Early 1 QB Draft Thoughts (1 Viewer)

[PantherThunder]

I am seeing a lot of reaches for 3rd round RB's, which is leaving second round WR and TE's available in the mid to late 2nd. If I was rebuilding and had some late 1st early 2nd round pick I might think to see how I could trade back and get a bunch of picks in mid to late 2nd.

Thoughts?

 

[greenmountaingoat]

That's not too far off but it seems like everybody has someone they like. The best strategy would be to trade back 1-2 spots like 5 times and see how far you could take it. When your guy's sitting there one or two picks ahead, it's like that third rounder is burning a hole in your pocket. You could probably then roll them over or trade two-for a guy that's an older starter. If you're rebuilding, your going to want to try to roll those to 24 because your roster is going to be jammed af.

I've ended up feeling like there's a **** ton of value dumping at the end of the second and beginning of the third. 1.09-3.04 is like a giant, flat tier. No idea what format you're playing in but in 1QB that's my sense.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

3rd round RBs drafted into a decent situation have always been early picks in fantasy drafts.

FWIW, barring 2019, the hit rate on 2nd round WRs/TEs is probably way lower than you're thinking. There are some studs in there for sure, but a whooollllllllllllllllleeeeeeee lot of fluff. And most of the guys that ended up being good were guys that were projected to be 1st round picks but fell further than expected in the NFL draft, which doesn't really describe most of this year's guys.

The TEs are real bad. It's pretty much Dallas Goedert and a whole lotta meh (maybe guys like Hunter Henry that had a good year or two) over the last decade.

 

[travdogg]

3rd round RBs drafted into a decent situation have always been early picks in fantasy drafts.

FWIW, barring 2019, the hit rate on 2nd round WRs/TEs is probably way lower than you're thinking. There are some studs in there for sure, but a whooollllllllllllllllleeeeeeee lot of fluff. And most of the guys that ended up being good were guys that were projected to be 1st round picks but fell further than expected in the NFL draft, which doesn't really describe most of this year's guys.

The TEs are real bad. It's pretty much Dallas Goedert and a whole lotta meh (maybe guys like Hunter Henry that had a good year or two) over the last decade.

I wouldn't say the TE's have been that bad, there haven't been many round 2 TEs in the last few years, but of the ones there has been besides Goedert and Henry, Freiermuth has been solid so far, and Gesicki had his moments. Really the only outright busts have been Adam Shaheen, and Drew Sample (who everyone knew was a blocker) even guys like Kmet, Everett, Irv Smith (when healthy) have had some occasional value and are all starters right now.

Going back a full decade (not just back to Henry) adds guys like Maxx Williams, Gavin Escobar and Jace Amaro, but also adds Zach Ertz. It feels like teams are getting smarter about TEs of late and not reaching for guys.

This year's TE class is something special compared to most years, I think there might be 4-5 useful rookie TEs, I especially think Mayer (a 2nd round TE) could hit the ground running on a team likely to be behind a lot.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

3rd round RBs drafted into a decent situation have always been early picks in fantasy drafts.

FWIW, barring 2019, the hit rate on 2nd round WRs/TEs is probably way lower than you're thinking. There are some studs in there for sure, but a whooollllllllllllllllleeeeeeee lot of fluff. And most of the guys that ended up being good were guys that were projected to be 1st round picks but fell further than expected in the NFL draft, which doesn't really describe most of this year's guys.

The TEs are real bad. It's pretty much Dallas Goedert and a whole lotta meh (maybe guys like Hunter Henry that had a good year or two) over the last decade.

I wouldn't say the TE's have been that bad, there haven't been many round 2 TEs in the last few years, but of the ones there has been besides Goedert and Henry, Freiermuth has been solid so far, and Gesicki had his moments. Really the only outright busts have been Adam Shaheen, and Drew Sample (who everyone knew was a blocker) even guys like Kmet, Everett, Irv Smith (when healthy) have had some occasional value and are all starters right now.

