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Exploit and Avoid Week 4 (1 Viewer)

lakerstan

Footballguy
Amon St Brown is a WR1 right now. 12-12-9 target totals, he’s their No 1 weapon and I can’t wait to see him paired with Jameson Williams when he returns. Josh Reynolds had 10 targets in the last game and they were behind. This week will be a shootout and Chark might see 4-6 targets but Reynolds right now could be the steal for No 2 in terms of targets this week.

Might not play this week. Chark, Reynolds, and Hockenson also hurt. Chark was limited today, Josh was out but they’re optimistic, looking bleak for D’Andre T.J. and Amon-Ra.
OUT from everything I saw last 24 hours
Thanks for the heads up on this one. I like Detroit a little less tomorrow
Chark out now too.
 

Ministry of Pain

Footballguy
Seattle at Detroit (-6) (50) started at -1

Seattle is the worst ranked defense in the NFL right now, Detroit is the 3rd worst overall. The Lions give up around 265-270 yds passing and almost 2 TD per week. Seattle, not a lot better at 240 yards surrendered weekly. Both teams have issues against the run as well. Seahawks are giving up 155 and 1.3 TD on the ground, Detroit 140 and 2.3 TD allowed weekly.

-52% of all drives started vs Seattle end with a score, Detroit is 35% same stat.
-Another ugly Seattle stat is almost 8 yds per attempt they allow on defense, think about that.

QB: Geno had 320 yds last week, 2 TD and a Pick. Goff has risen steadily in yds passing each week but his TDs are all over the place, did toss 4 of them in Week 2.

RB: Penny is a good bet for Seattle, he’s been pretty quiet most of the year but expect him to bust a couple longer runs and have over 100 yds this weekend. Walker has not been given a steady diet of touches yet so we don’t know what he can do. I expect more of him in the 2nd half of the season when Seattle is 2-6.

WR: Pick one, any one, haha. Metcalf had 5/64/TD last week after a miserable start. Those are pedestrian numbers for him but it offers hope this week he can have a splash game. Lockett was 9/76 last week, again one of his biggest weeks of the young season. He tends to go off when you least expect it.

Amon St Brown is a WR1 right now. 12-12-9 target totals, he’s their No 1 weapon and I can’t wait to see him paired with Jameson Williams when he returns. Josh Reynolds had 10 targets in the last game and they were behind. This week will be a shootout and Chark might see 4-6 targets but Reynolds right now could be the steal for No 2 in terms of targets this week.

Final Score: Detroit 31…Seattle 24
This was written last Mon/Tue and with Detroit down so many injuries, this game has changed a lot and even the line has moved significantly down

With St Brown and Swift OUT, Chark OUT, this is going to be a lot harder for the Lions and I think Seattle might steal this game now.

I absolutely love Penny today

I'm doing a reverse on this one

Final Score: Seattle 24...Detroit 21, take the points and the under now.
 

SeniorVBDStudent

Footballguy
NE at GB (-10.5) (40)

-Mac Jones being out and Bobby Hoyer starting will change a lot of what would have been a pretty fun game but the loss of Jones is going to cripple the offense IMHO.

QB: Aaron Rodgers is facing a pass defense that gives up 200/2TD a week, he’ll test them and work the secondary in the red zone.

WR: Doubs seems to be the lead WR right now alongside Lazard, those are the safest bets. The Patriots are dealing with starting QB gone so I would temper enthusiasm with any of the WRs until we see who Hoyer targets frequently. I bet he might find the Tight Ends that have been mostly absent.

RB: 4 RBs of note. Damien harris might have appeared to lose ground to Rhamondre but this situation is going to roll back and forth, quite frankly with no QB threat, most defenses are going to be looking to shut them down so unless the Patriots can run block exceptionally well, I don’t think they will move the football much.

Jones and Dillon saw one of the best defenses in the NFL last week, don’t get too upset. The Patriots are close to 5 yds a carry allowed on rush defense, that’s encouraging. I would not hesitate to start both of them this week. Packers only need 2 TDs to win this game, 3 will be more than enough.

