FBG Rookie Rankings Critique (1 Viewer)

[EBF]

Now that most of my rookie drafts are over, I felt compelled to share some additional thoughts on the dynasty merits of this year's rookies. Rather than create a whole list for each position, I thought it would be more interesting to identify which players appear to be grossly overrated and underrated by the staff.

Underrated

Kenny Irons, RB, Cincinnati - Consensus Ranking: 19

At 5'10" and 203 pounds, Irons is slightly undersized for a featured RB, but there's still plenty of reasons to be excited about his pro prospects. He was a two time All-Conference selection in the SEC, which has a great track record of producing pro RBs. Additionally, Irons put forth one of the best overall performances by a RB at the combine, suggesting that he has physical skills on par with the best prospects from his position. He was the third RB chosen in the NFL draft and was a second round pick. His game is reminiscent of Clinton Portis and Carnell Williams.

If that weren't enough to get owners excited, Irons landed on one of the most talented young offenses in the NFL. With Palmer, Houshmandzadeh, Chad, and Henry in the fold, you have to think the Bengals are going to be scoring a lot of points for years to come. Irons stands to benefit greatly from this.

Even with so many things working in his favor, Irons is still somehow only ranked as the 19th overall rookie by the staff. I can't remember the last time a 2nd round rookie RB with legit combine numbers and a decent college career was so widely disregarded. If Irons were on the Packers, he'd be the consensus #4 pick. But it seems like too many people are focusing on the presence of Rudi Johnson instead of focusing on the many long-term positives offered by Irons. One twist of Rudi's knee and he's a top 20 RB.

He should be ranked somewhere between 5-15 depending on your league setup.

Good rankings: Cecil Lammey (11), Chris Smith (10)

Bad rankings: Jeff Pasquino (35), Aaron Rudnicki (27)

Laurent Robinson, WR, Atlanta - Consensus Ranking: 34

For all the talk about freaks of nature like Calvin Johnson and Matt Jones, people sometimes forget what a great NFL WR usually looks like. At 6'2" and 200 pounds with 4.40 speed and some of the best combine numbers of any WR in the draft, Laurent Robinson fits the mold of the versatile Torry Holt/Chad Johnson/Reggie Wayne/Darrell Jackson type that has so much success at the pro level. He won't wow you with ridiculous circus catches, but he'll get open all over the field and make the necessary grabs.

Despite playing for a low-profile Division IAA school, Robinson was chosen with the 75th pick in the draft, placing him ahead of Jason Hill, Paul Williams, Tony Hunt, Garrett Wolfe, Johnnie Lee Higgins, Aundrae Allison, Antonio Pittman, Dwayne Wright, and Michael Bush.

IMO, Robinson is one of the top 20 players in this draft and should be ranked somewhere between 15-25 in most formats. As is the case with Kenny Irons, people seem to be placing far too much emphasis on short-term situational factors instead of looking at his raw talent. Given a few years to develop and a chance to produce, Robinson should become one of the surprises from this class.

Good rankings: Sigmund Bloom (23), Jeff Pasquino (28)

Bad rankings: John Norton (43), Bob Henry (48)

Honorable Mentions

Jason Hill, WR, SF - Though he lacks elite playing speed, Hill is a productive player in the mold of Greg Jennings. He'll probably never be a star, but he's a better FF prospect than a handful of the guys ranked in front of him.

Kevin Kolb, QB, PHI - Drafted 14 spots lower than Brady Quinn by NFL scouts, Kolb is ranked 23 spots lower by the FBG staff. Is opportunity THAT imporant? If Kolb has talent, he'll be starting somewhere sooner or later.

Thomas Clayton, RB, SF - Clayton is an underachiever with attitude problems, but he has the physical ability to play at the professional level. I'd rather have him than DeShawn Wynn, Dwayne Wright, or Kenneth Darby. It helps Clayton's case that Frank Gore hasn't been very durable throughout his career. But don't get me wrong here. This guy is still a complete longshot.

Overrated

Lorenzo Booker, RB, Miami - Consensus Ranking: 11

A talented player with a good chance to contribute in the NFL, Lorenzo Booker is still overrated as the #11 player in this class. He's undersized for a RB and was unable to secure a firm hold on the starting job at Florida State. Even with the recent success of guys like Maurice Drew, Brian Westbrook, and Reggie Bush, Booker should probably be viewed as a change of pace back rather than a guy who's going to be an FF star someday.

He's currently ranked ahead of several WRs, QBs, and RBs who seem to have a better chance of becoming NFL starters. So while I actually like Booker as a player, I just don't think he offers enough FF potential to warrant his lofty ranking. He's more of a niche player who will probably never crack the top 25 RB rankings in a given season.

As far as the rookie rankings are concerned, I'd slot Booker somewhere between 16-25 depending on the league setup.

Good rankings: John Norton (19)

Bad rankings: everyone else

Brian Leonard, RB, St. Louis - Consensus Ranking: 21

A pass-catching fullback/halfback 'tweener, Leonard will probably never be more than a RBBC member at the next level. He's an athletic player with a diverse skill set that should allow him to earn a substantial chunk of playing time, but there's little reason to believe he'll ever be a 1,000 yard type at the NFL level. So while he offers the potential to become a solid backup player on your roster, his lack of upside means he should probably be avoided in the top 25 of rookie drafts.

