FF Drafting theory question (1 Viewer)

[TenTimes]

Let's say Player A's ADP is middle 5th round, but you are almost sure he will produce like a mid 3rd rounder, maybe better. If you draft him in the middle of the 3rd round, and he does indeed produce as a mid 3rd rounder, have you lost value?

A recent draft inspired this question. Player A was my most coveted player in the draft, a young guy who I think will produce as a late 2nd rounder actually, but his ADP was 6th, sometimes 7th round during the summer, and then slowly crept up throughout the preseason to, at the time of my draft, about mid 5th round. I strongly considered taking him mid 3rd round (which would have been the highest I'd seen him drafted this year), but passed. Then he was grabbed just before me in the 4th round and I was a little shocked and upset I'd missed out on my guy, apparently somebody else was as high on him as I and beat me to the punch.

I'm now obviously wishing I had grabbed him in the 3rd round and wondering if it would have been a bad move, even if he had lived up to my expectations.

 

[Dave Stauff]

In this sport, you've got to follow our own drummer a bit. If all you ever did was to draft guys who fell beyond their ADP, you'd have a roster full of good "values", but might not have one player you really felt good about. In the case you mention, the player involved is good "value" to you because your personal projections have him outperforming your projected draft position. Be happy with that and hope you are right in your analysis . . .

 

[SSOG]

It's okay to "reach" a couple of rounds, but there are limits. If you think that Trent Ewards is going to throw for 6,000 yards, you still don't draft him in the first. If you really like a guy, grab him up to two rounds before his ADP. If someone manages to shark you on very rare occasions then that sucks... but you'll gain more roster value on the gambles you win than you'll lose on the very, very rare occasions you lose.

 

[grateful zed]

you never should reach.

simply highlight the players you like and grab whichever one appears to be the most value at the time.

you are increasing your value.

 

[puckalicious]

It's not a reach if the pick performs as you projected. If he doesn't perform AND you drafted him several rounds ahead of his ADP then you reached. Sort of don't know until after the season though. FFL would be boring if everyone drafted strictly to ADP, and lets face it ADP is just that... the AVERAGE position drafted. In any particular draft they could go much higher or lower especially when drafting outside of the top 30 or so.

 

[Craig_MiamiFL]

Hate VBD and have never followed it [done fine]. I think we all have a good idea where players will go [glancing mocks/cheat sheets, etc...]

Grab who you want & enjoy your season. Nothing sucks more than getting stuck with players you don't want to own.

 

[LHUCKS]

It's a mistake to draft third round value in the third round, particularly if there is second round value available.

Normally there should be 2nd round value available if you perform your own independent projections/rankings/strategy. If there isn't you've misjudged runs/how the draft would go.

 

[TenTimes]

It's not a reach if the pick performs as you projected. If he doesn't perform AND you drafted him several rounds ahead of his ADP then you reached. Sort of don't know until after the season though. FFL would be boring if everyone drafted strictly to ADP, and lets face it ADP is just that... the AVERAGE position drafted. In any particular draft they could go much higher or lower especially when drafting outside of the top 30 or so.

Some might argue that even though your 3rd round pick lived up to the position you drafted him, you lost value because you could have had a different 3rd round pick and taken your guy in the 4th round, and that is where you lose value. But you're also taking a risk every time you pass on him.

 

[TenTimes]

It's a mistake to draft third round value in the third round, particularly if there is second round value available. Normally there should be 2nd round value available if you perform your own independent projections/rankings/strategy. If there isn't you've misjudged runs/how the draft would go.

But let's say for the sake of argument that I KNOW my guy will perform like a 2nd rounder, but he has gone in the 5th round of every mock draft I have seen. Am I losing value by drafting this guy in the 3rd round instead of the 4th or 5th?

 

[tonydead]

you never should reach. simply highlight the players you like and grab whichever one appears to be the most value at the time.you are increasing your value.

If you want to win you local league then fine. But, if you want to win big in the main events, you have to reach, and predict those players that are going to make your team different and better than anyone else. Otherwise you have the same team as the other 20 teams that won their leagues. IMHO.

 

[Finless]

One man's value is another man's garbage. If you can get a guy in the 5th don't reach for him in the 2nd. Tell us who you reached for.

 

[EBF]

Sure. I reach all the time. Do what you have to do to get the players you want.

ADP is a rough predictor of where you can expect the players to go. Nothing more. You're not obligated to take someone just because he falls well below his ADP and there's nothing wrong with taking someone well above his ADP if you think he's a must-have.

