[DYNASTY] Top 24 Rookies (1 Viewer)

[EBF]

EBF, Here's a couple posts of yours from late March regarding Chris Johnson. It seemed that you were pretty high on him, but what's changed so much in a month that you're now ranking him down at #17? I think where LenDale fails, Chris Johnson will succeed in taking advantage of the rushing lanes created by having a threat at QB like Young. I see the Titans being much more creative on offense with Johnson as the center piece being that they don't have many other weapons besides Vince. I'm struggline to imagine a scenario where Chris Johnson isn't at least used in a similar fashion to Reggie Bush, and Bush has finished 24th and 17th the past two seasons in FBG standard scoring. What soured you on his prospects over the past month?

I've gone back and forth on Johnson throughout the process. He's a tough player to evaluate because he's so unconventional. It's not very often that you see a sub 200 pound back get drafted in the first round. In fact, I can't think of another since Warrick Dunn. You make some good points and I actually agree that he's destined for a big role in the Titans offense. I guess my skepticism stems primarily from my belief that he'll never be a true starter in the NFL. Yes, he's dynamic and yes he'll make a lot of catches, but look up and down the list of the top 30 backs in your FF league. How many of those guys weigh under 205 pounds? The RB position is dominated by 210-235 pound tanks. By and large, those are the guys who claim major roles and yield huge FF returns. Johnson doesn't really fit the bill since he's so small. He's more of a slash RB/WR hybrid than a true featured back. In a PPR, I like his value and would take him in the top 10. He doesn't excite me in other formats. That might seem like hypocrisy given my high rankings of Felix and Rice. I've laid out reasons why I think those guys might be different. Felix is ten pounds heavier and an inch shorter. Rice is three pounds heavier and three inches shorter. Those guys just barely slide under the size requirements wire whereas Johnson falls short. With all that said, you can justify taking Johnson in the 7-10 range with Forte and Smith if you're a fan of his skills.

 

[moderated]

Ouch on the Malcolm Kelly ranking.On youtube clips they show some plays where he looks "fast", but in watching ok games over the past few years he doesn't look fast at all. I'd call his speed adequate at best and very slow when compared to NFL playing speeds. He looks fast vs marginal competition, but in the NFL 100% of corners are going to be much quicker/faster then him.

That plus the other negatives (attitude, knees) make him WAY too big of a risk drafting that high.

I know you used the Jarrett comparison and stated that Jarrett's playing speed wasn't as fast which i don't think is true at all, but he actually reminds me more of Mike Williams.

I'll be shocked if Kelly ever becomes a solid FF WR. Just way too many risks with him and the reward isn't high enough for a big/slow WR to be valuing him so high.

Overall love the list, but I think you over-rate the youtube phenom Malcolm Kelly a ton, especially when taking into account his character/knee issues.

To a certain extent, "big/slow" receivers are dominating the hobby right now. Braylon Edwards, Larry Fitzgerald, Brandon Marshall, Marques Colston, Anquan Boldin, and Terrell Owens aren't going to win many sprints against the average pro corner, but put them in pads and they dominate because they're big, physical, talented, and fast for their size. Kelly ran slower times than most if not all of those guys, but I still think he has comparable upside.

He's built a lot more solid than Dwayne Jarrett. I went back and watched some old clips of Jarrett recently to prepare for a draft. His playing speed just isn't very good. Kelly is a lot faster off the line. Mike Williams is a different beast entirely. Too big-bodied and heavy. There was even talk of some NFL teams evaluating him as a TE prospect and not a WR. I haven't heard any of that chatter about Kelly. Kelly is built lean and muscular with the ideal build for a tall receiver.

