tadowdaddy
Footballguy
Any thoughts on the Dynasty Value of Hardesty or B. Wells? Working some deals and have long term picture in my thoughts. Any input is appreciated.
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Dynasty Value of Hardesty/Wells (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter tadowdaddy
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DoubleG
Footballguy
I have thoughts on Wells - just not sure if they will be all that helpful.IF Wells can stay on the field and be relatively productive (productive as in 60+ rushing yards even when injured - not that 10 rushes for 20 yards crap) I think he will stay the lead back for the Cardinals - even with Williams returning next year. Partly because at this point we really have no idea how such a major injury will affect Williams. Now, all of that said. I think that makes Wells a very good RB2 with matchup-based RB1 upside. Part of the reason for the high (in some people's mind) grade is because he has been that with a very weak passing game. If the Cardinals get decent QB play his value would be higher - but IMHO, is balanced by a loss in touches next year to Williams. Wells is certainly not as talented as DWill of the Panthers - but I see a situation similar to what the DWill/Stewart RBBC was a couple years ago (not this year). Wells being the early down guy with maybe a 60/40 edge. Again, much of this is dependant on R. Williams recovering well and being able to play at something close to what he was pre-injury. The problem with this situation - and hence the issue in predicting the long term future of Wells - is that there are so many variables:1) Can Wells stay healthy?2) Can Williams get healthy?3) How productive will Williams be when he returns from injury? Will he be 95%? 80%? If less, will that even be enough to realistically change Wells' value?4) If Williams does have set backs, will the Cardinals draft/sign another RB?5) How will the coaching staff balance touches between the two? What about in 2013, when Wells has a club option for 700k?
Warhogs
Footballguy
I prefer to look at the values in terms of what rookie pick value I would assign.
Wells is still really young but has had numerous injury issues and is putting up some pretty decent statistics. I would put his current pick value at about 1.03.
Hardesty has never really gotten much chance to show himself due to injuries but the poetential is there for Hillis to leave and give him a great shot at being the starter there next year. I would probably put his pick value at around 1.06.
Wells is still really young but has had numerous injury issues and is putting up some pretty decent statistics. I would put his current pick value at about 1.03.
Hardesty has never really gotten much chance to show himself due to injuries but the poetential is there for Hillis to leave and give him a great shot at being the starter there next year. I would probably put his pick value at around 1.06.
Shutout
Footballguy
Wells has shown the cardinals enough this year to earn him another year as the lead back. The Cardinals probably WANT to not spend a draft pick on another RB so they can use it elsewhere and to see what they have in Williams. Wells' ability to play through small injuries this year and his production when healthy (which has been really good) gives them that chance to hold off and to give Kevin Kolb a legit chance to get this offense down (this is REALLY a different offense for him and it is obvious he is still learning it). And you would think when he finally does get better at it, it helps the running game.
So for Wells I feel good and the only thing that would make me think his value decreases at all is if he got hurt and Williams came in and just lit it up. But even with that, we can't control injuries; if a guy is going to get hurt, he is...that simple. And, we really don't know what Williams can be after this year off.
I don't feel good about Hardesty at all. I think that whole house gets cleaned up some more this offseason.
So for Wells I feel good and the only thing that would make me think his value decreases at all is if he got hurt and Williams came in and just lit it up. But even with that, we can't control injuries; if a guy is going to get hurt, he is...that simple. And, we really don't know what Williams can be after this year off.
I don't feel good about Hardesty at all. I think that whole house gets cleaned up some more this offseason.
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Concept Coop
Footballguy
The 1.06?! He cost that before the injuries and poor play. I would move him for a 2nd - easy.Hillis is gone, but Hardesty didn't look like the answer. Cleveland will bring somebody in, most likely someone better than Hardesty.
Skeletore Eh
Footballguy
I would definitely take the 1.3 over wells. The 1.6 for hardesty is close but I would still probably take the pick
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
1.3 vs. Wells is close. I think it is fair given how few elite RBs will be available next year. You're not going to get a better RB with that pick, I don't think.
Hardesty is not worth a 1st. Maybe not a 2nd.
