Evan Longoria (1 Viewer)

[ianfitzy]

I have seen Longoria shooting up the draft boards to the point where is he getting picked in the 2nd round. It seems a little high but it seems that if you want Longoria then you are going to have to pick him in the 2nd round otherwise you won't get him. I will be drafting next week in a CBS points league and am thinking hard about using my 2nd round pick on him even if I have the 6th or higher pick. I just view the upside of him at 3B greater than drafting Hamilton or Kinsler.

What are reasonable projections for Longoria? Does he have a sophomore slump or continue to rack? My hope is something like .280 35 hrs 100 rbis 10 sb but that could be a little high.

 

[Oh Yes!]

I have seen Longoria shooting up the draft boards to the point where is he getting picked in the 2nd round. It seems a little high but it seems that if you want Longoria then you are going to have to pick him in the 2nd round otherwise you won't get him. I will be drafting next week in a CBS points league and am thinking hard about using my 2nd round pick on him even if I have the 6th or higher pick. I just view the upside of him at 3B greater than drafting Hamilton or Kinsler. What are reasonable projections for Longoria? Does he have a sophomore slump or continue to rack? My hope is something like .280 35 hrs 100 rbis 10 sb but that could be a little high.

i have him penciled in for .286 32hrs and 119 rbis. sounds like a 2nd rounder to megot potential to hit 40. i remember steve stone saying this kid is gonna be a perennial 40 hr a year guy. steve stone doesnt lie.

 

[Eephus]

I have seen Longoria shooting up the draft boards to the point where is he getting picked in the 2nd round. It seems a little high but it seems that if you want Longoria then you are going to have to pick him in the 2nd round otherwise you won't get him. I will be drafting next week in a CBS points league and am thinking hard about using my 2nd round pick on him even if I have the 6th or higher pick. I just view the upside of him at 3B greater than drafting Hamilton or Kinsler. What are reasonable projections for Longoria? Does he have a sophomore slump or continue to rack? My hope is something like .280 35 hrs 100 rbis 10 sb but that could be a little high.

If you extrapolate his 2008 production over an extra 150 PAs, those numbers are achievable. Whether that production puts him into the #13-24 range depends on how you value position scarcity, pitchers vs. hitters, how far Arod slips, etc.

 

[trogg78]

I have seen Longoria shooting up the draft boards to the point where is he getting picked in the 2nd round. It seems a little high but it seems that if you want Longoria then you are going to have to pick him in the 2nd round otherwise you won't get him. I will be drafting next week in a CBS points league and am thinking hard about using my 2nd round pick on him even if I have the 6th or higher pick. I just view the upside of him at 3B greater than drafting Hamilton or Kinsler. What are reasonable projections for Longoria? Does he have a sophomore slump or continue to rack? My hope is something like .280 35 hrs 100 rbis 10 sb but that could be a little high.

I'd take brandon phillips first. He'd give you those same stats and 30 sb.

 

[MAC_32]

I don't think the risk is justified that early. I realize he's a quick learner and he didn't struggle that badly vs. lefties in the minors but I can't get past that K rate. I don't expect an average north of 280 and he doesn't steal many bags. Second rounder is too early for a 3 cat player in my book.

 

[PIK95]

I like him for 300ish-35-125 (gb Upton) and 100ish runs. Maybe 3-5 SB. I would take him 2nd round no doubt.

 

[the moops]

I'd take brandon phillips first. He'd give you those same stats and 30 sb.

 

[trogg78]

I'd take brandon phillips first. He'd give you those same stats and 30 sb.

Pre all-star break.Player A .275 16 hr 53rbi 6sbPlayer B .280 15 hr 58rbi 19sbWho would you rather have?

 

[MAC_32]

I'd take brandon phillips first. He'd give you those same stats and 30 sb.

Pre all-star break.Player A .275 16 hr 53rbi 6sbPlayer B .280 15 hr 58rbi 19sbWho would you rather have?

How about you tell me which one the outlier is536 AB 65 R 17 HR 75 RBI 25 SB .276 AVG 88 OPS+650 AB 107 R 30 HR 94 RBI 32 SB .288 AVG 105 OPS+559 AB 80 R 21 HR 78 RBI 23 SB .261 AVG 92 OPS+

 

[trogg78]

I'd take brandon phillips first. He'd give you those same stats and 30 sb.

Pre all-star break.Player A .275 16 hr 53rbi 6sbPlayer B .280 15 hr 58rbi 19sbWho would you rather have?

How about you tell me which one the outlier is536 AB 65 R 17 HR 75 RBI 25 SB .276 AVG 88 OPS+650 AB 107 R 30 HR 94 RBI 32 SB .288 AVG 105 OPS+559 AB 80 R 21 HR 78 RBI 23 SB .261 AVG 92 OPS+

Last year after the all-star break he was hurt, and the team got upended. I expect him to improve on 2007 this year. There is no arguing he didn't finish off the season very well, but how can you deny what he did the first half of the season after what he did in 2007? The outlier, if I understand it correctly, is his 2008 post all-star break stats;.225 6hr 20rbi and only 4sb ----do you disagree?

