Early draft (1 Viewer)

[houston]

Looks like we'll be drafting the weekend of August 7-8. Much earlier than I'd like, but so goes the reality of trying to get 12 guys together.

3 keeper league, otherwise all other players are up for grabs.

When you've drafted early in the past, how has it changed your thinking? Stuck with established players? Avoided undecided position battles? Took more of a chance on rookies in hopes of striking gold?

Any advice is appreciated.

 

[FUBAR]

Generally speaking I'm less likely to worry about speculation or rumors, bump established players up and rookies down, perhaps not draft a kicker, and only take contested positions when they are true values. I'll probably end up taking the "underdog vet" than pay the price for the young buck. Like I didn't get Felix Jones, Chris Wells or Donald Brown last year but ended up with Marion Barber and Tim Hightower. although that probably holds for later drafts too.

 

[houston]

Thanks fubar.

96 views, and 1 reply? There's got to be more thought/opinions out there.

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

When I draft early, I try and be the most up to date informed I can be on contract situations, positions battles, any little tweaks or news on suspensions etc....

You try and stay clear of players that you think can fall into trouble in any of those categories. The problem with drafting early is that injuries do happen. You can say I'm going to draft from teams they have a history of not playing a lot of their players during preseason but you can only go so far with it.

On the flip side, through experience I also try and use rumor to an advantage. Sometimes news and players slide early in drafts because people are afraid to draft them. Someone like Cedric Benson this year may be an early candidate. Owners are steering clear of him right now until a little later in drafts fearing he'll be suspended and there's a reasonable chance he's not going to be getting a suspension, making him a nice player to snag a little later than you can probably get him 1 to 2 weeks before the actual start of the season when everyone feels safe that he's going to start week 1.

Last year early on, I drafted Brandon Marshall in the 7th round of a draft.....7th round! In the height of all the panic that he wasn't going to play with his new coach etc....I finally thought about it enough and said this guy has had trouble before in the offseason and he played and did well week 1. The risk far outweighed the reward and when I announced his name at the draft, I just knew it was a good pick. There are situations like this every year, specifally on these players that are serving suspensions. You should have an idea in your head where you want to take a guy like Big Ben and if you do, who will be your QB the first 4 weeks or so of your season (so look at Qb's 1st 4 games of QBBC type of guys to see if one has a favorable schedule to match up well with a guy like Big Ben).

Then there are players like Vincent Jackson. Who has a contract problem and a suspension problem. You really have to think long and hard about this specfic sitatuation. The SD man in charge has a history of playing some hard ball so it's not as easy to just think he'll play as soon as his suspension is over and then start tearing it up out on the field. That could be a situation where someone drafts him hoping things clear up and it never really does until it's way to late.

I can't help that when I draft early, it's just like trying to dodge landmines. You search for any information about injuries after these preseason games and just hope that your stud isn't one of the leading stories on sportscenter.

 

[Jeff Haseley]

Early drafts can be good, because you can often get certain players before their value increases. Guys like Jahvid Best, Ryan Mathews, Malcolm Floyd, Early Doucet, Chad Henne, Jared Cook, Justin Forsett, Devin Thomas, Golden Tate, Hakeem Nicks, Dez Bryant, Aaron Hernandez, Johnny Knox, to name a few, have seen a rise in their ADP over the last few months. It is likely that at least a few of those will have very good training camps and pre seasons. Enough so that their ADP could bump up a full round or more as the season gets closer.

An early draft means you can get better value on these players as opposed to early September when the jockeying for position battles is relatively known. Of course there is a chance that you draft a player and he turns around and gets injured in the pre season. You can't escape that - that's really the only downside.

Those who have a keen eye on how players are expected to progress can take advantage of their "homework" and select a player at a good value, before the rest of the world catches up to the notion that player x has a great opportunity to excel this year.