Early 2014 RB rankings from PFF (1 Viewer)

[Steelers4Life]

I don't care about rankings this early - they'll change 100 times before next year.

But anyone who says Dwyer looked like a better runner than Bell didn't watch the Steelers this year. What I liked about Bell is that he looked better and better as the year went on and he got more comfortable. He missed a chunk of the preseason and the first 3 games of the regular season because of a foot sprain and he looked tentative early on. But he finished very strong, much more decisive and fluid in his cuts, and looked like a different runner than he did in October despite running behind a line that had even more injuries.

I don't think he's a gamebreaker, but he's going to be more than just a guy who accumulates numbers, too. He'll be the Steelers' starting RB until his contract is up after 2016, at least. A healthy Pouncey should help next year, too. The kid can play, and he runs hard.

 

[Rolling_akg]

Already noticing everyone is saying the same players too high and the same players too low.

Its 9 months away from drafts, lol. I take no weight in these rankings.

I'll let survivors play out to see who really is landing where.

Then don't speak! I like trich where you can get him

 

[FF Ninja]

Spiller will be on alot of my team next year, as well LeVeon bell.

Mathews while Im shaky on him due to past injury issues, injury issues made me pass on demarco murray this season too and he was dynamite

I'm not as keen on Bell. I guess there's something to be said for workload, but the talent is questionable. I know I'm probably swayed by the scouting reports on him and his actual rushing production in the NFL, but I can't shake it. But again, workload... he'll get it. Dude has 66 targets in 13 games.

I personally won't be touching Arian Foster as a RB1 next year, either. Losing Kubiak and his hugely RB-friendly offense is a pretty big deal IMO, and the offensive line in Houston has fallen pretty far from Foster's glory days. Plus a rookie QB likely means a bunch of 8 in the box.

I owned Foster in a couple redrafts this year so I should be a bitter owner, but I'd gamble on him again next year if the price is right. RB10 means second round probably. Foster has talent - both as a rusher and receiver. He's not old and he'll be coming off of a very short season. I know the o-line isn't what it was 2 years ago, but he still put up 4.5 ypc this year which is a big improvement over last year. I think Houston fixes the right side of the line next year. Even if he doesn't get 25 touches a game like with Kubiak, he'll still be quite valuable as a true 3 down back with goal line prowess. You don't find that in the second round. Also, a rookie QB isn't a certainty at this point. I'd love to see them trade back. Maybe trade with Cleveland and take Matthews to take over at RT.

whats wrong w Bells talent? He produced well in the NFL when healthy, and he can catch should be one of the few 3 down backs left in the game and Pittsburgh will be better overall next year

By "produced" I guess you mean he amassed a lot of carries and targets? He did put up a lot of points in PPR, but Dwyer looked like a better runner and his 45 rec on 66 targets does not indicate he is all that good at catching. I'd be interested to see how many of them were catchable. His stats might just reflect how poor the offensive line was and that Ben prefers to throw it at his RBs feet in lieu of throwing the ball away, but right now I feel like he's mediocre at all phases of the game. But there is value in high volume players.

I was periodically impressed with some of his receptions and runs, so I'm not writing him off as a scrub, but he seems like an interchangeable part. And FWIW, last year the PIT RBs came in at a 70.3% catch rate (78/111) and 72.1% this year (31/43), just above Bell's 68.2% so he's not substantially worse than those other guys... he's just not so good that I'd claim "he can catch" as a strong suite. Too often people on these boards confuse accumulation with ability.

he can accumulate just fine in 2014 on my team. points is points, is he an elite level talent? no, doesnt mean he wont be productive next season and thats all Im focused on and Dwyer pretty much sucks, is Dwyer one of those guys you seem hung up on like Blount?

Great counterpoint, but no... quite the contrary. I am using the fact that Dwyer - a chubby guy who was cut earlier this year - has run just as well if not better behind that line to show that Bell isn't special and is thus a bit overrated.

Thank you for remembering that I like Blount. His performance this year makes it odd that you bring him up. He was definitely worth his draft spot on my SSL and PDSL teams as well as the $2 spent on him in the subscriber contest.

