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41 Gerald Hayes, ARI
The Durant-Peterson issue is the toughest for me to handicap. I probably I should have Durant in the back half of this list somewhere as a hedge, but there's still been nothing from the team that suggests Mike Peterson will be moved. I think it's more likely that the team will do it this year (contract, personnel, another year of injury) than in prior seasons, but it isn't certain. It's also worth noting that the every down ROLB hasn't been a big fantasy producer in this defense; Durant will do better than Smith, but he's not a lock to crack the top 50 in that scenario anyway.I'm not convinced Williams or Wilkinson are starters yet, and neither are locks to play every down. They're in the mix, but are very high risk for what will likely be a LB3 ceiling.
Gerald Hayes is 41 on the list, within that big tier of LB3s. I like Hayes, but he doesn't have the tackle or big play upside the others do in that range. That whole 25-45 group could be ranked in any number of ways.
You're forgetting one thing: Rashard Jeanty, Rashard Jeanty is the thing that forces MLs hand to keep Brooks at MLB. Brooks is 260 lbs, are you going to tell me ML isnt licking his chops at playing someone of that size in the middle and SPEED! He had 16 pts in the 1 game he played he's seriously under the radar. Thurman has been out of football for two years he's 220 lbs ML isnt going to put round peg into a square hole. I would be suprised if Thurman is starting anywhere, I think he's finished, he's probably been living it up the past two years with drugs and alcohol that have affectively ended his career. Is that a big hit to Gaither moving to Will Im not too happy about that personally.
While it belongs firmly in the "believe it when you see it" category, Thurman is reportedly around his playing weight of 240 pounds, working out with the team and has his locker back (a significant change from his previous treatment by Lewis). I'm not forgetting about Rashad Jeanty. Jeanty is a nice role player, but he's not forcing Marvin's hand at anything. In fact, Lewis repeatedly has tried to shoehorn Robert Geathers into that position. I'm sure Lewis would love Brooks to become an impact every down MLB, as would the homer in me. Objectively speaking, though, Brooks has suffered through a number of injuries (including his college career), has yet to be trusted in nickel packages and is still struggling to stay in his run fits in Lewis' annoying read-and-react scheme.With Johnson now out of the picture, I think a opening weekend lineup of Thurman/Brooks at WLB/MLB is very possible with a rotation of Jeanty, Pollack, Henderson, Jones at SLB depending on who's healthy and situation. If it goes down that way, I think you'll see a lot of interesting nickel packages Thurman and Jones as your nickel backers and a whole host of pass rushers around the LOS.Despite all that defense of my ranking of the two, recent history would strongly suggest that Brooks is the safer bet. I'm not sure that's a good thing, however.
If you go look at the LBs drafted alongside the very impressive Mike Peterson in 1999, its pretty obvious Father Time will be (or already has) caught up to him. I would look at Durant being the guy sooner than later.
The blame for Brooks' injuries lies squarely on the shoulders of the worst medical staff in the nfl. The Browns too cheap for a decent staff you know, I know it, the whole world knows it.
The Bengals looked after him in college?
Maybe in the 50-60 range, but I'd need some confirmation that he'll play in every nickel situation before endorsing him as anything more than a bye week replacement type player.
I'm not sure he belongs in the top 60.
Guess we shall see.
Remember, our default scoring system is 1.5/solo and 4/sack. An OLB has to project to 50 solos and double digit sacks to crack the top 40. I like Woodley a lot and he belongs in the deep tier of LB4+. But I'm not certain he'll become an all-around player. So, in my view, the likelihood that Woodley finishes with a 40-6 line is much more likely than anything resembling the 70-8 line of James Harrison last year or the 60-12 line of a guy like Demarcus Ware. Plenty of Kamerion Wimbleys stat lines out there over the years to worry over. I'll be pimping him hard in big play leagues as a high upside option, though.
