Fantasy Discussion/Rankings/Etc... CATCHER EDITION (1 Viewer)

[John Bender]

Trying to build my cheat sheets. Feel free to post your rankings, critique mine - let's discuss folks...

I posted these on my blog...

CATCHER:

1. Joe Mauer - Minnesota Twins -I guess this will be consensus number 1 pick for everyone. I understand position scarcity, but I'm still not paying first round pricing for this guy. It's amazing what an MVP season will do to make you forget that this guy was notorious for not living up to expectations in the power category. I obviously still think he could be the best at the position but wouldn't be surprised if McCann and VMart outhomered him this year. I'll let someone else draft him in Round 1 or early Round 2 and wait a bit.

MY PROJECTIONS: .329 BA, 14 HR, 86 RBI, 2 SB, 92 RUNS

2. Victor Martinez - Boston Red Sox -I actually like McCann more as a pure hitter, but I think VMart gets more opportunity in his lineup. He IS the guy in that lineup to hit behind Youkilis in my opinion. He IS the RBI guy, the clean up or 5th hitter. Playing for a contract, there's little not to like. If you are going to pay for Mauer, I don't see why you wouldn't just wait until Round 4 or so and look for VMart. His 2008 was an anamoly of a season plagued with injury issues. I think he's the centerpiece of power in the Boston lineup though. I like him to hands-down lead all catchers in RBIs.

MY PROJECTIONS: .309 BA, 22 HR, 111 RBI, 0 SB, 86 RUNS

3. Brian McCann - Atlanta Braves -Personally, he's my favorite catcher. He had eye trouble last year but still ended up only 2 shy of his 2008 Homerun total after spending some time on the DL while working on his vision issues. He is the cleanup hitter in Atlanta and will have plenty of opportunity to drive in 100 runs. If he plays all year, he will drive in 100 runs with no problems. I think he and Vmart are a lot closer to Mauer for fantasy purposes than he is being drafted as. I could easily flip flop McCann and VMart in my rankings

MY PROJECTIONS: .282 BA, 21 HR, 98 RBI, 4 SB, 66 RUNS

4. Matt Wieters - Baltimore Orioles - Ok I'll bite; I'm a Wieters fanboy through and through. I see big things for this guy. I see him being a consensus number 1 at the position 3 seasons from now. If this were a keeper league you were drafting for, I'd consider him even ahead of VMart. He is the Golden Child in Baltimore. Baltimore offense is a bit under-rated as well. They are awful because of their pitching, their hitting has some great pieces at the top of the lineup (Markakis and Roberts). If Wieters can find his way into the clean up or 5 hole in the lineup he can produce. I think there will be a few bumps in the road this year, but still worthy of a 4th overall ranking.

MY PROJECTIONS: .296 BA, 20 HR, 79 RBI, 1 SB, 74 RUNS

5. Jorge Posada - New York Yankees - I'm a little more concerned with Posada holding up all year. I'm hopeful he can get 500 bats, if he does he's worthy of this ranking but he's honestly a guy I personally may attempt to avoid through the first 10 rounds of a 12 team draft. He's going to get his time. I really don't see Jesus Montero challenging him at the catcher position but if Posada gets hurt they may attempt to work him in towards the later months. Big injury liability is the reason I'd stay away. My projections are based on 450 ABs which is really the most I can project him for at this point.

MY PROJECTIONS: .277 BA, 21 HR, 86 RBI, 0 SB, 59 RUNS

6. Miguel Montero - Arizona Diamondbacks - This is considering Montero is the everyday catcher. I think he is. I think he flourishes in this young lineup too. I'm happy to let guys like Russell Martin, Geovany Soto, Kurt Suzuki and Ryan Doumit pass me by and take Montero in later rounds. My projections are based on him getting 500 ABs which I think is very resonable when you consider he received 425 last year after playing back up to Chris Snyder for a few months.

MY PROJECTIONS: .272 BA, 19 HR, 72 RBI, 1 SB, 73 RUNS

7. Geovany Soto - Chicago Cubs -This is where I start to get worried about what's left to be honest. Soto has a higher upside than anyone left and I'm basing that on his .285 in 2008. I do think he is will be a batting average liability but can provide some pop for sure. I'm not sold on the Cubs, as a matter of fact, I see them having a VERY disappointing 2010. I think Soto suffers based on that. I rank him higher than Martin because of the upside. I think of all the catchers from this point on, Soto has the best chance to beat his projected numbers by 20% or more.

