Sweet and Sour - who are you leaning towards/away from in your drafts? (1 Viewer)

[Stompin' Tom Connors]

As we near the starting line for the season, who are you souring on? Who are you getting sweeter on? And as you make decisions in your drat, how has this sweetening/souring affected who you draft?

My draft is going off this weekend, and camp positional battles, injuries, and what we've seen in the preseason start to come to bear in how I might adjust my own feelings about certain players.

We have a large league (14 teams) PPR, and I will likely have a middle draft slot. In the first round, my thoughts had always been that if David Johnson falls to me, I am going to take him, even knowing that there may be a larger drop-off between him and the next back compared to some WRs and the next WR that are typically there (OBJ/Hill). Reason being that my league is normally really RB-heavy and I'd rather have an RB1 I can rely on.

As time has gone on, I have begun to sour a little on DJ. Yes, he will be the focal point of the offense, but having watched ARI in preseason (focusing on the 1s) and reading camp reports, I am not confident the O-line IN AZ is going to be solid, and Murray seems to run really hot and cold . 

To me, this likely means teams may be more likely to stack the box and pressure the pocket -- bad news for DJ. 

So souring on DJ makes me lean more heavily towards taking a top WR at that spot (Hill or OBJ), and hoping a guy like Mixon or Cook drop to me in the 2nd (and if not, going with a guy like Chubb,  Derrick Henry or Kerryon Johnson).

Some other examples of players I am souring on, and who I might select as a sweeter option:

• The aforementioned Derrick Henry. I think his walking boot is a concern, but he seems he will be ready for wk 1 without concern. Still, can't help but feel like despite the talent, TEN has QB issues that will stifle the team, sputter the O, and cause Henry to have another solid if not spectacular season. So souring on him despite his higher ADP and VBD value, and instead might reach slightly for a guy I am sweetening more on, Chris Carson who might be ranked lower, but who I trust a little more than Henry at this point in terms of usage and even upside (despite potentially splitting with Penny).
  
• Starting to sour slightly on Sony Michel and Aaron Jones. I think Sony will get his work but can see this devolve into a committee if the other backs stay healthy. Don't get me wrong, Jones is a darling of a 3-down back but in PPR, a guy like Marlon Mack, who I am sweetening on in comparison, is a similar 3 down back who may hold more value in PPR as he is targeted a little more consistently/evenly than Jones.
  
• Starting to sour a little on Tyler Boyd and the whole CIN WR corps. With AJ gone, I think others have the ability to step up -- but they will still have Dalton under center who is another year older, and I just sense this is an offense that could really struggle in the passing game, whether with Dalton, or Driskel or Finley. At that spot, sweetening on Chris Godwin.
  
• I see a lot of people giving Alshon Jeffrey a higher ADP than a guy like Dede Westbrook. I am actually sweetening on both of them but think Westbrook, while carrying more risk, is the more valuable commodity. Come the 5th round, seems like I should be jumping on Alshon there and see if Dede slips.
  
• Starting to sour a little on Peyton Barber. Not because I don't think he is better than Ron Jones, but in the games I've seen Jones looked decidedly more quick and hungry and running with purpose than Barber, so can see this be a full blown committee with Jones having a decent shot at taking the lead role
  
• I am really souring on Cam Newton -- give me Goff instead. You can't predict injury, but Cam's health is a concern, and I don't trust him to play smart and protect himself, or not fold like a cheap card table if hit hard.
  
• Souring on Golden Tate -- injury is obvious a concern, as is the suspension, and I can't believe I think a guy like Valdes-Scantling, Keke Coutee (if he recovers from his ankle issue), or even Josh Gordon might be a sweeter take here.
  
• Souring on Adrian Peterson. He will continue to amaze me and defy all logic of age...until he doesn't. I don't hold much stock in Darius Guice either, but if Guice and Chris Thompson (who I see as the best value on the Skins in a PPR and someone I am getting sweeter on) stay healthy, can't see ADP's load being meaningful enough to take him at his ADP compared to a guy like Matt Breida.
  

Any thoughts you had about the players mentioned in terms of you being sweeter or sourer on? What other players are beginning to slightly turn on you like week-old yogurt left out of the fridge for a day? What guys have suddenly become more saccharine for you given their performance, situation, etc. as we near the season?