Going back a full decade (not just back to Henry) adds guys like Maxx Williams, Gavin Escobar and Jace Amaro, but also adds Zach Ertz. It feels like teams are getting smarter about TEs of late and not reaching for guys.

This year's TE class is something special compared to most years, I think there might be 4-5 useful rookie TEs, I especially think Mayer (a 2nd round TE) could hit the ground running on a team likely to be behind a lot.

None of those guys are worth much anything in fantasy though, other than really deep leagues. They're a dime a dozen, and you can pretty much pick up an equivalent off the waiver wire or for a late pick at any given time in most leagues.

If I'm going to throw a dart I'd much rather the bullseye be Kamara, Kareem Hunt, David Johnson than Goedert, Hunter Henry, Gerald Everrett.

 

[pinkstapler]

Historically, looking at rookie vs soph. year ADP as it pertains to a players individual value; TEs almost never gain value and quite often lose value. While I don't necessarily agree with the "you can buy them cheaper next year" concept because owners values tend to stay more stagnant and most people knows it takes a few years for TEs to catch on; when looking at rookies from a pure value standpoint, you have greater odds of your investment increasing by drafting a WR or a RB over a TE. So if you don't like any players available, and you can't trade out, value would tell you to avoid tight ends there in the 2nd round.

On the flip side, I do agree with Trav that this years TE class profiles pretty darn well, and other than GB taking two, they mostly have good landing spots. Also this years draft class is generally weak and volatile. So I wouldn't be surprised if this year to next year breaks that value trend I mentioned above. I'd be happy with Kincaid, LaPorta, and Mayer in the 2nd round. I think Musgrave truthers can make the case for him as well despite the competition from Kraft. And gun to my head, if all the players I want are gone by 2.10-2.12 I may still take a flyer on Washington for his unbelievable physical size and traits. Landing spot kinda stinks behind Freiermuth, but he's an analytical unicorn who's lack of production can easily be explained by playing behind the best TE prospect in a long, long time (I like him more than I liked Pitts).

 

[JohnnyU]

Historically, looking at rookie vs soph. year ADP as it pertains to a players individual value; TEs almost never gain value and quite often lose value. While I don't necessarily agree with the "you can buy them cheaper next year" concept because owners values tend to stay more stagnant and most people knows it takes a few years for TEs to catch on; when looking at rookies from a pure value standpoint, you have greater odds of your investment increasing by drafting a WR or a RB over a TE. So if you don't like any players available, and you can't trade out, value would tell you to avoid tight ends there in the 2nd round.

On the flip side, I do agree with Trav that this years TE class profiles pretty darn well, and other than GB taking two, they mostly have good landing spots. Also this years draft class is generally weak and volatile. So I wouldn't be surprised if this year to next year breaks that value trend I mentioned above. I'd be happy with Kincaid, LaPorta, and Mayer in the 2nd round. I think Musgrave truthers can make the case for him as well despite the competition from Kraft. And gun to my head, if all the players I want are gone by 2.10-2.12 I may still take a flyer on Washington for his unbelievable physical size and traits. Landing spot kinda stinks behind Freiermuth, but he's an analytical unicorn who's lack of production can easily be explained by playing behind the best TE prospect in a long, long time (I like him more than I liked Pitts).

Great post. I would add Kuntz to that list. He tested very well. One thing that is the hardest to stomach are those that show promise early and disappear. I suppose that's just the breaks of FF.

 

[Wigglytuff's Gruff]

playing behind the best TE prospect in a long, long time (I like him more than I liked Pitts).

Where do you anticipate Bowers going in fantasy and the actual NFL draft?

Not team specific obviously but the sort of range.

He seems like he might (might) just be a bit too small to be a true game breaker in the NFL.

