FBG Writers Challenge - Need to Know Changes and Why It Matters (1 Viewer)

[Mr Non Sequitur]

Here you go. That's weird if you didn't receive this in the email. If it's not in your spam folder, please shoot an email to our Clayton Gray at gray@footballguys.com and he can maybe see what's going on there. Thanks.

J

Hi Folks,

Welcome to Friday and another Footballguys Recap of the News and Notes. The NBA wrapped up their regular season where they play 82 games to eliminate four teams from the post season or something like that. Whatever. Don't worry though as you can stay glued to the hardwood while our Sigmund Bloom has you covered with everything that's happened in the NFL this week as of Thursday evening.

Remember, a big change for Footballguys this year is the website will be open all "offseason" long. We'll be bringing you a ton of information for the NFL Draft as well as Fantasy Specific content for you. Check out the front page for Footballguys.com and you can see all the FREE Off Season Content here.

Have a great Friday and we'll see you next week. Happy Easter to you.

J

SITE NEWS

A. Way Too Early Redraft WR Rankings

Is Mid April too early to be ranking fantasy players for this year? Of course is it. Is that stopping us? No way. Our Sigmund Bloom has his set of WR rankings ready for you.

B. Way Too Early Redraft TE Rankings

Same thing with TEs. Yes, it's too early. And we're ok with that.

C. FBG Player Movement Tracker

The question every owner needs to stay on top of every offseason is "What's different?" Our Footballguys Player Movement Tracker helps you answer exactly that as we keep up with every player of note that's moving teams. And like most Footballguys features, it's user friendly allowing the viewer to sort and view in the way that works best for you.

D. Rookie Primer - Wide Receivers

Our Chad Parsons continues the Rookie Primer series taking a post combine look at WRs.

E. Potential Situations for Rookie QBs

Our Cian Fahey takes a detailed look into where the Rookie QBs may end up and what kind of role they might have.

INSIDE THIS ISSUE

This Week in NFL News by Sigmund Bloom AFCCleveland - The Browns matched Jacksonville's five-year, 42 million dollar offer sheet for C Alex Mack.

Why It Matters - This was expected, but it is good to see that the Browns are using their cap room to keep a cornerstone. Center is increasing in value around the league, and Mack is one of the best, so he is raising the bar for what a top center can get paid on the open market. This will help Ben Tate and the Browns passing game. The Jaguars lose out, but at least they are attempting to make improvements.

Denver - QB Peyton Manning said RB Montee Ball is ready to be the starter.

Why It Matters - Manning's endorsement is important, as pass blocking is just as important as running effectively when you are beside Manning in the backfield - ask "Dammit" Donald Brown. Ball is already being drafted in the second round - or even late first - as if he will perform at the ceiling Knowshon Moreno set in the Denver backfield last year. There are backs who should be just as productive with less risk available at the same point in your drafts, so we wouldn't get too caught up in theBall hype train.

Kansas City - WR Dwayne Bowe pled guilty to lesser defective equipment and littering charges to resolve a November arrest for marijuana possession.

Why It Matters - Bowe is unlikely to be suspended after another person in the car swore under oath that the marijuana was his and Bowe had no knowledge of it. While his 2013 was extremely disappointing, Bowe looked more like his old self as the season went on, and he should be a value as a WR3/Flex pick in the mid-rounds of drafts this year.

New England - Mike Freeman, of Bleacher Report, wrote this week that according to source close to TE Rob Gronkowski, he will "take his time and then take more time" in his return from a torn ACL and MCL.

Why It Matters - Gronkowski owners from last year know this drill, where Gronkowski returns when he is ready, not when everyone else is ready for him to return. Gronkowski could start the year on the PUP, and give fantasy owners a tough choice again in the 3rd-5th rounds of fantasy drafts. The good news is that Gronk was a stud once he did get back on the field, and if it wasn't for the freak hit directly on his knee, he was likely to help many teams go deep into the fantasy playoffs.

New York Jets - The Jets signed RB Chris Johnson to a two-year, eight million dollar deal with three million guaranteed.

Why It Matters - Johnson is getting paid more than Chris Ivory, so he is likely to have more fantasy value, but the duo will be used more like a RBBC than Johnson as the lead back and Ivory as the backup. Johnson should also get the passing down work and plenty of receptions, so RB2 status in PPR leagues is not a stretch. Adam Schefter of ESPN reported that the Jets have some concerns about one of Johnson's knees, including arthritis, but Johnson denied that he has an arthritic knee. Either way, his decline has started, at least in the view of the NFL, as Johnson was slated to get eight million for just this season under his old contract with Tennessee.

San Diego - San Diego Union Tribune reporter Michael Gehlken wrote that WR Malcom Floyd's career is still in jeopardy despite his reporting to voluntary veteran workouts next week.

Why It Matters - No timetable has been set for Floyd's clearance to return to football activities, or even a decision whether Floyd will be able to continue playing according to Gehlken. The Chargers are likely to draft a wide receiver, but in the meantime, Vincent Brown and Eddie Royal project as secondary targets, with tight ends Antonio Gates and breakout candidate Ladarius Green helping pick up the slack for the lack of a true #2 wide receiver in the Chargers' offense.

NFC

Detroit - New WR Golden Tate compared his role in the Lions' offense to Lance Moore's under new offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi when Lombardi was in New Orleans.

Why It Matters - Moore's numbers during his time with New Orleans should be considered Tate's floor, as Tate is a better receiver in the air and after the catch than Moore, although he is not as good of a route runner. Tate will also benefit from the coverage that Calvin Johnson draws, giving him the upside to be a strong WR3/Flex, assuming the Lions don't trade up to get Sammy Watkins or otherwise spend a high pick on a wide receiver.

