Edge's carries in the high 300s? (1 Viewer)

[sholditch]

Was just readin the interview with Cards insider Kent Somers and he had this to say about the running game

They want to run the ball here. This is going to be, offensive philosophy wise, Pittsburgh west. That's the number one thing, and they want to run the ball 550 times this season, and I don't think the Cardinals, as an organization, have ever gone over 500 since they moved to Arizona in 1988. Edgerrin James obviously can't carry that huge of a load. They would like to keep his carries in the high 300s.

So let's take the middle ground and assume that this guy means 375 carries, and we'll assume that Edge actually has a worse year than last, and averages only 3.5 ypc. That's 1312 rushing. Now let's assume that Grimm can work some magic with the line and gets James back to 4.0 ypc (he averaged better than that in December). That's 1500 yard rushing. Now, let's get really freaking crazy and imagine a scenario where Grimm pulls a rabbit out of his hat and gets James up to 4.3 ypc. That's 1612 rushing. Even if James didn't catch a single pass, those would be great numbers for where he is being drafted.

Two questions: 1. Does this "insider" know what the hell he's talking about? Is there a chance Edge carries the ball around 375 times?

2. Is James still strong enough to carry that kind of load and not break down?

 

[KellysHeroes]

I have a gut feeling that Edge starts to break down this yr... and a 300+ carry count won't help.

 

[phthalatemagic]

Of course they want to run the ball. Running the ball means winning. They will throw the ball however, becuase they will be losing. It's not going to be the first time circumstances of the game will dictate philosophy.

 

[jurb26]

Of course they want to run the ball. Running the ball means winning. They will throw the ball however, becuase they will be losing. It's not going to be the first time circumstances of the game will dictate philosophy.

Pretty much my thoughts as well. Arz is making strides and hiring Grimm was a huge step in the right direction. They just don't have the personal to run that ball that much. Worse yet, they simply are not good enough to warrant it. I think 2008 is a more realistic goal for Arz to have this ball control offense in place. They just are not good enough at the LOS on either side of the ball right now.

 

[phthalatemagic]

Another thing that will affect this team in the front half of the season is that the switch to 3-4 is going to put their most talented front seven players out of their natural positions. Bert Berry will be a OLB and Darnell Dockett will play DE. These players to my knowledge have never played these positions before. There will be some growing pains because of this at least in the first 6 games IMO. A poorly playing defense will put even more pressure on the offense to score.

 

[Chase Stuart]

They want to run the ball here. This is going to be, offensive philosophy wise, Pittsburgh west. That's the number one thing, and they want to run the ball 550 times this season, and I don't think the Cardinals, as an organization, have ever gone over 500 since they moved to Arizona in 1988.

It's certainly been awhile.

Year	Rsh	Rk2006	419	262005	360	322004	475	112003	403	302002	414	232001	400	272000	343	301999	396	251998	450	151997	395	291996	401	271995	387	261994	480	91993	452	141992	395	231991	391	211990	452	171989	407	221988	480	161987	462	201986	419	251985	417	261984	488	161983	525	11

It's been over 20 years since the Cards have rushed 500 times in a season, and it's been over ten years since Arizona has ranked in the top ten in rush attempts. About 5-6 teams per years the last five years have hit the 500 carry mark. Only three teams -- the '04 Steelers, the '03 Ravens and the '03 Steelers -- have rushed 549 times or more since 2002.

 

[Dirty Weasel]

Edge managed 337 carries on a team that obviously couldn't rush last year. Given the new coaching in ARI, unless his body breaks down, shouldn't 337 be around the floor for him in 2007? I'm not saying ARI will rush 500 times; only that Edge's portion will still be there.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Edge managed 337 carries on a team that obviously couldn't rush last year. Given the new coaching in ARI, unless his body breaks down, shouldn't 337 be around the floor for him in 2007? I'm not saying ARI will rush 500 times; only that Edge's portion will still be there.