 

[Tanner9919]

nice list! ^^

soured on these players - or they've already been on my do not draft list:

Aaron Jones - 3 knee injuries, super lightweight RB. missed a ton of time since turning pro. Now suddenly people put him as the #15 RB? how is this possible? LeFleur is going to choke that GB offense down , they're going to be as effective as the Miami Dolphins were under  A. Gase. The Packers have looked inept in preseason, and Rodgers is already hurt - again.

Derrick Henry

Josh Gordon - can we stop the love fest please? dude has 2 suspensions, one voluntary departure ( last season). caught 51 or more balls in a single season just once. his avg per year in ALL other seasons is about 41 recs/yr. why would you even consider this guy? he's a wr 4/5, at best. 

Damien Williams - has never been 'the guy' , not going to start now.

P. Lindsay - just don't know what to make of the Denver backfield. 

Keenan Allen - down with an ankle, out the remainder of preseason. this guy is a potato chip. he's made of glass. he lasted the past 2 seasons unscathed, but I'm not willing to risk spending high on a player who's been brittle in the past. Hunter Henry is back, M. Williams has emerged. Is Allen going to come close to last years stats?

R. Penny - Carson has been killing it in preseason, Penny is rb #2. 

Tyler Boyd - love the potential , but Cincy is down 3 o-linemen. could be a disaster in the making.Vegas forecasting Bengals to be one of the 2-3 worst teams in the NFL this season.

Players I'm sweeter on:

1. Marlon Mack - going to be a stud. he was a workhorse back last season, and down the stretch he outperformed guys like Nick Chubb on a weekly basis. he was money in the playoffs, too. F. Reich has been dropping subtle hints that the Colts are about to take the training wheels off of this offense and let 'er rip. Foreman just went on the IR. Its the Mack show early and often.

2. Tyler Lockett - I'd put him in the WR top 10 list. He's been amazing so far in preseasons, from reports and games.

3. Robby Anderson

4. DJ Moore - he's going to take a step up, probably approaching 80 recs this season. Follow the Norv Turner offenses enough you know the trends. strong WR1, strong 3-down RB 

5. Calvin Ridley - He's poised to take a huge leap forward, and eventually take over as the #2 WR alongside JJ. the transition is going to happen sooner rather than later.

6. Chris Carson

7. James White in PPR leagues

8. D. Montgomery - warming up to him. Has looked fairly decent in preseason.

9. Ty Montgomery - you know Bell will flake out or get hurt. 

10. Duke Johnson - I don't think it is long before he becomes the #1 RB and they run him in to the ground. 

 

[EBF]

I had my redraft this weekend. Some of the values that jumped out at me based on ADP (PPR formats):

QB Carson Wentz - A top PPG option in 2017. Should be fully healthy and they have enough weapons to support him.

QB Andrew Luck - Another guy capable of a top 3-5 finish in any given year.

RB Josh Jacobs - A three down back with plus skills as a runner AND receiver. Remember when Gruden had Cadillac as a rookie? Ran him into the ground. Jacobs will get the rock.

RB Mark Ingram - Perfect Raven. High character, toughness, and effort. A few years splitting work in NO have people underestimating his ceiling. The Ravens will be running the ball, and Ingram can have a late career renaissance here like a better version of what Benson was in Cincy.

RB Kenyan Drake - He is the best skill position player on the team, so it really just comes down to durability and workload.

RB Derrius Guice - Deep in the draft you're not getting a sure thing, so aim for upside. Guice has a chance to be this year's Chubb for patient owners.

The Buffalo running game is cheap now and you could consider locking up that tandem. Collectively you may get a RB2 out of it.

WR AJ Green - He is still the best WR on the team and when he gets healthy he can plant his flag. You need to have depth to accommodate his absence though.

WR Allen Robinson - Should get a lot of targets by default and with modest improvements in volume and efficiency, a WR2 finish is conceivable.

WR Jarvis Landry - I'm a little dicey on this one because generally I'm not a fan of hugely inefficient players who are reliant on volume, but here is my thinking: Mayfield will be better and will be throwing often, and Beckham's presence will allow Landry's per-target-efficiency to improve. A solid depth play available at WR4 prices.