 

[pinkstapler]

Historically, looking at rookie vs soph. year ADP as it pertains to a players individual value; TEs almost never gain value and quite often lose value. While I don't necessarily agree with the "you can buy them cheaper next year" concept because owners values tend to stay more stagnant and most people knows it takes a few years for TEs to catch on; when looking at rookies from a pure value standpoint, you have greater odds of your investment increasing by drafting a WR or a RB over a TE. So if you don't like any players available, and you can't trade out, value would tell you to avoid tight ends there in the 2nd round.

On the flip side, I do agree with Trav that this years TE class profiles pretty darn well, and other than GB taking two, they mostly have good landing spots. Also this years draft class is generally weak and volatile. So I wouldn't be surprised if this year to next year breaks that value trend I mentioned above. I'd be happy with Kincaid, LaPorta, and Mayer in the 2nd round. I think Musgrave truthers can make the case for him as well despite the competition from Kraft. And gun to my head, if all the players I want are gone by 2.10-2.12 I may still take a flyer on Washington for his unbelievable physical size and traits. Landing spot kinda stinks behind Freiermuth, but he's an analytical unicorn who's lack of production can easily be explained by playing behind the best TE prospect in a long, long time (I like him more than I liked Pitts).

Great post. I would add Kuntz to that list. He tested very well. One thing that is the hardest to stomach are those that show promise early and disappear. I suppose that's just the breaks of FF.

Yeah TBH *lowers voice to a whisper* taking ADP into account, Kuntz in the 4th/5th is currently one of the better values in rookie drafts and a swing I think I'm going to be taking in several leagues. Jets team on the whole is on the upswing, and I don't think Conklin or Uzomah are huge road blocks for him.

 

[menobrown]

I may still take a flyer on Washington for his unbelievable physical size and traits. Landing spot kinda stinks behind Freiermuth, but he's an analytical unicorn

Is he really though? Seems kind of on par with Jelani Woods and Kuntz to me, expect for the 11" mitts. .

Similar size/speed as Witten which I find kind of ironic that for the past 10+ years or so Witten is sort of held up as how as the beacon of success for the non-athletic TE's meanwhile Washington is similar size/speed and regarded as an athletic marvel.

 

[pinkstapler]

playing behind the best TE prospect in a long, long time (I like him more than I liked Pitts).

Where do you anticipate Bowers going in fantasy and the actual NFL draft?

Not team specific obviously but the sort of range.

He seems like he might (might) just be a bit too small to be a true game breaker in the NFL.

NFL draft: I think Bowers is a lock for the 1st round and would project him easily to the middle of it. I don't think he'll go as high as Pitts, and Falcons fans I know are still upset they didn't take Surtain or Parsons there (and lesser but true Chase or Fields). I would agree it wasn't a great value pick. But I also didn't think Gibbs would go as high as he did this year, so who knows really.

I don't have a great read on the 2024 rookie class as a whole being that I tend to watch more college football in January/Feb/March than I do in season. It's hard enough to get a few hours free time in front of the TV Sundays, my wife would murder me if I started doing it Saturdays as well lol. But I think we'll be seeing the same Pitts-esque "how high in the first round should I take Bowers" threads popping up this time next year. Even if next year is flush with talent, I'd be hard pressed to believe there are 12+ players who impact their position in fantasy as much as Bowers could. All this prior to landing spot of course.

He's smaller than Pitts for sure, but I believe is actually graded as a much better blocker. I think he's a better "all-around" TE, stylistically like Mayer this year, but just better in all facets. The thing with Bower's which I feel has been overlooked to this point is he basically out-performed what Pitts did in college except was able to do it his freshman year while Pitts was a junior for his breakout. Pitts did miss some games, but he was also in pass happy Florida offense working with Kyle Trash. Bowers did it at Georgia in a meh passing offense with with JT Daniels and Stetson Bennett. I'm excited to see how he builds on it again this season coming up to the draft.

 

[pinkstapler]

I may still take a flyer on Washington for his unbelievable physical size and traits. Landing spot kinda stinks behind Freiermuth, but he's an analytical unicorn

Is he really though? Seems kind of on par with Jelani Woods and Kuntz to me, expect for the 11" mitts. .

