Dynasty: Young QBs, who are you targetting? (1 Viewer)

[Max Power]

I imagine anyone who owns a Manning, Brady, McNabb, Favre or Hasselbeck is starting to eye the younger talent as a potential replacement down the road. Who are you targetting and why? I've included Tiering with a brief one liner about each player. I'm sure some of you have your favorite sleeper picks that I neglected to include on this list, so tell me why they need to be on here.

Tier 1

Joe Flacco, BAL - Age 25 - Two solid seasons and now has a stud WR, this should be his year to shine.

Matt Ryan, ATL - Age 24 - Seems to be a very well rounded QB at the age of 24, I see now reason he wont become and stay a top 10 QB for many years.

Kevin Kolb, PHI - Age 25 - Might be a bit of a high ranking, but the eagles have plenty of young playmakers and he did show some big time flash last season.

Tier 2

Matthew Stafford, DET - Age 22 - a #1 overall pick with a good arm. Has a young Stud WR that can go get any ball. Det added some more playmakers this year.

Chad Henne, MIA - Age 24 - Solid QB that now has a big time weapon. Main concern here is that Miami is built to run.

Vince Young, TEN - Age 26 - His rushing yards will always give him value. If Britt and Cook develop, he could have some nice options to throw to.

Sam Bradford, STL - Age 22 - Unproven, but sounded like multiple NFL franchises think he could be the guy.

Alex Smith, SF - Age 25 - I'm not ready to give up on him, SF should be a high scoring Offense this year. Although I think most will be on the ground.

Tier 3

Mark Sanchez, NYJ - Age 23 - Showed flashes, and has some big weapons. Could be great, but the ball control Offense will limit fantasy production.

Matt Leinart, ARI - Age 26 - Make or break year IMO. But with Larry Fitz, just putting the ball up for grab could be enough for leinart to get by.

Josh Freeman, TB - Age 22 - Obviously Tampa has committed to him. I'm not expecting too much for the next year or two, but this cat could be good.

Matt Moore, CAR - Age 25 - I think Moore is "ok". Steve Smith can still make a decent QB look good. The problem is that Moore is on a short leash. Clausen is probably more talented.

Tier 4

Tim Tebow, DEN - Age 22 - Worth the risk for the potential upside. I know people hate him, and while I'm not a fan, he could pan out.

Jimmy Clausen, CAR - Age 22 - Will be the Carolina starter in a couple years. Now much value right now.

Dennis Dixon, PIT - Age 24 - This is his chance to show what hes got. I think he will beat out Lefty for the starting job while Ben is gone.

Colt McCoy, CLE - Age 23 - Hard to get excited about a Cleveland QB, but he will get his shot in 2011, if not sooner.

Tier 5 AKA Grab Bag

Josh Johnson, TB - Age 23 - Was always a project QB, and I like what this kid can do. He will need to move on from Tampa to have some real value, but I think this guy will be a good QB in the NFL someday.

Troy Smith, BAL - Age 25 - Again, stuck behind a good QB. Smith has some potential. If he gets out of Baltimore, he could be on everyone's radar real quick.

Pat White, MIA - Age 23 - Might never be anything special, but a QB that can run always has value. He still has a long way to go to be relevant.

Brady Quinn, DEN - Age 24 - The potential is there, and Orton could be beat out in training camp. He might make a splash on a decent team.

 

[Jerry Lawler]

Matt Ryan and Kevin Kolb would be great, but they're probably not bargains at their current price. Based on rankings I've seen so far, I think the best values are Stafford, Henne, Moore, and Dixon. I like what I've seen from each QB, but each has factors that seem to drive down the asking price:

Stafford - The perception that the Lions won't be able to field a competitive team, coupled with Stafford's injuries during his rookie year, have kept his value at a reasonable level. He and his weapons are too talented to let these concerns keep him off my team.

Henne - He wasn't drafted in the first round, couldn't get on the field until the middle of his 2nd season, and loses snaps to the wildcat formation. I like his prospects of improving on a good first season as a starter, and Brandon Marshall is a massive WR upgrade.

Moore - Run-first offense on a team that has drafted a QB of the future to develop behind him, but I think Moore takes this job and runs with it. Jake Delhomme and David Carr have made the Carolina QB job look much tougher than it is.

Dixon - Like Moore, Dixon is still affordable because he's unproven and there are major questions about his opportunity to be the long-term starter for a franchise. However, Dixon looked good when he got a chance as a rookie, and experience tells me that in my formats, it's usually a good idea to take a chance on QB's who can supplement their passing stats with significant running numbers.

 

[Max Power]

Im guessing the SuperMegaUltraUberOMGWTFBBQ tier = the age 26 Aaron Rodgers.

Yep, thats why I didn't include him. I forgot to mention that.I figured he would be ranked #1 by 99% of posters, so there was no reason to really include him. This is more ment to be a guy who is in QB 2-3 territory that could end up a Solid QB1 over time.

 

[Tanner9919]

Previous poster hit nail on the head: Aaron Rodgers..

I'd take Ryan out of Tier 1 , nothing he does seems to indicate that he'll be a 4000 yard, 28 TD QB anytime soon..I could be wrong but I just don't see the Falcons as being a wide-opened offense, they're still going to be a run-first offense.

in Ryans place in Tier 1, I would have added Alex Smith..

I'm not sure about Josh Freeman, not because he doesn't have a strong skill set, but because that team is in disarray, they have a lousy offense and the defense will get better but has a long way to go..5 years from now, perhaps that's when Freeman is a fantasy scoring machine, but 2010? no way.

how can you put Bradford in Tier 2 without him ever once throwing an NFL pass???

I'd also take Matt Leinart out of the equation altogether.he's just not that good.

 

[FUBAR]

In recent drafts I've paired Romo with Freeman and Rodgers with Sanchez. You don't necessarily need a young buck with Rodgers but I liked Sanchez for the value. In other leagues I have Flacco with Garrard (one of those times where the young guy starts most weeks), Schaub w/VY, and Brees w/Cassel. Where do you draw the line with "Young" QB? Is 26 young, is 27? You didn't include Cutler so I'm guessing 26 is young in your definition? He's 19 days older than VY.

I assume you have Sanchez in tier 3 because of the Jets run based offense but acquiring Braylon and Holmes in the last year show they'll be more willing to pass as he develops. As much as I like Flacco, I see those 2 as basic equals.