That said, the Rams have a good offense and anything can happen with injuries, so Leonard does offer intriguing potential as a fill-in guy. But even so, I just don't see him as a long-term featured back, so I'd rather role the dice on a WR or QB in the rookie draft.

Good rankings: Sigmund Bloom (35)

Bad rankings: Bob Henry (8), Cecil Lammey (9)

Honorable Mention

Dwayne Bowe, WR, Kansas City - I had him ranked high at one point, but I just don't think he's special enough to be considered a great prospect. I see him as a solid starting WR who will never be great. It would be hard for me to get excited about taking him in the top 5.

Anthony Gonzalez, WR, Indianapolis - IMO, he's a career slot WR. People are getting too excited about the Manning factor instead of considering the possibility that Gonzalez is nothing but the next Ricky Proehl.

Dwayne Wright, RB, Buffalo - Wright is a career backup if I've ever seen one. There's no reason to take this guy in the top 35 of your rookie draft.

Aundrae Allison, WR, Minnesota - Allison has talent, but he shouldn't be drafted ahead of Mike Walker and Laurent Robinson, IMO. Those guys were chosen earlier and are better WR prospects.

Antonio Pittman, RB, New Orleans - The best case scenario for Pittman is that he holds Reggie Bush's jock for the next five years. Even if Deuce leaves, Pittman isn't nearly as good as Deuce and probably won't be nearly as productive. You can do a lot better at pick 24 in your rookie draft.

 

[Chaos Commish]

That's well done, EBF. Great support for your opinions.

My skepticism on Irons is that he's been playing behind unbelievably good OLs, and I mean spectacularly good OLs. With the exception of two or three games, he's just never made the bonus yardage. He takes what's given and he finishes runs. He is in great physical condition, and I think he could carry it 25 times while getting stronger, and Cincy sure has another nice line for him to run behind. So he could end up very productive.

I understand they chose him 3rd among all RBs, but I think it important to consider the likelihood that there was a huge dropoff from Lynch to Irons and these RBs all have very modest prospects, especially with what is coming into the league in the next couple years.

But who knows. Thanks for the thoughtful very

Now let's get some staff replies.

 

[EBF]

That's well done, EBF. Great support for your opinions. My skepticism on Irons is that he's been playing behind unbelievably good OLs, and I mean spectacularly good OLs. With the exception of two or three games, he's just never made the bonus yardage. He takes what's given and he finishes runs. He is in great physical condition, and I think he could carry it 25 times while getting stronger, and Cincy sure has another nice line for him to run behind. So he could end up very productive.

I don't think he's a sure thing at all, but he has the measurables and the Bengals (decent scouting as of late) liked him enough to take him in the top 50. When it comes to the RB position, supporting cast is hugely important. So even if Irons is only an average back, he could still produce big numbers in the Bengal offense.

 

[Cookiemonster]

So quickly we forget...

Irons was concidered to be one of the top 3 RB coming into last season. He was tough as nails, showed good cuts and change of direction. My biggest ? about him was flat-out speed, but he timed well at the combine. He feasted on SEC defenses, and if you want to talk about program players from Auburn, look no further than the RB he's backing up now.

Last season, he suffered a high-ankle sprain in one of the 1st couple games, and still managed to hold of Lester as the starter for the rest of the year (yes, the same Lester he took the job from early in '05). He didn't quite have the quicks I was used to seeing out of him for most of last year, but the time-frame from recovery for a high-ankle sprain can be quite long. In the Senior Bowl, Irons looked quicker than he had all season save for his opening performance. Judging by his combine #s, I'd say he was full recovered, and was drafted in exactly the right spot.

Now concider Rudi's workload since he's been in Cincy, especially since Perry has been on I.R. every year and the type of runner he is. How long do you expect his career to last at that pace? Either Irons starts getting significant carries early in his career, or Rudi's washed up in a couple and Kenny is the man in Cincy. Either way, he'll be worth something to somebody's fantasy team. Do you remember where Perry was being drafted the last couple years?

 

[rabidfireweasel]

I agree with EBF about Kenny Irons. To put my cards on the table, I traded up to get him in a dynasty league. My debate with Bloom in another thread was that if he thought so little of Irons, then he should have had him MUCH lower predraft. Irons was reasonably productive despite playing hurt most of the year-turf toe, high ankle sprain, and bruised fibula- and having poor QB play. However, his gimpy ankles made it hard for him to break tackles. If you are a RB and you get a high ankle sprain, it is very difficult to be productive at all. I think a 4.7 YPC is fairly impressive, all things considered. In 2005, he had some huge games against good opponents: 218 against LSU and 179 against Georgia. He averaged over 5 YPC and had 14td's in the SEC. He also averaged over 11YPR.

Rudi is no lock to stay in Cincy the starter long term. He has 1000+ carries over the last 3 years and was under 4YPC last year. Cincy has missed the playoffs in 2 of those three years, so it is not as if they need to married to their system. Another sub 4 YPC season and an early playoff exit could easily have them rethinking their backfield.

