[DYNASTY] Top 50 WR Rankings (1 Viewer)

[kremenull]

Pretty decent rankings, not quite in agreement with a lot of the Top 10 though. Would have liked to see some tiering in here as I'm curious to know where you have Crabtree and Dez in relation to Roddy and Austin.

 

[squistion]

Andre Roberts at #37 and Johnny Knox below #50. I can't see a Knox owner in any league doing a straight up trade for Roberts at this time (unless that owner was you). Yes, Knox has a slight build and I have hitched a ride on the Martz/Knox hype train, but still these two listings are way off IMO.

As I mentioned, once you get outside the top 30 things start to break down and ranking players is mostly a matter of picking your favorite unproven prospects with potential. I like Roberts more than Knox, so he's higher on my list. In a redraft league I would definitely give the edge to Knox.

Also, the oft-injured Anthony Gonzalez at #38 but Austin Collie is not listed at all. Another one I can't see, but not surprising since you have never thought much of Collie. Even if Collie is just a slot receiver I like his long term value with Peyton throwing to him more than the fragile Gonzalez.

I don't think it's that crazy. In Gonzalez you have a former first round pick who has played well when healthy. Collie is a decent player, but I don't think he's quite as gifted physically and I think his 2009 numbers are close to his ceiling.

So, you thought Collie's 2009 rookie numbers were close to his ceiling. Do you still want to stand behind that?

 

[squistion]

So, you thought Collie's 2009 rookie numbers were close to his ceiling. Do you still want to stand behind that?

EBF, should I take your non-answer as a yes? I saw you reading this thread about an hour after the above was posted, but you have not responded. You have never been at a loss for words in the past, so it appears you may be trying to avoid discussing this.So, to refresh our memory, let's look at Collie's 2009 and 2010 numbers.2009 - 60 catches, 676 yards, 7 TDs (for the season)2010 - 27 catches, 359 yards, 4 TDs (after 3 games)You stated that you felt that Collie's numbers from his rookie year are close to his ceiling in a Dynasty league - is that still your position?

 

[jwb]

So, you thought Collie's 2009 rookie numbers were close to his ceiling. Do you still want to stand behind that?

EBF, should I take your non-answer as a yes? I saw you reading this thread about an hour after the above was posted, but you have not responded. You have never been at a loss for words in the past, so it appears you may be trying to avoid discussing this.So, to refresh our memory, let's look at Collie's 2009 and 2010 numbers.2009 - 60 catches, 676 yards, 7 TDs (for the season)2010 - 27 catches, 359 yards, 4 TDs (after 3 games)You stated that you felt that Collie's numbers from his rookie year are close to his ceiling in a Dynasty league - is that still your position?

He was wrong. Guys who put out rankings are going to miss a few. No biggie.What more are you looking for that you needed to post, wait and see who was reading an hour later, make a note of it, then post again two days later?

 

[squistion]

So, you thought Collie's 2009 rookie numbers were close to his ceiling. Do you still want to stand behind that?

EBF, should I take your non-answer as a yes? I saw you reading this thread about an hour after the above was posted, but you have not responded. You have never been at a loss for words in the past, so it appears you may be trying to avoid discussing this.So, to refresh our memory, let's look at Collie's 2009 and 2010 numbers.2009 - 60 catches, 676 yards, 7 TDs (for the season)2010 - 27 catches, 359 yards, 4 TDs (after 3 games)You stated that you felt that Collie's numbers from his rookie year are close to his ceiling in a Dynasty league - is that still your position?

He was wrong. Guys who put out rankings are going to miss a few. No biggie.What more are you looking for that you needed to post, wait and see who was reading an hour later, make a note of it, then post again two days later?

Um, this is his thread, I asked him a specific question and I saw him reading it. I too think he was wrong, but he has yet to admit it. He may well still believe what he first posted - it would not surprise me.

 

[EBF]

lol

 

[happy_donut]

Um, this is his thread, I asked him a specific question and I saw him reading it.

No, you are trying to call him out. If you want to ask a specific question, why not PM the guy?

he has yet to admit it

LOL. Welcome to the internet. At first it can be a little disconcerting.

 

[SSOG]

Bush league, squistion. Anyone who takes some swings is going to have some misses. People coming and gloating over a single miss like it was an affront before all humanity serve no purpose other than discouraging readers from ever taking any swings of their own.