It seems you are just bitter that I countered your "he can catch" statement with stats.

not bitter at all, what stats did you bust out? his targets vs catch %, thanks................sigh

what did Dwyer so this year that was so great again? I must have missed it

I am simply saying that based on these rankings I like Bell, dont care about his talent in dynasty context as I doubt he gets replaced one year after being drafted (although stranger things have happened)

Just utilizing stats to delve a little farther into uninformed statements like "he can catch" that are made by people who don't bother to analyze and just look at totals. "ooh, lots of receptions, he must be a great receiver" ...sigh

Again, Dwyer didn't do anything great. That was the point. :whoosh:

The last point is legitimate. If you think he'll continue to get Doug Martin-esque touches and compile stats next year then he'll be a fine 2014 fantasy play. Counting on high workload rather than talent can be risky, though.

 

[FF Ninja]

We must have been watching different games last year, because every time I saw Bell, he looked like the best running back on the field. Great runner, good at everything except lacking breakaway speed. Very strong receiver. You mentioned his catch rate (45/66 is 68%, which is on the low end for an RB), but you didn't mention his yards per receptions (9.3, which is great for an RB). Bell's catch rate was lower because Pittsburgh was constantly sending him down the field, rather than just dumping off to him out of the backfield.

I think I mentioned that, at times, I was impressed, but I think it is odd that he gets a pass for running into the backs of his linemen when guys like Ingram get beat up on for it. But even when he's had his moments, he'd have to be playing against Cleveland to be the best running back on the field.

Bell ended the year with 8.9 YPR which I'll agree is very good. Doug Martin had 9.6 last year and 5.5 this year, so let's see if that trend continues. CJ Spiller bounced from 6.7 ypr to 10.7 ypr. Mathews went from 9.1 to 6.5. These numbers can vary quite a bit year to year for RBs.

And if you say that his catch rate is lower because they were sending him downfield then wouldn't logic follow that it was situation rather than talent that led to the increase in YPR? You are kind of defeating your own point there in order to make a different point.

Bottomline, I don't hate him. I'm open to him improving in year 2, but I find myself a bit more cautious in a forum full of people jumping to conclusions based on aggregate stats. I think his chances of being overrated are greater than him being a value in 2014. He's got touchdowns and receptions - he's going to get a lot of attention.

 

[babydemon90]

+1 on Spiller. Fred Jackson turns 33 in February. If healthy, you have to expect a shift in carries next year to favor the 26 year old, game-breaker.

We said that this year, except turning 32. Not sure Spiller is ever going to be a 20-25 touch guy.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

+1 on Spiller. Fred Jackson turns 33 in February. If healthy, you have to expect a shift in carries next year to favor the 26 year old, game-breaker.

We said that this year, except turning 32. Not sure Spiller is ever going to be a 20-25 touch guy.

This would be a bigger deal if he hadn't finished RB6 on 15.6 touches / week in 2012. If he's going as a mid-range RB2 next year, he'll be a huge value regardless of Jackson, assuming he's not dealing with a HAS again.

 

[FF Ninja]

+1 on Spiller. Fred Jackson turns 33 in February. If healthy, you have to expect a shift in carries next year to favor the 26 year old, game-breaker.

We said that this year, except turning 32. Not sure Spiller is ever going to be a 20-25 touch guy.

This would be a bigger deal if he hadn't finished RB6 on 15.6 touches / week in 2012. If he's going as a mid-range RB2 next year, he'll be a huge value regardless of Jackson, assuming he's not dealing with a HAS again.

This is the thing people keep ignoring. HAS is no joke. It is a very limiting injury. Spiller still mustered 4.6 ypc this year (4.0 in first 7 games, 5.1 in last 8). I wasn't sure about them losing Levitre or how the new offense would work out so I avoided Spiller this year, but I think this high ankle sprain has depleted his value enough to make him a nice target next year.

 

[FF Ninja]

Already noticing everyone is saying the same players too high and the same players too low.

Its 9 months away from drafts, lol. I take no weight in these rankings.

I'll let survivors play out to see who really is landing where.

Yes, but a little early discussion can't hurt. I figured it would be a good outlet for people looking for fantasy football discussion on a board filled with WDIS and human interest topics. If you would prefer to weigh in on the Peyton yards record then you are in the wrong thread. Maybe you should make a case for Ivory to be a steal next year. I heard he was supposed to be a stud this year.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

Already noticing everyone is saying the same players too high and the same players too low.

Its 9 months away from drafts, lol. I take no weight in these rankings.

I'll let survivors play out to see who really is landing where.