It's not like I'm on an island here. NFL.com is fairly effusive about him:

.Big-time playmaker who is a threat to score every time he touches the ball and must be accounted for at all times...Tough receiver who isn't afraid to take a hit...Has very large, natural hands with decent deep speed (more quick than fast), as his long legs and running stride let him consistently eat up the cushion and get behind the defensive back...Has the outstanding ability to change direction in an instant, doing a good job of adjusting his body to off-target tosses...Combines good strength and burst to beat the jam and elude tacklers...Displays the natural ability to catch with his hands extended outside the frame...Aggressive cut blocker who won't back down and thrives when he gets the ball in pressure situations...Fights for the ball along the sideline, keeping his feet inbounds...Has super quickness off the snap and into his routes, showing good precision in his breaks...Might lack explosion, but he comes off the line with good power and finesse, as he stays under control through his patterns, running sharp, crisp routes and using his strength and size to bust through the jam...Can gain ground and separate in space...Shows no wasted movement, as he is effective at dropping his weight getting into his patterns, which is surprising to see as most tall receivers don't have the fluid hips or elusiveness that Kelly displays...

Tom Marino is one of the top draft analysts for scout.com. According to their website, he has over 35 years of experience in the field. He has Kelly ranked as the top WR available and his opinions echo my own:

1. Malcolm Kelly, WR, Oklahoma40: 4.66v Ht: 6036v Wt: 227v Rating: 1.155

Impressive looking player with excellent hands, body control & ability to adjust to the ball. Catches equally well on or off his person. Uses size to effectively shield defender on under routes or in the red zone. Has the athletic ability & strength to avoid the hold up and the speed to climb a defender on his open releases. Liked ability to snatch the ball away from his body. Should factor quickly as an inside receiver & develop into a frontline player.

No amount of scouting reports can prove Kelly is legit. He definitely seems to have his fans though.

Funny that you mention YouTube. I think Kelly's clips on there do him justice and show him as more than just another big, slow WR.

2007:

My main disagreement with your ranking is that you are almost completely ignoring some of his issues and not incorporating them into the ranking. Character issues are huge red flags along with the knee issues, if these issues weren't of any concern he wouldn't have fallen into the late 2nd round.

I think your looking only at his positives and not taking into account the negatives, thus giving him an inflated ranking.

So yes, in he was a guy who had no other major concerns then i could understand your ranking (although if he didn't have those other issues he also would have went higher in the NFL draft), but taking into consideration the "complete" package i think he's horrid value that high in a rookie draft.

I'd be shocked if you actually drafted him that high in your rookie drafts.

 

[EBF]

My main disagreement with your ranking is that you are almost completely ignoring some of his issues and not incorporating them into the ranking. Character issues are huge red flags along with the knee issues, if these issues weren't of any concern he wouldn't have fallen into the late 2nd round.I think your looking only at his positives and not taking into account the negatives, thus giving him an inflated ranking.So yes, in he was a guy who had no other major concerns then i could understand your ranking (although if he didn't have those other issues he also would have went higher in the NFL draft), but taking into consideration the "complete" package i think he's horrid value that high in a rookie draft.I'd be shocked if you actually drafted him that high in your rookie drafts.

I don't consider any of the players ranked below Kelly surefire impact players for FF leagues. Sweed, Thomas, Avery, Nelson, Kelly, Forte, and company are all risky in their own right. Personally, I'd rather roll the dice on Kelly because I have more faith in his talent. I wouldn't take him 1.06 in a rookie draft though because I know I could trade down to 10-13 and still get him.

 

[moderated]

My main disagreement with your ranking is that you are almost completely ignoring some of his issues and not incorporating them into the ranking. Character issues are huge red flags along with the knee issues, if these issues weren't of any concern he wouldn't have fallen into the late 2nd round.I think your looking only at his positives and not taking into account the negatives, thus giving him an inflated ranking.So yes, in he was a guy who had no other major concerns then i could understand your ranking (although if he didn't have those other issues he also would have went higher in the NFL draft), but taking into consideration the "complete" package i think he's horrid value that high in a rookie draft.I'd be shocked if you actually drafted him that high in your rookie drafts.

I don't consider any of the players ranked below Kelly surefire impact players for FF leagues. Sweed, Thomas, Avery, Nelson, Kelly, Forte, and company are all risky in their own right. Personally, I'd rather roll the dice on Kelly because I have more faith in his talent. I wouldn't take him 1.06 in a rookie draft though because I know I could trade down to 10-13 and still get him.

ok, fair enough. I've been wrong before but have watched a lot of Kelly and thought he was grossly over-rated even before the Knee/character concern issues came up.We'll see what happens with him, my money is that he'll never break 1,000 yards receiving in his career.

