Fanduel week 5 (2 Viewers)

[Tennessee_ATO]

Rounding this back to Hoyer in Week 5.... he put 20 against the Lions.  He put up 19 against the Cowboys.  Dodds has him not at 2x or even 2.5x but nearly 3x.  

So who's more likely to hit 3x value... Hoyer, who has done so each of the last two weeks (at his current price point), or Brady to hit 26 points in his first game back, not having played since Pre-4, with a gimpy Gronk (if at all)?  Sure, that's certainly possible for a QB of his caliber and if we buy into the 'pissed off' narrative, plus he does have a good matchup with CLE (but so does Hoyer with IND).  Seems that Hoyer is the better GPP play and Brady possible the better cash play, as the chances of Brady putting up less than 2x are less likely than Hoyer putting up less than 2x.  

For Dak, week 1 was the aberration for his season.  He was $5k that week, and only hit 10 points so "only" 2x.  Every other week he would've been a tourney winner at that price point -- 18, 23, 18 points for over 3.5x, over 4.5x, and over 3.5x (assuming still priced at 5k).  I don't think you can point to that 1 week where he only hit 2x value and say "See? I told you so" when his performance over the other 3 weeks shows that a starting QB with rushing ability priced at $5k is a no-brainer.  His price was an anomaly that week, as he and every other starting QB should be priced at a minimum in the 6k-7.5k range.

If Dak hit 3x his salary, I think he's still a tough play to win @ QB. 15 points is barely at the bottom end of acceptable from a QG in cash. 

QB isn't like WR or RB. In cash there are at most 6-8 viable plays each week at QB. Of those 6-8, a big percentage will get into the 20's, AND be reasonably highly owned. 

As for Dak in week one, even at his "aberrant" pricing he still just scored 2x. You have a very tough time winning a cash game with that because RB and WR are so much more volatile. Much as I said then about Dak, if you really think Hoyer hits 19, then you should absolutely play him. You just can't ignore the fact that his floor is sub-10 because he's done it in 3 of his last 8 starts. 

 

[NixonMask]

As much as we're all in disagreement on QB this week is anyone in disagreement on these guys as the obvious WRs for cash?

Antonio Brown: $9600
Jordy Nelson: $8400
Brandon Marshall: $7600
Jarvis Landry: $7500
Amari Cooper: $7200
Emmanuel Sanders: $7100
Julian Edelman: $7000
Michael Crabtree: $6900
Quincy Enuenwa: $6200

 

[pbandy1]

As much as we're all in disagreement on QB this week is anyone in disagreement on these guys as the obvious WRs for cash?

Antonio Brown: $9600
Jordy Nelson: $8400
Brandon Marshall: $7600
Jarvis Landry: $7500
Amari Cooper: $7200
Emmanuel Sanders: $7100
Julian Edelman: $7000
Michael Crabtree: $6900
Quincy Enuenwa: $6200

Only Crabtree for me. Verrett is out and I think Cooper is the guy that gets going this week, Crabtree should be lined up against Casey Hayward who is still a solid corner for the Chargers. Last week Crabtree was against Shareece Wright who may be a bottom 15 corner so far this year.

 

[karmarooster]

As much as we're all in disagreement on QB this week is anyone in disagreement on these guys as the obvious WRs for cash?

Antonio Brown: $9600
Jordy Nelson: $8400
Brandon Marshall: $7600
Jarvis Landry: $7500
Amari Cooper: $7200
Emmanuel Sanders: $7100
Julian Edelman: $7000
Michael Crabtree: $6900
Quincy Enuenwa: $6200

Any love for JMatt?

 

[NixonMask]

My concern with SD is they're going to give up on the season here pretty quick.  Every week another key player is injured.  LT is in the news saying trade Rivers.  They already dealt with the Boss nonsense and he still hasn't played.  It's looking like a certainty they will not get their stadium.  Eventually the players are all going to just start checking out

 

[NixonMask]

Any love for JMatt?