It's pretty much the same argument on Manny Lawson. I've seen enough of him to feel confident that he still has a long way to go on the road to becoming a complete player. He shows flashes, but those flashes are based on his athleticism, not on an understanding on how to properly defend the run or cover. It's going to be very difficult to get the vision of him sprinting away from the play (no misdirection and clearly away from the flow of the play) during a preseason game last year. It looked like someone had taken control of his body in a Madden game and purposely ran him the other way. There are other less dramatic instances as well. I hope he puts it together, though, as there've been some unbelievable good plays in there too.In a standard league, particularly if the Niners move toward a 4-3 and keep Lawson at SLB, I don't see any way he has more than LB4 upside. Drafting him as your LB6 in those systems and hoping for a monster breakout is probably okay.-----If I'm drafting a pass rushing OLB in a standard league, I'm looking for clear double digit sack upside and the all around talent to make 60 solo tackles. The guys that can hit the 60 tackle plateau are similar to the two way 4-3 DE. It's highly suggestive that they can play the run and defend the pass enough to not kill you on the many weeks they'll not get a sack. I think the Steeler fire zone scheme is (and has proven to be) the best fit for an OLB in the box score. The list is long -- Chad Brown, Greg Lloyd, Joey Porter and now James Harrison (among others) have all had seasons with enough production to put them around the top 25. Still, even a top all-around talent like Brown struggled to have consistent, year-in year-out value.I'm very much in favor of rostering some big upside guys for any number of strategic reasons, but in a raw cheatsheet style reckoning, it's best to remember the historical trends. They don't favor the rush LB in standard scoring systems.
Boley's is another situation that you better be very sure won't follow the historical trend before you invest.Boley played a lot of snaps on the weak side in the two games I saw last season, and the new scheme may do the same (Jacksonville ran a lot of LOLB/ROLB with Mike Smith as the DC last year). But 93 solo tackles is an amazing number for a guy that sees so much time on the strong side. Look at his eight game splits from last year. At one point, after Week 9 IIRC, Boley was on pace for 110 solo tackles. In that week's RTD column, I posted the very short list of SLB who had made more than 80 solo tackles. Even the best players playing on every down have to contend with too many blockers to reliably hit the solo tackle mark that gets them into the top 25. So, you're again left with the question: Can this guy produce enough numbers in pass rush or in the coverage columns to stay consistently valuable.biggamer3 said:
Thanks great stuff hereYou really rock buddy, BUT i feel that Boley and Dansby should not be that far apart in the rankings
I can see someone getting nervous about Fletcher's age, but the 'Skins D will not be new this year. Blache has stated that he's not changing the system. When specific plays get called may change some because a new coordinator is deciding when and who to blitz, etc., but for the most part the 'Skins defensive system is the same as it was at the conclusion of last season.I don't see Fletcher's numbers changing much from last year.
I'm a tier guy. Here's a rough example of one of my tiers and how they end up on the rank list.21-24BARRETT RUUDMATT WILHELMGARY BRACKETTJAMES FARRIORAll safe bets to get 90 solos right now, or in Farrior's case, the big play stats to make up the difference. Wilhelm is arguable, but unlike some of the players below him, there's been no official speculation that he'll be moved to another position. His upside is higher than the two below him in this mini-tier.25-31LEON WILLIAMSKEITH BULLUCKANGELO CROWELLFREDDIE KEIAHOAJ HAWKD'QWELL JACKSONDJ WILLIAMSTo me, all of these guys have question marks -- position, scheme, playing time, injury, etc. Still you can make an argument that any of them belong in the mini-tier above. And you could make an argument that any of these 11 players deserve to be at the top of the entire tier.None of that explains the Williams ranking specifically I guess, though. We continue to hear speculation that Andra Davis may continue to lose playing time. It's certainly a risk, but the recent trend in the LILB role in Cleveland has been very good. An every down player there has definite LB2+ value. Since this tier is full of LB3 type players, I'll risk the upside of Williams over the others just below him. It's a similar thought process to my "over-ranking" of Omar Gaither last May. Obviously, you won't have to draft him here in most situations, though, so it may not be the best way to rank them.These 1-60 rank lists are a constant struggle in philosophy for me. Do I rank these players how I believe they're likely to finish in August or how they look today. Should I have a guy like Thurman on this list at all? Is putting Vilma at 7 before he starts running a safe plan. Whither DJ or Leon Williams? Durant? And so on. I try to make a decision either way and not hedge.If you (a general "you") believe Williams remains in his current role through training camp, then he falls back into a tier of guys who may or may not make the top 60 rankings.
OK. Thanks. I picked up Wilhelm and Williams in a dynasty last year and was simply surprised to see him that high.