 

[MAC_32]

I'd take brandon phillips first. He'd give you those same stats and 30 sb.

Pre all-star break.Player A .275 16 hr 53rbi 6sbPlayer B .280 15 hr 58rbi 19sbWho would you rather have?

How about you tell me which one the outlier is536 AB 65 R 17 HR 75 RBI 25 SB .276 AVG 88 OPS+650 AB 107 R 30 HR 94 RBI 32 SB .288 AVG 105 OPS+559 AB 80 R 21 HR 78 RBI 23 SB .261 AVG 92 OPS+

Last year after the all-star break he was hurt, and the team got upended. I expect him to improve on 2007 this year. There is no arguing he didn't finish off the season very well, but how can you deny what he did the first half of the season after what he did in 2007? The outlier, if I understand it correctly, is his 2008 post all-star break stats;.225 6hr 20rbi and only 4sb ----do you disagree?

We'll find out, but I'm betting on aggregate 06/08 production, something like 85/22/80/25/275. If he fell behind Granderson, Markakis, Bay, and Kemp I'd consider him.

 

[trogg78]

I'd take brandon phillips first. He'd give you those same stats and 30 sb.

Pre all-star break.Player A .275 16 hr 53rbi 6sbPlayer B .280 15 hr 58rbi 19sbWho would you rather have?

How about you tell me which one the outlier is536 AB 65 R 17 HR 75 RBI 25 SB .276 AVG 88 OPS+650 AB 107 R 30 HR 94 RBI 32 SB .288 AVG 105 OPS+559 AB 80 R 21 HR 78 RBI 23 SB .261 AVG 92 OPS+

Last year after the all-star break he was hurt, and the team got upended. I expect him to improve on 2007 this year. There is no arguing he didn't finish off the season very well, but how can you deny what he did the first half of the season after what he did in 2007? The outlier, if I understand it correctly, is his 2008 post all-star break stats;.225 6hr 20rbi and only 4sb ----do you disagree?

We'll find out, but I'm betting on aggregate 06/08 production, something like 85/22/80/25/275. If he fell behind Granderson, Markakis, Bay, and Kemp I'd consider him.

Color me confused. granderson, markakis, and kemp have never hit 30hrs and bay hasn't stolen 30, Phillips has proved he can do both, and he was well on his way last year of doing it again.

 

[Eephus]

I'd take brandon phillips first. He'd give you those same stats and 30 sb.

Pre all-star break.Player A .275 16 hr 53rbi 6sbPlayer B .280 15 hr 58rbi 19sbWho would you rather have?

How about you tell me which one the outlier is536 AB 65 R 17 HR 75 RBI 25 SB .276 AVG 88 OPS+650 AB 107 R 30 HR 94 RBI 32 SB .288 AVG 105 OPS+559 AB 80 R 21 HR 78 RBI 23 SB .261 AVG 92 OPS+

Last year after the all-star break he was hurt, and the team got upended. I expect him to improve on 2007 this year. There is no arguing he didn't finish off the season very well, but how can you deny what he did the first half of the season after what he did in 2007? The outlier, if I understand it correctly, is his 2008 post all-star break stats;.225 6hr 20rbi and only 4sb ----do you disagree?

We'll find out, but I'm betting on aggregate 06/08 production, something like 85/22/80/25/275. If he fell behind Granderson, Markakis, Bay, and Kemp I'd consider him.

Color me confused. granderson, markakis, and kemp have never hit 30hrs and bay hasn't stolen 30, Phillips has proved he can do both, and he was well on his way last year of doing it again.

Two words: Evan Longoria

 

[MAC_32]

I'd take brandon phillips first. He'd give you those same stats and 30 sb.

Pre all-star break.Player A .275 16 hr 53rbi 6sbPlayer B .280 15 hr 58rbi 19sbWho would you rather have?

How about you tell me which one the outlier is536 AB 65 R 17 HR 75 RBI 25 SB .276 AVG 88 OPS+650 AB 107 R 30 HR 94 RBI 32 SB .288 AVG 105 OPS+559 AB 80 R 21 HR 78 RBI 23 SB .261 AVG 92 OPS+

Last year after the all-star break he was hurt, and the team got upended. I expect him to improve on 2007 this year. There is no arguing he didn't finish off the season very well, but how can you deny what he did the first half of the season after what he did in 2007? The outlier, if I understand it correctly, is his 2008 post all-star break stats;.225 6hr 20rbi and only 4sb ----do you disagree?

We'll find out, but I'm betting on aggregate 06/08 production, something like 85/22/80/25/275. If he fell behind Granderson, Markakis, Bay, and Kemp I'd consider him.

Color me confused. granderson, markakis, and kemp have never hit 30hrs and bay hasn't stolen 30, Phillips has proved he can do both, and he was well on his way last year of doing it again.

You're focusing on two categories, there are three others.

 

[trogg78]

I'd take brandon phillips first. He'd give you those same stats and 30 sb.

Pre all-star break.Player A .275 16 hr 53rbi 6sbPlayer B .280 15 hr 58rbi 19sbWho would you rather have?