 

[TenTimes]

One man's value is another man's garbage. If you can get a guy in the 5th don't reach for him in the 2nd. Tell us who you reached for.

That's the thing, I didn't reach, and I missed out on him (another owner took him just before me in the 4th).

 

[TenTimes]

Sure. I reach all the time. Do what you have to do to get the players you want.ADP is a rough predictor of where you can expect the players to go. Nothing more. You're not obligated to take someone just because he falls well below his ADP and there's nothing wrong with taking someone well above his ADP if you think he's a must-have.

Sure, but there is a benefit to taking your player as late as possible, otherwise I would have grabbed Player A with my first round pick.

 

[moleculo]

each player will be drafted above his ADP in roughly half of all drafts. In the other half, he slips.

Just something to think about with regards to ADP.

 

[stevegamer]

each player will be drafted above his ADP in roughly half of all drafts. In the other half, he slips.Just something to think about with regards to ADP.

So many people forget this.ADP is an average, and it moves over time - and it can go up & down. If everyone drafted the best "value" based on amount a guyfell from ADP, everyone would have basically NO value, since everyone would get drafted at AP, since people were not thinking independently.

 

[TenTimes]

each player will be drafted above his ADP in roughly half of all drafts. In the other half, he slips.Just something to think about with regards to ADP.

So many people forget this.ADP is an average, and it moves over time - and it can go up & down. If everyone drafted the best "value" based on amount a guyfell from ADP, everyone would have basically NO value, since everyone would get drafted at AP, since people were not thinking independently.

This is getting away from my original question though. Okay, let's assume that we know Player A will be available in round 5. And we also know that Player A will perform as a 3rd round pick. If I draft Player A in round 3 instead of round 5, have I lost value to my team as a whole?The answer is obviously yes. So does it make sense to draft a guy two rounds ahead of where he is supposed to go, or do you need to just sit tight, hope he falls to where you expect him to fall, if he does then great, if he doesn't then you didn't lose value by drafting a 5th rounder in the 3rd round.

 

[sportsphysio]

each player will be drafted above his ADP in roughly half of all drafts. In the other half, he slips.Just something to think about with regards to ADP.

So many people forget this.ADP is an average, and it moves over time - and it can go up & down. If everyone drafted the best "value" based on amount a guyfell from ADP, everyone would have basically NO value, since everyone would get drafted at AP, since people were not thinking independently.

This is getting away from my original question though. Okay, let's assume that we know Player A will be available in round 5. And we also know that Player A will perform as a 3rd round pick. If I draft Player A in round 3 instead of round 5, have I lost value to my team as a whole?The answer is obviously yes. So does it make sense to draft a guy two rounds ahead of where he is supposed to go, or do you need to just sit tight, hope he falls to where you expect him to fall, if he does then great, if he doesn't then you didn't lose value by drafting a 5th rounder in the 3rd round.

The problem is who determines where he is "supposed" to go. As has been mentioned on these boards, ADP is only a ballpark figure, and we have all seen that during drafts there can be big discrepancies between ADP and where they are actually taken. I personally believe that it is ok to reach for a player you are "certain" will outperform his ADP, because there is a good chance someone else is thinking the same thing, and you may lose out entirely on the player (how many times have we heard on these boards about someone missing out on a targeted player by a few picks). When you are talking 1-2 rounds, I don't think there is a big difference in points/game between those players that make waiting on the targeted player worth the risk. I intend to follow this line of thinking with some of the KR/PR guys in the league who could add 100 points to the FBG projections in return yardage leagues. Our league has fans of some of those teams and are probably targeting the same guys as me; I'll reach for them because they would vault up the rankings if the return yards were included.

 

[Mookie Blaylock]

each player will be drafted above his ADP in roughly half of all drafts. In the other half, he slips.Just something to think about with regards to ADP.

So many people forget this.ADP is an average, and it moves over time - and it can go up & down. If everyone drafted the best "value" based on amount a guyfell from ADP, everyone would have basically NO value, since everyone would get drafted at AP, since people were not thinking independently.

This is getting away from my original question though. Okay, let's assume that we know Player A will be available in round 5. And we also know that Player A will perform as a 3rd round pick. If I draft Player A in round 3 instead of round 5, have I lost value to my team as a whole?The answer is obviously yes. So does it make sense to draft a guy two rounds ahead of where he is supposed to go, or do you need to just sit tight, hope he falls to where you expect him to fall, if he does then great, if he doesn't then you didn't lose value by drafting a 5th rounder in the 3rd round.

