John Bender
Footballguy
These are all on my blog: rototake.blogspot.com
Let's get some good discussion going...
1 - Chase Utley - Philadelphia Phillies - Kind of a no brainer here. He is going to have Howard hitting behind him, play 81 games in a band box, great leadoff guys ahead of him, and play for a high caliber offensive team. He could easily repeat his 2009 numbers. I think he could accidently score 110 runs in this lineup. The more I look at his situation, the more I like him. I haven't seen many mock drafts, but he seems to be going around mid to late Round 1. I would absolutely select him ahead of Holliday or Lincecum which puts him more towards pick 6 or 7 overall. Such little downside, a safer pick then Kemp or Howard as well. Draft him with confidence.
MY PROJECTIONS: .285 BA, 30 HR, 98 RBI, 16 SB, 110 RUNS
2 - Ian Kinsler - Texas Rangers - Lot of options at 2nd overall here and I narrowly put Kinsler ahead of Cano. I think you have to worry about the batting average. His .319 average of 2008 appears to be more of a fluke than the .253 BA last year. He will probably round out in the middle. He has become an injury risk though. If he's available around the end of Round 2, I may consider waiting for a second basemen further down the list to hopefully reduce the risk. He was a fireball out of the gate in 2009 and fell off a bit as his hammy flared up through the stretch run. He has 2nd best potential but he also has a higher risk factor than anyone else in the top 5. Proceed with caution. My projections were very tough to figure on this one and admittedly, may be way off.
MY PROJECTIONS: .277 BA, 27 HR, 82 RBI, 22 SB, 100 RUNS
3 - Robinson Cano - New York Yankees - Another guy I probably have higher than anyone else. I've just not seen enough mock drafts to this point to really tell where he is being gauged by others, but he's another second basemen that's in a great situation. He will be in a lineup filled with All Star hitters, have every opportunity to see great pitches, isn't a huge injury risk, and has no danger of losing his job. I truly believe his 2009 season was more in line with what he can do when comparing it to his disappointing 2008. He's only 27 and he plays for the Yankees - what's not to like? This will be the guy I'm targetting at 2B. I could easily see folks selecting Brandon Phillips, Dustin Pedroia and even Aaron Hill before him and I'll be happy to wait on Cano.
MY PROJECTIONS: .307 BA, 20 HR, 80 RBI, 3 SB, 99 RUNS
4 - Brandon Phillips - Cincinnati Reds - You won't find a bigger Phillips hater out there, but when I crunch the neighbors and really project things out, I guess I have to slot him at 4th overall. I've heard a lot about him recently and really, when you look at things, he's not too far off from Ian Kinsler who I ranked at 2. I think the volatility factor is too great with him though. Whenever possible, I like to reduce the risk factor and go with proven selections when drafting. I think Phillips will be far more valuable in a roto league than a head 2 head league as well. I put him in that same class as Ryan Howard where in a head 2 head league, you may think twice about selecting him here. He will absolutely obliterate all of your stat categories some weeks and he will be a beast during other weeks. The end numbers are respectable enough to put him 4th in a roto league though. In a head 2 head league, I would stay away completely.
MY PROJECTIONS: .269 BA, 19 HR, 89 RBI, 24 SB, 88 RUNS
5 - Aaron Hill - Toronto Blue Jays - I guess I'll bite and put him in my top 5 based on his career year in 2009. I actually do think his power is for real. You could also make an easy case to swap him and Brian Roberts here depending on what category you need more because Hill isn't going to swipe a lot of bags, and Roberts isn't going to hit too many homeruns. While I don't see him reaching .300 BA, I do see him getting to just about 30 homeruns again. I've looked into the sabremetrics on Hill and think there is no reason for the power not to stick around. If your league counts OPS, I also like him for a small bump up in the rankings. Draft for power, anything else will be a bonus.
MY PROJECTIONS: .282 BA, 29 HR, 100 RBI, 2 SB, 91 RUNS
6 - Brian Roberts - Baltimore Orioles - Not an Orioles fan, but he is one of my favorite players to watch. As I touched on in the Hill write up: if you need SB's you can bump him up a spot or two and I wouldn't hate you for it. I still think he is a year or two away from the slow down and will put up his usual numbers. If you wait on a 2nd basement and draft Roberts, you know what you are going to get. I find there to be little risk with him even at the age of 32. Yes his SB line did dip by 10 from '08 to '09 but I think he rounds it off somewhere in the middle.
MY PROJECTIONS: .290 BA, 12 HR, 70 RBI, 34 SB, 106 RUNS
7 - Dustin Pedroia - Boston Red Sox - I like him as a real life player way more than I do as a fantasy player. I think the team he plays on and how he plays the game has caused us to overrate him for fantasy purposes. I don't think he's going to hurt you in any one category, but I think if you're shooting for a guy that could way outproduce his projections, Pedroia is not that guy. He's a great selection for the risk averse though. I would pencil him in for his average over the past 2 years, but I am slightly concerned with the new defensively focused Red Sox facelift, that he may be hurt with no Jason Bay hitting behind him.
