early auction strategy (1 Viewer)

[schu]

I try to police top 200 players up to 85% of my projected value. I keep this up as long I can but don't stray off the 85% mark unless I really want the guy. I will spend 30-40% of cap at 90-95% of my valuation early on a targeted player that is often either a relative can't miss (P Manning; L Tomlinson) or the top player in the draft. You've simply got to know where you stand on someone like L Johnson early because an auction is like making the puzzle pieces fit in together so nominate top talent right off the bat. If you get a 40% cap player it's much easier to fill in the rest of the puzzle with values than it is to find that last (properly valued) 15% cap RB to complete your starting lineup.

Remember that the goal of the auction is to get studs and not to get good deals. If you are able to get a top guy for the right price early, do so. It's money well spent. Your competitors usually won't overspend for the can't miss players so you might as well pay the right price yourself and let them make their mistakes elsewhere (they will).

I'm sorry if I didn't communicate this clearer but to summarize my philosophy -- it's best to go for top tier studs in an auction and fill in your roster in the last 1/3rd with good deals than to look for deals throughout and risk not geting good players in return for a significant portion of your cap.

 

[The Ref]

I try to police top 200 players up to 85% of my projected value. I keep this up as long I can but don't stray off the 85% mark unless I really want the guy. I will spend 30-40% of cap at 90-95% of my valuation early on a targeted player that is often either a relative can't miss (P Manning; L Tomlinson) or the top player in the draft. You've simply got to know where you stand on someone like L Johnson early because an auction is like making the puzzle pieces fit in together so nominate top talent right off the bat. If you get a 40% cap player it's much easier to fill in the rest of the puzzle with values than it is to find that last (properly valued) 15% cap RB to complete your starting lineup.

Remember that the goal of the auction is to get studs and not to get good deals. If you are able to get a top guy for the right price early, do so. It's money well spent. Your competitors usually won't overspend for the can't miss players so you might as well pay the right price yourself and let them make their mistakes elsewhere (they will).

I'm sorry if I didn't communicate this clearer but to summarize my philosophy -- it's best to go for top tier studs in an auction and fill in your roster in the last 1/3rd with good deals than to look for deals throughout and risk not geting good players in return for a significant portion of your cap.

There are two things true of auction style FF.1. You can't win if you spend your money on Studs.

2. You can't win if you save your money and spread it around on Depth.

At the end of the year a bad team will have done neither of these well.

At the end of the year an ok team will do one or the other well.

At the end of the year, the team that wins it all will have done both well.

 

[beto]

A schu post about auction?

I'm having ole' yeller flashbacks

Surprised at the lack of responses. In both my auction leagues most of the studs are nominated early so you have to be prepared.

 

[gebz306]

Draft top backups to start.... If you draft Michael Bennett for $5 before Larry Johnson has been auctioned, $70 on him haha no way... LJ's price will drop..... I advise doing this for the top dogs

 

[Warpig]

Here's what always happens at my drafts...

The studs get thrown out early and get taken for their estimated value most of the time. Sometimes somebody will want someone bad enough and overspend, but overspending for a stud is acceptable to a degree.

The guys that sat around hoarding their money to get depth, end up over paying for lower tier players because the pool is getting thinner and you'll have the "hoarders" bidding against each other.

So I'd say get your studs early, then get value in the later rounds. There will always be value in the later rounds.

 

[schu]

Here's what always happens at my drafts...The studs get thrown out early and get taken for their estimated value most of the time. Sometimes somebody will want someone bad enough and overspend, but overspending for a stud is acceptable to a degree. The guys that sat around hoarding their money to get depth, end up over paying for lower tier players because the pool is getting thinner and you'll have the "hoarders" bidding against each other. So I'd say get your studs early, then get value in the later rounds. There will always be value in the later rounds.

You summarized my point pretty well. The key is spend close to your valuation for that stud early because the hoarders will kill each other for the next tier and then the third tier and fourth tiers will be ripe for the picking. This goes against conventional auction wisdom of not pulling the trigger until a bargain is in play.Thanks for the responses, guys.

 

[Defending Champs]

I usually have a predetermined amount I will spend for any given player. That amount will vary as the auction unfolds due to the horders and over spenders and those people simply trying to run the price up.

The horders almost always overpay for some second/third tier player as that is all that's left. Hopefully for your sake, that second/third tier guy isn't the one you had tagged for his "breakout" year. If so, lookout, it'll get ugly REAL fast.

Recipe:

One guy studies all off season and has talked himself into player X for the last three months and nothing will get in his way.

One guy just watched all the quality players get yanked off the board while he has spent $5 on a backup WR and is like a five year old with fifty cents in his pocket. This guy is looking for the next gumball machine.

It can get dangerous, just stick to your predetermined amounts and avoid the hoarders.

 

[Kenlin]

...because I have my first auction coming up in two weeks.

 

[schu]

Recipe:One guy studies all off season and has talked himself into player X for the last three months and nothing will get in his way.One guy just watched all the quality players get yanked off the board while he has spent $5 on a backup WR and is like a five year old with fifty cents in his pocket. This guy is looking for the next gumball machine.It can get dangerous, just stick to your predetermined amounts and avoid the hoarders.

This brings up another good auction bidding point. I think that the perception that auction is much more of a skill game than draft is exaggerated. The main driver in this is the "one dollar more factor". You could have studied and projected and know exactly what a guy is worth -- what's it take for your buddy with the June rag to get him?...maybe just $1 more than you're willing. That's why you should be more fearful of sitting on a lot of cash than fearful of your competition getting a roster full of steals. The skill of the auction is in the 3rd act. I've had auctions before where I buy the 1st two players nominated and have spent 70% of my cap and then I check off names for the next 2 hours before getting active again.

 

[Defending Champs]

When are you considered out of bidding in your instance?

For us, the bidding goes around the table, when it is your turn to decide, and you decline, you are unable to get back in. This eliminates the guy that finally realizes that I (the one who studied) might be on to something. You better know right out of the gate or you lose him.

 

[schu]

When are you considered out of bidding in your instance?For us, the bidding goes around the table, when it is your turn to decide, and you decline, you are unable to get back in. This eliminates the guy that finally realizes that I (the one who studied) might be on to something. You better know right out of the gate or you lose him.

In ours you can jump in anytime which promotes the situation I described. When the bidding slows down the one who nominates the player says "going once..., twice...,sold..." this speeds up if someone is really dragging things out. Your way is more skillful for sure. Ours is a ten year old auction league -- we were early adapters.

 

[The Ref]

When are you considered out of bidding in your instance?For us, the bidding goes around the table, when it is your turn to decide, and you decline, you are unable to get back in. This eliminates the guy that finally realizes that I (the one who studied) might be on to something. You better know right out of the gate or you lose him.

In ours you can jump in anytime which promotes the situation I described. When the bidding slows down the one who nominates the player says "going once..., twice...,sold..." this speeds up if someone is really dragging things out. Your way is more skillful for sure. Ours is a ten year old auction league -- we were early adapters.

I prefer the around the circle type. this way you can count roster spots and other teams salary and walk away with some good players cheap later on.