duaneok66
Footballguy
all picks in every draft are "strong value" . . . just ask the person/draft making the pick . . .
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Fanex Analysis Draft (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter TC
- Start date
I am positive i could score better than at least 50% of these drafters some of whom I have no clue who they are. Paul Charchian? I have had the chnace to get to know and actually played with many of these drafters and was not overwhemled by any of them. This seems like a bit of a click really now and some of them just don't belong. I have seen some very questionalbe picks. I will say i have enjoyed following the draft and reading the comments and have for many years now but have not seeked it out the last few years and..that TC he's such a good EGG. Now when i see this draft I just say I would love to play against these guys again and show them what's up. I said that same thing many years ago in the RSFF NG and we started it league that still exists to this day.
Just a bad pick here and after just glancing over it Brandon Jackson and Gonzo were picked well out of place. Dangelo Williams at 3.12 might be a bit soon also..but i do like his chances this year I just would not want to take him as the third player on my roster at this point. Brady so soon and before Palmer makes me wonder. I don't want to start picking this draft apart it might take to long and I have other things to get to right now. There are a few guys i really like as people in this draft..TC and Kellogg being two of them. I can't complement TC enough for what he is doing with youthfantasyfootball.com that for sure. My son played since he was like 10 or so and has really grew to enjoy and learn the hobby with its help. That i thank you for TC.
TC
Footballguy
Paul is the owner of the succesfull (and witty) Fanball.com. While I don't personally agree with every suggestion they present, I believe it one of the more enjoyable FF sites due to the humor and wit displayed by his staff and editing. Example:
LenDale White, Titans - Hopefully none of this year's second-round picks suffer the same fate as White, whose gluttony is matched only by Pizza the Hut. The fact is LenDale had a chance to compete for the starting job in Tennessee last season if he had kept himself in shape and out of trouble. Of course, that didn't happen and he was useless to fantasy owners as a result. In an odd twist of fate, it was White's ineptitude that forced the Titans to use another second-round pick this season on Chris Henry and those two will battle for the starting job in training camp.
LordBourbon
Footballguy
Our team took Brady. And in 20/20 hindsight, yes, it was not a good pick, because Palmer went so much later...However - we took him in the middle of the third roundAccording to the footballguys.com write up (using this write up since we're on the site here) - Chris Smith wrote...DLeo said:
Why he is undervalued according to one of our writers (based on an ADP of 38, QB 4 on June 30 --- go here for the complete article)
Chris Smith - I believe that Tom Brady will be the #1 fantasy quarterback this season. With the addition of three very good receivers, Brady will be able to elevate his numbers to an elite level in 2007.
His ADP was 38 at the time and the 4th QB taken. We took him at 30 - and have the same POV as Smith that he could be the #1 fantasy QB - so is that a big reach?
Also, the other Fanexers decided to hold off on QBs for longer than I can remember - it was really extraordinary how long the other drafters held off.
Again, if we knew Palmer would have lasted another round, we probably would have taken Williams there and gotten Palmer or Brees next round...But , we didn't; and we realize it's a mistake. There was a lot of debate on our picks at the site we write for fantasysharks.com - and we did a complete mea culpa (you can read the stickied discussion over there if you wish) - however - I like how our draft has gone overall; and I am happy with our team.
We have excellent QBs (got Vick int he 10th), RBs and a good starting TE; our weak spot is WRs, but we are working on a servicable crew ; esp. with a best ball format.
OK - thanks all
(The Walls part of the Dolfi/Walls team on the FAD)
Sorry I am so late coming to the party. Here is my reasoning for Edge over Maroney (the guys I liked best at the position I picked). Edge is in his second year in Arizona and has a coach that has already stated he is going to use the run more if possible. I believe he will. Edge is an experienced veteran who will clearly be the feature back on his team. Maroney may have more talent at this point in their careers, but he shared carries as a rookie and he was nicked for much of the year. I felt Edge was the better (read more consistent and safer) of the two backs. The fact that I got both of them was a bonus.
