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Fantasy Point Distribution By NFL Draft Round (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Sigmund Bloom
- Start date
cstu
Footballguy
Just a few quick observations....
QB - Like the other positions those drafted in the first 2 rounds did the best but it seems more difficult to identify which QB's drafted later will do well (i.e. no 3rd rounders but 10 6th rounders).
RB - those drafted after the 4th round have not had much success - shows how well teams know RB's.
WR - 79% in the top 36 were drafted in the first 3 rounds.
The Man With No Name
Footballguy
Great.Note to self: Do not draft, trade for, or aquire a running back that was drafted in the 5th round.
who was that 1 5th round rb that had a top 30 season?
ConstruxBoy
Kate's Daddy
Thanks for the positive comments everyone. I was wondering what other people thought of that trend. My opinion is that it probably shows how much more mentally involved the QB position is and it isn't very easy for teams to measure that pre-draft. You can talk about physical skills and mechanics and college stats all you want, but it's really hard to see inside of a player's mind to know how he will perform as an NFL QB. There is not only a ton of pressure, but there's also the trappings of instant fame for early rounders. They're the saviors of the franchise. Ronnie Brown was the 2nd pick in the draft a couple of years ago, but I don't think anyone was calling him the savior of the franchise. Yet Joey Harrington was the 3rd pick for the Lions and he was going to lead them to the promised land. I'm not so sure that teams wouldn't be better off picking up QBs a little bit later in the draft or trading for promising youngsters before they get a chance to set the world on fire. Matt Schaub is a good example to me. I think he's a little bit over hyped, but he still seems like he would be a solid QB in this league who can handle the job. I think teams should be lining up to get him, instead of drafting guys in the first 10 picks.Just a few quick observations....QB - Like the other positions those drafted in the first 2 rounds did the best but it seems more difficult to identify which QB's drafted later will do well (i.e. no 3rd rounders but 10 6th rounders).RB - those drafted after the 4th round have not had much success - shows how well teams know RB's.WR - 79% in the top 36 were drafted in the first 3 rounds.
ConstruxBoy
Kate's Daddy
BTW - Noticed a typo with the RB draft percentages. The 4th round draft "seasons" should be 170, not 70. My comment about there being a jump in RBs taken in the 4th round after teams re-adjust their draft boards for the 2nd day makes a lot more sense if you see that the number is 170. Sorry about that.
ConstruxBoy
Kate's Daddy
Derrick Blaylock was 30th in 2004. So not only was there only one 5th round RB in the Top 30, but he barely made the Top 30, lol.Great. Note to self: Do not draft, trade for, or aquire a running back that was drafted in the 5th round.who was that 1 5th round rb that had a top 30 season?
ConstruxBoy
Kate's Daddy
hey Dave,I thought I remembered someone doing something like this before, but I couldn't find it. I asked Doug D as well and he hadn't done anything on it. Really nice article.
ConstruxBoy
Kate's Daddy
One other quick thing: Forgot to give credit to Doug Drinen in the study. Used the data dominator for the Fanasty lists and pro-football-reference.com site for the draft data. Thanks Doug!
nygiants56
Footballguy
Terrell Davis
ConstruxBoy
Kate's Daddy
He was actually a 6th rounder and had his last top 30 season in 1998. But he probably wrecked the curve if you look at this prime years.Terrell Davis
JayMan
Footballguy
Very interesting read... same goes for Shick! article also...
I was fortunate enough to have this article posted at FBG last year that looks essentially at the same variables, only adding the NFL experience - in order to look at FF production as a function of NFL Draft rank and NFL experience...(Didn't really do a good job in the FF league that was established with those having an article published though!
)
ConstruxBoy
Kate's Daddy
Very nice article JayMan! It's pretty interesting that between your article, Shick's article and my article, we find the same general lessons, even though they have different parameters and were done at different times.Very interesting read... same goes for Shick! article also... :( I was fortunate enough to have this article posted at FBG last year that looks essentially at the same variables, only adding the NFL experience - in order to look at FF production as a function of NFL Draft rank and NFL experience...