How about you tell me which one the outlier is536 AB 65 R 17 HR 75 RBI 25 SB .276 AVG 88 OPS+650 AB 107 R 30 HR 94 RBI 32 SB .288 AVG 105 OPS+559 AB 80 R 21 HR 78 RBI 23 SB .261 AVG 92 OPS+

Last year after the all-star break he was hurt, and the team got upended. I expect him to improve on 2007 this year. There is no arguing he didn't finish off the season very well, but how can you deny what he did the first half of the season after what he did in 2007? The outlier, if I understand it correctly, is his 2008 post all-star break stats;.225 6hr 20rbi and only 4sb ----do you disagree?

We'll find out, but I'm betting on aggregate 06/08 production, something like 85/22/80/25/275. If he fell behind Granderson, Markakis, Bay, and Kemp I'd consider him.

Color me confused. granderson, markakis, and kemp have never hit 30hrs and bay hasn't stolen 30, Phillips has proved he can do both, and he was well on his way last year of doing it again.

You're focusing on two categories, there are three others.

How does Phillips compare in the other 3?

 

[MAC_32]

I'd take brandon phillips first. He'd give you those same stats and 30 sb.

Pre all-star break.Player A .275 16 hr 53rbi 6sbPlayer B .280 15 hr 58rbi 19sbWho would you rather have?

How about you tell me which one the outlier is536 AB 65 R 17 HR 75 RBI 25 SB .276 AVG 88 OPS+650 AB 107 R 30 HR 94 RBI 32 SB .288 AVG 105 OPS+559 AB 80 R 21 HR 78 RBI 23 SB .261 AVG 92 OPS+

Last year after the all-star break he was hurt, and the team got upended. I expect him to improve on 2007 this year. There is no arguing he didn't finish off the season very well, but how can you deny what he did the first half of the season after what he did in 2007? The outlier, if I understand it correctly, is his 2008 post all-star break stats;.225 6hr 20rbi and only 4sb ----do you disagree?

We'll find out, but I'm betting on aggregate 06/08 production, something like 85/22/80/25/275. If he fell behind Granderson, Markakis, Bay, and Kemp I'd consider him.

Color me confused. granderson, markakis, and kemp have never hit 30hrs and bay hasn't stolen 30, Phillips has proved he can do both, and he was well on his way last year of doing it again.

You're focusing on two categories, there are three others.

How does Phillips compare in the other 3?

Not goodPhillips 85/80/275Granderson 120/75/295Markakis 100/100/300Kemp 95/95/295Bay 105/105/285

 

[trogg78]

I'd take brandon phillips first. He'd give you those same stats and 30 sb.

Pre all-star break.Player A .275 16 hr 53rbi 6sbPlayer B .280 15 hr 58rbi 19sbWho would you rather have?

How about you tell me which one the outlier is536 AB 65 R 17 HR 75 RBI 25 SB .276 AVG 88 OPS+650 AB 107 R 30 HR 94 RBI 32 SB .288 AVG 105 OPS+559 AB 80 R 21 HR 78 RBI 23 SB .261 AVG 92 OPS+

Last year after the all-star break he was hurt, and the team got upended. I expect him to improve on 2007 this year. There is no arguing he didn't finish off the season very well, but how can you deny what he did the first half of the season after what he did in 2007? The outlier, if I understand it correctly, is his 2008 post all-star break stats;.225 6hr 20rbi and only 4sb ----do you disagree?

We'll find out, but I'm betting on aggregate 06/08 production, something like 85/22/80/25/275. If he fell behind Granderson, Markakis, Bay, and Kemp I'd consider him.

Color me confused. granderson, markakis, and kemp have never hit 30hrs and bay hasn't stolen 30, Phillips has proved he can do both, and he was well on his way last year of doing it again.

You're focusing on two categories, there are three others.

How does Phillips compare in the other 3?

Not goodPhillips 85/80/275Granderson 120/75/295Markakis 100/100/300Kemp 95/95/295Bay 105/105/285

His potential is right in line with those numbers...We've seen him hit .288 for a whole season and get 100 runs and 94rbi.

 

[MAC_32]

His potential is right in line with those numbers...We've seen him hit .288 for a whole season and get 100 runs and 94rbi.

Potential and expectations are not the same thing.

 

[trogg78]

His potential is right in line with those numbers...We've seen him hit .288 for a whole season and get 100 runs and 94rbi.

Potential and expectations are not the same thing.

Since he has done it before, than the potential and expectations are much closer. Good debate.

 

[ianfitzy]

This is an Evan Longoria thread. Brandon Phillips may be good but he plays 2B and not 3B which is a big reason why some are taking Longoria in the 2nd or thinking about it. Phillips is good but he doesn't have the HR potential of Longoria.

 

[MAC_32]

Brandon Phillips may be good but he plays 2B and not 3B which is a big reason why some are taking Longoria in the 2nd or thinking about it.

 

[ianfitzy]

Brandon Phillips may be good but he plays 2B and not 3B which is a big reason why some are taking Longoria in the 2nd or thinking about it.

