Actually, Graham is
not outside everybody's top 20 -
I have him at #18. I've also drafted him in a lot of leagues this year, including the
MB/Staff Survivor league 9. So it is safe to say I am highest among the staff on Earnest Graham. Here's why:
Graham has a good mix of opportunity + talent + health, which is what yields FP. He is healthy, he has minimal miles on his tires after only part of a season as starter. Mentally, he is where he needs to be with a new contract that pays him OK for this season and he's entering his 5th NFL season, all with Tampa Bay (he knows the Gruden offense very well now after all those reps the past 4 years). Talent-wise, he is adequate and suited to grind out the yards for TB's offense. Opportunity-wise, he's in good shape because:
A. Warrick Dunn has a ton of miles on his tires and averaged a pathetic 3.1 yards per carry last year (and a career-worst 6.4 yards per reception). Dunn is 33 entering training camp - his best years are clearly behind him - he lost 2 steps last season, IMO. For those who assert "Atlanta's offense was horrid" I'll point out that Jerious Norwood averaged 6.0 yards per carry last season (102/615/1) on over 100 carries, and 9.9 yards per reception (28/277/0) - Dunn lost his top gear over the past couple of years (5.0, 4.0, 3.1 yards per carry at 30 years, 31 years, 32 years old...) and is a minimal threat to Graham's playing time, IMO.
B. Cadillac Williams is done for 2008, IMO. His knee blew apart late last year (Patellar tendon Surgery, December) and he has yet to start taking any kind of contact. He is
running "parachute drills" as of last week, which is remarkable for only 9 months removed from the type of surgery he had (usual prognosis is 9-12 months to recover), but I don't think he'll be in game shape until mid-season, at earliest. Even then, he's not shown an ability to stay healthy - I'd be surprised to see him take up any meaningful PT this year (and, honestly, in subsequent years - he's not holding up to the pounding at the NFL level).
For future years, Graham is a question mark depending on how productive he is this season and free agency 2009 (as is true of any NFL player), but IMO he'll have every opportunity and has adequate talent to easily surpass last year's numbers in his current situation in Tampa Bay. Also, he snagged 49 passes last season so the thought that he's going to lose 2nd and 3rd down PT is highly speculative and hypothetical, IMO. Dunn wasn't any better (actually marginally worse) at catching the ball out of the backfield last year in Atlanta, when the Falcons sorely needed someone to catch Harrington's short passes...
My .02.