(Didn't really do a good job in the FF league that was established with those having an article published though!)
deadstick
Footballguy
Nice analysis. I've been doing some work on VBD vs. Rookie Draft position (small sample set of just the last few years - and this is FANTASY ADP rookie draft #'s, not NFL draft ). I'm using FBG's dynasty rankings and looking at Zealots rookie drafts to see some trends. My baselines were the following:
QB 18
RB 48
WR 54
TE 16
DL 30
LB 48
DB 42
Some of my results:
The line passes the x-axis at pick 22. This means (according to my assumptions), that on aveage the first 2 rounds in 12-team Zealots fantasy rookie drafts will produce positive VBD players (a QB better than 18, a DL better than 30, etc..)
95% of 1st round fantasy rookie picks produce positive VBD players, with 60% of those being superb players (VBDs of 50+). Examples of superb players in last year's rookie draft were Reggie Bush, Laurence Maroney, Jospeh Addai, Lendale White, Vince Young and Vernon Davis.
60% of 2nd round fantasy rookie picks produced positive VBD players, with 20% of those being superb (VBDs of 50+). Examples of superb players averaging in the 2nd round were Maurice Jones Drew and Demeco Ryans.
After that, there's a steep dropoff in that only 20% of 3rd rounders (although after the 3rd round, it stays somewhat around 10%) produce starters (positive VBD players). Some of these 2006 later fantasy picks with some value include guys like Donte Whitner and Leon Washington.
If someone's more interested in this, they can let me know. However, there is a lot of speculation in this (not nearly as defined as the work done in the above posts) and uses the very argumentative variables of FBG dynasty rankings, Zealots rookie ADPs, and my personal baselines.
QB 18
RB 48
WR 54
TE 16
DL 30
LB 48
DB 42
Some of my results:
The line passes the x-axis at pick 22. This means (according to my assumptions), that on aveage the first 2 rounds in 12-team Zealots fantasy rookie drafts will produce positive VBD players (a QB better than 18, a DL better than 30, etc..)
95% of 1st round fantasy rookie picks produce positive VBD players, with 60% of those being superb players (VBDs of 50+). Examples of superb players in last year's rookie draft were Reggie Bush, Laurence Maroney, Jospeh Addai, Lendale White, Vince Young and Vernon Davis.
60% of 2nd round fantasy rookie picks produced positive VBD players, with 20% of those being superb (VBDs of 50+). Examples of superb players averaging in the 2nd round were Maurice Jones Drew and Demeco Ryans.
After that, there's a steep dropoff in that only 20% of 3rd rounders (although after the 3rd round, it stays somewhat around 10%) produce starters (positive VBD players). Some of these 2006 later fantasy picks with some value include guys like Donte Whitner and Leon Washington.
If someone's more interested in this, they can let me know. However, there is a lot of speculation in this (not nearly as defined as the work done in the above posts) and uses the very argumentative variables of FBG dynasty rankings, Zealots rookie ADPs, and my personal baselines.
EBF
Footballguy
I did an informal study like this several years ago. My results showed something like:
- 50% of first round picks become quality players
- 35% of second round picks become quality players
- 30% of third round picks become quality players
- 10% of fourth round picks become quality players
The third round is really a great spot to find dynasty sleepers. The guys chosen in this range rarely have the hype of their first round counterparts, but you can often find some decent talent here.
- 50% of first round picks become quality players
- 35% of second round picks become quality players
- 30% of third round picks become quality players
- 10% of fourth round picks become quality players
The third round is really a great spot to find dynasty sleepers. The guys chosen in this range rarely have the hype of their first round counterparts, but you can often find some decent talent here.
cstu
Footballguy
I think the results are skewed by the fact that late round RB's rarely get a chance to start. If they end up getting a shot they usually do well (Chester Taylor, Mike Anderson, Terrell Davis, Jamal Anderson).Turner's situation reminds me of what happened to both Taylor and Anderson - playing behind good RB's early in their career.So does this mean that Michael Turner isn't going to be as good as people think?