No other Cardinals RB had 20 carries last year. That seems unlikely to happen again, doesn't it?

 

[David Yudkin]

Edge managed 337 carries on a team that obviously couldn't rush last year. Given the new coaching in ARI, unless his body breaks down, shouldn't 337 be around the floor for him in 2007? I'm not saying ARI will rush 500 times; only that Edge's portion will still be there.

No other Cardinals RB had 20 carries last year. That seems unlikely to happen again, doesn't it?

No Colts RB other than James had close to 20 carries in a game in 03, 04, and 05. And all other Colts RBs COMBINED in 1999 AND 2000 (32 games) did not total 20 carries (including BOTH full seasons) let alone in a single game.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Edge managed 337 carries on a team that obviously couldn't rush last year. Given the new coaching in ARI, unless his body breaks down, shouldn't 337 be around the floor for him in 2007? I'm not saying ARI will rush 500 times; only that Edge's portion will still be there.

No other Cardinals RB had 20 carries last year. That seems unlikely to happen again, doesn't it?

No Colts RB other than James had close to 20 carries in a game in 03, 04, and 05. And all other Colts RBs COMBINED in 1999 AND 2000 (32 games) did not total 20 carries (including BOTH full seasons) let alone in a single game.

Dominic Rhodes had 40 and 53 carries during James' last two years in Indianapolis. I think it's unlikely that James gets such a high percentage of carries again this year. Do you disagree?

 

[David Yudkin]

Edge managed 337 carries on a team that obviously couldn't rush last year. Given the new coaching in ARI, unless his body breaks down, shouldn't 337 be around the floor for him in 2007? I'm not saying ARI will rush 500 times; only that Edge's portion will still be there.

No other Cardinals RB had 20 carries last year. That seems unlikely to happen again, doesn't it?

No Colts RB other than James had close to 20 carries in a game in 03, 04, and 05. And all other Colts RBs COMBINED in 1999 AND 2000 (32 games) did not total 20 carries (including BOTH full seasons) let alone in a single game.

Dominic Rhodes had 40 and 53 carries during James' last two years in Indianapolis. I think it's unlikely that James gets such a high percentage of carries again this year. Do you disagree?

I agree that Edge will not have as high a percentage of the workload, but that doesn't mean his workload will go down.I misread your original post (thinking you meant no other RB had 20 carries IN A GAME).

IMO, % of workload is overhyped. IIRC, Ricky Williams had like 380 or 390 carries a few years but his carry % was lower than several other backs because the Fins ran so much.

 

[Chase Stuart]

As I suspected, James had a higher percentage of his team's carries than any other RB1 in the league.

Edgerrin James	   89.4%	337	377Larry Johnson		88.5%	416	470Steven Jackson	   87.4%	346	396Rudi Johnson		 86.8%	341	393Frank Gore		   81.9%	312	381Willie Parker		81.2%	337	415Jamal Lewis		  78.3%	314	401Chester Taylor	   77.1%	303	393Tiki Barber		  76.8%	327	426LaDainian Tomlinson  75.5%	348	461Travis Henry		 71.2%	270	379Warrick Dunn		 70.6%	286	405Willis McGahee	   70.4%	259	368Reuben Droughns	  70.3%	220	313Kevin Jones		  68.6%	181	264Brian Westbrook	  67.8%	240	354Ronnie Brown		 67.3%	241	358Ahman Green		  67.2%	266	396Cadillac Williams	65.0%	225	346Thomas Jones		 62.8%	296	471Julius Jones		 62.7%	267	426DeShaun Foster	   58.4%	227	389Ladell Betts		 57.4%	245	427Deuce McAllister	 57.1%	244	427Shaun Alexander	  56.1%	252	449Tatum Bell		   54.7%	233	426Joseph Addai		 54.3%	226	416Fred Taylor		  53.7%	231	430Justin Fargas		50.6%	178	352Corey Dillon		 46.1%	199	432Ron Dayne			41.4%	151	365Leon Washington	  35.4%	151	426

 

[Chase Stuart]

Edge managed 337 carries on a team that obviously couldn't rush last year. Given the new coaching in ARI, unless his body breaks down, shouldn't 337 be around the floor for him in 2007? I'm not saying ARI will rush 500 times; only that Edge's portion will still be there.

