First Round Running Backs and early success (1 Viewer)

[Righetti]

I've had a discussion about first round backs.. It seems to me that these guys are usually pretty good early and if they are not good in the first 2 years, they often do not become anything at allI went over the first round RB's over the last few years.. and most of them put up some decent numbers within the first 2 years.the guys that did not put up good numbers have become pretty bad backs.

1998 Rd Sel# Player Pos. School 1 5 Curtis Enis RB Penn State 1 9 Fred Taylor RB Florida 1 18 Robert Edwards RB Georgia 1 29 John Avery RB Mississippi

1999 Rd Sel# Player Pos. School 1 4 Edgerrin James RB Miami 1 5 Ricky Williams RB Texas

2000 Rd Sel# Player Pos. School 1 5 Jamal Lewis RB Tennessee 1 7 Thomas Jones RB Virginia 1 11 Ron Dayne RB Wisconsin 1 19 Shaun Alexander RB Alabama 1 31 Trung Canidate RB Arizona

2001 Rd Sel# Player Pos. School 1 5 LaDainian Tomlinson RB Texas Christian 1 23 Deuce McAllister RB Mississippi 1 27 Michael Bennett RB Wisconsin

2002 Rd Sel# Player Pos. School 1 16 William Green RB Boston College 1 18 T.J. Duckett RB Michigan State

2003 Rd Sel# Player Pos. School 1 23 Willis McGahee RB Miami 1 27 Larry Johnson RB Penn State

2004 Rd Sel# Player Pos. School 1 24 Steven Jackson RB Oregon State 1 26 Chris Perry RB Michigan 1 30 Kevin Jones RB Virginia Tech

2005 Rd Sel# Player Pos. School 1 2 Ronnie Brown RB Auburn 1 4 Cedric Benson RB Texas 1 5 Carnell Williams RB Auburn

TJ Duckett, Trung Canidate and Willie Green have all pretty much failed. Michael Bennett has too.. The point is that after a couple of years in the league the first round backs who will become something, usually have had success by year 2.. the only exception I can see is Thomas Jones.

 

[aposulli]

the only exception I can see is Thomas Jones.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Larry Johnson?Obviously he was in a different circumstance as a guy who didnt really get the opportunity till the starter went down.

Maybe we will add Chris Perry to that list soon too... ::crossingfingers::

 

[Righetti]

the only exception I can see is Thomas Jones.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Larry Johnson?Obviously he was in a different circumstance as a guy who didnt really get the opportunity till the starter went down.

Maybe we will add Chris Perry to that list soon too... ::crossingfingers::

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Larry Johnson had a big 2nd Half in 2004 and a HUGE year in 2005

during his last six games:

10/43/1

20/118/1 plus 2/56/1

7/104/2 plus 2/19

30/151/2

25/70/2 plus 4.43/0

17/46/1 plus 8/115/1

those are HUGE games

in 2004 you already saw the talent.. it was just the opportunity he was lacking

 

[trader jake]

the only exception I can see is Thomas Jones.

ricky williams didn't do much his first two seasons either

 

[Ozymandias]

the only exception I can see is Thomas Jones.

ricky williams didn't do much his first two seasons either
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

1400 total yards and 9 td's his second year (in 10 games) was hardly chopped liver.

 

[Patoons]

Cedric Benson is on his way to be added to the Duckett group. Unfortunate.

 

[Lott's Fingertip]

William Green had 1000 combined yards and 6 TDs in year one.

 

[trader jake]

the only exception I can see is Thomas Jones.

ricky williams didn't do much his first two seasons either
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

1400 total yards and 9 td's his second year (in 10 games) was hardly chopped liver.
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

my bad...i remember he crushed fantasy teams come playoff time after he got hurt (didn't recall the production...wow)

 

[Righetti]

William Green had 1000 combined yards and 6 TDs in year one.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I thought of this also.. but in his case he had some sucess and then never really did again (see Michael Bennett in year 2)..the point of the thread was actually to show that if you are going to have success in the NFL as a first round back then this back will have to be good early....