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ConstruxBoy
Kate's Daddy
Well, you did throw in several statements about UDFAs Garcia and Warner making it less linear than the other positions. And your study was from before the big three 6th rounders, Brady, Bulger and Hasselback.
coolnerd
Footballguy
While there are factors such the teams investment and such, this study points to the obvious; the players drafted earlier for the most part are the better players. The notion that you can just find RBs anywhere in the draft is nearly a myth. Most of the great build around the franchise RBs are earlier draft picks. Heck, most of the starting Rbs are first day draft picks. I looked this up a few months back and on average there is like 1 quality RB selected from the 4th round on including undrafted FAs.I think the results are skewed by the fact that late round RB's rarely get a chance to start. If they end up getting a shot they usually do well (Chester Taylor, Mike Anderson, Terrell Davis, Jamal Anderson).Turner's situation reminds me of what happened to both Taylor and Anderson - playing behind good RB's early in their career.So does this mean that Michael Turner isn't going to be as good as people think?
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coolnerd
Footballguy
Running Backs drafted since 1993 when it was reduced from 12 rounds1993 Rd Sel# Player Pos. School 1 3 Garrison Hearst RB Georgia 1 10 Jerome Bettis RB Notre Dame 1 21 Robert Smith RB Ohio State 2 41 Natrone Means RB North Carolina 2 45 Reggie Brooks RB Notre Dame 2 49 Roosevelt Potts RB Louisiana-Monroe 3 73 Russell White RB California 3 78 Terry Kirby RB Virginia 4 87 Ronald Moore RB Pittsburg, Kan. 4 91 Rudy Harris RB Clemson 4 94 Derrick Lassic RB Alabama 4 109 Derek Brown RB Nebraska 5 120 Adrian Murrell RB West Virginia 5 126 Kevin Williams RB UCLA 5 131 John Henry Mills RB Wake Forest 6 159 Darius Turner RB Washington 7 184 Lance Lewis RB Nebraska 8 208 Greg Robinson RB Louisiana-Monroe 1994 Rd Sel# Player Pos. School 1 2 Marshall Faulk RB San Diego State 1 25 Greg Hill RB Texas A&M 2 34 Errict Rhett RB Florida 2 38 Chuck Levy RB Arizona 2 40 David Palmer RB Alabama 2 42 Charlie Garner RB Tennessee 2 44 Mario Bates RB Arizona State 3 66 Jeff Cothran RB Ohio State 3 73 Lamar Smith RB Houston 3 80 Calvin Jones RB Nebraska 3 83 James Bostic RB Auburn 3 84 LeShon Johnson RB Northern Illinois 3 91 Bam Morris RB Texas Tech 3 95 Gary Downs RB North Carolina State 4 114 Raymont Harris RB Ohio State 4 129 Sean Jackson RB Florida State 5 149 Dorsey Levens RB Georgia Tech 5 160 Tony Vinson RB Towson 6 164 Lamont Warren RB Colorado 6 171 Robert Strait RB Baylor 6 173 Fred Lester RB Alabama A&M 6 185 Anthony Daigle RB Fresno State 7 201 Jamal Anderson RB Utah 7 204 Frank Harvey RB Georgia 7 206 Mark Montgomery RB Wisconsin 7 209 Brice Abrams RB Michigan State 7 212 Butler By'not'e RB Ohio State 7 215 Tom Beer RB Wayne State, Mich. 1995 Rd Sel# Player Pos. School 1 1 Ki-Jana Carter RB Penn State 1 17 Tyrone Wheatley RB Michigan 1 18 Napoleon Kaufman RB Washington 1 19 James Stewart RB Tennessee 1 21 Rashaan Salaam RB Colorado 2 44 Ray Zellars