Well, in then 2nd round if you want a 2B you can choose between Utley, Pedroia, Kinsler and Phillips, chances are you might wait until the 3rd or 4th and still be able to get one of them or Roberts.If you want a top 3B now that A-Rod is injured, you get to choose between Wright, Longoria or A-Ram. Wright will be gone in the top 5 picks so now if you want to make sure you want a top tier 3B, you are left with a decision that if you don't draft Longoria in the 2nd, you won't get a top 3B if that is your plan.3B has more position scarcity this year than 2B IMO.

 

[trogg78]

Brandon Phillips may be good but he plays 2B and not 3B which is a big reason why some are taking Longoria in the 2nd or thinking about it.

Well, in then 2nd round if you want a 2B you can choose between Utley, Pedroia, Kinsler and Phillips, chances are you might wait until the 3rd or 4th and still be able to get one of them or Roberts.If you want a top 3B now that A-Rod is injured, you get to choose between Wright, Longoria or A-Ram. Wright will be gone in the top 5 picks so now if you want to make sure you want a top tier 3B, you are left with a decision that if you don't draft Longoria in the 2nd, you won't get a top 3B if that is your plan.3B has more position scarcity this year than 2B IMO.

I think Chase Utley, BP, and Uggla are the only 2b that can hit 30hr.At 3rd: A-rod, Wright, Cantu, Reynolds, Longoria, Encarnacion, Aramis Ramirez, Adrian Beltre, Garett Atkins, Ryan zimmerman, Hank Blalock....hell even Bill Hall has hit 30 hrs....anybody got any others?

 

[MAC_32]

Brandon Phillips may be good but he plays 2B and not 3B which is a big reason why some are taking Longoria in the 2nd or thinking about it.

Well, in then 2nd round if you want a 2B you can choose between Utley, Pedroia, Kinsler and Phillips, chances are you might wait until the 3rd or 4th and still be able to get one of them or Roberts.If you want a top 3B now that A-Rod is injured, you get to choose between Wright, Longoria or A-Ram. Wright will be gone in the top 5 picks so now if you want to make sure you want a top tier 3B, you are left with a decision that if you don't draft Longoria in the 2nd, you won't get a top 3B if that is your plan.3B has more position scarcity this year than 2B IMO.

I think that's a very poor way to walk into a draft. Just because Longoria may be the second best 3B available (3rd best if Miggy qualifies in your league) does not mean he is worth a 2nd round pick. Who would you rather draft in the 2nd round? An $18 player like Longoria? or a $23 player like Beltran?My basic math tells me Beltran ($23) + Beltre ($11) is better than your Longoria ($18) + Milton Bradley ($8), I chose Beltre and Bradley because they seem to have similar ADP's.I agree there's a huge fall off after Wright, that does not mean it'd be correct to reach for the next best 3B.

 

[ianfitzy]

Brandon Phillips may be good but he plays 2B and not 3B which is a big reason why some are taking Longoria in the 2nd or thinking about it.

Well, in then 2nd round if you want a 2B you can choose between Utley, Pedroia, Kinsler and Phillips, chances are you might wait until the 3rd or 4th and still be able to get one of them or Roberts.If you want a top 3B now that A-Rod is injured, you get to choose between Wright, Longoria or A-Ram. Wright will be gone in the top 5 picks so now if you want to make sure you want a top tier 3B, you are left with a decision that if you don't draft Longoria in the 2nd, you won't get a top 3B if that is your plan.3B has more position scarcity this year than 2B IMO.

I think Chase Utley, BP, and Uggla are the only 2b that can hit 30hr.At 3rd: A-rod, Wright, Cantu, Reynolds, Longoria, Encarnacion, Aramis Ramirez, Adrian Beltre, Garett Atkins, Ryan zimmerman, Hank Blalock....hell even Bill Hall has hit 30 hrs....anybody got any others?

This is flawed logic too... HRs is only one category or pt producer. Reynolds may hit 30 HRs but he will hit 250-260 with a ton of Ks. Encarncion might jack out 30 but more likely hit .250 with 25 hrs since he still has never hit 30 hrs. Cantu can jack up 30 possibly, he hasn't yet but he will have a .330 OBP, maybe less.A-Ram is a solid all around producer so that's fine.Beltre has only hit more than 30 HRs, 1 time in 10 years so he probably won't, and he will only be at .330 OBP.Atkins is solid and not spectacular and hasn't hit 30 in his career so unlikely.Zimmerman hasn't hit 30 and he won't get many runs and his upside right now is probably .290 30 hrs with a more likely production of .280 25 hrs if he is healthy.Blalock hasn't had a full season since 2006 and even then he only hit 16 hrs.So while all these guys may hit 30 hrs, chances are most of them won't and chances are if they do, they are lacking in another area of production such as average. It seems you just threw out names of 3B who have hit anything over 20 HRs in a season in their career. In his 1st year in 448 ABs, Longoria put up 27 HRs 85 RBIs a .272 AVG and .343 OBP. I say the worst to expect from him is .270 30 HRs 100 RBIs 7-10 SB. If he improves a little from last year in all categories over a full season, he will be 280 35 HRs 100+ RBIs 10 SB and if he fulfills his potential, and has no sophomore slump and adjusts a bit to the pitching he can be looking at .285 40HRs 120RBIs, this may seem unlikely but it is not out of the realm of possibility. Those numbers put him as a likely top 10 pick.