If he liked Maroney more than the rest, then he took an awful risk waiting. If he liked someone else more than Maroney, then he unnecessarily missed out on them by not taking them first and Edge in the second. The only way the Edge pick makes sense is if he likes Edge so far and away better than any of the next five guys on his list, who he thinks are all relatively equal, that he wouldn't risk the very small chance that Edge got taken before his next pick just to get his favorite one.good point, but since he DID get Maroney at 2.3 (a guy who's often taken in the 1st) it came out okay . . .That's what I was thinking. If you're high on Edge, that's fine. But you're taking a risk with him. So take a safer option like Johnson or Henry in the first and then get Edge at 2.3.
gianmarco
Footballguy
Depends on what your definition of "excellent" is.
No - I don't have any inside info really. I just don't pay much attention to ADP in the first three or four rounds because all it takes is one guy who is high on YOUR guy to ruin your day. I suspected Maroney would fall to me and it did happen. I suspected that if I didn't take Edge in the first he would not reach me in the second (FanEx ALWAYS is RB heavy). Edge has missed just one game in the past three years so I don't believe he is a health risk - Maroney is. James gained over 1150 yards rushing despite averaging only 3.4 ypc. I expect his numbers to rise because I expect him to be around the 4.0 ypc mark and if he does that with 350 carries he will be in the 1400 rushing yard area as well. I DO expect Arizona to improve and possibly contend for the division title this year.
I have liked Kellogg's analysis no matter where he has been the last few years but after reading this, the Edge pick still needs more splainin. "After selecting a relatively older back with my first pick, I felt it was imperative I get a young stud to go with him. Maroney is moving into a feature back role for a team that gained 1969 rushing yards last season. With Corey Dillon gone, the bulk of the team’s nearly 500 carries will fall to Maroney. Expect 325 carries for 1400 yards and 10 TDs this season"I do not know how Edge gets drafted when Maroney's ADP is clearly higher and Greg's expectations for Maroney are super high. For all I know he knows something we do not, so I am curious ......
I was late on a couple of picks and apologized profusely for it. It didn't mean I wasn't committed or serious - I just had some real life issues that cropped up during the draft. My team has been called a "trainwreck" - we shall see. I kind of like what I put together. Here is a complete list of my roster, probable weekly starting lineup and analysis.
POS Player Bye QB Grossman, Rex CHI 9 QB Kitna, Jon DET 6 RB Bush, Michael OAK 5 RB Dunn, Warrick ATL 8 RB James, Edgerrin ARI 8 RB Maroney, Laurence NEP 10 RB Norwood, Jerious ATL 8 WR Boldin, Anquan ARI 8 WR Evans, Lee BUF 6 WR Kennison, Eddie KCC 8 WR Porter, Jerry OAK 5 WR Williams, Reggie JAC 4 TE Lewis, Marcedes JAC 4 TE Winslow, Kellen CLE 7 PK Crosby, Mason GBP 7 PK Rackers, Neil ARI 8 DF Colts, Indianapolis 6 DF Raiders, Oakland 5StartersQB Kitna
RB James
RB Maroney
FX Dunn, Norwood or Porter
WR Boldin
WR Evans
WR Kennison
TE Winslow
PK Rackers
DF Raiders
1.10 10. Greg Kellogg James, Edgerrin ARI RB Mon Jul 2 10:57:58 a.m. ET 2007
Picking this late in the first round is always tough - do you break the run and grab the top QB or WR, or try to get one of the few remaining RBs. I opted for the latter strategy. I selected James because he is normally very durable and should approach 380 touches for the year. With the new coaching staff and rookie OT Levi Brown, James should rise in productivity.
2.03 15. Greg Kellogg Maroney, Laurence NEP RB Mon Jul 2 11:12:58 a.m. ET 2007
After selecting a relatively older back with my first pick, I felt it was imperative I get a young stud to go with him. Maroney is moving into a feature back role for a team that gained 1969 rushing yards last season. With Corey Dillon gone, the bulk of the team’s nearly 500 carries will fall to Maroney. Expect 325 carries for 1400 yards and 10 TDs this season.
3.10 34. Greg Kellogg Boldin, Anquan ARI WR Wed Jul 4 8:36:10 a.m. ET 2007
With two RBs in the fold I felt it imperative I add a quality wideout. This league starts three to four WRs so getting a top guy that can consistently put points on the board is nice. But truth to tell, Marshawn Lynch was my pre-pick selection. He fell one pick before me so I opted for Boldin, a receiver I expect to exceed his reception (83) and TD (4) counts from last year while maintaining his two year streak of 1200 plus yards.