Matt Ryan

Mark Sanchez

Joe Flacco

Jay Cutler

Matthew Stafford

Josh Freeman

Kevin Kolb

Chad Henne

Vince Young

Sam Bradford

Charlie Whitehurst

Matt Moore

Matt Leinart

Alex Smith

Tim Tebow

Jimmy Clausen

Colt McCoy

Nate Davis

Brian Brohm

Dennis Dixon

Brady Quinn

 

[Max Power]

In recent drafts I've paired Romo with Freeman and Rodgers with Sanchez. You don't necessarily need a young buck with Rodgers but I liked Sanchez for the value. In other leagues I have Flacco with Garrard (one of those times where the young guy starts most weeks), Schaub w/VY, and Brees w/Cassel. Where do you draw the line with "Young" QB? Is 26 young, is 27? You didn't include Cutler so I'm guessing 26 is young in your definition? He's 19 days older than VY. I assume you have Sanchez in tier 3 because of the Jets run based offense but acquiring Braylon and Holmes in the last year show they'll be more willing to pass as he develops. As much as I like Flacco, I see those 2 as basic equals. Matt RyanMark SanchezJoe FlaccoJay CutlerMatthew StaffordJosh FreemanKevin KolbChad HenneVince YoungSam BradfordCharlie WhitehurstMatt MooreMatt LeinartAlex SmithTim TebowJimmy ClausenColt McCoyNate DavisBrian BrohmDennis DixonBrady Quinn

I just picked 26 out of the air. 27-28 range didn't seem to offer to much. Rodgers and Cutler and definitely QB1s in the 12 team leagues. So for this purpose, I didn't find it relivant to include them. Adding a year or two only really brings Cassell, Whitehurst, and Travaris Jackson to the discusion. I'm actually stoked to see Nate Davis on your list. I think he has real potential with the SF offense. The only reason I didn't include him was because I thought I would spend more time defending why he was on the list as opposed to talking why he deserved to be on the list. Just to note, if we do include Cutler in this, he would fall #2 behind Rodgers.

 

[zed2283]

I've been trying to get Flacco from another owner since this time last year, but haven't managed it yet. So I guess he's the one I would target.

 

[FUBAR]

In recent drafts I've paired Romo with Freeman and Rodgers with Sanchez. You don't necessarily need a young buck with Rodgers but I liked Sanchez for the value. In other leagues I have Flacco with Garrard (one of those times where the young guy starts most weeks), Schaub w/VY, and Brees w/Cassel. Where do you draw the line with "Young" QB? Is 26 young, is 27? You didn't include Cutler so I'm guessing 26 is young in your definition? He's 19 days older than VY. I assume you have Sanchez in tier 3 because of the Jets run based offense but acquiring Braylon and Holmes in the last year show they'll be more willing to pass as he develops. As much as I like Flacco, I see those 2 as basic equals. Matt RyanMark SanchezJoe FlaccoJay CutlerMatthew StaffordJosh FreemanKevin KolbChad HenneVince YoungSam BradfordCharlie WhitehurstMatt MooreMatt LeinartAlex SmithTim TebowJimmy ClausenColt McCoyNate DavisBrian BrohmDennis DixonBrady Quinn

I just picked 26 out of the air. 27-28 range didn't seem to offer to much. Rodgers and Cutler and definitely QB1s in the 12 team leagues. So for this purpose, I didn't find it relivant to include them. Adding a year or two only really brings Cassell, Whitehurst, and Travaris Jackson to the discusion. I'm actually stoked to see Nate Davis on your list. I think he has real potential with the SF offense. The only reason I didn't include him was because I thought I would spend more time defending why he was on the list as opposed to talking why he deserved to be on the list. Just to note, if we do include Cutler in this, he would fall #2 behind Rodgers.

If Cutler was a QB1 last year, it was barely. He was #13 ppg in my leagues in 2010 although he moves up with Warner gone. Depending on your scoring, Cutler scored about the same as Kyle Orton. Granted, we all expect him to improve but I'll keep him in the Stafford/Sanchez/Flacco tier. We know he can perform in the right system so there's slightly less risk vs. those 3 but I wonder how much was him vs the Oline and Marshall. Davis is a flier pick but with potential.

 

[The Real Hipster Doofus]

Out of that group my targets in order are....

Stafford

Bradford

Henne

I am not too big on Flacco or Ryan. I think their upside is limited to a low QB1 pretty much. I don't see the top 5 QB upside. I dealt Flacco and the 1.09 for Stafford and the 1.12 recently. Thats not to say I wouldn't have them on my team, but for the right price.

Call me a homer if you wish, but I am getting Stafford on every team that I can. He has shown me that he has everything he needs to be a top of the line NFL starter, and I think we will continue to see the Detroit offense evolve into one of the tops in the league (the defense is another story still). I think there is a very good chance he puts up low QB1 numbers THIS season, provided your league doesn't penalize too heavily for turnovers.

Bradford I think will be a star. I have taken him in rookie drafts on teams where I had bigger needs and good starting QB's already. I look at his future as a likely Rivers/Schaub when he is fully developed.

Henne has all the tools to be a very good QB in the league as well. He finally has a legit starting WR in Marshall to throw to. He has a good offensive line to protect him. The only thing that will hold back his value is my belief that Miami still wants to be a run first team and will be for the near future. That being said, I think he is Ryan/Flacco for about half the price.

I also like Kolb as well, but he is a guy I am not targeting at all. He is similar to Jamal Charles at RB to me. If you want him, you have to pay the full price for what his potential MIGHT let him be. You are paying the price for a top 10 dynasty QB. In other words, there is no discount for the significant risk involved with him. So I would add him at the right price, but I don't believe you will get that price from many.

The rest are just guys to me. I wouldn't go out of my way to acquire any of them.

 

[thriftyrocker]

The question is a little flawed because I think Peyton and Brady will play another 5 years. The only QB to worry about is Favre, considering no fantasy teams are relying on just Hasselbeck or just Garrard or just Delhomme. Even if I was building, I'd rather buy Brady than an upside QB like Stafford or Flacco assuming the price was the same.

My buys would be Stafford and Kolb.

Stafford - Detroit is turning it around on both sides of the ball. Stafford has an elite arm, and has shown he can have huge games. The only thing keeping his value down is the stigma of Detroit.

Kolb - Has developed into a good timing/rhythm QB and plays on one of the most pass happy offenses in the NFL. It's hard to imagine he isn't a #1 QB this year, barring injury.

My sells would be Smith and Young

Smith - Does not have top 5 upside. Coach wants to play smashmouth running football. Really I don't see him sticking much longer.

Young - Does not have top 5 upside. Reliance on legs will mean his career is over closer to 30 than 35

Considering someone listed Whitehurst above, you gotta mention Roethlisberger (6 mos younger than Whitehurst) as a potential buy. A team who has Ben as a #1 might be willing to do a Ben for Smith/Young/Henne trade, then after the suspension you've got 7 years of Ben.

 

[purplejesus28]

The top 3 for me behind Rodgers would be Kolb, Henne and Bradford.

 

[karmarooster]

I don't get why people are so high on Bradford... he'll be a project. STL s HORRIBLE. they've got next to nothing on the o-line, and very little for him to throw too. almost zero talent at WR and TE. He's going to dump it off to Sjax 10x a game. add in the fact that he took all the snaps from the shotgun in college.... he's going to take time to develop in the NFL and in fantasy. i just dont understand why he doesn't have the stigma of Tebow, Young, Alex Smith, etc. Yes he's accurate.... but he doesn't know hot to play in pro style offense. We saw how many years it took Alex Smith to develop into something respectable... that should be roughly the frame for Bradford. so go ahead and target him if you're not concerned about starting him for 3 years.