No other Cardinals RB had 20 carries last year. That seems unlikely to happen again, doesn't it?

No Colts RB other than James had close to 20 carries in a game in 03, 04, and 05. And all other Colts RBs COMBINED in 1999 AND 2000 (32 games) did not total 20 carries (including BOTH full seasons) let alone in a single game.

Dominic Rhodes had 40 and 53 carries during James' last two years in Indianapolis. I think it's unlikely that James gets such a high percentage of carries again this year. Do you disagree?

I agree that Edge will not have as high a percentage of the workload, but that doesn't mean his workload will go down.I misread your original post (thinking you meant no other RB had 20 carries IN A GAME).

IMO, % of workload is overhyped. IIRC, Ricky Williams had like 380 or 390 carries a few years but his carry % was lower than several other backs because the Fins ran so much.

Word. I'm not saying his workload will go down, I was pointing out that just because Arizona runs more often this year, it does not mean that James can't have fewer carries. He got nearly all of them last year, but may see a smaller piece of a bigger pie in 2007.

 

[Dirty Weasel]

Although I agree it's possible Edge has fewer carries, he has the same backups who haven't impressed anyone. No reason to think Edge won't get his massive % of the carries. He always has in his career. The only way I see him with less than his usual amount is injury.

 

[nygiants56]

I'd bank on 325 carries, minimum. I do think Az runs the ball much more effectively in 2007, they have all the tools in place. They have good WR's ( even Bryant Johnson is as good a #3 WR as there is in the league). The O-line, while nothing special, gets a big boost from LEei Brown's presence on the right side ( coincidentally, Edge avg'd just 2.9 per carry running right last season, Brown should help move that number way up).

Aside from the knee injury years back, Edge has been remarkable durable. Towards the end of the season, it appeared that the O-line was starting to jel, and Edge had his best games of 2006 in the final 6-7 weeks. That's likely to carryover to 2007. As Leinart got to be more proficient, defenses began to respect the pass more, leaving the running lanes open for Edge. As Leinart begins to flourish in Az, defenses will need to spend more time worrying about Boldin and Fitz, and that in turn,should free up Edge to do his thing to the tune of approx 1300-1400 rushing yards..

Grimm and Whisenhunt are good coaches, and they've never had a RB as talented as Edge before ( can catch and run extremely well). I'm sure they'll run him into the ground in 2007..

the fact that he started out slowly last season, can be tied to two thingS:

1. Warner and later a rookie at QB

2. he was playing on a new team,with a new different offensive philosophy that what he previously had in Indy.

I'd agree that Edge was over the hill if it wasn't for his mini-resurgence at the end of the 2006 season.

usually, older RB's fade the other way,i.e, they start out hot, then fade and slow down as the year goes on..Edge got stronger as the season's end..

 

[gianmarco]

I'd bank on 325 carries, minimum. I do think Az runs the ball much more effectively in 2007, they have all the tools in place. They have good WR's ( even Bryant Johnson is as good a #3 WR as there is in the league). The O-line, while nothing special, gets a big boost from LEei Brown's presence on the right side ( coincidentally, Edge avg'd just 2.9 per carry running right last season, Brown should help move that number way up).

Aside from the knee injury years back, Edge has been remarkable durable. Towards the end of the season, it appeared that the O-line was starting to jel, and Edge had his best games of 2006 in the final 6-7 weeks. That's likely to carryover to 2007. As Leinart got to be more proficient, defenses began to respect the pass more, leaving the running lanes open for Edge. As Leinart begins to flourish in Az, defenses will need to spend more time worrying about Boldin and Fitz, and that in turn,should free up Edge to do his thing to the tune of approx 1300-1400 rushing yards..