Note: I had Marshawn Lynch listed ahead of Boldin but he went the pick before this.
4.03 39. Greg Kellogg Evans, Lee BUF WR Wed Jul 4 12:54:29 p.m. ET 2007
Once again the player at the top of my pre-draft list, Antonio Gates, was selected right in front of me. Perhaps this is a good thing. It forced me to take my second wideout and in Lee Evans I get a guy that exploded as a third year pro with career highs in receptions (82) and yards (1292) while maintaining his career average of 8 TDs.
Note: Second pick in a row where the guy I was targetting was taken one pick before me.
5.10 58. Greg Kellogg Norwood, Jerious ATL RB Thu Jul 5 3:26:03 p.m. ET 2007
Norwood certainly didn’t set the world on fire in 2006. He only scored 98 points in the FanEx scoring system. But he did show some explosion and the promise of his capability should Warrick Dunn falter. With Dunn turning 32 this January, you have to believe the touches he has garnered since coming to Atlanta is going to catch up soon. And Norwood averaged 6.4 ypc last year. He also showed his game-breaking ability by gaining at least 10 yards on a single carry in 10 of the 14 games in which he appeared. This included 69 and 78-yard runs.
6.03 63. Greg Kellogg Dunn, Warrick ATL RB Fri Jul 6 1:40:19 p.m. ET 2007
Though it seems clear that Norwood is the future in Atlanta , Dunn is the now. For the past three years Dunn has averaged over 300 touches a season and has topped 1300 total yards in each of them. He has averaged an impressive 1452 total yards despite being mostly ignored in the passing game, one of his strengths. If Dunn can take the pounding of a fourth straight 300-touch season, he will be my third back. If not, he will share time with Norwood . Either way, I have locked up my third RB slot.
Note: My 5th and 6th round picks were forced on me by the loss of Lynch in the third. I thought it more important to get a third starting RB locked up than my second and third receivers. This is a case where Lynch went much earlier than I had anticipated and caused me to recalculate later.
7.10 82. Greg Kellogg Kitna, Jon DET QB Sat Jul 7 10:47:48 a.m. ET 2007
Most people don’t get it when it comes to Kitna. They see a career backup and let him slip down their draft boards. Last season, Kitna’s first in a Mike Martz offense, he finished sixth in QB scoring. That was better than three of the seven QBs selected in front of him. This year Detroit has added depth at RB and a stellar wideout in rookie Calvin Johnson. Combined with the fact that his primary competition for playing time is now in Oakland and you have to believe Kitna will put up at least as good a season as a year ago and could be substantially better.
8.03 87. Greg Kellogg Winslow, Kellen CLE TE Sat Jul 7 9:04:10 p.m. ET 2007
Like Kitna, Winslow has slid down a lot of draft boards and I have to wonder why. His QB situation is no worse than a year ago and probably improved. He seems to be healthy and finished third in TE scoring last season and he did that on receptions and yards – the stats most likely to repeat. If he adds a couple TDs he could challenge Antonio Gates for the top spot this season.
9.10 106. Greg Kellogg Porter, Jerry OAK WR Sun Jul 8 5:30:12 p.m. ET 2007
It’s not surprising that Porter slipped this far. After landing in former coach Art Shell’s doghouse last year Porter only appeared in four games and started none. This after two straight 900+ yard seasons including one where he just missed 1,000 yards and 10 TDs (998 yards and 9 TDs in 2005). With Shell out of town and Randy Moss gone, Porter should step up as the team’s top receiver in 2007 and even on a bad team that should mean 1100 yards and 10 TDs.
10.03 111. Greg Kellogg Kennison, Eddie KCC WR Mon Jul 9 7:05:27 p.m. ET 2007
Many people seem to think that Damon Huard or Brodie Coyle at QB means that all KC will be able to do is hand the ball to Larry Johnson. I don’t. I believe KC will have to throw and Kennison has been their top receiver for three or four years. I suspect he will end up with around 1000 yards and seven TDs. Which makes him a value pick at this point in the draft.
Note: I do believe Kennison is a value pick in the 10th round. In a subpar year, he finished as the 89th ranked player at any position and the 32nd ranked WR. He is probably not the BEST value in this draft (Kitna might be) but he is a value pick.