On the other hand, Stafford is the guy with WAY more upside than Ryan, Flacco, Freeman. Him and Kolb. Detroit has (one of) the best playmakers in the league at WR1, a solid guy at WR2, and weapons at TE1/2 and now RB. they play in a dome. and he's already shown he has the talent for making big plays (see 5 TDs vs. Cleveland last year). I doubt Ryan, Flacco and Freeman will ever toss 5 in a game. he played in pro-style offense in college, and showed limited flashes last year despite dealing with injuries.

the fact that he took such a beating behind that sieve of an o-line last year and still had some nice games.... he's going to be a stud once the o-line solidifies. Get him while you can, when everyone thinks that detroit will be a losing franchise forever (not that it matters for fantasy anyways....) and people have concerns about his injury history. that's where you get the discount. look at Schaub... his injury stigma still keeps his price low despite the fact that he led the league in yardage last year at 4,700. Stafford will throw for 4,000 before Ryan, Flacco, or Freeman, and probably Henne due to their conservatives offenses.

 

[EBF]

It's hard to say which young guys are going to take the next step.

One player I like more than most is Mark Sanchez. It's funny that Shonn Greene's FF value exploded after his playoff performance while Sanchez's didn't rise at all even though he played lights out during that three game stretch. People are WAY too quick to assume that the run-first offense utilized by the Jets in his rookie season will suppress his long term FF value. I heard the same things about Ben Roethlisberger and Tom Brady early in their careers. Once upon a time they were "game managers" too. It's short-sighted. Rex Ryan has already said that he envisions Sanchez eventually becoming the strength of this offense rather than the weakness. What people need to realize about Sanchez is that he was an early entry rookie with only one year of collegiate starting experience (compared to 3+ for Stafford, Freeman, and Henne). He's all upside.

The other guy I like from a risk/reward standpoint is Chad Henne. He put up some big games down the stretch last season and should benefit tremendously from the arrival of Brandon Marshall. I think he can at least become a Matt Hasselbeck type of QB for FF purposes. Maybe as soon as this season. Definitely an ideal QB2 in dynasty leagues.

 

[gandalas]

In our 2QB league, last season I traded for Chad Henne and Vince Young.

This season, I traded Vince Young for the 1.4 Rookie pick, which I then flipped for Jay Cutler.

So Chad Henne, Jay Cutler, and Sam Bradford (who I will hopefully get with my 1.3 rookie pick) will be the 3 young QBs that I have targeted and acquired since the middle of last season.

 

[FUBAR]

Considering someone listed Whitehurst above, you gotta mention Roethlisberger (6 mos younger than Whitehurst) as a potential buy. A team who has Ben as a #1 might be willing to do a Ben for Smith/Young/Henne trade, then after the suspension you've got 7 years of Ben.

I didn't realize Whitehurst was 28, but he is a cheap risk who could be worth taking.

 

[PranksterJD]

Best value at current price: Stafford, Sanchez, Freeman, Clausen

The safest calls for return on investment. I don't think Freeman's going to launch into the top 5, but he's cheaper than most on this list and could become a decent committee QB. For Clausen... I'm not a huge fan, but he seems to be dirt-cheap right now after the fall in the draft, and he's going to get a shot somewhere.



Paying for what you get: Flacco, Ryan, Alex Smith, Matt Moore

Price is too high on Flacco and Ryan to expect a lot of return, and I just don't think Smith or Moore has that much upside. Solid performers, maybe, but are they **really** that much better than the Thigpen-like guys you can pick off waivers by week 5?

Boom-Bust: Kolb, Vince, Henne, Tebow

Risk takers area. Big price right now given past production, but could be a pittance for what they become. Definite risk of tanking out though. Tebow makes the list because... well, he's Tim Tebow.

Too costly: Bradford, McCoy

Its not that I don't like Bradford, but I'd pay a little more for Stafford or Sanchez at this point.

Low cost/low value: Leinart, Quinn, Johnson

I'd love to put Josh Johnson higher.... just not sure what he **could** be is worth the wait.

 

[Bayhawks]

One player I like more than most is Mark Sanchez. It's funny that Shonn Greene's FF value exploded after his playoff performance while Sanchez's didn't rise at all even though he played lights out during that three game stretch.

"Lights out?"12/15 182 yards, 1 TD 0 Int12/23 100 yards, 1 TD, 1 Int17/30 257 yards, 2 TD, 1 IntIn a 16 game season, those "lights out" numbers average out to 362 attempts, 2875 yards, & 21 TDs. Greene, on the other hand:21 rushes, 135 yards, 1 TD23 rushes, 128 yards, 1 TD10 rushes, 41 yards, 0 TD (before he got hurt)In a 16 game season, those numbers average out to 288 carries, 1621 yards, and 11 TDs.Yeah, it's funny that Greene's FF value exploded while Sanchez's didn't.

 

[EBF]

One player I like more than most is Mark Sanchez. It's funny that Shonn Greene's FF value exploded after his playoff performance while Sanchez's didn't rise at all even though he played lights out during that three game stretch.

"Lights out?"12/15 182 yards, 1 TD 0 Int12/23 100 yards, 1 TD, 1 Int17/30 257 yards, 2 TD, 1 IntIn a 16 game season, those "lights out" numbers average out to 362 attempts, 2875 yards, & 21 TDs. Greene, on the other hand:21 rushes, 135 yards, 1 TD23 rushes, 128 yards, 1 TD10 rushes, 41 yards, 0 TD (before he got hurt)In a 16 game season, those numbers average out to 288 carries, 1621 yards, and 11 TDs.Yeah, it's funny that Greene's FF value exploded while Sanchez's didn't.

We obviously have a different way of evaluating QB stats. You focus on yardage totals and TDs. I focus on things like yards per attempt, TD/INT ratio, and QB rating. To me these say more about a QB's performance than the number of yards he threw for. In this regard Sanchez was stellar. Here are his numbers over that three game stretch:60.3% completions, 7.9 yards per attempt, 2:1 TD/INT ratio, 92.7 QB ratingAs an inexperienced rookie playing on the biggest stage in the world against three playoff teams, he played like a Pro Bowler. In the posts I'm seeing on these boards, no one is acknowledging it. Everyone is throwing around the "game manager" tag and attributing his success to his supporting cast. It sounds exactly like the things I heard about Roethlisberger and Brady earlier in their careers. I don't think Sanchez is a lock to become that kind of player, but I think he has a lot more upside than most people realize.

 

[cstu]

Stafford is the guy I targeted since his value is relatively low considering the weapons he has. Another big factor is his age - he is younger than Bradford and Clausen and the youngest in the league still. I was hoping that the Lions would get him a better LT than Jason Fox, but they added a great outlet weapon for him in Best.

 

[the UFFRM]

One player I like more than most is Mark Sanchez. It's funny that Shonn Greene's FF value exploded after his playoff performance while Sanchez's didn't rise at all even though he played lights out during that three game stretch.

"Lights out?"12/15 182 yards, 1 TD 0 Int12/23 100 yards, 1 TD, 1 Int17/30 257 yards, 2 TD, 1 IntIn a 16 game season, those "lights out" numbers average out to 362 attempts, 2875 yards, & 21 TDs. Greene, on the other hand:21 rushes, 135 yards, 1 TD23 rushes, 128 yards, 1 TD10 rushes, 41 yards, 0 TD (before he got hurt)In a 16 game season, those numbers average out to 288 carries, 1621 yards, and 11 TDs.Yeah, it's funny that Greene's FF value exploded while Sanchez's didn't.

