"Fantasy Football Pro Forecast" magazine (1 Viewer)

[Raider Nation]

This magazine

This has always been one of my favorite preseason rags, along with the FBG mag of course. Easy-to-read format, usually good information, nice mock draft section with the "industry experts" commenting on each of their picks, etc. Very solid all around. I just picked up their '08 version.

Their sleepers section nearly made my head explode. Here are some of their big sleepers.

(Seriously. I'm not making this up. Go look for yourself.)

- Matt Leinart

- Michael Turner

- Jonathan Stewart

- Matt Forte (in their defense, the mag was published prior to Benson's release)

- Rudi Johnson

- Kevin Smith

- Dwayne Bowe

- Reggie Williams (this after a 10-TD season, mind you)

- Reggie Bush

- Brandon Jacobs (LOL... I SWEAR I'm telling the truth!)

- Thomas Jones

- Donovan McNabb

- Santonio Holmes

- Chris Chambers

- Isaac Bruce

- Vince Young

- Santana Moss

- Andre Johnson

Am I being too critical here, or is it positively absurd for these guys to be considered "sleepers"...?

You want a sleeper? Drew Carter is a sleeper. Roy Hall is a sleeper. Xavier Omon is a sleeper.

 

[FUBAR]

Remember the audience, the only player who really isn't a possible sleeper in the "mainstream" is AJ - and he might be undervalued.

 

[Raider Nation]

Remember the audience, the only player who really isn't a possible sleeper in the "mainstream" is AJ - and he might be undervalued.

Help me understand what you're saying.The "average" fantasy football fan would not be aware that most guys on that list are closer to being "studs" than "sleepers?"

 

[TheNext0]

Too many people incorrectly use the term sleeper to identify an undervalued player. I agree with your rationale.

 

[cheatsheetwarroom]

Too many people incorrectly use the term sleeper to identify an undervalued player.

How would you define it?

 

[Raider Nation]

Too many people incorrectly use the term sleeper to identify an undervalued player.

How would you define it?

If I may answer that...An undervalued player is, well, an undervalued player. A sleeper is a guy who is WAY under everyone's radar.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

This magazine

This has always been one of my favorite preseason rags, along with the FBG mag of course. Easy-to-read format, usually good information, nice mock draft section with the "industry experts" commenting on each of their picks, etc. Very solid all around. I just picked up their '08 version.

Their sleepers section nearly made my head explode. Here are some of their big sleepers.

(Seriously. I'm not making this up. Go look for yourself.)

- Matt Leinart

- Michael Turner

- Jonathan Stewart

- Matt Forte (in their defense, the mag was published prior to Benson's release)

- Rudi Johnson

- Kevin Smith

- Dwayne Bowe

- Reggie Williams (this after a 10-TD season, mind you)

- Reggie Bush

- Brandon Jacobs (LOL... I SWEAR I'm telling the truth!)

- Thomas Jones

- Donovan McNabb

- Santonio Holmes

- Chris Chambers

- Isaac Bruce

- Vince Young

- Santana Moss

- Andre Johnson

Am I being too critical here, or is it positively absurd for these guys to be considered "sleepers"...?

You want a sleeper? Drew Carter is a sleeper. Roy Hall is a sleeper. Xavier Omon is a sleeper.

Turner, Stewart, Forte, Smith, Bowe, Reg Williams, Holmes...those are not household names. Other people besides the 50 of us in the off season Shark Pool buy that magazine...and believe it or not some people will actually take that mag and feel they are ready for their local redraft league.

 

[FUBAR]

Remember the audience, the only player who really isn't a possible sleeper in the "mainstream" is AJ - and he might be undervalued.

Help me understand what you're saying.The "average" fantasy football fan would not be aware that most guys on that list are closer to being "studs" than "sleepers?"

At the least, they're undervalued. Aside from AJ, I wouldn't consider any of these guys FF studs. Some have that potential.Your definition of sleeper isn't the only one people use.

 

[cheatsheetwarroom]

An undervalued player is, well, an undervalued player. A sleeper is a guy who is WAY under everyone's radar.