11.10 130. Greg Kellogg Bush, Michael OAK RB ® Mon Jul 9 11:57:34 p.m. ET 2007
With the recent news that Dominic Rhodes has been suspended for four games, the starting job in Oakland will fall to either Bush or Lamont Jordan. Since Jordan has averaged 3.8 ypc as an Oakland starter (2 years), I don’t believe he is the answer. Bush would have been a mid-first round pick had he not broken his leg at the beginning of his senior season. I believe the talent is there but whether a leg with a steel rod in it can handle the pounding remains a viable question.
Note: I needed a RB that did not have a Week 6 bye. There wasn't a lot left but I was ecstatic to see a guy I feel could end up starting in Oakland fall to me at this pick.
12.03 135. Greg Kellogg Grossman, Rex CHI QB Tue Jul 10 12:33:01 p.m. ET 2007
While Grossman finished last season with very mixed results, he is a starter and did show some flashes of absolute brilliance - especially early in the year. When one considers this is really his second season due to injuries it should be expected that he will improve on last season's 3200 yards and 23 TDs. If he just cuts down on his picks I will be happy. And on Kitna's bye week, Chicago hosts Minnesota during Detroit's bye - a game that could turn into a shootout.
13.10 154. Greg Kellogg Williams, Reggie JAC WR Thu Jul 12 1:09:44 a.m. ET 2007
In filling out my roster I wanted to ensure any holes I had were plugged tightly. At WR two of my four picks had a week 8 bye which forced me to look at receivers that did not share that bye week. I settled on Williams because he faces the once tough Tampa Defense in week 8. I say once tough because in 2006 the Bucs gave up 26 passing TDs (next to worst in the league). I felt Williams was the best Jags receiver because he has improved his receptions and yards in each of his three seasons.
Note: I did consider Mike Furrey here (taken next) but felt that Williams has the potential to be the leading receiver for the Jags whereas Furrey will be moving to the slot and will not approach last year's numbers.
14.03 159. Greg Kellogg Lewis, Marcedes JAC TE Thu Jul 12 9:50:50 a.m. ET 2007
Lewis is a hunch play. With uncertainty at the quarterback position in Jacksonville , the tight end might have a bigger role than in years past. Lewis is entering his second season after a mostly forgettable rookie campaign. Jermaine Wiggens would probably have been a safer pick but I feel Lewis might surprise people this season and since he is just a backup tight end, I rolled the dice.
Note: Probably my worst selection. I totally spaced on the Wiggins signing. I didn't think Lewis would have any competition for the job. But it might still work out - just not as clear as when I made the pick.
15.10 178. Greg Kellogg Raiders, Oakland OAK Def Fri Jul 13 11:12:55 a.m. ET 2007
Most people will look at this pick as a mistake. I have to admit the Raiders do not score well in this scoring system. But Oakland does play good defense from an NFL perspective and if the offense can pick it up just a bit, I believe they can turn around their lack of scoring from previous fantasy seasons. The addition of Donovan Darius also influenced my decision.
16.03 183. Greg Kellogg Rackers, Neil ARI PK Fri Jul 13 5:15:17 p.m. ET 2007
Rackers was the 8th ranked PK last season and the top ranked guy in 2006. I believe the Cardinals will only improve in 2007 which should give Rackers even more opportunities.
Note: Yes, I have more Cardinals on my roster than I normally would like. But you can't really argue with the Boldin or Rackers pick where I took them. I know there has been some discussion of the James pick but I did get the two RBs I was targetting so I am not unhappy with the first two rounds.
17.10 202. Greg Kellogg Colts, Indianapolis IND Def Sat Jul 14 1:33:19 p.m. ET 2007
In this scoring systems turnovers will be king. Tony Dungy has always had good defenses until he got to the Colts. Last year the Colts digressed from the upwards trend they had shown the previous year. I believe that was more due to injuries than to Dungy's coaching. Look for a marked improvement from the Colts in 2007.
18.03 207. Greg Kellogg Crosby, Mason GBP PK ® Sun Jul 15 8:08:25 a.m. ET 2007
Why a rookie kicker? Because of his leg. Green Bay will move the ball with Brett Favre at the helm. But they may not score as many TDs because their running game is suspect. Enter rookie PK Crosby. Crosby already has a 60-yard field goal (without a tee) to his credit and just missed on a 65-yard attempt. Of his 200 collegiate kickoffs, 137 went for touchbacks with over half of them going out of the end zone.