 

[Cookiemonster]

I agree with EBF about Kenny Irons. To put my cards on the table, I traded up to get him in a dynasty league. My debate with Bloom in another thread was that if he thought so little of Irons, then he should have had him MUCH lower predraft. Irons was reasonably productive despite playing hurt most of the year-turf toe, high ankle sprain, and bruised fibula- and having poor QB play. However, his gimpy ankles made it hard for him to break tackles. If you are a RB and you get a high ankle sprain, it is very difficult to be productive at all. I think a 4.7 YPC is fairly impressive, all things considered. In 2005, he had some huge games against good opponents: 218 against LSU and 179 against Georgia. He averaged over 5 YPC and had 14td's in the SEC. He also averaged over 11YPR.

Rudi is no lock to stay in Cincy the starter long term. He has 1000+ carries over the last 3 years and was under 4YPC last year. Cincy has missed the playoffs in 2 of those three years, so it is not as if they need to married to their system. Another sub 4 YPC season and an early playoff exit could easily have them rethinking their backfield.

Hah! Beat you to it. I had forgotten about the turf toe as well. With turf toe and a high-ankle, I doubt I could break any tackles on Madden!Good write-up.

 

[Cookiemonster]

I could also make argument against Booker. He won't be the feature PR/KR with Ginn being drafted to MIA. He won't be the 3rd down back either, as Ronnie Brown is an outstanding blocker, and was touted as having the best hands in his draft class - INCLUDING WRs! Booker should be a guy to give Ronnie a blow once in a while, not vulture catches or TDs. I like the guy, but he's viewed only as a 3rd down back, going to one of the few teams that have a legitamate 3 down back...

I really like those two spots EBF. I wish I had seen more of the others.

 

[EBF]

I could also make argument against Booker. He won't be the feature PR/KR with Ginn being drafted to MIA. He won't be the 3rd down back either, as Ronnie Brown is an outstanding blocker, and was touted as having the best hands in his draft class - INCLUDING WRs! Booker should be a guy to give Ronnie a blow once in a while, not vulture catches or TDs. I like the guy, but he's viewed only as a 3rd down back, going to one of the few teams that have a legitamate 3 down back...

I think he'll play in the slot some and I think they'll use some two back formations with Brown and Booker on the field at the same time. But I still don't expect him to become Tiki Barber. I'd liken him to someone like Amp Lee.

 

[Cookiemonster]

I could also make argument against Booker. He won't be the feature PR/KR with Ginn being drafted to MIA. He won't be the 3rd down back either, as Ronnie Brown is an outstanding blocker, and was touted as having the best hands in his draft class - INCLUDING WRs! Booker should be a guy to give Ronnie a blow once in a while, not vulture catches or TDs. I like the guy, but he's viewed only as a 3rd down back, going to one of the few teams that have a legitamate 3 down back...

I think he'll play in the slot some and I think they'll use some two back formations with Brown and Booker on the field at the same time. But I still don't expect him to become Tiki Barber. I'd liken him to someone like Amp Lee.

Agreed. Upside/Kevin Faulk.

 

[LHUCKS]

Agree will all accept Robinson, whom I don't have an opinion on since I've never seen him play.

 

[valence]

I think Booker could be a player if he got in the right situation. I personally think it was a wasted pick for Miami.

*IF* he gets into the right situation I could see him as a Westbrook\Bush type of weapon.

 

[Cookiemonster]

Agree will all accept Robinson, whom I don't have an opinion on since I've never seen him play.

I still have the combine on DVR and plan to go back and watch. See if there's any good footage of him...Did he play in the Senior Bowl? I still have that recorded as well.

 

[Couch Potato]

Rudi is no lock to stay in Cincy the starter long term. He has 1000+ carries over the last 3 years and was under 4YPC last year. Cincy has missed the playoffs in 2 of those three years, so it is not as if they need to married to their system. Another sub 4 YPC season and an early playoff exit could easily have them rethinking their backfield.

I was about to post something similar. I too am high on Irons (and took him in an initial dynasty draft last week) because I see the end coming for Rudi sooner than most think.-- turns 28 during the season-- 1039 carries the last 3 years (346/year avg)-- 3.8 YPC last year was the lowest of his career-- not involved in the passing game, limiting offensive versatility without bringing in another RB and tipping their hand.Rudi's a good player and a very nice story, but it's not as if he's an uber-talented RB. He was a 4th round pick who has performed adequately (4.06 YPC overall in his 3 years as full time starter) because he's in a dynamic passing offense that defenses have to concentrate on, opening up lanes for the running game. He's not special. He's made fantasy owners happy because he's had lots of carries and 12 TDs each year, but given the same number of opportunities and surrounding offense a lot of backs could do as well or better.

 

[Couch Potato]

Agree will all accept Robinson, whom I don't have an opinion on since I've never seen him play.

LHUCKS -- forgive my ignorance but who is that pictured in your avatar? I'm sure everyone but me recognizes him, but I watch almost no TV and haven't for a long time.

 

[phthalatemagic]

EBF - good thread!