MY PROJECTIONS: .255 BA, 17 HR, 75 RBI, 0 SB, 64 RUNS

8. Russell Martin - Los Angeles Dodgers - His last 2 seasons have revealed a disturbing trend. In a time where he should be rounding out into his prime, he has gotten worse and really only has 1 solid season to show for it. The draw previously was the SBs he provided as a catcher. His SBs have dipped for 2 seasons now. I'm not impressed and he is another one of the "stay away from guys" on my cheat sheet. Tread lightly if you're targetting him.

MY PROJECTIONS: .266 BA, 8 HR, 53 RBI, 14 SB, 66 RUNS

9. Chris Iannetta - Colorado Rockies - I guess the only problem here is that he is everyone's sexy sleeper pick. Your leaguemates might feel the same way you do and plan on waiting for rounds 15/16 or later to draft him. I personally love his mechanics, swing, etc. I love his situation, solid lineup, good protection and a lot of opportunity to drive in runs. He's become the sexy sleeper in all the information I've heard so who knows what happens draft day with him.

MY PROJECTIONS: .259 BA, 20 HR, 71 RBI, 0 SB, 55 RUNS

10. Ryan Doumit - Pittsburgh Pirates - I hope he can play a full season. The Pirates will be bad, but Doumit will have lots of opportunities for ABs if he is healthy. I like him in a slight edge over Suzuki and Molina.

MY PROJECTIONS: .279 BA, 17 HR, 69 RBI, 4 SB, 59 RUNS

The Rest...

11. Bengie Molina

12. Kurt Suzuki

13. Mike Napoli

14. Yadier Molina

15. AJ Pierzynski

16. Kelly Shoppach

17. Jesus Flores

18. Jarrod Saltalamacchia

19. Carlos Ruiz

20. Dioner Navarro

 

[Sea Ropes]

I am still torn if I'd take Mauer in the late 1st (OBP league). Failing that, I'm targeting McCann if he gets to the 4th, Montero around the 10th, and then Napoli or Soto failing any of those. I'm agnostic on V-Mart, Posada and Wieters in re: to their ADP

 

[s_ezy]

what is the link to your blog?

 

[John Bender]

what is the link to your blog?

http://rototake.blogspot.com/It's not much at all. Infact, I doubt anyone reads it (just sent i out to those who requested the link), but I am a writer by trade and have been wanting to break into writing for one of the big fantasy baseball sites for a few years now so I am keeping a blog throughout the season to use as sort of a working clippings collection of my writings.

I know a few guys from Baseball Prospectus but so far have been asked to run some projections from them and nothing more than that. Eventually, I will get my own domain, I wanted to make sure I was committed to keeping it updated before wasting the money. Feel free to let me know what you think and pass the link along.

ETA: The formatting sucks too. I suck at website layout/design obviously.

 

[LOCO]

Wieters is the guy i am targeting. If not, hope for Montero.

still think a committee catchers could work:

soto/iannetta

 

[ScottNorwood]

Unless I get Mauer, Vmart or Mccann I'm waiting until the end to get my catcher.

 

[Sea Ropes]

Unless I get Mauer, Vmart or Mccann I'm waiting until the end to get my catcher.

What happened to that Johjima guy.

 

[boubucarow]

Unless I get Mauer, Vmart or Mccann I'm waiting until the end to get my catcher.

What happened to that Johjima guy.

Back to Japan.

 

[guru_007]

catcher is a position you need a little luck on, imho.

Guys that are drafting Mauer are hoping for a repeat of 2009, and it's not going to happen. Undoubtedly he will go to high in just about every draft. I'm not saying he will not produce and put up good numbers, but I doubt you get another MVP type year.

So, I mark Mauer off my draft sheets, because unless every guy in my league is drinking heavily and/or high, he will go much higher than he should.

I would love to get Martinez or McCann on my team. If they drop to me in middle rounds, I'll take a reach on one. But, more than likely in most drafts, these guys will go higher than I would like to draft a catcher too.

Having an unproven catcher in Weiters at #4 is too high, imo. He has 9 major league home runs, in over a half a season of pa's. He is a high ceiling guy, but I'd rather let someone else draft him if you're ranking him as #4.

Russell Martin at #8 seems low. I know 2009 was a disaster for him. But, Martin has a proven track record of good years behind him, is about to only turn 27, and has 20 sb potential. I'd rank him at #4 behind the big 3.

Bengie Molina is perenially undervalued, and seems to be on at least one of my teams just about every year. 20 homers, 80 rbi's, ~ 550 pa's. I'd rank him in the top 10 for sure, probably as high as 7.

