Tennessee_ATO
Footballguy
If Dak hit 3x his salary, I think he's still a tough play to win @ QB. 15 points is barely at the bottom end of acceptable from a QG in cash.karmarooster said:Rounding this back to Hoyer in Week 5.... he put 20 against the Lions. He put up 19 against the Cowboys. Dodds has him not at 2x or even 2.5x but nearly 3x.
So who's more likely to hit 3x value... Hoyer, who has done so each of the last two weeks (at his current price point), or Brady to hit 26 points in his first game back, not having played since Pre-4, with a gimpy Gronk (if at all)? Sure, that's certainly possible for a QB of his caliber and if we buy into the 'pissed off' narrative, plus he does have a good matchup with CLE (but so does Hoyer with IND). Seems that Hoyer is the better GPP play and Brady possible the better cash play, as the chances of Brady putting up less than 2x are less likely than Hoyer putting up less than 2x.
For Dak, week 1 was the aberration for his season. He was $5k that week, and only hit 10 points so "only" 2x. Every other week he would've been a tourney winner at that price point -- 18, 23, 18 points for over 3.5x, over 4.5x, and over 3.5x (assuming still priced at 5k). I don't think you can point to that 1 week where he only hit 2x value and say "See? I told you so" when his performance over the other 3 weeks shows that a starting QB with rushing ability priced at $5k is a no-brainer. His price was an anomaly that week, as he and every other starting QB should be priced at a minimum in the 6k-7.5k range.
QB isn't like WR or RB. In cash there are at most 6-8 viable plays each week at QB. Of those 6-8, a big percentage will get into the 20's, AND be reasonably highly owned.
As for Dak in week one, even at his "aberrant" pricing he still just scored 2x. You have a very tough time winning a cash game with that because RB and WR are so much more volatile. Much as I said then about Dak, if you really think Hoyer hits 19, then you should absolutely play him. You just can't ignore the fact that his floor is sub-10 because he's done it in 3 of his last 8 starts.