Yes, but a little early discussion can't hurt. I figured it would be a good outlet for people looking for fantasy football discussion on a board filled with WDIS and human interest topics. If you would prefer to weigh in on the Peyton yards record then you are in the wrong thread. Maybe you should make a case for Ivory to be a steal next year. I heard he was supposed to be a stud this year.

ouch

 

[Coeur de Lion]

Already noticing everyone is saying the same players too high and the same players too low.

Its 9 months away from drafts, lol. I take no weight in these rankings.

I'll let survivors play out to see who really is landing where.

Yes, but a little early discussion can't hurt. I figured it would be a good outlet for people looking for fantasy football discussion on a board filled with WDIS and human interest topics. If you would prefer to weigh in on the Peyton yards record then you are in the wrong thread. Maybe you should make a case for Ivory to be a steal next year. I heard he was supposed to be a stud this year.

ouch

lulz

 

[Coeur de Lion]

+1 on Spiller. Fred Jackson turns 33 in February. If healthy, you have to expect a shift in carries next year to favor the 26 year old, game-breaker.

We said that this year, except turning 32. Not sure Spiller is ever going to be a 20-25 touch guy.

This would be a bigger deal if he hadn't finished RB6 on 15.6 touches / week in 2012. If he's going as a mid-range RB2 next year, he'll be a huge value regardless of Jackson, assuming he's not dealing with a HAS again.

This is the thing people keep ignoring. HAS is no joke. It is a very limiting injury. Spiller still mustered 4.6 ypc this year (4.0 in first 7 games, 5.1 in last 8). I wasn't sure about them losing Levitre or how the new offense would work out so I avoided Spiller this year, but I think this high ankle sprain has depleted his value enough to make him a nice target next year.

Think people missed it because he just gutted it out without missing a bunch of games, but he clearly wasn't the same guy for a big chunk of the year.

LOVE Spiller next year -- he should outperform his ADP pretty easily with the timeshare. And while Jackson has been an ageless wonder, he will be 33 next year, which is ancient for a RB. If the wheels do finally fall off in 2014, Spiller won't just be good value -- he could be a league-winner as your RB2 putting up top-5 overall numbers.

 

[Bayhawks]

Just utilizing stats to delve a little farther into uninformed statements like "he can catch" that are made by people who don't bother to analyze and just look at totals. "ooh, lots of receptions, he must be a great receiver" ...sigh

Again, Dwyer didn't do anything great. That was the point. :whoosh:

The last point is legitimate. If you think he'll continue to get Doug Martin-esque touches and compile stats next year then he'll be a fine 2014 fantasy play. Counting on high workload rather than talent can be risky, though.

Bell is a good receiver. Rather than looking at stats, catch rate, YPR, etc, if you watch game film, you see that he catches the ball with his hands, he runs good routes, and he is very good after the catch. There were a few times I saw him drop a pass because he tried to run with it before he had secured the catch, but there were also a few times where he was the "target" on a screen pass where Roethlisberger threw the ball into the ground & because he was the closest eligible receiver, he was given the target. Both of those types of instances would have negatively impacted his catch rate.

With regards to Dwyer, his stats are very misleading. He did not look better than Bell this year. His end of year YPC looked better, but that is mis-leading. Dwyer averaged 4.0 YPC on 49 rushes. That's a very small number of carries, and is very easily impacted by 1-2 long runs. Dwyer had 2 runs of 20+ yards this year (one of which was at the end of the 2nd quarter against the Pats; the Pats were playing to prevent the pass, Dwyer gained 30 yards on a surprise run where the Pats were playing a deep prevent zone). If you factor out those two runs, Dwyer averaged 3.0 YPC. If you factor out Bell's 3 runs of over 20+ yards, he averaged 3.3 YPC (instead of 3.5).

I'm concerned about Bell, as well. When I watched the game, I saw him making plays that indicate he was talented. At other times, I saw him waiting for a hole to open, and failing to get the 2-3 yard gain that was there. When you look at his stats, you see a lot of touches, but a pedestrian YPC. Then you notice that over the last few games, he played his best. You also have to consider the O-line in Pittsburgh. They dealt with A LOT of injuries this year. Even if they don't add anyone, if they can stay healthier, there should be more continuity there.