+++
In any draft there are going to be picks you wish you would have made differently. I could have taken Gates in the third but I might have lost Boldin in doing so. Had I gotten Lynch in the third, then I would have not taken RBs in the fifth and sixth so that would have changed the complexion of my team as well. But you play the hand dealt you. When a player you covet goes before your pick, you make an adjustment and move on. I am not a huge proponent of ADP as some in this forum are. It is a tool to take into consideration but one should also be aware that every draft is different. Following ADP will lose you a lot of players you really want. I don't do that. I draft players where I think they have value - not where a lot of people I don't know thinks they have value.
This approach has worked well for me. In FanEx I have never finished last (though I came close one year). I have made the playoffs in three or four years and have won one championship and lost one championship game. I beat John Hansen the year I won (thank you Oronde Gadsden) and lost by less than 2 points to Brian Hulett the year I lost.
While I understand the points the critics of the James pick are making I disagree with them. I was more willing to risk losing Maroney than James. So I took James first. I projected the two equally but felt James was in the more secure situation and more likely to out-perform my projections. I did not value Jame a great deal more than Maroney. I just was more willing to lose Maroney than James.
POS Player Bye QB Grossman, Rex CHI 9 QB Kitna, Jon DET 6 RB Bush, Michael OAK 5 RB Dunn, Warrick ATL 8 RB James, Edgerrin ARI 8 RB Maroney, Laurence NEP 10 RB Norwood, Jerious ATL 8 WR Boldin, Anquan ARI 8 WR Evans, Lee BUF 6 WR Kennison, Eddie KCC 8 WR Porter, Jerry OAK 5 WR Williams, Reggie JAC 4 TE Lewis, Marcedes JAC 4 TE Winslow, Kellen CLE 7 PK Crosby, Mason GBP 7 PK Rackers, Neil ARI 8 DF Colts, Indianapolis 6 DF Raiders, Oakland 5StartersQB Kitna
RB James
RB Maroney
FX Dunn, Norwood or Porter
WR Boldin
WR Evans
WR Kennison
TE Winslow
PK Rackers
DF Raiders
1.10 10. Greg Kellogg James, Edgerrin ARI RB Mon Jul 2 10:57:58 a.m. ET 2007
Picking this late in the first round is always tough - do you break the run and grab the top QB or WR, or try to get one of the few remaining RBs. I opted for the latter strategy. I selected James because he is normally very durable and should approach 380 touches for the year. With the new coaching staff and rookie OT Levi Brown, James should rise in productivity.
2.03 15. Greg Kellogg Maroney, Laurence NEP RB Mon Jul 2 11:12:58 a.m. ET 2007
After selecting a relatively older back with my first pick, I felt it was imperative I get a young stud to go with him. Maroney is moving into a feature back role for a team that gained 1969 rushing yards last season. With Corey Dillon gone, the bulk of the team’s nearly 500 carries will fall to Maroney. Expect 325 carries for 1400 yards and 10 TDs this season.
3.10 34. Greg Kellogg Boldin, Anquan ARI WR Wed Jul 4 8:36:10 a.m. ET 2007
With two RBs in the fold I felt it imperative I add a quality wideout. This league starts three to four WRs so getting a top guy that can consistently put points on the board is nice. But truth to tell, Marshawn Lynch was my pre-pick selection. He fell one pick before me so I opted for Boldin, a receiver I expect to exceed his reception (83) and TD (4) counts from last year while maintaining his two year streak of 1200 plus yards.
Note: I had Marshawn Lynch listed ahead of Boldin but he went the pick before this.
4.03 39. Greg Kellogg Evans, Lee BUF WR Wed Jul 4 12:54:29 p.m. ET 2007
Once again the player at the top of my pre-draft list, Antonio Gates, was selected right in front of me. Perhaps this is a good thing. It forced me to take my second wideout and in Lee Evans I get a guy that exploded as a third year pro with career highs in receptions (82) and yards (1292) while maintaining his career average of 8 TDs.
Note: Second pick in a row where the guy I was targetting was taken one pick before me.