Green Bay - The Packers signed QB Matt Flynn.

Why It Matters - Flynn will compete with Scott Tolzien to back up Aaron Rodgers. He proved to be only a desperation option for fantasy in his return to the Packers last year. The wide receivers took a hit when Flynn started, but RB Eddie Lacy and TE Andrew Quarless were bigger parts of the offense. Flynn is not a sure thing to beat out Tolzien, but he should be considered the favorite to win the #2 QB job.

New Orleans - The deadline for TE Jimmy Graham to file a grievance about his designation as a tight end on his franchise tag is next Tuesday, April 22, but GM Mickey Loomis said that the date was not a deadline for a new contract.

Why It Matters - This dispute has been simmering like a pot of gumbo while the free agent news and draft speculation has been flying. Graham would get over five million dollars more as a tagged wide receiver, and he was arguably used more like a wide receiver, so he would be remiss if he did not file a grievance, unless a long-term deal gets done in the next few days. Jermichael Finley got more than the tight end tag number from the Packers two years ago when he was a candidate to be tagged, and Graham is worth more to the Saints than Finley was to the Packers.

New York Giants - The Giants signed QB Josh Freeman to a one-year deal.

Why It Matters - The team must not be that comfortable with 2013 fourth-round pick Ryan Nassib as the backup to Eli Manning. Freeman's standing has plummeted in league circles. He is only 26 and has franchise QB tools, but the NFL let him sit on the market for over a month, and he likely signed a dirt cheap deal with little commitment. If the Giants can help him turn around his career, they could retain Freeman, which has the potential to figure into the decision of whether to extend Eli Manning after his contract expires in 2015.

New York Giants - Former offensive coordinator Kevin Gilbride dismissed talk that QB Eli Manning is on the decline and implied by omission that WR Rueben Randle might not be in the Giants future plans.

Why It Matters - After flirting with fantasy QB1 level numbers in the past, Manning has fallen to the point that he might not even be drafted in some fantasy leagues this summer. Gilbride said Manning will be fine once the Giants solidify the offensive line and "get somebody that’s going to be productive for them as an outside receiver". Since Randle is already on the roster, that is not a great sign of Gilbride's opinion of the third-year receiver. GM Jerry Reese was also lukewarm when he talked about Randle earlier in the offseason. Randle could break out this year, but he should be low on your list of sleeper wideouts until he generates more positive buzz.

San Francisco - OLB Aldon Smith was arrested at the LAX airport for an incident in which he made a false bomb threat.

Why It Matters - Tim Kawakami of the Bay Area News Group reported that "after talking to several sources involved with the 49ers’ decision-making, is that troubled linebacker Aldon Smith hasn’t only lost the benefit of the doubt, he probably won’t play for the 49ers in 2014." Ian Rapoport of NFL Network reported that it appeared unlikely that the 49ers would pick up Smith's fifth-year option, adding fuel to the fire. Smith is also facing previous DUI and felony weapons charges with an April 29court date. The team did draft Tank Carradine and Corey Lemonier last year, and Ahmad Brooks has turned into an all-pro level 3-4 OLB, so the team could release or trade Smith and have a plan B at his position.

San Francisco - Matt Barrows of the Sacramento Bee reports that the 49ers have been shopping RB LaMichael James.

Why It Matters - Philadelphia is mentioned as a possible trade partner because head coach Chip Kelly had James at Oregon. James, a 2012 second-round pick, has been a massive disappointment, and the 49ers have been looking at punt returners and running backs in free agency and the draft pool, despite GM Trent Baalke's insistence that James "will be a 49er" back in February. James is unlikely to garner more than a very late-round pick, but Barrows writes that he wants to be on the field more, so perhaps he could get his foot in the door on a new team. He is probably only worth holding onto in deep dynasty leagues at this point.

San Francisco - The 49ers signed WR Brandon Lloyd.

Why It Matters - Lloyd could push 2013 fourth-round pick Quinton Patton for the #3 wide receiver job and cost Jon Baldwin a roster spot, but he has been away from the game for a year. The 49ers may run more three-wide sets this year, but it is unlikely that Lloyd would have fantasy relevance without multiple injuries to key San Francisco passcatchers - that is, if he even makes the team.

San Francisco - According to the police report, Seattle WR Ricardo Lockette called the police to intervene in the incident involving 49ers Colin Kaepernick.

Why It Matters - In other words, this is highly unlikely to be a problem for Kaepernick. No charges have been filed and Kaepernick has not been sought for questioning. Chalk this one up to the TMZ-ization of the NFL news cycle.

Seattle - WR Sidney Rice returned to the Seahawks on a one-year deal.

Why It Matters - This could slow down any sleeper buzz building behind Jermaine Kearse, but it makes sense for both Rice and the Seahawks to maintain continuity, as Rice provides a downfield and red zone threat when healthy, although that when healthy part has been the sticking point. QB Russell Wilson tweeted"Yesssssss!!!!!" upon news of the signing, so you know it is not a bad thing for his fantasy outlook. Rice is very unlikely to have fantasy relevance this year, but a player of his former abilities is always worth monitoring for an unlikely resurgence.

Tampa Bay - ESPN's Pat Yasinskas advises that RB Doug Martin "is going to be the main ball carrier and that means he still will be a fantasy force".

Why It Matters - There have been worries about Martin's workload being cut back based on comments about a rotation from head coach Lovie Smith, but this is the smart play. He was overrated as a top 5 pick last year, but Martin is a value if you can get him in the second round of drafts this year.

That'll do it for today, Folks. Thanks for reading and thanks for sharing your Fantasy Football Season with us. Seriously. We think it's a big deal that you give us the time to read what we write. We're in this thing together and we'll do all we can to help you make 2014 your best year yet. Have a great week and we'll see you next Friday with another update.