You only think I guessed wrong! That's what's so funny! I switched glasses when your back was turned! Ha ha! You fool! You fell victim to one of the classic blunders! The most famous is never get involved in a land war in Asia, but only slightly less well-known is this: never go in against a Sicilian when death is on the line! Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha! Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha! Ha ha ha...

 

[PolishNorbi]

each player will be drafted above his ADP in roughly half of all drafts. In the other half, he slips.Just something to think about with regards to ADP.

So many people forget this.ADP is an average, and it moves over time - and it can go up & down. If everyone drafted the best "value" based on amount a guyfell from ADP, everyone would have basically NO value, since everyone would get drafted at AP, since people were not thinking independently.

This is getting away from my original question though. Okay, let's assume that we know Player A will be available in round 5. And we also know that Player A will perform as a 3rd round pick. If I draft Player A in round 3 instead of round 5, have I lost value to my team as a whole?The answer is obviously yes. So does it make sense to draft a guy two rounds ahead of where he is supposed to go, or do you need to just sit tight, hope he falls to where you expect him to fall, if he does then great, if he doesn't then you didn't lose value by drafting a 5th rounder in the 3rd round.

You only think I guessed wrong! That's what's so funny! I switched glasses when your back was turned! Ha ha! You fool! You fell victim to one of the classic blunders! The most famous is never get involved in a land war in Asia, but only slightly less well-known is this: never go in against a Sicilian when death is on the line! Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha! Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha! Ha ha ha...

Somebody was watching The Princess Bride today.

 

[bonesman]

One man's value is another man's garbage. If you can get a guy in the 5th don't reach for him in the 2nd. Tell us who you reached for.

Sounds like Raymell.

 

[stevegamer]

each player will be drafted above his ADP in roughly half of all drafts. In the other half, he slips.Just something to think about with regards to ADP.

So many people forget this.ADP is an average, and it moves over time - and it can go up & down. If everyone drafted the best "value" based on amount a guyfell from ADP, everyone would have basically NO value, since everyone would get drafted at AP, since people were not thinking independently.

This is getting away from my original question though. Okay, let's assume that we know Player A will be available in round 5. And we also know that Player A will perform as a 3rd round pick. If I draft Player A in round 3 instead of round 5, have I lost value to my team as a whole?The answer is obviously yes. So does it make sense to draft a guy two rounds ahead of where he is supposed to go, or do you need to just sit tight, hope he falls to where you expect him to fall, if he does then great, if he doesn't then you didn't lose value by drafting a 5th rounder in the 3rd round.

Fantasy football is NOT a game that is scored after the draft by teams seeing how much "value" they got - you don't calculate ADP variance & determine a winner.Also, you need to understand if you draft a guy in advance or after where "he is supposed to go" you then alter where he is supposed to go. I've seen people calculating value as: Draft position pick # - ADP pick #. That's basically crap, since it's way too fine a line to put on things. ADP changes. Kevin Jones had value when people drafted him behind his ADP, but now he's out for the year - before the season. How much value is that worth?Example: If you draft a QB a spot behind where he is "supposed to go", but you play in a league where everyone, until the guy before you drafts EXACTLY via ADP, but he already has 2 QB's, did he lose any real value in passing on a 3rd QB for a guy who fits his team more? No.If you examine ADP an have teams take players strictly by ADP, you will et some crewed-up tams who don't have depth at spots, and may even be missing players to play in spots.If we know player A generates stats in a end-of-year draft existing stats league in the 3rd round, then he should go in the 3rd round assuming everyone knows that. If everyone doesn't know that, then you want to take advantage by taking him when you can an getting a good player.Yes you lose value by taking him in the 3rd/4th - but what does the guy you took in the 3rd produce? Not all of them can produe like a true 3rd, since a non-3rd round is producing like one.

 

[Bri]

It's a mistake to draft third round value in the third round, particularly if there is second round value available. Normally there should be 2nd round value available if you perform your own independent projections/rankings/strategy. If there isn't you've misjudged runs/how the draft would go.

lol

 

[SSOG]

Fantasy football is NOT a game that is scored after the draft by teams seeing how much "value" they got - you don't calculate ADP variance & determine a winner.Also, you need to understand if you draft a guy in advance or after where "he is supposed to go" you then alter where he is supposed to go. I've seen people calculating value as: Draft position pick # - ADP pick #. That's basically crap, since it's way too fine a line to put on things. ADP changes. Kevin Jones had value when people drafted him behind his ADP, but now he's out for the year - before the season. How much value is that worth?Example: If you draft a QB a spot behind where he is "supposed to go", but you play in a league where everyone, until the guy before you drafts EXACTLY via ADP, but he already has 2 QB's, did he lose any real value in passing on a 3rd QB for a guy who fits his team more? No.If you examine ADP an have teams take players strictly by ADP, you will et some crewed-up tams who don't have depth at spots, and may even be missing players to play in spots.If we know player A generates stats in a end-of-year draft existing stats league in the 3rd round, then he should go in the 3rd round assuming everyone knows that. If everyone doesn't know that, then you want to take advantage by taking him when you can an getting a good player.Yes you lose value by taking him in the 3rd/4th - but what does the guy you took in the 3rd produce? Not all of them can produe like a true 3rd, since a non-3rd round is producing like one.