Similar size/speed as Witten which I find kind of ironic that for the past 10+ years or so Witten is sort of held up as how as the beacon of success for the non-athletic TE's meanwhile Washington is similar size/speed and regarded as an athletic marvel.

Witten speed score was 87th percentile, Washington's was 96th. Analytical unicorn was likely too much hyperbole lol, and doesn't put any focus where a lot of this "analysis" is coming from which is his tape, subjective as it may be. He's a monster on the field IMO. Jelani's numbers and RAS are definitely comparable to Washington, but it just never popped off the screen to me the same way.

Throwing his numbers out the window, he just looks to move faster and much more agile than he should for his size, and absolutely dominated SEC future NFL linemen week in and out. Just looks violent. And a criticism that may actually be promising; his blocking technique isn't great lol. If/when he learns better footwork and hand placement, I think he'll be better than a lot of actual NFL lineman which is kinda crazy for a tight end. It's really when you add in the (definitely limited sample size) of his passing game that's what elicited that unicorn statement from me. Getting him in the middle of the field off play action and get him the ball and he's going to put whatever MLB or crashing safety that gets to him first on their butt every time. The tape reminded me so much of Gronk in that way it was uncanny. And then his combine pretty much hit Gronks number for number. It's def. rose colored glasses view. Most TEs don't ever hit that level. But I feel like overall Washington is built in a way where if he does, he'll exceed what most others would given the same opportunity.

 

[massraider]

I play in deep roster, IDP, think 45 roster spots. I can roster players and wait a year.

I'm digging the all the TE, especially where they are going. The hellscape that TE is right now makes the next top TE more valuable, not less valuable. I have 8/9, and the only reason I won't take Kincaid/LaPorta is because I might trade down, and still take LaPorta.

All those WR after QJ/Addison, if they hit, I can always trade for that guy. You can always trade for Hunter Renfrow or Jarvis Landry.
I would rather chase the next Kelce then the next Steve Smith. Flowers/Downs/Charb/Stroud/Kendre/Roschon are all dudes I don't like at ADP.

 

[eighsse2]

So here is where I am at on this year's draft. Trying to check myself for sanity. I have the #1 (easy), #8, #9, #11, #13, #18, #19, and #20. My league is 12-team, 20-man, PPR, QRRWWFKD, 6 pts all TDs. This makes it a little RB crazy, and in my opinion the league leans significantly farther toward RB than it should. The first round is typically 8-10 RB's. Last year was 11. My hope of course was to get RB's with those #8 and #9 picks. But as you can tell, those picks would likely be RB6-7 at best, RB8-9 at worst. My draft board currently has WR's at #8, #11, #13, #14, and the rest of the top 14 are RB's. Suppose 2 WR out of JSN, Addison, Johnston are still there at my 8/9 spot. Am I fully insane if I only take 1 WR there along with, say, the RB7 on my draft board? Or am I wisely drafting to the twisted reality in which the league exists? In other words, is it in any way acceptable to pass on Addison/Johnston to take the 7th RB on my board? ... Just trade down?

 

[Scoresman]

I think answering the perennial question of whether or not players like Derrick Henry and Travis Kelce have hit the wall is pretty important. Last year, they both had these question marks and I faded both, focusing on WR and other RBs. Had I not, I probably would've at least had Kelce on my team and done a lot better.

 

[acarey50]

So here is where I am at on this year's draft. Trying to check myself for sanity. I have the #1 (easy), #8, #9, #11, #13, #18, #19, and #20. My league is 12-team, 20-man, PPR, QRRWWFKD, 6 pts all TDs. This makes it a little RB crazy, and in my opinion the league leans significantly farther toward RB than it should. The first round is typically 8-10 RB's. Last year was 11. My hope of course was to get RB's with those #8 and #9 picks. But as you can tell, those picks would likely be RB6-7 at best, RB8-9 at worst. My draft board currently has WR's at #8, #11, #13, #14, and the rest of the top 14 are RB's. Suppose 2 WR out of JSN, Addison, Johnston are still there at my 8/9 spot. Am I fully insane if I only take 1 WR there along with, say, the RB7 on my draft board? Or am I wisely drafting to the twisted reality in which the league exists? In other words, is it in any way acceptable to pass on Addison/Johnston to take the 7th RB on my board? ... Just trade down?