5.10 58. Greg Kellogg Norwood, Jerious ATL RB Thu Jul 5 3:26:03 p.m. ET 2007
Norwood certainly didn’t set the world on fire in 2006. He only scored 98 points in the FanEx scoring system. But he did show some explosion and the promise of his capability should Warrick Dunn falter. With Dunn turning 32 this January, you have to believe the touches he has garnered since coming to Atlanta is going to catch up soon. And Norwood averaged 6.4 ypc last year. He also showed his game-breaking ability by gaining at least 10 yards on a single carry in 10 of the 14 games in which he appeared. This included 69 and 78-yard runs.
6.03 63. Greg Kellogg Dunn, Warrick ATL RB Fri Jul 6 1:40:19 p.m. ET 2007
Though it seems clear that Norwood is the future in Atlanta , Dunn is the now. For the past three years Dunn has averaged over 300 touches a season and has topped 1300 total yards in each of them. He has averaged an impressive 1452 total yards despite being mostly ignored in the passing game, one of his strengths. If Dunn can take the pounding of a fourth straight 300-touch season, he will be my third back. If not, he will share time with Norwood . Either way, I have locked up my third RB slot.
Note: My 5th and 6th round picks were forced on me by the loss of Lynch in the third. I thought it more important to get a third starting RB locked up than my second and third receivers. This is a case where Lynch went much earlier than I had anticipated and caused me to recalculate later.
7.10 82. Greg Kellogg Kitna, Jon DET QB Sat Jul 7 10:47:48 a.m. ET 2007
Most people don’t get it when it comes to Kitna. They see a career backup and let him slip down their draft boards. Last season, Kitna’s first in a Mike Martz offense, he finished sixth in QB scoring. That was better than three of the seven QBs selected in front of him. This year Detroit has added depth at RB and a stellar wideout in rookie Calvin Johnson. Combined with the fact that his primary competition for playing time is now in Oakland and you have to believe Kitna will put up at least as good a season as a year ago and could be substantially better.
8.03 87. Greg Kellogg Winslow, Kellen CLE TE Sat Jul 7 9:04:10 p.m. ET 2007
Like Kitna, Winslow has slid down a lot of draft boards and I have to wonder why. His QB situation is no worse than a year ago and probably improved. He seems to be healthy and finished third in TE scoring last season and he did that on receptions and yards – the stats most likely to repeat. If he adds a couple TDs he could challenge Antonio Gates for the top spot this season.
9.10 106. Greg Kellogg Porter, Jerry OAK WR Sun Jul 8 5:30:12 p.m. ET 2007
It’s not surprising that Porter slipped this far. After landing in former coach Art Shell’s doghouse last year Porter only appeared in four games and started none. This after two straight 900+ yard seasons including one where he just missed 1,000 yards and 10 TDs (998 yards and 9 TDs in 2005). With Shell out of town and Randy Moss gone, Porter should step up as the team’s top receiver in 2007 and even on a bad team that should mean 1100 yards and 10 TDs.
10.03 111. Greg Kellogg Kennison, Eddie KCC WR Mon Jul 9 7:05:27 p.m. ET 2007
Many people seem to think that Damon Huard or Brodie Coyle at QB means that all KC will be able to do is hand the ball to Larry Johnson. I don’t. I believe KC will have to throw and Kennison has been their top receiver for three or four years. I suspect he will end up with around 1000 yards and seven TDs. Which makes him a value pick at this point in the draft.
Note: I do believe Kennison is a value pick in the 10th round. In a subpar year, he finished as the 89th ranked player at any position and the 32nd ranked WR. He is probably not the BEST value in this draft (Kitna might be) but he is a value pick.
11.10 130. Greg Kellogg Bush, Michael OAK RB ® Mon Jul 9 11:57:34 p.m. ET 2007
With the recent news that Dominic Rhodes has been suspended for four games, the starting job in Oakland will fall to either Bush or Lamont Jordan. Since Jordan has averaged 3.8 ypc as an Oakland starter (2 years), I don’t believe he is the answer. Bush would have been a mid-first round pick had he not broken his leg at the beginning of his senior season. I believe the talent is there but whether a leg with a steel rod in it can handle the pounding remains a viable question.
Note: I needed a RB that did not have a Week 6 bye. There wasn't a lot left but I was ecstatic to see a guy I feel could end up starting in Oakland fall to me at this pick.
