Islander
Footballguy
Like I did last year, I compared the 2006 FBG staff preseason rankings to the 2006 final results. Please read the first few paragraphs of last year’s thread to understand how I proceeded to make my judgment. In addition, the same caveats as listed last year still apply.
One major difference to last year is that for the top 3 RBs, having the “correct” order of LT, LJ, and SA was so huge in fantasy impact that I weighted more heavily those correct/bad calls than some of the other good/bad calls. LT crushed LJ by so much that the mere fact of having been wrong by only one rank relative to consensus was very damaging (note that the consensus was “correct”: LT-LJ-SA). Same for SA: those who ranked SA 2nd over LJ or LT made a mistake. Even if SA had not been injured, LJ would have beat him by a good margin.
Like last year, please note that my evaluation is meant to be friendly and constructive! My goal is not to make fun of anybody.
Here are the results of my analysis.
Best Rankings – Mike Brown
Mike wins the 2006 award in my book with very strong rankings. First of all, the winner could not have ranked the top three any differently than LT-LJ-SA. Mike was one of the 5 FBG staff members (out of 17) to get this right. Mike had the highest ranking of all staff for Gore at #15 (consensus #22). Other good calls were McGahee #17 (third lowest of staff) and Cadillac #12 (second lowest of staff). Mike did not drink the Mike Bell kool-aid (#32 – third lowest of staff), Mike ranked Dunn lower than most, and Mike ranked C Taylor above consensus (#14 and Taylor finished 13th overall and 15th PPG).
What made Mike’s rankings so good are the lack of bad calls. Some staff members rarely deviate from the consensus so they end up with very few good/bad calls. Mike took a stance on several RBs and despite that, he ended up with fewer bad calls than most of his colleagues who don’t deviate often. Mike’s top mistake was W Parker at #18 (second lowest ranking). Other than that, I see a few that are not very good, but certainly not season killers. For example, Rudi at #4 was too high, but Rudi did not have a horrible season (#9 total points, #12 PPG). Westbrook at #16 was a tad low, but the consensus was #14 so Mike was not that far off from consensus. Reggie Bush at #11 was too high, but Bush finished 17th total and 23rd PPG so not horrible.
One player for which I did not rate as either a good or bad call is K Jones at #6. Mike had by far the highest ranking for KJ (second highest was #11, consensus #16). KJ ended up 23rd total points and #9 PPG. If KJ had not been injured, I would not have hesitated to put this in the good call column. But he got injured, however this simply cannot go to the bad call column since KJ was a top 10 RB prior to injury and he did play 12 games so Mike got some use out of him during the 2006 season.
Note that in 2005 I had Mike as “middle of the road” with his RB rankings. So one average year and one top notch year.
Runner Ups – Jason Wood, Chris Smith, Will Grant
Jason, Chris, and Will had pretty good rankings, although not nearly as impressive as Mike.
Will’s rankings did not deviate much from the consensus so by definition he cannot get a bunch of good/bad calls. For starters his top three was LJ-LT-SA so he correctly avoided SA when he drafted from the 2 spot, but he missed out on LT if he drafted from the 1st spot. Will was lower than most on Rudi (#10, consensus #6) so this was a good call with Rudi’s 12th place finish PPG. Will was 3rd highest on Westbrook at #11 – very good call. Two other less important good calls was avoiding Rhodes and Lundy by being far below consensus. Other than the flip-flop LT/LJ, Will did not have any other obvious bad calls except for L Jordan at #5 (second highest of staff).
Chris was the opposite of Will. He’s the one that deviated the most from consensus of all FBG staff. He ended up with lots of good calls and lots of bad calls, but overall more good than bad. Interestingly, Chris did a great job on the RBs ranked in the consensus top 25 and made several bad calls for RBs consensus #26-34. Chris ranked LT-LJ-SA correctly. He was second lowest on L Jordan and E James so he probably avoided them in most leagues. Chris was lower than most on Dunn, Droughns, and Ju Jones – all good calls. Chris was second highest on Parker at #10 and Gore at #16 – great calls. The only bad calls in the top 25 are McGahee #9 too high and Westbrook #18 too low. It really started to deteriorate at RB26 based on consensus. Mike Bell #21, Dillon #37, Tatum Bell #22, McAllister #36, Chris Brown #27, and Addai #43 were in the wrong direction compared to consensus. The worst call was Lundy at #17! To round it up, Chris had two more good calls at the tail end of the consensus rankings with MB3 #26 (highest of all staff, consensus #39) and MJD (#40 – second highest of staff, consensus #46). All in all, Chris made more good calls than bad calls and in addition, the good calls probably paid off more than how much the bad calls hurt his teams. Nice job. Like Will, Chris was middle of the road in 2005.