Peace,

J

This J guy seems like a possible keeper.

 

[yumpinyoda]

NFL Teams Capsulized Summaries Changes between 2013 and 2014 from a Fantasy perspective [SIZE=12pt]NFC[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]Arizona Cardinals[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]1. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]2013 Baseline[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]a. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]Offense – Above average passing game in yards, completion and percentage, but light on TD passes. Tied for 3rd worst in league with 22 INT’s. Rushing yards per carry of 3.63 in the bottom five of the league. Offense is ranked 21st overall.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]b. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]Defense - 5th ranked Defense gives up an average amount of passing yards, but against the rush, they are very stingy – only 5 TD’s. They may not run very well, but nobody runs on them either.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]c. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]Intangibles – 40 takeaways among the league’s best, yet (-4) due to high turnovers of their own. Both Punt and Kickoff Return yardage are among the league’s worst. Five Defensive scores for the Cardinals versus just one by their opponents.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]2. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]What changed? Mendenhall (RB), Roberts (WR) and Dray (TE) are gone. The Cardinals picked up Ted Ginn (WR) and John Carlson (TE), which should balance out those who left. Biggest issue will be at RB, where Mendenhall had 8 of the 12 rushing TD’s, but a 3.17 rushing average. Cardinals also picked up J. Dwyer (RB).[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]3. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt] What this means - Ellington, Taylor or the ever-ailing Ryan Williams will need to step up. Ellington likely will get the biggest workload, and if successful, can better balance the running and passing game. [/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]Seattle Seahawks[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]1. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]2013 Baseline[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]a. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]Offense – Seattle is one of those rare teams that run the ball 54.8% of the time and pass 45.2%. As a result, 2,188 rushing yards and 14 TD’s while throwing for 3,508 yards, 27 TD’s and 9 Int’s.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]b. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]Defense - The Defense is an unquestioned #1. 3,050 passing yards, 16 TD’s and 28 Int’s. They are 8th against the run and the defense gave up just 20 TD’s.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]c. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]Intangibles – This is difficult for me to comprehend. The Seahawks were dead last in the NFL in terms of penalties and penalty yards. The other Super Bowl team - Denver Broncos were 31st in the same category. As much as teams trend and other teams, it is conceptually difficult for me to see teams try to penalize their way into the Big Game. The Seahawks garnered 54 turnovers to get a (+16) ratio. They also had four Defensive scores as opposed to one for their opponents.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]2. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]What changed? TE K. Davis departs as does WR Golden Tate. Seattle acquires QB Pryor.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]3. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]What this means – Little change and a full year of Percy Harvin spells trouble for the rest of the division.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]San Francisco 49rs[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]1. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]2013 Baseline[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]a. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]Offense – Oddly enough, the same pass/run ratio as the Seahawks. 3,210 passing yards, 21 TD’s and just 8 Int’s. #3 in Rushing yards with 2,201 and 18 Rushing TD’s ranks 4th. [/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]b. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]Defense - Solid defense overall ranked 4th with 3,819 passing and 1,535 Rushing yards. 30 TD’s total against.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]c. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]Intangibles – 39 takeaways produced a (+6) ratio. [/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]2. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]What changed? Picked up Gabbert as a Harbaugh project and backup to Kaepernick. WR Manningham returns to the Giants. RB Dixon leaves.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]3. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]What this means – Not a lot, but suspect that some of the off-field issues may be a problem.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]St. Louis Rams[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]1. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]2013 Baseline[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]a. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]Offense – 24th ranked offense produced 32 total TD’s (22 passing, 10 rushing). Pass completion rate of 59.5% and yards per attempt of 6.65 were very pedestrian.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]b. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]Defense - Excellent against the run, they were 9th in yardage allowed and 3rd in average gain. Passing is a different story with 4,200 yards and they were ranked last with a 68.1% completion rate and 8.06 yards per pass attempt.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]c. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]Intangibles – Special teams on both sides of the ball and in both Kickoffs and Punt returns are all ranked in the top ten. The Rams also got 41 takeaways to give them a (+10) ratio. Penalties and penalty yardage is among the worst.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]2. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]What changed? Backup QB Clemens departs. The Rams sign backup QB Shaun Hill and WR Britt.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]3. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]What this means – Presumably, getting Bradford back helps this team, though it appears to lack WR quality. Getting Britt could help…..it could also hurt them.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]Atlanta Falcons[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]1. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]2013 Baseline[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]a. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]Offense – Huge imbalance between passes (652) and rushes (321) produced middle of the road offense with 5,788 yards and 37 TD’s finishing with the 19th ranking.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]b. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]Defense - 30th ranked Defense gave up 45 TD’s (31 passing, 14 rushing) and 8.0 yards per pass attempt. They were also gashed in the running game giving up 4.78 per rush attempt and 2,173 rushing yards.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]c. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]Intangibles – (-6) on takeaways with only 10 interceptions. Three defensive scores for the Falcons while their opponents had four. Excellent kickoff coverage, but their own kickoff and punt returns were disappointing.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]2. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]What changed? Snelling (RB) and Gonzalez (TE) retired. [/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]3. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]What this means – A huge hole at the Tight End position that will need to be addressed in the draft. TE Toilolo had only 11 catches last year and it is not clear if he is ready to step into that role. WR Harry Douglas proved to be more than adequate as a backup and/or slot receiver. Julio Jones and Roddy White should return healthy. Stephen Jackson who will be 31 at season start has a lot of career touches; perhaps more work headed to Jaquizz Rodgers. [/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]Carolina Panthers[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]1. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]2013 Baseline[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]a. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]Offense – The 15th ranked Panther offense pass and run plays were nearly identical producing 3,379 passing yards and 2,026 rushing. A respectable 38 TD’s in total with a 61.8% passing completion and 4.19 yards per rush.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]b. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]Defense - The 2nd ranked Defense was a stellar gem giving up only four Rush TD’s and 17 passing TD’s. Rushing yards allowed were a stingy 1,391 [/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]c. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]Intangibles – (+12) turnover ratio having given up a league leading low of 25 TD’s. Best Kickoff cover team in the NFL, yet middle of the road on Punt returns. #6 in the NFL in lowest penalties and yards.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]2. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]What changed? The Panthers let free agents S. Smith, LaFell, Ginn, and Hixon all depart. Free Agent signings include Cotchery, Underwood and Avant, and they also signed TE Dickson. [/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]3. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]What this means - Perhaps they intend to deploy more two and three tight end sets. However viewed, this is clearly a downgrade to the passing game which was already pretty vanilla. Don’t recall ever seeing a team let its first four WR’s go. Caveat Emptor. [/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]New Orleans Saints[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]1. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]2013 Baseline[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]a. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]Offense – Passing game ranked second overall with 5,162 yards, a 68.5% completion rate, 39 TD’s against 12 Int’s – what’s not to like? Upgrades are needed for the 26th rated running game 1,473 yards and 10 TD’s.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]b. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]Defense - A stingy defense that gave up 20 Passing TD’s and 11 Rushing TD’s. Ranked #6 overall.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]c. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]Intangibles – Dead last in Kickoff and Punt returns, yet 11th in stopping Kickoff returns and 5th against the Punt returns. Strange doings. Got only 29 takeaways, yet gave up only 29. [/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]2. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]What changed? RB Sproles, WR Moore and PK Hartley have departed. The Saints did re-sign WR Meachem.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]3. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]What this means – Part of the reason for Brees high completion rate over the years is the number of passes to RB’s and TE’s (35% and 25% in 2013). Without a decent replacement, losing Sproles will hurt. As it is, Pierre Thomas had six more catches than Sproles last year and Ingram is not a pass receiver, per se. That leaves Khiry Robinson who had 54 rushes last year, but not one catch. The Saints passing game takes a downgrade (Colston has been in decline), but as they were 62.5% of the offense last year, perhaps this is the plan. [/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]Tampa Bay Buccaneers[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]1. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]2013 Baseline[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]a. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]Offense – Ranked 31st overall, the problem areas are passing yards, completion rate and yards per pass play, ranked 32nd, 30th and 32nd. 28 total TD’s and 4,793 total yards (32nd) pretty much says it all. [/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]b. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]Defense – The Bucs did give up 30 TD passes, but were 3rd ranked with 21 Int’s. Overall, a middle of the road 15th. [/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]c. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]Intangibles – The #2 unit in covering kick returns and they had 39 takeaways, making them a (+9).[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]2. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]What changed? Coaching staff – Lovie Smith – QB Josh McCown. They also signed WR’s Hawkins and Murphy and TE Myers. Departing are RBs Hill, Leonard, TE Lorig and WR’s Mike Williams and Underwood.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]3. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]What this means – Lovie was a great Defensive coach with the Bears, but could never get an O/C to run the offense well during his tenure. Josh McCown’s numbers in 2011 under Lovie were very pedestrian and McCown only flourished with HC Trestman. That said, and with the Free Agents coming and going, where is the improvement to the 32nd ranked offense? A healthy Doug Martin. Don’t get your hope up too high Bucs fans. [/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]Chicago Bears[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]1. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]2013 Baseline[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]a. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]Offense – A top flight Bears unit had 45 TD’s (ranked 5th) in 2013, 32 of them through the air. 1,828 rushing yards was middle of the road, yet the 4.52 per rushing attempt was on the high end. Pass to run ratio is fairly high with 58.9% passing and 41.1% rushing. A completion rate of 64.4% and passing yards per attempt of 7.69 are both top ten ranked.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]b. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]Defense - Ugh! 483 rushes for 2,583 yards and 22 rushing TD’s, easily the worst in the league. Tillman, Briggs, D. J. Williams, Melton, Collins and Paea, all on IR before the mid-season and bad safety play make for the 27th ranked defense.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]c. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]Intangibles – #2 in Kick returns and #7 in lowest penalties and yardage. (+10) turnover ratio and 6 Def. TD’s is somewhat offset by having given up 7 Def TD’s.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]2. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]What changed?[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]a. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]RB M. Bush and WR E. Bennett depart. Backup QB McCown is also gone. QB Jordan Palmer will likely back up Cutler this year. Forte’s backup is Michael Ford and they will need to draft another RB. WR’s Josh Morgan and Domenik Hixon picked up, mostly for special teams and returns. [/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]3. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]What this means – The Offense pretty much remains intact which is good news for the Bears. Marquees Wilson may break out as the #3 WR or slot. If they get the Defense rebuilt correctly, this team has a chance.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]Detroit Lions[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]1. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]2013 Baseline[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]a. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]Offense – Inconsistencies – 4,650 passing yards, yet a 58.6% completion rate, 29 TD’s, 19 Int’s, 15 Rushing TD’s but they run the ball only 41.3% of the time.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]b. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]Defense - Ranked 10th overall and just 34 TD’s given up. Biggest strength is against the run (6th).[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]c. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]Intangibles – 34 takeaways (-13) overall. The Lions fumbled it away 28 times. Three Defensive scores and two more by Returns. Opponents had four and one, respectively.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]2. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]What changed? [/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]a. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]Coaching staff – Jim Caldwell – Loss of Backup QB Shaun Hill, TE Scheffler, WR Burleson and PK Akers. The Lions have signed WR G. Tate.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]3. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]What this means – New coach will need to install better discipline in regards to turnovers, penalties and more consistent play from Stafford. It appears that they will go easier on R. Bush and that should give J. Bell some more touches. As it is, the pass/run imbalance needs to change and Megatron cannot do it all. TE Fauria could be a breakout.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]Green Bay Packers[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]1. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]2013 Baseline[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]a. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]Offense – 4th ranked overall, very balanced, 42 TD’s total. 4.65 average per rush and 2,136 rushing yards[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]b. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]Defense - 26th overall, giving up 46 TD’s, 2,000 rushing yards and an opponent hefty 7.78 yards per pass attempt.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]c. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]Intangibles – 26th in takeaways with 29 and a (-8) ratio. Six Defensive TD’s while opponents had three. Good on 33 of 37 FG tries as Crosby had a bounce back year. Special Teams is a problem as they were 31st in kickoff coverage while they ranked 23rd in kickoff returns/yardage. [/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]2. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]What changed?[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]a. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]Signed RB M. Hill, though Lacy and Franklin will be the prime workhorses. Lost backup QB Wallace. Re-signed QB Flynn as backup to Rodgers. The Packers also obtained DE Peppers. The loss of TE Finley will hurt.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]3. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt] What this means - . Yes, the Running game did get better, but with Rodgers back and healthy, the plays will now tend more toward passing. What TE will excel? Like the rival Bears, Defense needs upgrades.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]Minnesota Vikings[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]1. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]2013 Baseline[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]a. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]Offense – Though 18 Passing TD’s with 19 Int’s is well below average, the Vikings make up much of that with Adrian Peterson and 23 Rushing TD’s. A 4.92 average per carry is second only to the Eagles.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]b. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]Defense - A second from the bottom 4,869 passing yards given up with a 64.7% completion rate and 37 TD’s gets the Vikings rated #29 overall. [/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]c. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]Intangibles – Minnesota ranked first with 1,646 kickoff return yards. Giving up 42 turnovers produced a (-13) ratio. Vikings scored one Def. TD and three Returns while giving up four and two respectively.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]2. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]What changed? [/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]a. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]Coaching staff – Mike Zimmer - They lose three backups QB Freeman, RB Gerhart and TE Carlson. They also signed WR Jean.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]3. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]What this means - Jennings and Patterson could be a decent 1-2, but there needs to be a QB who can deliver. With a new staff and likely new QB, think we should wait a year and hope Peterson gets out healthy. [/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]Dallas Cowboys[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]1. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]2013 Baseline[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]a. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]Offense – 63.5% pass versus 36.5% run is still out of balance. 33 Passing TD’s (45 overall), but last in the league with 336 rushes. That’s 100 behind the league average. A further consequence is that the Cowboys were 31st in number of offensive plays.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]b. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]Defense - Dead last with 4,835 passing yards and 2,056 rushing yards and 50 TD’s given up (17 by rushing). And this was with DeMarcus Ware.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]c. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]Intangibles – Five Defensive TD’s and opponents had one. 31 takeaways (+1). [/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]2. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]What changed?[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]a. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]WR Miles Austin is out. QB Brandon Weeden joins as a third QB, assuming that Orton returns. Romo’s back remains somewhat questionable.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]3. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]What this means – They won’t be 8-8 again, but will be even further behind the Eagles. They’re going nowhere with this Defense and the likelihood is that the offense will suffer too.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]New York Giants[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]1. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]2013 Baseline[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]a. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]Offense – 18 TD’s, 29 Int’s and a 57.3% completion rate are inexplicable. 3,875 passing and 1,332 rushing yards and a 29th ranked unit overall spells “overhaul”. [/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]b. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]Defense - Overall, not bad – 8th ranked unit. 6.3 yards per pass attempt and 3.84 against the run. Unit gave up 33 TD’s, also 8th ranked.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]c. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]Intangibles – Giants gave up 42 turnovers for a (-13). Another problem area is giving up six Defensive scores AND three return scores.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]2. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]What changed?[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]a. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]A whole lot – RB Andre Brown signs with Houston. Brandon Jacobs retires. WR’s Hicks and Barden depart and TEs Myers and Pascoe leave. The Giants sign returning WR Manningham and WR Holliday, RB Rashad Jennings, backup QB Freeman and TE K. Davis.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]3. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]What this means - A work in progress, a lot of changes, and likely, last place. Looks like Cruz, Manningham and Randle will get the main WR production and Jennings the rushing. Unsure about the TE. [/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]Philadelphia Eagles[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]1. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]2013 Baseline[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]a. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]Offense – The #1 ranked Offense with 4,406 passing yards, an eye-popping 8.68 yards per pass attempt, 32 TD’s and 9 Int’s with a gaudy 2,566 Rushing yards and another 19 TD’s. [/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]b. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]Defense - Bottom third with 4,907 passing yards given up. Decent against the run with 3.77 average on 1,668 yards. 37 total TD’s allowed.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]c. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]Intangibles – 48 takeways produced a NFL best (+20) ratio. Two Defensive TD’s, likewise for their opponents, and in addition, their opponents had three return scores.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]2. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]What changed?[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]a. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]Foles takes over at QB as Vick has left for NY. WR’s Jackson and Avant have also left. The Eagles pick up RB Sproles and backup QB Sanchez.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]3. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]What this means – So, it wasn’t scary enough last year with McCoy and now they upgrade by adding Sproles? Maclin and Cooper will have their hands full at WR as the departed Jackson and Avant combined for 120 catches, 1,779 yards and 11 TDs.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]Washington Redskins[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]1. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]2013 Baseline[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]a. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]Offense – 2,164 yards rushing (5th) and a stellar 4.78 yards per rush (3rd) for this 13th ranked overall unit.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]b. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]Defense – 17th ranked against the rush, but they gave up 23 TD’s, ranked last. 52 total TD’s for the opposition means losing record. [/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]c. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]Intangibles – 35 takeaways, yet a (-15). Five Defensive TD’s ,but they give up 4 scores and two more by return.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]2. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]What changed? [/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]a. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]Coaching staff – Jay Gruden – WR Morgan goes to the Bears and TE Fred Davis goes bye-bye, but the Redskins ink WR DeSean Jackson, Gettis and Roberts. Also backup QB McCoy.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]3. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]What this means – RGIII to DeSean could be an interesting combo. It could also clash with Garcon. Stay tuned for player camaraderie. Who’s the TE? Paulsen, Reed, or both?[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]My NFC picks for 2014: PHI, SEA, CHI[/SIZE]