WR Deebo Samuel - I'm driving the hype train here. Think he can have a big rookie year that mirrors JuJu's 2017. Possibly slow out of the blocks, but once they realize what they have, they might not be able to keep the ball out of his hands. He can affect the game at every level of the field.

WR Quincy Enunwa - Anderson is more explosive, but also a lot more expensive. Enunwa is what he is: a modest possession WR in the mold of Cotchery. He will get targets by default because they have few weapons and if his body doesn't break down he can be a nice depth play to cover bye weeks.

For flyers I would look at Gallup, Tre'Quan Smith, Marquise Brown, Diontae Johnson, James Washington, and AJ Brown. All young guys with decent draft pedigrees who could conceivably take the leap. Wouldn't want to count on any of them as more than a WR5 though, as they are unlikely to hit.

TE Mark Andrews - I'm looking at this team and I can't figure out who is going to catch the ball. Their WRs are terrible except the rookie Brown, who is a bit of an unknown. Andrews was a playmaker in college and had a good rapport with Lamar in their rookie year. I also really like Hurst as a prospect, but Andrews seems to be the guy to own there. Realistically, their WR group is so bad that we may see a lot of both TEs.

TE Tyler Eifert - Oh boy. He's made of glass, but when he plays his talent is off the charts. It's a bit ugly because they've added more weapons since his breakout season so long ago. There are more mouths to feed now with Ross, Mixon, and Boyd all commanding some targets in addition to Green. All that said, he's still a much more dynamic weapon than other TEs available in his ADP range.

These are the main guys I honed in on for my redraft and I was able to get most of them.

 

[zamboni]

Great thread.

One guy I am warming up to is Jordan Reed. Sure the dude just cannot stay on the field, but when he does, he has - and still can - put up big numbers at an increasingly barren position. Who else is going to catch passes In Washington? Exactly. By most accounts, he looks strong in camp.

By now, most folks have likely soured on Reed, so you can probably get him late.

 

[[icon]]

Sour: 

Rodgers / Brees / Trubisky 

Bell / Jones / Michel / 

AB / Hilton / Cooper / Kupp

Kittle / Ebron

Sweet:

Watson Wentz Jackson Winston 

Cook Carson Jacobs Montgomery Sanders Harris

Juju Edelman Lockett Godwin Ridley Moore Anderson Kirk DJax Pettis Allison 

Howard Henry Mcdonald walker reed Andrews Everett 

 

[Stompin' Tom Connors]

Great thread.

One guy I am warming up to is Jordan Reed. Sure the dude just cannot stay on the field, but when he does, he has - and still can - put up big numbers at an increasingly barren position. Who else is going to catch passes In Washington? Exactly. By most accounts, he looks strong in camp.

By now, most folks have likely soured on Reed, so you can probably get him late.

Great call on Reed -- I think he has virtually disappeared from all radars, and if I miss out on a guy like Engram/Hunter Henry, I think it's just as good to wait until late rounds to grab Reed than take a middling TE like Rudolph or even a dice roll on guys like Hooper or McDonald taking the next step, and hope Reed stays healthy.

He may indeed be the brightest spot on that offense.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

Great thread.

One guy I am warming up to is Jordan Reed. Sure the dude just cannot stay on the field, but when he does, he has - and still can - put up big numbers at an increasingly barren position. Who else is going to catch passes In Washington? Exactly. By most accounts, he looks strong in camp.

By now, most folks have likely soured on Reed, so you can probably get him late.

Every year I look for positions I can short so I can load up elsewhere. But you need later round guys like Reed to do that. 149 adp per F. Pros, so in a 14 team league still there as late as the 11th round.

 

[NYRAGE]

I had my redraft this weekend. Some of the values that jumped out at me based on ADP (PPR formats):

QB Carson Wentz - A top PPG option in 2017. Should be fully healthy and they have enough weapons to support him.

QB Andrew Luck - Another guy capable of a top 3-5 finish in any given year.

RB Josh Jacobs - A three down back with plus skills as a runner AND receiver. Remember when Gruden had Cadillac as a rookie? Ran him into the ground. Jacobs will get the rock.