Why do you think should Gore go down that Clayton would get more looks than Michael Robinson?

 

[LHUCKS]

Agree will all accept Robinson, whom I don't have an opinion on since I've never seen him play.

LHUCKS -- forgive my ignorance, who is that pictured in your avatar. I'm sure everyone but me recognizes him, but I watch almost no TV and haven't for a long time.

David Stern, Commissioner of the NBA

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

You guys have sold on moving Irons up... to 14. I still don't get the feeling that he's going to stick as a feature back, but the case that Rudi might not be around past 08 is a decent one.

I think everyone is underestimating Booker's raw talent and trying to pigeonhole him with similar sized backs (much like Drew last year). I have a strong feeling his talent will translate to the NFL better than any back in this draft not named Peterson or Lynch.

 

[Couch Potato]

Agree will all accept Robinson, whom I don't have an opinion on since I've never seen him play.

LHUCKS -- forgive my ignorance, who is that pictured in your avatar. I'm sure everyone but me recognizes him, but I watch almost no TV and haven't for a long time.

David Stern, Commissioner of the NBA

Thanks. With half the face covered (plus I was thinking it was someone football-related), I didn't know. I see it now.Sorry for the digression.

 

[Couch Potato]

I think everyone is underestimating Booker's raw talent and trying to pigeonhole him with similar sized backs (much like Drew last year). I have a strong feeling his talent will translate to the NFL better than any back in this draft not named Peterson or Lynch.

I'm going to agree with you on Booker, and respectfully disagree with my pal EBF. When I see Booker, I see the potential for a Tiki or Westbrook type career. As with those guys, not a lot will be expected at first, but as his skills become more utilized he could become a real weapon.

 

[rabidfireweasel]

I disagree with EBF on Dwayne Wright. I definitely think he warrants serious considration around pick 30. He could easily be a career back-up, but he could surprise. Fresno State playes a well coached. Despite his large size, he is a good pass catcher and could be a non traditional third down back because of his blitz pick-up ability, good size and good hands. Factor in his good vision and potential to get goal line carries, I think he is worth the gamble at pick 30.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

I disagree with EBF on Dwayne Wright. I definitely think he warrants serious considration around pick 30. He could easily be a career back-up, but he could surprise. Fresno State playes a well coached. Despite his large size, he is a good pass catcher and could be a non traditional third down back because of his blitz pick-up ability, good size and good hands. Factor in his good vision and potential to get goal line carries, I think he is worth the gamble at pick 30.

Wright's got latent upside if he can come all the way back from his patellar tear. This is a possible Frank Gore situation, where he didnt look as good as he did pre-injury in his senior year, but he looked like 80% of the guy he was before and swears he'll get back to full speed. I think the Bills agree that he's got potential or they would not have spent an early 4th on him after spending their first on an RB.

 

[phthalatemagic]

Agree will all accept Robinson, whom I don't have an opinion on since I've never seen him play.

LHUCKS -- forgive my ignorance, who is that pictured in your avatar. I'm sure everyone but me recognizes him, but I watch almost no TV and haven't for a long time.

David Stern, Commissioner of the NBA

Dude.. did you see the other Chris Henry hype thread? You should update the sig.....

 

[LHUCKS]

Agree will all accept Robinson, whom I don't have an opinion on since I've never seen him play.

LHUCKS -- forgive my ignorance, who is that pictured in your avatar. I'm sure everyone but me recognizes him, but I watch almost no TV and haven't for a long time.

David Stern, Commissioner of the NBA

Dude.. did you see the other Chris Henry hype thread? You should update the sig.....

I thought it was an obvious fishing trip...but I considered adding it.

 

[Chaos Commish]

You guys have sold on moving Irons up... to 14. I still don't get the feeling that he's going to stick as a feature back, but the case that Rudi might not be around past 08 is a decent one.I think everyone is underestimating Booker's raw talent and trying to pigeonhole him with similar sized backs (much like Drew last year). I have a strong feeling his talent will translate to the NFL better than any back in this draft not named Peterson or Lynch.

I'm also rethinking Irons based on his situation possibly being very juicy. I know what I saw though. He's a good football player, but he lacks good hands and sharp instincts. I think his overall athleticism (not measureables) is just average, and going back to last September when he was healthy, and even the year before when he had big numbers, I always though he ran with very limited vision. That said, I still don't think Addai was the best move for Indy. I think Drew and Norwood would have been better options and I said as much way before they were drafted. I still feel that way, but Addai is a Colt and the others aren't and Addai is making all his fans and owners look smart. This could be similar. Cincy may have been much better off with a few other backs, but Irons is a Bengal and that could be good for him. Booker to me is Leon Washington. That could be very good, or not, but it will be interesting to watch and I am a long time fan of his. I watched him score 4 TDs in 9 runs that covered 205 yards in the first half of a high school football game. St Bonny plays my alma mater every year. I thought Booker was better than Bush back then. In a couple years no one will criticize Booker for sharing with Leon first and Antone second. They're all pretty much the same guy. I agree with Hucks and can't comment on Laurent Robinson and that extends to Jacoby Jones for me. I liked what you've reported and I did see some nice game from Jacoby very briefly, but I haven't seen enough to say one way or the other. I drafted Greg Jennings last year on the opinion of others I trusted and I'm happy with that, but this year I am familiar with so many WRs I would have Jacoby and Laurent down my list a bit. I think FBG and just about everyone but Sig has James Jones way underrated.