 

[One]

Great Job EBF.

 

[jurb26]

I loved Stewart heading into the draft from a physical ability stand point. I hate where he ended up. We have been hearing for years that Car was going reestablish their ground game. It simply hasn't happened. It hasn't happened because this team has shown a propensity over the last few years of mismanaging RBs. On top of that, they are veteran loyal to a fault it seems. I think anyone who expects anything less than a RBBC in Car this year is fooling themselves. I do agree with you on one thing. Stewart looks like a risk to end up on the disabled list. He was absolutely riddled with injuries in college.

Are you a D-Will fan? It almost sounds like it. I really think Stewart fits what Fox is looking for and I expect him to get 250-300 carries next season. Williams will be the situational Chester Taylor type back here.

Umm, no. If you haven't realized this yet, I am simply not a fan of any Car RBs. It's funny you say that Williams will play the Chester Taylor role. Well, Taylor stole 157 carries away from Peterson last year and Peterson did not get 250-300 carries. I would also expect that Williams, like Taylor, will see the majority of the receptions out of the backfield. So, you've pretty much agreed with me. This will be a RBBC the only difference is Car RBBC /= Minn RBBC and Car rushing success /= Minn rushing success.

We'll see. If I had to bet today, I would say Stewart will lead all rookies in rushing yards this year. At any rate, I don't see Carolina as a bad spot for him at all. Stephen Davis had a lot of success there under Fox. Stewart is a more versatile talent than Davis with a much higher ceiling.

Davis' success was 5 years ago. Things are a bit different now. I'd project Stewart's carries in the 190-230 range. Williams in the 140-160 range just like last year. I don't think Stewart will be in the top 3 of rookie rushers this year unless Williams gets hurt and he is forced into a much larger role.

Fair enough. I think a lot of people missed out on the FF impact of Marshawn Lynch and Adrian Peterson because they exaggerated the roles Anthony Thomas and Chester Taylor would play for those teams. I think Stewart will immediately be called on as the workhorse back for the Panthers with DeAngelo playing the change of pace role and I think he'll probably be a quality RB2 in FF leagues if he's healthy and ready to go. We'll have to wait and see.

I really have no idea who you could be talking about in regards to Lynch. From what I recall everyone slated him as the surest of all rookie RBs to be featured. As for Peterson, I don't think people were wrong about Taylor stealing touches. Taylor had 186 touches and Peterson 257. That is a about what most people seemed to think going in. Peterson (and Taylor as a matter of fact) simply did far more with those touches than anyone could have ever expected. Almost 6 yds a carry and 13 TDs.

 

[EBF]

I really have no idea who you could be talking about in regards to Lynch. From what I recall everyone slated him as the surest of all rookie RBs to be featured. As for Peterson, I don't think people were wrong about Taylor stealing touches. Taylor had 186 touches and Peterson 257. That is a about what most people seemed to think going in. Peterson (and Taylor as a matter of fact) simply did far more with those touches than anyone could have ever expected. Almost 6 yds a carry and 13 TDs.

I don't want to venture too far off on this tangent since it's mostly irrelevant to the topic at hand. This will be my final post on the subject.Merely counting the touches for Taylor and Peterson doesn't tell the whole story since Chester got over one third of his carries in the two games that ADP missed due to injury. Prior to the injury Peterson was averaging 18 touches per game to Chester's 9 touches per game in games in which both players were healthy. That's a 2:1 ratio. Much greater than the 1.38:1 ratio your figures imply. A LOT of people missed the boat on ADP last year because they thought Chester would steal too many touches to make ADP valuable. Saying otherwise is just revisionist history. As for Lynch, I'd once again suggest that hindsight has altered your perception of the situation. There were actually quite a few people who really thought A-Train would cut into his production. There was even a lot of talk building up to the season that Lynch was going to be a bust.

 

[Poppa]

 

[Bizkiteer]

EBF, great job I always look to see what you have to say.What's your take on the Rams WR situation. Do you think Burton has a chance to beat out and make more of an impact than Avery? He seems to have enough ability to make some noise.

