Expert Track Records (1 Viewer)

[Drop]

Of all the experts that work for footballguys.com who seems to be the best at figuring out situations and is right more often than not when going against the grain?

Who ranks the players the best upon going back and looking at predictions and projections? Does anyone seem to know certain positions, but not others when doing rankings? Who is just way off and overvalues trendy picks and sleepers, every year?

I'm sure that some of you have been here long enough and are smart enough to hold these experts accountable, so what trends have you seen?

Does the guy who rated Steven Jackson #31 overall in the magazine know what he is taking about?

 

[switz]

Of all the experts that work for footballguys.com who seems to be the best at figuring out situations and is right more often than not when going against the grain?Who ranks the players the best upon going back and looking at predictions and projections? Does anyone seem to know certain positions, but not others when doing rankings? Who is just way off and overvalues trendy picks and sleepers, every year?I'm sure that some of you have been here long enough and are smart enough to hold these experts accountable, so what trends have you seen?Does the guy who rated Steven Jackson #31 overall in the magazine know what he is taking about?

I don't know any of the FBGs that have that great of records. In fact, I'd probably take some board members advise over theirs, especially on team news.

 

[Mark Wimer]

Of all the experts that work for footballguys.com who seems to be the best at figuring out situations and is right more often than not when going against the grain?Who ranks the players the best upon going back and looking at predictions and projections? Does anyone seem to know certain positions, but not others when doing rankings? Who is just way off and overvalues trendy picks and sleepers, every year?I'm sure that some of you have been here long enough and are smart enough to hold these experts accountable, so what trends have you seen?Does the guy who rated Steven Jackson #31 overall in the magazine know what he is taking about?

If you'd like to read an extensive discussion of Steven Jackson's prospects and my reasons for being less enthusiastic than the rest of the staff, and many of the board members, there are several threads on the board addressing this subject. Use the search function and read through the material. There's a lot of great information and viewpoints in those threads.Mark Wimer

 

[Drop]

Mr Wimer

I appreciate the response, but I'd really like it if you joined the discussion. You have worked with these other guys, and can probably shed some light on who you may think is the best at certain things. I'm not saying that you have to put people down or anything, and if they can't handle the criticism that's a bigger problem in itself. You have to be able to stand behind your work, or how can you expect to have people pay for it?

With all the sources of information out there, what sets footballguys apart? What steps do you guys take to ensure that you just aren't carrying dead weight along year to year? Do people get fired for not being able to analyze things properly? There has to be a couple guys that are strong in certain areas and weak in others, what are your opinions on those people? That's all I'm asking, so when I do use the search feature to find certain things, I have some indications on who has real proven credibility over time. There will be multiple sides to most issues discussed here, so who has the proven past of being right becomes a big help. Who are the playmakers so to speak. The guys who go out on a limb, and then get to say, I told you so.

If you say S Jax is 31st, I am not saying you are right or wrong. I am saying that I am interested in why you would make such an unpopular projection. You may be a cut above the rest, so I have to find out if you have a proven track record or if you tend to make a few off base predictions based on information that you overvalue that others don't. I will read your articles, but please feel free to further this discussion in other facets if you have the time. Some people have a real knack for projections, and others just get projections based on other sources averages. Do you know who those people are? Would you mind sharing?

 

[bjabrad]

I have found a couple of articles to be the most helpful for my past success in fantasy football.

The Perfect Draft

Draft Dominator used as a mock draft tool.

Strength of Schedule becomes accurate after a few games where you can get a feel for who are the tough defense vs the run or the pass. This allows me to craft my roster through trades and pick ups. It also helps you offer up what seems like a very generous trade in week 8 that ends up being a great trade for you by the end of the season because you know that player A has played all of his easy defenses and is getting ready to go through his hell schedule. This helps you get into the playoffs and helps you win in the playoffs.

Weekly Cheatsheets give you an idea of who to start from your roster.

News gives you news from all over the country.

Shark Pool forum lets you share ideas from other high quality fantasy football owners. Provides game time updates of who's starting/sitting for last minute roster adjustments.

It's hard to say that one of these resources is better than the other because they all work together but I would say that after adding strength of schedule into my preparation that my performance has been dominating.

 

[David Yudkin]

FYI -

There have been other threads like this when individuals were called out and those got locked. IMO, we all have varying opioins on players and that's the point.

Some folks follow others more than others. That's great--but that doesn't mean we should disrespect the opinions of the other staff because their views do not 100% align with your own views.

Tread lightly and please do not be confrontational or sadly this thread may meet the same fate.