 

[rabidfireweasel]

He's a good football player, but he lacks good hands and sharp instincts. I think his overall athleticism (not measureables) is just average, and going back to last September when he was healthy, and even the year before when he had big numbers, I always though he ran with very limited vision.

Although I usually think better of disagreeing with you, I have to disagree a bit here. While he doesn't have good hands, I think that they are average. They are a significant upgrade from Rudi, as is his overall body control. Will he run wheel routes and make over the shoulder catches? No. However, I think he can take screen passes or be a dump off option with no problem. I also think that he has better than average vision at the LOS picking his hole, which is what Cincy has looked for in the past. I would agree that he lacks vision surveying the entire field, and this allows db's to get an angle on him. I think his ability to usually fall forward and his competitivenes on every play will serve him well on a team with Palmer, CJ, TJ, Henry and that O-Line.

 

[Joe Bryant]

Good thoughts here.

J

 

[Chaos Commish]

He's a good football player, but he lacks good hands and sharp instincts. I think his overall athleticism (not measureables) is just average, and going back to last September when he was healthy, and even the year before when he had big numbers, I always though he ran with very limited vision.

Although I usually think better of disagreeing with you, I have to disagree a bit here. While he doesn't have good hands, I think that they are average. They are a significant upgrade from Rudi, as is his overall body control. Will he run wheel routes and make over the shoulder catches? No. However, I think he can take screen passes or be a dump off option with no problem. I also think that he has better than average vision at the LOS picking his hole, which is what Cincy has looked for in the past. I would agree that he lacks vision surveying the entire field, and this allows db's to get an angle on him. I think his ability to usually fall forward and his competitivenes on every play will serve him well on a team with Palmer, CJ, TJ, Henry and that O-Line.

I get several wrong every year. I'm listening. One comment out of Cincy after the pick was that they want longer runs. I wonder how many times Rudi got clear and a smaller more explosive accelerator like Irons would have been gone? This is hard to explain, but I think there is a "fresh" trend in the NFL to pay extra attention to acquiring big play players and finding ways to use them. Irons can certainly take it to the house if given a seem. I think the Portis comparison is overly optimistic, but he has great wheels. Even my first post in this thread is mostly positive about Irons. I wish I saw him make something out of nothing more often. I wish I saw him break more tackles. I wish his game had more sex appeal. But, I guess the most important thing is that he IS capable of getting great production out of his situation. He is a high character extremely hard worker. He can absolutely improve in areas I whine about. I'll agree with this:

Good rankings: Cecil Lammey (11), Chris Smith (10)Bad rankings: Jeff Pasquino (35), Aaron Rudnicki (27)

 

[Donnybrook]

Damm it, EBF. I own three players on your underrated list and your track record is horrible.

2006 list: http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...p;hl=Underrated

 

[EBF]

EBF - good thread!Why do you think should Gore go down that Clayton would get more looks than Michael Robinson?

I haven't necessarily assumed that. I think both players would be given an opportunity to step up. And while it seems like the team is fairly pleased with Robinson, I don't think his position as the backup is especially firm.

 

[EBF]

Damm it, EBF. I own three players on your underrated list and your track record is horrible.

2006 list: http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...p;hl=Underrated

Yea, that's a pretty rough list, but in fairness, it's way too early to draw any lasting conclusions about that bunch. I don't feel too bad about any of my overrated picks with the exception of Addai. Obviously I missed the boat on him.

 

[EBF]

I think everyone is underestimating Booker's raw talent and trying to pigeonhole him with similar sized backs (much like Drew last year). I have a strong feeling his talent will translate to the NFL better than any back in this draft not named Peterson or Lynch.

I'm going to agree with you on Booker, and respectfully disagree with my pal EBF. When I see Booker, I see the potential for a Tiki or Westbrook type career. As with those guys, not a lot will be expected at first, but as his skills become more utilized he could become a real weapon.

He definitely has skills. I just don't know if he's a featured back. Reggie Bush and Maurice Drew are cut from a similar cloth, but those guys were every bit the star Booker was in high school and they outshined him in college. Like I said, I think he's a good player who will have a career in the league, but I have a tough time seeing him as a 200-300 carry back. Last year I was pretty high on Norwood, but I didn't think he had the body to be a featured RB. I guess you could file Booker into that category, IMO. He'll make some plays and get some people excited about him.

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

I agree that I had Irons way too low. Thanks for the heads up.

 

[EBF]

I disagree with EBF on Dwayne Wright. I definitely think he warrants serious considration around pick 30. He could easily be a career back-up, but he could surprise. Fresno State playes a well coached. Despite his large size, he is a good pass catcher and could be a non traditional third down back because of his blitz pick-up ability, good size and good hands. Factor in his good vision and potential to get goal line carries, I think he is worth the gamble at pick 30.