Jason was the runner up in 2005 and did a pretty good job again in 2006. Similar to Will, Jason does not deviate from consensus very frequently. He gets a good grade mainly for ranking the top three correctly LT-LJ-SA. Jason was second lowest on Foster #32 and lower than most on Rhodes as well, so he avoided these two overpriced RBs. Jason was 2nd highest of staff on F Taylor which was a good call, Taylor finishing above his consensus ranking. Amongst the few bad calls that Jason made was being too high on E James, Lundy, and DeAngelo Williams. Jason was too low on C Taylor. That’s about it. Overall pretty solid rankings for a second straight year.
Worst Performance – Marc Levin
Marc made horrible rankings in 2006. Note that Marc was pretty bad in 2005 as well. Two years is not a very long history, but in my book that’s enough to make me hesitate to consider Marc’s rankings when he deviates too much from consensus. In 2006 Marc almost made no good calls despite deviating frequently from consensus. Cadillac at #11 was a good call because it was lower than consensus (#9). But even that is not that great a call, it was only two notches below consensus. Marc’s list of bad calls is very long. Marc had the dreadful LJ-SA-LT top three (nobody had SA-LJ-LT). He was one of the four staff members to do that. L Jordan at #6 was too high. Westbrook #18 was too low. McAllister at #34 was too low and Lundy #24 was too high. Marc did not have Gore on any of his team with a ranking of #30, far below the consensus of #22. Mike Bell probably killed Marc in several leagues. Marc had Bell #14, the highest ranking of all staff BY FAR (second highest was #21, consensus was #26). M Bell finished #36 PPG. Reggie Bush at #12 was a bit too optimistic, but not nearly as bad as Marc’s other bad calls. I noticed that Marc did not issue his rankings this year. I don’t think the FBG consensus rankings are weaker with Marc not contributing.
Pretty Bad – Mark Wimer
In 2005 I gave Mark a “needs improvement” and he did worse this year. Mark correctly picked LT as #1 but unfortunately went with SA at #2. S Jax at #16 was a putrid call, nobody had SJax lower than 10th so Mark missed completely. Mark was the highest on Ronnie Brown at #5 – oops. Mark was the lowest on Reggie Bush by far at #31 (second lowest was #20), this turned out to be too low with Bush finishing 17th total and 23rd PPG. Other huge bad calls where Mark was the highest or lowest of all staff: Dunn #11, C Taylor #27, Rhodes #20, Chris Brown #25, and Addai #44. Other calls that were not that good compared to consensus: F Taylor at #32, Mike Bell at #22, Lundy #24, and Barlow #29. Last but not least, for the second year in a row Mark blew it completely on D Foster at #12.
Unlike Marc Levin, Mark W had a few good calls. McGahee #18 (lowest of staff), Westbrook #7 (highest of staff), and Droughns #26 (3rd lowest of staff) all deserve to be mentioned.
Needs Improvement #1 – Bob Henry
Bob had the best rankings in 2005 but disappointed in 2006 with pretty bad rankings.
Bob unfortunately ranked the top three LJ-SA-LT. Bob was too high on Dunn #14, Droughns #15, D Foster #16, Tatum Bell #23, and Chris Brown #27. Bob was too low on Jamal Lewis #34 (lowest of all staff by far… consensus #20 and J Lewis finished 16th total and 22nd PPG), F Taylor #32, and Addai #39. Bob did make some good calls relative to consensus however: McAllister #22, MJD #40, Westbrook #11, and McGahee #18.
Needs Improvement #2 – David Shick
David was not as bad as Marc, Mark, and Bob, but did not do well at all. His top three was LT-SA-LJ so when he drafted from the 2 spot he messed up. At least he got LT correct. Cadillac at #6 was the highest of all staff and that did not turn out very well. David was too high on Dunn #14, Rhodes #26, and C Brown #27, but was too low on C Taylor #25, MB3 #46, and worst of all Gore #34 was the lowest of all staff by far (consensus #22). In the good call column we can find Westbrook #11, A Green #22 (highest of staff), and David avoided Mike Bell with a ranking below consensus at #31.