The Chargers guys and him were the only other people I was really considering.  My concern is Wentz is due for a let down.  If this game turns into a 14-17 grind out type of game, with philly on the road and Ertz back he may only see 6-7 targets

 

[Tennessee_ATO]

As much as we're all in disagreement on QB this week is anyone in disagreement on these guys as the obvious WRs for cash?

Antonio Brown: $9600
Jordy Nelson: $8400
Brandon Marshall: $7600
Jarvis Landry: $7500
Amari Cooper: $7200
Emmanuel Sanders: $7100
Julian Edelman: $7000
Michael Crabtree: $6900
Quincy Enuenwa: $6200

I can't decide if Antonio is getting overpriced or if he's like ODB the back half of 2014 -- almost impossible to overprice.   

 

[Snorkelson]

Only Crabtree for me. Verrett is out and I think Cooper is the guy that gets going this week, Crabtree should be lined up against Casey Hayward who is still a solid corner for the Chargers. Last week Crabtree was against Shareece Wright who may be a bottom 15 corner so far this year.

So you don't like crabs or you do? Did you mean just cooper?

 

[pbandy1]

So you don't like crabs or you do? Did you mean just cooper?

I like Cooper more than Crabtree this week, but can't really say I don't like Crabtree considering how much of a RZ threat he is. I don't think the Chargers DEF will be able to get off the field with Verrett out.

 

[Snorkelson]

My Mon-Thursday cash games looking better with Palmer out- I'm guessing no one played gabbert and probably somewhere around 30-35% played Palmer. Anyone else throwing out a Stanton gpp lineup for the weekend? I know he has never looked good, but he should know the system and has 3 good wrs vs a bad team. Probably facing man coverage as they try to stop Dj...I'm really trying to talk you into it...

 

[Tennessee_ATO]

This is NE vs. Cleveland. It is possible for both those narratives to be true.  Could be 35-7 at the half, Brady gets his, then Blount takes over. 

Just remember that historically there is no better class of bets in the NFL than taking a home underdog. The vast majority of bets tend to be on the road favorite, which can help explain why lines tend not to shift as much with a home 'dog as the odds-makers know the home 'dog tends to cover.

I'm not saying that NE is going to lose to Cleveland or that the game will be competitive, only that home 'dogs tend to cover. Of course there are lots of ways to cover a 10.5 spread, including getting 2 garbage-time scores to cut the margin to 10.  

 

[Tennessee_ATO]

My Mon-Thursday cash games looking better with Palmer out- I'm guessing no one played gabbert and probably somewhere around 30-35% played Palmer. Anyone else throwing out a Stanton gpp lineup for the weekend? I know he has never looked good, but he should know the system and has 3 good wrs vs a bad team. Probably facing man coverage as they try to stop Dj...I'm really trying to talk you into it...

My brother played Palmer in his limited GPP action. I'll ask him what the percentages were for him. 

 

[KarmaPolice]

Can't you edit your lineup? Why would anybody still have Palmer in? 

 

[freeannyong]

Can't you edit your lineup? Why would anybody still have Palmer in? 

This is fanduel so no they lock on Monday night 

 

[freeannyong]

As much as we're all in disagreement on QB this week is anyone in disagreement on these guys as the obvious WRs for cash?

Antonio Brown: $9600
Jordy Nelson: $8400
Brandon Marshall: $7600
Jarvis Landry: $7500
Amari Cooper: $7200
Emmanuel Sanders: $7100
Julian Edelman: $7000
Michael Crabtree: $6900
Quincy Enuenwa: $6200

I'll just add Sterling Shepard. 

I get the love for Crabtree but I really hate rostering guys after 3 TD weeks. 

The Giants have been pretty decent against WRs, so Jordy seems too ambitious in cash. 

 

[KarmaPolice]

This is fanduel so no they lock on Monday night 

Sorry, read it backwards.  Thought it was Thurs-Mon contest.  