Posada is a guy I downgrade every draft (and he usually proves me wrong). But, I can't imagine another 500+ pa for this guy. I think 400 would be about right, so every projection I read for him I take off 1/3. I have him outside my top 10 - around 12-15.

Interesting guy to me is Soto. Guy burned me hard last year, but it's really hard to overlook his potential. I'll give him the benefit of the doubt this year - I have him ranked #5. Good hitter, on a good offensive team - should produce a bunch of runs this year.

I've avoided Rockie catchers like the plague since the likes of Jayhawk Owens burning me with early draft picks for the glamour of hitting in Coors. I'll let someone else draft Ianetta this year, who will go ahead of Molina in probably every draft, and Molina will produce equal stats.

Doumit is pretty much a boom or bust pick. I like him this year....but playing for the Pirates, he'll have to drive himself in a lot to score runs.

just my

 

[Pnishthm]

Very well done. I think you may be sleeping on Suzuki a little mainly because he's a catcher that will likely be hitting high in the order and could very well get 550 plus ABs. Plus he's still growing as a player. I'm very big on at bats and Suzuki may lead all catchers in ABs in 2010. I'm with you for sure on Montero. If he can get to the 500 ABs range he will be a nice pick once the elite catchers are gone and you won't have to pay a high price for him.

 

[ScottNorwood]

Very well done. I think you may be sleeping on Suzuki a little mainly because he's a catcher that will likely be hitting high in the order and could very well get 550 plus ABs. Plus he's still growing as a player. I'm very big on at bats and Suzuki may lead all catchers in ABs in 2010. I'm with you for sure on Montero. If he can get to the 500 ABs range he will be a nice pick once the elite catchers are gone and you won't have to pay a high price for him.

I like Suzuki as well. I think you might get .275-20HRs out of him with decent R/RBI numbers.

 

[John Bender]

Ya, I'm just not really sure about Suzuki, he's really a guy I stay away from. He will be lucky to reach .280; he plays in a bad hitters park, and is surrounded by a subpar lineup.

He's a guy I'd let pass me by and go for Napoli or someone else. Just not feeling it, I've seen him hit many times and he's not a guy I like for fantasy purposes.

 

[Rebirtha]

6. Miguel Montero - Arizona Diamondbacks - This is considering Montero is the everyday catcher. I think he is. I think he flourishes in this young lineup too. I'm happy to let guys like Russell Martin, Geovany Soto, Kurt Suzuki and Ryan Doumit pass me by and take Montero in later rounds. My projections are based on him getting 500 ABs which I think is very resonable when you consider he received 425 last year after playing back up to Chris Snyder for a few months.

I've been in several mock drafts and Montero has been going ahead of every guy you listed in almost all of them. If you want him, you likely won' be able to wait.

 

[John Bender]

6. Miguel Montero - Arizona Diamondbacks - This is considering Montero is the everyday catcher. I think he is. I think he flourishes in this young lineup too. I'm happy to let guys like Russell Martin, Geovany Soto, Kurt Suzuki and Ryan Doumit pass me by and take Montero in later rounds. My projections are based on him getting 500 ABs which I think is very resonable when you consider he received 425 last year after playing back up to Chris Snyder for a few months.

I've been in several mock drafts and Montero has been going ahead of every guy you listed in almost all of them. If you want him, you likely won' be able to wait.

I haven't seen a lot of serious mocks yet, but I agree the post breakout hype on this guy has the potential to be out of control. I still like him as the 6th best catcher, I just doubt there will be enough value to select him as early as he'll go. Thanks for pointing that out, I'll have to check on some mock drafts in the next few days.

 

[Statorama]

Soto scares me a little. I tracked his progress up the ladder in the Cubs system, and he seemed like one of those .220/16HR types when advancing to the pros. "Suddenly" he breaks out with a monster year and falls off when testing gets a little more stringent. Better living through chemistry? I think so.

I'll look for a guy like McCann in the sixth round, but otherwise I'll make the Norwood move and pick one at the end of the draft (cross my fingers that Yadier Molina hits .290 or hope a Jeff Clement type breaks out).

 

[hooter311]

My preliminary Rankings:

1. Joe Mauer- Really nothing not to like here, he realized his power potential last year and even though his HR total will likely drop outside of the dome, he handles the bat like Fast Eddie Felson handles a pool stick.

2. Victor Martinez- If not for the monster slump mid summer he would be a #1B to Mauer. Guy plays almost as much 1B as Catcher and will be playing for a contract. So far he said he's not interested in negotiating during the season.