Grimm and Whisenhunt are good coaches, and they've never had a RB as talented as Edge before ( can catch and run extremely well). I'm sure they'll run him into the ground in 2007..

the fact that he started out slowly last season, can be tied to two thingS:

1. Warner and later a rookie at QB

2. he was playing on a new team,with a new different offensive philosophy that what he previously had in Indy.

I'd agree that Edge was over the hill if it wasn't for his mini-resurgence at the end of the 2006 season.

usually, older RB's fade the other way,i.e, they start out hot, then fade and slow down as the year goes on..Edge got stronger as the season's end..

A lot of people keep talking about how Edge finished strong and did well at the end of the season. Yes, he had three 100 yd games in the last 5 weeks. But it took him 26, 26, and 29 carries to do so, and he barely broke 100 (115 max). That's just not very good. He won't last carrying the ball 25+ times/game. If they do start giving him the ball that much, I'd be worried he makes it halfway thru the season. I just think there's very little upside to him and potentially a big downside with where he's being drafted.

 

[veto87]

I have a gut feeling that Edge starts to break down this yr... and a 300+ carry count won't help.

I was thinking the same thing before last year started , plus AZ is a graveyard for RBssome things never change like Death, Taxes, weak AZ RBs,Houston Texans sucking Michael Vick can't pass ...

 

[gianmarco]

I have a gut feeling that Edge starts to break down this yr... and a 300+ carry count won't help.

I was thinking the same thing before last year started , plus AZ is a graveyard for RBssome things never change like Death, Taxes, weak AZ RBs,Houston Texans sucking Michael Vick can't pass ...

And Detroit WR's?

 

[Chase Stuart]

usually, older RB's fade the other way,i.e, they start out hot, then fade and slow down as the year goes on.

Do you have a link to support that, or is that your opinion?

 

[Cecil Lammey]

Link to Kent Somers (Arizona Republic) interview

 

[veto87]

I have a gut feeling that Edge starts to break down this yr... and a 300+ carry count won't help.

I was thinking the same thing before last year started , plus AZ is a graveyard for RBssome things never change like Death, Taxes, weak AZ RBs,Houston Texans sucking Michael Vick can't pass ...

And Detroit WR's?

Don't even talk about that, I've been burned by Charles Rogers twice, though the second time I picked him off waivers. Too bad he never got it going, A+ talent F for effort

 

[veto87]

Link to Kent Somers (Arizona Republic) interview

Thanks CecilOne thing that stuck out for me in the interview was Kent Somers talking about running behind a fullback

"James is still the featured running back in this offense. He's going to have to make some adjustments. About half the time he's going to be running behind a fullback, which he hasn't done much in his NFL career, so that's going to be some adjustments on his part, but this staff is pretty confident that he can do it."

-- so can we expect another 1/2 season adjustment period for Edge running behind a fullback or will we see success like when Priest Holmes or LJ were running behind Tony Richardson ?

 

[Cecil Lammey]

Link to Kent Somers (Arizona Republic) interview

Thanks CecilOne thing that stuck out for me in the interview was Kent Somers talking about running behind a fullback

"James is still the featured running back in this offense. He's going to have to make some adjustments. About half the time he's going to be running behind a fullback, which he hasn't done much in his NFL career, so that's going to be some adjustments on his part, but this staff is pretty confident that he can do it."

-- so can we expect another 1/2 season adjustment period for Edge running behind a fullback or will we see success like when Priest Holmes or LJ were running behind Tony Richardson ?

very good point.

 

[kensat30]

Edge ran the ball damn near 350 times last season and he barely broke the top20.

 

[Carter_Can_Fly]

Edge ran the ball damn near 350 times last season and he barely broke the top20.