And for the record, it has been proven that I am never wrong and everything I say should be considered a mortal lock.

 

[footballfreek]

FYI -And for the record, it has been proven that I am never wrong and everything I say should be considered a mortal lock.

I'm drafting in an hour. Can I have your phone number to use you as a life-line.

 

[switz]

FYI -There have been other threads like this when individuals were called out and those got locked. IMO, we all have varying opioins on players and that's the point.

It doesn't seem to me anyone was calling out anyone at all...

Some folks follow others more than others. That's great--but that doesn't mean we should disrespect the opinions of the other staff because their views do not 100% align with your own views.Tread lightly and please do not be confrontational or sadly this thread may meet the same fate.

Agreed-in fact the varying views is what makes this place great. IMO it seems as FBGs have gotten more popular they've become a beter news/info source, primarily due to these boards, but at the same time, the rankings have drawn ever closer to the norm. I am not a paying subscriber though, so perhaps as the season nears, the FBG staff is able to be more accurate/different than others.However, I love this site - and I hope my comments about the staf vs. posters was not taken as imflammatory. I just think people should pay attention to posters as well, as many are exceptional FF experts, despite not being staff.

And for the record, it has been proven that I am never wrong and everything I say should be considered a mortal lock.

Well of course - every staff member wishes they had your track record.

 

[Gr00vus]

Mike Herman really seems to know kickers. His week to week kicker rankings and analysis were gold last year - GOLD. Check those out this season as we roll along and see if he keeps it up.

 

[David Yudkin]

It doesn't seem to me anyone was calling out anyone at all...

No one has in this thread, but there have been times in some of the other threads that got them locked or deleted. I don't personally mind people asking questions or having different opinions that they want to express, but sometimes people go over the line. There have been several people that have actually written to Dodds and Bryant INSISTING that I be booted off staff or they would never come back. I'm still here, so that answers that. But people can be pretty attached to their opiions and god forbid if yours doesn't align perfectly with theirs . . .As for posters, I concur that there are non-staff that I value their opinion as much (or even sometimes more than) staff. Guys dialed in to particular teams come to mind, so I will look to quasi-expert opinions from non-staff before staff. Doesn't mean the staff opinions aren't good or are inferior, but if there's a Falcons fan that is all over news in Atlanta, I'm looking at what he has to say first.

 

[Drop]

Mr Yudkin

I am not trying to call anyone out to put them down or anything like that. I am just saying that there is so much information out there for both sides of the coin. Everyone is trying to predict the future. I didn't see anyone named Nostrodamus contributing, so I am just trying to establish who consistently has been able to make predictions and who hasn't, then we can get into the "why" they predicted certain things. Some people are just better at it than others. I want to find those people and pay closer attention to the way they think in comparison to the average run of the mill analyst.

I get the point of having varying opinions, but I still think all of you look to certain coworkers as being a bit more knowledgable in certain areas, or even a bit more naive in some respects. I understand that you guys put in a lot of work, so naturally I would value your opinions just as much if not more than the people who rely on the information year after year. I also understand that it may not be easy for you to say that this guy or that guy is a rookie and doesn't know how to rate WRs or something like that, just like it may be hard to say this guy or that guy just does a better job at predicting sleepers than me every year. Egos get hurt when truth comes out, it's a fact of life. However, you do have to take note of things like this that you observe, if you can share that information great, if not that's cool too.

I will tread lightly and I apologize if I've made anyone feel uneasy on your staff by starting such a discussion, but I want to establish a group of sources that I can trust with a proven track record in regards to the various facets that go into dominating fantasy football and just knowing and understanding the game in general. Everyone is entitled to their opinion around here. I don't deny anyone that right to anyone who is willing to stand behind their opinions. However to inquire about the history of people who sell prediction based information really shouldn't rub anyone the wrong way. It's the golden rule, which supercedes all rules. If I wanted to sell you content about predicting the future, wouldn't you be curious as to if I was any good at it? This stuff is self-explanatory, but I feel a need to clarify it.

Over time trends develop, you guys specialize in looking for trends basically. I assume that you read the things your coworkers put out and I assume you give and take from them. Some more than others. You have to notice when they are right and wrong and when you disagree/agree with them. Is it too much for you to give us that insight? Why hold that back? We can't believe everything that everyone of you writes, because at times it is in conflict. Put all the information out there and we can decide what's what.

I am curious why Dodds did not have his rankings printed in the magazine for specific positions and overall? Is that not his strength? Not enough room? I think his overvalue/undervalue picks were right on. Is he usually right about that kind of stuff or wrong about that kind of stuff? You have so many people doing predictions, that you might as well just have a computer do it randomly if we can't get history on past picks to compare.