Keep patting yourself on the back about how much smarter you are than EBF because since the time of last posting Indy has lost Anthony Gonzalez and Pierre Garcon and a guy who EBF was predicting would hold little value as Indy's WR4 is suddenly making a lot of noise as Indy's WR2 playing the role of "Indy WR not covered by Champ Bailey" against Denver's injury-riddled secondary.

Personally, I think EBF's process was fine. Had Garcon and Gonzalez not gotten injured, I question whether Collie would have 150 receiving yards right now. The fact that Gonzo and Garcon did get injured sure makes that prediction look like a bad outcome right now, but a very smart guy once wrote about how important it was to distinguish between processes and outcomes. If I predict that Marques Colston is going to be a low-end WR2, and suddenly Henderson and Moore both get injured and Colston blows up and finishes in the top 5, the prediction wound up being wrong... but that doesn't mean that the reasoning behind the prediction wasn't rock solid.

In other words, let's see how Collie does after Gonzalez and Garcon return before declaring him the second coming, shall we? Also, let's turn the Tool Factor Knob from 11 all the way back to 3. Someone took time out of his busy schedule to share a lot of his work. He didn't have to do that. He's not getting anything out of it. A little gratitude would probably be appropriate.

Edit: Sorry to get all preachy and play board police, but at the end of the day, EBF did you a favor when he posted his rankings for you to peruse, and he really went above and beyond defending those rankings with class and patience. From the way you're posting, you make it sound like he owes you money, or like he was calling you names and disrespecting your momma. EBF doesn't owe you anything, and you certainly shouldn't expect to get anything from him if that's your way of going about it.

 

[EBF]

Bush league, squistion. Anyone who takes some swings is going to have some misses. People coming and gloating over a single miss like it was an affront before all humanity serve no purpose other than discouraging readers from ever taking any swings of their own.Keep patting yourself on the back about how much smarter you are than EBF because since the time of last posting Indy has lost Anthony Gonzalez and Pierre Garcon and a guy who EBF was predicting would hold little value as Indy's WR4 is suddenly making a lot of noise as Indy's WR2 playing the role of "Indy WR not covered by Champ Bailey" against Denver's injury-riddled secondary.Personally, I think EBF's process was fine. Had Garcon and Gonzalez not gotten injured, I question whether Collie would have 150 receiving yards right now. The fact that Gonzo and Garcon did get injured sure makes that prediction look like a bad outcome right now, but a very smart guy once wrote about how important it was to distinguish between processes and outcomes. If I predict that Marques Colston is going to be a low-end WR2, and suddenly Henderson and Moore both get injured and Colston blows up and finishes in the top 5, the prediction wound up being wrong... but that doesn't mean that the reasoning behind the prediction wasn't rock solid.In other words, let's see how Collie does after Gonzalez and Garcon return before declaring him the second coming, shall we? Also, let's turn the Tool Factor Knob from 11 all the way back to 3. Someone took time out of his busy schedule to share a lot of his work. He didn't have to do that. He's not getting anything out of it. A little gratitude would probably be appropriate.Edit: Sorry to get all preachy and play board police, but at the end of the day, EBF did you a favor when he posted his rankings for you to peruse, and he really went above and beyond defending those rankings with class and patience. From the way you're posting, you make it sound like he owes you money, or like he was calling you names and disrespecting your momma. EBF doesn't owe you anything, and you certainly shouldn't expect to get anything from him if that's your way of going about it.

Thanks buddy.As for the Collie question, I didn't feel like responding because I didn't think it warranted a response. Bumping old threads can be fun. I've been guilty of it at times in the past, but in this case it was just a transparent attempt at self-congratulation with me as your whipping boy. Are you really so pathetic that you need to rub it in every time you make a correct judgment where I missed? The Indy WR2 has a lot of FF value. I thought it would be Garcon. Turns out it's Collie. Congrats.

 

[squistion]

The Indy WR2 has a lot of FF value. I thought it would be Garcon. Turns out it's Collie. Congrats.

Thanks!

 

[FUBAR]

As for the Collie question, I didn't feel like responding because I didn't think it warranted a response. Bumping old threads can be fun. I've been guilty of it at times in the past, but in this case it was just a transparent attempt at self-congratulation with me as your whipping boy. Are you really so pathetic that you need to rub it in every time you make a correct judgment where I missed? The Indy WR2 has a lot of FF value. I thought it would be Garcon. Turns out it's Collie. Congrats.