12.03 135. Greg Kellogg Grossman, Rex CHI QB Tue Jul 10 12:33:01 p.m. ET 2007
While Grossman finished last season with very mixed results, he is a starter and did show some flashes of absolute brilliance - especially early in the year. When one considers this is really his second season due to injuries it should be expected that he will improve on last season's 3200 yards and 23 TDs. If he just cuts down on his picks I will be happy. And on Kitna's bye week, Chicago hosts Minnesota during Detroit's bye - a game that could turn into a shootout.
13.10 154. Greg Kellogg Williams, Reggie JAC WR Thu Jul 12 1:09:44 a.m. ET 2007
In filling out my roster I wanted to ensure any holes I had were plugged tightly. At WR two of my four picks had a week 8 bye which forced me to look at receivers that did not share that bye week. I settled on Williams because he faces the once tough Tampa Defense in week 8. I say once tough because in 2006 the Bucs gave up 26 passing TDs (next to worst in the league). I felt Williams was the best Jags receiver because he has improved his receptions and yards in each of his three seasons.
Note: I did consider Mike Furrey here (taken next) but felt that Williams has the potential to be the leading receiver for the Jags whereas Furrey will be moving to the slot and will not approach last year's numbers.
14.03 159. Greg Kellogg Lewis, Marcedes JAC TE Thu Jul 12 9:50:50 a.m. ET 2007
Lewis is a hunch play. With uncertainty at the quarterback position in Jacksonville , the tight end might have a bigger role than in years past. Lewis is entering his second season after a mostly forgettable rookie campaign. Jermaine Wiggens would probably have been a safer pick but I feel Lewis might surprise people this season and since he is just a backup tight end, I rolled the dice.
Note: Probably my worst selection. I totally spaced on the Wiggins signing. I didn't think Lewis would have any competition for the job. But it might still work out - just not as clear as when I made the pick.
15.10 178. Greg Kellogg Raiders, Oakland OAK Def Fri Jul 13 11:12:55 a.m. ET 2007
Most people will look at this pick as a mistake. I have to admit the Raiders do not score well in this scoring system. But Oakland does play good defense from an NFL perspective and if the offense can pick it up just a bit, I believe they can turn around their lack of scoring from previous fantasy seasons. The addition of Donovan Darius also influenced my decision.
16.03 183. Greg Kellogg Rackers, Neil ARI PK Fri Jul 13 5:15:17 p.m. ET 2007
Rackers was the 8th ranked PK last season and the top ranked guy in 2006. I believe the Cardinals will only improve in 2007 which should give Rackers even more opportunities.
Note: Yes, I have more Cardinals on my roster than I normally would like. But you can't really argue with the Boldin or Rackers pick where I took them. I know there has been some discussion of the James pick but I did get the two RBs I was targetting so I am not unhappy with the first two rounds.
17.10 202. Greg Kellogg Colts, Indianapolis IND Def Sat Jul 14 1:33:19 p.m. ET 2007
In this scoring systems turnovers will be king. Tony Dungy has always had good defenses until he got to the Colts. Last year the Colts digressed from the upwards trend they had shown the previous year. I believe that was more due to injuries than to Dungy's coaching. Look for a marked improvement from the Colts in 2007.
18.03 207. Greg Kellogg Crosby, Mason GBP PK ® Sun Jul 15 8:08:25 a.m. ET 2007
Why a rookie kicker? Because of his leg. Green Bay will move the ball with Brett Favre at the helm. But they may not score as many TDs because their running game is suspect. Enter rookie PK Crosby. Crosby already has a 60-yard field goal (without a tee) to his credit and just missed on a 65-yard attempt. Of his 200 collegiate kickoffs, 137 went for touchbacks with over half of them going out of the end zone.
+++
In any draft there are going to be picks you wish you would have made differently. I could have taken Gates in the third but I might have lost Boldin in doing so. Had I gotten Lynch in the third, then I would have not taken RBs in the fifth and sixth so that would have changed the complexion of my team as well. But you play the hand dealt you. When a player you covet goes before your pick, you make an adjustment and move on. I am not a huge proponent of ADP as some in this forum are. It is a tool to take into consideration but one should also be aware that every draft is different. Following ADP will lose you a lot of players you really want. I don't do that. I draft players where I think they have value - not where a lot of people I don't know thinks they have value.
This approach has worked well for me. In FanEx I have never finished last (though I came close one year). I have made the playoffs in three or four years and have won one championship and lost one championship game. I beat John Hansen the year I won (thank you Oronde Gadsden) and lost by less than 2 points to Brian Hulett the year I lost.