 

[ianfitzy]

Brandon Phillips may be good but he plays 2B and not 3B which is a big reason why some are taking Longoria in the 2nd or thinking about it.

Well, in then 2nd round if you want a 2B you can choose between Utley, Pedroia, Kinsler and Phillips, chances are you might wait until the 3rd or 4th and still be able to get one of them or Roberts.If you want a top 3B now that A-Rod is injured, you get to choose between Wright, Longoria or A-Ram. Wright will be gone in the top 5 picks so now if you want to make sure you want a top tier 3B, you are left with a decision that if you don't draft Longoria in the 2nd, you won't get a top 3B if that is your plan.3B has more position scarcity this year than 2B IMO.

I think that's a very poor way to walk into a draft. Just because Longoria may be the second best 3B available (3rd best if Miggy qualifies in your league) does not mean he is worth a 2nd round pick. Who would you rather draft in the 2nd round? An $18 player like Longoria? or a $23 player like Beltran?My basic math tells me Beltran ($23) + Beltre ($11) is better than your Longoria ($18) + Milton Bradley ($8), I chose Beltre and Bradley because they seem to have similar ADP's.I agree there's a huge fall off after Wright, that does not mean it'd be correct to reach for the next best 3B.

I am going to be drafting in a CBS H2H points league soon and using their projections and system, Longoria is projected at 530ish and Beltran is at 570ish.The difference between Ryan Zimmerman and Longoria is 90 pts while the difference between a Beltran and Rios is 55 pts. Zimmerman is ranked 7 spots below Longoria and Rios is ranked 7 below Beltran. So I would rather have Longoria and Rios than Beltran and Zimmerman.

 

[MAC_32]

Brandon Phillips may be good but he plays 2B and not 3B which is a big reason why some are taking Longoria in the 2nd or thinking about it.

Well, in then 2nd round if you want a 2B you can choose between Utley, Pedroia, Kinsler and Phillips, chances are you might wait until the 3rd or 4th and still be able to get one of them or Roberts.If you want a top 3B now that A-Rod is injured, you get to choose between Wright, Longoria or A-Ram. Wright will be gone in the top 5 picks so now if you want to make sure you want a top tier 3B, you are left with a decision that if you don't draft Longoria in the 2nd, you won't get a top 3B if that is your plan.3B has more position scarcity this year than 2B IMO.

I think that's a very poor way to walk into a draft. Just because Longoria may be the second best 3B available (3rd best if Miggy qualifies in your league) does not mean he is worth a 2nd round pick. Who would you rather draft in the 2nd round? An $18 player like Longoria? or a $23 player like Beltran?My basic math tells me Beltran ($23) + Beltre ($11) is better than your Longoria ($18) + Milton Bradley ($8), I chose Beltre and Bradley because they seem to have similar ADP's.I agree there's a huge fall off after Wright, that does not mean it'd be correct to reach for the next best 3B.

I am going to be drafting in a CBS H2H points league soon and using their projections and system, Longoria is projected at 530ish and Beltran is at 570ish.The difference between Ryan Zimmerman and Longoria is 90 pts while the difference between a Beltran and Rios is 55 pts. Zimmerman is ranked 7 spots below Longoria and Rios is ranked 7 below Beltran. So I would rather have Longoria and Rios than Beltran and Zimmerman.

Oh, you're using someone else's opinion, not your own. That'd have been nice to know.ETA: Rios is a top 50 pick, Zimmerman is not in most top 100's. Poor comparison.

 

[trogg78]

Brandon Phillips may be good but he plays 2B and not 3B which is a big reason why some are taking Longoria in the 2nd or thinking about it.

Well, in then 2nd round if you want a 2B you can choose between Utley, Pedroia, Kinsler and Phillips, chances are you might wait until the 3rd or 4th and still be able to get one of them or Roberts.If you want a top 3B now that A-Rod is injured, you get to choose between Wright, Longoria or A-Ram. Wright will be gone in the top 5 picks so now if you want to make sure you want a top tier 3B, you are left with a decision that if you don't draft Longoria in the 2nd, you won't get a top 3B if that is your plan.3B has more position scarcity this year than 2B IMO.

I think Chase Utley, BP, and Uggla are the only 2b that can hit 30hr.At 3rd: A-rod, Wright, Cantu, Reynolds, Longoria, Encarnacion, Aramis Ramirez, Adrian Beltre, Garett Atkins, Ryan zimmerman, Hank Blalock....hell even Bill Hall has hit 30 hrs....anybody got any others?