Darryl Blackstock-LB- Bengals Mar. 10 - 3:58 pm et Bengals agreed to terms with OLB Darryl Blackstock, formerly of the Cardinals.Blackstock has struggled overall as a pro, but is only 24 and had three sacks off the bench last year. The Bengals will give more 3-4 looks going forward and he'll be sent as an edge rusher. Blackstock won't be in the mix to start.
At what point can we say for sure that Smith is a horrible fantasy LB? I wouldn't judge the MLB position based on his games there, so I don't see any real reason to do the same at WLB.What I don't know is how they are in real life... what are the chances that Peterson's at MLB, Durant's at WLB, and Smith is the first guy off the bench?ETA: I appreciate the list and the discussion it sparks.
That's a very good point and one I'm prone to overlooking. Durant proved that a solid WLB can have value there and I was on record as saying that Peterson would cut into Smith's numbers more than Smith cut into Peterson's should that switch have been made last year.I'm continuing to work under the assumption that Peterson is the MLB until proven otherwise. I think the Jags have thought highly enough of Smith -- contract extension, felt he was safer in the middle down the stretch than Durant last year -- that he's the early favorite to start. I'm totally vexed on Durant, though. You'd think the Jags would find a way to get him in the lineup, but you could have said the same about Barrett Ruud or Channing Crowder in recent years.
Mulitple injury issues have me concerned. No guarantee that he's ready to start the season, despite the early rehab reports. I did the projections before reading redman's note that Blache would use a lot of the same defensive looks, but I'm not convinced that the Redskins will play as much Tampa-2 as they did under Williams, which I believe artifically bumped McIntosh's stats.A healthy McIntosh in Week 1 belongs somewhere in the 35-50 range, I'd guess.ETA: By 35-50, I mean 25-40.
I told myself I should've gone back and checked before adding that line. My apologies for being lazy.
Before McIntosh got hurt, he was FLYING around the field. He was always close to making the play...it was very surprising and great to see as a 'Skins fan. A ray of sunshine in some gray days...Mulitple injury issues have me concerned. No guarantee that he's ready to start the season, despite the early rehab reports. I did the projections before reading redman's note that Blache would use a lot of the same defensive looks, but I'm not convinced that the Redskins will play as much Tampa-2 as they did under Williams, which I believe artifically bumped McIntosh's stats.A healthy McIntosh in Week 1 belongs somewhere in the 35-50 range, I'd guess.ETA: By 35-50, I mean 25-40.
Jene Bramel said:I told myself I should've gone back and checked before adding that line. My apologies for being lazy.
No problem. Just giving you a hard time. I suppose there are worse things that could happen to me than being mistaken for redman. 
Yeah, I'm chronically guilty of over-ranking Mike Peterson and Antonio Pierce and under-ranking Witherspoon in the same tier. I have trouble getting past the lack of assists that the St. Louis players get. That's nearly 15 points that Witherspoon has to make up on the guys who get 30 assists or so in front of him. It's a bit of a Catch-22 with Witherspoon's passing down role. If he's on the line rushing the passer, he needs to convert a decent number of those chances -- there are plenty of top tier linebackers who get 4-6 sacks -- since he's losing some coverage tackles when he's not roaming in the middle of the field.David Harris? I suppose I'm on a limb, but I don't necessarily see where the Jets have improved on either side of the ball right now. Pace could be a nice player, but I don't know that he impacts Harris much. Jenkins could be an improvement over Robertson, or he could be the unmotivated, overweight, inconsistent tackle that the Panthers have been struggling with for the past three seasons. He was on pace for 130 solos last year, and I don't think expecting 95-100 is too much right now.
He's still in that low LB1-mid LB2 tier for me. Just hard to project him comfortably for 95 solos and 5.5 sacks again. 92 solos and 2.5 sacks would drop him to the bottom of that tier.
I wouldn't worry about Greenway eating into Henderson's numbers until he can prove it. Also, the Vikings run a version of the Tampa-2. The MIKE and the WILL usually have more than enough opportunities to share and both put up very good numbers (Urlacher and Briggs). The problem for Greenway last season is that, although the WILL should be on the field for all three downs, he was sharing some time on 3rd down with Leber. As I said, don't sweat Henderson's production, at least regarding the effect of Greenway, until there's a reason to.
Lots of discussion on Koutouvides here. I think there's potentially some value, but I'm not in the camp that's firmly convinced he'll win the job and even less certain that he'll play every down when he does.
Way to go, man!