Anything is possible, but I expect Avery to get on the field faster than Burton. Avery has blazing speed and great athletic ability. He'll instantly be a threat out of the slot. Burton is a decent long term prospect though. He's fairly athletic and extremely tough for his size. I read that people were marveling over his x-rays at the combine because he had broken so many different bones throughout his career. That's both a positive and a negative. The guy is a scrappy competitor who can play through pain, but he's built a lot thinner than the usual "power" WR and he won't be able to mandhandle NFL defeners. He has potential to emerge as a starter 2-3 years from now, but he should probably be viewed as a longshot rather than a guy who's destined to make an impact.

Burton's play alone would have earned him a late 2nd/early 3rd spot, but its that injury history that knocked him down to the fourth.

Bloom,If you had to label Burton with a comparison of another WR in the NFL, who would it be?

 

[Bizkiteer]

Paging Mr. Bloom...paging Mr. Bloom!

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

EBF, great job I always look to see what you have to say.What's your take on the Rams WR situation. Do you think Burton has a chance to beat out and make more of an impact than Avery? He seems to have enough ability to make some noise.

Anything is possible, but I expect Avery to get on the field faster than Burton. Avery has blazing speed and great athletic ability. He'll instantly be a threat out of the slot. Burton is a decent long term prospect though. He's fairly athletic and extremely tough for his size. I read that people were marveling over his x-rays at the combine because he had broken so many different bones throughout his career. That's both a positive and a negative. The guy is a scrappy competitor who can play through pain, but he's built a lot thinner than the usual "power" WR and he won't be able to mandhandle NFL defeners. He has potential to emerge as a starter 2-3 years from now, but he should probably be viewed as a longshot rather than a guy who's destined to make an impact.

Burton's play alone would have earned him a late 2nd/early 3rd spot, but its that injury history that knocked him down to the fourth.

Bloom,If you had to label Burton with a comparison of another WR in the NFL, who would it be?

Demetrius Williams - slight, good deep ball tracking, good at competing for balls in the air, questions about whether he can hold up physically, long limbed, good rac instincts...

 

[Bizkiteer]

EBF, great job I always look to see what you have to say.What's your take on the Rams WR situation. Do you think Burton has a chance to beat out and make more of an impact than Avery? He seems to have enough ability to make some noise.

Anything is possible, but I expect Avery to get on the field faster than Burton. Avery has blazing speed and great athletic ability. He'll instantly be a threat out of the slot. Burton is a decent long term prospect though. He's fairly athletic and extremely tough for his size. I read that people were marveling over his x-rays at the combine because he had broken so many different bones throughout his career. That's both a positive and a negative. The guy is a scrappy competitor who can play through pain, but he's built a lot thinner than the usual "power" WR and he won't be able to mandhandle NFL defeners. He has potential to emerge as a starter 2-3 years from now, but he should probably be viewed as a longshot rather than a guy who's destined to make an impact.

Burton's play alone would have earned him a late 2nd/early 3rd spot, but its that injury history that knocked him down to the fourth.

Bloom,If you had to label Burton with a comparison of another WR in the NFL, who would it be?

Demetrius Williams - slight, good deep ball tracking, good at competing for balls in the air, questions about whether he can hold up physically, long limbed, good rac instincts...

Thank you sir!

 

[NeverEnough]

Good stuff

 

[Ripleys]

this is the year to trade down in rookie drafts if you want WRs. In one 12 team PPR league I got the following WRs:

2.4 Kelly

2.12 Nelson

3.1 Avery

3.3 Simpson

3.7 Caldwell

I figure if even 2 or 3 of these 5 pan out, that's a great rookie draft for having picks that late in the 2 and 3rd rounds.