[SIZE=12pt]AFC[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]Denver Broncos[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]1. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]2013 Baseline[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]a. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]Offense – 71 TD’s, including 55 by air, 5,572 passing yards and a 68.3% completion rate. The Broncos averaged 8.5 more plays per game than the average NFL team.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]b. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]Defense - 17th ranked overall, but 7th against the run. 44 TD’s against is six more than the NFL average.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]c. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]Intangibles – One big problem is discipline. 29th in the number of penalties and 31st in penalty yards. [/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]2. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]What changed? The loss of RB Moreno and WR Decker is going to sting. They gain WR E. Sanders. [/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]3. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]What this means – The Broncos won’t be quite as prolific in 2014, but they will still be a force to be reckoned with. Appears that RB M. Ball will be the prime rushing producer. Both Ball and J. Thomas should have big years. Welker (dropped passes, missed games) was already in decline in 2013.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]Kansas City Chiefs[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]1. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]2013 Baseline[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]a. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]Offense – 41 total TD’s on the strength of 17 Rushing TD’s. 24 TD Passes to 8 Int’s is a great ratio. 10th ranked offense overall.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]b. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]Defense - 12th ranked defense gave up 25 TD passes, but hawked 21 Int’s. They also gave up 4.49 yards per rush.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]c. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]Intangibles – Nine Defensive TD’s was #1. 43 total turnovers produced a (+13) ratio. The Kickoff and Punt return units were rated #3 and #1, respectively.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]2. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]What changed?[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]a. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]WR McCluster signed with Tennessee.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]3. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]What this means – They like who is on the roster and have a year of experience under their belt. Like their chances.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]Oakland Raiders[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]1. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]2013 Baseline[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]a. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]Offense – 3,629 passing yards for 17 TD’s and 20 Int’s is less than impressive, but they were ranked 12th and 6th respectively for 2,000 yards rushing and a 4.58 average. 16 Rushing TD’s was 7th ranked.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]b. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]Defense - The 28th ranked Defense has some startling numbers. 4,352 yards with a 68.1% completion rate. 7.93 yards per pass attempt, 33 TD’s and only 9 Int’s. Ouch! The Rushing Defense was a respectable 12th, but the unit gave up a total of 48 touchdowns.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]c. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]Intangibles – 35 turnovers produced a (-12) ratio. Top five in Kickoff returns, bottom five in Punt returns. #7 in Kickoff coverage and bottom give in Punt Return coverage.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]2. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]What changed?[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]a. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]QB Pryor, WR Ford and TE Mastrud depart and the Raiders lost their best runner last year in Rashad Jennnigs. The Raiders picked up WR James Jones, QB Schaub and RB Jones-Drew.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]3. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]What this means - Inexplicably, they signed McFadden for another year. In his first three years, he missed ten games. In his last three, he’s missed 19. Last year he toted the rock an average of 11 times per game for 38 yards. That’s not progress. Getting Jones, Schaub and Jones-Drew will help to 5 wins instead of 4.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]San Diego Chargers[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]1. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]2013 Baseline[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]a. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]Offense – Running game of 1,965 yards was adequate, but the stellar part of this 3rd ranked offense was the 4,478 passing yards, a top ranked completion rate of 69.3%, 8.21 yards per pass attempt, 32 TD’s and 11 Int’s.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]b. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]Defense - Rushing defense was adequate, but the passing defense numbers 4,387 yards, 66.7% completion and 8.01 yards per attempt ranked this unit 29th.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]c. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]Intangibles – 34 of 37 FG attempts. Special teams are a huge concern. Punt return coverage is top five. Kickoff coverage, kickoff returns and punt returns are 32nd, 26th and 31st. Three Defensive TD’s given up also.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]2. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]What changed?[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]a. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]RB’s Ronnie Brown and McClain and backup QB Whitehurst leave while the Chargers bring in RB Donald Brown, TE D. Johnson and backup QB Clemens.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]3. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]What this means – Gates ages, but the offense looks decent. The draft needs to help Special Teams and the Defense. Woodhead had a phenomenal year – a pity that D. Brown will cut into some of his touches.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]Houston Texans[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]1. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]2013 Baseline[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]a. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]Offense – 26 total TD’s. Only the Jets and Jaguars were worse. 19 Passing TD’s and 22 Int’s. Offensive side injuries played a major part especially in the running game (i.e. Foster and Tate). [/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]b. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]Defense - While they were #2 with only 3,310 passing yards, the likely reason is that other teams were always ahead and had no need to pass. 40 TD’s given up.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]c. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]Intangibles – (-21) Turnover ratio goes right to the W/L record, as does 1,138 penalty yards (2nd worst). The Texans had six Defensive scores, but gave up seven. One bright spot was kickoff and punt returns.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]2. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]What changed? [/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]a. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]Coaching staff – Bill O’Brien – RB B. Tate, TE Daniels, WR Jean and QB Schaub all leave. Large offensive turnover here and the Texans have signed journeyman QB Fitzpatrick and RB Andre Brown. They will likely draft a QB.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]3. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]What this means – A team in transition. Lower your expectations for Foster and A. Johnson. [/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]Indianapolis Colts[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]1. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]2013 Baseline[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]a. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]Offense – 20th ranked offense was beset by injuries (Wayne, Ballard, Bradshaw, Allen) 23 TD passes versus 10 Int’s.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]b. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]Defense - Held opponents to 3,959 passing yards and 21 TD’s, yet gave up 2,002 rush yards at a 4.47 clip with 14 TD’s. Ranked 20th.