This is flawed logic too... HRs is only one category or pt producer. Reynolds may hit 30 HRs but he will hit 250-260 with a ton of Ks. Encarncion might jack out 30 but more likely hit .250 with 25 hrs since he still has never hit 30 hrs. Cantu can jack up 30 possibly, he hasn't yet but he will have a .330 OBP, maybe less.A-Ram is a solid all around producer so that's fine.Beltre has only hit more than 30 HRs, 1 time in 10 years so he probably won't, and he will only be at .330 OBP.Atkins is solid and not spectacular and hasn't hit 30 in his career so unlikely.Zimmerman hasn't hit 30 and he won't get many runs and his upside right now is probably .290 30 hrs with a more likely production of .280 25 hrs if he is healthy.Blalock hasn't had a full season since 2006 and even then he only hit 16 hrs.So while all these guys may hit 30 hrs, chances are most of them won't and chances are if they do, they are lacking in another area of production such as average. It seems you just threw out names of 3B who have hit anything over 20 HRs in a season in their career. In his 1st year in 448 ABs, Longoria put up 27 HRs 85 RBIs a .272 AVG and .343 OBP. I say the worst to expect from him is .270 30 HRs 100 RBIs 7-10 SB. If he improves a little from last year in all categories over a full season, he will be 280 35 HRs 100+ RBIs 10 SB and if he fulfills his potential, and has no sophomore slump and adjusts a bit to the pitching he can be looking at .285 40HRs 120RBIs, this may seem unlikely but it is not out of the realm of possibility. Those numbers put him as a likely top 10 pick.

I'm just saying that the power cats aren't there for 2b like they are for 3b.

 

[Homer @ RJ]

You know fantasy baseball is headed off the cliff when someone utters the phrase "Brandon Phillips is as valuable as Evan Longoria".

 

[Big Dumb Ape]

You know fantasy baseball is headed off the cliff when someone utters the phrase "Brandon Phillips is as valuable as Evan Longoria".

 

[Finless]

I took him with the 21st pick Counting on some big power numbers.

 

[Ghost of Bill Walsh]

I'd take Longoria in the 2nd round. There's some validity in opposite opinions about him but you won't be sorry you took him in the 2nd.Sometimes you gotta take a player a little earlier than you'd want to but I think he's got the potential and the expectations of having a very good season. As far as BPhilips I'd take Longoria over him and wait 'til later and possibly get Brian Roberts,Dan Uggla or Cano from the Yankees for 2B. With the A-Rod situation Longoria moves up to #3 on my 3rd base list.

 

[MAC_32]

Player A 550 AB .273 AVG 89 R 30 HR 99 RBI 7 SB

Player B 525 AB .260 AVG 85 R 28 HR 85 RBI 9 SB

Player A costs a 2nd round pick, player B costs an 18th round. Which would you rather have?

 

[Finless]

I'd take Longoria in the 2nd round. There's some validity in opposite opinions about him but you won't be sorry you took him in the 2nd.Sometimes you gotta take a player a little earlier than you'd want to but I think he's got the potential and the expectations of having a very good season. As far as BPhilips I'd take Longoria over him and wait 'til later and possibly get Brian Roberts,Dan Uggla or Cano from the Yankees for 2B. With the A-Rod situation Longoria moves up to #3 on my 3rd base list.

I'll assume you're counting Cabrera at 3rd?

 

[trogg78]

Player A 550 AB .273 AVG 89 R 30 HR 99 RBI 7 SB Player B 525 AB .260 AVG 85 R 28 HR 85 RBI 9 SBPlayer A costs a 2nd round pick, player B costs an 18th round. Which would you rather have?

Player a is going to hit 50 Homers this year.

 

[MAC_32]

Player A 550 AB .273 AVG 89 R 30 HR 99 RBI 7 SB Player B 525 AB .260 AVG 85 R 28 HR 85 RBI 9 SBPlayer A costs a 2nd round pick, player B costs an 18th round. Which would you rather have?

Player a is going to hit 50 Homers this year.

...and you'd take Brandon Phillips before him because he's going for 40/40, right?

 

[Finless]

Player A 550 AB .273 AVG 89 R 30 HR 99 RBI 7 SB Player B 525 AB .260 AVG 85 R 28 HR 85 RBI 9 SBPlayer A costs a 2nd round pick, player B costs an 18th round. Which would you rather have?

Player a is going to hit 50 Homers this year.

...and you'd take Brandon Phillips before him because he's going for 40/40, right?

Who's player B, Reynolds? And how can I get him in the 18th round.

 

[Ghost of Bill Walsh]

I'd take Longoria in the 2nd round. There's some validity in opposite opinions about him but you won't be sorry you took him in the 2nd.Sometimes you gotta take a player a little earlier than you'd want to but I think he's got the potential and the expectations of having a very good season. As far as BPhilips I'd take Longoria over him and wait 'til later and possibly get Brian Roberts,Dan Uggla or Cano from the Yankees for 2B. With the A-Rod situation Longoria moves up to #3 on my 3rd base list.

I'll assume you're counting Cabrera at 3rd?

Didn't know he was playing 3rd base, I figured him at 1st base, unless Detroit has moved him and I haven't been following his news.I have Miguel Cabrera as a top 10 overall pick and #2 1st baseman. Certainly Cabrera will be long gone before Longoria. I'm merely moving Evan up at 3rd base due to A-Rod's injury.There'll be other guys taken in the 2nd that'll put up better numbers than Longoria but just looking at his position. I might would choose someone other than him with my 2nd rd. pick depending on draft strategy and how I wanted to build my team.