Wright's got latent upside if he can come all the way back from his patellar tear. This is a possible Frank Gore situation, where he didnt look as good as he did pre-injury in his senior year, but he looked like 80% of the guy he was before and swears he'll get back to full speed. I think the Bills agree that he's got potential or they would not have spent an early 4th on him after spending their first on an RB.

I wasn't aware that Wright isn't 100%. If he's still healing then there's upside there and he becomes a more reasonable gamble.

 

[FavreCo]

It's unfortunate Laurent Robinson went to the WR graveyard. I removed him completely from my draft board when they called his name. However, if they are lucky enough to be able to get Brohm next year, look out. If Vick somehow continues his masquerade as a QB, Robinson will never be worth having.

 

[EBF]

It's unfortunate Laurent Robinson went to the WR graveyard. I removed him completely from my draft board when they called his name. However, if they are lucky enough to be able to get Brohm next year, look out. If Vick somehow continues his masquerade as a QB, Robinson will never be worth having.

The Vick factor is definitely a negative, but here are some of my reasons why it might not be the career killer some people are making it out to be:- There's no telling who Atlanta's QB will be in a year. The NFL is inherently unpredictable. For all we know, DJ Shockley will assume the reigns and pass for 4,000 yards next season. Now obviously that's a major stretch, but there are countless scenarios in which Vick could be replaced by a major upgrade (and with 4-5 first round QBs possible in next year's draft, it could happen soon). - Robinson might not be a Falcon forever. He could get traded or sign with a new team in a few seasons. - Maybe Vick will get better.- Maybe Vick doesn't have to get better. Roddy White, Michael Jenkins, and Peerless Price probably aren't the kind of WRs who make a QB look good. Maybe Vick would be a better passer if he had better receivers. It's unlikely, but possible (though I tend to believe that great QBs elevate their WRs ala McNabb and Favre).

 

[EBF]

Good Irons highlights here:

 

[Cookiemonster]

For everybody who says he is a complimentary scatback to Rudi, this video doesn't show the typical Irons run. This guy is a power back. He reminds me quite a bit of Cadillac, in that he's got very good power for a <220# RB. He finishes runs with anger and drags tacklers for an extra couple yards. He won't typically reverse field, or take the exaggerated cutback to break the big one, but rather takes what the defense gives him as the play was designed and when he runs out of room, he looks for someone to punish. He also compares well to T.Henry.

O.K., O.K., I'll stop pimping him now, but don't say I didn't warn ya two years from now.

 

[Couch Potato]

don't say I didn't warn ya two years from now.

I promise.

 

[Cookiemonster]

don't say I didn't warn ya two years from now.

I promise.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

I appreciate the enthusiasm for Irons. I like it when people get excited about a player. EBF makes a good case that players with his credentials (measureables, all-SEC) indicate a higher likelihood of success. I'll buy that. He also makes a good case that Cincy is a plum place for an RB - I interpret that as, "A running back doesn't have to be a special talent to put numbers there". I'll buy that too.

What I don't buy is that Irons will be so good in practice and limited playing time the next few years that Cincy will just say, well, we've got our RB position settled for the long haul now!

Irons has a few things going for him - he runs HARD (always keeps his legs churning), and he's got good hip snap and decisive acceleration and burst through the hole. He doesn't have a top notch burst as he accelerates, but there's no hesitation. He's got good straight line speed, but I wouldn't necessary call him a breakaway back. What strikes me the most positively is that he's got good enough vision to see the hole, and he can get square and burst through it with conviction quickly and consistently. For these reasons, I thought he would have been an excellent fit in a zone blocking scheme(GB, HOU, DEN).

Where is Irons average or even below average? He's not elusive. He doesn't have the classic low RB build/running style that would allow him to win one on one collisions or push the pile. Now his hard running can help him squirm through sloppy tackles, but he doesn't punish tacklers or pack a jolt. I'll agree with CM's post above that he can drag tacklers with his determination, but he's not a punisher. He's also not a plus in the receiving or blocking categories.

In the most optimistic scenario, I could see Irons used the way Julius Jones was used last year, but that's it. The bottom line is that I just don't see Irons as an "answer", the kind of RB that makes a team feel settled at the RB position, and that's why I can't advocate him as a first round pick. He's lower than Jackson because Jackson could present a terrific immediate sell high opportunity, and help teams win from day one. He's lower than Bush because Bush could turn into an answer for Oakland in 2008. He's lower than Booker because well, I Booker's talent.

Of course, we are all going to be wrong a lot (that includes the NFL war rooms). Forecasting players translation to the NFL is about as inexact as anything we do here. The important thing is that we get lots of viewpoints and information on the table for everyone to make an informed decision in rookie drafts and trades, and this thread by EBF is another great step in that direction.

 

[WhoDat]

Kolb...

Played in a spread offense all through high school. Low and behold he heads to Houston and, if memory serves, his high school coach gets a job as OC. Funny how those things happen in college sports. Anyway, he runs the same spread offense all through college. He has not played under center in 8 years, while running a non traditional offense, and he has a low release point.