Once again I would like to say that I am not "calling anyone out". I don't know you guys, that's why I am asking about past track records and general opinions from those who have relied on the information. I think that the information would be of great interest to a lot of people around here.

 

[switz]

There have been several people that have actually written to Dodds and Bryant INSISTING that I be booted off staff or they would never come back.

Really? Wow that is ridiculous

 

[David Yudkin]

Drop -

Thanks for your sensitive approach to posting. I didn't mean to suggest that you specifically had called anyone out, but sometimes these threads turn into. STAFF GUY X is really great but STAFF GUY Y should be a waterboy.

I'm not trying to avoid answering some of your questions, but I think the best thing to do is follow things over time and form an opinion of the different staff (and board posters). I think you will find that you will latch on to some folks in terms of what they have to say and will hit the ignore button on others.

Personally, there are some staff that I have interacted with more than others, and we bounce ideas off of all the time and engage in titilating conversation. Other staff guys I have not had much contact with and don't get into the whys and why nots with. It doesn't mean I respect their opinions any, only that I don't know them very well.

Speaking only on my behalf, if it comes to message board posting, I generally spell out 87 reasons why I feel the way I do. Many other staff explain things on the message board as well. I do agree that when someone only sees the projections or the rankings and no rationaly behind it, it does get frustrating.

I will say that if you PM or email the staff a question or two, they generally will respond (provided they have the time). So if you felt that STAFF GUY X raned someone way different then everyone else, I'm pretty sure if you contacted him he would explain his reasoning (or maybe point you to a thread with an explanation).

While we like to think we are experts on predicting the future, the fact of the matter is you can't get them all right. I mean, in baseball if you get out 65% of the time you are still a mortal lock first ballot hall of famer.

I remember last year someone emailed me a who should I start question and I suggested that THE LAST GUY you would want to start was whomever because he was hurt and not slated to play. Long story short, the team played him anyway and he had a couple of TDs and 150 yards. Whoops.

I don't really know how to monitor who's views and projections are better than others. many of the players I pimped or avoided did what I said they would. Some didn't. So I said Nate Burleson was a budding Top 10 WR. But I was right on Jordan . . . and Thomas Jones . . . and McGahee . . . and Julius Jones . . . and Kevin Jones . . . and Dunn and maybe most importantly Larry Johnson.

So you get my point. We all will hit on some and miss on others. I don't know how many pages of football info there is on this site but it's in the thousands. Even I can't read everything that gets put out. All I can suggest is to peruse the available resources and see who grabs you and what content interests you. And go from there.

Maybe this helped, maybe it didn't, but have a great season either way.

 

[Drop]

"There have been several people that have actually written to Dodds and Bryant INSISTING that I be booted off staff or they would never come back. "

---

Several? Over football analysis, or some petty message board mod issues?

If football, what articles? link?

I'm just wondering because if people are that passionate about it where they give ultimatums to your boss, I would want to check it out for myself.

This is great insight, that's what this thread is for.

 

[David Yudkin]

I can't mention anyone in specificity, but just recently someone in the media implored the owners to give me the boot because my rankings were SO HEINOUS that he insisted that they be taken down or at the very least have the average staff rankings be recalculated WITHOUT mine included. He mentioned that he often cited the FBG rankings on his show but he probably would not be able to if my rankings were involved.

I was forwarded the email deliniating the ones that were clearly wrong and it was evident that I selected them out of a hat and I had put no thought into them.

I typed up a one page justification ON EACH PLAYER documenting personnel changes, coaching changes, statistical trends, age breakdowns, statistical breakdowns of the coaching staff's track record, per carry and per game breakdowns, prior rankings, etc.

Not surprisingly, I did not hear back from him (although I got an atta boy from Joe).

What can I say, there are a lot of people that need decaf.

 

[The Real Goodfellas]

Drop,

You stated:

"I am curious why Dodds did not have his rankings printed in the magazine for specific positions and overall? Is that not his strength? Not enough room? I think his overvalue/undervalue picks were right on. Is he usually right about that kind of stuff or wrong about that kind of stuff? You have so many people doing predictions, that you might as well just have a computer do it randomly if we can't get history on past picks to compare"

I believe the reason for Dodds not putting his rankings on the mag is because he continually is updating them as the season nears. You can't account for the fact that players get hurt, traded or cut before the season starts and the rankings are intended to be a updated tool for your draft, whenever it may be.