 

[Liquid Tension]

I think Mendenhall is being overrated by the FF crowd and I'm a Steelers fan. Yes it is true that Pitt has a good track record with their picks and I too greatly respect players their picks early on. However, Parker is not going away. At best you can look for a RBBC for the 1st 2 years which you seem to acknowledge. The Steelers no longer seem to have that smach mouth, grind it out mentality on offense and they seem to be changing over to a more open passing attack. Furthermore, Pitt is going to have it's worst Oline in many many years this year. I agree that Mendenhall should be in the first tier. However when you have other elite RBs available that are not likely to be in RBBC early on I can't see any way to justify placing him #1. On top of that, I think it is clear that Mendenhall was not the most talented RB in this draft class. If he were, then I could understand the ranking based on pure talent.

I disagree with the comments about the Steelers offense. I think they have had a more wide open offense with more passing because they could not pound the ball 45 times with just Willie Parker...not to mention their sometimes underwhelming defense. The loss of their "smash mouth mentality" was more out of necessity than a change in philosophy in my opinion.

What about losing their LG to the Jets? The OL is as important as the running back when you are talking about getting production out of the running game. I think the Pitt line (and losing Faneca) has been going down hill from this standpoint.

 

[coolnerd]

this is the year to trade down in rookie drafts if you want WRs. In one 12 team PPR league I got the following WRs:2.4 Kelly2.12 Nelson3.1 Avery3.3 Simpson3.7 CaldwellI figure if even 2 or 3 of these 5 pan out, that's a great rookie draft for having picks that late in the 2 and 3rd rounds.

I don't disagree with this, but even in deeper leagues, not sure how efficient it is to use 5 spots and maybe up to three years to find out what you have. That said, I like the value of where you drafted these guys.

 

[Liquid Tension]

A lot of discussion on Chris Johnson and Felix Jones and their weight being the deciding factor. Leg churn and being their pads is also very important. These are two characteristics of a guy who was productive in the postseason last year with a weight (on ESPN) of 198 pounds. Ahmad Bradshaw is listed at 5-9 but ran with excellent leg churn and good quickness. Now, it should be noted that Bradshaw was NOT productive from a fantasy standpoint even in the postseason, but if the guy can play in the NFL, one would expect in the long run they will get more opportunity.

These "lighter" guys will most likely only have value in PPR (for RB's) leagues though and while I don't understand why leagues want to reward a RB for catching a pass those are the only leagues where these guys should be a higher priority IMO. BTW, I don't consider MJD light, I consider him short.

 

[Ripleys]

this is the year to trade down in rookie drafts if you want WRs. In one 12 team PPR league I got the following WRs:2.4 Kelly2.12 Nelson3.1 Avery3.3 Simpson3.7 CaldwellI figure if even 2 or 3 of these 5 pan out, that's a great rookie draft for having picks that late in the 2 and 3rd rounds.

I don't disagree with this, but even in deeper leagues, not sure how efficient it is to use 5 spots and maybe up to three years to find out what you have. That said, I like the value of where you drafted these guys.

I just happened to have the luxury since I have very solid starters in place already. Plus, I always draft thinking of future trades too.

 

[Holy Schneikes]

14. Donnie Avery, WR, STLOUTLOOK - Avery is a speedy WR with great athletic ability. He was highly productive in college and he'll be given every opportunity to earn major snaps as a rookie in 2008 and to possibly push Drew Bennett out the door in 2009. He is cut from the same cloth as Santana Moss and former Rams WR Kevin Curtis. Avery isn't as good as Moss though and he's known to have inconsistent hands. I think he can eventually become a produtive second wideout in St. Louis, but his size puts a cap on his upside. A solid prospect, but probably not a difference maker.

I don't really have a problem with the ranking (though I'd much rather have Avery than Kelly), I'm not really sure where you are going with the size putting a cap on his upside.He weighed in at 5'11, 192. While that's a LITTLE smaller than ideal, it's not that far off either. Below is a list of guys who are of a similar size and have had some fairly high "upside" years (recently, and in the recent past).6'0 198 Wayne6'0 190 Holt5'9 185 Smith5'11 189 Holmes5'10 197 Lee Evans6'1 192 Chad Johnson6'0 185 Harrison6'0 188 Ike Bruce5'11 193 Coles5'11 197 Galloway5'11 195 Glenn6'0 190 Driver6'0 195 Tim Brown

 

[Team Legacy]

Agreed on Avery. I think he'll do VERY well in STL.