I'm surprised to see you state this as if it were final, although I assume it's sarcasm. We all know Peyton throws the ball wherever he has the best chance of completing it. I just traded for Garcon as I think he can easily come back and this is a dynasty thread. I like Collie as much as anyone (just turned down an offer of Vincent Jackson straight for him) but this is far from decided and I'm not sure there will be a clear winner when everyone's healthy. Anyone who really thinks this is over already hasn't been paying attention to the Colts.

Question for you though, and I do mean it as such - Has Maclin changed your mind yet? He isn't racking up the yardage so I can see where he might not be, but he's scoring TDs in spades. With other players I might be concerned about TDs being more random than yardage, so I'm wondering if I have blinders on here.

 

[valhallan]

Hey EBF, I'm curious about your ranking of Andre Roberts. I was able to pick him up in two of my dynasty leagues, so seeing him that high is nice albeit surprising. What makes you think he'll be the long term #2 in Arizona?

It's just a gut call based on what I've seen from him. His upside might be limited because he's a bit small and he lacks truly elite speed (although he's in the 4.4 range), but I really like his mobility and receiving ability. He has fluid route running skills that remind me of Eddie Royal and Santonio Holmes. With time to develop, I can see him becoming the type of solid starting WR who excels despite lacking obvious standouts physical traits. Bear in mind that he was drafted higher than Breaston and only 7 spots lower than Doucet. Saying that he's the second best WR on the Cardinals might seem like a controversial statement right now, but it's not exactly lunacy given the NFL's evaluation of his potential. That's not to mention the small school factor, which typically suppresses a player's draft stock. Had he attended a visible program like Michigan or LSU, he might have been a 2nd round pick.

Barring a spectacular training camp, Roberts will handle punt return duties and ride the bench on offense this season, but I think he's a good player who could emerge as a starter down the road.

Here's a choppy, but comprehensive highlight reel if you haven't seen it yet:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=An5rP_BiEdg

What do you make of Roberts' season thus far? It seems he's wearing out his welcome on punt returns and even with injuries to Breaston and Doucet, he's expected to be the 4th receiver behind Max "extremely high fumble rate" Komar. I want to remain patient, but so far there have been zero positives to lean on. Did you expect this kind of a redshirt season?

 

[EBF]

Question for you though, and I do mean it as such - Has Maclin changed your mind yet? He isn't racking up the yardage so I can see where he might not be, but he's scoring TDs in spades. With other players I might be concerned about TDs being more random than yardage, so I'm wondering if I have blinders on here.

I haven't given up on Garcon and I don't think the Colts WR picture is set in stone yet. The Colts are much like the Saints in the sense that any WR who plays for them can post monster games because the QB play is so strong. I think Garcon will have some good moments when he returns, although I don't think we can assume that he'll pass Collie even though he seemed to have beaten him out for the WR2 job at the end of the 2009 season. Garcon is more athletic. Collie is more reliable. I think the latter is more important for that role on that team. As for Maclin, he really hasn't done much yet this season. I don't think he's a bad player, but I don't see why I need to consider him a top 25 dynasty WR. The unsustainable number of TDs is obscuring the fact that his yardage totals have been mediocre. It's a long season though and with the way Vick is playing, it might only be a matter of time before Maclin has a big game or two.

 

[EBF]

Hey EBF, I'm curious about your ranking of Andre Roberts. I was able to pick him up in two of my dynasty leagues, so seeing him that high is nice albeit surprising. What makes you think he'll be the long term #2 in Arizona?

It's just a gut call based on what I've seen from him. His upside might be limited because he's a bit small and he lacks truly elite speed (although he's in the 4.4 range), but I really like his mobility and receiving ability. He has fluid route running skills that remind me of Eddie Royal and Santonio Holmes. With time to develop, I can see him becoming the type of solid starting WR who excels despite lacking obvious standouts physical traits. Bear in mind that he was drafted higher than Breaston and only 7 spots lower than Doucet. Saying that he's the second best WR on the Cardinals might seem like a controversial statement right now, but it's not exactly lunacy given the NFL's evaluation of his potential. That's not to mention the small school factor, which typically suppresses a player's draft stock. Had he attended a visible program like Michigan or LSU, he might have been a 2nd round pick.

Barring a spectacular training camp, Roberts will handle punt return duties and ride the bench on offense this season, but I think he's a good player who could emerge as a starter down the road.