RB Notre Dame 2 46 Sherman Williams RB Alabama 2 51 Terrell Fletcher RB Wisconsin 3 74 Curtis Martin RB Pittsburgh 3 86 Joe Aska RB Central Oklahoma 3 89 Rodney Thomas RB Texas A&M 4 103 Larry Jones RB Miami 4 104 Aaron Hayden RB Tennessee 5 157 James Stewart RB Miami 5 169 Ryan Christopherson RB Wyoming 5 170 Travis Jervey RB Citadel 6 195 Dino Philyaw RB Oregon 6 196 Terrell Davis RB Georgia 7 210 Kevin Bouie RB Mississippi State 7 244 Darick Holmes RB Portland State 1996 Rd Sel# Player Pos. School 1 6 Lawrence Phillips RB Nebraska 1 8 Tim Biakabutuka RB Michigan 1 14 Eddie George RB Ohio State 2 32 Leeland McElroy RB Texas A&M 3 73 Winslow Oliver RB New Mexico 3 75 Moe Williams RB Kentucky 3 80 Abdul-Karim al-Jabbar RB UCLA 3 83 Jerald Moore RB Oklahoma 3 91 Reggie Brown RB Fresno State 4 102 Stephen Davis RB Auburn 4 103 Ricky Whittle RB Oregon 4 117 Richard Huntley RB Winston-Salem 4 123 Chris Darkins RB Minnesota 4 124 Kantroy Barber RB West Virginia 5 134 Jerris McPhail RB East Carolina 5 142 Marquette Smith RB Central Florida 6 183 Tim Hall RB Robert Morris 6 193 Scott Greene RB Michigan State 6 195 Marrio Grier RB Tenn.-Chattanooga 6 196 Leon Neal RB Washington 6 198 Stephen Pitts RB Penn State 7 218 Mike Archie RB Penn State 7 231 Freddie Bradley RB Sonoma State 7 235 L.T. Levine RB Kansas 7 243 Ryan Wood RB Arizona State 7 253 Michael Hicks RB South Carolina State 1997 Rd Sel# Player Pos. School 1 12 Warrick Dunn RB Florida State 1 23 Antowain Smith RB Houston 2 36 Tiki Barber RB Virginia 2 41 Byron Hanspard RB Texas Tech 2 43 Corey Dillon RB Washington 3 61 Sedrick Shaw RB Iowa 3 62 Troy Davis RB Iowa State 3 64 Jay Graham RB Tennessee 3 71 Duce Staley RB South Carolina 4 104 Leon Johnson RB North Carolina 4 105 Darnell Autry RB Northwestern 4 123 Chad Levitt RB Cornell 4 129 Nicky Sualua RB Ohio State 5 138 Kenny Bynum RB South Carolina State 5 154 George Jones RB San Diego State 5 163 June Henley RB Kansas 6 175 Rod Brown RB North Carolina State 7 206 Terry Battle RB Arizona State 1998 Rd Sel# Player Pos. School 1 5 Curtis Enis RB Penn State 1 9 Fred Taylor RB Florida 1 18 Robert Edwards RB Georgia 1 29 John Avery RB Mississippi 3 69 Skip Hicks RB UCLA 3 76 Ahman Green RB Nebraska 3 88 Rashaan Shehee RB Washington 4 95 Michael Pittman RB Fresno State 4 101 Tavian Banks RB Iowa 4 122 Curtis Alexander RB Alabama 5 129 Raymond Priester RB Clemson 5 131 Jonathan Linton RB North Carolina 5 132 Wilmont Perry RB Livingstone 5 153 Chris Howard RB Michigan 6 183 Dustin Johnson RB Brigham Young 7 201 Ken Oxendine RB Virginia Tech 7 202 Marcus Parker RB Virginia Tech 7 218 Edwin Watson RB Purdue 7 223 Tarik Smith RB California 7 224 Ernest Blackwell RB Missouri 1999 Rd Sel# Player Pos. School 1 4 Edgerrin James RB Miami 1 5 Ricky Williams RB Texas 2 39 James Johnson RB Mississippi State 2 46 Kevin Faulk RB Louisiana State 2 49 Joe Montgomery RB Ohio State 2 54 Michael Cloud RB Boston College 2 60 Jermaine Fazande RB Oklahoma 3 95 Amos Zereoue RB West Virginia 4 103 Sedrick Irvin RB Michigan State 4 112 Sean Bennett RB Northwestern 4 127 Olandis Gary RB Georgia 5 134 Cecil Collins RB McNeese State 5 152 