Can you package picks to trade up?

Diversify into next year and get some 2024 picks?

 

[eighsse2]

So here is where I am at on this year's draft. Trying to check myself for sanity. I have the #1 (easy), #8, #9, #11, #13, #18, #19, and #20. My league is 12-team, 20-man, PPR, QRRWWFKD, 6 pts all TDs. This makes it a little RB crazy, and in my opinion the league leans significantly farther toward RB than it should. The first round is typically 8-10 RB's. Last year was 11. My hope of course was to get RB's with those #8 and #9 picks. But as you can tell, those picks would likely be RB6-7 at best, RB8-9 at worst. My draft board currently has WR's at #8, #11, #13, #14, and the rest of the top 14 are RB's. Suppose 2 WR out of JSN, Addison, Johnston are still there at my 8/9 spot. Am I fully insane if I only take 1 WR there along with, say, the RB7 on my draft board? Or am I wisely drafting to the twisted reality in which the league exists? In other words, is it in any way acceptable to pass on Addison/Johnston to take the 7th RB on my board? ... Just trade down?

Can you package picks to trade up?

Diversify into next year and get some 2024 picks?

On the former, I could try (and have), but there's no way I'm getting the #2. #3  maybe, but I'd have to give up a lot. I think I offered him the #8, #9, and #13 and couldn't get it. But that was back before Charbonnet landed in Seattle, so now I wouldn't give up that much for the 3.

On the latter ... our league banned future year pick trading two years ago. Atrocious rule.

 

[acarey50]

So here is where I am at on this year's draft. Trying to check myself for sanity. I have the #1 (easy), #8, #9, #11, #13, #18, #19, and #20. My league is 12-team, 20-man, PPR, QRRWWFKD, 6 pts all TDs. This makes it a little RB crazy, and in my opinion the league leans significantly farther toward RB than it should. The first round is typically 8-10 RB's. Last year was 11. My hope of course was to get RB's with those #8 and #9 picks. But as you can tell, those picks would likely be RB6-7 at best, RB8-9 at worst. My draft board currently has WR's at #8, #11, #13, #14, and the rest of the top 14 are RB's. Suppose 2 WR out of JSN, Addison, Johnston are still there at my 8/9 spot. Am I fully insane if I only take 1 WR there along with, say, the RB7 on my draft board? Or am I wisely drafting to the twisted reality in which the league exists? In other words, is it in any way acceptable to pass on Addison/Johnston to take the 7th RB on my board? ... Just trade down?

Can you package picks to trade up?

Diversify into next year and get some 2024 picks?

On the former, I could try (and have), but there's no way I'm getting the #2. #3  maybe, but I'd have to give up a lot. I think I offered him the #8, #9, and #13 and couldn't get it. But that was back before Charbonnet landed in Seattle, so now I wouldn't give up that much for the 3.

On the latter ... our league banned future year pick trading two years ago. Atrocious rule.

What does your roster look like? Realistically how many of these rookies would you be rostering in the season?