 

[bro1ncos]

Just remember that historically there is no better class of bets in the NFL than taking a home underdog. The vast majority of bets tend to be on the road favorite, which can help explain why lines tend not to shift as much with a home 'dog as the odds-makers know the home 'dog tends to cover.

I'm not saying that NE is going to lose to Cleveland or that the game will be competitive, only that home 'dogs tend to cover. Of course there are lots of ways to cover a 10.5 spread, including getting 2 garbage-time scores to cut the margin to 10.  

Thanks for this perspective from you and others. I enjoy reading the "Vegas" side of this topic. It isn't a knowledge I have, so I like hearing about how the betting can help predict game scripts.

 

[Tennessee_ATO]

I'll just add Sterling Shepard. 

I get the love for Crabtree but I really hate rostering guys after 3 TD weeks. 

The Giants have been pretty decent against WRs, so Jordy seems too ambitious in cash. 

I like AJ and Jordan Mathews too. Dallas has been shockingly (to me anyway) good against WR. I think they will have their hands full w/ AJ this week though. I think Philly shreds Detroit, and Mathews seems like the guy to get his share of targets. 

Antonio is so expensive and I like Ben and Leveon too, so I'm likely off him in cash even though I like him. 

 

[chet]

Any love for Beasley this week?  $5500 and Dez looks like he'll be out again.

Here's a chart I saw on Reddit--it's made for a 0.5 ppr scoring system.  Beasley is the most consistent WR listed.

 

[Bobcat10]

I was thinking Brady for a couple GPP lineups and not for cash.  Sounds like I'm in the minority here.  What's wrong with Gronk?  Huge question imo.  I think Brady will take a few weeks to get on track and I'm willing to sit him this week even vs a prime matchup to find out.  

 

[KarmaPolice]

I was thinking Brady for a couple GPP lineups and not for cash.  Sounds like I'm in the minority here.  What's wrong with Gronk?  Huge question imo.  I think Brady will take a few weeks to get on track and I'm willing to sit him this week even vs a prime matchup to find out.  

I am the opposite so far.  Have a Brady cash lineup.  I think he has a very good game, I just can't decide where the ball is going, so I am having trouble with the rest of the NE receiving options.

 

[karmarooster]

The Chargers guys and him were the only other people I was really considering.  My concern is Wentz is due for a let down.  If this game turns into a 14-17 grind out type of game, with philly on the road and Ertz back he may only see 6-7 targets

I'm not counting on a let-down for Wentz as he's got a nice matchup and is coming off a bye.  But had not considered the impact Ertz's return could have.  Thought that might be a problem since they generally occupy the same interior of the field, but Week 1 against CLE Ertz had 6/58 and JMatt 7/114/1. 

 

[karmarooster]

Current Thurs LU for cash:

Hoyer

DJohnson / McKinnon

ABrown / Cooper / Sanders

Rudolph / Crosby / Vikes

 

[Raging weasel]

My 2 cash lineups for main slate

carr  mckinnon,anderson  green,shepard,j matthews   rudolph vinateri minn

hoyer   washington,anderson   green,brown,hilton  ertz mcmanus minn

I need to choose 1 of these to use as my survivor team. I'm leaning towards the 2nd as it has upside that may help me cash and not just advance.

 

[Snorkelson]

Any love for Beasley this week?  $5500 and Dez looks like he'll be out again.

Here's a chart I saw on Reddit--it's made for a 0.5 ppr scoring system.  Beasley is the most consistent WR listed.

Eddie Royal and Zach Miller should be the beneficiaries of white being out. Everything I read is saying Alshon, but I think hoyer will rely on his safety valves. Dak is the same way. Beasley seems like a safe floor with the ceiling about 5 pts higher. Decent spot to save for cash.

 

[Tennessee_ATO]

Any love for Beasley this week?  $5500 and Dez looks like he'll be out again.

Here's a chart I saw on Reddit--it's made for a 0.5 ppr scoring system.  Beasley is the most consistent WR listed.

I've got some. I actually like him about the same if Dez plays. He may get less targets w/ Dez playing, but he'll have more room to run. 