Charlie Rogers RB Georgia Tech 5 159 De'Mond Parker RB Oklahoma 7 207 Madre Hill RB Arkansas 7 233 Autry Denson RB Notre Dame 2000 Rd Sel# Player Pos. School 1 5 Jamal Lewis RB Tennessee 1 7 Thomas Jones RB Virginia 1 11 Ron Dayne RB Wisconsin 1 19 Shaun Alexander RB Alabama 1 31 Trung Canidate RB Arizona 3 63 Travis Prentice RB Miami, O. 3 81 Reuben Droughns RB Oregon 3 88 Doug Chapman RB Marshall 4 97 Curtis Keaton RB James Madison 4 115 Frank Moreau RB Louisville 5 144 Michael Wiley RB Ohio State 6 171 Thomas Hamner RB Minnesota 6 189 Mike Anderson RB Utah 7 243 Shyrone Stith RB Virginia Tech 7 252 Rondell Mealey RB Louisiana State 2001 Rd Sel# Player Pos. School 1 5 LaDainian Tomlinson RB Texas Christian 1 23 Deuce McAllister RB Mississippi 1 27 Michael Bennett RB Wisconsin 2 38 Anthony Thomas RB Michigan 2 49 LaMont Jordan RB Maryland 2 58 Travis Henry RB Tennessee 3 65 James Jackson RB Miami 3 80 Kevan Barlow RB Pittsburgh 3 82 Heath Evans RB Auburn 3 85 Travis Minor RB Florida State 4 100 Rudi Johnson RB Auburn 4 108 George Layne RB Texas Christian 4 121 Correll Buckhalter RB Nebraska 5 150 Derrick Blaylock RB Stephen F. Austin 5 161 Chris Barnes RB New Mexico State 6 175 Dee Brown RB Syracuse 6 192 Dan Alexander RB Nebraska 2002 Rd Sel# Player Pos. School 1 16 William Green RB Boston College 1 18 T.J. Duckett RB Michigan State 2 34 DeShaun Foster RB UCLA 2 51 Clinton Portis RB Miami 2 54 Maurice Morris RB Oregon 2 56 Ladell Betts RB Iowa 3 91 Brian Westbrook RB Villanova 4 99 Jonathan Wells RB Ohio State 4 119 Travis Stephens RB Tennessee 4 135 Najeh Davenport RB Miami 5 166 Verron Haynes RB Georgia 6 185 Josh Scobey RB Kansas State 6 197 Larry Ned RB San Diego State 6 199 Adrian Peterson RB Georgia Southern 6 204 Brian Allen RB Stanford 6 207 Chester Taylor RB Toledo 7 214 Luke Staley RB Brigham Young 7 237 Antwoine Womack RB Virginia 7 241 Leonard Henry RB East Carolina 7 251 Jarrett Ferguson RB Virginia Tech 7 257 Rock Cartwright RB Kansas State 2003 Rd Sel# Player Pos. School 1 23 Willis McGahee RB Miami 1 27 Larry Johnson RB Penn State 3 77 Musa Smith RB Georgia 3 93 Chris Brown RB Colorado 3 96 Justin Fargas RB Southern California 4 99 Artose Pinner RB Kentucky 4 101 Domanick Williams RB Louisiana State 4 105 Onterrio Smith RB Oregon 4 108 Quentin Griffin RB Oklahoma 4 115 Lee Suggs RB Virginia Tech 4 132 LaBrandon Toefield RB Louisiana State 6 206 Brock Forsey RB Boise State 7 235 Ahmaad Galloway RB Alabama 7 236 Brandon Drumm RB Colorado 7 242 J.T. Wall RB Georgia 7 247 Casey Moore RB Stanford 2004 Rd Sel# Player Pos. School 1 24 Steven Jackson RB Oregon State 1 26 Chris Perry RB Michigan 1 30 Kevin Jones RB Virginia Tech 2 41 Tatum Bell RB Oklahoma State 2 43 Julius Jones RB Notre Dame 4 119 Mewelde Moore RB Tulane 4 128 Cedric Cobbs RB Arkansas 5 154 Michael Turner RB Northern Illinois 7 208 Joe Echemandu RB California 7 219 Quincy Wilson RB West Virginia 7 235 Derrick Ward RB Ottawa, Kan. 7 242 Bruce Perry RB Maryland 7 247 Brandon Miree RB Pittsburgh 2005 Rd Sel# Player Pos. School 1 2 Ronnie Brown RB Auburn 1 4 Cedric Benson RB Texas 1 5 Carnell Williams RB Auburn 2 44 J.J. Arrington RB