Effects of the Lockout - Advantage To Offense? Defense? (1 Viewer)

[Joe Bryant]

Obviously, this is going to be one of the weirdest years in a while given the fact that we had the lockout for the spring and early summer. Teams will hit training camp without the normal offseason work they're used to.

My question to you is how do you think this will effect the game this year?

Will the offenses be able to exploit the defenses still struggling to learn schemes? Will the defenses be able to play on athleticism and smother the offenses? Will it even out?

It's a general question I know but I guess the best way to frame it would be how you expect fantasy scoring to go this year. Will it be up, down or about even.

Let's hear it. And more importantly, let's hear why you think what you think.

J

 

[Raiderfan32904]

I think the short preseason favors the established teams. Teams that are breaking in new QB's and HC's are going to struggle offensively. I'd strategically avoid players from these teams. I'd like to see what teams maintain as much offensive continuity and uptick them. Teams with massive player movement especially to key offensive positions draw red flags.

I think early on, the good defenses will especially dominate, but as the season goes on, the balance will shift back to the offense, and it will be wide open after they work out the rust. I'd uptick the strong defenses, because they should provide more value out of the gate.

 

[GregR_2]

Teams with new head coaches and new systems will be hurt worst. I don't know off the top of my head how many new systems there are on offense versus defense... but if it's about even, then it should favor the defense. It takes less time for a defense to come together and gel than it does for an offense.

I'll also throw in that I think we're potentially looking at a big turnover at the QB position with how many rookie starters we might have. So we might have seen a downwards trend on offense even if it wasn't for the lockout. With the lockout, we might see that effect amplified.

 

[Chadstroma]

It will hurt offenses since offense relies more on timing and orchestration than D.

Obviously the teams that will do better will be the teams that keep most of their players and have the most coachs coming back with the same schemes.

 

[Tanner9919]

I think the short preseason favors the established teams. Teams that are breaking in new QB's and HC's are going to struggle offensively. I'd strategically avoid players from these teams. I'd like to see what teams maintain as much offensive continuity and uptick them. Teams with massive player movement especially to key offensive positions draw red flags. I think early on, the good defenses will especially dominate, but as the season goes on, the balance will shift back to the offense, and it will be wide open after they work out the rust. I'd uptick the strong defenses, because they should provide more value out of the gate.

good post!I know it's a tough to do so, but I'd probably avoid players like ADP and Chris Johnson...new starting QB's for each team might mean defenses will key on stopping the run...I'd expect both players' numbers to be down, perhaps significantly, during the first 5-7 weeks of the season.This means they will not produce stats relative to the draft position..I'm more inclined to go with (somewhat) safer bets, like Foster, Rice, Mendenhall, McFadden...I know McFadden has a new coaching staff, but his OC is Al Saunders - the guy knows a thing or two about coaching RB's! Teams like GB and Pitt will be be ready to go on opening day because they don't have a lot of player turnover..Giants might struggle a bit since they're RB and Wr situations are in flux

 

[GregR_2]

Sterling Sharpe was mentioning that offenses may be affected all season as starters get injured and backups who got even fewer reps than normal are in the huddle having to be told what to do on the play. Less ability to call audibles and do the adjustments that successful offenses make.

 

[rzrback77]

I think generally the defenses will outperform the offenses early on, with the exception of teams that are changing defensive systems.

I also think that some of the offenses (Carolina & Tennessee come to mind) will operate a much more simplified attack due to both new HC and new QB.

I still think that the number of votes should be bolded so that they can be more easily read since the bar chart frequently makes comparative reviews challenging.

 

[Angry Beavers]

Joe:

I think it would be an interesting article to note what Offenses and Defenses have turnover - not just in terms of personnel but also among HC, Cooridinators etc. I am sure ya'll are already planning on something like this, but just my .02.

That being said, I think that teams that have the most stability from last year are going to the be ones ahead of the curve (obviously) and I would think the D would be ahead of the Offense for the first part of the season as Defense is a lot more about reacting to what is happening as opposed to offenses that need timing.

While I think that we are going to see Defenses be more consistent, I also think that there will be more big plays that happen off of blown assignments. Therefore, while I expect a downtick in offense to start and possibly last well into the season, I do not think it will be as large as others are thinking due to the dreaded defensive blown assignment.