I would agree with that, still it all boils down to relativity (e.g. exactly HOW FAR under everyone's radar?). When I think about a 'sleeper', I think of a player who I think will be available well after my projected draft spot for him (and for that position) has passed. In other words if I think that Donte Stallworth is the #12 WR overall, but think that he will be available even after the 22nd WR is off the boards, then I'd say Donte is a sleeper. In this example, the difference between my perceived production and projection is 10 draft spots. Does that justify the title of 'sleeper'. I prefer to think of 'sleeper' in a loose fashion: "A player who you may be able to grab for a great bargain." I think that knowing who these types of sleepers are is more beneficial of knowing one or two 'extreme' sleepers.

 

[Jeff Tefertiller]

Including Andre Johnson is puzzling to me. He has an ADP of WR5 on MFL Redrafts. Yes, he can outproduce that draft spot, but the value is not overwhelming either.

 

[Tanner9919]

Remember the audience, the only player who really isn't a possible sleeper in the "mainstream" is AJ - and he might be undervalued overvalued..

fixed.

 

[comfortably numb]

An undervalued player is, well, an undervalued player. A sleeper is a guy who is WAY under everyone's radar.

I would agree with that, still it all boils down to relativity (e.g. exactly HOW FAR under everyone's radar?). When I think about a 'sleeper', I think of a player who I think will be available well after my projected draft spot for him (and for that position) has passed. In other words if I think that Donte Stallworth is the #12 WR overall, but think that he will be available even after the 22nd WR is off the boards, then I'd say Donte is a sleeper. In this example, the difference between my perceived production and projection is 10 draft spots. Does that justify the title of 'sleeper'. I prefer to think of 'sleeper' in a loose fashion: "A player who you may be able to grab for a great bargain." I think that knowing who these types of sleepers are is more beneficial of knowing one or two 'extreme' sleepers.

I think this rationale is where the term sleeper has gotten mixed up.I personally consider a sleeper, someone who comes out of nowhere to contribute in a good way on your team.I would view your thoughts on Stallworth as ADP value play.Good value.Everyone knows who he is, and if he comes out and hits 1000 and 6 TD's, I don't think the FF world would be SHOCKED.When Colston came out and had his season, he was a sleeper, when Gates came out and had his season, sleeper Welker...sleeper, Graham...sleeper, etc...I wouldn't consider and of the guys on this list a sleeper.Thats just always been my feelings on sleepers.IMO, sleepers hardly get drafted in your basic 12 team league

 

[cheatsheetwarroom]

An undervalued player is, well, an undervalued player. A sleeper is a guy who is WAY under everyone's radar.

I would agree with that, still it all boils down to relativity (e.g. exactly HOW FAR under everyone's radar?). When I think about a 'sleeper', I think of a player who I think will be available well after my projected draft spot for him (and for that position) has passed. In other words if I think that Donte Stallworth is the #12 WR overall, but think that he will be available even after the 22nd WR is off the boards, then I'd say Donte is a sleeper. In this example, the difference between my perceived production and projection is 10 draft spots. Does that justify the title of 'sleeper'. I prefer to think of 'sleeper' in a loose fashion: "A player who you may be able to grab for a great bargain." I think that knowing who these types of sleepers are is more beneficial of knowing one or two 'extreme' sleepers.

I think this rationale is where the term sleeper has gotten mixed up.I personally consider a sleeper, someone who comes out of nowhere to contribute in a good way on your team.I would view your thoughts on Stallworth as ADP value play.Good value.Everyone knows who he is, and if he comes out and hits 1000 and 6 TD's, I don't think the FF world would be SHOCKED.When Colston came out and had his season, he was a sleeper, when Gates came out and had his season, sleeper Welker...sleeper, Graham...sleeper, etc...I wouldn't consider and of the guys on this list a sleeper.Thats just always been my feelings on sleepers.IMO, sleepers hardly get drafted in your basic 12 team league

You're probably right that the term is over-used and mis-applied.