Personally, I like to draw my own conclusions after reading the articles and email alerts/reports. I've found that following your gut and applying VBD principles to your draft will generally yield very good results. I also really enjoyed Dodd's last article "from the gut" and found it to be spot on. I would say every so called expert out there has flubbed on a few players every year. However, they have been right on more picks than not.

Hope this helps.

TRG

 

[Drop]

Does any message board discussion over guy x vs guy y really make a difference to you though?

Some guys are better than other guys at certain things. It's how teams work out in real life. If you guys are uncomfortable about people talking about teammates and comparing them, it kind of comes off a little bit like everyone doesn't truly buyin to what you're doing.

Certain guys are numbers guys and they don't go after trendy sleepers and they don't always know the best football player talent wise because they might rely a little too heavily on numbers in college for instance. Some guys just predict talent and measurables, situation, and they will say that Ronnie Brown will be a better pro than Cadillac Williams. Some guys just watch the games, usually played the game too, and they can see the heart a guy has, they suddenly realize that Cadillac doesn't run like a 215 pound back and makes guys look silly. When guys make the jump from solid player to superstar it really only happens if they have it upstairs and in their chest. Who knows? The numbers guys use sound technique to hit on guys more often that not, good theory guys that considers size, talent, situation/surrounding players, can predict the players most likely to break out. Both types of analysis will allow for players to slip through the cracks. These systems are readily adapted by most good fantasy players. The guy who is a competitor can learn those other systems/techniques, but his additional insight comes from game recognizing game.

Some guys just have that look in their eyes, and they can pick it up before the stats and theory situations make him a candidate for a breakout. People try to predict these things, and kid themselves into being real talent scouts, go out and buy their jersey, enjoy a nice season and now he's their favorite player, then in the playoffs see their top dawg fumble in crunch time and cost them the game. You're sitting their with a goat jersey on now, so does he still have it? Did he ever? How does he come back the next year? A real player will know instantly. A lesser analyst will wonder if Ronnie Brown is in fact going to be the better pro and debate it all summer.

I want to establish who the guys are that make decisions and stand behind them without having to second guess themselves every time 1 little thing changes? Those are the guys who recognize game, all the stats and theory work can be done by anyone. I'm wondering if you have any guys like that for sure? Guys that could make a living betting sports because they are smart enough to handle the numbers, understand and apply the concept of not betting against the house but rather the general public, able to see the competitor in guys like the players do, and strong enough to stand behind his decisions and not let the ups and downs of gambling get to him mentally.

So who is the better pro going to be? They are both good players. Who has it though? Who wants it more? You can only pick 1 and you CAN'T be wrong.....

If you feel pressure it's because you don't have it. If you think that it involves a discussion, you are missing the point and it's a problem that you don't realize and understand it.

Any guys like that on staff or here posting?

 

[David Yudkin]

You can pick and choose yourself how you want your opinions and for what reasons or rationale. I didn't play football. I watch some football, but certainly nowhere near the extent of others.

Yet I get email from people who value my opinion for fantasy leagues involving draft and starting roster questions with THOUSANDS of dollars on the line. And they keep coming back, so I have to assume that they are winning more than they are losing.

If you want a talent evaluator, don't come to me. If you want a fantasy prognosticator, than that's another story. Could I tell you that Caddy is more talented than Benson or Brown. Nope.

But the fantasy universe is different than the real world, and that's why people come here. There's no fantasy catagory for "heart of a lion" or "mind like a commando" and there are many other reasons why things work out like they do and what we should expect from players and frachises.

 

[tommyGunZ]

Does any message board discussion over guy x vs guy y really make a difference to you though?

All the time. Intelligent, passionate discussion/debate between those with opposing views is the most informative format for learning, in my opinion.The discussions on these boards are the lifeblood of this site and make it the most valuable fantasy football tool on the net. Again, in my opinion.

 

[zoonation]

