotions and so many physical struggles."

Famed orthopedic surgeon Dr. James Andrews said the athlete may not always understand how severe the injury can be. He said it may take more than a year for some athletes to get the strength back in their quads alone.

A 2010 study found that one third of the players who suffered an ACL injury did not return to the NFL after the surgery. The ones who made it back needed an average of 11 months of recovery before playing again.

"I think the first season back is just scary," said Palmer, who thinks recovery can take as much as three seasons. "You're told that it will hold up and you're told that it's ready, but until you get onto the field, and get hit low a couple times ... until that happens, you don't really know that it is completely healed.

" ... I thought that I would get that same push-off, that same drive. The truth of the matter is, you'll never to get to exactly where that knee was before it was cut open and things were moved around."

Also, Kremer said studies show that there is a 5-6 percent chance of a recurrent injury to the same knee within two years.
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I don't think many people here have zero concerns regarding an ACL recovery. That said, they're arguing that studies concluded 15 years ago and examples of player recoveries from that timeframe are largely irrelevant. The surgery and recovery are night and day different today. No risk? Absolutely not. Magnitudes less? Absolutely.

I have no idea what the odds are that Gurley recovers to ore-ACL form, but they're a lot better than they were 29, 10, or even 5 years ago.

 
What evidence do you have that supports ACL injuries that happened 10 years ago are irrelevant? Even five years ago you say?? SayWhat? How do you define what time frame is relevant here?

I hope you stayed at a Holiday Inn at least making such claims that I doubt any doctor would agree with or support.

Here is some more evidence for you all to chew on (but more than likely dismiss):

Running Back Two Year Major Injury Rule

NFL ACL Epidemic - Will this Season Be Any Differentt?

According to a 2014 poll conducted by USA Today, of the 293 NFL players surveyed, 46% said they are more concerned about knee & ACL injuries versus concussion (26%). Why is that? According to the players, they see knee injuries as the career ending injury and lost earning potential. Although concussions may have long term effects, most know what the research shows about ability to return to sport after an ACL reconstruction.
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According to the research, only 63-69% of college football players return to sport following an ACL reconstruction and only 43% of them return to the same level. Unfortunately, 77% report a “sports disability” in 5 years. Whether that disability is lack of agility, lack of speed or confidence on the involved side, the fact remains that 5 years post, a majority of players still feel limited. The research also shows us that 20% will have a 2nd ACL injury in 2 years and 79% will have osteoarthritis in 12 years. So considering all the research, it is no wonder that players are concerned about ACL injuries. But, are these preventable?
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