That kid is a LONG term investment as a dynasty pick with what I feel is above average to high bust potential. Yes, he put up some amazing stats at Houston but so did a few guys named Ware & Klingler in another primary offense that works great on Saturdays but not necessarily on Sundays. I am not saying that Kolb is headed down that path but keep in mind Kolb will have to be rebuilt, as a QB, from Day One. I do not see him having any sort of FF ROI until the 09-10 time frame.

Thus, I agree with some of the lower ratings on him.

 

[broncofan13000]

Kolb...

Played in a spread offense all through high school. Low and behold he heads to Houston and, if memory serves, his high school coach gets a job as OC. Funny how those things happen in college sports. Anyway, he runs the same spread offense all through college. He has not played under center in 8 years, while running a non traditional offense, and he has a low release point.

That kid is a LONG term investment as a dynasty pick with what I feel is above average to high bust potential. Yes, he put up some amazing stats at Houston but so did a few guys named Ware & Klingler in another primary offense that works great on Saturdays but not necessarily on Sundays. I am not saying that Kolb is headed down that path but keep in mind Kolb will have to be rebuilt, as a QB, from Day One. I do not see him having any sort of FF ROI until the 09-10 time frame.

Thus, I agree with some of the lower ratings on him.

Was looking for more information on Kolb as i drafted him in a dynasty and found this post on an Eagles message board...<kolbsupporter>

Hello Eagle Fans,

I am a native Houstonian and University of Houston alumni who has supported the Cougars athletic program for over 30 years. I decided to post on this site because I have been reading some of the negative posts about Kevin Kolb and I want to give you my subjective opinion about the type of quarterback he will be. I watched 80% of his 50 starts in college therefore I can give you an honest assessment of what I think his strengths and weaknesses are.

Let's start out by dousing some flames on some myths:

Myth 1) Kevin played mostly out of the shotgun in college and is a product of that system. That could not be farther from the truth. The offense he ran under Briles allowed him to take snaps under center 50% of the time. He rolled out left and right from under center and threw very nice crisp on target passes the majority of time, ran the option, did the classic five step drop, did just about everything you can do under center. Only on third down did Kevin play mostly out of the shotgun. On first and second downs, he passed a great deal from under center. Art Briles offense down in Houston is very creative and it takes a quick thinking, accurate, mobile athletic quarterback to make it work and Kevin Kolb was perfect in that role. Please watch the following videos to watch him play from under center.

 

[Cookiemonster]

He's lower than Jackson because Jackson could present a terrific immediate sell high opportunity, and help teams win from day one.

Agree here. Jackson is a very talented back who had limited opportunity. I like what I've seen of him so far, and he should be about #5 or 6 rook taken. I also agree that he should be sell high worthy. Long-term, I like Irons and possibly Booker more.

He's lower than Bush because Bush could turn into an answer for Oakland in 2008.

Bush will not be a starting RB in the NFL. He has zero elusiveness or toughness. I don't care if he weighs 280! He goes down too easy, doesn't have the wiggle and doesn't have the burst. I do see his top end speed, and he compares well to B.Jacobs in size and speed, but Jacobs can be an NFL short-yardage back because he runs w/ a chip on his shoulder. I think Jacobs can even be a full-time starter in the NFL, if only for a few years. Bush on the other hand, reminds me much more of Ron Dayne. He was just too big and too fast for college defenders. Unfortunately for him, you won't find any 215 pound LBs, or 4.6 DBs in the NFL. Add to this, nobody had ever heard of Colby Smith before Bush got hurt, now he's a potential NFL sleeper??? I say the system made the back, not the other way around. When I heard the pre-season rankings had him as the #2 behind only AD, I decided to grade him for myself. Prior to injury, he was putting up great #s but unimpressive #s IMO. The plays were already there for him to take advantage of. He wasn't making them himself. Arm tackles are nothing to this guy, but he's not tough enough for the NFL. Oakland will think twice about letting L.Jordan walk before letting this Dayne Jr. be the full-time guy for the Silver and Black.

He's lower than Booker because well, I Booker's talent.

I can't deny a fetish for Booker. If he landed somewhere else, I'd have him higher than Irons too. Only he went to MIA who unlike CIN has an atrotious O-line. MIA has a stud, young, 3 down back unlike CIN who has a stud, aging, 2 down back. MIA hasn't been able to settle on a QB for almost a decade where CIN has a stud QB for the next decade. Booker > Irons, but Irons future is <<< Booker's.

I almost always have to agree w/you Bloom, but don't, whatever you do, don't sell out to the Bush hype.

 

[DA RAIDERS]

 

[rabidfireweasel]

Kolb...

Played in a spread offense all through high school. Low and behold he heads to Houston and, if memory serves, his high school coach gets a job as OC. Funny how those things happen in college sports. Anyway, he runs the same spread offense all through college. He has not played under center in 8 years, while running a non traditional offense, and he has a low release point.

That kid is a LONG term investment as a dynasty pick with what I feel is above average to high bust potential. Yes, he put up some amazing stats at Houston but so did a few guys named Ware & Klingler in another primary offense that works great on Saturdays but not necessarily on Sundays. I am not saying that Kolb is headed down that path but keep in mind Kolb will have to be rebuilt, as a QB, from Day One. I do not see him having any sort of FF ROI until the 09-10 time frame.