Does any message board discussion over guy x vs guy y really make a difference to you though?Some guys are better than other guys at certain things. It's how teams work out in real life. If you guys are uncomfortable about people talking about teammates and comparing them, it kind of comes off a little bit like everyone doesn't truly buyin to what you're doing. Certain guys are numbers guys and they don't go after trendy sleepers and they don't always know the best football player talent wise because they might rely a little too heavily on numbers in college for instance. Some guys just predict talent and measurables, situation, and they will say that Ronnie Brown will be a better pro than Cadillac Williams. Some guys just watch the games, usually played the game too, and they can see the heart a guy has, they suddenly realize that Cadillac doesn't run like a 215 pound back and makes guys look silly. When guys make the jump from solid player to superstar it really only happens if they have it upstairs and in their chest. Who knows? The numbers guys use sound technique to hit on guys more often that not, good theory guys that considers size, talent, situation/surrounding players, can predict the players most likely to break out. Both types of analysis will allow for players to slip through the cracks. These systems are readily adapted by most good fantasy players. The guy who is a competitor can learn those other systems/techniques, but his additional insight comes from game recognizing game. Some guys just have that look in their eyes, and they can pick it up before the stats and theory situations make him a candidate for a breakout. People try to predict these things, and kid themselves into being real talent scouts, go out and buy their jersey, enjoy a nice season and now he's their favorite player, then in the playoffs see their top dawg fumble in crunch time and cost them the game. You're sitting their with a goat jersey on now, so does he still have it? Did he ever? How does he come back the next year? A real player will know instantly. A lesser analyst will wonder if Ronnie Brown is in fact going to be the better pro and debate it all summer.I want to establish who the guys are that make decisions and stand behind them without having to second guess themselves every time 1 little thing changes? Those are the guys who recognize game, all the stats and theory work can be done by anyone. I'm wondering if you have any guys like that for sure? Guys that could make a living betting sports because they are smart enough to handle the numbers, understand and apply the concept of not betting against the house but rather the general public, able to see the competitor in guys like the players do, and strong enough to stand behind his decisions and not let the ups and downs of gambling get to him mentally. So who is the better pro going to be? They are both good players. Who has it though? Who wants it more? You can only pick 1 and you CAN'T be wrong..... If you feel pressure it's because you don't have it. If you think that it involves a discussion, you are missing the point and it's a problem that you don't realize and understand it. Any guys like that on staff or here posting?

I think it might be time to "drop" the length of your posts.

 

[Drop]

Perfect example: Does Chester Taylor have it?

Will he break out? Some guys reached for him and got laughed at on draft day. I doubt you were laughing if the guy who always dominates took him though. The guy who politely told you that Fitzgerald would for sure be a top 5 wr with double digit tds last year without trying to brag. The guy who gives that little extra value to a guy who doesn't dance after TDs, but hands the ball to the ref. Like Barry use to do, like special players do. Do you have a formula that considers that?

He's in a good situation to be a featured back and has a solid team for a rebuilding division. With solid stat work and theory analysis you can consider him a breakout candidate. Now if only you could see if he was an elite competitor could you be pretty sure of him being an elite back. I think that some people can predict this situation with much greater accuracy than others in a lot of specific cases. This is where the advantage comes in amongst fantasy players. Will he make that jump? It's a yes or no question. Variables are understood, freak injuries happen.

Everyone has tiers of players, whoever always takes the diamond in the rough from those tiers wins.

 

[David Yudkin]

As far as Chester Taylor goes, IMO he's an average back playing behind some exceptional blockers. As I see it, that will translates into above average production, but coupled with a high workload will equate to Top 10 running back numbers. And that puts me in the minority in terms of expected outcomes.

 

[Drop]

I think it might be time to "drop" the length of your posts.

This is how message boards work when people use them for indepth discussions. It's rare to find threads like this, but don't kid yourself into thinking that message boards were intended for zingers and one-liners to put other people down. ie - the post you just made.If the posts are too long for you, try to read a little bit at a time and come back after taking a break. Some people don't have the attention span and concentration necessary for intelligent discussion, it's not a big deal. I know it sounds like I'm putting you down, but I'm really just trying to give you a tip because I'm not going to assume that you are that rude. Please join in the discussion if you have anything to add. Hilarious use of my name in your post though, I have never seen that before. Clever.

 

[Drop]

Will he develop with McKinnie like he did with Jones? McKinnie is a guy on the verge of being a superstar. Does he have it in him though?

 

[Drop]

With Chester Taylor, you can put him in a certain tier. With good stat/theory work you will probably have the right tier. Now, in your draft you have to judge where others rate him and if on top of that you also have rated as the highest in the tier, you have to know where to take him. You have to know when to reach. So if you want to guess on when people are going to take him and also guess on what he's actually going to do, you better be right on if he really has it upstairs to breakout or not. It's a crapshoot otherwise. Against elite fantasy players, you're not shooting craps, you're playing high stakes no limit texas hold em. You gotta know the numbers, and know the players against you, and you gotta know who isn't scared to be great.