We obviously have a different way of evaluating QB stats. You focus on yardage totals and TDs. I focus on things like yards per attempt, TD/INT ratio, and QB rating. To me these say more about a QB's performance than the number of yards he threw for. In this regard Sanchez was stellar. Here are his numbers over that three game stretch:60.3% completions, 7.9 yards per attempt, 2:1 TD/INT ratio, 92.7 QB ratingAs an inexperienced rookie playing on the biggest stage in the world against three playoff teams, he played like a Pro Bowler. In the posts I'm seeing on these boards, no one is acknowledging it. Everyone is throwing around the "game manager" tag and attributing his success to his supporting cast. It sounds exactly like the things I heard about Roethlisberger and Brady earlier in their careers. I don't think Sanchez is a lock to become that kind of player, but I think he has a lot more upside than most people realize.

I totally agree with EBF. Sanchez turned the corner in my eyes in that playoff stretch. Thomas Jones was the heart and soul of that offense in the regular season. Green will have some huge shoes to fill and Sanchez will be there to convert the extra third downs that Jones prevented from ever happening. Upside.

 

[thevidon]

If I am targeting a young QB I'm going for Stafford. He is a young Favre, and has Calvin Johnson to throw to. Sanchez will probably never be an every week starter in fantasy (although I think he will make a decent QB in real life).

 

[EBF]

Sanchez will probably never be an every week starter in fantasy

I don't understand how people can make a statement like this about a player who has only played one season.Honestly, how can you say this with a straight face? How do you know?

 

[thevidon]

Sanchez will probably never be an every week starter in fantasy

I don't understand how people can make a statement like this about a player who has only played one season.Honestly, how can you say this with a straight face? How do you know?

Its a general guess based on team philosophy and the fact that they play a ton of outdoor games in the Norheast. If he was playing in a dome all year for a team that emphasizes the pass I wouldn't make the same prognostication.

 

[EBF]

Sanchez will probably never be an every week starter in fantasy

I don't understand how people can make a statement like this about a player who has only played one season.Honestly, how can you say this with a straight face? How do you know?

Its a general guess based on team philosophy and the fact that they play a ton of outdoor games in the Norheast. If he was playing in a dome all year for a team that emphasizes the pass I wouldn't make the same prognostication.

To me it just seems like a lazy guess based mostly on the fact that the Jets were a run-first team last season. Well...teams tend to have a run-first philosophy when they have a rookie QB. It's just about the only way that they can compete, so it shouldn't be any surprise when a rookie QB is used in a game manager role. It's to be expected. You don't ask your rookie QB to sling it 35 times per game. Not if you're a coach who hopes to keep his job for more than a few minutes. Again, I'll throw out the examples of Roethlisberger and Brady. They both started their careers as "game managers" on playoff teams that didn't rely on them to single-handedly win games (and for added measure they both play for east coast teams with terrible winter weather). A lot of people looked at the early usage of Brady and Roethlisberger and jumped to the premature conclusion that these guys would never be elite FF QBs because they were just game managers who would never be asked to carry an offense on their own. Woops. I really don't agree with pigeon-holing a young QB into this role or that role based on what he did in the preschool portion of his career. If Sanchez becomes a Brady/Roethlisberger/McNabb/Rodgers caliber thrower then there's absolutely no good reason to believe that his FF results won't eventually reflect it. I understand if people don't think his talent is on that level, but to suggest that he lacks upside solely because of the way he was used as a rookie is just bad analysis.

 

[LessThanZero]

Judging by this thread, I still like Leinart as a dirt cheap guy to stash. Full disclosure: Leinart owner here -- got him as a VERY cheap trade throw-in last year.

Yeah, the odds are very bad that he'll put it all together this year (and he HAS to do it this year). Yeah, it's highly likely that he's going to stink it up. But out of all the QBs mentioned who are expected to start at the beginning of this season, he's by far the cheapest to acquire. If he does -- somehow -- put it all together, he's got a huge ceiling in Arizona.

Point being, I think if you take his costotential ratio into account, he's a much better option than he's being given credit for. Some of these guys command very high prices in QB-friendly leagues (Flacco, Ryan, Stafford, Sanchez, Bradford); Leinart can be had for peanuts. Unless you're currently relying on a single aging QB and need a young replacement with a decent floor, I think he's a great target.

Of course, if we're ranking without consideration for cost, he's very low on my list.

 

[thevidon]

Sanchez will probably never be an every week starter in fantasy

I don't understand how people can make a statement like this about a player who has only played one season.Honestly, how can you say this with a straight face? How do you know?

Its a general guess based on team philosophy and the fact that they play a ton of outdoor games in the Norheast. If he was playing in a dome all year for a team that emphasizes the pass I wouldn't make the same prognostication.

To me it just seems like a lazy guess based mostly on the fact that the Jets were a run-first team last season. Well...teams tend to have a run-first philosophy when they have a rookie QB. It's just about the only way that they can compete, so it shouldn't be any surprise when a rookie QB is used in a game manager role. It's to be expected. You don't ask your rookie QB to sling it 35 times per game. Not if you're a coach who hopes to keep his job for more than a few minutes. Again, I'll throw out the examples of Roethlisberger and Brady. They both started their careers as "game managers" on playoff teams that didn't rely on them to single-handedly win games (and for added measure they both play for east coast teams with terrible winter weather). A lot of people looked at the early usage of Brady and Roethlisberger and jumped to the premature conclusion that these guys would never be elite FF QBs because they were just game managers who would never be asked to carry an offense on their own.

Woops.

I really don't agree with pigeon-holing a young QB into this role or that role based on what he did in the preschool portion of his career. If Sanchez becomes a Brady/Roethlisberger/McNabb/Rodgers caliber thrower then there's absolutely no good reason to believe that his FF results won't eventually reflect it. I understand if people don't think his talent is on that level, but to suggest that he lacks upside solely because of the way he was used as a rookie is just bad analysis.

There are exceptions to everything.The question posed in this thread was "What young QBs are you targeting?". My answer was that I am targeting Stafford and avoiding Sanchez. They have relatively the same cost across the board right now, but I see a higher chance of Sanchez not becoming a weekly start in fantasy football. I don't see what is so wrong with my response.

Yes I am generalizing, but in the end I would rather have the QB in the situation that more consistently produces fantasy numbers (in a dome on a passing team with the #1 target in the league) over the QB in the situation that more consistently produces poor fantasy numbers (outdoors on a running team without a serious #1 target).

Can Stafford bust? Yes. Can Sanchez blow up? Yes. I'm just playing what I see as the odds here.

Just my 2c.

 

[nlgb1]

Aaron Rodgers.

PS. Less than zero - do you play in that dynasty with your little siblings or something? jesus, you couldnt have built a better team if you just picked players from a list

 

[LessThanZero]

PS. Less than zero - do you play in that dynasty with your little siblings or something? jesus, you couldnt have built a better team if you just picked players from a list

Local, very long running league (~25 years). Took over an absolutely horrid team about 10 years ago; took about 2 years to learn the ropes (ie, sucking), and about 5 of accumulating value anywhere and everywhere I could find it. It's no Shark Pool league; there's one or two pretty bad owners, but the rest range from decent to very good. It took a lot of time, effort, and luck.