 

[MAC_32]

Player A 550 AB .273 AVG 89 R 30 HR 99 RBI 7 SB Player B 525 AB .260 AVG 85 R 28 HR 85 RBI 9 SBPlayer A costs a 2nd round pick, player B costs an 18th round. Which would you rather have?

Player a is going to hit 50 Homers this year.

...and you'd take Brandon Phillips before him because he's going for 40/40, right?

Who's player B, Reynolds? And how can I get him in the 18th round.

Yes, it's Reynolds. His ADP in ESPN, Y!, and MDC the last I looked was > 200. I don't dare wait that long before taking him because I don't want to miss out on him but that's his going rate.

 

[Eephus]

Player A 550 AB .273 AVG 89 R 30 HR 99 RBI 7 SB Player B 525 AB .260 AVG 85 R 28 HR 85 RBI 9 SBPlayer A costs a 2nd round pick, player B costs an 18th round. Which would you rather have?

Player a is going to hit 50 Homers this year.

...and you'd take Brandon Phillips before him because he's going for 40/40, right?

Who's player B, Reynolds? And how can I get him in the 18th round.

Yes, it's Reynolds. His ADP in ESPN, Y!, and MDC the last I looked was > 200. I don't dare wait that long before taking him because I don't want to miss out on him but that's his going rate.

Player B hit .239 last year w/ a whiff rate of almost 38%. .260 is an optimistic projection for his AVG.

 

[MAC_32]

Player B hit .239 last year w/ a whiff rate of almost 38%. .260 is an optimistic projection for his AVG.

He hit 279 in 07 giving him a career MLB AVG of 255, his BB% improved in 08 leading me to believe he's becoming more patient at the plate, so I bumped him up a couple of hits from his career avg.

 

[Eephus]

Player B hit .239 last year w/ a whiff rate of almost 38%. .260 is an optimistic projection for his AVG.

He hit 279 in 07 giving him a career MLB AVG of 255, his BB% improved in 08 leading me to believe he's becoming more patient at the plate, so I bumped him up a couple of hits from his career avg.

His 2007 numbers were helped by a .386 BABIP. This is a crucial year for Reynolds. A 38% strikeout percentage is higher than Rob Deer's career mark. If it stays up there or continues to regress, he'll end up as the short end of a platoon and become a marginal player in fantasy and real-life. If he can reduce his whiffs by even a little, especially against RHP, he can have a decent career.But his best case scenario is still lower than Longoria's worst case, which is reflected in their draft positions.

 

[Finless]

I'd take Longoria in the 2nd round. There's some validity in opposite opinions about him but you won't be sorry you took him in the 2nd.Sometimes you gotta take a player a little earlier than you'd want to but I think he's got the potential and the expectations of having a very good season. As far as BPhilips I'd take Longoria over him and wait 'til later and possibly get Brian Roberts,Dan Uggla or Cano from the Yankees for 2B. With the A-Rod situation Longoria moves up to #3 on my 3rd base list.

I'll assume you're counting Cabrera at 3rd?

Didn't know he was playing 3rd base, I figured him at 1st base, unless Detroit has moved him and I haven't been following his news.I have Miguel Cabrera as a top 10 overall pick and #2 1st baseman. Certainly Cabrera will be long gone before Longoria. I'm merely moving Evan up at 3rd base due to A-Rod's injury.There'll be other guys taken in the 2nd that'll put up better numbers than Longoria but just looking at his position. I might would choose someone other than him with my 2nd rd. pick depending on draft strategy and how I wanted to build my team.

Okay David Wright. Who else are you putting in front of Longoria?

 

[Ghost of Bill Walsh]

I'd take Longoria in the 2nd round. There's some validity in opposite opinions about him but you won't be sorry you took him in the 2nd.Sometimes you gotta take a player a little earlier than you'd want to but I think he's got the potential and the expectations of having a very good season. As far as BPhilips I'd take Longoria over him and wait 'til later and possibly get Brian Roberts,Dan Uggla or Cano from the Yankees for 2B. With the A-Rod situation Longoria moves up to #3 on my 3rd base list.

I'll assume you're counting Cabrera at 3rd?

Didn't know he was playing 3rd base, I figured him at 1st base, unless Detroit has moved him and I haven't been following his news.I have Miguel Cabrera as a top 10 overall pick and #2 1st baseman. Certainly Cabrera will be long gone before Longoria. I'm merely moving Evan up at 3rd base due to A-Rod's injury.There'll be other guys taken in the 2nd that'll put up better numbers than Longoria but just looking at his position. I might would choose someone other than him with my 2nd rd. pick depending on draft strategy and how I wanted to build my team.

Okay David Wright. Who else are you putting in front of Longoria?