 

[Dentist]

I think the short preseason favors the established teams. Teams that are breaking in new QB's and HC's are going to struggle offensively. I'd strategically avoid players from these teams. I'd like to see what teams maintain as much offensive continuity and uptick them. Teams with massive player movement especially to key offensive positions draw red flags. I think early on, the good defenses will especially dominate, but as the season goes on, the balance will shift back to the offense, and it will be wide open after they work out the rust. I'd uptick the strong defenses, because they should provide more value out of the gate.

this is pretty much my exact opinion.With a full month of preparation, the experienced teams won't notice any difference.It will be interesting to see how the coaches handle the preseason games.But I would downgrade all rooks one notch, and expect the performance of teams with new head coaches or new offenses to be hit the hardest.also any team with a new QB could have a rough start

 

[Joe Bryant]

Joe:I think it would be an interesting article to note what Offenses and Defenses have turnover - not just in terms of personnel but also among HC, Cooridinators etc. I am sure ya'll are already planning on something like this, but just my .02.That being said, I think that teams that have the most stability from last year are going to the be ones ahead of the curve (obviously) and I would think the D would be ahead of the Offense for the first part of the season as Defense is a lot more about reacting to what is happening as opposed to offenses that need timing.While I think that we are going to see Defenses be more consistent, I also think that there will be more big plays that happen off of blown assignments. Therefore, while I expect a downtick in offense to start and possibly last well into the season, I do not think it will be as large as others are thinking due to the dreaded defensive blown assignment.

Thanks. I've been kicking around the idea for an article just like you're saying. Just wasn't sure how to frame it. That's partly why I asked here to get some feedback as to what you guys thought. Thanks.J

 

[Ilov80s]

Joe:I think it would be an interesting article to note what Offenses and Defenses have turnover - not just in terms of personnel but also among HC, Cooridinators etc. I am sure ya'll are already planning on something like this, but just my .02.That being said, I think that teams that have the most stability from last year are going to the be ones ahead of the curve (obviously) and I would think the D would be ahead of the Offense for the first part of the season as Defense is a lot more about reacting to what is happening as opposed to offenses that need timing.While I think that we are going to see Defenses be more consistent, I also think that there will be more big plays that happen off of blown assignments. Therefore, while I expect a downtick in offense to start and possibly last well into the season, I do not think it will be as large as others are thinking due to the dreaded defensive blown assignment.

Thanks. I've been kicking around the idea for an article just like you're saying. Just wasn't sure how to frame it. That's partly why I asked here to get some feedback as to what you guys thought. Thanks.J

I think it is a very good topic. I don't think it will automatically benefit an offense or a defense. I think it is more likely to reward units with a higher level of consistency whether that unit is offense or defense. You could breakdown the teams that have experienced huge changes at HC,OC,DC, and QB alongside the teams retaining those key players but seeing a big shakeup in a particular unit or area. Finally, highlight the teams that have seen little change from 2010 to 2011- those teams may be most likely to get off to a hot start. There is always the chance of overanalysis here, but it really makes a lot of sense to give advantages to players playing on teams whom have had more than 6 weeks to learn the system, playbook, reads, etc.

 

[GregR_2]

Heard an interesting comment just now from Michael Lombardi more about the new CBA rules than the lockout.

Derrin Horton: Do you lose anything when you don't have 2 a days at these practices?Lombardi: I'll give you a perfect example. There's a play called "Power". It's run by offensive teams, it's a running play. The 49ers run it a lot. It's a play that takes a lot of work. It takes a lot of contact. It takes a lot of preparation. It takes a lot of practice. That play to me might become obsolete in the NFL because there is not enough time to actually practice that play. Which could affect a team like the 49ers. Jim Harbaugh... at Stanford ran Power 45% of the time. He was a Power team. How do you practice Power now without a lot of practice? I think it's going to be difficult, play will be sloppy. Some teams run it, but to really live off of it you have to practice it constantly and that's not in the cards with how we're practicing. So I think there are going to be some plays that get eliminated from football because there is not enough time to practice it.

 

[renesauz]

Defenses are almost always ahead of offenses in the early going. With shorter camps, and less time to install offensive systems....that may extend a couple extra weeks into the season.

Slight downtick....almost went for "solid downtick" but there are a handful of veteran offenses NOT changing much that might just light up the early season.