 

[nlgb1]

PS. Less than zero - do you play in that dynasty with your little siblings or something? jesus, you couldnt have built a better team if you just picked players from a list

Local, very long running league (~25 years). Took over an absolutely horrid team about 10 years ago; took about 2 years to learn the ropes (ie, sucking), and about 5 of accumulating value anywhere and everywhere I could find it. It's no Shark Pool league; there's one or two pretty bad owners, but the rest range from decent to very good. It took a lot of time, effort, and luck.

...and reach arounds

 

[sholditch]

So from these comments sounds like Stafford, Leinart, and possibly Sanchez can possibly be had cheap. In 2qb leagues that makes a huge difference. I think of those three Stafford has the highest ceiling, plus he's young and has the weapons going for him. He doesn't really feel much riskier than someone like Moore or Bradford.

 

[jurb26]

So from these comments sounds like Stafford, Leinart, and possibly Sanchez can possibly be had cheap. In 2qb leagues that makes a huge difference. I think of those three Stafford has the highest ceiling, plus he's young and has the weapons going for him. He doesn't really feel much riskier than someone like Moore or Bradford.

I've seen it posted several times in this thread so I'm just going to touch on it now. Stafford is not going cheaply in any of the leagues I play in. Seems anyone owning him is looking for quite a bit in return. I'd say you will pay significantly more for him than a guy like Sanchez.

 

[sholditch]

So from these comments sounds like Stafford, Leinart, and possibly Sanchez can possibly be had cheap. In 2qb leagues that makes a huge difference. I think of those three Stafford has the highest ceiling, plus he's young and has the weapons going for him. He doesn't really feel much riskier than someone like Moore or Bradford.

I've seen it posted several times in this thread so I'm just going to touch on it now. Stafford is not going cheaply in any of the leagues I play in. Seems anyone owning him is looking for quite a bit in return. I'd say you will pay significantly more for him than a guy like Sanchez.

Where do you see the real value in this group?

 

[jurb26]

So from these comments sounds like Stafford, Leinart, and possibly Sanchez can possibly be had cheap. In 2qb leagues that makes a huge difference. I think of those three Stafford has the highest ceiling, plus he's young and has the weapons going for him. He doesn't really feel much riskier than someone like Moore or Bradford.

I've seen it posted several times in this thread so I'm just going to touch on it now. Stafford is not going cheaply in any of the leagues I play in. Seems anyone owning him is looking for quite a bit in return. I'd say you will pay significantly more for him than a guy like Sanchez.

Where do you see the real value in this group?

Stafford is the only one I'd personally care to own so I guess I'd still say him. I just don't know that he is a "value" play in the essence of what most think.

 

[LTF]

So from these comments sounds like Stafford, Leinart, and possibly Sanchez can possibly be had cheap. In 2qb leagues that makes a huge difference. I think of those three Stafford has the highest ceiling, plus he's young and has the weapons going for him. He doesn't really feel much riskier than someone like Moore or Bradford.

I've seen it posted several times in this thread so I'm just going to touch on it now. Stafford is not going cheaply in any of the leagues I play in. Seems anyone owning him is looking for quite a bit in return. I'd say you will pay significantly more for him than a guy like Sanchez.

Where do you see the real value in this group?

Stafford is the only one I'd personally care to own so I guess I'd still say him. I just don't know that he is a "value" play in the essence of what most think.

Can't believe Kolb is ranked so low... that offense is practically designed for a QB to put up big time fantasy stats. I'd even rank him over Flacco and Ryan because I think he'll likely throw for more yards and more TDs.

 

[Jayrod]

This thread makes me feel much better about my Cutler-Kolb-Stafford set of QB's in my dynasty league.

What was a crap position for me last year could be a plus this year and garner a quality player via trade. I know you all don't give a crap about my team, but it is just a picture of what being patient and drafting well in rookie drafts can do for you from year to year. I've even got a fourth starter in Jason Campbell on my roster as a nice throw in for someone needing a backup QB.

 

[Bob Magaw]

sanchez has some nice receiving weapons in edwards, holmes, cotchery & keller (not sure if they are all retained past 2010, but maybe possible in a post-cap landscape?)...

i agree with EBF that it can be hard to disentangle different possible reasons for the degree of run predominance... how much was just HC/OC stylistic preference, and how much would be the normal progression of developing a young QB?

imo freeman is underrated... i thought that before they added benn & williams...

definitely like some of the names mentioned... epecially stafford, kolb & bradford...

 

[D'OHtis]

I think the time to buy Kolb has passed. I think he's easily got Top 10 upside.

Matt Ryan is a good buy. Injury plagued 2009. I can see him finishing in the top 7-8 in 2010. Would be higher if they addressed WR2 (I like Harry Douglas, but think he'd be best served in the slot long term).

Stafford could take a step up. Still probaably a mid QB2 for 2010. Best & Scheffler are steps in the right direction. Not a huge Burleson fan, but he's a big step up from Bryant Johnson. I think they would have snagged Holmes had they known Pittsburgh would give him away.

 

[Bayhawks]

We obviously have a different way of evaluating QB stats. You focus on yardage totals and TDs. I focus on things like yards per attempt, TD/INT ratio, and QB rating. To me these say more about a QB's performance than the number of yards he threw for. In this regard Sanchez was stellar. Here are his numbers over that three game stretch:

60.3% completions, 7.9 yards per attempt, 2:1 TD/INT ratio, 92.7 QB rating

As an inexperienced rookie playing on the biggest stage in the world against three playoff teams, he played like a Pro Bowler. In the posts I'm seeing on these boards, no one is acknowledging it. Everyone is throwing around the "game manager" tag and attributing his success to his supporting cast. It sounds exactly like the things I heard about Roethlisberger and Brady earlier in their careers. I don't think Sanchez is a lock to become that kind of player, but I think he has a lot more upside than most people realize.

Perhaps we play in different kind of leagues, but in none of my leagues do QBs get FF points for YPA, TD/INT ratio, or QB rating. They DO get FF points for yards and TDs, however. And since your original post said:

It's funny that Shonn Greene's FF value exploded after his playoff performance while Sanchez's didn't rise at all even though he played lights out during that three game stretch.

it's safe to assume that you were referring to FF value, and not NFL value.Throwing out Sanchez's "lights out" playoff run with regards to his FF value is a bad example.

It's also interesting that you say people are throwing around the term "game manager." Well, when you cite his YPA, TD/INT ratio, QB rating, but not yards & TDs, that's what a game manager does well. You cite Roethlisberger and Brady. Well, early in their careers, they WERE game managers. It wasn't until Ben's 4th year that he was a top 10 QB, and it wasn't until Brady's 3rd. Both of them played 4 years in college, with Brady being a 2 year starter, and Roethlisberger being a 3 year starter. Sanchez was at USC for 3 years, redshirting one year, throwing only 7 passes in another, and staring for just 1 year. It's safe to say that Ben and Brady were more experienced QBs in their rookie seasons than Sanchez was. Therefore, it's also safe to assume that his learning curve might be longer than theirs was.

Finally, the offense that Brady played/plays in is set up for the QB to put up good stats. Ben's offense has evolved into a more passer-friendly offense. The NYJ offense is based on the run, so Sanchez isn't going to get enough opportunities to be a top-10 QB, not in the next few years anyway.

