Fantasy defenses (1 Viewer)

[twistd]

This year is a terrific example of why you shouldn't take a defense early. Here are the preseason top ten from the FBG projections:

1.Chicago

2.Baltimore

3.New England

4.Miami

5.San Diego

6.Pittsburgh

7.Carolina

8.Jacksonville

9.Denver

10.Dallas

Here are the top ten defenses in my league now:

1.Minnesota

2.Pittsburgh

3.New England

4.Kansas City

5.Seattle

6.Dallas

7.Chicago

8.Detroit

9.Tampa Bay

10.Indianapolis

There are only four of the top ten defenses from the preseason rankings in the top ten now. The Bears have been a big disappointment, but at least they are in the top ten. Baltimore is 16th. New England is about where they were projected. Miami is 32nd, dead last. San Diego is 23rd. Pittsburgh is better than expected. Carolina is 29th. Jacksonville is 17th. Denver is 22nd. And Dallas is better than expected.

So, of the top ten preseason, two defenses performed better than expected. Those would be Pittsburgh and Dallas. New England is about where they were supposed to be. The Bears are still in the top ten but disappointing. The rest have been extremely disappointing. The real slide has to be Miami going from preseason #4 to dead last.

As far as the teams that have surprised, in a good way, Kansas City and Detroit have to top the list. Kansas City was ranked 23rd in the preseason rankings, while Detroit was 30th. I don't know if either team will still be in the top ten at the end of the season, but they have exceeded expectations so far.

This has been a really bad year to invest a high pick in a fantasy defense. Defenses are so inconsistent. Injuries can play a part, obviously the Bears D has been decimated by injury. But year to year it is just hard to predict how they will perform. All the better to wait on a defense in the draft. Then, once the season starts, wait for who emerges.

 

[Mordraken]

Another thing that adds to the inconsistency of defenses is opposing offenses. I don't know about your leagues, but Tennessee is getting picked up everywhere since their schedule looks so good from here on out. They face only 2 teams with a top 10 offense (discounting Oakland because I think last week was an abberation) and over the last 3 weks of the fantasy season (weeks 14-16) face bottom 10 offenses.

 

[The Man Who Met Andy Griffith]

Top 10 RB's

Westbrook

Ronnie Brown

Joseph Addai

Tomlinson

Jordan

Peterson

Marion Barber

Derrick Ward

Portis

Edgerrin James

Bolded were not in pre-season top 10.

Your point?

 

[The Man with the Plan]

It's much easier to find a top 10 fantasy defense on the waiver wire than a top 10 running back so you have to draft them early. You can put off drafting a defense until the last round you wouldn't do the same for a running back. In the end it's really not worth it to draft a team defense very high.

 

[twistd]

Top 10 RB's

Westbrook

Ronnie Brown

Joseph Addai

Tomlinson

Jordan

Peterson

Marion Barber

Derrick Ward

Portis

Edgerrin James

Bolded were not in pre-season top 10.

Your point?

I'm just showing that this year, probably more than year's in the past, investing a high pick in a defense was a waste. The point is that not only is it easy to pick up a solid D late in the draft, but if your's doesn't perform you could grab one off the waiver wire. Defenses are just really hard to predict.

 

[ChromeWeasel]

Top 10 RB's

Westbrook

Ronnie Brown

Joseph Addai

Tomlinson

Jordan

Peterson

Marion Barber

Derrick Ward

Portis

Edgerrin James

Bolded were not in pre-season top 10.

Your point?

I'm just showing that this year, probably more than year's in the past, investing a high pick in a defense was a waste. The point is that not only is it easy to pick up a solid D late in the draft, but if your's doesn't perform you could grab one off the waiver wire. Defenses are just really hard to predict.

They werent last year. Chicago and Baltimore were worthy of 3rd round picks. They were heads and shoulders above the competition, and were predicted to do exactly that.

 

[MrJimiT]

The Bears have been a big disappointment, but at least they are in the top ten.

While I agree with your premise, I actually believe it has a lot to do with league's individual scoring rules. For example, in two leagues that I am in, this is the top 10 in each:ChicagoMinnesotaDetroitPittsburghHoustonSeattleNew EnglandKansas CityIndianapolisDallasandMinnesotaDetroitChicagoPittsburghHoustonNew EnglandSeattleKansas CityDallasTennesseeI happen to be a Chicago owner in the league where they are atop the standings on an average per week scoring. I'm not all that dissappointed. But again, I think you're point about holding out until later in the draft to be a valid one.

 

[mcnabbmcnow]

I spent a relatively high pick on the Chargers Defense in two leagues and regret it. I mean, 30 points to the Chiefs at home, and over 350 yds and 3 TD's to Brett Favre? Come on. I already dropped them and picked up Arizona and the Titans. I tend to like defenses of teams that are clearly on the rise overall.

 

[Resident A]

Some buffoon in my league took the Chicago-D in the 5th round, that's right 5th round. The next 2 picks were A Peterson & L Coles for reference. This is not a guppy league either, he was convinced they were the "best player on the board" based on 2006.

There is just no benefit to taking any Defense earlier than Round 12. There is no way to accurately predict them.

 

[PahtyTom]

It's not even so much the fact that they are unpredictable, which they certainly are to some extent, but the fact that you can just pick up defenses and rotate them every week and achieve a great per game score average over the season. You can't do that with more important positions like running back throughout the year.