My point is that if you have a running back on your roster who was drafted in the first round of the NFL and he has not produced yet by year 2.. then his ship may have sailed.

There is a entire other thread which could be about early success leading to later failure...

 

[Patoons]

William Green had 1000 combined yards and 6 TDs in year one.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I thought of this also.. but in his case he had some sucess and then never really did again (see Michael Bennett in year 2)..the point of the thread was actually to show that if you are going to have success in the NFL as a first round back then this back will have to be good early....

My point is that if you have a running back on your roster who was drafted in the first round of the NFL and he has not produced yet by year 2.. then his ship may have sailed.

There is a entire other thread which could be about early success leading to later failure...

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

So we're saying if you have two successful seasons, you're in the clear. However, if you have underperformed or had one ray of light and otherwise underperformed, it may be time to write the player off? Isn't the proof in the pudding?

 

[Righetti]

William Green had 1000 combined yards and 6 TDs in year one.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I thought of this also.. but in his case he had some sucess and then never really did again (see Michael Bennett in year 2)..the point of the thread was actually to show that if you are going to have success in the NFL as a first round back then this back will have to be good early....

My point is that if you have a running back on your roster who was drafted in the first round of the NFL and he has not produced yet by year 2.. then his ship may have sailed.

There is a entire other thread which could be about early success leading to later failure...

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

So we're saying if you have two successful seasons, you're in the clear. However, if you have underperformed or had one ray of light and otherwise underperformed, it may be time to write the player off? Isn't the proof in the pudding?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I guess what I'm saying is that if a first round NFL back does not produce by year two.. Chances are he won't ever produce.

 

[perry147]

William Green had 1000 combined yards and 6 TDs in year one.

I thought of this also.. but in his case he had some sucess and then never really did again (see Michael Bennett in year 2)..the point of the thread was actually to show that if you are going to have success in the NFL as a first round back then this back will have to be good early....

My point is that if you have a running back on your roster who was drafted in the first round of the NFL and he has not produced yet by year 2.. then his ship may have sailed.

There is a entire other thread which could be about early success leading to later failure...

So we're saying if you have two successful seasons, you're in the clear. However, if you have underperformed or had one ray of light and otherwise underperformed, it may be time to write the player off? Isn't the proof in the pudding?

I guess what I'm saying is that if a first round NFL back does not produce by year two.. Chances are he won't ever produce.

I agree with you in most cases but there are exceptions to every rule.OJ

+--------------------------+-------------------------+

| Rushing | Receiving |

+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+

| Year TM | G | Att Yards Y/A TD | Rec Yards Y/R TD |

+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+

| 1969 buf | 13 | 181 697 3.9 2 | 30 343 11.4 3 |

| 1970 buf | 8 | 120 488 4.1 5 | 10 139 13.9 0 |

Tiki Barber

| Rushing | Receiving |

+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+

| Year TM | G | Att Yards Y/A TD | Rec Yards Y/R TD |

+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+

| 1997 nyg | 12 | 136 511 3.8 3 | 34 299 8.8 1 |

| 1998 nyg | 16 | 52 166 3.2 0 | 42 348 8.3 3 |

Bo Jackson

+--------------------------+-------------------------+

| Rushing | Receiving |

+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+

| Year TM | G | Att Yards Y/A TD | Rec Yards Y/R TD |

+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+

| 1987 rai | 7 | 81 554 6.8 4 | 16 136 8.5 2 |

| 1988 rai | 10 | 136 580 4.3 3 | 9 79 8.8 0 |

Stephen Davis

+--------------------------+-------------------------+

| Rushing | Receiving |

+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+

| Year TM | G | Att Yards Y/A TD | Rec Yards Y/R TD |

+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+

| 1996 was | 12 | 23 139 6.0 2 | 0 0 0.0 0 |

| 1997 was | 14 | 141 567 4.0 3 | 18 134 7.4 0 |



Ahman Green

+--------------------------+-------------------------+

| Rushing | Receiving |

+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+

| Year TM | G | Att Yards Y/A TD | Rec Yards Y/R TD |

+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+

| 1998 sea | 16 | 35 209 6.0 1 | 3 2 0.7 0 |

| 1999 sea | 14 | 26 120 4.6 0 | 0 0 0.0 0 |

Chris Warner

+--------------------------+-------------------------+

| Rushing | Receiving |

+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+

| Year TM | G | Att Yards Y/A TD | Rec Yards Y/R TD |

+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+

| 1990 sea | 16 | 6 11 1.8 1 | 0 0 0.0 0 |

| 1991 sea | 16 | 11 13 1.2 0 | 2 9 4.5 0

 