Bottom line, Sanchez isn't a great dynasty QB buy. Over the next few years, could he transform himself into one? Absolutely, but to claim his playoff performance is an indicator of that success is flawed logic, IMO.

 

[ty247]

We obviously have a different way of evaluating QB stats. You focus on yardage totals and TDs. I focus on things like yards per attempt, TD/INT ratio, and QB rating. To me these say more about a QB's performance than the number of yards he threw for. In this regard Sanchez was stellar. Here are his numbers over that three game stretch:

60.3% completions, 7.9 yards per attempt, 2:1 TD/INT ratio, 92.7 QB rating

As an inexperienced rookie playing on the biggest stage in the world against three playoff teams, he played like a Pro Bowler. In the posts I'm seeing on these boards, no one is acknowledging it. Everyone is throwing around the "game manager" tag and attributing his success to his supporting cast. It sounds exactly like the things I heard about Roethlisberger and Brady earlier in their careers. I don't think Sanchez is a lock to become that kind of player, but I think he has a lot more upside than most people realize.

Perhaps we play in different kind of leagues, but in none of my leagues do QBs get FF points for YPA, TD/INT ratio, or QB rating. They DO get FF points for yards and TDs, however. And since your original post said:

It's funny that Shonn Greene's FF value exploded after his playoff performance while Sanchez's didn't rise at all even though he played lights out during that three game stretch.

it's safe to assume that you were referring to FF value, and not NFL value.Throwing out Sanchez's "lights out" playoff run with regards to his FF value is a bad example.

It's also interesting that you say people are throwing around the term "game manager." Well, when you cite his YPA, TD/INT ratio, QB rating, but not yards & TDs, that's what a game manager does well. You cite Roethlisberger and Brady. Well, early in their careers, they WERE game managers. It wasn't until Ben's 4th year that he was a top 10 QB, and it wasn't until Brady's 3rd. Both of them played 4 years in college, with Brady being a 2 year starter, and Roethlisberger being a 3 year starter. Sanchez was at USC for 3 years, redshirting one year, throwing only 7 passes in another, and staring for just 1 year. It's safe to say that Ben and Brady were more experienced QBs in their rookie seasons than Sanchez was. Therefore, it's also safe to assume that his learning curve might be longer than theirs was.

Finally, the offense that Brady played/plays in is set up for the QB to put up good stats. Ben's offense has evolved into a more passer-friendly offense. The NYJ offense is based on the run, so Sanchez isn't going to get enough opportunities to be a top-10 QB, not in the next few years anyway.

Bottom line, Sanchez isn't a great dynasty QB buy. Over the next few years, could he transform himself into one? Absolutely, but to claim his playoff performance is an indicator of that success is flawed logic, IMO.

While I'm not a big Sanchez supporter, I can see where EBF is coming from. He feels Sanchez has the talent to become a top flight QB and has some of the weapons around him to achieve that. Instead of using the yards and touchdowns accumulated, he is using the QB 's playoff statistics to support the argument that if/when they switch to a pass oriented offensive he can support and produce large numbers.Case in point, you mention Roethlisberger and Brady being game managers from an team offensive philosophy standpoint.. What you aren't taking into consideration is, that those two quarterbacks were so talented that their teams changed offensive philosophys in order to take advantage of their QB's and the passing game. If you have a talented player, eventually you're going to find a way to put the ball in that talented players hands more often. If Sanchez is talented enough, they will change offensive philosophys from a run dominated offense to eventually a more pass friendly offense at which point Sanchez would be closer to reaching stud status. This is why if you feel Sanchez IS that talented, to buy him now at a low cost. I do however agree with you that it will probably take another 2-3 years in order for him to get there.

 

[Bayhawks]

While I'm not a big Sanchez supporter, I can see where EBF is coming from. He feels Sanchez has the talent to become a top flight QB and has some of the weapons around him to achieve that. Instead of using the yards and touchdowns accumulated, he is using the QB 's playoff statistics to support the argument that if/when they switch to a pass oriented offensive he can support and produce large numbers.

Case in point, you mention Roethlisberger and Brady being game managers from an team offensive philosophy standpoint.. What you aren't taking into consideration is, that those two quarterbacks were so talented that their teams changed offensive philosophys in order to take advantage of their QB's and the passing game. If you have a talented player, eventually you're going to find a way to put the ball in that talented players hands more often. If Sanchez is talented enough, they will change offensive philosophys from a run dominated offense to eventually a more pass friendly offense at which point Sanchez would be closer to reaching stud status. This is why if you feel Sanchez IS that talented, to buy him now at a low cost. I do however agree with you that it will probably take another 2-3 years in order for him to get there.

I can see where he's coming from too, but it's flawed reasoning. The Patriots didn't change their offensive scheme, Brady matured and developed, becoming a better FF (& NFL) QB in the process. The Steelers didn't change their offensive philosophy. In fact, this last offseason, they were really close to firing their OC because he didn't run enough. Ben's gunslinger style (which forces him to take extra hits) allows him to make extra plays, and FF points.I don't see the Jets deviating from their run-dominant philosophy anytime soon. If that were likely, I'd like Sanchez more. As it is, though, he's nowhere close to a top-10 FF QB.

 

[ty247]

While I'm not a big Sanchez supporter, I can see where EBF is coming from. He feels Sanchez has the talent to become a top flight QB and has some of the weapons around him to achieve that. Instead of using the yards and touchdowns accumulated, he is using the QB 's playoff statistics to support the argument that if/when they switch to a pass oriented offensive he can support and produce large numbers.

Case in point, you mention Roethlisberger and Brady being game managers from an team offensive philosophy standpoint.. What you aren't taking into consideration is, that those two quarterbacks were so talented that their teams changed offensive philosophys in order to take advantage of their QB's and the passing game. If you have a talented player, eventually you're going to find a way to put the ball in that talented players hands more often. If Sanchez is talented enough, they will change offensive philosophys from a run dominated offense to eventually a more pass friendly offense at which point Sanchez would be closer to reaching stud status. This is why if you feel Sanchez IS that talented, to buy him now at a low cost. I do however agree with you that it will probably take another 2-3 years in order for him to get there.

I can see where he's coming from too, but it's flawed reasoning. The Patriots didn't change their offensive scheme, Brady matured and developed, becoming a better FF (& NFL) QB in the process. The Steelers didn't change their offensive philosophy. In fact, this last offseason, they were really close to firing their OC because he didn't run enough. Ben's gunslinger style (which forces him to take extra hits) allows him to make extra plays, and FF points.I don't see the Jets deviating from their run-dominant philosophy anytime soon. If that were likely, I'd like Sanchez more. As it is, though, he's nowhere close to a top-10 FF QB.

I don't see it as flawed reasoning.. it's just longggg term thinking.. personally, I don't see Sanchez as a future top 5 QB.. and even if he was a future top 5, I don't see him reaching that for another 3 years at the earliest.

Sanchez at the moment, is not going cheap because of his playoff run QB rating and the press he got as a NY QB and his addition of Holmes.. I'd much rather buy Sanchez off a guy that has had him for 3 years and is frustrated he isn't a top5 or top10 QB like he thought he was going to be.. buying him right now would be still fairly expensive.