If you're going to knock anybody for their size this year, its Desean Jackson. Kid is tiny.

 

[EBF]

14. Donnie Avery, WR, STLOUTLOOK - Avery is a speedy WR with great athletic ability. He was highly productive in college and he'll be given every opportunity to earn major snaps as a rookie in 2008 and to possibly push Drew Bennett out the door in 2009. He is cut from the same cloth as Santana Moss and former Rams WR Kevin Curtis. Avery isn't as good as Moss though and he's known to have inconsistent hands. I think he can eventually become a produtive second wideout in St. Louis, but his size puts a cap on his upside. A solid prospect, but probably not a difference maker.

I don't really have a problem with the ranking (though I'd much rather have Avery than Kelly), I'm not really sure where you are going with the size putting a cap on his upside.He weighed in at 5'11, 192. While that's a LITTLE smaller than ideal, it's not that far off either. Below is a list of guys who are of a similar size and have had some fairly high "upside" years (recently, and in the recent past).6'0 198 Wayne6'0 190 Holt5'9 185 Smith5'11 189 Holmes5'10 197 Lee Evans6'1 192 Chad Johnson6'0 185 Harrison6'0 188 Ike Bruce5'11 193 Coles5'11 197 Galloway5'11 195 Glenn6'0 190 Driver6'0 195 Tim Brown

He's not that small, but he isn't a dominating talent like Steve Smith or Joey Galloway. He's more like Santonio Holmes and Terry Glenn in terms of talent and playing style: a high end WR2 who can stretch the field and make big plays, but is limited in the red zone because he can't win jump balls or overpower DB's.

 

[bcr8f]

11. Jordy Nelson, WR, GB

OUTLOOK - Jordy Nelson is not a flashy player and he'll never be a dominant Pro Bowl type WR. He simply doesn't have the physical gifts of guys like Anquan Boldin and Steve Smith. But the more I watch him, the more I like him. He's an underrated athlete and talented football player with a legitimate chance to develop into a highly-productive WR. The first thing that stands out about him is his speed. He's not Ted Ginn or Randy Moss, but he was a state champion sprinter (and long jumper) in high school and his pure straight line jets are actually quite good once he gets going. He has good hands and is tough player with excellent character and a team-first mentality. Ted Thompson has done a great job finding receivers who fit his system. Both Greg Jennings and James Jones emerged from relative obscurity to wildly outperform expectations. That bodes well for Nelson. He's a perfect fit in Green Bay, where Jennings can work the deep stuff, opening the middle of the field for Nelson. He should eventually develop into a solid "move the chains" type WR sort of like a hybrid of Wes Welker and Ed McCaffrey.

He's a perfect slot receiver/H Back hybrid. They'll move him all over the field and his height and great hands will bode well eventually.

 

[EBF]

11. Jordy Nelson, WR, GBOUTLOOK - Jordy Nelson is not a flashy player and he'll never be a dominant Pro Bowl type WR. He simply doesn't have the physical gifts of guys like Anquan Boldin and Steve Smith. But the more I watch him, the more I like him. He's an underrated athlete and talented football player with a legitimate chance to develop into a highly-productive WR. The first thing that stands out about him is his speed. He's not Ted Ginn or Randy Moss, but he was a state champion sprinter (and long jumper) in high school and his pure straight line jets are actually quite good once he gets going. He has good hands and is tough player with excellent character and a team-first mentality. Ted Thompson has done a great job finding receivers who fit his system. Both Greg Jennings and James Jones emerged from relative obscurity to wildly outperform expectations. That bodes well for Nelson. He's a perfect fit in Green Bay, where Jennings can work the deep stuff, opening the middle of the field for Nelson. He should eventually develop into a solid "move the chains" type WR sort of like a hybrid of Wes Welker and Ed McCaffrey.He's a perfect slot receiver/H Back hybrid. They'll move him all over the field and his height and great hands will bode well eventually.

Nelson doesn't have the huge athletic upside of someone like Devin Thomas, but he looks like one of the safer receivers in the class. Green Bay had him ranked as the top WR in the draft. I think he can eventually settle into a starting spot there and be a good possession WR.