 

[The Real Goodfellas]

With Chester Taylor, you can put him in a certain tier. With good stat/theory work you will probably have the right tier. Now, in your draft you have to judge where others rate him and if on top of that you also have rated as the highest in the tier, you have to know where to take him. You have to know when to reach. So if you want to guess on when people are going to take him and also guess on what he's actually going to do, you better be right on if he really has it upstairs to breakout or not. It's a crapshoot otherwise. Against elite fantasy players, you're not shooting craps, you're playing high stakes no limit texas hold em. You gotta know the numbers, and know the players against you, and you gotta know who isn't scared to be great.

I guess the bottom line, like I said before is your "gut" What does your gut tell you? Balls? Do you have them and are you willing to go against the grain to prove it? I've done both and have done very well. Sometimes you can't rely on stats but you have to rely on heart, smarts and desire. Those are intangibles and cannot be measured, except by people who make it a point to "notice" those things.There are some Footballguys that do that and there are some that don't like anything but numbers and proof. Sometimes Opportunity and Luck will put a player where he needs to be and Talent and desire will make him stay there and succeed.Tom Brady is a good example. Terrell Davis is another. How about Wayne Chrebet? All heart.I like the way you're headed. You are trying to stir up the board to think a little and God knows we can do with a little more of that around here... LOLTRG

 

[maddawg2020]

Dont know if anyone will actually read this post or not but for what its worth here's my two cents....

I obviously respect Joe and Dodds. I go back to the days of cheatsheets.net. Although I like their stuff I've been doing this long enough that my projections are always just as accurate as their's but they've got other insightful tools and articles that help me out a lot throughout the year.

I also have found the stuff written by Chris Smith and Jason Wood to be insightful. I followed Chris Smith from his days on tuffsports.com. In fact, I wrote a few articles for Smith's website back in 1999.

So there you have it... I like most of the FBG's but I especially like:

Bryant

Dodds

Wood

Smith

This isn't a knock on any other guys I just happen to like them most. nothing personal against anyone else. I'm sure other guys have their favorites. these are mine.

....my 2cents....

 

[kutta]

I think it might be time to "drop" the length of your posts.

This is how message boards work when people use them for indepth discussions. It's rare to find threads like this, but don't kid yourself into thinking that message boards were intended for zingers and one-liners to put other people down. ie - the post you just made.If the posts are too long for you, try to read a little bit at a time and come back after taking a break. Some people don't have the attention span and concentration necessary for intelligent discussion, it's not a big deal. I know it sounds like I'm putting you down, but I'm really just trying to give you a tip because I'm not going to assume that you are that rude. Please join in the discussion if you have anything to add. Hilarious use of my name in your post though, I have never seen that before. Clever.

Passive Aggressive Behavior: Sometimes a method of dealing with stress or frustration, it results in the person attacking other people in subtle, indirect, and seemingly passive ways.

 

[Drop]

maddawg2020,

great post. this is exactly what this thread is for.

kutta,

great post. this is exactly what this thread is for. get your dictionary out and define sarcasm. try not to use the word itself in the definition though.

What are you adding to the thread? Of course people will be frustrated if you are posting nonsense. Can you just delete your post so people don't have to read through it for actual information? I'll delete this one afterwards.

 

[toxic]

I'll only speak to the positive--I've always liked Yudkin's analysis on RBs. Of course, I am probably biased by the fact that he and I were on the same side of the Holmes-Johnson debate last year. A debate that the good guys won, I might add...

 

[incubus0]

If everyone is done stroking each other, can we get an answer to the original question?

Who has the best track record in individual areas, and what are their records?

It's a valid question, and one that should be answered. I seem to remember a site from a while ago that would rank the accuracy of each sites cheat sheets the following week, does anyone still do that?

 

[Bad_Mo]

I don't work for FBGs, but I'm pretty spot on with about 92.7% of my predictions.

Have won multiple titles in different size (and format) leagues.

I've hit on many guys like SSmith last year, TO when he had his breakout year w/ SF, Boldin his rookie year (yes, actually drafted him too), etc.

I've got some inside sources that are very reliable.

Enough about me already...............

 

[Mark Wimer]

Mr Wimer

I appreciate the response, but I'd really like it if you joined the discussion. You have worked with these other guys, and can probably shed some light on who you may think is the best at certain things. I'm not saying that you have to put people down or anything, and if they can't handle the criticism that's a bigger problem in itself. You have to be able to stand behind your work, or how can you expect to have people pay for it?