California 2 54 Eric Shelton RB Louisville 3 65 Frank Gore RB Miami 3 73 Vernand Morency RB Oklahoma State 3 77 Ryan Moats RB Louisiana Tech 3 101 Maurice Clarett RB Ohio State 4 109 Marion Barber RB Minnesota 4 110 Brandon Jacobs RB Southern Illinois 4 112 Ciatrick Fason RB Florida 4 127 Alvin Pearman RB Virginia 4 130 Darren Sproles RB Kansas State 5 142 Damien Nash RB Missouri 6 182 Cedric Houston RB Tennessee 6 201 DeAndra Cobb RB Michigan State 7 236 Lionel Gates RB Louisville 7 243 Anthony Davis RB Wisconsin 7 244 Noah Herron RB Northwestern 2006 Rd Sel# Player Pos. School 1 2 Reggie Bush RB Southern California 1 21 Laurence Maroney RB Minnesota 1 27 DeAngelo Williams RB Memphis 1 30 Joseph Addai RB Louisiana State 2 45 LenDale White RB Southern California 2 60 Maurice Jones-Drew RB UCLA 3 74 Brian Calhoun RB Wisconsin 3 79 Jerious Norwood RB Mississippi State 4 100 Michael Robinson RB Penn State 4 117 Leon Washington RB Florida State 4 132 P.J. Daniels RB Georgia Tech 5 145 Jerome Harrison RB Washington State 6 170 Wali Lundy RB Virginia 7 240 Cedric Humes RB Virginia Tech 7 246 Quinton Ganther RB UtahWhile there are factors such the teams investment and such, this study points to the obvious; the player drafted earlier players for the most part are the better players. The notion that you can just find RBsanywhere in the draft is nearly a myth. Most of the great build around the franchise RBs are earlier draft picks. Heck, most of the starting Rbs are first day draft picks. I looked this up a few months back and on average there is like 1 quality RB selected from the 4th round on including undrafted FAs.I think the results are skewed by the fact that late round RB's rarely get a chance to start. If they end up getting a shot they usually do well (Chester Taylor, Mike Anderson, Terrell Davis, Jamal Anderson).Turner's situation reminds me of what happened to both Taylor and Anderson - playing behind good RB's early in their career.So does this mean that Michael Turner isn't going to be as good as people think?
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The Contrarian
Footballguy
That needs charts and graphs.
Chase Stuart
Footballguy
It's funny how times change. Five years ago, people would have said that you can get RBs anywhere. Priest Holmes was undrafted, Jamal Anderson was a 7th rounder, TD and Mike Anderson were 6th rounders, Stephen Davis was a 4th rounder, and Ahman Green and Curtis Martin was a 3rd rounder.
For 1st round RB draft picks, started to add RB ranking for each year of career -- Hearst finished RB79 as a rookie, RB23 in 2nd year, RB31 in 3rd year, .... Bettis finished RB2 as rookie, RB13 in 2nd year, etc.I would think this data would permit calculation of "success rate" (of 1st round RB picks) by year of career. And I think it should agree in aggregate to the 38% success rate for RBs in article. Excellent article XX = player was injured and did not play that year.*** = still active
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ConstruxBoy
Kate's Daddy
Yeah, we're a little limited in formatting over there. When we get the new site/software running, I'd like to add some.