I don't think anyone here is measuring value based on drafting people behind their ADP. People are measuring value by assembling the team of players who will do the best IN YOUR PROJECTIONS. If you're facing a choice between two players, and you run the entire draft as if you picked one player or the other, then whichever route gives you the stronger team is the route that presents more value.Consider this: I have inside information beamed directly into my brain from the planet Zorgon that Trent Edwards has been abducted by aliens and replaced with a football-throwing robot from the year 3042. I have studied up on the specifications of the model robot that Edwards has been replaced with and am 100% certain that he's going to throw for 21,136 yards and 426 TDs this year. Armed with that knowledge I go into the draft. I have the #1 overall pick. In scenario 1, I take Trent Edwards with the #1 overall pick (which he is certainly worthy of). Under this scenario, my team is Trent Edwards, Clinton Portis, and some other guys. In scenario 2, I take Adrian Peterson #1 overall, and grab Trent Edwards in the second round. My team is now Trent Edwards, Adrian Peterson, and some other guys. Clearly, my team is better in scenario 2. Regardless of how I have a player projected to perform, value is always maximized by waiting as long as humanly possible before grabbing him, even if it means taking "lesser" players in the meantime. In a perfect scenario, I would draft Trent Edwards exactly one pick before my league-mates would have taken him (stocking up on blue-chip talent in the process).Now, obviously this is a risky game, because if the planet Zorgon beamed the same information directly into someone else's head and that person takes Edwards at pick #2.06, then I'm totally screwed. As a result, I don't want to wait until the last possible second before grabbing Edwards. To minimize risk, I'd want to jump on Edwards just before I could see any rational league-mate grabbing him. If one of my leaguemates was a Bills fan who wore a Trent Edwards jersey to the draft and who had a history of homer picks, I'm taking him #1 overall. If all of my leaguemates are autodrafting based strictly off of ESPN's predraft player rankings, I'm waiting until the 19th round. The key is knowing your league.In reality, though, we *never* know with 100% certainty that a player is going to far exceed the consensus (unless we have access to insider info that isn't readily available to the public, which is becoming rarer and rarer in these days of full access and "instant news"). Say I just have a crazy hunch that Edwards is secretly a late-model QBTron 3000.11.2xVG... but maybe I just ate a bad burrito before bed last night and it all could have been a nightmare, too. In that case, I'm going to temper my willingness to "reach" to secure his services, waiting until only a round or two before the general consensus (maybe 3 rounds if I feel especially strongly or if someone else in the league knows my feelings on the subject, feels similarly, and is looking to Shark me). This method gives me a 95% chance of landing the player. Sure, that's a 5% chance of missing out... but I'm not certain on him in the first place. It's all just a hunch. Over a long enough timeline, the extra "value" you get from waiting a couple rounds (while still winding up with the player) 95% of the time more than outweighs whatever "value" you lose from the 5% of the time that you get "out-reached" and miss out on the player in question.

 

[TenTimes]

In reality, though, we *never* know with 100% certainty that a player is going to far exceed the consensus

said what I was trying to say, but much better. And I think the answer is that yes, if you reach for your sleepers you are losing value, and it's better to risk losing them than take them 2 rounds ahead of their ADP at the time of your draft.

 

[UnknownCoach]

You are asking two opposite questions.

Its ok to reach because the goal is to draft the team YOU want, not the team somebody else wants.

 

[TenTimes]

You are asking two opposite questions.

What are they?

Its ok to reach because the goal is to draft the team YOU want, not the team somebody else wants.

Or is the goal to draft the most valuable team you can get, regardless of whether you like the team or not? Maybe I hate Peyton Manning with a passion. If he falls to the 5th round and I need a QB do I pass on him because I don't 'want' him? Even though the pick would add considerable value to my team? Do I instead take Jay Cutler, the guy I wanted going in to the draft?

 

[kutta]

The real question is whether or not you should give him a reach around.