Even if you doubt his talent (rushing and/or receiving), it's also important to understand that the Steelers (their ownership) want to play "old-school, Steeler" football. They want to run. They are going to give Bell as much work as he can handle. That makes him a valuable RB2, at the very least.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

I don't hate him. I'm open to him improving in year 2, but I find myself a bit more cautious in a forum full of people jumping to conclusions based on aggregate stats. I think his chances of being overrated are greater than him being a value in 2014. He's got touchdowns and receptions - he's going to get a lot of attention.

He was the youngest RB in the NFL last season, missed time during training camp and the first 3 games of the regular season with a foot injury. I think improving in year 2, while not a given, is a fairly safe bet.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

I don't hate him. I'm open to him improving in year 2, but I find myself a bit more cautious in a forum full of people jumping to conclusions based on aggregate stats. I think his chances of being overrated are greater than him being a value in 2014. He's got touchdowns and receptions - he's going to get a lot of attention.

He was the youngest RB in the NFL last season, missed time during training camp and the first 3 games of the regular season with a foot injury. I think improving in year 2, while not a given, is a fairly safe bet.

not to mention improved Oline play, and possibly a new OC, although I thin Haley might have been fired by now if they were going to do it

 

[Bayhawks]

I don't hate him. I'm open to him improving in year 2, but I find myself a bit more cautious in a forum full of people jumping to conclusions based on aggregate stats. I think his chances of being overrated are greater than him being a value in 2014. He's got touchdowns and receptions - he's going to get a lot of attention.

He was the youngest RB in the NFL last season, missed time during training camp and the first 3 games of the regular season with a foot injury. I think improving in year 2, while not a given, is a fairly safe bet.

not to mention improved Oline play, and possibly a new OC, although I thin Haley might have been fired by now if they were going to do it

There were recent local reports where Roethlisberger said that he doesn't want Haley to go, and that they both agree the no-huddle should be a bigger part of their offense.

That is a negative of the late season win-streak, it allows the team (and fans) to forget why they were 2-6 at one point. Haley probably should be fired, but I don't think that is going to happen.

 

[Long Ball Larry]

Just utilizing stats to delve a little farther into uninformed statements like "he can catch" that are made by people who don't bother to analyze and just look at totals. "ooh, lots of receptions, he must be a great receiver" ...sigh

Again, Dwyer didn't do anything great. That was the point. :whoosh:

The last point is legitimate. If you think he'll continue to get Doug Martin-esque touches and compile stats next year then he'll be a fine 2014 fantasy play. Counting on high workload rather than talent can be risky, though.

Bell is a good receiver. Rather than looking at stats, catch rate, YPR, etc, if you watch game film, you see that he catches the ball with his hands, he runs good routes, and he is very good after the catch. There were a few times I saw him drop a pass because he tried to run with it before he had secured the catch, but there were also a few times where he was the "target" on a screen pass where Roethlisberger threw the ball into the ground & because he was the closest eligible receiver, he was given the target. Both of those types of instances would have negatively impacted his catch rate.

With regards to Dwyer, his stats are very misleading. He did not look better than Bell this year. His end of year YPC looked better, but that is mis-leading. Dwyer averaged 4.0 YPC on 49 rushes. That's a very small number of carries, and is very easily impacted by 1-2 long runs. Dwyer had 2 runs of 20+ yards this year (one of which was at the end of the 2nd quarter against the Pats; the Pats were playing to prevent the pass, Dwyer gained 30 yards on a surprise run where the Pats were playing a deep prevent zone). If you factor out those two runs, Dwyer averaged 3.0 YPC. If you factor out Bell's 3 runs of over 20+ yards, he averaged 3.3 YPC (instead of 3.5).

I'm concerned about Bell, as well. When I watched the game, I saw him making plays that indicate he was talented. At other times, I saw him waiting for a hole to open, and failing to get the 2-3 yard gain that was there. When you look at his stats, you see a lot of touches, but a pedestrian YPC. Then you notice that over the last few games, he played his best. You also have to consider the O-line in Pittsburgh. They dealt with A LOT of injuries this year. Even if they don't add anyone, if they can stay healthier, there should be more continuity there.

Even if you doubt his talent (rushing and/or receiving), it's also important to understand that the Steelers (their ownership) want to play "old-school, Steeler" football. They want to run. They are going to give Bell as much work as he can handle. That makes him a valuable RB2, at the very least.