This is what people are failing to realize. He got the touches last season; I would remain very skeptical about James this season.

 

[David Yudkin]

Edge ran the ball damn near 350 times last season and he barely broke the top20.

This is what people are failing to realize. He got the touches last season; I would remain very skeptical about James this season.

You don't think Whisenhunt and Grimm will be able to improve the running game any?With 2 more TD and only 50 more yards Edge would have ranked 10th.

 

[gianmarco]

Edge ran the ball damn near 350 times last season and he barely broke the top20.

This is what people are failing to realize. He got the touches last season; I would remain very skeptical about James this season.

You don't think Whisenhunt and Grimm will be able to improve the running game any?With 2 more TD and only 50 more yards Edge would have ranked 10th.

If he can handle another 350 touches.

 

[Carter_Can_Fly]

Edge ran the ball damn near 350 times last season and he barely broke the top20.

This is what people are failing to realize. He got the touches last season; I would remain very skeptical about James this season.

You don't think Whisenhunt and Grimm will be able to improve the running game any?With 2 more TD and only 50 more yards Edge would have ranked 10th.

Edge has been a great runner in his career. The problem with Edge is he has now gone to an offense that hasn't been RB friendly for years and he has lost that burst that he had earlier in his career. I think the changes in Arizona will only marginaly improve Edge's numbers. Edge is not the runner he once was. Edge without burst isin't very good. In 2001 Edge played 6 games and tore up his knee and sat the rest of the season. He then came back in 2002 without any burst as he was still recovering from his knee injury and went on to have his worst season as a pro racking up 989 rush yards for a 3.6 ypc and 2 TD's.Fast Forward to last season Edge has lost that burst he once had and to make matters worst he is now playing with a far worst offense. He has a Sophmore QB who will have his ups and downs and a team that often will be playing from behind. It is hard for me to invision Edge going over 1200 yards this year (1159 rush yards last season).I think Edge has RB 2 written all over him but many are drafting hoping he will be RB 1 worthy.

 

[Carter_Can_Fly]

Edge ran the ball damn near 350 times last season and he barely broke the top20.

This is what people are failing to realize. He got the touches last season; I would remain very skeptical about James this season.

You don't think Whisenhunt and Grimm will be able to improve the running game any?With 2 more TD and only 50 more yards Edge would have ranked 10th.

2 more TD's and 50 more yards does not seem like a lot but in Arizona last season 2 rushing TD's and 50 yards was a whole lot.Considering James only averaged 72 yards rushing a game and in 3 of those games he didin't even reach 50 yards. Also, although 72 yards rushing was James average there was 10 games last season where Edge didin't even run for 70 yards (he lost a lot of weeks as a RB2 last season for owners)Also, James tied K. Barlow last season with 6 TD's and beat the great R. Dayne (5) by only 1. I know it is only 2 more TD's but we are talking about the Cardinals rushing attack here.

 

[donovanfan]

Edge is one of the few workhorse backs left in the NFL. His touches will ensure that he stays in the top-15, but he's unlikely in AZ to get back to the top 5.

 

[kensat30]

Edge ran the ball damn near 350 times last season and he barely broke the top20.

This is what people are failing to realize. He got the touches last season; I would remain very skeptical about James this season.

You don't think Whisenhunt and Grimm will be able to improve the running game any?With 2 more TD and only 50 more yards Edge would have ranked 10th.