ConstruxBoy
Kate's Daddy
H.K.
Footballguy
:XEnjoy your driveway beer?That line gets me every time!
Have cooler, will travel!Summary of results by year of career (for all 1st round draft picks since 1993).
Top-24 RB "success rate" of 38.7% for all players and all years combined (113/292). See post #30 above for details by player.
Top-35:
Rookie - 48.8% [out of universe of 43 rookies]
Year 2 - 66.7% [39 2nd year players]
Year 3 - 52.8% [36 3rd year players]
Year 4 - 45.5% [33 4th year players]
Year 5 - 61.3% [31 5th year players]
Year 6 - 55.2% [29 6th year players]
Year 7 - 50.0% [26 7th year players]
Year 8 - 42.9% [21 8th year players]
Year 9 - 31.6% [19 9th year players]
Year 10 - 26.7% [15 10th year players]
Top-30:
Rookie - 46.5%
Year 2 - 59.0%
Year 3 - 41.7%
Year 4 - 45.5%
Year 5 - 61.3%
Year 6 - 51.7%
Year 7 - 46.2%
Year 8 - 38.1%
Year 9 - 26.3%
Year 10 - 20.0%
Top-24:
Rookie - 37.2%
Year 2 - 28.2%
Year 3 - 41.7%
Year 4 - 36.4%
Year 5 - 48.4%
Year 6 - 48.3%
Year 7 - 34.6%
Year 8 - 38.1%
Year 9 - 26.3%
Year 10 - 13.3%
Top-20:
Rookie - 32.6%
Year 2 - 38.5%
Year 3 - 33.3%
Year 4 - 33.3%
Year 5 - 45.2%
Year 6 - 41.4%
Year 7 - 26.9%
Year 8 - 28.6%
Year 9 - 21.1%
Year 10 - 6.7%
Top-15:
Rookie - 20.9%
Year 2 - 23.1%
Year 3 - 30.6%
Year 4 - 27.3%
Year 5 - 41.9%
Year 6 - 31.0%
Year 7 - 15.4%
Year 8 - 19.0%
Year 9 - 10.5%
Year 10 - 0%
Top-10:
Rookie - 16.3%
Year 2 - 15.4%
Year 3 - 22.2%
Year 4 - 24.2%
Year 5 - 29.0%
Year 6 - 20.7%
Year 7 - 15.4%
Year 8 - 9.5%
Year 9 - 0%
Year 10 - 0%
Top-5:
Rookie - 9.3%
Year 2 - 7.7%
Year 3 - 13.9%
Year 4 - 15.2%
Year 5 - 16.1%
Year 6 - 10.3%
Year 7 - 11.5%
Year 8 - 4.8%
Year 9 - 0%
Year 10 - 0%
Top-24 RB "success rate" of 38.7% for all players and all years combined (113/292). See post #30 above for details by player.