Watched a lot of Steelers' games this year and I agree with this. And the big thing to me also is that he improved over the course of the season (as some others have noted) and that the Steelers obviously see him as a main cog with all of the things that they asked him to do (blocking, going out in coverage, etc.)

 

[ratbast]

I like Vereen but that's way too high for non-PPR. Flip him and Mathews and I think it is more realistic.

Personally I think people are too down on Martin. I think we forget how bad TB was with Freeman at QB, then Glennon making his first starts. I think he can finish top 10 (but prob no reason to have to draft him that high).

i think people are down on Martin due to how well the backups performed. Mike James looked terrific and Rainey looked pretty good as well.

Seems to be a plug and play system which puts into doubt how talented Martin is.

We know the OLine is good. We know Martin has the talent. We might even know he is more talented than James and Rainey. We are waiting on the coaching factor. But since they all did well with that oline I don't think that hurts Martin's real value. It helps it even if he isnt as talented as some thought last year. Might they employ more of a RBBC...probably but are they all even signed for next year? Martin w/Rainey and Martin w/James doesn't really scare me away from Martin and his shoulder. Martin might actually be undervalued.

 

[ChrisCooleyFan]

Morris way to low

 

[Long Ball Larry]

I like Vereen but that's way too high for non-PPR. Flip him and Mathews and I think it is more realistic.

Personally I think people are too down on Martin. I think we forget how bad TB was with Freeman at QB, then Glennon making his first starts. I think he can finish top 10 (but prob no reason to have to draft him that high).

i think people are down on Martin due to how well the backups performed. Mike James looked terrific and Rainey looked pretty good as well.

Seems to be a plug and play system which puts into doubt how talented Martin is.

We know the OLine is good. We know Martin has the talent. We might even know he is more talented than James and Rainey. We are waiting on the coaching factor. But since they all did well with that oline I don't think that hurts Martin's real value. It helps it even if he isnt as talented as some thought last year. Might they employ more of a RBBC...probably but are they all even signed for next year? Martin w/Rainey and Martin w/James doesn't really scare me away from Martin and his shoulder. Martin might actually be undervalued.

Well Lovie is pretty conservative, right? But Tedford will probably be more aggressive?

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Just utilizing stats to delve a little farther into uninformed statements like "he can catch" that are made by people who don't bother to analyze and just look at totals. "ooh, lots of receptions, he must be a great receiver" ...sigh

No offense, but you seem to be more guilty of this than anyone else in the discussion, citing catch rates and ignoring the major differences in those targets.

Bell wasn't catching the same kind of passes as Dwyer. Where Dwyer was standing around for an emergency Big Ben dump off at the line of scrimmage, Bell was often downfield running routes, sometimes lined up at the WR position. I haven't seen a guy his size used in that capacity since a young Steven Jackson.

There's a reason that Bell had more catches as a rookie than Dwyer has in his career, just as there's a reason that Bell just put up the 6th most receptions ever by a Pittsburgh running back despite playing only 13 games (prorated out to 16 games it would have been the most ever by a Pitt RB). Pittsburgh has had plenty of 3-down running backs and none of them have "accumulated" receptions at the rate that Bell did as a rookie who missed most of camp.

ETA: Alfred Morris and Daniel Thomas have better career catch rates than Reggie Bush and LaDainian Tomlinson btw, if that helps give you an indication of how useless the stat that you're banking the majority of your argument on is in judging how good of a receiver a running back is.

 

[Banger]

Morris way to low

Who knows what Morris will be without Shanny. I likely wouldn't risk a high pick on him without more info.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

If I could buy Blount at #71 today I'd dance a jig.

No idea if he's a great buy or a great sell right now since his price wasn't RB71 in the first place.

But it's one or the other. If he's in NE next year it'll be as the starter, but if he's not in New England...

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

If I could buy Blount at #71 today I'd dance a jig.

No idea if he's a great buy or a great sell right now since his price wasn't RB71 in the first place.

But it's one or the other. If he's in NE next year it'll be as the starter, but if he's not in New England...

who knows what NE will do they could sign him, he fumbles once and Ridley is lead dog next year.

 

[az_prof]

Already noticing everyone is saying the same players too high and the same players too low.

Its 9 months away from drafts, lol. I take no weight in these rankings.

I'll let survivors play out to see who really is landing where.

After Free Agency and then the draft these rankings will be worthless. This can be entertaining to speculate, but Phenix is right, rankings at this time of the year are nearly worthless.