 

[EBF]

A couple other notes:

- With Benson officially out of the way, Forte becomes an even more appealing short-term option. I still don't think he's a starting caliber talent in the long run, but he's capable of producing 1,000+ rushing yards next season. You'll probably be able to sell high next offseason. Chris Brown isn't a terrible comparison in terms of overall ability.

- Dustin Keller has been moving up my board. With the lack of bankable low risk receivers in this group, the relatively safe Keller is a good choice as early as the top 8-15 picks. I see him eventually becoming a Chris Cooley type player in the NFL.

- Even though I like Tashard Choice as a quality sleeper, the Barber signing hurts his value. I wouldn't take him over guys like Flacco and Keller anymore. He's still a nice guy to stash on your bench though. If he has talent, he'll eventually get a chance somewhere.

- After initially being bullish on Eddie Royal and then tempering my expectations, I think I'm leaning slightly towards bullish again. You can make a case for him in the same general area as Hardy/Sweed/Avery/Jackson. Determining which of these WR's are for real has been the hardest part of evaluating this class and I suspect it's the area where my rankings will be weakest in hindsight.

 

[FUBAR]

- After initially being bullish on Eddie Royal and then tempering my expectations, I think I'm leaning slightly towards bullish again. You can make a case for him in the same general area as Hardy/Sweed/Avery/Jackson. Determining which of these WR's are for real has been the hardest part of evaluating this class and I suspect it's the area where my rankings will be weakest in hindsight.

I like what we can see from his skills, and I really like his QB, so I can see the upside here. You won't be the only one lacking in hindsight with these WRs; I'll be shocked if anyone nails them all right - and I don't just mean not getting the deep sleepers, among the top 10 it's practically a crapshoot.

 

[JPeso]

I'd be interested to see your PPR rankings.

 

[EBF]

I like what we can see from his skills, and I really like his QB, so I can see the upside here.

You won't be the only one lacking in hindsight with these WRs; I'll be shocked if anyone nails them all right - and I don't just mean not getting the deep sleepers, among the top 10 it's practically a crapshoot.

I'll buy that. I think the fact that there were no first round WR's and that 10 of them were drafted between picks 33-58 speaks to how difficult it is to draw a distinction between these guys. I'd love to be able to definitively say which guys are going to hit and which guys are going to bust, but evaluating receivers is a tricky science. Who believed three years ago that Holmes, Jennings, and Marshall would be head-and-shoulders above their class? Some people may have seen one or two of those guys coming, but I don't think anyone had them ranked 1-2-3. This year I favor Thomas, Kelly, Nelson, Caldwell, and Royal within their draft ranges, but I won't be surprised to see some of the other guys succeed.

 

[EBF]

I'd be interested to see your PPR rankings.

Chris Johnson would get a big boost. I've settled on the idea that he'll never be a featured back, but he has a chance to play a Charlie Garner type role. He's a true WR/RB hybrid, so it will be very interesting to see what kind of success he has. I was a little slow to react on Dustin Keller, but I think he's a great pick in PPR leagues that require you to start a TE. I'd put him right up there with Thomas and Kelly in that 6-8 range. He's quietly one of the safer skill position prospects in this draft. I only wish I had drafted him in more of my leagues. As I just mentioned, it's a real nightmare trying to rank these receivers. I seem to be gravitating towards Kelly, Thomas, Nelson, Royal, and Caldwell as my favorites. I'm sure 1-2 of the other guys will become good players though. Nelson gets the biggest boost in PPR because he seems like the type of boring, no-nonsense possession WR who could excel in the PPR format. Other than that, there wouldn't be many changes. I still see Mendenhall, Stewart, and McFadden as the clear first tier. I like Jones and Rice, yet each has enough flaws to be held out of the first tier. Forte and Smith are a notch below the first tier in terms of talent, but they have starting potential. I think Forte has a great opportunity to have a good rookie year. Once people anoint him the next big thing like they did with Chris Brown and Anthony Thomas, you should be able to move him for a good player.