It's a potentially very top heavy draft - I'd be willing to overpay for the higher draft picks or I'd look to try and deal picks or player/picks combos for veterans that will help you? Maybe not 8, 9 and 13 for the 3, but I'd be willing to make a perceived overpayment to land a JSN or your preferred top WR vs carrying 2 of Mims, Rice, etc. who have their own potential of course, but much bigger warts than the JSN types

 

[eighsse2]

So here is where I am at on this year's draft. Trying to check myself for sanity. I have the #1 (easy), #8, #9, #11, #13, #18, #19, and #20. My league is 12-team, 20-man, PPR, QRRWWFKD, 6 pts all TDs. This makes it a little RB crazy, and in my opinion the league leans significantly farther toward RB than it should. The first round is typically 8-10 RB's. Last year was 11. My hope of course was to get RB's with those #8 and #9 picks. But as you can tell, those picks would likely be RB6-7 at best, RB8-9 at worst. My draft board currently has WR's at #8, #11, #13, #14, and the rest of the top 14 are RB's. Suppose 2 WR out of JSN, Addison, Johnston are still there at my 8/9 spot. Am I fully insane if I only take 1 WR there along with, say, the RB7 on my draft board? Or am I wisely drafting to the twisted reality in which the league exists? In other words, is it in any way acceptable to pass on Addison/Johnston to take the 7th RB on my board? ... Just trade down?

Can you package picks to trade up?

Diversify into next year and get some 2024 picks?

On the former, I could try (and have), but there's no way I'm getting the #2. #3  maybe, but I'd have to give up a lot. I think I offered him the #8, #9, and #13 and couldn't get it. But that was back before Charbonnet landed in Seattle, so now I wouldn't give up that much for the 3.

On the latter ... our league banned future year pick trading two years ago. Atrocious rule.

What does your roster look like? Realistically how many of these rookies would you be rostering in the season?

It's a potentially very top heavy draft - I'd be willing to overpay for the higher draft picks or I'd look to try and deal picks or player/picks combos for veterans that will help you? Maybe not 8, 9 and 13 for the 3, but I'd be willing to make a perceived overpayment to land a JSN or your preferred top WR vs carrying 2 of Mims, Rice, etc. who have their own potential of course, but much bigger warts than the JSN types

Hurts and Geno Smith at QB.
Very solid at WR (Brown, Lamb, Wilson, with Godwin, Dotson, Bateman for depth).
Good but questionable at RB (Bijan with the #1, Etienne, Swift, not really any depth).

I feel somewhat confident I could get JSN at the 8/9 spot. Certainly no guarantee. If he is gone, I may even take RB's with both of those picks, even if he's the only WR off the board. 99.9% probability that at least one of JSN, Addison, and Johnston are there at 8/9. 95% that at least 2 of them are there.

After those 10 guys on my roster, it's just guys like Alex Pierce, Sermon, Hasty, Bell. So I can definitely use those 8 picks.

 

[Birdie048]

So here is where I am at on this year's draft. Trying to check myself for sanity. I have the #1 (easy), #8, #9, #11, #13, #18, #19, and #20. My league is 12-team, 20-man, PPR, QRRWWFKD, 6 pts all TDs. This makes it a little RB crazy, and in my opinion the league leans significantly farther toward RB than it should. The first round is typically 8-10 RB's. Last year was 11. My hope of course was to get RB's with those #8 and #9 picks. But as you can tell, those picks would likely be RB6-7 at best, RB8-9 at worst. My draft board currently has WR's at #8, #11, #13, #14, and the rest of the top 14 are RB's. Suppose 2 WR out of JSN, Addison, Johnston are still there at my 8/9 spot. Am I fully insane if I only take 1 WR there along with, say, the RB7 on my draft board? Or am I wisely drafting to the twisted reality in which the league exists? In other words, is it in any way acceptable to pass on Addison/Johnston to take the 7th RB on my board? ... Just trade down?

My league is similar..12 Team 0.5 PPR 1 QB But TE 1.0 PPR (full rebuild effort)
I traded 1.01 for TLaw/Tee Higgins package but still hold 1.07, 1.08, 2.03, 2.08 picks
Everyone drafts RBs. I am hoping either KMiller or DAchane is available at 1.07/1.08. Odds are Flowers will be but I’ve seen some drafts where both RBs go so WR & TE might be in my future.
My rebuild needs RB so I have to take at least 2 shots, maybe 3 pending value but I am with you at 7/8 on Flowers is better value than RB6 (Roschon or Spears?)