While I understand the points the critics of the James pick are making I disagree with them. I was more willing to risk losing Maroney than James. So I took James first. I projected the two equally but felt James was in the more secure situation and more likely to out-perform my projections. I did not value Jame a great deal more than Maroney. I just was more willing to lose Maroney than James.
ConstruxBoy
Kate's Daddy
Thanks Greg. Nothing wrong with your analysis at all, obviously. In fact, a lot of folks would probably agree that making sure your 1st round pick is "safe" is a good strategy.komments said:Sorry I am so late coming to the party. Here is my reasoning for Edge over Maroney (the guys I liked best at the position I picked). Edge is in his second year in Arizona and has a coach that has already stated he is going to use the run more if possible. I believe he will. Edge is an experienced veteran who will clearly be the feature back on his team. Maroney may have more talent at this point in their careers, but he shared carries as a rookie and he was nicked for much of the year. I felt Edge was the better (read more consistent and safer) of the two backs. The fact that I got both of them was a bonus.
If he liked Maroney more than the rest, then he took an awful risk waiting. If he liked someone else more than Maroney, then he unnecessarily missed out on them by not taking them first and Edge in the second. The only way the Edge pick makes sense is if he likes Edge so far and away better than any of the next five guys on his list, who he thinks are all relatively equal, that he wouldn't risk the very small chance that Edge got taken before his next pick just to get his favorite one.good point, but since he DID get Maroney at 2.3 (a guy who's often taken in the 1st) it came out okay . . .That's what I was thinking. If you're high on Edge, that's fine. But you're taking a risk with him. So take a safer option like Johnson or Henry in the first and then get Edge at 2.3.
bostonfred
Footballguy
Agreed. I said as much in the initial post - "The only way the Edge pick makes sense is if he likes Edge so far and away better than any of the next five guys on his list, who he thinks are all relatively equal, that he wouldn't risk the very small chance that Edge got taken before his next pick just to get his favorite one"It sounds like that is exactly what happened.Thanks Greg. Nothing wrong with your analysis at all, obviously. In fact, a lot of folks would probably agree that making sure your 1st round pick is "safe" is a good strategy.komments said:Sorry I am so late coming to the party. Here is my reasoning for Edge over Maroney (the guys I liked best at the position I picked). Edge is in his second year in Arizona and has a coach that has already stated he is going to use the run more if possible. I believe he will. Edge is an experienced veteran who will clearly be the feature back on his team. Maroney may have more talent at this point in their careers, but he shared carries as a rookie and he was nicked for much of the year. I felt Edge was the better (read more consistent and safer) of the two backs. The fact that I got both of them was a bonus.
If he liked Maroney more than the rest, then he took an awful risk waiting. If he liked someone else more than Maroney, then he unnecessarily missed out on them by not taking them first and Edge in the second. The only way the Edge pick makes sense is if he likes Edge so far and away better than any of the next five guys on his list, who he thinks are all relatively equal, that he wouldn't risk the very small chance that Edge got taken before his next pick just to get his favorite one.good point, but since he DID get Maroney at 2.3 (a guy who's often taken in the 1st) it came out okay . . .That's what I was thinking. If you're high on Edge, that's fine. But you're taking a risk with him. So take a safer option like Johnson or Henry in the first and then get Edge at 2.3.
duaneok66
Footballguy
a) First, thank you for taking the time and effort to post your analysis. I love reading the thoughts behind picks vs someone just posting their team and saying "How did I do??"b) The last paragraph was especially revealing. I was one of those questioning the order of your first two picks, but you offered a reasonable explanation for your selections
c) I admire you for thinking "outside the box". First and foremost, its "your team" and you shouldnt draft just to save face, you draft as you see fit because it is YOUR TEAM . . .
Kudos . . .
BigRed
Footballguy
Just thought maybe we should bump the thread on the draft that happened this year...
Greg I can't say I think your team is best, but the format of the league could be your saving grace. The weakness at QB will be your undoing though, I think.
Then again, I drafted Bledsoe last year, so there ya go.
Greg I can't say I think your team is best, but the format of the league could be your saving grace. The weakness at QB will be your undoing though, I think.
Then again, I drafted Bledsoe last year, so there ya go.
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