 

[GroveDiesel]

Agreed, the term sleeper is often mis-used. To say that a guy like Andre Johnson being possibly undervalued by a few spots is the same as guys like Marques Colston or Anquan Boldin their rookie years is crazy.

To me, a sleeper is a guy that average leagues will have drafted at the very end of the draft or perhaps not at all but could end up being a top producer at his position.

 

[masterful]

Very solid all around.

WTF? Look at their overall rankings on page 44.TEs Witten and Gonzalez at 13th and 19th OVERALLRBs James and Jones-Drew at 56th and 59thIt's cool to have different rankings, but it's completely unreasonable to put TEs that high (especially this year when they are so deep).Also, 75% of each team page is stats and schedule. There are more words in an Iron Chef article than on one of their team pages.I used to love Pro Forecast, but it hasn't gotten any better since the mid '90s. Looking at the competition, it is horrible and gets by solely on name recognition.

 

[The Man with the Plan]

Brandon Marshall 2007 - sleeper

Brandon Marshall 2008 - not a sleeper

I think it mostly comes down to draft position.

 

[Duckboy]

To me, a sleeper is a guy that average leagues will have drafted at the very end of the draft or perhaps not at all but could end up being a top producer at his position.

I agree with this, for the most part. I'd actually call those guys the deep sleepers (last couple rounds, mostly gets a "who?" - examples this year might be a Roy Hall or a Jason Hill).To me, sleepers are guys drafted after the starters and primary backups (so normally after about 20 QB/TE, 40 RB, 50 WR) that you expect to be at least starter material. Will change as the season gets closer, but for now, guys like Matt Leinart, Justin Fargas, Bryant Johnson, Dustin Keller might fit the bill. These are the guys most would not expect to be top 10 QB/TE or top 20 RB/WR, but it wouldn't be a complete shock if they were.

 

[Tub of Goo]

WTF? Look at their overall rankings on page 44.TEs Witten and Gonzalez at 13th and 19th OVERALLRBs James and Jones-Drew at 56th and 59thIt's cool to have different rankings, but it's completely unreasonable to put TEs that high (especially this year when they are so deep).Also, 75% of each team page is stats and schedule. There are more words in an Iron Chef article than on one of their team pages.I used to love Pro Forecast, but it hasn't gotten any better since the mid '90s. Looking at the competition, it is horrible and gets by solely on name recognition.

Besides the sleeper article being mostly nonsense, these rankings look like a third-grader did them. Terrell Owens at #6 overall? - No possible downside with a WR that will turn 35 this year. Pro Forecast also seems to hate all RBs as they only have 21 in their top 70 players (yet they have 8 TEs in the top 65 picks)? And to have two TEs in the top 20 when Gates never was picked that high in the years he was destroying everybody at the position is really crazy. This year you can draft Ben Watson in the last 1 or 2 rounds of your draft and they suggest I reach to get Gonzalez? Admittedly he is ONLY 32 years old this season and will be playing with one of the worst QBs in the game. I am starting to see the logic in all of this. Wait at RB, grab TEs early. When in doubt, choose the oldest guys in the league way before anyone else. What could go wrong with this plan? Suffice it to say, I will likely be throwing this mag in one of the nearby California fires currently ravaging my state.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

To me, a sleeper is a guy that average leagues will have drafted at the very end of the draft or perhaps not at all but could end up being a top producer at his position.

I agree with this, for the most part. I'd actually call those guys the deep sleepers (last couple rounds, mostly gets a "who?" - examples this year might be a Roy Hall or a Jason Hill).To me, sleepers are guys drafted after the starters and primary backups (so normally after about 20 QB/TE, 40 RB, 50 WR) that you expect to be at least starter material. Will change as the season gets closer, but for now, guys like Matt Leinart, Justin Fargas, Bryant Johnson, Dustin Keller might fit the bill. These are the guys most would not expect to be top 10 QB/TE or top 20 RB/WR, but it wouldn't be a complete shock if they were.