Hardesty is not worth a 1st. Maybe not a 2nd.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
When Hardesty was drafted in rookie drafts, it was with the impression that he was the starting RB for the Browns. Since that time, he has never been the best RB on his roster, he has missed 1.5 season (out of 2) and didn't look good when he did play. Nobody is giving anything close to a first, in most formats, and it would be foolish not to trade him for a first, given the opportunity.
As a Wells owner, I think 1.3 is a touch much for him, but it is pretty close. If we were looking about how his value would have fallen in the past rookie draft, he would be likely behind: Ingram, AJ, and Julio. Likely ahead of all others. Depending on how good you value the upcoming draft class, I'd say 1.03-1.05 is fair.
Hardesty would fetch a late first at best.
Hardesty would fetch a late first at best.
silentmark
Footballguy
If someone is offering me a 1.03 through 1.06 in a dynasty, I would jump on that ASAP.
Beanie Wells is an injury prone mess imho. He is NOT worth a first rounder with the knowledge he WILL miss games for you and then once he is injured it's hit or miss on how he plays the remainder of the season ... Yes I own him in my dynasty league since he was a rookie and he has been nothing but a headache.
Take the money and RUN. Run quick
Beanie Wells is an injury prone mess imho. He is NOT worth a first rounder with the knowledge he WILL miss games for you and then once he is injured it's hit or miss on how he plays the remainder of the season ... Yes I own him in my dynasty league since he was a rookie and he has been nothing but a headache.
Take the money and RUN. Run quick
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Concept Coop
Footballguy
Beanie missed 4 games in his 3 year career. Darren McFadden is going to miss at least that many this season. When Beanie is hurt, and plays through the injury, he does what every Cardinal RB does: 3.5 YPC. When he is healthy, he does what no other Cardinal RB in a very long time has done: 4.5 YPC.Of course we can't remove Beanie from the crumby situation and see what he could do in a vacuum - we don't have that luxury. But, that is why talent is the safest bet in dynasty formats, and Beanie has that.Oh, and the 1.06? Who specifically? Guys like Daniel Thomas, Ben Tate, Shane Vereen, Greg Little, Jon Baldwin, Randall Cobb, Montario Hardesty...If someone is offering me a 1.03 through 1.06 in a dynasty, I would jump on that ASAP.Beanie Wells is an injury prone mess imho. He is NOT worth a first rounder with the knowledge he WILL miss games for you and then once he is injured it's hit or miss on how he plays the remainder of the season ... Yes I own him in my dynasty league since he was a rookie and he has been nothing but a headache.Take the money and RUN. Run quick
tadowdaddy
Footballguy
Would one be opposed to trading someone like Michael Turner for the both of them in a dynasty league where you are rebuilding, or would people prefer like a 1.17 and Blount for Turner? This particular team is rebuilding.
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Concept Coop
Footballguy
Wells > Turner IMO.
Clifford
Footballguy
How on earth do you group these guys together. Wells, when healthy, has been great. Hardesty, when healthy, has been abysmal. Like grouping Colt McCoy with Cam Newton.
tadowdaddy
Footballguy
That's what I'm being offered for Turner by a team making a stretch run... That's how they grouped together. I'm asking if it's enough, or if I go with my other offer of 1.16 and Blount.
Shutout
Footballguy
I actually traded (before the season started)Turner for Beanie and a couple of draft picks. Dynasty league, had the luxury, and was looking at age. It has worked out well for both of us. he is going to make the playoffs for the first time.But now, after having owned Beanie, I get what the guy said above about the frustration of beanie, but I don't agree with his thought to sell him for anything at 1.06 or similar. I think most RBs miss time now and then. Even Foster and DMAC and MJD and those guys. My experience with Beanie this year has been, if I start him every week except the week he was listed as out, then I have had a couple of great games, a handful of top RB2 games, and two that I would call duds. I think most of us can find a couple of duds with any RB not named LeSean McCoy this year.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Easy accept for me. Or counter with Wells and the pick. Probably wrong forum though.
tadowdaddy
Footballguy
Thanks, I was just intending on getting dynasty "value" out of this forum, not asking about the trade. Agree on wrong forum, but it wasn't my original intent.