Thus, I agree with some of the lower ratings on him.

Was looking for more information on Kolb as i drafted him in a dynasty and found this post on an Eagles message board...<kolbsupporter>

Hello Eagle Fans,

I am a native Houstonian and University of Houston alumni who has supported the Cougars athletic program for over 30 years. I decided to post on this site because I have been reading some of the negative posts about Kevin Kolb and I want to give you my subjective opinion about the type of quarterback he will be. I watched 80% of his 50 starts in college therefore I can give you an honest assessment of what I think his strengths and weaknesses are.

Let's start out by dousing some flames on some myths:

Myth 1) Kevin played mostly out of the shotgun in college and is a product of that system. That could not be farther from the truth. The offense he ran under Briles allowed him to take snaps under center 50% of the time. He rolled out left and right from under center and threw very nice crisp on target passes the majority of time, ran the option, did the classic five step drop, did just about everything you can do under center. Only on third down did Kevin play mostly out of the shotgun. On first and second downs, he passed a great deal from under center. Art Briles offense down in Houston is very creative and it takes a quick thinking, accurate, mobile athletic quarterback to make it work and Kevin Kolb was perfect in that role. Please watch the following videos to watch him play from under center.

I also am biased toward Kolb. I taught at UH from 2000-2005, so take what I say with a grain of salt. A little background- Dana Dimel took over as head coach for Kin Helton in 2000, and it was an unmitigated disaster. He was a poor coach and a poor recruiter. Houston can have a mediocre team simply by recruiting Houston 2nd tier talent (it loses to talent to UT, OK, A&M). Dimel went 8-26 in three years and was canned. In 2003, they brought in former 1970's UH wr and Stephensville HS coach (through 1999) Art Briles, who had also had been an assistant (rb coach) at Texas Tech.Briles decided that the best player to run his offense had been the guy running it at Stephensville since he left, Kevin Kolb. The offense is not a typical NFL offense, but it is less open than Marshall's. Houston had 490 rushing attempts in 2006. This isn't completely accurate as they run a good deal of end arounds and all 30+ of Kolb's sacks count as rushing attempts. Nonetheless, saying that they had 425 typical runs seems fair. Compare that to 445 passing attempts (432 in 14 games for Kolb) and it is easy to see that this is not a just a spread fun and gun. Harrell at Texas Tech threw 616 times. Brennan threw 559 times. Beck averaged 4 more attempts per game. Pro Style guys Quinn, Booty, Matt Ryan of BC threw more per game.

I think the other post does a good job supporting Kolb. He took over a disasterous program and found a way to win more often than not. He struggled his junior year with turnovers and really focused on ball protection- He only had 4 INTS and 1 fumble despite being involved in about 550 plays directly (passes and runs). He will get better. I see his bust risk as fairly low. You simply have to decide if you have the roster space and the patience to take him. He will sign a4 year deal as a second rounder and might not play much until he signs his second contract. I have no doubt though that he will be a good one.

 

[Donnybrook]

Kolb...I do not see him having any sort of FF ROI until the 09-10 time frame.

This doesn't really concern me. I would be suprised if Jamarcus Russell has any real FF inpact until 09.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

Based on the last 4 years of Cincinnati stats, no RB has scored more than 73.2 FBG RB points:

Year RB2 FPs2006 Kenny Watson 41.12005 Chris Perry 72.72004 Kenny Watson 39.22003 Corey Dillon 73.2Based upon the 2006 final results, that is equivalent to between the 45th RB (Kevan Barlow, 75.1) and the 46th RB (Cedric Houston, 71.7).Now, is Irons better than Watson, Perry or a younger Corey Dillon? Perhaps. But Rudi's a stud and signed thru 2009, and Irons is locked in to at least 3 years in the Bengals organization. Rudi will still be under 30 until October 2009.

I think Irons has good longer term value, but right now for three years I think he could prove to be nearly worthless.

 

[Donnybrook]

Now, is Irons better than Watson, Perry or a younger Corey Dillon?

I am thinking that all Kenny Irons has to do to ecllipse those numbers is stay healthy for 16 games. I believe Dillion had hamstring issues the year Rudy took over. Has Perry has ever played an entire season? I am not sure Watson is good enough to deserve more than his allotted touches.

 

[rabidfireweasel]

But Rudi's a stud and signed thru 2009,

Rudi is a FF stud, not an NFL stud. He averaged less than 4YPC last year and no gains longer than 22 yards. In the last 6 games of the season, he had one gain longer than 13 yards. He is a compiler. I love Rudi Johnson and like watching play. However, it is foolish to assume a guy who has had 1000 carries the last 3 years, does not make big plays, does not catch the ball, and had a sub 4 YPC is a lock to hold his job for the next three years. It is also foolish to assume a player is going to see every year on his contract. Rudi signed a 5 year deal with a 12 million signing bonus. Rudi, with a base contract of 4.8 million is 2009 is a longshot to see that deal unless he restructures.

 

[LHUCKS]

I think Irons is a bit undervalued right now, but comparing him to Dillon is going a bit far. Corey Dillon is the most underrated RB of his generation.