 

[dmac37]

11. Jordy Nelson, WR, GBOUTLOOK - Jordy Nelson is not a flashy player and he'll never be a dominant Pro Bowl type WR. He simply doesn't have the physical gifts of guys like Anquan Boldin and Steve Smith. But the more I watch him, the more I like him. He's an underrated athlete and talented football player with a legitimate chance to develop into a highly-productive WR. The first thing that stands out about him is his speed. He's not Ted Ginn or Randy Moss, but he was a state champion sprinter (and long jumper) in high school and his pure straight line jets are actually quite good once he gets going. He has good hands and is tough player with excellent character and a team-first mentality. Ted Thompson has done a great job finding receivers who fit his system. Both Greg Jennings and James Jones emerged from relative obscurity to wildly outperform expectations. That bodes well for Nelson. He's a perfect fit in Green Bay, where Jennings can work the deep stuff, opening the middle of the field for Nelson. He should eventually develop into a solid "move the chains" type WR sort of like a hybrid of Wes Welker and Ed McCaffrey.He's a perfect slot receiver/H Back hybrid. They'll move him all over the field and his height and great hands will bode well eventually.

Nelson doesn't have the huge athletic upside of someone like Devin Thomas, but he looks like one of the safer receivers in the class. Green Bay had him ranked as the top WR in the draft. I think he can eventually settle into a starting spot there and be a good possession WR.

How do you compare Nelson and Earl Bennet in PPR? I was going back and forth between the two, seemed to be close in value, but chose Bennet over Nelson. Yes GB has a far superior offense than the Bears, but Chicago will still throw the ball, I think they were around 10th in pass attempts last year. Nelson would seem to take over for Driver in 2-3 years, but there is still a lot of competition in GB. I could see Bennet starting this year and being the go to receiver within a year or two. Also things change and the Bear offense could turn around in a few years.

 

[duece2626]

Nelson would seem to take over for Driver in 2-3 years

Nelson will be best utilized in the slot, IMO.

 

[EBF]

How do you compare Nelson and Earl Bennet in PPR? I was going back and forth between the two, seemed to be close in value, but chose Bennet over Nelson. Yes GB has a far superior offense than the Bears, but Chicago will still throw the ball, I think they were around 10th in pass attempts last year. Nelson would seem to take over for Driver in 2-3 years, but there is still a lot of competition in GB. I could see Bennet starting this year and being the go to receiver within a year or two. Also things change and the Bear offense could turn around in a few years.

A lot of people whose opinions I respect are high on Bennett, but I've always been lukewarm on his prospects. I see him as a possession receiver who lacks the elite athletic ability needed to become a standout. He's kind of like James Jones or Jerricho Cotchery with less run after the catch skills. He can make an early impact, but I see him topping out as an 800-850 yards type.Nelson is a more versatile wideout. He's not explosive after the catch, but he's a crafty open field runner and he has surprisingly good long speed. I think he plays faster than Bennett. You're right that the situation isn't ideal, but Driver is old and Jennings is still really just a deep threat. James Jones is an interesting prospect, but if they thought he was better than Jordy then I don't think they would've used their first pick on him. The fact that Ted Thompson was willing to take Nelson so high improves his standing in my eyes. I think Bennett can outproduce Jordy for 1-2 years, but I think Nelson is the better long term play.

 

[switz]

OK, someone has to say it. Jerry Jones BLEW it when he took Felix over Mendenhall. I don't care if Switz will go off on that or if Cowboy fans want to say otherwise, its about as glaring of a mistake as their was in the draft. How on earth could Jones take Felix over Rashard? Then they take Choice later on to try and smudge it over? Come on.

Well, since I had Mendenhall ranked higher than Jones in my pre-draft rankings, I can't argue much with that statement. My only contention is that we should wait a few years before saying it so dogmatically. Jones has all the makings to be the best RB in this class, except opportunity. Mendenhall will likely get more opportunity sooner than Jones.But the thing is that DAL really wasn't looking for someone with Mendenhall's skillsets... they wanted a more versatile, explosive player... not so much your every down grind it out guy, who they have in Barber.Whether we agree with the move or not, that was their reasoning.As for Choice, that was just insurance for Barber walking away, it had nothing to do with Jones. It's not like they have a roster full of RB depth.