Finding Rookie Value in Redraft Leagues (1 Viewer)

[RookieBlitz]

http://rookieblitz.com/2009/07/30/rookiebl...ie-draft-guide/

I just posted this article to my blog, and I wanted to get some feedback from the Shark Pool.

In looking at many of the ADP's for the running backs and especially most of the WR's they were going much higher than they could hope to generate any value (You have to love VBD).

I came up with the following players that will exceed their draft positions, or their current ADP matches up nicely.

QB

Matthew Stafford

RB

Knowshon Moreno

Donald Brown

LeSean McCoy

WR

Michael Crabtree

Brian Robiskie

Kenny Britt

One of the biggest surprises was RB Shonn Greene of the Jets going in the 12th, and he is more of a value in the 18th round

 

[stickboy]

http://rookieblitz.com/2009/07/30/rookiebl...ie-draft-guide/

I just posted this article to my blog, and I wanted to get some feedback from the Shark Pool.

In looking at many of the ADP's for the running backs and especially most of the WR's they were going much higher than they could hope to generate any value (You have to love VBD).

I came up with the following players that will exceed their draft positions, or their current ADP matches up nicely.

QB

Matthew Stafford

RB

Knowshon Moreno

Donald Brown

LeSean McCoy

WR

Michael Crabtree

Brian Robiskie

Kenny Britt

One of the biggest surprises was RB Shonn Greene of the Jets going in the 12th, and he is more of a value in the 18th round

Without any explanation of why you think some rookies will underperform or overperform relative to their ADP these lists are useless.

 

[jdswan922]

http://rookieblitz.com/2009/07/30/rookiebl...ie-draft-guide/

I just posted this article to my blog, and I wanted to get some feedback from the Shark Pool.

In looking at many of the ADP's for the running backs and especially most of the WR's they were going much higher than they could hope to generate any value (You have to love VBD).

I came up with the following players that will exceed their draft positions, or their current ADP matches up nicely.

QB

Matthew Stafford

RB

Knowshon Moreno

Donald Brown

LeSean McCoy

WR

Michael Crabtree

Brian Robiskie

Kenny Britt

One of the biggest surprises was RB Shonn Greene of the Jets going in the 12th, and he is more of a value in the 18th round

Without any explanation of why you think some rookies will underperform or overperform relative to their ADP these lists are useless.

I agree, you need some analysis. I disagree with you on a number of these, particularly Greene who is expected to be more than just a goalline back. That alone is worth the 12th round anyway in many leagues.

 

[RookieBlitz]

Thank you for the feedback.

I should have included a disclaimer that I'd gone over projections and outlooks for each player in great length in prior articles

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

Agree on the RBs, not so much on the others, except maybe Robiskie in start 3 WR PPR leagues

 

[bcr8f]

Crabtree's holding out, wants #3 money and the team is taking a tough stand.

Nicks and Robiske may be the best WR's this year.

 

[thriftyrocker]

I think you are underestimating Harvin. I think he will make a big impact immediately. Around 900 total yards and 8 TDs. Which is a better year than any rookie WR last year save Eddie Royal.

I don't think there's any way Britt or Nicks approach 900 total yards, and you have them projected as same round value. PPR might add a little more weight to Britt and Nicks, but you didn't mention that. Actually JMO, I think Britt and Nicks will marinate on the bench for a while behind the incumbents whereas Harvin will be integrated as soon as he signs.

I think Robiskie is at best the 3rd option behind Edwards and either Heiden or Rucker. Considering you can get the 3rd option on Philly, NE, GB, SD, etc. in the 12th round, I find it hard to believe Robiskie will have that kind of value.

I think the most important thing in evaluating rookies for redraft leagues is what no name RBs have value. What teams have a void at RB and drafted guys in later rounds hoping to get lucky. I think Scott is the best RB on Cincinnati. There are quotes from Cincy's defensive players that he is Chris Johnson-like. I have no problem throwing a low teens round pick on him now and that might increase if he does well (or Benson looks terrible). Other lower round guys like Jennings and Coffee are more handcuffs, but are on teams that run a lot. There is a void in Cleveland too, but it seems Harrison not Davis will fill it.

 

[citsalp]

I think Cedrick Peerman belongs in this conversation...McG. is done...Rice takes over next year leaving whom? I must be missing something...what is it?

 

[citsalp]

opps redraft my bad

 

[EBF]

I think you are underestimating Harvin. I think he will make a big impact immediately. Around 900 total yards and 8 TDs. Which is a better year than any rookie WR last year save Eddie Royal. I don't think there's any way Britt or Nicks approach 900 total yards, and you have them projected as same round value. PPR might add a little more weight to Britt and Nicks, but you didn't mention that. Actually JMO, I think Britt and Nicks will marinate on the bench for a while behind the incumbents whereas Harvin will be integrated as soon as he signs.I think Robiskie is at best the 3rd option behind Edwards and either Heiden or Rucker. Considering you can get the 3rd option on Philly, NE, GB, SD, etc. in the 12th round, I find it hard to believe Robiskie will have that kind of value.I think the most important thing in evaluating rookies for redraft leagues is what no name RBs have value. What teams have a void at RB and drafted guys in later rounds hoping to get lucky. I think Scott is the best RB on Cincinnati. There are quotes from Cincy's defensive players that he is Chris Johnson-like. I have no problem throwing a low teens round pick on him now and that might increase if he does well (or Benson looks terrible). Other lower round guys like Jennings and Coffee are more handcuffs, but are on teams that run a lot. There is a void in Cleveland too, but it seems Harrison not Davis will fill it.

Agree on Harvin. I think he will make an immediate impact ala DeSean Jackson.Agree on Britt. He won't make a dent this year and I have questions about his long term prospects.Disagree on Nicks. He's the best WR on the Giants and he could conceivably produce right out of the gate.