 

[Bobcat10]

Anyone know in the end what the FBG Survivor payouts are?  Everyone advances again this week and possibly again in week 6 if it cuts to 2000.

 

[lmack]

pretty settled on this for Thursday Cash:

Brady

Howard, D. Washington

Brown, Evans, Sanders

Rudolph

Crosby

Vikings

 

[NixonMask]

I've got some. I actually like him about the same if Dez plays. He may get less targets w/ Dez playing, but he'll have more room to run. 

I would even say Beasley is more appealing if Dez is playing.  Its a stretch to say Beasley is a special talent.  He knows how to run a short route and to be where Dak expects him to.  If Dez is there to take some of the pressure off those routes it makes the entire offense more appealing.

I probably shouldnt be, but Im a little concerned about the Miami game on Sunday.  The hurricane will be gone by then, but if it dumps a few feet of rain on the stadium will it be back to NFL conditions after only a day and a half?  Its a state of the art NFL stadium in Miami, so I assume so, but Im not an engineer or a weatherman.  Anyone have any insight on this one?  The play thats really sticking out to me here is Delanie Walker though.  If its clear he's full speed and Im not worried about the field I think Ill have 100% exposure to him in GPPs atleast, if not cash on Sunday.

I'm probably going with this myself for Thursday cash:

Joe Flacco
Jerrick McKinnon
Jordan Howard
Antonio Brown
Brandon Marshall
Emmanuel Sanders
Kyle Rudolph
Mason Crosby
LA Rams

Edit:  If I pivot off that because Im not comfortable with the news on Rudolph Ill swap Sanders and Rudolph for Edelman and Ertz


 

 

[lmack]

Any concern about locking DeAndre Washington in Thu-Mon?

Murray listed as doubtful, but was apparently supposed to "test" his injury today as of 11AM.  Hopefully an update will come before TNF kickoff.

ESPN's Adam Caplan reports Latavius Murray will test his toe injury Thursday.

 

[NixonMask]

We're almost certain to get an update before then.  Most teams have released their Thursday practice reports atleast an hour before Thursday game lock

 

[pbandy1]

I like Cooper more than Crabtree this week, but can't really say I don't like Crabtree considering how much of a RZ threat he is. I don't think the Chargers DEF will be able to get off the field with Verrett out.

Actually it sounds like with Verrett out, Hayward may be on Cooper. Crabtree could get a better match-up with Brandon Flowers. 

Could be a good GPP play because of recency bias.

 

[podunker]

Thur/Mon Cash LU

Ben, DJ, Wash, Edel, AB, SS, Rudolph,Crosby, Vikings

I sure hope that Rudolph is just resting and not hurt........

I usually stay away from the Thurs. night players, but I think Ariz will ride DJ tonight to victory!

 

[NixonMask]

Rudolphs wife gave birth this week.  It would make sense they gave him the day off and put him on the injury report with whatever bruise he told them about.

 

[Megla]

Thur/Mon Cash LU

Ben, DJ, Wash, Edel, AB, SS, Rudolph,Crosby, Vikings

I sure hope that Rudolph is just resting and not hurt........

I usually stay away from the Thurs. night players, but I think Ariz will ride DJ tonight to victory!

That's 60600 unless SS is S Smith Sr and not S Shepard

 

[karmarooster]

I realized that Hoyer's placement on the "average" for Value/H-Value etc. is due to Maurile having him projected for 7.8 points (currently less than Cutler).  Dodds and Bloom have him at 16 and 17 and Cutler at zero.  There's no way he plays, right?

Latest per Roto is that he missed practice and is "day to day".... so makes me some what nervous for a Thursday slate.     

 

[brentflem13]

Anyone know in the end what the FBG Survivor payouts are?  Everyone advances again this week and possibly again in week 6 if it cuts to 2000.