 

[Sabertooth]

Derek Anderson should at least be in the grab bag tier. He's got the possibility of winning that job over Leinart and tossing the rock to the best receiver in the NFL. He's also been in the Pro Bowl IIRC. I'd rather him than Troy Smith just on his potential to play with Fitz.

 

[EBF]

While I'm not a big Sanchez supporter, I can see where EBF is coming from. He feels Sanchez has the talent to become a top flight QB and has some of the weapons around him to achieve that. Instead of using the yards and touchdowns accumulated, he is using the QB 's playoff statistics to support the argument that if/when they switch to a pass oriented offensive he can support and produce large numbers.

Case in point, you mention Roethlisberger and Brady being game managers from an team offensive philosophy standpoint.. What you aren't taking into consideration is, that those two quarterbacks were so talented that their teams changed offensive philosophys in order to take advantage of their QB's and the passing game. If you have a talented player, eventually you're going to find a way to put the ball in that talented players hands more often. If Sanchez is talented enough, they will change offensive philosophys from a run dominated offense to eventually a more pass friendly offense at which point Sanchez would be closer to reaching stud status. This is why if you feel Sanchez IS that talented, to buy him now at a low cost. I do however agree with you that it will probably take another 2-3 years in order for him to get there.

I can see where he's coming from too, but it's flawed reasoning. The Patriots didn't change their offensive scheme, Brady matured and developed, becoming a better FF (& NFL) QB in the process. The Steelers didn't change their offensive philosophy. In fact, this last offseason, they were really close to firing their OC because he didn't run enough. Ben's gunslinger style (which forces him to take extra hits) allows him to make extra plays, and FF points.I don't see the Jets deviating from their run-dominant philosophy anytime soon. If that were likely, I'd like Sanchez more. As it is, though, he's nowhere close to a top-10 FF QB.

Where I have beef is with the "game manager" label. Sanchez isn't a game manager. He's a quarterback who played in a system that didn't ask him to throw often. This tells us nothing about his upside if and when he's unleashed. The reason I acquired Roethlisberger in virtually all of my leagues back when he was rated in the 15-20 range of dynasty QBs after his rookie season is because people used arguments like yours. "I don't play in leagues that give points for yards per attempt and QB rating." This kind of rebuttal misses a key point. If a player is extremely productive on a per-touch basis but his value is low because he didn't get a lot of opportunities, it suggests that he could be extremely productive if and when his opportunities increase. This works for RBs, WRs, and QBs. So when I look at things like yards per attempt, I don't see meaningless stats. I see stats that offer insights about a player's upside and potential.

Everyone thought Roethlisberger would always be a game manager because of how he was used in his rookie season. When I suggested that he had a lot more upside than people realized using arguments exactly like the ones I'm using to support Sanchez, they responded with things that sound exactly like what you're saying. I think the greater overall problem is a lopsided emphasis on "what have you done for me lately" and not enough foresight. If you start looking at what Sanchez can become rather than looking at what he was as a rookie, you might start to understand why dismissive claims about his long term upside are absurd this early in his career.

A good general rule of thumb is that good NFL QBs tend to become good FF QBs. If Sanchez ends up being a franchise caliber passer then it's pretty silly to think that his FF totals won't reflect it. Now if you don't happen to think he's the real deal then I'm fine with that, but to speak decisively about his long term potential is just silly at this point IMO.

Here's the Roethlisberger thread for the sake of reference: http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...=159670&hl=

 

[Bayhawks]

Where I have beef is with the "game manager" label. Sanchez isn't a game manager. He's a quarterback who played in a system that didn't ask him to throw often. This tells us nothing about his upside if and when he's unleashed.

The reason I acquired Roethlisberger in virtually all of my leagues back when he was rated in the 15-20 range of dynasty QBs after his rookie season is because people used arguments like yours. "I don't play in leagues that give points for yards per attempt and QB rating." This kind of rebuttal misses a key point. If a player is extremely productive on a per-touch basis but his value is low because he didn't get a lot of opportunities, it suggests that he could be extremely productive if and when his opportunities increase. This works for RBs, WRs, and QBs. So when I look at things like yards per attempt, I don't see meaningless stats. I see stats that offer insights about a player's upside and potential.

Everyone thought Roethlisberger would always be a game manager because of how he was used in his rookie season. When I suggested that he had a lot more upside than people realized using arguments exactly like the ones I'm using to support Sanchez, they responded with things that sound exactly like what you're saying. I think the greater overall problem is a lopsided emphasis on "what have you done for me lately" and not enough foresight. If you start looking at what Sanchez can become rather than looking at what he was as a rookie, you might start to understand why dismissive claims about his long term upside are absurd this early in his career.

A good general rule of thumb is that good NFL QBs tend to become good FF QBs. If Sanchez ends up being a franchise caliber passer then it's pretty silly to think that his FF totals won't reflect it. Now if you don't happen to think he's the real deal then I'm fine with that, but to speak decisively about his long term potential is just silly at this point IMO.

Here's the Roethlisberger thread for the sake of reference: http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...=159670&hl=

Isn't that (the bolded) what you are doing? You are speaking about his long term potential when you say you feel he can be a top QB. I don't agree with you, at least not in the foreseeable future. Nothing has been done or said to indicate to me that the Jets are going to move away from their offensive philosophy of pounding the ball. They have the same coach, same OC, etc. I do see Sanchez getting more pass attempts, because he's not a rookie any more, but I don't see him getting enough attempts to be a top QB.BTW-you posted "Sanchez isn't a game manager. He's a quarterback who played in a system that didn't ask him to throw often." If that isn't a game manager, then what is your definition? To me, that is the exact definition of a game manager QB.

 

[cstu]

Where I have beef is with the "game manager" label. Sanchez isn't a game manager. He's a quarterback who played in a system that didn't ask him to throw often. This tells us nothing about his upside if and when he's unleashed.

The reason I acquired Roethlisberger in virtually all of my leagues back when he was rated in the 15-20 range of dynasty QBs after his rookie season is because people used arguments like yours. "I don't play in leagues that give points for yards per attempt and QB rating." This kind of rebuttal misses a key point. If a player is extremely productive on a per-touch basis but his value is low because he didn't get a lot of opportunities, it suggests that he could be extremely productive if and when his opportunities increase. This works for RBs, WRs, and QBs. So when I look at things like yards per attempt, I don't see meaningless stats. I see stats that offer insights about a player's upside and potential.

Everyone thought Roethlisberger would always be a game manager because of how he was used in his rookie season. When I suggested that he had a lot more upside than people realized using arguments exactly like the ones I'm using to support Sanchez, they responded with things that sound exactly like what you're saying. I think the greater overall problem is a lopsided emphasis on "what have you done for me lately" and not enough foresight. If you start looking at what Sanchez can become rather than looking at what he was as a rookie, you might start to understand why dismissive claims about his long term upside are absurd this early in his career.

A good general rule of thumb is that good NFL QBs tend to become good FF QBs. If Sanchez ends up being a franchise caliber passer then it's pretty silly to think that his FF totals won't reflect it. Now if you don't happen to think he's the real deal then I'm fine with that, but to speak decisively about his long term potential is just silly at this point IMO.

