KarmaPolice
Footballguy
When you do that, do you use the same core, or different? Ie would you do Mariota/R.Matthews/Hilton and then Brissett/Matthews/Hilton, or would you use different stacks?
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Fanduel Week 6 (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter KarmaPolice
- Start date
KarmaPolice
Footballguy
Didn't see if there was injuries or whatnot, but is there a reason that Freeman and Hunt only got 9 carries? 2 weeks in a row for me now of getting on the "workhorse" backs that their coaches seem to forget are part of the team.
RatrodGasser
Footballguy
Hunt is so pricey I'm wondering if people will steer clear of him? Maybe Andy has been saving him for this Raider game? Thanks for the insight though theres some things brought up ive never considered before. Any word on if Mariota is playing?
Tennessee_ATO
Footballguy
no, different stacks and that should be #2 WR, so Brisset would be stacked with Moncrief/TE along with the other teams #1 WR, 2 best RBs, home kicker and best D from other game
KarmaPolice
Footballguy
Cool, thanks. Dumb question - is Moncrief or Aiken the #2. I figured Moncrief, but when I glanced, it looked like Aiken was getting more targets.
KarmaPolice
Footballguy
Pricing is so loose, I don't think you have to fade him. I just tried 4 25 cent LUs, and fit him in all 4. One had 500 left over, and the other 3 were almost 2K left. If you wanted to go a little contrarian with him I would guess something like Hunt + Henry or Hunt + Mack might do it?
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RatrodGasser
Footballguy
Rhythmdoctor
Footballguy
HOT JESUS!! Had a great week on FanDuel. $3,480 in total, $3k just came from the $200K Thu NFL Rush ($40K to 1st, Thu-Mon) tournament where I placed 5th! That last Henry TD put me from $300 to $3k - I had identical lineups where I split Henry and Murray. So the Murray lineup was at $300. Man, just 7 point from $40k grand prize.
Not sure if this link works if you're not in the tournament.
https://www.fanduel.com/games/21391/contests/21391-211946855/entries/1287252136/scoring
Not sure if this link works if you're not in the tournament.
https://www.fanduel.com/games/21391/contests/21391-211946855/entries/1287252136/scoring
Rhythmdoctor
Footballguy
Looking closer, 1.5 more points gets me 2nd and $20k. Ouch.
Rhythmdoctor
Footballguy
It's been a couple years since I've won a few grand from one tournament! Feels good to have a good stack of house money to finish off the year.
Raging weasel
Footballguy
KarmaPolice
Footballguy
Congrats, and this has happened to you before??Rhythmdoctor said:
Maybe we need more input in this thread from you and megla who seem to be up 100s each week...
Rhythmdoctor
Footballguy
Thanks! Yeah, I've probably placed in the 2nd-5th range 4-5 times previously but not in 2016. It's pretty awesome but frustrating being just a point or 2 away from BIG $$$$. I'm grateful nonetheless!
Rhythmdoctor
Footballguy
I will add, I think it's fairly easy to nail 5-6 skill players but the difference maker in every tournament I enter, between the top 10 finishers and everyone else is PK and D. A few weeks back I won $30 or so in the big tournament with the $500k grand prize and I had the exact lineup as the winner from QB-WRs, so first 6 skill players. I whiffed on TE, PK & D. I'm going to start doing more analysis on defenses from now on. I got lucky this week on PK and D (Succop and BAL).
KarmaPolice
Footballguy
Rhythmdoctor
Footballguy
I'm on here a lot in the shark pool but I don't participate or read this or any other DFS related content. I was slightly active in this forum last year though. I'm in 9 high stakes leagues, 2 dynasties and like 5 regular re-draft leagues and playing FF since 1993. So for me I've been so consumed by FF for so long I just go by that. My research consists of defensive positional rankings and that's pretty much it.
Pretty basic strategy but I put in here just in case
K-Look for a kicker at home in a high total game and if that game is indoor then its a plus.
DEF- pair your DEF with a strong running game, look for DEF playing rookie/Bad QBs or look for a home D in a low total game.
Don't get caught up in the avoiding a D because you have players going up against that D. Team D don't score the majority of points based on the points they give up but rather on scoring TDs, getting TO and sacs, all of which can happen even when the team is giving up points
Rhythmdoctor
Footballguy
Yeah, makes sense and is basically how I select those positions. That was definitely my strategy with BAL this weekend. Thing for me is that I focus so much on the offensive players, I'm usually stuck buying the cheapest of both. $4900 for BAL is probably the most I've spent on D all year.
KarmaPolice
Footballguy
I have noticed that it is pretty easying getting those 2-3% plays at these positions, but really have 0 clue where to look for info, especially for K. I usually try out ones on a team that I think will have a decent chance of moving the ball, but don't have the Rbs or talent to punch it in for TDs.
I know it always frustrastes and suprises me when I look at teams at the top see something like a Stafford/Tate/Jones stack AND the NO D.
I guess in the end, turnovers and TDs matter more than those points for points allowed, so looking at DL vs. OL, ints/g, and a team that will have to pass the ball a lot in a game for ideas since they will be prone for more turnovers than a team who runs.
Really like this tip as so many times the chalk Ds (I am looking at you, Denver and Atl!) and PKs get you a combined 14 points or something, and if you can get those Ks and Ds that combine for 40 points on the week at 2% you are way ahead of the game.
