Fantasy Points Per Touch? + potpourri stats/articles (1 Viewer)

[BobbyLayne]

I’ve stumbled onto a couple of articles which highlight fantasy football points per touch. Unsurprisingly the top five every year includes players Kamara, Cook, Eckler. Also found a blurb on lowest FFP/T, and amongst the laggards were Cam Akers and Joe Mixon. Does anyone know where to find a complete listing not behind a paywall.

Maybe this thread can be a repository of cool obscure stuff you’ve found that might be useful in decision making. Here’s a couple of interesting stats or articles I bookmarked over the summer:

How to build fantasy football projections

Red Zone targets (NFL savant)

every 2020 play over 35 yards (scroll down third data set) (if you’re in a big play bonus league)

personnel grouping frequency - every formation of every team

538 - Why did teams score so many touchdowns this year

Team run/pass ratios

Consistency Calculator (QB-WR-RB-TE-DL-LB-CB)

Introducing the Ambiguous RB1 Theory

 Bon Appétit!

 

[ZWK]

Seems pretty easy to calculate yourself, if you just copy stats into a spreadsheet. Plenty of stats pages that have rushes, receptions, and fpt (e.g. here from FBG).

I imagine it mostly comes down to how much of a RB's role is receiving vs rushing, since receptions are worth way more than rushes (on avg).

... Yep. Among RBs with at least 80 touches last year, the correlation between fpt/touch and receptions per touch is r=0.70. A few exceptions like JK Dobbins & Nick Chubb who had good fpt/touch despite a small receiving share, and Ito Smith & Devin Singletary who had poor fpt/touch despite an above average receiving share. (This is all for ppr.)

 

[BobbyLayne]

Seems pretty easy to calculate yourself, if you just copy stats into a spreadsheet. Plenty of stats pages that have rushes, receptions, and fpt (e.g. here from FBG).

I imagine it mostly comes down to how much of a RB's role is receiving vs rushing, since receptions are worth way more than rushes (on avg).

... Yep. Among RBs with at least 80 touches last year, the correlation between fpt/touch and receptions per touch is r=0.70. A few exceptions like JK Dobbins & Nick Chubb who had good fpt/touch despite a small receiving share, and Ito Smith & Devin Singletary who had poor fpt/touch despite an above average receiving share. (This is all for ppr.)

lineups.com has the data I’m looking for, it’s just the presentation is inverse (i.e., it represents as snaps per point or touches per point instead of points per whatever. it gives me the sort I’m looking for which is all I care about.)

anyway $4 a pound

listen no offense, I know I could d/l the data into a csv and import it into a spreadsheet. I’m a CPA who spent 20 years doing M&A in tech. I crunch a lot of stuff for fun but not FF, it’s tedious af and usually someone has already done what I’m looking for. besides not wanting to reinvent the wheel, that’s like asking a pastry chef to meet up at Cinnabon. at my age I’m more interesting in figuring out what the data is telling us than compiling & sorting.

__________

posting this again - probably the most exciting study I’ve seen in awhile

Ambiguous backfields (10 minute read)

Breakout RBs (15 minute podcast)

Late-round podcast did a study on mid-round RBs (after round 4, before double digits) to identify which ones to target. Same topic, different titles, but I think this data is pretty insightful. I’ve been avoiding RBs in rounds 4-7 bc of the well known Running Back Dead Zone for years (it’s roughly RB18-30 in preseason ranks), and bc that’s a great place to grab your WR3/4/5. But I think this has me rethinking ambiguous backfields. I’m still avoiding Carter & Gaskin like leprosy but I’m a little more intrigued by these cloudy RB duos we’re trying to sort out this summer.

 

[Ilov80s]

lineups.com has the data I’m looking for, it’s just the presentation is inverse (i.e., it represents as snaps per point or touches per point instead of points per whatever. it gives me the sort I’m looking for which is all I care about.)

anyway $4 a pound

listen no offense, I know I could d/l the data into a csv and import it into a spreadsheet. I’m a CPA who spent 20 years doing M&A in tech. I crunch a lot of stuff for fun but not FF, it’s tedious af and usually someone has already done what I’m looking for. besides not wanting to reinvent the wheel, that’s like asking a pastry chef to meet up at Cinnabon. at my age I’m more interesting in figuring out what the data is telling us than compiling & sorting.

__________

posting this again - probably the most exciting study I’ve seen in awhile

Ambiguous backfields (10 minute read)

Breakout RBs (15 minute podcast)

Late-round podcast did a study on mid-round RBs (after round 4, before double digits) to identify which ones to target. Same topic, different titles, but I think this data is pretty insightful. I’ve been avoiding RBs in rounds 4-7 bc of the well known Running Back Dead Zone for years (it’s roughly RB18-30 in preseason ranks), and bc that’s a great place to grab your WR3/4/5. But I think this has me rethinking ambiguous backfields. I’m still avoiding Carter & Gaskin like leprosy but I’m a little more intrigued by these cloudy RB duos we’re trying to sort out this summer.