Here's a choppy, but comprehensive highlight reel if you haven't seen it yet:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=An5rP_BiEdg

What do you make of Roberts' season thus far? It seems he's wearing out his welcome on punt returns and even with injuries to Breaston and Doucet, he's expected to be the 4th receiver behind Max "extremely high fumble rate" Komar. I want to remain patient, but so far there have been zero positives to lean on. Did you expect this kind of a redshirt season?

His season has been a complete disaster. He has fallen behind two undrafted rookies on the depth chart and flubbed virtually every opportunity that he has been given. Obviously I had hoped that he would make a better first impression. It's not reasonable to expect every rookie to step in and dominate, but you hope to see at least some glimmers of talent. There haven't been any with Roberts. That doesn't mean his career is over. Growing pains aren't totally uncommon at WR. Guys like Robert Meachem, Darrius Heyward-Bey, and Plaxico Burress had horrrific rookie seasons and they were first round picks of whom much was expected. Other players like Miles Austin, Vincent Jackson, and Donald Driver did almost nothing as rookies. Not every WR comes into the league ready to contribute. Still, there's a reason that the Cardinals invested a high pick in Roberts. He has talent and if he gets comfortable with the level of competition and the playbook, we could start to see it. I'm holding him in leagues where I own him. I even bought him recently for a 2011 3rd round rookie pick despite his struggles. He might ultimately end up being a terrible bust, but it's far too early to reach that verdict.

 

[n20]

So, you thought Collie's 2009 rookie numbers were close to his ceiling. Do you still want to stand behind that?

EBF, should I take your non-answer as a yes? I saw you reading this thread about an hour after the above was posted, but you have not responded. You have never been at a loss for words in the past, so it appears you may be trying to avoid discussing this.So, to refresh our memory, let's look at Collie's 2009 and 2010 numbers.2009 - 60 catches, 676 yards, 7 TDs (for the season)2010 - 27 catches, 359 yards, 4 TDs (after 3 games)You stated that you felt that Collie's numbers from his rookie year are close to his ceiling in a Dynasty league - is that still your position?

Are you joking? Why do you think FBG's experts change their dynasty rankings every week (in the offseason at least)? Coaches change. Schemes change. Players change. Rankings have to always be updated based on what changes.EBF puts himself out there and he is right the majority of the time... Let's see your master dynasty rankings list.

 

[squistion]

EBF puts himself out there and he is right the majority of the time... Let's see your master dynasty rankings list.

Perhaps, but when he is wrong he appears reluctant to admit it (see Darren McFadden). Barracuda Fantasy Sports carried my preseason dynasty rankings articles. That site has its own FF message board and if you wish to discuss my rankings there I will be willing to do so until the cows come home (I don't think it would be appropriate in this thread). I have welcomed all criticism and comments on my rankings and never ignored a post because "I didn't think it warranted a response." I have made my share of wrong calls, but when they are pointed out to me, I own up to them and move on.

 

[SSOG]

EBF puts himself out there and he is right the majority of the time... Let's see your master dynasty rankings list.

Perhaps, but when he is wrong he appears reluctant to admit it (see Darren McFadden). Barracuda Fantasy Sports carried my preseason dynasty rankings articles. That site has its own FF message board and if you wish to discuss my rankings there I will be willing to do so until the cows come home (I don't think it would be appropriate in this thread). I have welcomed all criticism and comments on my rankings and never ignored a post because "I didn't think it warranted a response." I have made my share of wrong calls, but when they are pointed out to me, I own up to them and move on.

EBF does seem slow to admit mistakes. It's likely that being slow to admit mistakes is a pretty good process for EBF. He's slow to admit he was wrong on Collie and McFadden, but it's not like we know for sure he was wrong on Collie. It's still perfectly possible that Michael Bush and Pierre Garcon return to full strength and relegate both players to the fantasy bench. I suspect that EBF's "slow-to-admit-mistakes" philosophy has saved him several times in the past where he refused to admit a "mistake" that, upon further evaluation, was not a mistake at all. I know that I've been criticized in the past for being slow to react to changing conditions, and while it has cost me from time to time, over the long run it's done me more good than harm.Second off, congratulations on being such a wonderful person that you gladly suffer tools who drop by to self-servingly thump their chests over every single mistake you make. I'm sure you're a paragon of patience and an example to all who would consider submitting their own rankings for public consumption. None of this, of course, makes your rankings any better or worse than anyone else's. At the end of the day, I care more about the substance of the rankings themselves than I do about how graciously the ranker deals with trolls.

 

[Steed]

EBF puts himself out there and he is right the majority of the time... Let's see your master dynasty rankings list.