[BoulderBob]

Cedric Benson is on his way to be added to the Duckett group. Unfortunate.

We will see, but it appears as though Jones and Rosenhaus are angling for a trade. If he sits out through training camp, the Bears will gladly hand over the job to their 35 million dollar man.

 

[Couch Potato]

Perry, the subject is FIRST round RBs.

Green, Davis, Tiki were lower picks.

Bo was playing baseball and came over to football only after the season ended, so that's a different situatiion - take a look at his ypc; he was a stud in those early years too.

Chris Warner? Are you getting him mixed up with Curt Warner the Sea RB?

 

[SSOG]

TJ Duckett, Trung Canidate and Willie Green have all pretty much failed. Michael Bennett has too..

The point is that after a couple of years in the league the first round backs who will become something, usually have had success by year 2.. the only exception I can see is Thomas Jones.

Wait a second, was I the only one here who missed the "T.J. Duckett is a failure" memo?

 

[SproutDaddy]

Perry, the subject is FIRST round RBs.

Perry was a FIRST round rb. He was even picked before KJ!

 

[SproutDaddy]

TJ Duckett, Trung Canidate and Willie Green have all pretty much failed. Michael Bennett has too..

The point is that after a couple of years in the league the first round backs who will become something, usually have had success by year 2.. the only exception I can see is Thomas Jones.

Wait a second, was I the only one here who missed the "T.J. Duckett is a failure" memo?

Obviously.

 

[perry147]

Perry, the subject is FIRST round RBs.

Green, Davis, Tiki were lower picks.

Bo was playing baseball and came over to football only after the season ended, so that's a different situatiion - take a look at his ypc; he was a stud in those early years too.

Chris Warner? Are you getting him mixed up with Curt Warner the Sea RB?

Curt Warner is correct I miss typed.3-time Pro Bowler: 1983, 1986, 1987.

I just did Pro Bowl running backs not carring about when they were drafted.

 

[perry147]

Perry, the subject is FIRST round RBs.

Perry was a FIRST round rb. He was even picked before KJ!

I think he meant me - not Chris Perry.

 

[Couch Potato]

Chris Warner? Are you getting him mixed up with Curt Warner the Sea RB?

I see he meant Chris Warren. OK.Warren wasn't a 1st round RB either. He was a 4th rounder.

It is MORE likely that lower round guys take off after a couple of years than a 1st rounder to do so. They generally have to wait for an opportunity to fall to the. Righetti's point is that the 1st rounders get that chance right away and do something with it if they are going to make it. His position seems sound from what research I've done.

 

[Couch Potato]

Perry, the subject is FIRST round RBs.

Perry was a FIRST round rb. He was even picked before KJ!

I think he meant me - not Chris Perry.

Correct.

 

[Patoons]

Chris Warner?  Are you getting him mixed up with Curt Warner the Sea RB?

I see he meant Chris Warren. OK.Warren wasn't a 1st round RB either. He was a 4th rounder.

It is MORE likely that lower round guys take off after a couple of years than a 1st rounder to do so. They generally have to wait for an opportunity to fall to the. Righetti's point is that the 1st rounders get that chance right away and do something with it if they are going to make it. His position seems sound from what research I've done.

Benson owners getting nervous?

 

[Couch Potato]

Perry, the subject is FIRST round RBs.

Green, Davis, Tiki were lower picks.

Bo was playing baseball and came over to football only after the season ended, so that's a different situatiion - take a look at his ypc; he was a stud in those early years too.

Chris Warner? Are you getting him mixed up with Curt Warner the Sea RB?