Neither team seems to yield a lot of FF points thus far to opposing RBs, still feel the combo of the Packers will prevail at Lambeau.

Final Score: Packers 24…Patriots 12
All I can do as a Pats fan is shake my head.

And enter a milly maker with a Hoyer/Agholor/Henry stack brought back with Tonyan.

Virtually no chance it happens but if it does my uniqueness of off the charts.
 

Ministry of Pain

Footballguy
CHI at NYG (-3) (39)

-At first glance you see a low scoring prediction but is that really what we have here? The Bears game totaled 43 last week with Houston on the field, certainly Barkley and Daniel Jones offer more of a match than last week.

-The Bears have faced Trey Lance, Aaron Rodgers and Davis from Houston, one of those three is a HoF QB and they lost that game. Daniel Jones has many starts under his belt at this point but he’s certainly beatable. These defenses are not massively different except the Bears rarely force a turnover, no interceptions on the season.

QB: Fields might have a better day than Jones. Neither should be relied on for starting in redrafts. If you’re rebuilding and want to get closer to a higher 1st Rd pick in Dynasty, be my guest.

RB: Herbert has seized control, can he keep it rolling this week vs New York or are you chasing points? Only way to know is to start him, he’s Top 12 most places under the assumption Monty misses time especially this coming Sunday.

Saquon is a weekly must start as long as he is healthy and taking the field. He’s dangerous and is starting to get his sea legs under him. 125 total yds, TD, 4 catches, most will run to the bank with that every week.

WR: Shepard is gone for the year and that means opportunity and targets to go around. I would assume this is going to feel like a WRBBC for a week or two until we have it all figured out.

Still cannot trust a Bears WR or TE right now.

Final Score: NY Giants 21…Chicago 17
Starting to like the Bears more in this one. Could Chicago start 3-1 with very little on offense to date?
 

Team Smokin'

Footballguy
CHI at NYG (-3) (39)

-At first glance you see a low scoring prediction but is that really what we have here? The Bears game totaled 43 last week with Houston on the field, certainly Barkley and Daniel Jones offer more of a match than last week.

-The Bears have faced Trey Lance, Aaron Rodgers and Davis from Houston, one of those three is a HoF QB and they lost that game. Daniel Jones has many starts under his belt at this point but he’s certainly beatable. These defenses are not massively different except the Bears rarely force a turnover, no interceptions on the season.

QB: Fields might have a better day than Jones. Neither should be relied on for starting in redrafts. If you’re rebuilding and want to get closer to a higher 1st Rd pick in Dynasty, be my guest.

RB: Herbert has seized control, can he keep it rolling this week vs New York or are you chasing points? Only way to know is to start him, he’s Top 12 most places under the assumption Monty misses time especially this coming Sunday.

Saquon is a weekly must start as long as he is healthy and taking the field. He’s dangerous and is starting to get his sea legs under him. 125 total yds, TD, 4 catches, most will run to the bank with that every week.

WR: Shepard is gone for the year and that means opportunity and targets to go around. I would assume this is going to feel like a WRBBC for a week or two until we have it all figured out.

Still cannot trust a Bears WR or TE right now.

Final Score: NY Giants 21…Chicago 17
Starting to like the Bears more in this one. Could Chicago start 3-1 with very little on offense to date?
Both RB's as well, MoP?

Then my debate is James Robinson or AJ Dillon in the Flex - got em both ranked almost identical in a .5 ppr. Weather in PHI prolly favors the RB's and Hurts rushing.
 

Ministry of Pain

Footballguy
CHI at NYG (-3) (39)

-At first glance you see a low scoring prediction but is that really what we have here? The Bears game totaled 43 last week with Houston on the field, certainly Barkley and Daniel Jones offer more of a match than last week.