Rhythmdoctor
Footballguy
Yep! Without a doubt D and PK are the difference makers most of the time. I might try picking the bottom 4 PKs and Ds and playing them in every combo with the same 7 core players. This week, the bottom 5 Ds are all playing at home too!
KarmaPolice
Footballguy
Thanks for reinforcing that - I need to get that out of my head ASAP, as I see it all the time in LUs at the top of gpps.
As far as K goes, is there anything else to look at. I assume there has to be a difference between teams with a high total. Ie - I have gotten stuck a lot of times with Gostkowski or a PK like that in a high total just kicking PATs while some scrub for Houston is attempting 7 FGs.
KarmaPolice
Footballguy
I probably need to simplify my process to this too. I am bored during the week and probably bombard myself with too many stats. Look at guys getting touches, bad Ds, remember that talent wins out in the end most of the time - more Pats players, less Browns players.
My personal preference is not to spend high on K, Like I said I look for a home K, in a high total game and love when that is indoors, but I want that kicker to be sub 5000. This week in my THur-Mon and main slate LUs I went very heavy with Lutz/Succop and had MB exposure in a few GPPs
KarmaPolice
Footballguy
Thanks again. It really gives me something to think about. I (and I am sure a lot of people) narrow it down to 2-3 Ks and Ds in a couple tiers and just stick with them for everything. Never really think to keep the same qb/rb/wrs in there and rotate TE/K/D, even though they are probably more volatile than the other positions. Frankly, I don't like looking at stuff for PK and D. It's a lot sexier and more exciting to talk about WRs and RBs.
KarmaPolice
Footballguy
Last question for you two: Do you mainly just do home Ds?
I see what you mean about cheap home Ds this week. Teams like GB and NYG vs. qbs with terrible home/road splits, Mia vs. Jets, or Chic vs. Cam are all 4.3 or less this week.
PKs I wrote down quick at the bottom were Adam V, Elliot (I have a few thur-mon gpps), Crosby, and Gould.
I see what you mean about cheap home Ds this week. Teams like GB and NYG vs. qbs with terrible home/road splits, Mia vs. Jets, or Chic vs. Cam are all 4.3 or less this week.
PKs I wrote down quick at the bottom were Adam V, Elliot (I have a few thur-mon gpps), Crosby, and Gould.
Rhythmdoctor
Footballguy
I hear ya and me too! Typically my strategy is to find a core of players, say 4 RBs, 4 WRs and the 4 QBs for those WRs - and I'll mix and match those 12 players in every possible combo essentially, then I'll use my leftover $$ to scrounge for D and PK. I think now I'm going to refine that core of skill players down to 2-2-2 and do the above strategy with PK and D. We'll see how it works.
E2A: obviously 2-3-2
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Rhythmdoctor
Footballguy
I think for me it's a bonus if a D I like is at home but I don't exclusively look for it. I just happened to notice the cheap Ds (which you could argue are poor Ds) are at home this week which makes them 'more likely' (probably not in reality) in my head to outscore their expectations.
KarmaPolice
Footballguy
I am just about out of funds, but I will probably try that in some 25cent gpps this week. Instead of 1 $1gpp, I will try the same combo up top and do 4 different combos of PK/Def in a 25cent gpp.
KarmaPolice
Footballguy
It makes sense with crowd noise (well, not if you are the Chargers) helping to make mistakes and miscommunications on the O more likely.
Rhythmdoctor
Footballguy
Quite frankly, a lot of my 'strategy' is mean reversion. I had Julio on practically every roster because he was 'due'. I'm gonna load up on him again this week too even if BB supposedly shuts down the opponent's best player. There's no player more due for a huge game than Julio. I'll ride him until he blows up.
Rhythmdoctor
Footballguy
Cheap RBs I like right now (minimal research) with favorable matchups:
Kamara
CMC
AP
Morris/McFadden
Murray/Henry
Mixon
Kamara
CMC
AP
Morris/McFadden
Murray/Henry
Mixon
KarmaPolice
Footballguy
I have been looking at that a little too. Guys getting volume, but not TDs yet (should've had me on Ingram last week). That's why I tried Ajayi a bit last week in gpps, and I believe he hasn't scored a TD yet either. Julio is another, and I think K.Allen is there too. Oakland and Cooper is another huge one. If I remember right, didn't Atl and Oak both chance OCs? I would assume that soon they will figure something out. Problem for gpps this week is Julio will be hugely popular this week vs. the crappy NE D, but I guess that just means if you like him, just go 50% on him.
Trying to look more at talented guys who have been disappointing vs. less talented guys that have been playing well.
Rhythmdoctor
Footballguy
Yep. And that's exactly why I had Ingram in my winning lineup along with Murray/Henry. I actually had Keenan Allen in that lineup as well and he was my one 'bad' pick.
KarmaPolice
Footballguy
Rhythmdoctor
Footballguy
Another thing I used to do that I'm trying to stop doing so much... because of my contrarian and mean-reversion nature, I have historically avoided players who just had a good game (Bell, A. Brown, AP are examples from week 6. I think players/teams get hot for stretches so instead of simplifying my mean reversion as 'player X just had a great game, they're due for a bad game', I'm trying to play 'hot' players. It's tricky though, players seem to get hot for 2-3 games at most and sometimes it's 3 games out of 5 etc.... but yeah, just getting out of trying to over analyze and just get back to basics. If a stud just had 2 great games and has a great matchup... play that guy again!!