ETN, Javonte, Chase Edmonds and Zach Moss seem to the be guys that stick out to me as RBs to target in the mid rounds. 

 

[BobbyLayne]

ETN, Javonte, Chase Edmonds and Zach Moss seem to the be guys that stick out to me as RBs to target in the mid rounds. 

I’m with you on the first three. What am I missing about Moss?  Buffalo is very pass heavy in neutral situations, Singletary is the passing down back. The OC seems to favor hot hand not committing to either one.

 

[Ilov80s]

I’m with you on the first three. What am I missing about Moss?  Buffalo is very pass heavy in neutral situations, Singletary is the passing down back. The OC seems to favor hot hand not committing to either one.

Mostly just a pretty late ADP. He strikes me as about the last guy you can take who a realistic shot at being the feature back on his team. The fact that Singletary has proven subpar a long with how high scoring the offense likely is, I am happy grabbing Moss in the 8th-9th round. 

 

[rockaction]

I think Singletary's athletic numbers are so bad that anyone with true running back athleticism is a good bet to supplant him and eat into his workload. Moss fits the athletic bill (though he's no great athlete), was the early-down back most of the time last year when he wasn't hurt, and looks to be good in pass protection (per film guys on Twitter) so I can see him staying in for passing downs, too.

I don't know. I just think the preference is Moss right now, both ADP-wise and common sense-wise. If Zachariason is saying to pick the higher ADP guy, which I understand him to be, then it seems Moss fits the ambiguous RB bill to a "t".

 

[OldMilwaukee]

I’m with you on the first three. What am I missing about Moss?  Buffalo is very pass heavy in neutral situations, Singletary is the passing down back. The OC seems to favor hot hand not committing to either one.

I'm with you BL!  Singletary's the play here, and I believe the coaching staff considers him (right now) as the RB1.

 

[BobbyLayne]

For the record I’m not targeting any Buffalo Bills running backs. I’m not sure why anybody would. They were like bottom  quartile in every fantasy football statistic & I think they were 30th overall fantasy football points by running backs.  When they bubble up on my cheat sheets and rankings I don’t find myself ever taking either one of them or thinking hey this is a better option than other backs going in the 9th/10th round.

Connor Dillon Drake Hines Sermon or  or a wide receiver 4/5 like Cooks or Mike Williams. 

 There are things I kind of like about both players. They don’t use Mack on 3rd down much, but he’s good at pass pro. Singleterry look dynamic is his first year, not so much the second.  Basically I just don’t see where the volume is going to come from with either one of them. 

 

[BobbyLayne]

Rushing Yards Over Expected

from Michigan Football Analytics

 

[voiceofunreason]

Finally, something I hate more than ppr. 

 

[GroveDiesel]

Rushing Yards Over Expected

from Michigan Football Analytics

Miles Sanders sticks out like a sore thumb to me. The O-line was decimated my injuries last year and one of the worst lines I’ve ever seen. They pretty much had 3rd stringers at every position by the end of the year. Sanders still averaged 5.3ypc. Yet he’s 5th on this list for rushing yards over expected. That tells me that he did it in spite of his O-line. If that O-line can just be an NFL-worthy line and Sanders can get a few more touches per game, he could easily vault a lot higher than his current rankings.

 

[BobbyLayne]

Miles Sanders sticks out like a sore thumb to me. The O-line was decimated my injuries last year and one of the worst lines I’ve ever seen. They pretty much had 3rd stringers at every position by the end of the year. Sanders still averaged 5.3ypc. Yet he’s 5th on this list for rushing yards over expected. That tells me that he did it in spite of his O-line. If that O-line can just be an NFL-worthy line and Sanders can get a few more touches per game, he could easily vault a lot higher than his current rankings.

Wonder how much that ranking was skewed by having runs of 82, 74, 74. Hey, it’s great he has long speed and he’s get to keep all those yards. But it kind of does make you wonder how sticky / repeatable that might be for running backs not named Barry Sanders.

 

[Ilov80s]

Finally, something I hate more than ppr. 

You are interested in which players are the most efficient at scoring fantasy points??

 

[Ilov80s]

For the record I’m not targeting any Buffalo Bills running backs. I’m not sure why anybody would. They were like bottom  quartile in every fantasy football statistic & I think they were 30th overall fantasy football points by running backs.  When they bubble up on my cheat sheets and rankings I don’t find myself ever taking either one of them or thinking hey this is a better option than other backs going in the 9th/10th round.