Middle of the Road – Bloom, David&Joe, Maurile, Hicks, Rudnicki, Pasquino, Norton, Baker, and Yudkin.
One major difference to last year is that for the top 3 RBs, having the “correct” order of LT, LJ, and SA was so huge in fantasy impact that I weighted more heavily those correct/bad calls than some of the other good/bad calls. LT crushed LJ by so much that the mere fact of having been wrong by only one rank relative to consensus was very damaging (note that the consensus was “correct”: LT-LJ-SA). Same for SA: those who ranked SA 2nd over LJ or LT made a mistake. Even if SA had not been injured, LJ would have beat him by a good margin.
Like last year, please note that my evaluation is meant to be friendly and constructive! My goal is not to make fun of anybody.
Here are the results of my analysis.
Best Rankings – Mike Brown
Mike wins the 2006 award in my book with very strong rankings. First of all, the winner could not have ranked the top three any differently than LT-LJ-SA. Mike was one of the 5 FBG staff members (out of 17) to get this right. Mike had the highest ranking of all staff for Gore at #15 (consensus #22). Other good calls were McGahee #17 (third lowest of staff) and Cadillac #12 (second lowest of staff). Mike did not drink the Mike Bell kool-aid (#32 – third lowest of staff), Mike ranked Dunn lower than most, and Mike ranked C Taylor above consensus (#14 and Taylor finished 13th overall and 15th PPG).
What made Mike’s rankings so good are the lack of bad calls. Some staff members rarely deviate from the consensus so they end up with very few good/bad calls. Mike took a stance on several RBs and despite that, he ended up with fewer bad calls than most of his colleagues who don’t deviate often. Mike’s top mistake was W Parker at #18 (second lowest ranking). Other than that, I see a few that are not very good, but certainly not season killers. For example, Rudi at #4 was too high, but Rudi did not have a horrible season (#9 total points, #12 PPG). Westbrook at #16 was a tad low, but the consensus was #14 so Mike was not that far off from consensus. Reggie Bush at #11 was too high, but Bush finished 17th total and 23rd PPG so not horrible.
One player for which I did not rate as either a good or bad call is K Jones at #6. Mike had by far the highest ranking for KJ (second highest was #11, consensus #16). KJ ended up 23rd total points and #9 PPG. If KJ had not been injured, I would not have hesitated to put this in the good call column. But he got injured, however this simply cannot go to the bad call column since KJ was a top 10 RB prior to injury and he did play 12 games so Mike got some use out of him during the 2006 season.
Note that in 2005 I had Mike as “middle of the road” with his RB rankings. So one average year and one top notch year.
Runner Ups – Jason Wood, Chris Smith, Will Grant
Jason, Chris, and Will had pretty good rankings, although not nearly as impressive as Mike.
Will’s rankings did not deviate much from the consensus so by definition he cannot get a bunch of good/bad calls. For starters his top three was LJ-LT-SA so he correctly avoided SA when he drafted from the 2 spot, but he missed out on LT if he drafted from the 1st spot. Will was lower than most on Rudi (#10, consensus #6) so this was a good call with Rudi’s 12th place finish PPG. Will was 3rd highest on Westbrook at #11 – very good call. Two other less important good calls was avoiding Rhodes and Lundy by being far below consensus. Other than the flip-flop LT/LJ, Will did not have any other obvious bad calls except for L Jordan at #5 (second highest of staff).
Chris was the opposite of Will. He’s the one that deviated the most from consensus of all FBG staff. He ended up with lots of good calls and lots of bad calls, but overall more good than bad. Interestingly, Chris did a great job on the RBs ranked in the consensus top 25 and made several bad calls for RBs consensus #26-34. Chris ranked LT-LJ-SA correctly. He was second lowest on L Jordan and E James so he probably avoided them in most leagues. Chris was lower than most on Dunn, Droughns, and Ju Jones – all good calls. Chris was second highest on Parker at #10 and Gore at #16 – great calls. The only bad calls in the top 25 are McGahee #9 too high and Westbrook #18 too low. It really started to deteriorate at RB26 based on consensus. Mike Bell #21, Dillon #37, Tatum Bell #22, McAllister #36, Chris Brown #27, and Addai #43 were in the wrong direction compared to consensus. The worst call was Lundy at #17! To round it up, Chris had two more good calls at the tail end of the consensus rankings with MB3 #26 (highest of all staff, consensus #39) and MJD (#40 – second highest of staff, consensus #46). All in all, Chris made more good calls than bad calls and in addition, the good calls probably paid off more than how much the bad calls hurt his teams. Nice job. Like Will, Chris was middle of the road in 2005.