RB Mark Ingram - Perfect Raven. High character, toughness, and effort. A few years splitting work in NO have people underestimating his ceiling. The Ravens will be running the ball, and Ingram can have a late career renaissance here like a better version of what Benson was in Cincy.

RB Kenyan Drake - He is the best skill position player on the team, so it really just comes down to durability and workload.

RB Derrius Guice - Deep in the draft you're not getting a sure thing, so aim for upside. Guice has a chance to be this year's Chubb for patient owners.

The Buffalo running game is cheap now and you could consider locking up that tandem. Collectively you may get a RB2 out of it.

WR AJ Green - He is still the best WR on the team and when he gets healthy he can plant his flag. You need to have depth to accommodate his absence though.

WR Allen Robinson - Should get a lot of targets by default and with modest improvements in volume and efficiency, a WR2 finish is conceivable.

WR Jarvis Landry - I'm a little dicey on this one because generally I'm not a fan of hugely inefficient players who are reliant on volume, but here is my thinking: Mayfield will be better and will be throwing often, and Beckham's presence will allow Landry's per-target-efficiency to improve. A solid depth play available at WR4 prices.

WR Deebo Samuel - I'm driving the hype train here. Think he can have a big rookie year that mirrors JuJu's 2017. Possibly slow out of the blocks, but once they realize what they have, they might not be able to keep the ball out of his hands. He can affect the game at every level of the field.

WR Quincy Enunwa - Anderson is more explosive, but also a lot more expensive. Enunwa is what he is: a modest possession WR in the mold of Cotchery. He will get targets by default because they have few weapons and if his body doesn't break down he can be a nice depth play to cover bye weeks.

For flyers I would look at Gallup, Tre'Quan Smith, Marquise Brown, Diontae Johnson, James Washington, and AJ Brown. All young guys with decent draft pedigrees who could conceivably take the leap. Wouldn't want to count on any of them as more than a WR5 though, as they are unlikely to hit.

TE Mark Andrews - I'm looking at this team and I can't figure out who is going to catch the ball. Their WRs are terrible except the rookie Brown, who is a bit of an unknown. Andrews was a playmaker in college and had a good rapport with Lamar in their rookie year. I also really like Hurst as a prospect, but Andrews seems to be the guy to own there. Realistically, their WR group is so bad that we may see a lot of both TEs.

TE Tyler Eifert - Oh boy. He's made of glass, but when he plays his talent is off the charts. It's a bit ugly because they've added more weapons since his breakout season so long ago. There are more mouths to feed now with Ross, Mixon, and Boyd all commanding some targets in addition to Green. All that said, he's still a much more dynamic weapon than other TEs available in his ADP range.

These are the main guys I honed in on for my redraft and I was able to get most of them.

bonus points for the Cotchery reference

 

[BobbyLayne]

Sweeter:

QB - Cam, Cousins

RB - Singletary, Darwin Thompson

WR - Kirk, Coutee, Washington

TE - Reed

Soured:

QB - Mahomes, Baker, Luck,

RB - Mack, Henry, Murray

WR - Godwin, Lockett, Anderson, Mike Williams 

TE - Ebron, Njoku

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

Sweeter:

QB - Cam, Cousins

RB - Singletary, Darwin Thompson

WR - Kirk, Coutee, Washington

TE - Reed

Soured:

QB - Mahomes, Baker, Luck,

RB - Mack, Henry, Murray

WR - Godwin, Lockett, Anderson, Mike Williams 

TE - Ebron, Njoku

What's wrong with Mike Williams?  ADP concern?  TD dependence?  I love his auction price.

Every single player on your sweeter list is an avoid for me....so I'm guessing you are sweeter on them as under-valued players?

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I’ll go by position.

Players rising in my estimation (sweet) since start of preseason: 

• RB: Montgomery. Cohen’s best schtick is a gadget player, and the team reportedly loves Montgomery. I could see a top 6 season from a guy who’s currently a 4th rounder if he gets a similar workload to what they tried to give Howard over the years. Bears are going to run a lot and play great defense. That’s a recipe for success for Montgomery. 