MY PROJECTIONS: .304 BA, 13 HR, 69 RBI, 28 SB, 106 RUNS
8 - Jose Lopez - Seattle Mariners - I would debate drafting him 5th or 6th overall at second base because I think his breakout potential is higher than anyone on this list. He suffered from a brutally unlucky BABIP over the first half of last season which really dragged his final numbers down. He is 26, on a much improved team and will be given the opportunity to shine. Beware though - from what I've heard he is a popular "sleeper" pick to outperform his ADP and you don't want to go too far with overpaying for him. I find 2nd base to be VERY deep this year. Unfortunately, I think you're going to have to draft him too early to get him on your team. Look out though, I see a big spike in numbers coming and him rounding into top fantasy form. He will be hitting behind Ichiro and Figgins as well - LOTS of RBI potential here
MY PROJECTIONS: .295 BA, 23 HR, 104 RBI, 7 SB, 75 RUNS
9 - Ben Zobrist - Tampa Bay Rays - I'm just not as impressed with his 2009 campaign as everyone else. I'd like to see it happen for another season. The one thing I do look at as a positive is his ability to get on base. He was a world beater in the OBP category going all the way back to the minor leagues and posted a .405 OBP last year on the big squad. Will he reach last years numbers? No. Will he put up a respectable and manageable statline? I think so.
MY PROJECTIONS: .280 BA, 18 HR, 79 RBI, 14 SB, 80 RUNS
10 - Dan Uggla - Florida Marlins - Not much to say. Draft for power only. If you already have plenty of power at this point in your draft, look more towards a Howie Kendrick type 2nd basemen. I don't see any problem with him reaching 26 or 27 homeruns again but his other statistics may get a bit maddening to deal with. Give him a nice bump in an OPS league though.
MY PROJECTIONS: .251 BA, 28 HR, 90 RBI, 1 SB
The Rest...
11 - Gordon Beckham - Love the potential
12 - Howie Kendrick - Hate the risk
13 - Rickie Weeks - He will bounce back nicely. Could be Top 10
14 - Clint Barmes - If you end up with Barmes as your starting 2B, you're in trouble
15 and beyond: Martin Prado, Orlando Hudson, Jeff Baker, Kelly Johhnson, Mark Ellis, Alberto Callaspo
Let's get some good discussion going...
1 - Chase Utley - Philadelphia Phillies - Kind of a no brainer here. He is going to have Howard hitting behind him, play 81 games in a band box, great leadoff guys ahead of him, and play for a high caliber offensive team. He could easily repeat his 2009 numbers. I think he could accidently score 110 runs in this lineup. The more I look at his situation, the more I like him. I haven't seen many mock drafts, but he seems to be going around mid to late Round 1. I would absolutely select him ahead of Holliday or Lincecum which puts him more towards pick 6 or 7 overall. Such little downside, a safer pick then Kemp or Howard as well. Draft him with confidence.
MY PROJECTIONS: .285 BA, 30 HR, 98 RBI, 16 SB, 110 RUNS
2 - Ian Kinsler - Texas Rangers - Lot of options at 2nd overall here and I narrowly put Kinsler ahead of Cano. I think you have to worry about the batting average. His .319 average of 2008 appears to be more of a fluke than the .253 BA last year. He will probably round out in the middle. He has become an injury risk though. If he's available around the end of Round 2, I may consider waiting for a second basemen further down the list to hopefully reduce the risk. He was a fireball out of the gate in 2009 and fell off a bit as his hammy flared up through the stretch run. He has 2nd best potential but he also has a higher risk factor than anyone else in the top 5. Proceed with caution. My projections were very tough to figure on this one and admittedly, may be way off.
MY PROJECTIONS: .277 BA, 27 HR, 82 RBI, 22 SB, 100 RUNS
3 - Robinson Cano - New York Yankees - Another guy I probably have higher than anyone else. I've just not seen enough mock drafts to this point to really tell where he is being gauged by others, but he's another second basemen that's in a great situation. He will be in a lineup filled with All Star hitters, have every opportunity to see great pitches, isn't a huge injury risk, and has no danger of losing his job. I truly believe his 2009 season was more in line with what he can do when comparing it to his disappointing 2008. He's only 27 and he plays for the Yankees - what's not to like? This will be the guy I'm targetting at 2B. I could easily see folks selecting Brandon Phillips, Dustin Pedroia and even Aaron Hill before him and I'll be happy to wait on Cano.