3. Brian McCann- Other analysts are making the drop off between McCann and Martinez a little too extreme. If he played in the AL he would he would strongly be considered at #2. I'm going to make it a point to have either McCann or Martinez on any of the NFBC leagues I have this year because I believe they will be the key to crushing 2 catcher deep leagues.

4. Russell Martin- Everyone is down on Martin but I think his floor is a 12/12 season which is almost the same as getting 20+ HRs from Martinez. He's going to be a value where he gets drafted because he won't be the #4 catcher off the board.

5. Kurt Suzuki- This guy just keeps getting better and bats higher in the lineup than any other catcher.

6. Matt Wieters- Will probably be the #1 Catcher in 2 years, maybe next year with the potential of the Baltimore lineup. He finished the season great.

7. Miguel Montero- I'm a little lower on this guy than everyone else, he probably won't fall to a spot I'd draft him.

8. Geovany Soto- One good MLB season, his minor league stats aren't anything to gawk at. A gamble here, as he could outpreform his draft spot by a few spots or falter big time.

9. Mike Napoli- Been a big fan of this guy for several seasons. Always a chance he gets one more game a week and puts up 25 HRs to go with 3-5 steals.

10. Jorge Posada- Not high on Posada at all after owning him on several teams last year. Analysts having him ranked at #4 or #5 are out of their minds. Age will prevent him from catching full time without too much stress on his knees and no real reason for the Yankees to bat him over Nick Johnson at DH when he is off.

11. Bengie Molina- Guy has been as consistent as they come the past few seasons batting in the middle of the order. I think the Giants bat him a couple spots down in the lineup so numbers should come down some.

12. Chris Iannetta- Tons of potential, but has always been streaky. Olivo is going to be a bigger threat than Torrealba was last season.

13. Ryan Doumit- The huge season as been knocking at the door the past couple years, but he isn't getting any younger and will soon be on the wrong side of 30. Very solid option, just not sure if the upside is there anymore.

14. AJ Pierzynski- And if it isn't Mr. No Upside Whatsoever. Consistent. And you could do a lot worse. Grab this guy late if a long run drains all your other options. Any injuries and Flowers could take the job and run with it.

15. Carlos Santana- Might have to wait till June 1st, but this guy could end up being what Wieters was supposed to be last season.

 

[cheese]

Unless I get Mauer, Vmart or Mccann I'm waiting until the end to get my catcher.

Exactly my take. Huge dropoff at catcher this year. I will probably end up with Doumit or Ianetta.

 

[John Bender]

I just don't get the Suzuki love. I really intend to stay far away from him but I'm definitely in the minority, that's for sure.

 

[Pnishthm]

I just don't get the Suzuki love. I really intend to stay far away from him but I'm definitely in the minority, that's for sure.

Not real sure what's not to like...2009 stats .274 15 HRs 8 SBs 88 RBI 74 R with 570 AT BATS. 570 ABs from a catcher posisition is HUGEThose numbers alone put him around the Montero range in your projection rankings and that's at #6Suzuki is only 26 and seems to be improving. He's at that age where the power numbers seem to rise and he seems to be following that trend by his 15 HRs last year as opposed to 7 the previous two. I don't think anyone is saying that he's the second coming of Mike Piazza, but for a catcher that you can likely land in double didgit rounds or close to that, he's a pretty good option.Again, I think you did a great job on your rankings...just trying to bring you over to the dark side on Suzuki

 

[John Bender]

Hey no problem.

Sometimes in fantasy I tend to just find guys I like and guys I don't. I've done a lot of research on Suzuki and just don't see the potential above and beyond what he's done.

I guess I'm being ignorant and I can't look at it more objectively; definitely something to look at in Spring Training. Appreciate the back and forth though. I love it and love getting other perspectives on this stuff.

Posting the rest of my rankings this weekend here and on my blog if anyone cares.

 

[MAC_32]

If you can get a stud without over paying too much, do it. Mauer's a top 30 pick, but not top 15 which is the price I'm seeing. Target McCann and Martinez in round 3.

If you miss make getting an upside prospect a priority, but, again, don't over pay...too much. I'm taking the cheapest of Wieters, Montero, Napoli, and Soto.

Only settle for the bottom of the barrel if your league over values catchers...especially if it's a 2 C league. If you're stuck set your eyes on Ianetta and Doumit with a watchful eye on prospects like Avila, Santana, and Flowers. Fat Molina's postponing Posey until at least July, the *******.

Something I've noticed over the years is that if your drafted C doesn't pan out you can't find a replacement whereas if your drafted OF or P doesn't pan out you can find someone else who will do something. Make finding a good catcher a priority.