Runner up: Duke Johnson - returned to practice, will have a couple weeks to learn the playbook & get comfy with Watson. With that shaky OL he’s at least going to be a potential 60+ reception RB, and if Miller flails, he might well become the lead dog. What a steal he’d be if that happens. 

• WR: AR15 - another year removed from injury, another year in that offense - I could see AR15 with an 85/1000+/7 type year, which is a bargain at his ADP. 

Honorable mention: DThomas. He’s the kind of player the Pats love to resurrect. Came off the PUP today, so they don’t expect him to miss much time. He says he’ll be ready week 1. You can spend a last round pick on him & possibly get a WR3/flex/BYE week production.  And if not, very little risk involved. 

• TE: Vance McDonald is going after almost all the top TEs, and he should have a really solid Lpw-end TE1 season. The early hype was that he’d suck up a ton of targets lost by others, then the naysayers pumped the brakes on that & his ADP fell. I think the truth is somewhere in the middle, but at his current ADP, he’s a great value if you miss the big guns. 

• QB: Winston. His price tag is so affordable for a guy with a huge arm, great weapons & a terrible defense. He’s going to throw a lot, and he’ll likely have 30-40 TDs. If he can keep his head on straight (reports of his increased maturity since fatherhood are inspiring) then he’s an absolute steal. 

Players falling (sour)

• RB: Conner - he faded at the end of last season. Snell & Samuels will both have roles. I’m not convinced he’s a lock for 1400+ again. I could be wrong but spending a top 11 pick on the dude carries more risk than most of the 1st round. Imma pass. 

• WR: Landry - with Beckham in town, and Higgins, and Chubb, and all the other mouths to feed, plus a very solid defense I’m just not sure the volume will be there to justify Landry’s ADP. He’s a volume player and if that’s not there, he might be a weekly JAG with the occasional spike & the occasional stinker. Hell, I’m a little worried about OBJ as well, but I’m pretty sure he’ll get his. Feels like Landry might be a little feast of famine this season.

• TE - Ebron - until I know what’s up  with Luck for real imma fade all Colts except Mack a little. 

• QB - Andrew Luck seems obvious because of the injury, but he’s still going relatively high for my tastes. So that’s the obvious pick. But I’ll go with  Russell Wilson. I know he has some weapons at WR, but I feel like Seattle is going to run run run until Daddy takes the t-bird away. And while I hate to predict injury, I’m just gonna day that for a QB who runs a lot, Wilson has been remarkably able to avoid the big hit. The law of averages catches up with everyone eventually, as any fan of the Final Destination films can tell you. Feels like Wilson was supposed to have been on that roller coaster that crashed & a pallet rack is finna fall onto him any minute now. I don’t think he’ll be terrible, I just don’t think he’ll be as valuable as he’s been in years past relative to his ADP. He’s always felt a little fluky to me. I know he’s  good, but it feels like he does it with smoke & mirrors. Mostly it’s about how much the Hawks wanna run tho. 

 

[BobbyLayne]

What's wrong with Mike Williams?  ADP concern?  TD dependence?  I love his auction price.

Every single player on your sweeter list is an avoid for me....so I'm guessing you are sweeter on them as under-valued players?

Only sour on his ADP.

(ASIDE - That’s true of most of my list. I don’t fall in love with players and defend them no matter what nor do I hate players/coaches. Every player has value at a certain price; for me in redraft, whether I think his ADP makes him a good value compared to players taken around him.)

I was completely on board a year ago he was a lock for ten TDs.

This year I expect some TD % regression with Hunter back but I also think his targets will go up from 66 to 95ish. So his receptions might climb from 43 to say 60-65 (29 more targets), yardage should top 900, so that’s 45 points, but if he scores 4-5 less TDs he’s still borderline low end WR2/high WR3. He’s WR25 at ADP 60, and I just like the upside of DJ Moore or a healthy Alshon Jeffrey more to be mid-WR2. Feels like I’m drafting Mike right at his 2019 ceiling. But love the player.

The Chargers ran 945 plays with 512 PA, both outside the top 25. They had a top ten offense because they faced fewer third downs and by design had a lot of explosive plays for long TDs. I don’t see Rivers going back to 550-575 PA so it’s harder for me to project the high volume he would need to get to 75 catches or 1K (TDs being somewhat variable.)