Warhogs
Footballguy
I think this post supports my point on the value I tossed out for Hardesty. He could easily be a bust but in dynasty if you are going to be grabbing a RB in the mid to later part of round 1 you have very high risk. Hardesty is very high risk but if Hillis leaves he also may have a big opportunity.Beanie missed 4 games in his 3 year career. Darren McFadden is going to miss at least that many this season. When Beanie is hurt, and plays through the injury, he does what every Cardinal RB does: 3.5 YPC. When he is healthy, he does what no other Cardinal RB in a very long time has done: 4.5 YPC.Of course we can't remove Beanie from the crumby situation and see what he could do in a vacuum - we don't have that luxury. But, that is why talent is the safest bet in dynasty formats, and Beanie has that.Oh, and the 1.06? Who specifically? Guys like Daniel Thomas, Ben Tate, Shane Vereen, Greg Little, Jon Baldwin, Randall Cobb, Montario Hardesty...If someone is offering me a 1.03 through 1.06 in a dynasty, I would jump on that ASAP.Beanie Wells is an injury prone mess imho. He is NOT worth a first rounder with the knowledge he WILL miss games for you and then once he is injured it's hit or miss on how he plays the remainder of the season ... Yes I own him in my dynasty league since he was a rookie and he has been nothing but a headache.Take the money and RUN. Run quick
PlasmaDogPlasma
Footballguy
There's high risk and then there's very little chance. The Browns will not go into next season with Hardesty as their #1 back no matter where Hillis is.I think this post supports my point on the value I tossed out for Hardesty. He could easily be a bust but in dynasty if you are going to be grabbing a RB in the mid to later part of round 1 you have very high risk. Hardesty is very high risk but if Hillis leaves he also may have a big opportunity.Beanie missed 4 games in his 3 year career. Darren McFadden is going to miss at least that many this season. When Beanie is hurt, and plays through the injury, he does what every Cardinal RB does: 3.5 YPC. When he is healthy, he does what no other Cardinal RB in a very long time has done: 4.5 YPC.Of course we can't remove Beanie from the crumby situation and see what he could do in a vacuum - we don't have that luxury. But, that is why talent is the safest bet in dynasty formats, and Beanie has that.Oh, and the 1.06? Who specifically? Guys like Daniel Thomas, Ben Tate, Shane Vereen, Greg Little, Jon Baldwin, Randall Cobb, Montario Hardesty...If someone is offering me a 1.03 through 1.06 in a dynasty, I would jump on that ASAP.Beanie Wells is an injury prone mess imho. He is NOT worth a first rounder with the knowledge he WILL miss games for you and then once he is injured it's hit or miss on how he plays the remainder of the season ... Yes I own him in my dynasty league since he was a rookie and he has been nothing but a headache.Take the money and RUN. Run quick
DoubleG
Footballguy
I agree. Wells has shown that he can be an effective lead RB if he can stay healthy. Hardesty has simply shown he can't stay healthy - and even when he has played, he's averaging 3.3 YPC. At best, even if Hillis leaves, Hardesty is splitting time with Ogbonnoya.There's high risk and then there's very little chance. The Browns will not go into next season with Hardesty as their #1 back no matter where Hillis is.I think this post supports my point on the value I tossed out for Hardesty. He could easily be a bust but in dynasty if you are going to be grabbing a RB in the mid to later part of round 1 you have very high risk. Hardesty is very high risk but if Hillis leaves he also may have a big opportunity.Beanie missed 4 games in his 3 year career. Darren McFadden is going to miss at least that many this season. When Beanie is hurt, and plays through the injury, he does what every Cardinal RB does: 3.5 YPC. When he is healthy, he does what no other Cardinal RB in a very long time has done: 4.5 YPC.If someone is offering me a 1.03 through 1.06 in a dynasty, I would jump on that ASAP.
Beanie Wells is an injury prone mess imho. He is NOT worth a first rounder with the knowledge he WILL miss games for you and then once he is injured it's hit or miss on how he plays the remainder of the season ... Yes I own him in my dynasty league since he was a rookie and he has been nothing but a headache.
Take the money and RUN. Run quick
Of course we can't remove Beanie from the crumby situation and see what he could do in a vacuum - we don't have that luxury. But, that is why talent is the safest bet in dynasty formats, and Beanie has that.
Oh, and the 1.06? Who specifically? Guys like Daniel Thomas, Ben Tate, Shane Vereen, Greg Little, Jon Baldwin, Randall Cobb, Montario Hardesty...