Perhaps, but when he is wrong he appears reluctant to admit it (see Darren McFadden).

So 3 very good games for DMC are enough to override two years of utter futility? And I seem to recall EBF thinking DMC was a good buy last offseason considering the price.

 

[squistion]

EBF puts himself out there and he is right the majority of the time... Let's see your master dynasty rankings list.

Perhaps, but when he is wrong he appears reluctant to admit it (see Darren McFadden).

So 3 very good games for DMC are enough to override two years of utter futility? And I seem to recall EBF thinking DMC was a good buy last offseason considering the price.

Actually he said a couple weeks ago in another thread that McFadden had still not shown the potential to be an above average RB (something like that). Whether DMC can cut it as an every down back remains to be seen, but I would personally say that he has at least shown the potential to be an above average back.

 

[SSOG]

EBF puts himself out there and he is right the majority of the time... Let's see your master dynasty rankings list.

Perhaps, but when he is wrong he appears reluctant to admit it (see Darren McFadden).

So 3 very good games for DMC are enough to override two years of utter futility? And I seem to recall EBF thinking DMC was a good buy last offseason considering the price.

Nah, EBF has never advocated trading for McFadden.Edit: not like this guy has, at least.

Edit #2: that trip down memory lane provided the perfect example of how silly it is to berate EBF 3 weeks into the season about his "mistakes". A year ago, he was getting destroyed for refusing to admit his "mistake" on Rashard Mendenhall. He kept insisting that Mendenhall was a good buy, and people kept excoriating him for refusing to see what was in front of his face and admit that Mendenhall was an irredeemable bust. I believe Mr. Funk walked away from that one with the last laugh.

 

[squistion]

Second off, congratulations on being such a wonderful person that you gladly suffer tools who drop by to self-servingly thump their chests over every single mistake you make. I'm sure you're a paragon of patience and an example to all who would consider submitting their own rankings for public consumption. None of this, of course, makes your rankings any better or worse than anyone else's. At the end of the day, I care more about the substance of the rankings themselves than I do about how graciously the ranker deals with trolls.

Good for you!

 

[EBF]

I think I'm actually pretty good at admitting when I'm wrong. I didn't like Chris Johnson or Brandon Marshall when they were draft prospects, yet you never hear me slamming them. In fact, in the past year I've actually been higher on Marshall than the consensus. I readily admit when I'm wrong and adjust my rankings accordingly.

I've said repeatedly that "a few games" do not "prove" anything about a player. I've said numerous times that great players routinely suffer through terrible stretches and that it's not at all uncommon to see mediocre players put up great numbers in a small sample size. If I'm not obligated to believe that Lee Suggs's three consecutive 100+ yard rushing games in 2004 proved that he was a stud then why am I obligated to believe that McFadden's three good games in 2010 prove that he's a stud? The truth is, 3-4 games mean almost nothing. McFadden has proven almost nothing. There's no inconsistency or denial here. This is my approach.

I don't think most FF owners are familiar with the concept of variance. I think most of them operate with a "what have you done for me lately" mindset that results in them frequently being "fooled by randomness." That's not how I do things. Patience and perspective are what I preach. I try to develop a strong opinion of a player's talent level and value. I try not to budge from that stance unless I have strong evidence that I'm wrong one way or the other. 3-4 games don't qualify as strong evidence. Hell, even a whole season might not qualify as strong evidence.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

I've said repeatedly that "a few games" do not "prove" anything about a player. I've said numerous times that great players routinely suffer through terrible stretches and that it's not at all uncommon to see mediocre players put up great numbers in a small sample size. If I'm not obligated to believe that Lee Suggs's three consecutive 100+ yard rushing games in 2004 proved that he was a stud then why am I obligated to believe that McFadden's three good games in 2010 prove that he's a stud? The truth is, 3-4 games mean almost nothing. McFadden has proven almost nothing. There's no inconsistency or denial here. This is my approach. I don't think most FF owners are familiar with the concept of variance. I think most of them operate with a "what have you done for me lately" mindset that results in them frequently being "fooled by randomness." That's not how I do things. Patience and perspective are what I preach. I try to develop a strong opinion of a player's talent level and value. I try not to budge from that stance unless I have strong evidence that I'm wrong one way or the other. 3-4 games don't qualify as strong evidence. Hell, even a whole season might not qualify as strong evidence.

Folks could learn a lot just by reading these 2 paragraphs and internalizing the message. Well put.