Early 2011 Strength of Schedule (1 Viewer)

[JohnPaulsen]

Hello all. My name is John Paulsen and I'm a longtime FBG user who has been writing about FF at The Scores Report for the past few years. I won FantasyPros' Most Accurate Expert of 2010 and just launched my own site, FantasyShrink. I also founded FantasyIntersection, which I hope will become the go-to clearinghouse for free fantasy football expert content.

I just posted early SOS data for QB and RB, and will be adding more later. I will try to update this topic as I go:

Early Strength of Schedule: QBs

Early Strength of Schedule: RBs

Early Strength of Schedule: WRs

Early Strength of Schedule: TEs

Early Strength of Schedule: Ks

Early Strength of Schedule: DTs

Early Strength of Schedule: RB (PPR)

Early Strength of Schedule: WR (PPR)

Early Strength of Schedule: TE (PPR)

Edit 4/23: Added links to WR and TE SOS.

Edit 4/25: Added links to K and DT SOS.

Edit 4/27: Added links to RB, WR and TE SOS for PPR leagues.

 

[eaglesfan7]

Intersection is decent so I'll check out the shrink.

 

[JohnPaulsen]

Added WR and TE SOS links.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

Interesting analysis, appreciate the hard work that went into it.

The biggest assumption it rests upon is the idea that 2010 SOS stats have meaningful predictive power for 2011 stats. The work I've done on this in the past suggests that prior year (N-1) defensive stats (fantasy points given up) show significant regression to the mean in year N. So I'm not sure what this really tells me, though again I like your analysis.

 

[Dragon1952]

Is Matt Waldman in on this?

 

[JohnPaulsen]

@Alex -- I use this as a starting point. If it's a traditionally bad defense, it's likely to continue. If 2010 was a bad year for a traditionally decent defense, they're likely to move back towards the mean, as you stated. The bottom line is that if a player has a great projected schedule it means that he has a ton of matchups against teams that struggled mightily in 2010, so that's something. I suspect that an easy projected schedule in April will result in no worse than a mediocre actual schedule in January (most of the time).

@Dragon -- No, I don't know Matt Waldman, other than reading his stuff on The Fifth Down and plugging it on Fantasy Intersection.

 

[JohnPaulsen]

Added K and DT SOS.

 

[JohnPaulsen]

Added SOS for RBs, WRs and TEs for PPR leagues.