MY PROJECTIONS: .307 BA, 20 HR, 80 RBI, 3 SB, 99 RUNS
4 - Brandon Phillips - Cincinnati Reds - You won't find a bigger Phillips hater out there, but when I crunch the neighbors and really project things out, I guess I have to slot him at 4th overall. I've heard a lot about him recently and really, when you look at things, he's not too far off from Ian Kinsler who I ranked at 2. I think the volatility factor is too great with him though. Whenever possible, I like to reduce the risk factor and go with proven selections when drafting. I think Phillips will be far more valuable in a roto league than a head 2 head league as well. I put him in that same class as Ryan Howard where in a head 2 head league, you may think twice about selecting him here. He will absolutely obliterate all of your stat categories some weeks and he will be a beast during other weeks. The end numbers are respectable enough to put him 4th in a roto league though. In a head 2 head league, I would stay away completely.
MY PROJECTIONS: .269 BA, 19 HR, 89 RBI, 24 SB, 88 RUNS
5 - Aaron Hill - Toronto Blue Jays - I guess I'll bite and put him in my top 5 based on his career year in 2009. I actually do think his power is for real. You could also make an easy case to swap him and Brian Roberts here depending on what category you need more because Hill isn't going to swipe a lot of bags, and Roberts isn't going to hit too many homeruns. While I don't see him reaching .300 BA, I do see him getting to just about 30 homeruns again. I've looked into the sabremetrics on Hill and think there is no reason for the power not to stick around. If your league counts OPS, I also like him for a small bump up in the rankings. Draft for power, anything else will be a bonus.
MY PROJECTIONS: .282 BA, 29 HR, 100 RBI, 2 SB, 91 RUNS
6 - Brian Roberts - Baltimore Orioles - Not an Orioles fan, but he is one of my favorite players to watch. As I touched on in the Hill write up: if you need SB's you can bump him up a spot or two and I wouldn't hate you for it. I still think he is a year or two away from the slow down and will put up his usual numbers. If you wait on a 2nd basement and draft Roberts, you know what you are going to get. I find there to be little risk with him even at the age of 32. Yes his SB line did dip by 10 from '08 to '09 but I think he rounds it off somewhere in the middle.
MY PROJECTIONS: .290 BA, 12 HR, 70 RBI, 34 SB, 106 RUNS
7 - Dustin Pedroia - Boston Red Sox - I like him as a real life player way more than I do as a fantasy player. I think the team he plays on and how he plays the game has caused us to overrate him for fantasy purposes. I don't think he's going to hurt you in any one category, but I think if you're shooting for a guy that could way outproduce his projections, Pedroia is not that guy. He's a great selection for the risk averse though. I would pencil him in for his average over the past 2 years, but I am slightly concerned with the new defensively focused Red Sox facelift, that he may be hurt with no Jason Bay hitting behind him.
MY PROJECTIONS: .304 BA, 13 HR, 69 RBI, 28 SB, 106 RUNS
8 - Jose Lopez - Seattle Mariners - I would debate drafting him 5th or 6th overall at second base because I think his breakout potential is higher than anyone on this list. He suffered from a brutally unlucky BABIP over the first half of last season which really dragged his final numbers down. He is 26, on a much improved team and will be given the opportunity to shine. Beware though - from what I've heard he is a popular "sleeper" pick to outperform his ADP and you don't want to go too far with overpaying for him. I find 2nd base to be VERY deep this year. Unfortunately, I think you're going to have to draft him too early to get him on your team. Look out though, I see a big spike in numbers coming and him rounding into top fantasy form. He will be hitting behind Ichiro and Figgins as well - LOTS of RBI potential here
MY PROJECTIONS: .295 BA, 23 HR, 104 RBI, 7 SB, 75 RUNS
9 - Ben Zobrist - Tampa Bay Rays - I'm just not as impressed with his 2009 campaign as everyone else. I'd like to see it happen for another season. The one thing I do look at as a positive is his ability to get on base. He was a world beater in the OBP category going all the way back to the minor leagues and posted a .405 OBP last year on the big squad. Will he reach last years numbers? No. Will he put up a respectable and manageable statline? I think so.
MY PROJECTIONS: .280 BA, 18 HR, 79 RBI, 14 SB, 80 RUNS
10 - Dan Uggla - Florida Marlins - Not much to say. Draft for power only. If you already have plenty of power at this point in your draft, look more towards a Howie Kendrick type 2nd basemen. I don't see any problem with him reaching 26 or 27 homeruns again but his other statistics may get a bit maddening to deal with. Give him a nice bump in an OPS league though.
MY PROJECTIONS: .251 BA, 28 HR, 90 RBI, 1 SB
The Rest...
11 - Gordon Beckham - Love the potential
12 - Howie Kendrick - Hate the risk
13 - Rickie Weeks - He will bounce back nicely. Could be Top 10
14 - Clint Barmes - If you end up with Barmes as your starting 2B, you're in trouble
15 and beyond: Martin Prado, Orlando Hudson, Jeff Baker, Kelly Johhnson, Mark Ellis, Alberto Callaspo
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