With all the sources of information out there, what sets footballguys apart? What steps do you guys take to ensure that you just aren't carrying dead weight along year to year? Do people get fired for not being able to analyze things properly? There has to be a couple guys that are strong in certain areas and weak in others, what are your opinions on those people? That's all I'm asking, so when I do use the search feature to find certain things, I have some indications on who has real proven credibility over time. There will be multiple sides to most issues discussed here, so who has the proven past of being right becomes a big help. Who are the playmakers so to speak. The guys who go out on a limb, and then get to say, I told you so.

If you say S Jax is 31st, I am not saying you are right or wrong. I am saying that I am interested in why you would make such an unpopular projection. You may be a cut above the rest, so I have to find out if you have a proven track record or if you tend to make a few off base predictions based on information that you overvalue that others don't. I will read your articles, but please feel free to further this discussion in other facets if you have the time. Some people have a real knack for projections, and others just get projections based on other sources averages. Do you know who those people are? Would you mind sharing?

In brief: when I analyzed Jackson's performance last year (7 games with 100+ yards combined, only 2 games over 100 yards rushing), coupled with the fact that St. Louis did nothing substantive during free agency/draft to address their very average OL -- 4.0 yards per carry - which our FBG Chris Smith, who I respect deeply especially when it comes to OL analysis has ranked as the 17th best line in the NFL and whose opinion I knew going into the mag rankings phase of pre-season -- adding on the fact that he posted two awful games late in the season (11 vs. Ari and 13 vs. Was) (game logs here) long after he was fully acclimated to the then-offensive system - I decided that the situation in St. Louis regarding offensive personnel involved in the running game were average at best, in aggregate. Average, not top 10.Then, add in the fact of a new offensive system, a rather sub-par reputation for Jackson as an inside/goal line runner - as our FBG Bob Magaw pointed out recently and was quoted in yesterday's breaking email update from Joe Bryant about the Stephen Davis signing in St Louis -

"Rams observers and those that follow them more closely than the casual fan would know that Jackson does not have a rep as a powerhouse inside runner. He is a good, well rounded young RB that can block & catch but he is not known as a stellar goal line rusher. In my opinion, those that think it is absurd and preposterous to think that Davis might take some TDs away from Jackson could be in for a rude awakening. Don't get me wrong, I'm not advising to hit the panic button if you are a Jackson owner, but if they sign Davis, I don't like Jackson as much (in redraft) as before." -- FBG Bob Magaw

So, we have here before us an average rushing offense with a young and developing RB not noted for powerful inside/goal-line running in a new system that emphasizes a power running game. Not exactly the best fit in the world. So, what do the Rams do as training camp progresses and the new offense is being installed? They start looking for a power-running, veteran back-up to Jackson. Now they have signed one in Davis as of 9/1/06.

I was an bigtime outlier in opinion back in May when we wrote the magazine and I had Jackson at #31 overall and #16 among RBs. Now, let's see how "outlier" that appears with this latest news about Davis on the cusp of regular season. BTW, I have Jackson at #16 among RBs and #28 overall as a result of this Davis signing (9/2/06), and have never ranked Jackson higher than #13 throughout the pre-season.

MW

 

[Borat]

If everyone is done stroking each other, can we get an answer to the original question?Who has the best track record in individual areas, and what are their records?It's a valid question, and one that should be answered. I seem to remember a site from a while ago that would rank the accuracy of each sites cheat sheets the following week, does anyone still do that?

Can someone please step up to the plate and answer these questions? Or is this information not readily available?

 

[Solidsteel Rats]

Such long replies waste of time...simple answer is.....ME!!!

 

[Lambert]

If everyone is done stroking each other, can we get an answer to the original question?Who has the best track record in individual areas, and what are their records?It's a valid question, and one that should be answered. I seem to remember a site from a while ago that would rank the accuracy of each sites cheat sheets the following week, does anyone still do that?

I can't speak for anyone else, but I'm also interested in discussion of the track record of the various experts. I'm not in the slightest interested in name calling or worthless and inflammatory personal attacks, e.g. "Expert X is a loser" and stupid trash talk like that. However, it would be great to hear views (especially if anyone has done research into it) which might tell me something along the lines of ...FBG Expert A may not be the best in terms of ranking the top tier players, but is great at sniffing out sleepers.ORFBG Expert B has a great track record with his WR rankings.ORFBG Expert C has an outstanding record of predicting 1st round busts.OR even something more general, such as:While they all are intelligent valuable contributors, historically, FBG Experts D and E have statistically been more on target with their overall rankings over the past three years, while F, G, and H have been a little less so.