 

[ratbast]

To those who think the rankings are useless you obviously don't play dynasty/keeper with off-season trading. Any info now is very welcomed by me and many others. The rankings will certainly change but not as much as you are suggesting. The tiers wont change that much.

 

[MattFancy]

Too early to think where the rookies might go in these rankings?

 

[FF Ninja]

Just utilizing stats to delve a little farther into uninformed statements like "he can catch" that are made by people who don't bother to analyze and just look at totals. "ooh, lots of receptions, he must be a great receiver" ...sigh

No offense, but you seem to be more guilty of this than anyone else in the discussion, citing catch rates and ignoring the major differences in those targets.

Bell wasn't catching the same kind of passes as Dwyer. Where Dwyer was standing around for an emergency Big Ben dump off at the line of scrimmage, Bell was often downfield running routes, sometimes lined up at the WR position. I haven't seen a guy his size used in that capacity since a young Steven Jackson.

There's a reason that Bell had more catches as a rookie than Dwyer has in his career, just as there's a reason that Bell just put up the 6th most receptions ever by a Pittsburgh running back despite playing only 13 games (prorated out to 16 games it would have been the most ever by a Pitt RB). Pittsburgh has had plenty of 3-down running backs and none of them have "accumulated" receptions at the rate that Bell did as a rookie who missed most of camp.

ETA: Alfred Morris and Daniel Thomas have better career catch rates than Reggie Bush and LaDainian Tomlinson btw, if that helps give you an indication of how useless the stat that you're banking the majority of your argument on is in judging how good of a receiver a running back is.

Why are you comparing Dwyer's catch rate to Bell's? I wasn't. I simply compared Bell to ALL the other RBs this year and last year. And as mentioned above, there's some circular references going on here. You guys want to claim skill got him those extra YPR compared to the other backs, yet you are saying the other backs are just catching dump offs rather than running routes, so wouldn't any RB running routes have a higher YPR than guys catching dump offs? Hmmm.

I'm simply taking the unpopular contrarian standpoint here for the sake of discussion. I think people are jumping to conclusions and getting excited about their guy just due to end of year stats, especially of the PPR variety. Bell got a lot of touches, a ton of targets, and a pretty good number of touchdowns so chances are he's going to be overhyped next year. Evidence of that is already rampant on this board.

I consider myself "curious" in regards to Bell rather than pessimistic or optimistic, but throwing out pertinent stats and realistic expectations can come off as pessimistic when the group think is clearly optimistic. I'm certainly not "banking my argument" on any one stat alone, nor do I consider myself to have an argument here unless you consider the notion of "calm yourselves" an argument. Just figured it was worth throwing catch rate into the discussion as well as citing examples of players whose yards per receptions varied wildly from one year to another.

We've all seen guys perceived as mediocre talents perform well in the NFL, but personally, I still utilize caution when I see a guy perceived as a mediocre talent put up a lot of aggregate stats while stumbling around at a Trent Richardson-esque YPC. I won't be surprised at all to see him finish in the top 10 next year with an improved offensive line, but I also won't be surprised if he's mentioned in the same breath as Daniel Thomas in two years.

 

[Spike]

Just utilizing stats to delve a little farther into uninformed statements like "he can catch" that are made by people who don't bother to analyze and just look at totals. "ooh, lots of receptions, he must be a great receiver" ...sigh

Again, Dwyer didn't do anything great. That was the point. :whoosh:

The last point is legitimate. If you think he'll continue to get Doug Martin-esque touches and compile stats next year then he'll be a fine 2014 fantasy play. Counting on high workload rather than talent can be risky, though.

Bell is a good receiver. Rather than looking at stats, catch rate, YPR, etc, if you watch game film, you see that he catches the ball with his hands, he runs good routes, and he is very good after the catch. There were a few times I saw him drop a pass because he tried to run with it before he had secured the catch, but there were also a few times where he was the "target" on a screen pass where Roethlisberger threw the ball into the ground & because he was the closest eligible receiver, he was given the target. Both of those types of instances would have negatively impacted his catch rate.