This is pretty much the correct answer."Undervalued players" are ones that should be described as being drafted in most leagues but that are very capable of outperforming their draft spot (as far as their value). That is a RB40 that can finish in the Top 20. "Sleepers" are guys that are late round flyers or not even drafted (Colston 2 yrs ago, Bowe last year) in some leagues but can wind up in your starting lineup. Derek Anderson is another.

 

[noneother]

devil advocate: couldn't sleeper be "someone who greatly exceeds expectations".... Randy Moss and Brady could in some circles be considered sleepers in 07...

just sayin...

here I am not saying it is wrong, sleeper seems more to be "assumed marginal talent that emerges to all pro level"

Gado 06? sleeper? or overachiever?

 

[Tigerbot Hesh]

The definition of sleeper is built around where that player should (and will be) drafted. Wes Welker last year (late round or not drafted)= sleeper. Wes Welker this year (5th-6th round)= not a sleeper.

 

[puckalicious]

I've always loosely considered WR's and RB's that are projected outside the top 25, but finish in the top 10 to be sleepers. Doesn't really apply to other positions.

 

[a_troll00]

I would say a sleeper is a player that is available rounds 8-10+ and will drastically outperform their draft position.

 

[Tenacious D]

A sleeper is a guy who comes out of no where. Marques Colston his rookie year was the textbook example of a sleeper. Andre Johnson can be undervalued, but he can't be a sleeper. AJ achieving top 10 status wouldn't be a completely unexpected performance. Similarly, a Day One rookie RB on a team with a need there wouldn't be a sleeper. While he doesn't have the history of success (like an AJ) to make a top performance completely unexpected, he does have the pedigree and situation. Now Marcus Thomas can be touted as a sleeper if you think he steps in to the Michael Turner role or lucks out via injury.

I don't know about the rest of the content in that mag, but the IDP guy sure is a genius.

 

[toonarmy]

For ####s and giggles, a couple of years ago I did a comparison of various mag pre-season rankings from the previous year and compared them to what actually happened.

The mags were FBG, FFPF and a few others including ESPN and PFW (also I included my own rankings). What I found will probably come as no surprise to any of you, i.e. they were much of a muchness.

Each positional ranking correlated to the previous year's finish within a range of 0.75-0.8 (for those who haven't heard of statistical correlation, 1 is a perfect correlation, 0 is no correlation, and -1 is a perfect inverted correlation), i.e. the pre-season rankings pretty much mirrored who did well the previous year.

As far as correct predictions for the following year, they were all within the range 0.2-0.35 (I actually came out top for RBs, which pretty much tells you all you need to know).

In other words, don't expect too much from pre-season rankings - after all, the real value in sites such as FBG is the provision of up-to-date in-season info

 

[Raider Nation]

This magazine

This has always been one of my favorite preseason rags, along with the FBG mag of course. Easy-to-read format, usually good information, nice mock draft section with the "industry experts" commenting on each of their picks, etc. Very solid all around. I just picked up their '08 version.

Their sleepers section nearly made my head explode. Here are some of their big sleepers.

(Seriously. I'm not making this up. Go look for yourself.)

- Matt Leinart

- Michael Turner

- Jonathan Stewart

- Matt Forte (in their defense, the mag was published prior to Benson's release)

- Rudi Johnson

- Kevin Smith

- Dwayne Bowe

- Reggie Williams (this after a 10-TD season, mind you)

- Reggie Bush

- Brandon Jacobs (LOL... I SWEAR I'm telling the truth!)

- Thomas Jones

- Donovan McNabb

- Santonio Holmes

- Chris Chambers

- Isaac Bruce

- Vince Young

- Santana Moss

- Andre Johnson

Am I being too critical here, or is it positively absurd for these guys to be considered "sleepers"...?

You want a sleeper? Drew Carter is a sleeper. Roy Hall is a sleeper. Xavier Omon is a sleeper.

Pro Forecast has been one of the best Mags on the market for a long long time and might be the first ever big time FF mags to hit the stands. I see no reason for this post in this *SHARK* pool.

Maybe you'll get to be a moderator once you've been here for two months.