I don't really see how Whisenhunt and Grimm are going to stop DL and LB from getting into the backfield breaking up every other play. With only 20 more points, a lot of RBs would move in the rankings. In fact, almost EVERY RB would move up in the rankings with an additional 25 fantasy points. What does that mean exactly for Edge? WHY is he going to get an extra 2 TDs and 50 more yards?That O-line has to be considered a work in progress at best IMO. In fact, I would go so far as to say that if an expert were to grade the line as "average" overall, he would be going out on a limb. And for all the "we're gonna run 500 times" offensive philsophy stuff being thrown around, I'm sorry, but Arizona is not going to be able to run the ball 500 times this coming season. They are just not going to be in enough games IMO. They are one of the bottom teams in quite possibly the worst division in the NFL. And even if they do manage to run the ball 500+ times, Edge can only run the ball so many times. The projected upside there has to come from an increase in effectiveness. Maybe I'm just skeptical because I bought into the whole "he's gonna get a ton of carries, he must have value" theory last year with a guy named Jamal Lewis.

 

[The Man with the Plan]

Forget about the line. Forget about the coaches/miracle workers. Forget about 500 carries. In the end it all comes down to Matt Leinart. When his play improved so did Edge's. If Leinart is as good as everybody says he is (with those receivers) he should be, then Edgerrin James will benefit. If Leinart turns out to be a bust though...

 

[vandyt]

Was just readin the interview with Cards insider Kent Somers and he had this to say about the running game

They want to run the ball here. This is going to be, offensive philosophy wise, Pittsburgh west. That's the number one thing, and they want to run the ball 550 times this season, and I don't think the Cardinals, as an organization, have ever gone over 500 since they moved to Arizona in 1988. Edgerrin James obviously can't carry that huge of a load. They would like to keep his carries in the high 300s.

Was this directly from a transcript? If so, am I the only one who thinks that was a typo, and he really said high 200s? High 300s makes no sense in the context of the rest of the sentence.

 

[duaneok66]

Was just readin the interview with Cards insider Kent Somers and he had this to say about the running game

They want to run the ball here. This is going to be, offensive philosophy wise, Pittsburgh west. That's the number one thing, and they want to run the ball 550 times this season, and I don't think the Cardinals, as an organization, have ever gone over 500 since they moved to Arizona in 1988. Edgerrin James obviously can't carry that huge of a load. They would like to keep his carries in the high 300s.

Was this directly from a transcript? If so, am I the only one who thinks that was a typo, and he really said high 200s? High 300s makes no sense in the context of the rest of the sentence.

he said "high 300s" in the interview . . .

 

[vandyt]

Was just readin the interview with Cards insider Kent Somers and he had this to say about the running game

They want to run the ball here. This is going to be, offensive philosophy wise, Pittsburgh west. That's the number one thing, and they want to run the ball 550 times this season, and I don't think the Cardinals, as an organization, have ever gone over 500 since they moved to Arizona in 1988. Edgerrin James obviously can't carry that huge of a load. They would like to keep his carries in the high 300s.

Was this directly from a transcript? If so, am I the only one who thinks that was a typo, and he really said high 200s? High 300s makes no sense in the context of the rest of the sentence.

he said "high 300s" in the interview . . .

Weird. Given the way that first paragraph came out, Id have a hard time believing this writer really knows much.

 

[Sylira21]

Edge ran the ball damn near 350 times last season and he barely broke the top20.

This is what people are failing to realize. He got the touches last season; I would remain very skeptical about James this season.

You don't think Whisenhunt and Grimm will be able to improve the running game any?With 2 more TD and only 50 more yards Edge would have ranked 10th.

Another way to look at this is that Edge was 25th in PPG at the running back position last year (10.85 ppg). a 10% increase, like an extra 50 yards and two TDs, would only have moved him up to 18th. To get to 10th in PPG, he would have had to average about 14 PPG, or about a 30% increase (an extra 250 yards and an extra 4 TDs, say). Edge doesn't break big runs anymore. He has miserable per catch averages in the passing game. Arizona is very poor at scoring running TDs. Perhaps they will give him more work, or perhaps the line will really gel, but I'm not very sure of a dramatic increase, which is what it would take to get Edge to top-10 PPG status.

 

[AnonymousBob]

Edge is one of the few workhorse backs left in the NFL. His touches will ensure that he stays in the top-15, but he's unlikely in AZ to get back to the top 5.