Connor Dillon Drake Hines Sermon or  or a wide receiver 4/5 like Cooks or Mike Williams. 

 There are things I kind of like about both players. They don’t use Mack on 3rd down much, but he’s good at pass pro. Singleterry look dynamic is his first year, not so much the second.  Basically I just don’t see where the volume is going to come from with either one of them. 

I also prefer Sermon, should have included him. Though I’m torn between Sermon and Mostert. Lots of upside for anyone who can get touches on SF.

 

[BobbyLayne]

personnel grouping frequency - every formation of every team

Pretty good. Pretttttttty, pretttttttttty, pretttttty good Tool.

So yeah, cool, gives what % each team runs every permeation of each personnel group. Just realized that if you tap on any cell, it gives you a statistical breakdown of each formation. For instance, Buffalo Bills 11 formation.:

Personnel: 1-1 [3WR]

Offense: BUF

% of Total Plays: 71%

Total Plays: 860

Successful Play Rate: 54%

PASS PLAYS:

Pass Rate: 64%

Successful Pass %: 55%

Dropbacks: 550

Pass Att: 525

Pass Comp: 353

Passer Rating: 103.3

Pass TDs:INT: 31:8

YPA: 7.6

Air Yds Per Att: 8.8

Sacks: 25

RUN PLAYS:

Run Rate: 36%

Successful Run %: 53%

Rush Att: 310

Rush TDs: 10

YPC: 4.5

 

[BobbyLayne]

Ran into this one awhile back but forgot to post. My GB @TwinTurbo referenced it in another thread.

The Deep Ball Project parts 1-3

 

[woodstock]

Ran into this one awhile back but forgot to post. My GB @TwinTurbo referenced it in another thread.

The Deep Ball Project parts 1-3

Love this, BL. Thanks for posting. 

 

[woodstock]

Rushing Yards Over Expected

from Michigan Football Analytics

Look at Lamar Jackson. 

 

[Leroy Hoard]

Look at Lamar Jackson. 

That one should have been expected.

 

[BobbyLayne]

This one came out today, and it’s surprisingly well done. It’s become an annual part of my preseason preparation the last few years.

The Reddit BeerSheets

 

[woodstock]

This one came out today, and it’s surprisingly well done. It’s become an annual part of my preseason preparation the last few years.

The Reddit BeerSheets

Request link is down as of about a minute ago, just so people know. It might indeed change. 

 

[BobbyLayne]

The link works for me but also I have the Reddit app. If it’s still broken let me know.

 

[woodstock]

The link works for me but also I have the Reddit app. If it’s still broken let me know.

Oh, your link works. The links they have to to sheets over at Reddit don't. That's all I was saying. 

 

[BobbyLayne]

Not a linked article but just a simple exercise I put together this week. Do with it what you will,, I’m just using it to sanity check my ranks/tiers. Perhaps  too oversimplified but I want to make a concerted effort this year to draft most of my players from very good to elite offenses. It’s become a splash play league with an emphasis on efficient offenses.

FOR CLARITY

• ranks and TD totals are from Mike Clay’s 2021 NFL Projection Guide
  
• (parenthetical numbers) are last year’s actual totals/ranks
  

Team Offensive Touchdown

rank / team / projected TDs / last year’s TDs & rank

Elite - 5

Kansas City 54 (53 -

                                      *s/b 53 - 8th but I’m leaving it

Tampa Bay 53 (58 - 3)

Dallas 52 (39 - 20)

Green Bay 52 (64 - 1)

Tennessee 52 (59 - 2)

Very Good - 7

Cleveland 50 (48 - 11)

Baltimore 49 (51 - 9)

Seattle 49 (55 - 6)

Buffalo 48 (56 - 5)

Arizona 47 (49 - 10)

Minnesota 47 (55 - 7)

Los Angelos Rams 46 (39 - 21)

Average - 7

Indianapolis 44 (44 - 14)

Los Angelos Chargers 44 (43 - 17)

San Francisco 44 (44 - 15)

Las Vegas 43 (48 - 12)

Pittsburgh 43 (47 - 13)

New Orleans 42 (58 - 4)

WFT 42 (34 - 27)

Below Average - 8

Cincinnati 41 (32 - 30)

New York Giants 41 (35 - 25)

Atlanta 40 (40 - 19)

Miami 40 (39 - 22)

New England 40 (32 - 31)

Denver 39 (34 - 29)

Philadelphia 39 (38 - 23)

Jacksonville 38 (34 - 28)

Poor - 5

Chicago 36 (38 - 24)

Houston 36 (43 - 18)

Carolina 35 (35 - 26)

Detroit 35 (44 - 16)

New York Jets 35 (25 - 32)