5


4,000


Top 3,000 Advance to Week 6


6


3,000


Top 2,000 Advance to Week 7


7


2,000


Top 1,000 Advance to Week 8


8


1,000


Top 500 Advance to Week 9


9


500


Top 250 Advance to Week 10


10


250


$2,000 plus free Footballguys subscriptions


WEEK 10 PRIZE POOL






PLACE




PRIZE



1


$200 + Lifetime Insider PRO subscription


2


$175 + Three-year Insider PRO subscription


3


$150 + Three-year Insider PRO subscription


4


$125 + Three-year Insider PRO subscription


5


$100 + Three-year Insider PRO subscription


6


$90 + Three-year Insider PRO subscription


7


$80 + Three-year Insider PRO subscription


8


$70 + Three-year Insider PRO subscription


9


$60 + Three-year Insider PRO subscription


10


$50 + Three-year Insider PRO subscription


11-12


$45 + One-year Insider PRO subscription


13-14


$40 + One-year Insider PRO subscription


15-17


$35 + One-year Insider PRO subscription


18-20


$30 + One-year Insider PRO subscription


21-25


$25 + One-year Insider PRO subscription


26-30


$20


31-40


$15


41-50


$10


51-62


$5

 

[KarmaPolice]

We're almost certain to get an update before then.  Most teams have released their Thursday practice reports atleast an hour before Thursday game lock

Have him and DJ in linuep, but also have my pivot idea on deck. 

AT 4700, DWash is in what - 80% of lineups now?

 

[NixonMask]

I realized that Hoyer's placement on the "average" for Value/H-Value etc. is due to Maurile having him projected for 7.8 points (currently less than Cutler).  Dodds and Bloom have him at 16 and 17 and Cutler at zero.  There's no way he plays, right?

Latest per Roto is that he missed practice and is "day to day".... so makes me some what nervous for a Thursday slate.     

If he misses practice today Id say theres 0 chance

 

[Snorkelson]

Sun main gpp

tannehill

washington

west

julio

antonio

odell

ertz

crosby

rams

Reasonable way to roll out the top 3 wrs?

 

[Megla]

Sun main gpp

tannehill

washington

west

julio

antonio

odell

ertz

crosby

rams

Reasonable way to roll out the top 3 wrs?

I have more faith in Dak or Hoyer at QB

 

[Snorkelson]

I have more faith in Dak or Hoyer at QB

I originally had hoyer and had 1100 left. Also thought about swapping Julio for aj, maybe I'll see what a couple hundred can buy me.

 

[KarmaPolice]

So is OBJ the guy damn near everyone is targeting in gpp this week?  Seems like i see a lot of him and Brown in lineups.  Worry about the ownership a little this week.

 

[NixonMask]

Back to the drawing board.  Rudolph still limited and edelman a new addition to the injury report.  I think I'm pay up to Ben now and dropping Marshall to enunwa.

 

[KarmaPolice]

Back to the drawing board.  Rudolph still limited and edelman a new addition to the injury report.  I think I'm pay up to Ben now and dropping Marshall to enunwa.

Good grief, why is Edelman on the report? 

 

[karmarooster]

Back to the drawing board.  Rudolph still limited and edelman a new addition to the injury report.  I think I'm pay up to Ben now and dropping Marshall to enunwa.

Where do you see this on Rudolph?  Only thing I see is that he returned today (and was out yesterday due to his wife giving birth rather than true injury)

 

[NixonMask]

I use rotowires practice report.  It doesnt say exactly why or the severity, its possible they gave him the morning to be with the kid again, but unless theres clarification this is the exact kind of uncertainty I like avoiding. 

http://www.rotowire.com/football/practice-report.htm

 

[karmarooster]

Ok, fair enough.  It's probably nothing but there's an easy pivot to Ertz for $100 more, so I may split up my Thursday entries out of an abundance of caution.  

 

[lmack]

D Washington, Edelman, Rudolph... I gotta stop playing Thursday slate

 

[KarmaPolice]

Is there anything on Edelman besides "foot"?  I see he was limited in practice, not didn't practice.