Top-35:
Rookie - 48.8% [out of universe of 43 rookies]
Year 2 - 66.7% [39 2nd year players]
Year 3 - 52.8% [36 3rd year players]
Year 4 - 45.5% [33 4th year players]
Year 5 - 61.3% [31 5th year players]
Year 6 - 55.2% [29 6th year players]
Year 7 - 50.0% [26 7th year players]
Year 8 - 42.9% [21 8th year players]
Year 9 - 31.6% [19 9th year players]
Year 10 - 26.7% [15 10th year players]
Top-30:
Rookie - 46.5%
Year 2 - 59.0%
Year 3 - 41.7%
Year 4 - 45.5%
Year 5 - 61.3%
Year 6 - 51.7%
Year 7 - 46.2%
Year 8 - 38.1%
Year 9 - 26.3%
Year 10 - 20.0%
Top-24:
Rookie - 37.2%
Year 2 - 28.2%
Year 3 - 41.7%
Year 4 - 36.4%
Year 5 - 48.4%
Year 6 - 48.3%
Year 7 - 34.6%
Year 8 - 38.1%
Year 9 - 26.3%
Year 10 - 13.3%
Top-20:
Rookie - 32.6%
Year 2 - 38.5%
Year 3 - 33.3%
Year 4 - 33.3%
Year 5 - 45.2%
Year 6 - 41.4%
Year 7 - 26.9%
Year 8 - 28.6%
Year 9 - 21.1%
Year 10 - 6.7%
Top-15:
Rookie - 20.9%
Year 2 - 23.1%
Year 3 - 30.6%
Year 4 - 27.3%
Year 5 - 41.9%
Year 6 - 31.0%
Year 7 - 15.4%
Year 8 - 19.0%
Year 9 - 10.5%
Year 10 - 0%
Top-10:
Rookie - 16.3%
Year 2 - 15.4%
Year 3 - 22.2%
Year 4 - 24.2%
Year 5 - 29.0%
Year 6 - 20.7%
Year 7 - 15.4%
Year 8 - 9.5%
Year 9 - 0%
Year 10 - 0%
Top-5:
Rookie - 9.3%
Year 2 - 7.7%
Year 3 - 13.9%
Year 4 - 15.2%
Year 5 - 16.1%
Year 6 - 10.3%
Year 7 - 11.5%
Year 8 - 4.8%
Year 9 - 0%
Year 10 - 0%
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Looks to me like the great fantasy RB's jump right out of the box in the first couple of years. LT appears to be the only one that has been a yearly top 10 his whole career. LJ of course had to wait his turn so time will tell if can maintain the same pace.
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ConstruxBoy
Kate's Daddy
It's probably just a statistical oddity that only one player drafted in the 5th round at QB, RB, WR or TE was a fantasy starter from 2002 to 2006 (Joe Horn), but here's my alternate explanation:Teams reshuffle their boards Saturday night after the first day of the draft and the 4th round has some decent talent that has slipped through the cracks. But by the 5th round, most of the "solid" talent (relatively speaking) is gone. Yet I think that psychologically it's too early for teams to draft the raw, upside players yet. That comes in the 6th and 7th rounds. So the 5th round consists of solid guys without as many questions, but it's the last group of those players and the least talented. Then when you get to the 6th and 7th round, teams feel better taking raw or upside players like a Colston. However, in the 6th and 7th rounds as teams take more risky players like that, some end up working out. So your ability to get a decent performer out of those rounds is higher, even though there is certainly more risk than with the typical 5th rounder. Make sense?So does this mean that Michael Turner isn't going to be as good as people think?
It's probably just a statistical oddity that only one player drafted in the 5th round at QB, RB, WR or TE was a fantasy starter from 2002 to 2006 (Joe Horn), but here's my alternate explanation:Teams reshuffle their boards Saturday night after the first day of the draft and the 4th round has some decent talent that has slipped through the cracks. But by the 5th round, most of the "solid" talent (relatively speaking) is gone. Yet I think that psychologically it's too early for teams to draft the raw, upside players yet. That comes in the 6th and 7th rounds. So the 5th round consists of solid guys without as many questions, but it's the last group of those players and the least talented. Then when you get to the 6th and 7th round, teams feel better taking raw or upside players like a Colston. However, in the 6th and 7th rounds as teams take more risky players like that, some end up working out. So your ability to get a decent performer out of those rounds is higher, even though there is certainly more risk than with the typical 5th rounder. Make sense?So does this mean that Michael Turner isn't going to be as good as people think?
its does make sense.In fact, the Saints had Colston rated as a 5th rounder - but when they were up in the 5th, guys they had rated as 3rd/4th rounders were still there. There is definitely a reshuffling that goes on Saturday night.
ConstruxBoy
Kate's Daddy
Someone with a lack of sanity is welcome to do the study with IDPs.Are there any similar IDP stats available?