 

[painkiller]

My opinion:

If a guy almost always goes in the 5th round in mock and real drafts AND you are targeting him, then take him in the 4th (but not before). Of course, it depends on who is available when your 3rd round pick comes up, but most of the time there's other value that you should get instead of a guy who has usually gone in the 5th. Sometimes your guy gets selected.

I usually have a list of several guys I like. Most of the time one or two will fall a round or two past their ADP, at which point, I grab them.

As an example: In a draft last weekend, I had LT2 and wanted to handcuff Sproles. It was the 5th and I figured I could wait another round before getting him based on ADP etc. Well, he went about 5 picks after my 5th rounder. It's OK though because I'd rather have the player I got in the 5th than have taken Sproles and likely lost out on my actual 5th round pick.

 

[TenTimes]

The real question is whether or not you should give him a reach around.

I've always preferred the Feelies

 

[TenTimes]

My opinion:If a guy almost always goes in the 5th round in mock and real drafts AND you are targeting him, then take him in the 4th (but not before). Of course, it depends on who is available when your 3rd round pick comes up, but most of the time there's other value that you should get instead of a guy who has usually gone in the 5th. Sometimes your guy gets selected.I usually have a list of several guys I like. Most of the time one or two will fall a round or two past their ADP, at which point, I grab them.As an example: In a draft last weekend, I had LT2 and wanted to handcuff Sproles. It was the 5th and I figured I could wait another round before getting him based on ADP etc. Well, he went about 5 picks after my 5th rounder. It's OK though because I'd rather have the player I got in the 5th than have taken Sproles and likely lost out on my actual 5th round pick.

Just to be clear, you believe your guy will produce as a 3rd rounder. Do you still wait until the 4th and risk losing him?

 

[kutta]

My opinion:If a guy almost always goes in the 5th round in mock and real drafts AND you are targeting him, then take him in the 4th (but not before). Of course, it depends on who is available when your 3rd round pick comes up, but most of the time there's other value that you should get instead of a guy who has usually gone in the 5th. Sometimes your guy gets selected.I usually have a list of several guys I like. Most of the time one or two will fall a round or two past their ADP, at which point, I grab them.As an example: In a draft last weekend, I had LT2 and wanted to handcuff Sproles. It was the 5th and I figured I could wait another round before getting him based on ADP etc. Well, he went about 5 picks after my 5th rounder. It's OK though because I'd rather have the player I got in the 5th than have taken Sproles and likely lost out on my actual 5th round pick.

Just to be clear, you believe your guy will produce as a 3rd rounder. Do you still wait until the 4th and risk losing him?

Do you also think the guy you actually took in the 3rd will produce as a 3rd rounder? If you think your guy you took in the 3rd could potentially perform like a 1st or 2nd rounder, then you should stick with your original pick.There is no reason to reach for a guy if you think the guy you are taking in their place will outperform them.

 

[TenTimes]

My opinion:If a guy almost always goes in the 5th round in mock and real drafts AND you are targeting him, then take him in the 4th (but not before). Of course, it depends on who is available when your 3rd round pick comes up, but most of the time there's other value that you should get instead of a guy who has usually gone in the 5th. Sometimes your guy gets selected.I usually have a list of several guys I like. Most of the time one or two will fall a round or two past their ADP, at which point, I grab them.As an example: In a draft last weekend, I had LT2 and wanted to handcuff Sproles. It was the 5th and I figured I could wait another round before getting him based on ADP etc. Well, he went about 5 picks after my 5th rounder. It's OK though because I'd rather have the player I got in the 5th than have taken Sproles and likely lost out on my actual 5th round pick.

Just to be clear, you believe your guy will produce as a 3rd rounder. Do you still wait until the 4th and risk losing him?

Do you also think the guy you actually took in the 3rd will produce as a 3rd rounder? If you think your guy you took in the 3rd could potentially perform like a 1st or 2nd rounder, then you should stick with your original pick.There is no reason to reach for a guy if you think the guy you are taking in their place will outperform them.

Very good point, and something I've avoided for the most part in this thread. What would otherwise be available at the 3rd round pick is very important.

 

[ratbast]

In a 12 person draft, the chances of that draft being "avg" is probably pretty slim. Most likely it will go one way or the other. (I am a huge proponent of tiering)

There is the possibility your pick right after your guy went could outproduce your sleeper. There is no answer as none of us "know" our sleeper will perform above his ADP or if we reached.

Trade for the guy!

 

[TenTimes]

Trade for the guy!

Tried. No go. He loves him too.