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]c. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]Intangibles – 41 takeaways produced a (+15) ratio. 2nd lowest penalty yardage and 35 of 40 FG’s made. Two special teams’ problems are opponent kickoff and punt return yardage.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]2. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]What changed?[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]a. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]RB D. Brown, Choice and WR Heyward-Bey move on. The signing of WR Nicks and a full season for DaRick Rogers might make for an interesting season. Reggie Wayne is set to return as well.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]3. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]What this means – Give the Colts an uptick in production this year. If Bradshaw is COMPLETELY healthy, he’s a pick before Richardson. Luck with Wayne, Nicks and Hilton (Fleener and Allen too) has a ring to it.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]Jacksonville Jaguars[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]1. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]2013 Baseline[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]a. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]Offense – Ranked 32nd overall – 23 total TD’s, 16 passing, and 7 rushing.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]b. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]Defense - Ranked 31st overall – 49 TD’s allowed[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]c. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]Intangibles – 38 takeaways for a (-1) ratio, two Defensive scores, four for the opposition. Good team discipline with low penalties and associated yardage. #9 ranking in Kickoff return yardage of 1060 yards. #3 ranking in holding opposition yardage to 509 yards. Punt returns on both sides have less than stellar rankings.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]2. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]What changed?[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]a. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]RB Jones-Drew moves on, and QB Gabbert, TE Reisner and RB Forsett also depart. The Jaguars signed RB Gerhart and WR Doss.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]3. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]What this means – I’m still unimpressed. WR’s Blackmon and Shorts both need to rebound. QB in the draft? Think it’s a must.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]Tennessee Titans[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]1. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]2013 Baseline[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]a. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]Offense – Middle of the road unit with a better than average rushing attack. 16 Rushing TD’s and 38 in total.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]b. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]Defense – If someone had asked you which team allowed the least passing TD’s, you would have thought Carolina or Seattle, right? Wrong, it’s these very Titans. [/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]c. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]Intangibles – 37 turnovers for a (-6) ratio. Three Defensive TD’s, but they gave up four.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]2. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]What changed? [/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]a. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]Coaching staff – Ken Whisenhunt – Coaching changes usually bring large personnel changes. QB Fitzpatrick leaves as does RB Chris Johnson, WR’s Britt and Williams and PK Bironas. The Titans add backup QB Whitehurst and WR McCluster. They’ve got drafting to do.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]3. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt] What this means – A team in transition- they’ll need another year or two.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]Baltimore Ravens[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]1. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]2013 Baseline[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]a. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]Offense – 3.14 yards per rush was the worst in the 2013 NFL. A 58.7% pass completion with 19 TD’s and 23 Int’s is also a problem, as is giving up 5 Defensive TD’s. Ranking is #29 overall[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]b. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]Defense - Yielded 5,625 yards and 32 TD’s – both very impressive with an overall ranking of #7.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]c. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]Intangibles – 38 of 41 FG made were both #1. 2 Return TD’s and both Kickoff and Punt returns were in the top five. [/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]2. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]What changed?[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]a. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]WRs Doss and Stokley, TEs Dickson and Clark have departed, but they have picked up a couple of used vets in Steve Smith and Owen Daniels. [/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]3. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]What this means - The only problem area is the Offense, so if these two (Smith & Daniels) still have some gas in the tank, that may give Harbaugh and Flacco the boost that they need. Clearly, Rice and Pierce need to pick it up and Offensive line help is likely needed. [/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]Cincinnati Bengals[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]1. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]2013 Baseline[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]a. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]Offense – 8th ranked Offense with 47 total TD’s, 4,318 passing yards and 33 TD passes. Rushing game is 18th with 1,755 yards and a 3.65 avg. [/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]b. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]Defense - The Bengals gave up 5.9 yards per pass attempt, 2nd only to Seattle, and were top five in rushing yards against with 1,544. They were third ranked overall.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]c. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]Intangibles – Achilles heel found. Despite getting 36 turnovers, they were (-7). In penalties, they were flagged for 1,038 yards, ranked 28th. They were also ranked 27th in kickoff coverage. The Bengals scored 6 Defensive TD’s and gave up three.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]2. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]What changed?[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]a. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]The Bengals lost WR Hawkins to the rival Browns, but signed journeyman Jason Campbell (QB) to back up Dalton.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]3. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]What this means – With A. J. Green, Eifert and Gresham, Dalton, Bernard and Green-Ellis, you wonder how they can go wrong, but seemingly they do. My pick for winner of AFC this year. M. Jones needs to step up.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]Cleveland Browns[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]1. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]2013 Baseline[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]a. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]Offense – Unbalanced. With little to offer in the running game (1,383 yds), the Browns threw for 4,372 yards, but the passing game accounted for 66.2% of their offense and the completion rate was a dismal 55.7%. Hard to believe, but the Browns had more passes than any other team (including Denver). Offense was 28th ranked.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]b. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]Defense - By and large, the Brown defense was stingy with yards, but did give up 42 TD’s, 29 by air. They were ranked 16th overall.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]c. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]Intangibles – 27 takeaways (-10) and ranked 6th overall in kickoff return coverage. 5 Defensive TD’s versus 3 given up.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]2. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]What changed? [/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]a. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]Coaching staff – Mike Pettine and lots of personnel changes. QB’s Weeden and Campbell are gone as is RB McGahee and WR Bess. Free Agent signings include RB Ben Tate, TE Dray and WR’s Burleson and Hawkins. The Browns will be drafting a starting QB (not unlike the movie “Draft Day”).[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]3. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]What this means – Like the direction this team is going – not all there yet, but they could overtake Steelers and Ravens this year. They just need a consistent QB, which is not impossible in this draft.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]Pittsburgh Steelers[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]1. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]2013 Baseline[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]a. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]Offense – Passing game is decent. 12th in yardage, 6th in completion rate, 9th in TDs, but the Running game is in need of help. 1,383, 3.51 average and 9 TD’s.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]b. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]Defense - Top ten passing game numbers in all areas except interceptions for, but giving up 18 Rushing TD’s is at the low end. [/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]c. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]Intangibles – The Steelers didn’t take the ball away much, but didn’t give it up much either. Top five in penalties and penalty yards.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]2. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]What changed?[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]a. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]RB Dwyer, Stephens-Howling, F. Jones, WR’s Sanders and Cotchery all jump ship. Steelers pick up RB Blount from NE and WR’s Lance Moore and Heyward-Bey.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]3. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]What this means – Not getting warm fuzzies with Moore and Blount and certainly not with Heyward-Bey. Time to mutiny or jump ship.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]Buffalo Bills[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]1. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]2013 Baseline[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]a. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]Offense – 3,373 passing yards and a 57.3% completion with 16 TD’s ranks the Bills in the bottom four of the league, but the rushing attack is potent with 15 TD’s and 2,307 yards. The NFL average for passing plays versus running is 56.7% pass to 43.3% rush. The Bills run it more than 51%.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]b. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]Defense - The Buffalo defense is #1 is completion against them with 55.3% with 23 Int’s, but also gave up 28 TD’s. 28th in the NFL against the Rush[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]c. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]Intangibles – Here are the Bills biggest problem areas. #3 in turnovers with 44, but still a (-3). Last in the NFL with only 469 Kickoff return yards and 23rd in Punt returns (243 yards). 26th and 28th respectively against their opponent Kickoffs and Punt returns. Special Teams are a work in progress.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]2. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]What changed?[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]a. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]The Bills picked up two WR’s to help with the less than stellar passing game. Ramses Barden and the former Buc, Mike Williams.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]3. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]What this means – More of the same until Belichick has the big one.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]Miami Dolphins[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]1. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]2013 Baseline[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]a. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]Offense – 1,440 rushing yards and 8 TD’s, and of those, one was scored by a QB and one by a TE. This is clearly a problem area. 3966 passing yards with 24 TD’s and 19 Int’s is middle of the road. [/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]b. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]Defense - Defense had 1,064 plays against them last year versus 943 for the offense. Clearly, an imbalance. Just 17 Passing TD’s given up ranks #3.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]c. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]Intangibles – #1 in the league with just over 4 penalties per game and 37 penalty yards per game.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]2. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]What changed?[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]a. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]The Dolphins added Knowshon Moreno to help their ailing running game. WR Damian Williams[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]3. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]What this means – If Moreno can help their anemic run game, so be it. They could use an upgrade at WR too.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]New England Patriots[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]1. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]2013 Baseline[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]a. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]Offense – Nothing spectacular about this #5 ranked unit, yet they are sound in all phases. 10th in passing yards, 9th in rushing yards. 44 total TD’s. All of this with rookie WR’s and an injured TE Gronkowski. Impressive![/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]b. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]Defense - Passing defense gave up 4,137 yards, but on a very low completion rate of 57%. A problem area is against the run. 2,145 yards and a 4.46 per carry average ranks the unit #23 overall. [/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]c. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]Intangibles – 38 of 41 FG tries, 4th best in fewest penalties. 38 turnovers for and 38 against. Solid in all phases of special teams.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]2. [/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]a. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]Little in the FA market. RB Blount and WR Collie departed and the Patriots signed WR LaFell.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]3. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]What this means – Running game is solid, but they clearly need the Gronk back and healthy; unfortunately, he is taking his sweet time, given all the injuries of the past. Thompkins, Dobson, Boyce all a year older. Watch out![/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]New York Jets[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]1. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]2013 Baseline[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]a. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]Offense – 2,158 Rushing yards ranked 6th, but the woeful passing game needs a great deal of improvement. A 55.4% completion rate ranking #32 along with 3,270 passing yards, 13 TD’s and 22 Int’s.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]b. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]Defense - Rushing defense held opponents to 3.35 per carry (#1) and 1,412 rushing yards (#3). The ninth ranked overall defense gave up 4,189 passing yards and 26 TD’s. [/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]c. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]Intangibles – Kick return game in top ten, punt returns in the bottom ten. 31 takeaways produced a ratio of (-6). Two defensive TD’s, but opponents scored six.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]2. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]What changed?[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]a. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]WR Santonio Holmes is gone, as is TE Winslow and WR Cribbs. The Jets have brought in QB Vick, RB Chris Johnson, and WR’s Decker and Ford.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]3. [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]What this means – Clearly, complete upgrades. Question – can they do something with them? Thinking yes, but clearly guarded.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]My AFC Picks for 2014: CIN, DEN, NE[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]Note: The rankings were developed by the author. They consist of a number of offensive and defensive statistical categories and it is the sum total of all of these categories that make up the total ranking.[/SIZE]