-The Bears have faced Trey Lance, Aaron Rodgers and Davis from Houston, one of those three is a HoF QB and they lost that game. Daniel Jones has many starts under his belt at this point but he’s certainly beatable. These defenses are not massively different except the Bears rarely force a turnover, no interceptions on the season.

QB: Fields might have a better day than Jones. Neither should be relied on for starting in redrafts. If you’re rebuilding and want to get closer to a higher 1st Rd pick in Dynasty, be my guest.

RB: Herbert has seized control, can he keep it rolling this week vs New York or are you chasing points? Only way to know is to start him, he’s Top 12 most places under the assumption Monty misses time especially this coming Sunday.

Saquon is a weekly must start as long as he is healthy and taking the field. He’s dangerous and is starting to get his sea legs under him. 125 total yds, TD, 4 catches, most will run to the bank with that every week.

WR: Shepard is gone for the year and that means opportunity and targets to go around. I would assume this is going to feel like a WRBBC for a week or two until we have it all figured out.

Still cannot trust a Bears WR or TE right now.

Final Score: NY Giants 21…Chicago 17
Starting to like the Bears more in this one. Could Chicago start 3-1 with very little on offense to date?
Both RB's as well, MoP?

Then my debate is James Robinson or AJ Dillon in the Flex - got em both ranked almost identical in a .5 ppr. Weather in PHI prolly favors the RB's and Hurts rushing.
Both as in Herbert and Saquon? Yes I like them both
 

Chaka

Footballguy
Only bumping this so folks know I am traveling much of this week and won't be able to do what I normally enjoy.

-I will be back Sunday Morning in time for the games. I will likely roll into @Chaka thread if he doesn't mind and I'll try and help where I can and reply to some of the folks I have a stronger opinion on.

Cheers Everybody
Please, join us. The more the merrier. Besides, you have a bigger profile around here so if the advice is bad they'll be more likely to blame you.
 

Team Smokin'

Footballguy
Minnesota at New Orleans (+2.5) (44)

-Winston has 2 TDs and 5 Int the last 2 games, he turns the ball over too often including 2 fumbles in the last game but were fortunately recovered or he would have even more gifts to the opposition. Vikings give up the 4th most passing yards but somehow just 2 TDs on the season.

Cousins has a ceiling, even when he should be in line for monster games it simply does not go that way. 24/41 260/2TD, that is the nice stat line you get from Kirk Cousins when he does have a decent game. His better games are Mid 20s for point production but he rarely gives you that Top 5 performance or at least has not to this point. Some Winston turnovers however, might give him some short fields and a few easier scores. Also should be noted the Saints have a pretty good pass defense but don’t produce a lot of turnovers, NO Interceptions thus far.

-Olave had another big game, 14/220 his last 2 weeks combined on B2B 13 target games, a more accurate QB and he might have even bigger production. Thomas and Landry pale in comparison to what Olave brings to the table right now. Thomas and Landry are missing practice right now to boot.

Justin Jefferson 3/14 last week? Osborn was the top WR? That cannot happen often and Minnesota wins football games. I would assume it was a fluke. 9-6-3 his catch totals the first 3 weeks. We had not seen much at all from Thielen and Osborn the first couple weeks of the season.

Cook had one of his best rushing days thus far and also banged up his shoulder, Day 2 Day right now. If Mattison is somehow available in your league, maybe you might want to pick him up in case he has to carry more of the load this week.

Kamara might have still been injured last week, didn’t make much noise. He hasn’t done a lot of anything to this point in 2022, his stock must be a potential buy low but what if the Saints Offense simply does not materialize?

Final Score: Minnesota 24…New Orleans 20
As crazy as it sounds I just proposed a trade offer involving both Kamara and Olave.

My team has Kamara and I just picked up Pickens, the other team has Pierce and Olave and they just picked up Pickett.

Me trading Kamara and Pickens for Pierce and Olave. I hit the trade offer button. I think Pierce might even be a notch better than Kamara for the ROS or at least similar. Olave > Pickens and I like Pickens to do better with Pickett.

MoP what da think?
 

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