 

[Mark Wimer]

I'll also contribute that the strength of Footballguys.com is that Joe and David have assembled so many quality staff members that work together and communicate regularly. We all do independent rankings and all have some outlier opinions on one player or another, but as the above post clearly indicates, my ranking of Jackson was influenced by Chris Smith's outstanding work ranking offensive lines/offseason movement among the various NFL offensive lines, as just one example. He's a top notch NFL commentator, as is the other staff guy in this thread, David Yudkin.

 

[Borat]

If everyone is done stroking each other, can we get an answer to the original question?Who has the best track record in individual areas, and what are their records?It's a valid question, and one that should be answered. I seem to remember a site from a while ago that would rank the accuracy of each sites cheat sheets the following week, does anyone still do that?

I can't speak for anyone else, but I'm also interested in discussion of the track record of the various experts. I'm not in the slightest interested in name calling or worthless and inflammatory personal attacks, e.g. "Expert X is a loser" and stupid trash talk like that. However, it would be great to hear views (especially if anyone has done research into it) which might tell me something along the lines of ...FBG Expert A may not be the best in terms of ranking the top tier players, but is great at sniffing out sleepers.ORFBG Expert B has a great track record with his WR rankings.ORFBG Expert C has an outstanding record of predicting 1st round busts.OR even something more general, such as:While they all are intelligent valuable contributors, historically, FBG Experts D and E have statistically been more on target with their overall rankings over the past three years, while F, G, and H have been a little less so.

I agree completely. I don't think there's anything wrong with being held accountable for your historical record. No one is interested in name calling or even bragging rights here. We're just looking for the guy(s) who has proven to be the most reliable over time.

 

[Lambert]

bump ... anyone have any more thoughts on the subject?

 

[switz]

In brief: when I analyzed Jackson's performance last year (7 games with 100+ yards combined, only 2 games over 100 yards rushing), coupled with the fact that St. Louis did nothing substantive during free agency/draft to address their very average OL -- 4.0 yards per carry - which our FBG Chris Smith, who I respect deeply especially when it comes to OL analysis has ranked as the 17th best line in the NFL and whose opinion I knew going into the mag rankings phase of pre-season -- adding on the fact that he posted two awful games late in the season (11 vs. Ari and 13 vs. Was) (game logs here) long after he was fully acclimated to the then-offensive system - I decided that the situation in St. Louis regarding offensive personnel involved in the running game were average at best, in aggregate. Average, not top 10.

Then, add in the fact of a new offensive system, a rather sub-par reputation for Jackson as an inside/goal line runner - as our FBG Bob Magaw pointed out recently and was quoted in yesterday's breaking email update from Joe Bryant about the Stephen Davis signing in St Louis -

"Rams observers and those that follow them more closely than the casual fan would know that Jackson does not have a rep as a powerhouse inside runner. He is a good, well rounded young RB that can block & catch but he is not known as a stellar goal line rusher. In my opinion, those that think it is absurd and preposterous to think that Davis might take some TDs away from Jackson could be in for a rude awakening. Don't get me wrong, I'm not advising to hit the panic button if you are a Jackson owner, but if they sign Davis, I don't like Jackson as much (in redraft) as before." -- FBG Bob Magaw

So, we have here before us an average rushing offense with a young and developing RB not noted for powerful inside/goal-line running in a new system that emphasizes a power running game. Not exactly the best fit in the world. So, what do the Rams do as training camp progresses and the new offense is being installed? They start looking for a power-running, veteran back-up to Jackson. Now they have signed one in Davis as of 9/1/06.

I was an bigtime outlier in opinion back in May when we wrote the magazine and I had Jackson at #31 overall and #16 among RBs. Now, let's see how "outlier" that appears with this latest news about Davis on the cusp of regular season. BTW, I have Jackson at #16 among RBs and #28 overall as a result of this Davis signing (9/2/06), and have never ranked Jackson higher than #13 throughout the pre-season.

MW

Awesome analysis, which I agree with 100%. All these points were also part of my reasoning when I passed on SJAX in my initial dynasty draft. Alot thought he should be in contention for the 4-6 picks. Not me. And I think this year will bear it out.

 

[fsufan]

Of all the experts that work for footballguys.com who seems to be the best at figuring out situations and is right more often than not when going against the grain?Who ranks the players the best upon going back and looking at predictions and projections? Does anyone seem to know certain positions, but not others when doing rankings? Who is just way off and overvalues trendy picks and sleepers, every year?I'm sure that some of you have been here long enough and are smart enough to hold these experts accountable, so what trends have you seen?Does the guy who rated Steven Jackson #31 overall in the magazine know what he is taking about?

why is someone an EXPERT just because they work for or own a fantasy football site.I get for info from this MB than from FBG site.