Curt Warner is correct I miss typed.3-time Pro Bowler: 1983, 1986, 1987.

I just did Pro Bowl running backs not carring about when they were drafted.

Warner had a great early career except for his injury year.

+--------------------------+-------------------------+                 |          Rushing         |        Receiving        |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+| Year  TM |   G |   Att  Yards    Y/A   TD |   Rec  Yards   Y/R   TD |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+| 1983 sea |  16 |   335   1449    4.3   13 |    42    325   7.7    1 || 1984 sea |   1 |    10     40    4.0    0 |     1     19  19.0    0 || 1985 sea |  16 |   291   1094    3.8    8 |    47    307   6.5    1 || 1986 sea |  16 |   319   1481    4.6   13 |    41    342   8.3    0 || 1987 sea |  12 |   234    985    4.2    8 |    17    167   9.8    2 || 1988 sea |  16 |   266   1025    3.9   10 |    22    154   7.0    2 || 1989 sea |  16 |   194    631    3.3    3 |    23    153   6.7    1 || 1990 ram |   7 |    49    139    2.8    1 |     0      0   0.0    0 |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+|  TOTAL   | 100 |  1698   6844    4.0   56 |   193   1467   7.6    7 |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+

 

[Righetti]

Chris Warner?  Are you getting him mixed up with Curt Warner the Sea RB?

I see he meant Chris Warren. OK.Warren wasn't a 1st round RB either. He was a 4th rounder.

It is MORE likely that lower round guys take off after a couple of years than a 1st rounder to do so. They generally have to wait for an opportunity to fall to the. Righetti's point is that the 1st rounders get that chance right away and do something with it if they are going to make it. His position seems sound from what research I've done.

this is exactly my point.. a guy like Rudi Johnson may not get an opportunity for a few years...but if a team invest a first round pick in a player..then they willl give him an opportunity early to prove himself.... sometimes they have some success (Bennett, Willie Green) and then fail.. but there are very few places where they fail first and then succeed..by year 2 you usually know

 

[Righetti]

Perry, as CouchPotato said.. this is only about first round picks

 

[SSOG]

Perry, as CouchPotato said.. this is only about first round picks

But Chris Perry *WAS* a first round pick. Sorry, couldn't resist.

 

[Couch Potato]

Perry, as CouchPotato said.. this is only about first round picks

But Chris Perry *WAS* a first round pick. Sorry, couldn't resist.

LOL... I thought about doing that schtik again too... but it was beneath me SSOG.

 

[aposulli]

I guess what I'm saying is that if a first round NFL back does not produce by year two.. Chances are he won't ever produce.

I agree with you in most cases but there are exceptions to every rule.OJ

+--------------------------+-------------------------+

| Rushing | Receiving |

+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+

| Year TM | G | Att Yards Y/A TD | Rec Yards Y/R TD |

+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+

| 1969 buf | 13 | 181 697 3.9 2 | 30 343 11.4 3 |

| 1970 buf | 8 | 120 488 4.1 5 | 10 139 13.9 0 |

Stephen Davis

+--------------------------+-------------------------+

| Rushing | Receiving |

+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+

| Year TM | G | Att Yards Y/A TD | Rec Yards Y/R TD |

+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+

| 1996 was | 12 | 23 139 6.0 2 | 0 0 0.0 0 |

| 1997 was | 14 | 141 567 4.0 3 | 18 134 7.4 0 |



Ahman Green

+--------------------------+-------------------------+

| Rushing | Receiving |

+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+

| Year TM | G | Att Yards Y/A TD | Rec Yards Y/R TD |

+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+

| 1998 sea | 16 | 35 209 6.0 1 | 3 2 0.7 0 |

| 1999 sea | 14 | 26 120 4.6 0 | 0 0 0.0 0 |

I included Larry Johnson before only because he didn't succeed right away, since he was a backup. Ditto Chris Perry.Ahman Green can also be thrown into this category because he was a backup to Ricky Watters.

So far I'd only consider OJ Simpson and Stephen Davis as examples of 1st round late bloomers.