With regards to Dwyer, his stats are very misleading. He did not look better than Bell this year. His end of year YPC looked better, but that is mis-leading. Dwyer averaged 4.0 YPC on 49 rushes. That's a very small number of carries, and is very easily impacted by 1-2 long runs. Dwyer had 2 runs of 20+ yards this year (one of which was at the end of the 2nd quarter against the Pats; the Pats were playing to prevent the pass, Dwyer gained 30 yards on a surprise run where the Pats were playing a deep prevent zone). If you factor out those two runs, Dwyer averaged 3.0 YPC. If you factor out Bell's 3 runs of over 20+ yards, he averaged 3.3 YPC (instead of 3.5).

I'm concerned about Bell, as well. When I watched the game, I saw him making plays that indicate he was talented. At other times, I saw him waiting for a hole to open, and failing to get the 2-3 yard gain that was there. When you look at his stats, you see a lot of touches, but a pedestrian YPC. Then you notice that over the last few games, he played his best. You also have to consider the O-line in Pittsburgh. They dealt with A LOT of injuries this year. Even if they don't add anyone, if they can stay healthier, there should be more continuity there.

Even if you doubt his talent (rushing and/or receiving), it's also important to understand that the Steelers (their ownership) want to play "old-school, Steeler" football. They want to run. They are going to give Bell as much work as he can handle. That makes him a valuable RB2, at the very least.

Great post.

 

[Bayhawks]

Just utilizing stats to delve a little farther into uninformed statements like "he can catch" that are made by people who don't bother to analyze and just look at totals. "ooh, lots of receptions, he must be a great receiver" ...sigh

No offense, but you seem to be more guilty of this than anyone else in the discussion, citing catch rates and ignoring the major differences in those targets.

Bell wasn't catching the same kind of passes as Dwyer. Where Dwyer was standing around for an emergency Big Ben dump off at the line of scrimmage, Bell was often downfield running routes, sometimes lined up at the WR position. I haven't seen a guy his size used in that capacity since a young Steven Jackson.

There's a reason that Bell had more catches as a rookie than Dwyer has in his career, just as there's a reason that Bell just put up the 6th most receptions ever by a Pittsburgh running back despite playing only 13 games (prorated out to 16 games it would have been the most ever by a Pitt RB). Pittsburgh has had plenty of 3-down running backs and none of them have "accumulated" receptions at the rate that Bell did as a rookie who missed most of camp.

ETA: Alfred Morris and Daniel Thomas have better career catch rates than Reggie Bush and LaDainian Tomlinson btw, if that helps give you an indication of how useless the stat that you're banking the majority of your argument on is in judging how good of a receiver a running back is.

Why are you comparing Dwyer's catch rate to Bell's? I wasn't. I simply compared Bell to ALL the other RBs this year and last year. And as mentioned above, there's some circular references going on here. You guys want to claim skill got him those extra YPR compared to the other backs, yet you are saying the other backs are just catching dump offs rather than running routes, so wouldn't any RB running routes have a higher YPR than guys catching dump offs? Hmmm.

I'm simply taking the unpopular contrarian standpoint here for the sake of discussion. I think people are jumping to conclusions and getting excited about their guy just due to end of year stats, especially of the PPR variety. Bell got a lot of touches, a ton of targets, and a pretty good number of touchdowns so chances are he's going to be overhyped next year. Evidence of that is already rampant on this board.

I consider myself "curious" in regards to Bell rather than pessimistic or optimistic, but throwing out pertinent stats and realistic expectations can come off as pessimistic when the group think is clearly optimistic. I'm certainly not "banking my argument" on any one stat alone, nor do I consider myself to have an argument here unless you consider the notion of "calm yourselves" an argument. Just figured it was worth throwing catch rate into the discussion as well as citing examples of players whose yards per receptions varied wildly from one year to another.

We've all seen guys perceived as mediocre talents perform well in the NFL, but personally, I still utilize caution when I see a guy perceived as a mediocre talent put up a lot of aggregate stats while stumbling around at a Trent Richardson-esque YPC. I won't be surprised at all to see him finish in the top 10 next year with an improved offensive line, but I also won't be surprised if he's mentioned in the same breath as Daniel Thomas in two years.

This is a . I was initially very excited about Bell. After looking into the situation, I've tempered my expectations somewhat. When I was looking towards next year, I thought he might be a top-10 RB, but I've backed off that some. I think he is a solid RB2, with upside to be a RB1. I also think he will be overvalued in drafts next year. I doubt I'd be drafting him in redraft leagues, but I'm definitely holding him in my keeper league.