He had the touches last season yet wasn't top 15. Why will that change this year?

 

[Carter_Can_Fly]

Edge ran the ball damn near 350 times last season and he barely broke the top20.

This is what people are failing to realize. He got the touches last season; I would remain very skeptical about James this season.

You don't think Whisenhunt and Grimm will be able to improve the running game any?With 2 more TD and only 50 more yards Edge would have ranked 10th.

Another way to look at this is that Edge was 25th in PPG at the running back position last year (10.85 ppg). a 10% increase, like an extra 50 yards and two TDs, would only have moved him up to 18th. To get to 10th in PPG, he would have had to average about 14 PPG, or about a 30% increase (an extra 250 yards and an extra 4 TDs, say). Edge doesn't break big runs anymore. He has miserable per catch averages in the passing game. Arizona is very poor at scoring running TDs. Perhaps they will give him more work, or perhaps the line will really gel, but I'm not very sure of a dramatic increase, which is what it would take to get Edge to top-10 PPG status.

This sums exactly why Edge should and will be an RB2 again this season, and an average one at best.

 

[David Yudkin]

Edge's ADP is currently RB17. Who else taken after him could reasonably be expected to see the ball as much as James and could be counted on to do as well?

RB1 LaDainian Tomlinson

RB2 Steven Jackson

RB3 Larry Johnson

RB4 Frank Gore

RB5 Shaun Alexander

RB6 Brian Westbrook

RB7 Joseph Addai

RB8 Willie Parker

RB9 Rudi Johnson

RB10 Laurence Maroney

RB11 Reggie Bush

RB12 Travis Henry

RB13 Willis McGahee

RB14 Ronnie Brown

RB15 Maurice Jones-Drew

RB16 Clinton Portis

RB17 Edgerrin James

 

[Sylira21]

Edge's ADP is currently RB17. Who else taken after him could reasonably be expected to see the ball as much as James and could be counted on to do as well?RB1 LaDainian Tomlinson RB2 Steven JacksonRB3 Larry JohnsonRB4 Frank GoreRB5 Shaun AlexanderRB6 Brian WestbrookRB7 Joseph Addai RB8 Willie Parker RB9 Rudi Johnson RB10 Laurence Maroney RB11 Reggie Bush RB12 Travis Henry RB13 Willis McGahee RB14 Ronnie Brown RB15 Maurice Jones-Drew RB16 Clinton Portis RB17 Edgerrin James

Very good question. While I don't see tremendous upside to Edge, his downside risk is rather small as well.If I had to pick a couple not being drafted ahead of him that could beat Edge out, I'd go with Ahman Green (should get a ton of work, and a lot of receptions) Marion Barber (if he could beat out JJ, which I think is quite possible) and Adrian Peterson (has the ability to be a big star). But these guys all are riskier picks than Edge.

 

[gianmarco]

Edge's ADP is currently RB17. Who else taken after him could reasonably be expected to see the ball as much as James and could be counted on to do as well?RB1 LaDainian Tomlinson RB2 Steven JacksonRB3 Larry JohnsonRB4 Frank GoreRB5 Shaun AlexanderRB6 Brian WestbrookRB7 Joseph Addai RB8 Willie Parker RB9 Rudi Johnson RB10 Laurence Maroney RB11 Reggie Bush RB12 Travis Henry RB13 Willis McGahee RB14 Ronnie Brown RB15 Maurice Jones-Drew RB16 Clinton Portis RB17 Edgerrin James

No one, really. RB17 is a good spot for him. I'd put A. Green and J. Lewis right there next to him. All 3 of those guys will get carries, are pretty "safe" picks, but all have little upside, including James. He's an average RB2 this year. There are guys lower than him with higher upside as well, but considerably more risk to go with it. He'd have to have pretty good value for me to take him. And considering you can get Lewis and Green considerably later than him, he's not a guy I plan on touching this year.