Just saying that the odds are not with him.
The odds aren't with most of the players in the league.
But, rarely has one looked so much like a bust and turned into a stud.
I disagree. There have been countless quality players who have produced disappointing statistics early in their careers. Tim Brown had a solid rookie year, but he didn't have his first 1,000 yard season until his sixth season. He then had nine straight 1,000 yard years. I could rattle off a list of WRs who took several years to make an impact. You could argue that they're not similar to Williams, but every player is a unique case. If you want to limit the talk to top 10 picks then you could look at someone like Plaxico Burress as a good cause for optimism. He was awful as a rookie, improved as a sophomore, and great as a third year player.
I also think you're exaggerating the poor quality of Reggie's play. He caught over 50% of his targets last year and averaged almost 50 yards/game down the stretch. Hardly great production, but not exactly lousy for a WR2-3.
I also think you need to keep in mind that he's still extremely young. He's younger than Mark Clayton, Matt Jones, Roddy White, and Troy Williamson. He's only a few months older than Greg Jennings and Sinorice Moss.
I think prematurely writing off untested young players is one of the great re-occuring errors that I see in my dynasty leagues. Everyone is already willing to throw guys like Reggie Williams, Mike Williams, Charles Rogers, and William Green on the trash heap despite past examples of players like Tim Brown and Thomas Jones.
My attitude is that you should never count out a talented young player until he's out of the league. These guys were picked high for a reason. Sure, some of them will ultimately join Trung Canidate and Curtis Enis in the great bust abyss, but some of them will pay dividends to owners patient enough to ride out the rocky years.
I don't actually have high expectations for Williams, but I wouldn't be so bold to suggest that perennial 1,000 yard status is beyond the realm of possibility. The fact is, you just don't know with these guys.
I guess this is one of those times that the answer will become apparent very shortly.
I agree that next year is an important one for Williams. He has a chance to prove himself as a starting-caliber WR.