Jason was the runner up in 2005 and did a pretty good job again in 2006. Similar to Will, Jason does not deviate from consensus very frequently. He gets a good grade mainly for ranking the top three correctly LT-LJ-SA. Jason was second lowest on Foster #32 and lower than most on Rhodes as well, so he avoided these two overpriced RBs. Jason was 2nd highest of staff on F Taylor which was a good call, Taylor finishing above his consensus ranking. Amongst the few bad calls that Jason made was being too high on E James, Lundy, and DeAngelo Williams. Jason was too low on C Taylor. That’s about it. Overall pretty solid rankings for a second straight year.
Worst Performance – Marc Levin
Marc made horrible rankings in 2006. Note that Marc was pretty bad in 2005 as well. Two years is not a very long history, but in my book that’s enough to make me hesitate to consider Marc’s rankings when he deviates too much from consensus. In 2006 Marc almost made no good calls despite deviating frequently from consensus. Cadillac at #11 was a good call because it was lower than consensus (#9). But even that is not that great a call, it was only two notches below consensus. Marc’s list of bad calls is very long. Marc had the dreadful LJ-SA-LT top three (nobody had SA-LJ-LT). He was one of the four staff members to do that. L Jordan at #6 was too high. Westbrook #18 was too low. McAllister at #34 was too low and Lundy #24 was too high. Marc did not have Gore on any of his team with a ranking of #30, far below the consensus of #22. Mike Bell probably killed Marc in several leagues. Marc had Bell #14, the highest ranking of all staff BY FAR (second highest was #21, consensus was #26). M Bell finished #36 PPG. Reggie Bush at #12 was a bit too optimistic, but not nearly as bad as Marc’s other bad calls. I noticed that Marc did not issue his rankings this year. I don’t think the FBG consensus rankings are weaker with Marc not contributing.
Pretty Bad – Mark Wimer
In 2005 I gave Mark a “needs improvement” and he did worse this year. Mark correctly picked LT as #1 but unfortunately went with SA at #2. S Jax at #16 was a putrid call, nobody had SJax lower than 10th so Mark missed completely. Mark was the highest on Ronnie Brown at #5 – oops. Mark was the lowest on Reggie Bush by far at #31 (second lowest was #20), this turned out to be too low with Bush finishing 17th total and 23rd PPG. Other huge bad calls where Mark was the highest or lowest of all staff: Dunn #11, C Taylor #27, Rhodes #20, Chris Brown #25, and Addai #44. Other calls that were not that good compared to consensus: F Taylor at #32, Mike Bell at #22, Lundy #24, and Barlow #29. Last but not least, for the second year in a row Mark blew it completely on D Foster at #12.
Unlike Marc Levin, Mark W had a few good calls. McGahee #18 (lowest of staff), Westbrook #7 (highest of staff), and Droughns #26 (3rd lowest of staff) all deserve to be mentioned.Needs Improvement #1 – Bob Henry
Bob had the best rankings in 2005 but disappointed in 2006 with pretty bad rankings.
Bob unfortunately ranked the top three LJ-SA-LT. Bob was too high on Dunn #14, Droughns #15, D Foster #16, Tatum Bell #23, and Chris Brown #27. Bob was too low on Jamal Lewis #34 (lowest of all staff by far… consensus #20 and J Lewis finished 16th total and 22nd PPG), F Taylor #32, and Addai #39. Bob did make some good calls relative to consensus however: McAllister #22, MJD #40, Westbrook #11, and McGahee #18.Needs Improvement #2 – David Shick
David was not as bad as Marc, Mark, and Bob, but did not do well at all. His top three was LT-SA-LJ so when he drafted from the 2 spot he messed up. At least he got LT correct. Cadillac at #6 was the highest of all staff and that did not turn out very well. David was too high on Dunn #14, Rhodes #26, and C Brown #27, but was too low on C Taylor #25, MB3 #46, and worst of all Gore #34 was the lowest of all staff by far (consensus #22). In the good call column we can find Westbrook #11, A Green #22 (highest of staff), and David avoided Mike Bell with a ranking below consensus at #31.
Middle of the Road – Bloom, David&Joe, Maurile, Hicks, Rudnicki, Pasquino, Norton, Baker, and Yudkin.
Last edited by a moderator:
