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1 Frank Gore SF 149 109 42.25%Facing Eight in the BoxKhaled Elsayed | May 8, 2013
Sometimes you get an idea in your head. Whether it be commentators telling you something or whether it’s you looking to make some logical assumptions, ideas and theories stick.
On Tuesday, the PFF twitter feed was inundated with messages telling us that the Chiefs’ Jamaal Charles (who had himself a very good year) constantly faced eight men in the box. Now I’ll be honest in that I watched a fair few Chiefs games and did differing types of analysis on them, but it didn’t strike me as right that Charles faced any more than the league average.
So I decided to look at what the numbers said, and while it started off as more of a rebuttal to some criticism, it developed into an interesting look at which players faced the most defenders in the box.
With that in mind, I bring to you what I think is the first real look at players facing eight or more men in the box to see which players truly had to overcome it.
[SIZE=small]The 49er Way[/SIZE]
If you’ve missed our tweeting on it, there really was only one contender to this crown and his name was Frank Gore. An astonishing 42.25% of his runs saw him face at least eight defenders in the box, although we’ll explain why some of this isn’t down to the schemes and offensive formations used by the 49ers.
But for now here’s the entire list of rushers with at least 100 designed carries. The league average came out at 23.25%. Stay tuned because tomorrow we’re going to add some more data to the mix when we look at how the use of offensive personnel impacts this:
https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2013/05/08/facing-eight-in-the-box/
Share by Email2 Shonn Greene NYJ 168 108 39.13%
3 Adrian Peterson MIN 228 120 34.48%
4 Bilal Powell NYJ 74 36 32.73%
5 DeMarco Murray DAL 111 50 31.06%
6 Ryan Mathews SD 136 48 26.09%
7 Vick Ballard IND 156 55 26.07%
8 Mark Ingram NO 116 40 25.64%
9 Isaac Redman PIT 82 28 25.45%
10 Michael Turner ATL 166 56 25.23%
11 Donald Brown IND 81 27 25.00%
12 Jonathan Dwyer PIT 117 39 25.00%
13 Rashad Jennings JAX 76 25 24.75%
14 Michael Bush CHI 86 28 24.56%
15 Arian Foster HST 267 84 23.93%
16 Steven Jackson SL 197 61 23.64%
---------------league average--------------------------------
17 Stevan Ridley NE 226 64 22.07%
18 DeAngelo WilliamCAR 136 37 21.39%
19 Marshawn Lynch SEA 248 67 21.27%
20 BenJGreen-Ellis CIN 220 58 20.86%
21 Alfred Morris WAS 267 68 20.30%
22 Ahmad Bradshaw NYG 177 44 19.91%
23 Felix Jones DAL 89 22 19.82%
24 Stephens-HowlingARZ 90 20 18.18%
25 Trent RichardsonCLE 219 48 17.98%
26 Ray Rice BAL 215 42 16.34%
27 Doug Martin TB 267 52 16.30%
28 Chris D. JohnsonTEN 233 43 15.58%
29 Darren McFadden OAK 183 33 15.28%
30 Bernard Pierce BAL 92 16 14.81%
31 Fred Jackson BUF 98 17 14.78%
32 Matt Forte CHI 212 36 14.52%
33 Alex Green GB 116 19 14.07%
34 Reggie Bush MIA 196 31 13.66%
35 Willis McGahee DEN 146 21 12.57%
36 Pierre Thomas NO 92 13 12.38%
37 Jamaal Charles KC 252 33 11.58%
38 C.J. Spiller BUF 184 23 11.11%
39 Knowshon Moreno DEN 124 14 10.14%
40 LeSean McCoy PHI 180 20 10.00%
41 Bryce Brown PHI 105 10 8.70%
42 Mikel Leshoure DET 202 13 6.05%
I found this to be pretty interesting. In the follow up articles Khaled talks about the formations teams run and how that leads to their RB facing 8 in the box more often than others.
1 Frank Gore SF 258 138 53.49%Facing Eight in the Box: With One WideoutKhaled Elsayed | May 9, 2013
In case you missed it, yesterday we brought you some looks at which running backs were facing the most stacked boxes. The results were hardly surprising (to us), as Frank Gore led the way, with Adrian Peterson in third sandwiched between a couple of Jets running backs.
Now while a lot can be inferred from which backs (and teams) are contending with the highest percentage of eight men in the box, you need to delve a bit deeper to understand why it is happening.
Take the 49ers and Frank Gore. When he rushed the ball, 42.25% of the time he faced eight men in the box. However, the 49ers invited this on themselves because on 53.49% of the time he rushed the ball they lined up with one or zero receivers split out (this refers to not how many receivers were on the field, but classes a tight end split out wide or in the slot, as “split out” because logically a defensive player will follow them).
So today we’re going to bring you even more data that sets about evening things up. We’re going to start by showing you the numbers when you simply look at the single- or zero-receiver split out sets, and then follow that up by looking at when they faced two receivers split out.
[SIZE=small]The League Average [/SIZE]
To start off, it should be noted that on average NFL teams rush the ball with a single (or fewer) receiver sets on 21.74% of their rushes. Now you might think that this would be heavily skewed by short yardage (3 yards or less needed for a first down or touchdown), but the reality is that only 17.62% of these short yardage runs featured one or fewer offensive players split out as a wide receiver, though defenses were more likely (26.54% of the time) to stack the box regardless of how many guys were split out wide.
As mentioned, Frank Gore ran from a single (or zero) split out receiver set 53.49% of the time, which was comfortably the highest in the league. Shonn Greene was second and Adrian Peterson was third. The full table can be seen below.
https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2013/05/09/facing-eight-in-the-box-with-on-wideouts/
2 Shonn Greene NYJ 276 122 44.20%
3 Adrian Peterson MIN 348 131 37.64%
4 Donald Brown IND 108 38 35.19%
5 Bilal Powell NYJ 110 38 34.55%
6 DeMarco Murray DAL 161 54 33.54%
7 Mark Ingram NO 156 51 32.69%
8 Felix Jones DAL 111 35 31.53%
9 Isaac Redman PIT 110 34 30.91%
10 Michael Bush CHI 114 35 30.70%
11 Jonathan Dwyer PIT 156 47 30.13%
12 Vick Ballard IND 211 58 27.49%
13 Ryan Mathews SD 184 50 27.17%
14 Rashad Jennings JAX 101 27 26.73%
------------------league average----------------------
15 Marshawn Lynch SEA 315 62 19.68%
16 Ahmad Bradshaw NYG 221 43 19.46%
17 Michael Turner ATL 222 43 19.37%
18 Steven Jackson SL 258 47 18.22%
19 Stephens-HowlingARZ 110 20 18.18%
20 DeAngelo WilliamCAR 173 31 17.92%
21 Arian Foster HST 351 60 17.09%
22 Doug Martin TB 319 54 16.93%
23 BenJGreen-Ellis CIN 278 46 16.55%
24 Stevan Ridley NE 290 45 15.52%
25 Trent RichardsonCLE 267 40 14.98%
26 Matt Forte CHI 248 37 14.92%
27 Alex Green GB 135 20 14.81%
28 Chris D. JohnsonTEN 276 38 13.77%
29 Fred Jackson BUF 115 15 13.04%
30 Alfred Morris WAS 335 42 12.54%
31 Darren McFadden OAK 216 27 12.50%
32 Ray Rice BAL 257 28 10.89%
33 C.J. Spiller BUF 207 22 10.63%
34 Bernard Pierce BAL 108 11 10.19%
35 Reggie Bush MIA 227 21 9.25%
36 Jamaal Charles KC 285 25 8.77%
37 Knowshon Moreno DEN 138 11 7.97%
38 Pierre Thomas NO 105 8 7.62%
39 LeSean McCoy PHI 200 12 6.00%
40 Willis McGahee DEN 167 10 5.99%
41 Bryce Brown PHI 115 2 1.74%
42 Mikel Leshoure DET 215 1 0.47%
1 BUF 130 31 23.85%Facing 8 in the Box: With 2 or More WideoutsKhaled Elsayed | May 9, 2013
Earlier today, to add some context to which running backs were facing the most stacked boxes, we looked at which teams were doing so with a single receiver split out.
That was something of a starter and what we’re about to do now is more of a main course in adding context to the piece we released yesterday. Because now we’re going to look at which rushers had to face eight men (or more) in the box when their offense lined up with two or more receivers split away from the formation.
Logically, that is the real determining test. When defenses are adjusting to just one receiver split out wide, it gives them an extra defender to put in the box. When there are two then it becomes about whether a safety comes into the box to be the extra and form an eight-man front.
So let’s start by seeing which defenses used the most stacked boxes.
[SIZE=small]Bears and Bills[/SIZE]
At one end of the spectrum stands a team, the Buffalo Bills, that showed eight men in the box against run plays with two-plus split receivers a league-high 23.85% of the time. At the other end, the Chicago Bears responded the same way on just 5.19% of runs. That gives you an idea of how aggressive both teams were in shutting down the opposing run game, or, if you like, how confident they were in their front seven handling business.
Here’s the full list:
https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2013/05/09/facing-eight-in-the-box-with-two-or-more-wideouts/
2 NE 148 33 22.30%
3 CAR 151 27 17.88%
4 ATL 145 25 17.24%
5 HST 199 32 16.08%
6 BLT 261 41 15.71%
7 GB 126 19 15.08%
8 SL 148 21 14.19%
9 SEA 141 20 14.18%
10 OAK 170 24 14.12%
11 DET 157 22 14.01%
12 PHI 180 25 13.89%
13 IND 189 25 13.23%
14 NYG 182 24 13.19%
15 WAS 186 24 12.90%
------------league average------------
16 DEN 135 17 12.59%
17 SF 144 18 12.50%
18 MIA 194 23 11.86%
19 NYJ 211 25 11.85%
20 PIT 164 19 11.59%
21 CLV 152 17 11.18%
22 JAX 199 22 11.06%
23 SD 154 17 11.04%
24 MIN 155 17 10.97%
25 DAL 176 19 10.80%
26 ARZ 193 20 10.36%
27 TEN 156 14 8.97%
28 KC 234 20 8.55%
29 NO 178 15 8.43%
30 CIN 167 13 7.78%
31 TB 155 9 5.81%
32 CHI 154 8 5.19%
1 DeAngelo WilliamCAR 36 12 25.00%
2 Stevan Ridley NE 85 28 24.78%
3 Arian Foster HST 149 42 21.99%
4 Vick Ballard IND 54 13 19.40%
5 Alex Green GB 27 6 18.18%
6 Frank Gore SF 65 14 17.72%
7 Donald Brown IND 22 4 15.38%
8 Alfred Morris WAS 193 34 14.98%
9 Steven Jackson SL 105 18 14.63%
10 Ray Rice BAL 125 21 14.38%
11 Rashad Jennings JAX 24 4 14.29%
12 Bryce Brown PHI 36 6 14.29%
13 Willis McGahee DEN 37 6 13.95%
14 Mikel Leshoure DET 75 11 12.79%
------------league average----------------------------
15 Jonathan Dwyer PIT 42 6 12.50%
16 C.J. Spiller BUF 52 7 11.86%
17 Shonn Greene NYJ 98 13 11.71%
18 Chris D. JohnsonTEN 151 19 11.18%
19 BenJGreen-Ellis CIN 112 14 11.11%
20 Trent RichardsonCLE 120 15 11.11%
21 Michael Turner ATL 97 12 11.01%
22 LeSean McCoy PHI 57 7 10.94%
23 Bernard Pierce BAL 66 8 10.81%
24 Stephens-Howling ARZ 43 5 10.42%
25 Isaac Redman PIT 35 4 10.26%
26 Adrian Peterson MIN 116 13 10.08%
27 Marshawn Lynch SEA 125 14 10.07%
28 Doug Martin TB 148 16 9.76%
29 Fred Jackson BUF 30 3 9.09%
30 Bilal Powell NYJ 40 4 9.09%
31 Reggie Bush MIA 136 13 8.72%
32 Ryan Mathews SD 77 7 8.33%
33 Pierre Thomas NO 46 4 8.00%
34 Knowshon Moreno DEN 25 2 7.41%
35 Darren McFadden OAK 98 7 6.67%
36 Mark Ingram NO 84 6 6.67%
37 Jamaal Charles KC 175 12 6.42%
38 Ahmad Bradshaw NYG 90 6 6.25%
39 DeMarco Murray DAL 61 4 6.15%
40 Matt Forte CHI 141 9 6.00%
41 Felix Jones DAL 33 2 5.71%
42 Michael Bush CHI 52 2 3.70%
I came across these reading some stuff about AD. He continues this analysis in following articles as well, just wanted to pass along.
This makes me very curious what the ratio of use of this tactic used to be back in the 80-90s. I would think it was much more frequent than now or else we would not hear people talking about it as much.