David Wright I have ranked #1 at 3rd. A-Rod would be #2 if not for his right hip surgery(torn Labrum & a cyst) so not sure what his timetable is to return so his ranking drops. Because of A-Rod I now have Aramis Ramirez (Cubs) ranked #2. He only played a 149 games last year yet had 160 hits,27 HR's,111 RBI's and 287 total bases. Even not playing only a few games last year I think his numbers will improve a little with a full game schedule.. His homers should increase along with a few more hits and rbi's.So actually I'm ranking Ramirez 2a and Longoria 2b and he could jump ahead of Ramirez if I feel he's gonna better Aramis this year, which is quite conceivable. If you use Longoria's 2008 stats, 122 games,122 hits,27 HR's,85 rbi's, you would expect all of his numbers to increase which could certainly better Ramirez's 2008 stats. The kid is young, uber talented and by season's end he could be right at the top of 3rd basemen along with David Wright. So when looking at just 3rd basemen I see Longoria finishing no worse than 3rd best at his position even if A-Rod makes an early comeback. This is just my opinion and I could be wrong but I don't think I am. Others may disagree which is fine, he may have a soph slump and really underperform which could happen to anyone. Yeah there are other 3rd base guys who are gonna put up good numbers this year and I wouldn't be unhappy having some of them, but given my choice if I don't get Wright I'll take Longoria even if it's in the 2nd round.

 

[MAC_32]

I'd take Longoria in the 2nd round. There's some validity in opposite opinions about him but you won't be sorry you took him in the 2nd.Sometimes you gotta take a player a little earlier than you'd want to but I think he's got the potential and the expectations of having a very good season. As far as BPhilips I'd take Longoria over him and wait 'til later and possibly get Brian Roberts,Dan Uggla or Cano from the Yankees for 2B. With the A-Rod situation Longoria moves up to #3 on my 3rd base list.

I'll assume you're counting Cabrera at 3rd?

Didn't know he was playing 3rd base, I figured him at 1st base, unless Detroit has moved him and I haven't been following his news.I have Miguel Cabrera as a top 10 overall pick and #2 1st baseman. Certainly Cabrera will be long gone before Longoria. I'm merely moving Evan up at 3rd base due to A-Rod's injury.There'll be other guys taken in the 2nd that'll put up better numbers than Longoria but just looking at his position. I might would choose someone other than him with my 2nd rd. pick depending on draft strategy and how I wanted to build my team.

Okay David Wright. Who else are you putting in front of Longoria?

David Wright I have ranked #1 at 3rd. A-Rod would be #2 if not for his right hip surgery(torn Labrum & a cyst) so not sure what his timetable is to return so his ranking drops. Because of A-Rod I now have Aramis Ramirez (Cubs) ranked #2. He only played a 149 games last year yet had 160 hits,27 HR's,111 RBI's and 287 total bases. Even not playing only a few games last year I think his numbers will improve a little with a full game schedule.. His homers should increase along with a few more hits and rbi's.

I don't see how you expect more AB's from A Ram than 2008, 554 is about par for the course. 31 year olds don't usually see their HR's increase either, I'd be surprised if he hits 25 again unless it comes at the expense of a declining average. He was very lucky last year and the contact rates have been trending downward three years and counting.

 

[Ghost of Bill Walsh]

Yeah, you're right. Didn't even look at A Ram's AB's. If anything in all likelyhood his numbers could decrease and Longoria stands a chance to outproduce him. Since he only played 122 games he'd better improve on his numbers or people will be dropping him down the rankings in 2010.

 

[The Man with the Plan]

Didn't we have this same convo about Ryan Braun last year? Anybody who drafted him probably wasn't complaining. If you think Evan Longoria will be a beast draft him. If not then don't. It's just that simple.

 

[MAC_32]

Didn't we have this same convo about Ryan Braun last year? Anybody who drafted him probably wasn't complaining. If you think Evan Longoria will be a beast draft him. If not then don't. It's just that simple.

I don't recall that, Braun stole bases and didn't strike out like Longoria. His batting average was due for a correction, but I don't think there was much question he'd bat below 285.

 

[Limp Ditka]

Didn't we have this same convo about Ryan Braun last year? Anybody who drafted him probably wasn't complaining. If you think Evan Longoria will be a beast draft him. If not then don't. It's just that simple.

I don't recall that, Braun stole bases and didn't strike out like Longoria. His batting average was due for a correction, but I don't think there was much question he'd bat below 285.

Braun's and Longorias Ks per ABs were almost equal in their respective rookie years.Braun .25 per AB (112 over 451 ABs)Longoria .27 per AB (122 over 448 ABs)And Longoria showed better plate discipline taking more walks than Braun did (46 - 29).

 

[MAC_32]

Didn't we have this same convo about Ryan Braun last year? Anybody who drafted him probably wasn't complaining. If you think Evan Longoria will be a beast draft him. If not then don't. It's just that simple.

I don't recall that, Braun stole bases and didn't strike out like Longoria. His batting average was due for a correction, but I don't think there was much question he'd bat below 285.

Braun's and Longorias Ks per ABs were almost equal in their respective rookie years.Braun .25 per AB (112 over 451 ABs)Longoria .27 per AB (122 over 448 ABs)And Longoria showed better plate discipline taking more walks than Braun did (46 - 29).

Braun's K rate has been lower than Longoria's his entire minor and major league career, it's the difference between a 290 hitter (Braun) and a 270 hitter (Longoria).