Here's the Roethlisberger thread for the sake of reference: http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...=159670&hl=

Isn't that (the bolded) what you are doing? You are speaking about his long term potential when you say you feel he can be a top QB. I don't agree with you, at least not in the foreseeable future. Nothing has been done or said to indicate to me that the Jets are going to move away from their offensive philosophy of pounding the ball. They have the same coach, same OC, etc. I do see Sanchez getting more pass attempts, because he's not a rookie any more, but I don't see him getting enough attempts to be a top QB.BTW-you posted "Sanchez isn't a game manager. He's a quarterback who played in a system that didn't ask him to throw often." If that isn't a game manager, then what is your definition? To me, that is the exact definition of a game manager QB.

The Jets are one hit to Greene away from becoming a passing team.

 

[Novice2]

I imagine anyone who owns a Manning, Brady, McNabb, Favre or Hasselbeck is starting to eye the younger talent as a potential replacement down the road. Who are you targetting and why? I've included Tiering with a brief one liner about each player. I'm sure some of you have your favorite sleeper picks that I neglected to include on this list, so tell me why they need to be on here.

Tier 1

Joe Flacco, BAL - Age 25 - Two solid seasons and now has a stud WR, this should be his year to shine.

Matt Ryan, ATL - Age 24 - Seems to be a very well rounded QB at the age of 24, I see now reason he wont become and stay a top 10 QB for many years.

Kevin Kolb, PHI - Age 25 - Might be a bit of a high ranking, but the eagles have plenty of young playmakers and he did show some big time flash last season.

Tier 2

Matthew Stafford, DET - Age 22 - a #1 overall pick with a good arm. Has a young Stud WR that can go get any ball. Det added some more playmakers this year.

Chad Henne, MIA - Age 24 - Solid QB that now has a big time weapon. Main concern here is that Miami is built to run.

Vince Young, TEN - Age 26 - His rushing yards will always give him value. If Britt and Cook develop, he could have some nice options to throw to.

Sam Bradford, STL - Age 22 - Unproven, but sounded like multiple NFL franchises think he could be the guy.

Alex Smith, SF - Age 25 - I'm not ready to give up on him, SF should be a high scoring Offense this year. Although I think most will be on the ground.

Tier 3

Mark Sanchez, NYJ - Age 23 - Showed flashes, and has some big weapons. Could be great, but the ball control Offense will limit fantasy production.

Matt Leinart, ARI - Age 26 - Make or break year IMO. But with Larry Fitz, just putting the ball up for grab could be enough for leinart to get by.

Josh Freeman, TB - Age 22 - Obviously Tampa has committed to him. I'm not expecting too much for the next year or two, but this cat could be good.

Matt Moore, CAR - Age 25 - I think Moore is "ok". Steve Smith can still make a decent QB look good. The problem is that Moore is on a short leash. Clausen is probably more talented.

Tier 4

Tim Tebow, DEN - Age 22 - Worth the risk for the potential upside. I know people hate him, and while I'm not a fan, he could pan out.

Jimmy Clausen, CAR - Age 22 - Will be the Carolina starter in a couple years. Now much value right now.

Dennis Dixon, PIT - Age 24 - This is his chance to show what hes got. I think he will beat out Lefty for the starting job while Ben is gone.

Colt McCoy, CLE - Age 23 - Hard to get excited about a Cleveland QB, but he will get his shot in 2011, if not sooner.

Tier 5 AKA Grab Bag

Josh Johnson, TB - Age 23 - Was always a project QB, and I like what this kid can do. He will need to move on from Tampa to have some real value, but I think this guy will be a good QB in the NFL someday.

Troy Smith, BAL - Age 25 - Again, stuck behind a good QB. Smith has some potential. If he gets out of Baltimore, he could be on everyone's radar real quick.

Pat White, MIA - Age 23 - Might never be anything special, but a QB that can run always has value. He still has a long way to go to be relevant.

Brady Quinn, DEN - Age 24 - The potential is there, and Orton could be beat out in training camp. He might make a splash on a decent team.

 

[bweiser]

The question is a little flawed because I think Peyton and Brady will play another 5 years. The only QB to worry about is Favre, considering no fantasy teams are relying on just Hasselbeck or just Garrard or just Delhomme. Even if I was building, I'd rather buy Brady than an upside QB like Stafford or Flacco assuming the price was the same.

My buys would be Stafford and Kolb.

Stafford - Detroit is turning it around on both sides of the ball. Stafford has an elite arm, and has shown he can have huge games. The only thing keeping his value down is the stigma of Detroit.

Kolb - Has developed into a good timing/rhythm QB and plays on one of the most pass happy offenses in the NFL. It's hard to imagine he isn't a #1 QB this year, barring injury.

My sells would be Smith and Young

Smith - Does not have top 5 upside. Coach wants to play smashmouth running football. Really I don't see him sticking much longer.

Young - Does not have top 5 upside. Reliance on legs will mean his career is over closer to 30 than 35

Considering someone listed Whitehurst above, you gotta mention Roethlisberger (6 mos younger than Whitehurst) as a potential buy. A team who has Ben as a #1 might be willing to do a Ben for Smith/Young/Henne trade, then after the suspension you've got 7 years of Ben.

Seriously? I would e-mail the Roethlisberger owner in my league now if I thought Smith plus even Boldin would get me a sniff of Roethlisberger. And that owner loves Boldin. Smith would be nothing more than a throw-in to the deal. Young? Please. Henne? Owners might be interested, but no way are they giving up the No. 8 QB in the league (last year).

 

[jurb26]

So from these comments sounds like Stafford, Leinart, and possibly Sanchez can possibly be had cheap. In 2qb leagues that makes a huge difference. I think of those three Stafford has the highest ceiling, plus he's young and has the weapons going for him. He doesn't really feel much riskier than someone like Moore or Bradford.

I've seen it posted several times in this thread so I'm just going to touch on it now. Stafford is not going cheaply in any of the leagues I play in. Seems anyone owning him is looking for quite a bit in return. I'd say you will pay significantly more for him than a guy like Sanchez.

Where do you see the real value in this group?

Stafford is the only one I'd personally care to own so I guess I'd still say him. I just don't know that he is a "value" play in the essence of what most think.

Can't believe Kolb is ranked so low... that offense is practically designed for a QB to put up big time fantasy stats. I'd even rank him over Flacco and Ryan because I think he'll likely throw for more yards and more TDs.

I recently offered the 1.02 pick or D. Bryant for Stafford and was turned down. I highly doubt that offer is refused for any of the other QBs in question here.

 

[Bayhawks]

The Jets are one hit to Greene away from becoming a passing team.

Right, and last year, the Browns were one hit to Lewis from becoming a passing team.The Bills were one hit to Lynch away from becoming a passing team.The 'Skins were one hit to Portis away from becoming a passing team.The Dolphins were one hit to Brown away from becoming a passing team.The Titans were one hit to Johnson away from becoming a passing team.The Jaguars were one hit to MJD away from becoming a passing team.Just because a RB can/does get hurt doesn't make a QB a viable FF option.

 

[bostonfred]

Amazed at how little respect Leinart gets on these boards. He's such a huge value pick right now. When talent finally meets opportunity, you don't talk about how he's a "throw-in" in a deal, you talk about how you want to have him on your roster when he blows up. Even if you don't believe in him long term, you can play flip this house with him and turn him around after his first big game. And with Fitzgerald and co., against the NFC West, he will have some big games this year.