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Flash in the pan VS Trend (1 Viewer)

wgoldsph

Footballguy
At what point in the regular season do you consider someone's play to be indicative of a larger trend rather than a single flash in the pan or a slow start?  When do you sub out a "name" player for the 15th round backup who's going crazy on your bench, or spend all your ww bucks on the no name guy who snagged five tds?  On the flip side how long do you keep starting an early round pick who's began the season slow?

Figured since we're going to be facing this in a few weeks I'd see how long the rest of you jump on wagons and off ships.

 
Simple. If they keep performing, it's a trend.

None of us know until we see it happen, but better to be first to the ww vs miss out. Worst case, you drop them for someone else or trade for an upgrade to your team while that player is hot

 
At what point in the regular season do you consider someone's play to be indicative of a larger trend rather than a single flash in the pan or a slow start?  When do you sub out a "name" player for the 15th round backup who's going crazy on your bench, or spend all your ww bucks on the no name guy who snagged five tds?  On the flip side how long do you keep starting an early round pick who's began the season slow?

Figured since we're going to be facing this in a few weeks I'd see how long the rest of you jump on wagons and off ships.


 For me personally, I have always been a ROLL OUT YOUR STUDS kind of guy week after week.  But there does come a point where younger players emerge, and start to develop into elite fantasy assets.

Thats the tricky part, when do you start firing up the hot new rookie, and bench the older established guys.....?

 Everyone seems to have their own personal threshold. But FOR ME , it takes an awful lot for me to start benching a "top 15-ish kind of guy" for the new hotness.

The best example I can give you, is Odell Beckham Jr's rookie year.   Somewhere around week 6 or week 7 was when he finally started going off. (from memory he was injured some of the early season)

I ended up having him in 1 league.  I can't recall who I ultimately benched to slot him in (I mostly play start 3 WRs leagues), but I DO REMEMBER it was somewhere around week 10 week 11 or so before I finally pulled the trigger, and never looked back.

I'm usually hesitant to start anyone over a typically strong producer/known commodity.  Who wants to say "I benched stud X for the new rookie going off, and he helped me lose"........?   I don't want to be that guy.

That usually means I am on the safer play short term, but it definitely means I'm often slow to get on board to the new hot WW guys or rookies.

 TZM

 
 For me personally, I have always been a ROLL OUT YOUR STUDS kind of guy week after week.  But there does come a point where younger players emerge, and start to develop into elite fantasy assets.

Thats the tricky part, when do you start firing up the hot new rookie, and bench the older established guys.....?

 Everyone seems to have their own personal threshold. But FOR ME , it takes an awful lot for me to start benching a "top 15-ish kind of guy" for the new hotness.

The best example I can give you, is Odell Beckham Jr's rookie year.   Somewhere around week 6 or week 7 was when he finally started going off. (from memory he was injured some of the early season)

I ended up having him in 1 league.  I can't recall who I ultimately benched to slot him in (I mostly play start 3 WRs leagues), but I DO REMEMBER it was somewhere around week 10 week 11 or so before I finally pulled the trigger, and never looked back.

I'm usually hesitant to start anyone over a typically strong producer/known commodity.  Who wants to say "I benched stud X for the new rookie going off, and he helped me lose"........?   I don't want to be that guy.

That usually means I am on the safer play short term, but it definitely means I'm often slow to get on board to the new hot WW guys or rookies.

 TZM
Yes you are. But maybe you didn’t need try. My favorite picks were OBJ rookie year. And Kamara rookie year. Last year I got Robinson. My favorite this year? TLance and TMarshall. 

 

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